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I think you got this about right. Everyone in St. Louis expecting a stellar season but with Reyes gone and a lot of ?? In rotation it's more likely to collapse than improve.
Devil magic has not helped turn grichuk, Wong, Adams into the new core so it doesn't always work.
If you only want 5 a year then limit the vote to 5 not 10. This is a temporary issue that will go away in a couple years when some of the PED guys fall off ballot.
I think the real issue is that people keep voting for bonds/Clemens/Sosa when none of them will ever get 75%. They should be voting for the cuspy guys like Hoffman, Martinez, schilling and Mussina
Where's the section where the other part of the trade is discussed. Why the bashing of atlanta's citizens? Why such a long rant at all things Braves? Is this a joke?
Seriously, shouldn't this guy be summarily dismissed. It really the kid of content that should be on this site. If this was a comment, it would have been flagged
Martin has no chance. Molina is on a different level, lots of post-season appearances, part of a famous family, single team player. Iconic team
I'd be shocked if he doesn't go in by the fifth ballot.
No <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31391">Yadier Molina</a></span>? He's acknowledged as the games best defensive catcher, maybe ever. He's been on 4 World Series teams and likely the reason why they made 4 series. Maybe a bit weak on hitting side but not bad.
How many years does colon have to keep going to start getting consideration?
The only three Changes I see would be?
1. Fewer off days
2. Go 1,3,5,7 so only the World Series is 7 games
3. Get rid of inter league play which mucks up the competitive balance of the season
Surely the most interesting thing would be to chart out the top 10/20 hitters who are prey to this logic. I'd be interested to see what type of players these are
I'm not a big believer in RF defense making much of a difference. Strip away heyward's supposed material defensive value and I can easily see grichuk surpassing heyward. Metrics say otherwise but at the end of the day he's an average hitter playing a non-premium position. Loved having him but if he makes more than 5 plays a year that make a difference in RF I'd be surprised. Grichuk is more likely to be <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=24438">Dave Kingman</a></span> than Mike trout but there's a chance he could be special if he develops better plate discipline - still very young
If you are going to use arm injuries to downgrade the staff then it must apply to lackey/Leake as well plus 9 years of age difference
Pretty pessimistic. This team won't hit but Leake replaces Lackey - most people will take that trade. Grichuk could surprise and be worth more than Heyward. Wainwright and Garcia for a full season.
I agree they don't win 100 or even 95 but this team could rack up 90-93 wins with a healthy pitching staff. Molina is the wild card - another injury season from him and they are closer to 88 wins.
Cards have a ton of depth which is a good way to avoid slumps - no way they finish with 81 wins unless injuries to pitchers
How is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55831">Daniel Descalso</a></span> not on this list
Fowler and Desmond could have waited a couple more months and signed mid-season with no comp attached.
If they really think the market is massively overvaluing picks, they should have waited the QO time limit out and they would have been much better off.
I don't understand why more players don't do that. Its easy to stay in shape in an independent league and then come back to a team that has had an injury and really needs you.
The cards need a new scouting director
I just wish all the different statistical sites would come to agreement on methodologies for the key stats OR work towards minimizing differences. Its insane to say that we should be looking at stats more and less at gut feel and then have a guy like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17912">Jack Morris</a></span> with WAR data so widely dispersed. If these stats were that good, the differences would be minimal.
Same applies to the defensive spectrum -- <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57396">Jason Heyward</a></span> is imply not a 4-5 WAR player. But defensive stats drive up his WAR to ridiculous levels.
Still don't think Morris is a hall of famer. He was very good but lines need to be drawn and I believe the voters got it right -- he's just slightly on the wrong side of that line.
I have to admit I'm shocked at everyone's view of thee draconian penalties when no one knows the real story yet. Frankly, corked bats and spitballs seem more meaningful than this.
The Astros scuttled a guys career last year when they screwed him in the draft and I think they got off with 100k fine.
The patriots blatantly try to cheat every year and their penalties have been barely noticeable
Larussa and the As built an empire on steroid abuse with no fines
The best we can tell from reports is that some idiot decided to publish some non proprietary, but embarrassing emails on deadspin. Maybe there is more, but even luhnow says the data they may have seen is useless
I suspect the punishment will be a fine and an agreement to put better code of conduct policies in place unless the breach was authorized.
The cards have historically had horrible luck with taveras, Kyle, Ankiel. A loss of any one of these caliber players would hurt and it's hard to tell how many playoffs and World Series these losses have and will cost us. Then there is Coleman and the tarp and Denkinger. There may be devil magic but most of it has been bad
I'm of two minds. I hate the replay system and would rather go back to pre-replay days. I don't find the added precision at all enjoyable and I think it takes away some of the romance of the game. And after all it is a game
Having said that, if we are going to technology I'd rather just go all the way and get rid of the overpaid grumpy assholes and just let the players go about their business and when their are disagreements - go to the tape. I mean how many times do you really need an ump? 10X a game? The whole game could be played on honor system except for automated balls and strikes
The quote that was missing here was Price screaming that 85% of the journalists are honest and hardworking and the other 15% are bums who just criticize his team.
Then it would have been the perfect rant
This article reminds me of the audio-guide at Stonehenge. At each step it makes you stop and then the speaker says. "look over there -- that stone is exactly a 90 degree angle from the stone you are standing in front of -- why? -- we don't know."
Jason heyward will make a run at this if he has a good year with some power, but Harper will be first 300 million man.
I think umpire effect will be big. I'd be willing to bet that there is a wide range of how some umps/catchers bond over time.
Thank you, where does back acne check in?
I'll have to read that about 10X but on the the top framing careers, is there a metric which shows top framing runs "amount of opportunity" (innings caught) for instance, if yadier molina has had more opportunities than Brian McCann or Lucroy on a ratio basis, would they be better?
Great choice for the Hall and a big win for Houston
Again, similar to an earlier piece on how BP writers voted, there seems to be a strange group-think at BP that everyone needs to follow the same thought process (Jaffes WAR model) or they are wrong. You guys are looking more and more like global warming theorists who won't countenance any other models but their own.
Jaffes model clearly does not deal with the character clause ( a requirement for choosing members). Other writers in the private ballots are factoring that in. And let's remember the private ballots are 60% of the electorate, not some fringe group.
Even if you don't have hate for the Roiders, you need to look at stats of people in that era relative to what others were doing. Bagwell looks like a power hitter across generations but in his era somewhat pedestrian.
Look at Edmonds next year. He will probably get no more than 10% of vote. If you strip all the Roiders from his era jimmy ballgame looks like one of the best players of his generation but it's now hidden.
Getting 7 people into hall with 75% agreement is amazing. There nothing wrong with the process.
Its not at all clear to me that it was condoned by MLB. The admissions by Canseco and others as to how this activity was carried out (in secret, usually with third party suppliers)as well as everyone's behavior of hiding it and not talking about it before, during or after indicates it was a known bad activity and depending on the drug, illegal.
Most officials chalked it up to weight training. Whether that was a convenient curtain to hide behind, I don't know, but it certainly wasn't the training staff and team doctors medicating these guys.
And I still don't get what's wrong with penalizing "only the few". That's how the real world works. some people lie, rob and steal and get caught and others don't. It doesn't mean you conclude that the behavior is ok. What is it about Palmeiro, Bonds, Clemens, Petitte, Sheffield, McGwire that you don't know?
if you want to say that you don't have the goods on bagwell, piazza, biggio, thomas, etc, that seems perfectly fine.
and finally, it seems that this group of writers could find a statistical way to show which players are likely to have been roiders. you have data before and after the roid cycle, you have enough data on players who did use and how it impacted their performance and aging curves, shouldn't you be able to model who is likely to have used based on performance outside the norm?
I don't think you don't care. I think you can't be bothered to spend any time on it which is odd given the time all of you spend dissecting every other piece of baseball minutae ( and I mean that in a positive vein). PED usage dramatically changed the playing field more than any other thing in baseball history since they banned the spitball.
So the arguments fall into the following categories
1. Who cares about statistics ? Interesting response on a baseball prospectus website
2. I drink coffee, so I don't care ( everyone does it argument ) and its corrolary - Ty Cobb was a racist
3. I don't know who else cheated massively so I won't penalize the obvious cheaters
4 I don't want to think about this, so I wont
I'm always surprised that the sabr community is unconcerned about PEDs and older writers have a big issue with it. Seems the sabr community doesn't care about cheating and more importantly doesn't care much for the purity of the data. By giving bonds and others a pass, it screws guys like mcgriff/mussina who would otherwise have a great story. It so makes cross-generation comparisons very hard. Basically PEDS wrecked the data sets for 20 years but no one seems to care.
Seems like the older guys wouldn't give a hoot much like JFK got a pass from the press on womanizing but Clinton didn't, but they seem to hate the Roiders.
The obvious answer is to leave Clemens and Bonds off until the overhang clears so that raines/trammel/schlling etc get some momemtum. Also allows you to keep sosa/mcgwire, sheffield and walker on the ballot. In a couple years you can start pushing again for the bonds/clemens.
It looks like at least five guys on this ballot and maybe six will be in within 2 years which should largely solve the problem since the remaining guys are borderline anyhow.
Pleasantly surprised to see Kelly in the Top 10. This will be a key year for him and with the cardinals needing to start thinking about the future, his development couldn't happen fast enough.
Huge number of starting pitchers on this list explains the Shelby Miller trade
there are plenty of players who swing after 6 straight balls on the Cardinals. That's just something he has learned by watching.
The running play was pretty borderline but I take your point.
ok, you got me
four first names was a good line.
Great trades for birdos. Ramsey, Clark and Kelly for Lackey and Masterson AND Taveras gets a full shot at starting. Cards lost nothing they couldn't replace, will likely sign Masterson to a long term deal and get Lackey all next year at 500K plus a QO.
Worse outcome is that they can trade Lackey next year for the equivalent of Craig/Kelly and get parts that fit their long term needs much better than Craig/Kelly can.
You have to be pretty interesting/good to be mentioned as a throwaway 50 years later. Syd Barrett indeed.
the bad managing on both sides was unbelievable. Craig not called on to hit with bases loaded in fourth with a deep, deep bullpen?
Workman batting and then immediately being pulled
Did anyone make a good call last night? maybe the double-switch that put Wong in the game and moved the pitcher's spot in the order.
This is correct. It is an article arguing for a different definition of obstruction. The actual definition fits this play PERFECTLY. Being uncertain here is the strange place to be. I would be hard-pressed to find a controversial WS call where the umpires were so good at interpreting the rules -- they usually get it wrong
Did you look at stars/superstars vs average players? If I were a betting man, I would think the cream of the crop plays better with more experience (i.e. the Carlos Beltran effect).
That is quite a review. The biggest takeaway for me is that the Cards won't have homes for all of these players and that some kind of package deal for Stanton would still leave them with a deep system. Cards can replace pujols and Marlins get a treasure trove of major league regulars.
Beckett and Crawford clearing waivers is not surprising. Gonzalez was labeled as instigator of the Valentine uprising (which in retrospect may now have been a plant by upper management).
If you look like a cancer, teams won't take you especially if you have a long term contract.
Prior to the Valentine story, he might have been claimed, but not after.
I agree that I remember thinking that Carter was a Hall of Famer when I saw him play.
Can we get Simmons into the Hall now. He was every bit as good in my opinion
Jay, my favorite time of year. Thanks for all your hard work. I love all the analysis. I always feel for the guys that get no votes. They get trashed on so many sites as not being any good. All these guys were good -- even Tony Womack had a great year for the Cards. You do a nice job of celebrating them for the feat of even being considered for the Hall of Fame.
Was excited to see Radke get a couple of votes. Always thought he was much under-rated.
So is Kaat going in next time around? I personally would like to see it. I've never been a peak guy. I think you win 283 games in the majors, you should have a seat in the Hall
Jim Kaat with 10 votes. Any thoughts on this?
If they are going to do this, and no doubt they will if there is more revenue to be had, then I'd like to see them do four things:
1. shorten regular season back to 154
2. Add 10-15 day-night doubleheaders (expands rosters accordingly)to further shrink time lines
3. set up a round robin league playoff format to determine champion so that everyone plays everyone and best record goes
4. remove off-days so that the game strategy in playoffs is same as regular season
very interesting article -- more of these
Interesting ballot. Always been a Larry Walker fan. Complete ballplayer. I hope he gets in the 30% range so she can start the climb to induction.
CK -- the conventional wisdom is that no matter how bad ryan's offense is, he will always generate positive WAR, therefore he's worth a lot. Seems to me when you have an atrocious hitter, positive WAR based only on defenseive metrics must be misleading. And it is proven out by teams refusing to play no-hit shortstops over long periods of time -- what is the right way to evaluate someone like Ryan? Everyone in St. Louis is upset about the trade -- but is he really worth more than what we got for him?
how does aaron miles not make this list?
Nice article -- very helpful
What are the statistics like for top 10% of the major leaguers? That is, what are the equivalent statistics for the A-rods, Pujols, Jeters, Mauers? I assume they get in early, maybe peak early, and then hold their peak for quite a while. This is the most interesting group for me because these are the guys that get 5-8 year contracts.
I like saving the first ballot hall of famers for the inner circle. I think the Alomar vote was suprisingly strong --was expecting a high 50%. I think waiting a year makes sense. Ultimately the decision is binary and Blyleven in year 15 is the same as Alomar in year 2, but I think first ballot players should be special.
Why so dismissive of Raines? And you choose Mattingly. Wow -- how does something like that happen at BP
Jay, nice article as always -- I really enjoy reading these discussions. My only quibble is that something has to be wrong if Robin Ventura is close to being a Hall of Famer. Doesn't pass the smell test to me. I watched him play many games for the Sox and don't ever remember thinking Hall of Famer.
Sportswriters do carry a grudge, but I'm ok with holding alomar out for a few years as a result. What he did was completely out of bounds and I'm glad he apologized, but apologies only go so far -- he never should have done it and I think it goes to the character issue.
A few things about umpires:
1. What happens when a game is protested. How does that get resolved. Has any protest ever been upheld?
2. Who is making the decisions on rain delay starts and stops?
3. What is the process for assigning umpires to teams and how does the league deal with bias issues? Didn't some umpire have it in for Earl Weaver and they had to keep him away from Oriole games.
4. Now that they are grading balls/strikes, what is the process for doing that and when do they do it --right after the game, at end of the season, before the next game where he calls balls/strikes
Silent George Hendrick. He was great for the Cardinals. He was the original "manny being manny". He would go sit on the bullpen bench during pitching changes to conserve energy and didn't have much to say to he press.
George always looked like he wanted to be anywhere but on a ballfield but he had a great arm and he was a smart hitter. He'd go up in the first inning with nobody on and two outs and wave at three curve balls over the outside corner. In a later inning with RISP, the pitcher would throw a curve on the outside corner and George would plate two with a shot to right center.
Found it. You should publicize results day/night better. Also, is there a way to track if we are voting for the same people each week. I know I will lose track -- would be interested to see if I keep voting for same people over time.
Are the Week 1 results posted somewhere or do we just have to infer from who's not back?