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Just slap a digital clock on it and call it the "New and Improved" PECOTA.
I like Dunn to continue to beat his forecasts (as he has his entire career) and easily eclipse 600 HR.
One reason for this is that the Cardinals have actively tried to "set their rotation for big series". They've juggled around to the point of giving Suppan starts against weak competition just so they can put their big 3 against the Reds. In fact, during that 5-1 stretch against Cincinnati, the Reds faced Carp twice, Wainwright twice, and Garcia twice.
Of course in doing this, the weaker teams get to feast on the likes of Lohse, Suppan, and Westbrook.
Great column, Steven.
Is there a good chance that Alonso is the Reds starting left fielder opening day 2011?
Segura plays for Cedar Rapids, not QC.
The way he was kicking reminded me of a four year old throwing a tantrum at bedtime.
The Cardinals do well with 13th round third basemen.
Travis, it isn't the scouting language, and it's not just this low-level look. I've been noticing this for weeks.
It's things like explaining who Jesus Montero is, or providing a very generic update on Donavan Tate. BP subscribers are typically high-information types who don't need this.
That said, I don't really care. KG is providing excellent dailies to subscribers 4 times a week, and I get it if he felt re-tooling the 10 pack was in order.
I feel as though the 10-packs have been "dumbed down" more recently to make them more accessible to the ESPN audience.
Any chance Alonso gets put in left field... could he really be worse than Dunn or Gomes.
If the Brewers trade Fielder, why not put Gamel at 1B? Do they have any better alternatives?
When Freese comes back the Cards will likely just move Lopez to second if they are looking to upgrade on Skip.
More articles like this, please.
He will turn 23 on September 3rd. On his web page on milb it says that Brown was taken in the 20th round and I feel like that's what I've read from other sources as well.
You definitely picked the wrong Cardinals announcer. Mike Shannon is the most entertaining radio announcer I have ever heard. Heh Heh Heh...
I thought the same thing. Just sort of . . . stopped.
Fun read nonetheless.
Oquendo may also be the best infield coach in the majors, fwiw. He's helped Brendan Ryan and Albert Pujols develop into GG-caliber fielders, and helped make David Eckstein, Skip Schumaker, and Troy Glaus tolerable. They all rave about the help he's given them.
Do you think Wilmer got promoted to try and jump start him?
Vizcaino was promoted to the Carolina league.
Turner's not from Texas.
So. . . what is the new hitter card build intended to fix?
We're all paying for this stuff, Dave. I understand that BP is going through growing pains trying to make the system better and more efficient. And I'm confident that once this is over, we're going to end up with a better PECOTA. I get that.
But in the interim, some of us are entering fantasy drafts with hundreds of dollars in entry fees. And we pay BP for a quality product. I appreciate the updates, but, at minimum, an acknowledgment of what needs to be fixed would be appreciated. We've all figured out on our own that it has to do with outlier projections and multiyear projections, but an acknowledgment from BP as to what on Earth is going on would help out your paying customers.
One of the problems with this process has been the perceived lack of transparency. You come onto the blog and tell us you're working on it, but you don't say what the problems are. You owe it to paying customers to give us a little more detail.
If people didn't buy fantasy subscriptions to this site, I'd be with you. BP makes money on PECOTA having a reputation as more reliable and thorough than other projection systems. That's just a fact.
And a lot of that goes beyond PFM. I look to PECOTA to get an idea on upside, as I'm in a long term keeper league. And I don't have any faith in the long-term projections this year. They simply still do not even pass the smell test.
Is that enough to make me cancel my subscription? No. BP still has great content all over the place. It's just kind of irksome that I spent all winter waiting for this stuff to come out, and when it did, it didn't have any more reliable data than MARCEL or some other such one-year projection. Luckily my main draft isn't until April. I'm just hoping the kinks are worked out by then.
I buy BP for the articles, but if I bought a fantasy subscription this year, I'd be seriously irked. Drafts are already taking place, and this stuff is still buggy?
Not saying he's not a potential stud. But how high-certainty can he be given the circumstances?
You have Chacin at 3-star with "good third starter" ceiling, and he's far, far closer than Castro. If Castro projects into a 2-3 slot at best, why would you rather have him than Chacin?
Sorry, but I don't understand how a 21 year old pitcher who's only been through Low-A can be a 5 star prospect if he doesn't have ace potential.
Thirded. I have (thankfully) only had to contact Customer Service twice, and both times the responses were timely, friendly, and helpful.
I don't think the roll-over glossary text for SIERA is long enough, guys.
Honestly, though, great work. This is neat stuff.
Never mind I see it now. When you add them up its over 400.
There has to be a mistake on Craig... 14 Hr in 79 PA?
Every incentive now to fess up, but he didn't have to do it like this. He didn't have to personally call the Maris family and apologize. Or call the parent of a kid who was killed by steroids and apologize to him.
But he did. He's obviously contrite, and of all the confessions I've heard from a public figure, this strikes me as the most honest, sincere, and heartfelt. He's completely owning what he did. That's exceedingly rare, and he should be commended for it. Lots of people make mistakes, but very few own up to them like this.
Great post. I remember when I found out about his stroke a few years ago, and how I felt. I doubt any other journalist would have caused that reaction.
What I don't get is the hubris it takes to wrtie such a self-serving piece on a subscription site adn think the readers care. I like Keith Law, but that was one of the more annoying blogposts I've ever seen. If you want to whine to people about having to (gasp) travel to Indy in December, start a LiveJournal.
LaRue, Ankiel, Glaus, Lugo, Thurston are the 5. David Freese and Khalil Greene each make more sense for a roster spot than Todd Wellemeyer. At least you can imagine when they could possibly be used.
Decent FA 2B
Decent FA SS
Sorry, but without a strong pitching staff, it's hard to see that lineup as especially competitive. Not horrible anymore, and maybe good enough to break the sub-.500 streak, but in terms of amount of talent, it doesn't look that different than some of the recent 4th place Reds teams.
They got Tabata last year. KG was just looking at 2009 transactions here.
I disagree. Not only is it in Boras' personal best interests, but more importantly it's in his clients' collective best interests for him to have a different risk analysis than any one individual client.
For example, Strasburg himself stands to make more money right now because of Boras' actions with Hochevar, Drew, Scherzer, and a host of others. It's probably a primary reason Strasburg hired him.
And if Boras can make an example out of Strasburg, Bryce Harper and a hundred other clients will make a lot more money.
So it isn't about pure self-interest.
For the record, I don't think it will come to this. I think Strasburg signs, and for an awful lot of money.
Great column, Joe.
One worry I have though, is that Boras has something of a conflict of interest here.
He is in a position to be far less risk averse with this negotiation than his client.
It could turn out to be GREAT for Boras if Strasburg turns down $20 million and goes and pitches for St. Paul, and falls to the Yankees or some other team willing to give him $35 million next year.
However should something go horribly wrong for Strasburg during his year in the wilderness, Boras can weather it. He has more money than God, benefits from a longview approach, and look, here comes Bryce Harper to try the same game next year and try to remold draft negotiations for the foreseeable future, and make his bevy of clients, collectively, a lot more money.
But Strasburg himself is screwed in this case. The first $20mm is way more important to someone in his financial situaion than the next $15mm. If a deal is presented that can make him financially comfortable for life, it would be tough for a young pitcher to risk that.
I'm not saying that Boras WOULD forsake his client's best interests in favor of the longview. And I'm not saying Strasburg would necessarily let him. But in a negotiation like this, the incentives for risk aversion are extremely unequal for Boras and Strasburg. Something to think about.
Many commentators have objected to the comparison or modification (as by somewhat or very) of unique, often asserting that a thing is either unique or it is not. Objections are based chiefly on the assumption that unique has but a single absolute sense, an assumption contradicted by information readily available in a dictionary.
This is probably the 12th article I've read on the Halladay sweepstakes, and by far the most interesting.
This is why I give you people money.
If Greinke does something remarkable this year (say, a sub 2.00 ERA) does he wrest the title from these 3?
I think that's underrating Locke quite a bit. Scouts see him as a potential #2. He hasn't put it together yet, and maybe never will, but he's not without value as a prospect.
McLouth's Eqa the past three seasons: .296, .304, .299. ML average for CF this year is .267.
One reason for this is his baserunning. He's stolen 64 bases and been caught 5 times in his career.
Sure, he's stretched at CF, but he's good enough to stick and his bat (and baserunning) more than makes up for it.
He's not a star, but I don't see a star in the package the Braves gave up, either.
So, yeah, all in all, I'd agree that this is a good all around trade.
Sorry but this seems an odd way to judge. It makes an enticing headline and/or an attractive photo way too important.
If the people who actually read Byron's article liked it better than others, voting him off seems wrong.
Ignore my last comment. I'm an idiot, and hadn't read the rules for this round.
The thesis ("Ortiz may needs more than confidence: the solution could be to hit more ground balls.") is backwards.
Ortiz shouldn't try to hit more groundballs. He should try to fix his swing, and if he does, you'll see more groundballs as a side effect. I think that's her point for the final 90% of the column, but she tried to wrap it up too neatly in the intro.
Still, a strong column. I learned something, and it was well-written.
I subsribe to BP for unique insight, great baseball writing, and some of the best analysis on the web.
If a contestant is bringing something new or unique to the table, he better be one heck of a writer to compensate.
This was a rehash of old analysis, and frankly you can find this on any number of free blogs, like fangraphs. BP can do better.
I just want to know when Goldman will start writing about the Yankees.
Agreed. It's also impossible to determine a baseline. Even if you could accurately sort out the "clean" players from the "dirty", as Nate notes, some of the players with the most economic incentive to cheat are going to be MLB replacement-level.
Sounds a little like Skip Schumaker
Will, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems you're saying the Jays suck at identifying and avoiding pitchers who are going to get hurt.
1. This is far from Romero's first injury.
2. Kind of Will's point. He was a severe injury risk and Ricciardi signed him anyway.
4. See #2.
5. Will doesn't seem to be talking about workloads.
He didn't say "A must be responsible for B". He said it might. And given the Jays tendency to pick up fragile pitchers, I'm inclined to agree.
While both can lead to other injuries, I don't think you can aggravate fatigue.
Kazmir may not get much better, but I think you're underselling him.
ERA+ of 116, 142, 130, and 127, despite facing the Yankees and Sox a combined 32 times in that span. (BTW, a 3.22 ERA against those teams).
No, he doesn't make it very far into games, but isn't a deep rotation exactly where you want someone fitting his profile? Shields, Garza, and eventually Price can ensure that the bullpen isn't overtaxed, and Kazmir can come in and be a weapon for 6 innings every five days.
He isn't the second coming of Johan Santana, but he's a damned good pitcher. Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but I don't think contenders should trade top-tier (or close to it) talent.
I don't think a "divisional beat" would match the vital intimacy. I'm a Cards fan, and what I value about my gamers is that Goold (and yes, Leach. MLB.com is already providing an alternative) are tied to the team. They get the clubhouse, they can pick up on moods, and while that may not be vital for analysis or understanding on the field play, it still runs through their recaps and helps imbue the season with some drama and humanity.
I still think the gamer has value.
If you read them every day, and your city is blessed enough to have good beat writers, they can provide a season-long narrative chronicling a team's ups and downs in a way that a team-specific blog or national baseball site like ESPN or BP cannot.
Am I the only one seeing the full article twice?
"but a double-elimination format falls down when the quality of competition is as unequal as it is in these groups"
How is this different than divisional play? One of the three best teams in baseball is going to be out of the playoffs due to unequal competition.
Not justifying the practice, but it is pervasive in essentially every facet of sport.
Joe, I like the idea of qualifiers as well. Right now, South Africa has no reason to get excited. They didn't do anything to get in other than have a large population that seemed to be a good opportunity for MLB to market towards.
If they qualified, though, that's an achievement. And achievements are excited and get people interested. Chattanooga earned the right to a #16 seed last night, and they have virtually no shot to even win a game in the tournament. But I would have loved to have been on that campus last night.
Rick Ankiel struck out 194 in 175 IP in his age 20 season with a 134 ERA+
Sweet, now I can confuse you and Goldstein in person.
Not only is 2 ROYs a small sample size, but it\'s a clear case of selection bias.
The best rookie in each league (determined after the fact) is almost certainly going to be a player who exceeded his forecast.
If we similarly judged PECOTA only by looking at MVPs we\'d probably see a list of players who performed in their 90th percentile projection or even better.
Oh that\'s cool, the 538 guy writes for BP too!
Joe Sheehan will not be moving to Soccer Prospectus, we now know.
Fitz\'s Root Beer in St. Louis. Ships anywhere in the US.
I agree with shankweather. Things seem to have gotten a little too insular here. I would love for BP writers to engage in the kinds of open source sabermetric discussions taking place on the Book and Fangraphs.
Fantastic news. Congrats to all.
Tigers 7/148, 12/03
Neyer presents a pretty good retort in his blog.
Will, anything on The Colby and Boggs for Matt Cain?
I\'m really not assuming anything. Any deal involves risk. Matt Cain is probably a pretty serious injury risk at this point. The least risky thing about Rasmus is his defense. He has plus speed and is a plus defender in center field, that is easy to project to the majors. As I said I would throw in a lesser free agent to sweeten the deal, such as Mitchell Boggs or Jess Todd. For the Giants a deal for a high upside propect like Rasmus makes sense. Colby isn\'t really that risky for a prospect either he ahd a rough couple of months starting out at AAA and then turned it on. Unfortunately he went down with a minor knee injury and the Cardinals played it conservatively. Point is, If I\'m the Giants I\'m making a deal more like the Maybin for Cabrera deal where I can get a cost sontrolled player who will help my team when I really need it.
2 years vs. 5 with Colby at a premium position. 2009 really shouldn\'t matter to the Giants since they are unlikely to contend. With the Giants much improved minor league system (Keith Law has it at number 5) they should be in a better position to contend for a championship in the future. Realisitically they probably don\'t even have much of a chance in 2010. So I would much rather have a CF for the next 5 years with Grady Sizemore upside if I\'m the Giants than a power hitting first basement for 2.
Except thsat Colby is cost controlled, so they would have him cheaply for years to come.
Matt Cain for Colby Rasmus and maybe a lesser prospect. The Cardinals have a system with a lot of outfield or hitting prospects and low upside pitchers. They could use a guy like Cain in the short and long term. Larussa would like the deal because it improves out immediate chances and their have been rumors of discord between Colby and the Cardinals. The Giants get a top ten prospect at a premium posisiton who is able to contribute immediately and cost controlled for a long time.
How much confidence can the Cardinals have that Carpenter will be able to stay healthy and contribute next season?
The Astros made the world series in 05, all though they had lateseason surges in 04, 05, 06, and now 08.