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Clonod
76 comments | 118 total rating | 1.55 average rating
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Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Just slap a digital clock on it and call it the "New and Improved" PECOTA.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I like Dunn to continue to beat his forecasts (as he has his entire career) and easily eclipse 600 HR.

Sep 17, 2010 10:58 AM on Dunn Enough?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 7

One reason for this is that the Cardinals have actively tried to "set their rotation for big series". They've juggled around to the point of giving Suppan starts against weak competition just so they can put their big 3 against the Reds. In fact, during that 5-1 stretch against Cincinnati, the Reds faced Carp twice, Wainwright twice, and Garcia twice. Of course in doing this, the weaker teams get to feast on the likes of Lohse, Suppan, and Westbrook.

Sep 17, 2010 8:25 AM on Cardinals vs. Reds?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

WORD. Great column, Steven.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Is there a good chance that Alonso is the Reds starting left fielder opening day 2011?

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Segura plays for Cedar Rapids, not QC.

Aug 16, 2010 10:42 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

The way he was kicking reminded me of a four year old throwing a tantrum at bedtime.

Aug 13, 2010 9:04 AM on 996
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 5

The Cardinals do well with 13th round third basemen.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Travis, it isn't the scouting language, and it's not just this low-level look. I've been noticing this for weeks. It's things like explaining who Jesus Montero is, or providing a very generic update on Donavan Tate. BP subscribers are typically high-information types who don't need this. That said, I don't really care. KG is providing excellent dailies to subscribers 4 times a week, and I get it if he felt re-tooling the 10 pack was in order.

Aug 09, 2010 11:13 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: -1

I feel as though the 10-packs have been "dumbed down" more recently to make them more accessible to the ESPN audience.

Aug 09, 2010 10:33 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Any chance Alonso gets put in left field... could he really be worse than Dunn or Gomes.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

If the Brewers trade Fielder, why not put Gamel at 1B? Do they have any better alternatives?

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

When Freese comes back the Cards will likely just move Lopez to second if they are looking to upgrade on Skip.

Jul 19, 2010 11:08 AM on Monday 10 Pack
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 7

More articles like this, please.

Jul 16, 2010 10:15 AM on Scouting Casey Kelly
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

He will turn 23 on September 3rd. On his web page on milb it says that Brown was taken in the 20th round and I feel like that's what I've read from other sources as well. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=CF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502126

Jul 12, 2010 9:07 AM on Brown's Day Ends Early
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

You definitely picked the wrong Cardinals announcer. Mike Shannon is the most entertaining radio announcer I have ever heard. Heh Heh Heh...

Jul 02, 2010 11:50 AM on MLB Radio Broadcasters
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I thought the same thing. Just sort of . . . stopped. Fun read nonetheless.

Jun 30, 2010 2:47 PM on Who's an All-Star?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Oquendo may also be the best infield coach in the majors, fwiw. He's helped Brendan Ryan and Albert Pujols develop into GG-caliber fielders, and helped make David Eckstein, Skip Schumaker, and Troy Glaus tolerable. They all rave about the help he's given them.

Jun 29, 2010 12:54 PM on Manager Prospects
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Do you think Wilmer got promoted to try and jump start him?

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Vizcaino was promoted to the Carolina league.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Turner's not from Texas.

Apr 12, 2010 6:15 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 9

So. . . what is the new hitter card build intended to fix? We're all paying for this stuff, Dave. I understand that BP is going through growing pains trying to make the system better and more efficient. And I'm confident that once this is over, we're going to end up with a better PECOTA. I get that. But in the interim, some of us are entering fantasy drafts with hundreds of dollars in entry fees. And we pay BP for a quality product. I appreciate the updates, but, at minimum, an acknowledgment of what needs to be fixed would be appreciated. We've all figured out on our own that it has to do with outlier projections and multiyear projections, but an acknowledgment from BP as to what on Earth is going on would help out your paying customers. One of the problems with this process has been the perceived lack of transparency. You come onto the blog and tell us you're working on it, but you don't say what the problems are. You owe it to paying customers to give us a little more detail. Thanks, Chris

Mar 20, 2010 12:48 AM on Weekly PECOTA Update
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 5

If people didn't buy fantasy subscriptions to this site, I'd be with you. BP makes money on PECOTA having a reputation as more reliable and thorough than other projection systems. That's just a fact. And a lot of that goes beyond PFM. I look to PECOTA to get an idea on upside, as I'm in a long term keeper league. And I don't have any faith in the long-term projections this year. They simply still do not even pass the smell test. Is that enough to make me cancel my subscription? No. BP still has great content all over the place. It's just kind of irksome that I spent all winter waiting for this stuff to come out, and when it did, it didn't have any more reliable data than MARCEL or some other such one-year projection. Luckily my main draft isn't until April. I'm just hoping the kinks are worked out by then.

Mar 13, 2010 5:03 PM on PECOTA Update
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

I buy BP for the articles, but if I bought a fantasy subscription this year, I'd be seriously irked. Drafts are already taking place, and this stuff is still buggy?

Mar 13, 2010 11:14 AM on PECOTA Update
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: -1

Not saying he's not a potential stud. But how high-certainty can he be given the circumstances? You have Chacin at 3-star with "good third starter" ceiling, and he's far, far closer than Castro. If Castro projects into a 2-3 slot at best, why would you rather have him than Chacin?

Feb 25, 2010 7:16 PM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Sorry, but I don't understand how a 21 year old pitcher who's only been through Low-A can be a 5 star prospect if he doesn't have ace potential.

Feb 25, 2010 2:50 PM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Thirded. I have (thankfully) only had to contact Customer Service twice, and both times the responses were timely, friendly, and helpful.

Feb 18, 2010 3:48 PM on June 3-9
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 5

I don't think the roll-over glossary text for SIERA is long enough, guys. Honestly, though, great work. This is neat stuff.

Feb 10, 2010 10:48 AM on Part 3
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Never mind I see it now. When you add them up its over 400.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

There has to be a mistake on Craig... 14 Hr in 79 PA?

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 10

Every incentive now to fess up, but he didn't have to do it like this. He didn't have to personally call the Maris family and apologize. Or call the parent of a kid who was killed by steroids and apologize to him. But he did. He's obviously contrite, and of all the confessions I've heard from a public figure, this strikes me as the most honest, sincere, and heartfelt. He's completely owning what he did. That's exceedingly rare, and he should be commended for it. Lots of people make mistakes, but very few own up to them like this.

Jan 11, 2010 6:12 PM on Heading Out
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Great post. I remember when I found out about his stroke a few years ago, and how I felt. I doubt any other journalist would have caused that reaction.

Dec 09, 2009 2:11 PM on Out West
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

What I don't get is the hubris it takes to wrtie such a self-serving piece on a subscription site adn think the readers care. I like Keith Law, but that was one of the more annoying blogposts I've ever seen. If you want to whine to people about having to (gasp) travel to Indy in December, start a LiveJournal.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

LaRue, Ankiel, Glaus, Lugo, Thurston are the 5. David Freese and Khalil Greene each make more sense for a roster spot than Todd Wellemeyer. At least you can imagine when they could possibly be used.

Oct 05, 2009 4:40 PM on Madness
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Milledge McCutchen Alvarez Laroche Sanchez Tabata/Hernandez Decent FA 2B Decent FA SS Sorry, but without a strong pitching staff, it's hard to see that lineup as especially competitive. Not horrible anymore, and maybe good enough to break the sub-.500 streak, but in terms of amount of talent, it doesn't look that different than some of the recent 4th place Reds teams.

Sep 08, 2009 9:31 AM on Pirates Adrift
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

They got Tabata last year. KG was just looking at 2009 transactions here.

Sep 08, 2009 9:25 AM on Pirates Adrift
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

I disagree. Not only is it in Boras' personal best interests, but more importantly it's in his clients' collective best interests for him to have a different risk analysis than any one individual client. For example, Strasburg himself stands to make more money right now because of Boras' actions with Hochevar, Drew, Scherzer, and a host of others. It's probably a primary reason Strasburg hired him. And if Boras can make an example out of Strasburg, Bryce Harper and a hundred other clients will make a lot more money. So it isn't about pure self-interest. For the record, I don't think it will come to this. I think Strasburg signs, and for an awful lot of money.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 15

Great column, Joe. One worry I have though, is that Boras has something of a conflict of interest here. He is in a position to be far less risk averse with this negotiation than his client. It could turn out to be GREAT for Boras if Strasburg turns down $20 million and goes and pitches for St. Paul, and falls to the Yankees or some other team willing to give him $35 million next year. However should something go horribly wrong for Strasburg during his year in the wilderness, Boras can weather it. He has more money than God, benefits from a longview approach, and look, here comes Bryce Harper to try the same game next year and try to remold draft negotiations for the foreseeable future, and make his bevy of clients, collectively, a lot more money. But Strasburg himself is screwed in this case. The first $20mm is way more important to someone in his financial situaion than the next $15mm. If a deal is presented that can make him financially comfortable for life, it would be tough for a young pitcher to risk that. I'm not saying that Boras WOULD forsake his client's best interests in favor of the longview. And I'm not saying Strasburg would necessarily let him. But in a negotiation like this, the incentives for risk aversion are extremely unequal for Boras and Strasburg. Something to think about.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

From Merriam-Webster: Many commentators have objected to the comparison or modification (as by somewhat or very) of unique, often asserting that a thing is either unique or it is not. Objections are based chiefly on the assumption that unique has but a single absolute sense, an assumption contradicted by information readily available in a dictionary.

Aug 12, 2009 11:01 AM on Midweek Update
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 10

This is probably the 12th article I've read on the Halladay sweepstakes, and by far the most interesting. This is why I give you people money.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

If Greinke does something remarkable this year (say, a sub 2.00 ERA) does he wrest the title from these 3?

Jun 11, 2009 1:50 PM on Nominating the Best
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I think that's underrating Locke quite a bit. Scouts see him as a potential #2. He hasn't put it together yet, and maybe never will, but he's not without value as a prospect.

Jun 04, 2009 11:31 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

McLouth's Eqa the past three seasons: .296, .304, .299. ML average for CF this year is .267. One reason for this is his baserunning. He's stolen 64 bases and been caught 5 times in his career. Sure, he's stretched at CF, but he's good enough to stick and his bat (and baserunning) more than makes up for it. He's not a star, but I don't see a star in the package the Braves gave up, either. So, yeah, all in all, I'd agree that this is a good all around trade.

Jun 04, 2009 10:51 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Sorry but this seems an odd way to judge. It makes an enticing headline and/or an attractive photo way too important. If the people who actually read Byron's article liked it better than others, voting him off seems wrong.

May 27, 2009 9:52 AM on Catching Up
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

Ignore my last comment. I'm an idiot, and hadn't read the rules for this round.

May 26, 2009 10:36 AM on Getting Hip with FIP
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

The thesis ("Ortiz may needs more than confidence: the solution could be to hit more ground balls.") is backwards. Ortiz shouldn't try to hit more groundballs. He should try to fix his swing, and if he does, you'll see more groundballs as a side effect. I think that's her point for the final 90% of the column, but she tried to wrap it up too neatly in the intro. Still, a strong column. I learned something, and it was well-written.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: -2

I subsribe to BP for unique insight, great baseball writing, and some of the best analysis on the web. If a contestant is bringing something new or unique to the table, he better be one heck of a writer to compensate. This was a rehash of old analysis, and frankly you can find this on any number of free blogs, like fangraphs. BP can do better.

May 26, 2009 9:54 AM on Getting Hip with FIP
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

I just want to know when Goldman will start writing about the Yankees.

May 18, 2009 10:22 AM on Game Four
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Agreed. It's also impossible to determine a baseline. Even if you could accurately sort out the "clean" players from the "dirty", as Nate notes, some of the players with the most economic incentive to cheat are going to be MLB replacement-level.

May 08, 2009 10:39 AM on The Steroids Game
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Sounds a little like Skip Schumaker

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: -2

Will, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems you're saying the Jays suck at identifying and avoiding pitchers who are going to get hurt.

May 05, 2009 10:14 AM on Down, Out?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

1. This is far from Romero's first injury. 2. Kind of Will's point. He was a severe injury risk and Ricciardi signed him anyway. 4. See #2. 5. Will doesn't seem to be talking about workloads. He didn't say "A must be responsible for B". He said it might. And given the Jays tendency to pick up fragile pitchers, I'm inclined to agree.

May 05, 2009 9:45 AM on Down, Out?
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

While both can lead to other injuries, I don't think you can aggravate fatigue.

May 01, 2009 3:35 PM on October 15-21
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 5

Kazmir may not get much better, but I think you're underselling him. ERA+ of 116, 142, 130, and 127, despite facing the Yankees and Sox a combined 32 times in that span. (BTW, a 3.22 ERA against those teams). No, he doesn't make it very far into games, but isn't a deep rotation exactly where you want someone fitting his profile? Shields, Garza, and eventually Price can ensure that the bullpen isn't overtaxed, and Kazmir can come in and be a weapon for 6 innings every five days. He isn't the second coming of Johan Santana, but he's a damned good pitcher. Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but I don't think contenders should trade top-tier (or close to it) talent.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

I don't think a "divisional beat" would match the vital intimacy. I'm a Cards fan, and what I value about my gamers is that Goold (and yes, Leach. MLB.com is already providing an alternative) are tied to the team. They get the clubhouse, they can pick up on moods, and while that may not be vital for analysis or understanding on the field play, it still runs through their recaps and helps imbue the season with some drama and humanity.

Apr 01, 2009 9:40 AM on Loose Ends
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I still think the gamer has value. If you read them every day, and your city is blessed enough to have good beat writers, they can provide a season-long narrative chronicling a team's ups and downs in a way that a team-specific blog or national baseball site like ESPN or BP cannot.

Apr 01, 2009 8:57 AM on Loose Ends
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 12

Am I the only one seeing the full article twice?

Mar 25, 2009 9:15 AM on Reality Checks
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: -1

"but a double-elimination format falls down when the quality of competition is as unequal as it is in these groups" How is this different than divisional play? One of the three best teams in baseball is going to be out of the playoffs due to unequal competition. Not justifying the practice, but it is pervasive in essentially every facet of sport.

Mar 18, 2009 2:30 PM on Oh, What a Night
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Joe, I like the idea of qualifiers as well. Right now, South Africa has no reason to get excited. They didn't do anything to get in other than have a large population that seemed to be a good opportunity for MLB to market towards. If they qualified, though, that's an achievement. And achievements are excited and get people interested. Chattanooga earned the right to a #16 seed last night, and they have virtually no shot to even win a game in the tournament. But I would have loved to have been on that campus last night.

Mar 10, 2009 3:17 PM on Logistics
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Rick Ankiel struck out 194 in 175 IP in his age 20 season with a 134 ERA+

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Sweet, now I can confuse you and Goldstein in person.

Mar 10, 2009 2:38 PM on September 3-10
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 5

Not only is 2 ROYs a small sample size, but it\'s a clear case of selection bias. The best rookie in each league (determined after the fact) is almost certainly going to be a player who exceeded his forecast. If we similarly judged PECOTA only by looking at MVPs we\'d probably see a list of players who performed in their 90th percentile projection or even better.

Mar 03, 2009 3:18 PM on Matt Wieters
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Oh that\'s cool, the 538 guy writes for BP too!

Feb 13, 2009 2:21 PM on Reader Mail
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Joe Sheehan will not be moving to Soccer Prospectus, we now know.

Jan 15, 2009 1:55 PM on Bad Timing
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 1

Fitz\'s Root Beer in St. Louis. Ships anywhere in the US.

Jan 12, 2009 4:47 PM on July 31-August 5, 2001
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I agree with shankweather. Things seem to have gotten a little too insular here. I would love for BP writers to engage in the kinds of open source sabermetric discussions taking place on the Book and Fangraphs.

Dec 31, 2008 1:22 PM on July 23-30
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Fantastic news. Congrats to all.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Tigers 7/148, 12/03

Nov 10, 2008 12:40 PM on July 2-8
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Neyer presents a pretty good retort in his blog.

 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Will, anything on The Colby and Boggs for Matt Cain?

Sep 25, 2008 9:39 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

I\'m really not assuming anything. Any deal involves risk. Matt Cain is probably a pretty serious injury risk at this point. The least risky thing about Rasmus is his defense. He has plus speed and is a plus defender in center field, that is easy to project to the majors. As I said I would throw in a lesser free agent to sweeten the deal, such as Mitchell Boggs or Jess Todd. For the Giants a deal for a high upside propect like Rasmus makes sense. Colby isn\'t really that risky for a prospect either he ahd a rough couple of months starting out at AAA and then turned it on. Unfortunately he went down with a minor knee injury and the Cardinals played it conservatively. Point is, If I\'m the Giants I\'m making a deal more like the Maybin for Cabrera deal where I can get a cost sontrolled player who will help my team when I really need it.

Sep 25, 2008 3:41 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

2 years vs. 5 with Colby at a premium position. 2009 really shouldn\'t matter to the Giants since they are unlikely to contend. With the Giants much improved minor league system (Keith Law has it at number 5) they should be in a better position to contend for a championship in the future. Realisitically they probably don\'t even have much of a chance in 2010. So I would much rather have a CF for the next 5 years with Grady Sizemore upside if I\'m the Giants than a power hitting first basement for 2.

Sep 25, 2008 2:39 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Except thsat Colby is cost controlled, so they would have him cheaply for years to come.

Sep 25, 2008 1:34 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

Matt Cain for Colby Rasmus and maybe a lesser prospect. The Cardinals have a system with a lot of outfield or hitting prospects and low upside pitchers. They could use a guy like Cain in the short and long term. Larussa would like the deal because it improves out immediate chances and their have been rumors of discord between Colby and the Cardinals. The Giants get a top ten prospect at a premium posisiton who is able to contribute immediately and cost controlled for a long time.

Sep 25, 2008 1:15 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 0

How much confidence can the Cardinals have that Carpenter will be able to stay healthy and contribute next season?

Sep 23, 2008 9:24 AM on UTK Interactive
 
Clonod
(35609)
Comment rating: 2

The Astros made the world series in 05, all though they had lateseason surges in 04, 05, 06, and now 08.

Sep 10, 2008 10:51 AM on The NL Wild Card