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I had a laparoscopic appendectomy a year ago and would not have been able to play baseball or really any other strenuous activity for 3-4 weeks even though the doctor originally told me 2. I think everyone is different
"Mat Latos' innings increase this season is a worry"
Why? They are in a pennant race for the first time in years and what will they get if they baby him? No guarantees he doesn't get hurt with an innings limit. How'd the Nat's handling of Strasburg work out?
With the Pads throwing a guy like Cory Luebke tonight, I would say they need to get everything they can out of Latos and not worry about the future repercussions that may or may not arise from it.
I find it interesting that here is a case in which everybody was/is applauding the Nats handling of Strasburg with innings and pitch count limits and here he is broken down. As soon as a Verducci Effect guy gets hurt, the tone of this article is "I told you so" but when it works the other way it's well sometimes pitchers get hurt.
Come on...anyone can change their "pen name" they post under
It really is sad that such a good article only gets PED comments here. I suppose this is the state of baseball today. Can't a guy figure something out later in his career? Perhaps he got consistent with a secondary pitch.
Yes, he was included in the Mitchell Report but it also says that he was introduced to the dealer in 2001. Does this mean that he didn't use PEDs before this? I will be the first to say mot necessarily but it doesn't mean he did either. Lets not condemn players just because they were on the same teams as known users. By this guilty by association, everybody is a user.
Ben Sheets to have both Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery. SF Chron reports 1.5 year recovery but one has to wonder about his career. Kinda sad.
You spend so much more energy trying to snap at the people that ask about players then it takes to write nothing new. Or check last weeks article. Everyone wants to know about their guy. What is so wrong with that?
Also, those four guys I found as "examples" consisted of about 2 minutes worth of research. I'd expect authors spend more time researching for their articles. So, if those guys don't exactly fit the Value Pick moniker fine, I still think the bar should be raised for SP at least.
I disagree. Sure there are 16 team leagues out there and NL and AL only. But I'd be willing to bet there are just as many or more standard 10 or 12 team mixed leagues. I happen to be in an NL only and a 12 team mixed league.
All the guys I mentioned are FA in my 12 team mixed and with the exception of Vargas have season numbers that aren't going to knock your socks off. Yet they have been pitching better and can be a long term solid pitcher. Wolf's got a 4.5 ERA and 1.5 whip on the season. However, he's been a solid fantasy pitcher in the past. So, the recent stretch in my mind is worth watching and 46% owned isn't that much. And, because of his season numbers, you could easily pass over him which is what it sounds like is the intent of the value picks.
I understand the rationale and perhaps the under 10% is good for other positions. I'm not suggesting the Cole Hamels types (owned in 95%) but perhaps more like 30% to 40% might have more benefit for the majority of the leagues. These guys are probably available and are more apt to be long term solutions rather than a shot in the dark.
Guys that might fit this are...
Wolf (46% in yahoo) with 4 out of last 5 quality starts.
Arroyo (39%) 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP since June 1
Vargas (37%) 3.09 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for the season
Hammel (27%) 1.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 6.6 k/9 since June 1
It looks like all these guys are less than 10% owned. I think for SP, it might be more valuable to include guys that aren't quite as fringe as these. Even in my deep NL league, I wouldn't look to pick up a guy expecting a 4 era (Martin). I might spot start him but I don't think it's a long term solution.
You should check the SBs on Werth. He is not stealing more than ever before. In fact, he only has 4 so far this year. That's a pace for 10 SB when he stole 20 the last 2 years. Granted he stole 2 the other night against Boston but those 2 were his first steals since 5/8. And the fact that he's only been caught once (on 4/20) this year means he simply is not running at all. I'm not so sure the hip he tweaked earlier in the season is affecting his ability to run.
It's written more concrete than an opinion. The "period" at the end is very definitive. I think it's a little harsh. You say all the time that you are not a scout, yet, these scouts that disagree with you on Zimmerman don't know baseball? Wow!!
Any thoughts on Kuroda coming back to finish the 5th inning and qualify for a win in Cincy last night after a 2 hour rain delay? In these instances, would Kuroda "stay warm" by mimicking a typical inning by throwing 15-20 pitches every 30 minutes or so?
I'm not sure that the Quality of opponents for pitchers the way it is calculated really means that much. Hitting is so cyclical that simply taking the overall stats doesn't necessarily represent what happened those few days in the year the pitcher faced a particular team. We of course know some teams are better than others but a whole team can go into a slump for a week or two and then pull out of it. Phi ranks 28th in R in the last 30 days. Will we really look back at them at the end of the year and say they are a bad offensive team?
What does Nolan Ryan have to say about Strasburg's pitch count?
Mathis in 2009 was a robust .211/.288/.388. For 2010 spring he was .220/.292/.366 yet Scioscia handed him the starting catcher job. A decline from his hot 2010 start may make Napoli the better choice but I doubt Scioscia will go that route.
It's actually really not sad. From a global more broad perspective, if we accept what reporters...even authorities on the subject...as fact and do not question, how can we improve? Wasn't the earth flat at one point?
I'm curious what is the difference in sample size from the data that orignially supported the Verducci Effect and those current studies that show no correlation?
A link I found indicates Verducci tracked pitchers for 10 years between 1996 and 2005. Here's a study that includes all pitchers from 2002 to present. Without diving too deep into the data, they seem fairly comparable.
Proven how so? This was exactly my point. you have a database of injuries going back how many years? We know who the Verducci Effect (VE) pitchers are. How do the injuries on VE and non VE compare? All we ever see in your columns are examples that support VE and I realize this is an injury column so that makes sense but how can you just "choose" to ignore data and analysis like this.
Verducci Effect - "I know what the numbers have said about the Verducci Effect, but until I see a bigger more complete study, I'm going to keep it as a red flag"...Translation - I believe it to be true so I will keep finding the examples that make my case.
Hawpe has had close to 600 PAs every year since 2006. So, when exactly did they bench him for "weeks at a time"?
ManRam hits the DL. I was disappointed not to see anything about him in today's UTK given he's been in and out of the lineup the past week and came out of the game last night. Any initial thoughts on a ERD?
The problem is that we will really never know what he took and we can only go with his response on why he took it. He says he was trying to have a baby and having fertility issues. Do we know this is the truth? Not really and we are left, yet again, to make our own judgement as to the truth of his statements.
This certainly isn't anything new but quite frankly, I'm getting pretty tired of these "excuses" or half truths every time someone gets caught.
You are free to choose to believe him and give him the benefit of the doubt. I cannot do that because I've been burned too many times and I think the majority of the fans are in my boat. It really is sad because he might be telling the truth.
Except that unauthorized PEDs are against the rules in baseball even if a player is healing. If a banned substance is prescribed by a doctor, I believe (could be mistaken tho') there is a mechanism that will allow the player to get approval from baseball. By now everyone knows the rules whether they make sense or not.
The report says that the 50 game suspension starts tomorrow. I realize he will still lose pay but why wouldn't the suspension wait until he's healthy? If a guy gets suspended for beaning or charging the mound, appeals it, then goes on the DL, he can't drop the appeal and serve while he's on the DL.
Actually the last paragraph of the article asks, if you were the Rays would you accept any of these trades?
So, with that, I would disagree as the article's summary point clearly is advocating for contemplating these trades. The fact that none of the other teams would consider any of these deals makes, IMO, the article pointless.
You get a + from me.
Why would the Rays, Marlins, or Braves make these deals? No way they even consider it.
Even the established star players in this deal are 25 or 26 years old and have yet to reach their prime. All three players are also locked up with long term deals through at least 2013. It might be an interesting read if it even had a remote aspect of taking place.
Since no "new" pitches can be invented, name one pitcher that threw the split finger fastball before Roger Craig started coaching.
Sorry...didn't read the BP article before posting where the it's stated the gyro is not a shuuto.
It's the same as a Shuuto. Right Will?
Is it more likely that Suppan has the "phantom" neck injury? The Brewers don't need a 5th starter for the first few weeks of the season and want the roster spot.
The current timetable on Lidge appears to be back the 2nd week of the season. How realistic is that?
If you will not ignore them, you shouldn't write that "I'm going to tend to ignore them this year".
I appreciated the responses in the comments last year on specific players that were not covered because I often had a similar question. Would you really rather have people e-mail you so you have to answer the same question over and over?
All I'm saying is that I think you should reconsider your policy for this year because I think the comments section provides a valuable resource for readers.
I think ignoring comments is doing a disservice to your readers. I understand you might not have any new information on some injuries or players situations but to say you will flat out ignore comments asking about specific players not covered is not the right message to send to loyal readers.
What I actually like about your articles is that you don't just regurgitate the MLB notes like some other "sports injury authors". So, telling your readers to go read the notes isn't much of a benefit. They probably are already doing that anyway.
But again, low or not, they are 4 stars that the Giants don't have...according to the articles.
The Giants were listed as a "stocked system" from the BP home page in Friday's article. The Nats only get the "slow but steady improvement". However, when you compare the number of prospects in each star criteria...2 each 5-star, but the Nats have 2 more 4-star prospects. It seems this would be a better overall system but the comments don't seem to reflect this.
I agree with the concept that GM's work from years before influences the coming years. Also, I think the statement that the large market teams are not penalized is flat wrong. In 1998, NYY had 114 wins and they end up with a score of 1.22...good for 52nd best year of the decade. What is the ceiling for a team with a payroll of $200 million? How many wins would it take for NYY to get 2.07? Is it even possible? I think this is another example of BP developing a metric to support their theories...in this case the small market/young cheap kids is the way to go.
The Indians get third best for the decade yet they have 5 seasons (half the decade) at below 0.500 including two years with 65 and 68 wins. Yes they had four 90 win seasons but only 2 playoff appearances. I'm not sure this analysis really tells us much of anything about the reality of the quality of the job the GM does.
Shredded by Righties? Sure he's certainly better against LHB but he had a .244 BAA and .696 OPS for Sherrill in 2009. That's comparable to guys like Fuentes and Mike Gonzalez. Are they LOOGYs too?
Carlos Gonzalez please.
Any injury related info for Fernando Tatis? He only pinch hit in the CHI series and he's out of the lineup again today. i can't find any notes anywhere????
Any inside info on O-dog? Torre had Belliard in line-up 2 days in a row. Is it just a case of resting a guy that's played a lot with some nagging injuries this season?
If the players feel that they must "hide" the use from other players and the media, it is a PED. You don't see them sneaking around the eating of spinach, carrots, and yams which are good for your eyes because they are high in beta-carotene.
Larry Bowa said the new helmet is a bad idea.
Why is there no mention of Tracy's use of the bullpen. Street wasn't available and in the 9th with Furcal on 3rd and two outs, and Beimel on the mound, he didn't walk Manny to get to Loney.
Instead he brought in Daley to pitch to him and Manny got an rbi single to tie the game. Using Daley only left Herges in the bullpen.
Granted it worked out but it wasn't a good use of the pen.
Actually, he immediately gave Atkins a vote of confidence:
"I sat over on the other side of the field in this ballpark for a number of years and I watched Garrett Atkins drive in over 200 and some odd runs over the course of a couple of different seasons. If we're going to turn some things around, he needs to be in the middle of our order."
Although a month later he did threaten to send him down.
It looks like they are +8% over the past 7 days.
I actually agree with this and have seen it time and time again at BP. Not just with the Braves but other teams as well. It is a fine line that a journalist has to tread over in regards to how things are written. Since the comments section came out at BP, too often the writer's response to a readers comment is "that was poorly written and that's not exactly what I meant" or "a better way to write it is..."
This exact speculation vs fact is especially true at UTK (and I love the article, Will). The one that immediately comes to mind was the Jays front office and medical staff and the "fact" that the Jays were responsible for all the recent injuries.
I think it's extremely important for BP to make sure opinions are expressed accordingly.
Ryan Hanigan certainly is getting an extended look as a starter with Hernandez current injury but it's worth noting that while Votto was out, Hernandez played a lot of 1b which gave Hanigan almost an everyday workload behind the plate. May .314/.410/.392 June .318/.400/.379 Good OBP without a lot of power.
What do you expect from Schmidt tonight and the rest of the season?
Also, Sheff and his cramp...I've never heard of a three day long cramp. Most often they occur because of dehydration. Once you are rehydrated, everything should be ok, right? Are they just being extra cautious or is this a sign of something else?
The Houston Chronicle is reporting that The Astros will be paying for Backe's medical costs. Are you referring to his release while hurt that his agent will fight with them over?
Anything on Soto's oblique injury from batting practice today?
The SF Chronicle was reporting that Randy Johnson talked his way back in the game after his at bat. Apparently, he pleaded that he had felt the "similar twinge" in his shoulder in the past. Then, he proceeded to throw 20 pitches. Amazing that the Giants training staff would let this happen and not take the conservative approach.
OK...fall back on his contract. There was no mention in the article or my post of his contract and whether it's smart to have a $10M player on the bench. We were talking about Pierre's value to his team as a 4th OFer and what he did during the 50 games Manny was out. The contract is irrelevant.
My point was that since Pierre is not a starting OFer, he shouldn't be compared to the stats of a starting OFer.
Which one of the guys on the list would be able to step in for 50 games like he did?
BP and the BP clones hate him because of his contract and his perceived value from non BP clones. He doesn't fit the BP model. Get over it and move on to something else.
Another day...another Juan Pierre bashing on BP. OK, the guy is a slap hitter and not as good as Manny Ramirez. I think everyone gets that. He's a one dimensional player and the fact that he plays LF hurts him in BPs eyes because that is traditionally a power position. But as a 4th OFer, what else do you want? Here is a list of the 4th OFers for the other playoff teams (seemingly the best teams) as of today:
BOS Rocco Baldelli,
NYY Gardner or Hinske,
DET Josh Anderson,
PHI John Mayberry or Stairs,
SFG Lewis or Scherholtz
Which one of these guys is better than average OFer? Maybe Baldelli if he could play more than 35 games in a season. There's a reason these guys are 4th Ofers.
When would Webb be likely to pitch if he opted for surgery today? Early season 2010, right? If so, why wait? What will the D-backs be playing for in Sept?
I don't know. I know he has been touted as a stud in the past but I would expect a 23 year old stud to be doing better at AA than .267. He does have a ton of walks this season...so that is in his favor.
Maybe it is too early to anoint Colletti the winner but Meleon was supposed to be an important piece to the deal.
With the trade today of John Meleon to Rays for a 32 year old reliever and Carlos Santana only doing ok in AA this year, is it safe to give Ned Colletti the nod on the Blake deal?
There is a report that Peavy will start a rehab assignment in 3 weeks. Any info, Will? The previous report had him in a hard cast for a month and then take it off to see how he is healing. If he still has the hard cast on, how can they have a timetable for him?
How many of us want to see pictures of his male friends? How about we take a poll to see what the percentage want to see each gender? Then Will can be sure to provide the number of links that correspond with each percentage. Wouldn't that be the fairest way?
I find it interesting the with CC "the talk immediately centered on his conditioning". I immediately thought about his workload with the Brewers the 2nd half of last season. 7 CG and several starts on 3-days rest with MIL.
Halladay is scheduled to go on the DL tomorrow.
Peavy? Cast for a month?
So Randy Johnson after winning #300 goes from reports of missing the next start to pitching on 3 days rest? How does that happen and not even get a mention in the UTK?
Pierre is certainly sizzling hot and playing over his head but as previously written, you have to guy the credit for being ready to step in. He's also walking at a much higher rate with 11 BB in about 90 ABs. Last year, he had 22 BB in 375 ABs and 2007 33 BB in 668 ABs. Sure his BABIP is at a level that cannot be maintained...I won't deny that but I think the guy deserves some credit.
I wouldn't automatically say Torre won't do the right thing when manny comes back. Sure it makes sense that Pierre gets a little more playing time but when he cools down, i think Torre will put him back on the bench. After all, he sat Pierre when Manny came last year (80 Aug/Sept ABs) and the first part of this year.
Piazza is listed on baseball reference as 6'3". I know the article illustrates over this height but that's still tall. He was fairly durable until his mid 30s playing in >135 games in 9 of his first 11 years. He had some back issues but i can't recall knee and hip injuries.
RE: Votto: I had dizziness and vertigo symptoms for a couple months before I was diagnosed with hypothryoid condition. While I don't know whether this is Votto's problem, I learned a lot about dizziness as a symptom. It has many causes and is very difficult to diagnose. I went through a myriad of tests to try to get the cause of the problem.
Here is a small pic but you can tell he is wearing his traditional wire frame glasses.
Maybe if someone can zoom in to this picture. As a Dodger fan, it is certainly a painful memory.
Jason Schmidt is scheduled to throw in A ball on Tuesday. Updates on his progress and how he looks next week would be great. Thanks.
Can you expand on Escobar's status?
In my book, if I can't let Ricky Shroder become Rick, I can't let Howie become Howard. What's next Buddy Bell all of a sudden becoming Bud?
After this article was posted...Webb has been scratched from his Saturday start. The notes say Bob Melvin said everything is OK but the Snakes can't like this at all.
How about the status of Bronson Arroyo?
Is there any data to suggest that "tightness for simple inflammation" is more risk for more serious elbow problems in the coming months/years for Hamels...or any pitcher for that matter?
Jimenez has mean stuff but needs to figure out how to get his walks down. For the past four years, he\'s never had a year with bb/9 inn below 4.6. His bb/9 inn was 4.1 in 2007 at COL when he came up and started in Aug/Sept. However, it rose to 4.7 in 2008 which tells me batters made an adjustment and were laying off more.
People that are drafting AJ are drafting him for his name and not what he will produce. This happens every year. In yahoo leagues, AJ\'s average draft position is 209. In a 10 team league, that\'s the 21st round. That\'s either someone that waited until the very end to get his catcher or drafting a back-up.
Is Bengie Molina still slotted to hit clean-up? He had 95 rbi\'s last year in that position. This certainly makes him a draftable catcher.
I agree. Sure Billingsley has a solid lower base but isn\'t that the recommended way to pitch? Isn\'t that what makes pitchers strong? Will has been talking about injury risk pitchers that use their upper body with the a upper body snap as injuries waiting to happen. I haven\'t studied Billingsley\'s motion but if he\'s using Nolan Ryan\'s style as an example to emulate, he\'s using his lower body.
This picture doesn\'t look like an overweight guy to me. He\'s no Cole Hamels but he\'s also not Rick Reuschel.
Don\'t you think the stretch run comments by Guillen about Vazquez not being able to show up for a big game and then getting bombed in September?
Manny scored from first on the Loney double because of the reduced drag after he cut his hair. The first opportunity as a Dodger, Bowa wouldn\'t send him because he the increased drag was slowing him down.
The BoSox scoring play was an aberration and not scoring was the norm before the haircut.
So, yes, as a matter of fact he is doing things that he hasn\'t done before and it\'s all because Torre made him cut his hair...not once...but twice!!
Anything on Chone? He was hit with a pitch on Monday and hasn\'t played Tues or Wed. Will he be back soon?
Desperately Seeking Steals