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Where is the minor league update from the last 2 days?
Great analysis, as always, Derek. I'm curious as to what weight (if any) you give to the Dodgers' history in successfully transitioning pitchers from the Asian organizations to MLB. Given the successes they've had with pitchers such as Kuroda, Nomo, Saito, and Park, it seems that there's *something* that they just do better than other franchises (where the success has generally been of short duration or not at all).
Sarge, didn't the Dodgers muck about with E-Jax's mechanics following the 2003 season? If I recall correctly, there was a school of thought that such changes were the reason he took a step back at the time.
I took Roberto Petagine for YEARS in my fantasy leagues based exactly on this assumption.
TrueBlueLA did a great analysis of the Dodger moves; I'd recommend it highly to anyone (like me) that is wholly dissatisfied with what they're doing.
In part: "In order to get these five marginal upgrades in 2012, the Dodgers will pay something like $26.5 million in 2013 for a group of older players ($23 million if Rivera's option is not exercised). We could be paying $13 million in 2013 for three hitters who hit a combined .257/.314/.369 in 2011. Keep in mind, this group includes two players who were so bad in 2011 they were designated for assignment and dumped by their original teams, and a pair of homer-prone pitchers who made opposing hitters look like All-Stars outside of their friendly home parks."
Would ANY Dodger fan not have preferred that they resign Kuroda for another year instead of everything else they've done thus far?
A reasonable comparable for Kemp would be Carlos Beltran in his prime (when he signed with the Mets, though Kemp is two years younger than Beltran was and will probably hit for a little more power and average with a much greater likelihood of staying healthy.
Assuming Kemp rolls out six years of .295/.375/.515 (or .295-35-115-25) with good to average defense in center field for the majority of that, is he worth 20mm in today's dollars for each of those years? The answer is pretty obviously "yes". Kemp came to baseball later in his youth and continues to mold his athletic talent (he may be the best pure athlete in baseball) into the confines of his chosen sport. Clearly, giving *any* player an eight year contract is a "bad" idea, but Kemp's expected production and rate of attrition to said productivity make him the best possible bet for an agreement of such length and value.
Have to include the Jason Schmidt signing by the Dodgers. Three years for **47 million* got the Dodgers the grand sum of a 3-6 record, 43.1 ip, a 6.02 era and a 1.708 whip over the life of the contract.
I know that comps are lazy, but is a better version of Matt Stairs a legit comp for Decker? Similar body types and swing profiles (Stairs a bit better on the contact front, but Decker doing it at a younger age for level).
One could make the argument that if you "found this unreadable", you should simply *not read it*. Another shining example of 'anonymity + public forum = unwanted (and unwarranted) advice'.
Jason's style is clearly that: a style. If it isn't your choice, don't advantage yourself of the content. Part of the fun of his articles is sifting the verbiage for the baseball content, which is an experience not offered by any of the other content on BP.
assuming the power is where you expect it to be, .275/.340/.475 with 15-20 homers and 20-25 sbs seem about right? plays really well in center, less so in left (assuming sands goes to 1b in place of loney or ethier is traded), but certainly suitable for a cheap starter, no?
Where would Jonny Venters have ranked on the top 10 25 and under (he's a mid-March birthday, so he just missed the cutoff)?
We finally receive the Texas-By-Way-Of-Brooklyn perspective, and one that is long overdue. Welcome to BP, Professor, and the next Boggs are on me.
Saito has had a ludicrous statistical MLB career (recall, he was a 36 year old rookie). Career totals: 2.19 era, 1.002 whip, 11.0 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9. Yikes.
That may have been a misread on my part. As an addendum, I would probably non-tender Martin and let AJ Ellis and whatever cheap caddy LA can pick up handle the gig. An interesting pursuit could be Victor Martinez, if you think he can catch for a couple of additional years, but you'd have to assume he's got two years at catcher, at most, and then will have to move to first base. Is a four year, 45mm contract reasonable for him? One would think that would obviate a charge at Fielder, however.
Boy, yknow who'd look good at catcher next year? Carlos Santana.
Loathe though I am to disagree with Christina, certain of the above moves seem pretty shortsighted to me. Pavano? Kuroda on a likely downslope? Konerko the same?
They should offer on Lee, but won't get him. That said, I'd concur with loading up on short-term, heavy incentive offers to Webb, Bonderman, and Kevin Millwood to fill out the rotation and take some of the burden off Billingsley and Kershaw. A rotation of Kershaw-Billingsley-Lilly-Webb-MillwoodorBondermanorHarang, with Ely and the like prepared to fill in as injury/need requires, isn't half bad. Dodgers Stadium also tends to be a sovereign specific for aging pitchers looking to put together One More Year for One More Contract, so I think such offers would be smiled upon.
The one move I do support is moving Loney and Theriot, with the addition of a mid-line pitching prospect, for Fielder. The Dodger offense was woefully short on thump last year, and Fielder would certainly provide the thumperacity you'd look for, while also not locking you in to a long term deal (fat doesn't age well, and I'd love to steal A-Gone after 2011).
As to the outfield, I have no issue with some Frankenbeast of Jay Gibbons/Bill Hall/Brad Hawpe/Jose Guillen (also on one year, incentive laden deals) keeping left field warm for Trayvon Robinson's ultimate appearance. Assuming that is done, invite every second baseman in organized baseball to take a shot at 2nd, but only if DeJesus can't handle the job. I'd also see if Kansas City or Anaheim (to Hades with that silly other name) are willing to punt on Gordon or Wood yet, and give them a shot to unseat Blake (thereby turning him into the supersub he should be) or at least provide a cushion if he gets old faster than he has been. Having that flexibility also means you can load up on the bullpen arms, which you'll need with this starting rotation.
The above moves give the roster flexibility, allow for the addition of payroll via trade during the season, and doesn't lock LA into any long term deals, so that they can lust after A-Gone, Weeks, Aaron Hill, etc., and extend Broxton/Kemp/Ethier/Billingsley/Kershaw to long term deals.
1. Furcal (ss)
3. Kemp (cf)
4. Fielder (1b)
5. Ethier (rf)
8. Martin (c)
Interesting challenge trade: Chris Davis for Cameron Maybin? Marlins have a hole at 3B with Cantu gone. David Murphy, while a solid 4th OF, doesn't strike anyone as a long term starter for the Rangers and Nelson Cruz is over 30 already.
Wal-mart is a manipulative company that preys upon the ignorance of the less fortunate, all the while crushing small businesses and affecting local economies by accepting public subsidies. It's rather basic, actually. Wal-Mart is a breeding ground for complacency, masked as utility and affordability. Wal-MArt is nothing more than a dollar store run by a family of tyrants. Death to Wal-mart!
admit that you updated Scutaro just to use the alliteration of "his heel's healed"!
Regarding Billingsley and his conditioning (or lack thereof): if anyone watched the game on Sunday, Chad was POURING sweat from the first pitch - I understand we're talking about Atlanta in the mid -Summer, but the poor kid looked like Patrick Ewing from the mid 90s out there.
KG, thoughts on Kyle Russell? Still King too much, but he's crushed the ball all over the league. Fine, he's 23 in A ball, but .281-32-11 with 70 walks in 611 minor league at bats is nothing to sneeze at.
That's what I call service! Thanks!
Surprising there's been a lack of love for Kyle Russell - he's SMOKING the ball in low A and seems to have minimized his contact issues...
+1 I'm your 3rd. Great article.
My immediate guess is that he probably got caught taking a supplement sold over the counter at gnc/vitamin shoppe that was recommended to him but, unknown to him, had a banned substance in it. Same thing with JC Romero on Philly.
Michael Taylor at 55? That\'s high, no? He\'s old for his league and has shown good, not great power.
I second that question. Wondering KG\'s thoughts on Maxwell.
I would give Maddux a contract to just hang around the clubhouse, play cards with the pitchers, and spout advice on pitching; designated older brother or something. He OOZES professionalism in the best possible way.
How can you say Salty will get his shot in Texas with Laird gone? They have Teagarden and Ramirez so it\'s still an incredibly crowded backstop situation. Unless there is some word from Texas that has anointed Salty the lead in the competition...
Agree entirely. Someone please explain to me what Jack Wilson will bring to the Dodgers that some combination of Hu and DeJesus wouldn\'t, and at a cheaper price? His Eckstein scrappylittlewhiteguythatisn\'treallythatgood-ness?
I\'d let Manny walk. The outlay and the headache are going to outweigh his benefit for a deal exceeding two years in length. Instead, and given that the White Sox are now apparently in rebuilding mode, how about sending Scott Elbert and Hu to the Sox for Jermaine Dye (11mm through 2009 with a mutual option for 2010)?
I like the concept of signing The Big Unit as a Sunday starter to a one year, 10mm or so deal. The depth of the Dodgers rotation would be substantial and give Johnson the flexibility to skip starts here and there to rest his back.
My other move would be to chase Brian Roberts HARD, up to (but not including) sending McDonald to the Orioles for him. Kershaw, McDonald, etc., are off the table, but I would propose a package of Lambo/Withrow and see if I can get the Orioles to bite. If not, I\'d go with DeWitt at 2B, DeJesus at SS and fill third with Abreau and retreads (Russ Branyan?) until I can figure out a long term answer.
2B Brian Roberts
C Russell Martin
LF Jermaine Dye
RF Andre Ethier
CF Matt Kemp
1B James Loney
3B Blake DeWitt
SS Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
LF Jermaine Dye
RF Andre Ethier
CF Matt Kemp
2B Blake DeWitt
3B Third Baseman To Be Named
SS Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
Jason Schmidt/Hong Kui Cho
Dodgers: Buy out Penny, all FAs but Manny walk; Manny for 3/70 or he goes as well. Bills/Kuro/Kershaw/McDonald/Kuo, Pedro as a one-year Sunday starter, keystone Hu and DeJesus, DeWitt at 3b.
With all due respect, trading Billingsley and McDonald for Peavy is a gargantuan misallocation of resources. Dealing two younger, cheaper, under team control pitchers for an injury suspect expensive starter? I\'m not convinced that Peavy is better than Billingsley right *now* on a pure talent level, much less when you allocate their wildly disparate salaries.
Given Kuo\'s injury history, is there any chance left that he can maintain his health as a starter? A youth movement of Billingsley-Kuroda-Kershaw-Kuo-McDonald sounds good (and cheap) to me....