CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  

Search Article Archives

Find:   

Author:    Article: 
Search Date (From):    Search Date (To):   
Sort Results by:  Relevance
 Date
Show me  Results

   Show Article Summaries

New! Search comments:      
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)

dolbear65
32 comments | -4 total rating | -0.12 average rating
Facebook Twitter email a friend
Share comments by 'dolbear65' posted at
Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/34877
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 1

It has been wrong now for at least 2 months. Time to either fix the description of that column, or fix the formula.

Jun 13, 2013 8:04 AM on Adjusted Standings 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 2

I have the same question as OkayFine. Blue Jays "average" is higher than all four columns as well. Rockies "average" is lower than all four columns. There are many other examples too. Even if you were using some sort of weighted average, this would be impossible.

May 15, 2013 8:41 AM on Adjusted Standings 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

After last year's disaster, it is very encouraging to see how well this report is working this season.

May 08, 2013 7:28 AM on
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

100% chance just means that for all of the simulation runs the Braves made the playoffs. Does not mean they have clinched it.

Sep 19, 2012 5:47 AM on
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

I would hate to see it discontinued. While it still may not be perfect, it's clear that much progress has been made. We have had to complain loudly, and repeatedly, but our shouts were heard.

Jul 23, 2012 11:06 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Updated this morning at 6:17, but in fact, all the numbers are the same as yesterday.

Jul 18, 2012 9:08 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Some of us noticed that during the All Star break, the playoff odds were swinging wildly every day, even though no games were being played. Are you now saying this was simply due to an insufficient number of simulations?

Jul 17, 2012 11:51 AM on Playoff Odds Updated
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Very good questions. I wonder if we will get a reasonable answer.

Jul 12, 2012 9:04 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 1

Using the Tigers as an example... June 19th: Exp Win%: .527 Sim Win: 83.1 Playoff: 39.0% Re-run: 29.2% (I worked it out from the other numbers) June 20th: Exp Win%: .527 Sim Win: 83.6 Playoff: 45.3% Delta: 16.1% What causes a 10% drop on the re-run? Change in 3rd order wins shouldn't have an effect that big.

Jun 20, 2012 7:06 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

It's counter-intuitive, confusing, and misleading. Delta should mean what it says, i.e. the difference between a team's playoff chances yesterday versus today.

Jun 19, 2012 7:07 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Points taken, I'm not sure who is right or wrong. I was already wondering about the issue of actual wins vs. projected wins. But it's still inconsistent. Baltimore and Washington are the two teams in question with more actual wins. And yet they are on opposite sides here. Baltimore has higher playoff percentage than Boston, but Washington is lower than Atlanta. Note also that BP can't even get the deltas right. If they can't do something as simple as A = B - C, then it's not hard to wonder what else is wrong with this thing.

Jun 18, 2012 1:48 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

You could be right, but I'm not convinced. It just feels like too large of a discrepancy. Also the difference in their division chances and wild card chances are in opposite directions. Hard to make a coherent argument for that. The situation with Nationals and Braves is another example of the same problem.

Jun 18, 2012 10:21 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Apparently if you win 83.9 games in the AL East, you will win the division either 3.9% of the time, or 7.1% of the time, depending which city you play in. And you will win a wild card berth 28.7% of the time, or perhaps 20.9% of the time. Such are the vague mysteries of the Playoff Odds Report.

Jun 18, 2012 7:06 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Someone from BP please comment on the deltas. What is the point of showing these deltas when they are flat out wrong every single day?

Jun 18, 2012 6:38 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Phillies with a one day delta of 11.0, and they didn't even play yesterday. Really?

Jun 01, 2012 6:19 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Deltas are messed up again today. Tampa goes from 72.4 down to 65.7 and their delta is reported as -1.6? I think it's also fair to ask why Tampa would go -6.7 after beating Boston last night. What's going on??

May 26, 2012 8:15 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Here's a delta comparison from May 24 to May 25. I have only listed the teams that played a game on May 24. For each team, I show Win or Loss, then playoff odds from May 24 and May 25. Then I show my calculated delta followed by the delta from the report. All of the deltas are incorrect except for San Fran. Cle W 64.6 65.7 1.1 4.3 Chi W 27.2 29.1 1.9 -0.8 LAA W 39.0 44.1 5.1 4.7 Det L 45.3 40.6 -4.7 -3.5 Min L 0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.0 Sea L 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 Cin W 64.2 68.1 3.9 5.5 SD W 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 SF W 37.0 39.4 2.4 2.4 Phi W 26.0 38.2 12.2 9.4 Atl L 81.5 78.7 -2.8 -0.8 NYM L 9.8 5.5 -4.3 -2.8 Mia L 50.4 37.0 -13.4 -11.4 StL L 86.6 87.0 0.4 -4.7

May 25, 2012 6:27 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

To check the numbers more carefully, I have saved a screen shot of today's playoff odds page. Tomorrow I will compare.

May 24, 2012 8:55 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

To me, it seems like the numbers are much more sensible than before, just the deltas are broken. For example, Rays playoff pct didn't actually go down by 3.9 compared to prior day, but the delta says it did.

May 24, 2012 7:17 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

All the numbers are same as yesterday.

May 19, 2012 1:17 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -2

Now that this is working, it's interesting to see just how much impact one game can have on a team's playoff chances. Intuitively I never would have expected one day swings of 7 and 8 percent. Very cool.

May 18, 2012 12:22 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

Yesterday's report was very encouraging, but today kind of feels like the movie Groundhog Day.

May 18, 2012 10:13 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -2

Thank you!

May 15, 2012 5:55 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 2

The silence from BP is deafening, so let's try this one more time, using Boston as an example. Boston Red Sox: "Expected Win Pct" = .534. My understanding is that this is the input to the sim. i.e. this is the chance of Boston winning a game at a neutral site vs. a .500 team. If that assumption is wrong, then obviously the rest of this argument will not make any sense. "Sim Win" = 86.7, which equals a .535 win percentage. So, at the start of the year, this would be a very sensible result, just a tiny variation from .534 due to luck, and/or strength of schedule. The problem is, that the Red Sox sit at 12 wins and 19 losses today. So, to get to 86.7 wins, they must win 74.7 of their remaining 131 games, which is a .570 clip. Seems like a long way off from the expected .534, more than we can reasonably explain by luck and schedule. Repeat this exercise for any team that has started with an unusually high or low win percentage and you will see the same effect. THE GAMES ALREADY PLAYED ARE BEING IGNORED. If I seem upset by this, it's because the Playoff Odds Report is a wonderful idea in theory, and I was looking forward to tracking it every day. For baseball nerds like me, it's an extremely interesting way to watch the season unfold. But the execution has fallen far short of my hopes. Guys at Baseball Prospectus, if you are listening, please give a reply, even if it's to say that I'm completely wrong. Thank you.

May 11, 2012 10:47 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

So you decide to reply to that minor one-time bug, but not the bigger issue that the actual games played are being completely ignored. Some sort of explanation on that, please? Are today's large 1 day deltas a response to that problem? Or does BP even agree that a problem exists?

May 08, 2012 5:31 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

If you look at any of the teams that have had an extreme good or bad start, and try to reconcile their final result, it doesn't add up. It's almost as if the sim is ignoring the games already played, and simming the entire season. Look at Washington, San Diego, and the Angels for example. I think some clarification by someone at BP would be helpful.

Apr 29, 2012 6:38 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

Angels are currently nine games behind Texas. The sim says that they will finish the season six games behind Texas, even though the input to the sim says the Rangers are the better team. I think we need some clarification from someone at BP that this thing is actually working properly.

Apr 29, 2012 6:27 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

Very good point, I hadn't noticed that.

Apr 28, 2012 8:47 PM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: -1

"The expected win percentage used to run the Monte Carlo sim based on projected strength of team, but exclusive of schedule. Not to be confused with actual expected winning percentage."

Apr 26, 2012 7:27 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

That's because sometime in the last 7 days they fixed it up to add a 2nd wild card team.

Apr 19, 2012 8:09 AM on Playoff Odds 2012
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

Drabek in the 2012 rotation? That was a joke, right?

Sep 23, 2011 7:19 AM on Toronto Blue Jays
 
dolbear65
(34877)
Comment rating: 0

I normally just use QERA to evaluate minor league pitchers. I don\'t think this stat would add any value to that, since it includes Hits. Hits don\'t predict anything very well. Add me to the list of those who are surprised that Kevin Goldstein came up with this one.

Oct 06, 2008 5:26 AM on Missing Bats