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Doesn't MLB need to bring some of its relative penalties for drug use into line with reality sometime soon? Treating dope-smoking as the same as PED use when technically, players are allowed to toke up in Colorado dugouts is kind of crazy. I'm all for PED suspensions. But using ADHD drugs and smoking weed are fundamentally different.
Style bible. All publications have one. Except, as far as I can see, BP.
This was BP's frivolous day, right? Let's not have another one soon, even if it is the off-season. Between this article and Quinton's 2nd advertorial for whatever business school he just graduated from, it has me reconsidering why I pay for this site.
I'm not sure what value the application of MBA ideological nonsense has to business, let alone baseball.
This is sort of fan-boy level goop, methinks. Makes me wonder how serious I should take it.
But...Dusty Baker is a pitcher-destroying crappy manager, and if someone can show me how that's related to "diversity" or race one way or another, good luck.
Nice to see <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> getting the world series as right as it does everything else...
Gibbons used Price in relief because he didn't have any left-handers in the pen.
Don't we really want all three of them to shut up. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=25563">Buck Martinez</a></span> has been driving me crazy for years, to the point that having Reynolds around is a relief...
Is that a phantom Cubs win?
Hmm. Didn't think the bat-flip was exceptional. Methinks you're pressing your materials...
Yep. That's just about how I experienced it. Brilliant.
Sun gas? Really?
Aside from the gaffe with the A's and the Red Sox, none of the mistakes are very far off the mark. Give yourself a break.
Strange omissions, like the Cubs drafting <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68520">Kris Bryant</a></span>...
Good stuff. But before you do analysis of regular player injuries, don't you have to distinguish between contact or "incident" injuries, like Kang's, and "breakdown" injuries, where it's a muscle strain, etc.
Can you clarify that remark about Latos being a clubhouse nuisance?
I really like your stuff, but sometimes you should also talk to your mother. This is one of those instances.
How about a little more baseball and less you, eh?
Who the hell is "Big Time Timmy Jim"?
um, I don't think the Dodger's AAA farm team is in Albuquerque anymore. They got tired of over-estimating the hitting skills of their players...
Nice stuff. I really liked the Twitter exchange. Yost must be funny guy.
Very smart article. Thank you.
This is sharp analysis. It's even decently written!
Ben Carswell's reason for preferring Machado has some logic problems. Or writing problems. Please fix.
Terrific article. I'm still a little puzzled about where Goldschmidt gets that torque from.
"but there are undoubtedly positives to his game too which deserve mention". Boogles the imagination trying to decipher what you might mean here...
This was mildly entertaining the first time. Now? ahhh...
I really wish you'd stop representing <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> as a person. It isnt a person. It's a set of assumptions, the most important of which is that any given phenomena will continue to do what it has already done, subject to general norms. When it doesn't, PECOTA projects to conservative variances on the available norms, with several other less important assumptions playing into it: mostly that the league figures out rookies after 80 games (prominent in the above) and that old guys lose their skills as they get older.
Most of all, I wish you'd stop representing PECOTA as an intelligent person. I know some straight linear projections that are just as smart, and dress better.
Nice nuance on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102745">Dominic Smith</a></span>. This is the sort of analysis I come here for. //thanks
"<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60408">Randal Grichuk</a></span> is a better than the media gives credit." A better what? Toe tapper? Belly dancer?
Don't you guys have an editor to ensure basic English is being written?
Uh, that last part doesn't make any sense at all: you "asked some members of the prospect team which second base prospect they’d start a franchise with"? and then you talk about Mazara. He isn't a 2nd baseman, and the thought of Judge playing second is funny.
I didn't realize Twitter was an analytic tool.
Can't Austen Wilson simply get another bat from the dugout?
Very useful article, and well written, too.
erraticism? I'd hate to wake up some morning and have that crawling across my skin.
The 1000 excuses for why Adalberto Mondesi doesn't hit continues. All I saw in that video clip was an awkward swing.
Is it possible to "crack a backlog"? Noooooooooo...
Gold? From a bunch of grade 9 students who've overdosed on their Ritalin? I agree with the previous two posters. This whole thing was an insult to our intelligence. The current crop of guys at BP need to convince us that they know something worthwhile, which they haven't done yet. How about a couple of months of deadly serious analysis without any use of cliches and without stupid spelling and grammatical errors? That might work.
I really hope you NEVER do this again.
Also, Weaver's fastball will be 54 mph in 2017, not 84.
I'm paying for a baseball site, not a humour/work-camp for creative writing dropouts...
Yeah, really. Answer the question. Why didn't they shift Russell across and bring up Alcantara?
Nice piece of thinking and writing. We need more of this sort of thing.
ah, I hate to have to point this out, but "plus-plus" is two letters fewer than "double-plus", and the term "double-plus" is an uncomfortable reminder of Newspeak from George Orwell's 1984. Which I'm sure you've read.
I get what you're saying, but at what point does "tools-based evaluation" simply cease to be sabermetics and become a jargon-loaded update of all those old farts sitting in the dugout jawing about "intangibles". 1200 minor league ABs with a .295 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> tells you that this is a player who isn't getting on base enough, and doesn't seem to be learning a skill that's pretty well requisite to playing major league baseball.
I don't get it. Mondesi's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> over 1200 minor league at bats is under .300 and his <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> is under .700. He's in AA, sure, and his OBP .284, lower than his career ML mark. Given that I can probably find you a half-dozen SS who can hit better, I'm forced to conclude that you're grading this kid primariy on his bloodlines. He's never walked the walk.
Uh, that's not <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103946">Joan Baez</a></span>. And if it is, why didn't you ask him about his feelings for Bob Dylan?
Not sure how <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17401">Paul Molitor</a></span>'s success in Min. can be "ongoing", given that it's his first year managing...
not to mention the endless cliches and mixed metaphors...
That isn't what "slow burn" means. Yrs, The Dept of Proper Cliche Use...
Isn't everything short of a Martian invasion safer than betting on the roadrunner to finally fall prey to Wile <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=E" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('E'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">E</span></a>. Coyote? And since when was betting an investment? Try thinking harder and using fewer cliches...
According to I-Tunes, all these podcasts are "explicit". I have absolutely no idea what they mean by this. Stop swearing so much? What?
Very nice stuff...
It's still beating up on silly old men (or shooting fish in a barrel) even though you did show restraint.
In a tight-knit and overly competitive league, this lends itself to bidding up competitors. If one owner figures out another owner is determined to get, say, Jung Ho Kang, what's to prevent that owner from bidding $15, and inflating Kangs price by $12 (I'm using your figures)?
Hey, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/wilson_karaman">Wilson Karaman</a>. You don't hoe a road. You plough it or grade it. You hoe a "row"--usually of beets, or carrots. Get your metaphors straight. Or, better, don't use them at all.
<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> only projects a career peak TAV of .270 and 11 homers for Correa? Too bad PECOTA can't bet real money...
That's not true, actually. A consensus of opinion on Correa had him ready late in 2015 or at worst, early 2016. Lowrie isn't really much of a shortstop, meanwhile, but could play 2nd or 3rd--or get traded for something good at the deadline, which is, I suspect what the Astros had in mind before they started doing things like win 10 games in a row. They've arrived earlier than they expected, that's all.
Well, I just read a transcript of the rant, and minus the hilarious number of expletives, I pretty much agree with Price. If you're going to lose your mind, a mashup of truly stupid questions is a fairly understandable reason.
I'd kind of prefer it if you guys kept the city-specific stuff off this part of the site, or mark it more clearly so it can be avoided. This is basically fan-boy material, I'm afraid, and a distraction for serious baseball watchers.
all strikes me as pointless speculation. You should take Sheehan's advice.
Oh, come on. If I draft <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31345">Jeff Francoeur</a></span> again, and he turns into Jeff Francoeur again like he always does, I'll have to shoot myself.
The Jays aren't going to grab him either. EE isn't good to play 1b more than half the time, so they require Smoak's defense==which Quentin can't provide.
In a sense, the demise of players like Quentin has more to do with the growth of pitching staffs than anything. The answer for baseball is to extend the 25 player rosters to 26 players.
Ah. The Free Heroin marketing technique. Give it away for a while, and when the addicts start lining up, make them pay.
That's acceptable, I suppose. But as a main site subscriber, I'm wondering how much that's going to cut down on the volume of content to the main site.
Given that the Rockies won 2 games--or 100 percent more than any other team--shouldn't they have been #1. Oh, wait, they're a long way from the eastern seaboard...
Excellently thought out and written.
Good stuff, particularly on Almonte
Why on earth is BP sending nine-year-olds to scout Spring Training. I don't get it. Oh, wait...
Nice stuff. But can you guys all stop using the term "slashed" as a synonym for "hit". You can't slash anything with a rounded object. "clubbed" might work.
Too many moving parts in Baez's swing. Not sure bat speed can overcome that.
Okay. Read them all. This last one was the best because Laurila doesn't seem to have a man-crush on him like the rest of you. And I'm fine with all this overkill provided it means you're going to make an effort to suppress the collective man-crush for the rest of the year.
Is there a glossary of terms somewhere? I keep losing track of what "ADP" means. In the old days, you used to hypertext relatively new technical terms.
Brilliant work. Thank you.
"The Padres have—mostly—toed the line between acquiring old, overpaid veterans and young, unproven players by nabbing hitters in their mid 20s such as Upton and Norris". According to Wikipedia, "toe the line means either "to conform to a rule or standard, or to stand poised at the starting line in a footrace."
If you're going to use cliches (not recommended) at least use them correctly.
Also, a regression back to last year isn't a regression unless last year was itself a regression. in either case, you're in ontological difficulties.
Agreed. I know it's fun to be witty, but deliver the bread first, eh? Same goes for that Steve Matz mess. I don't come here to experience the wit of the writers. This is a baseball statistics site, not a rest home for over-aged creative writing students and under-talented stand-up comics. Geez....
To help out those of us who either play Scoresheet or are simply baseball fans, it would help if there was a clear definition (on record or occasionally iterated) of what a dynasty league is, how it differs from Roto and its variations.
Do you really want Sousa inhibiting a role? I know you're suggesting he become a LOOGy but still...
I don't get BP & PECOTA. If you keep dressing up the village idiot and pretending it's a supermodel, it doesn't raise the probability that it will actually turn into a supermodel. It's still the village idiot.
All this is based on Rios' capacity to play up to his skills. Alas, that's one of those "intangibles" that Rios has never delivered. Give me Pollock.
This confirms what I always suspected while I was catching: only catchers really matter...
It's bad enough that you make a cheesy pun out of Betts. But then you have to shout about it. Geez....
How a player (Sano) can go from 14th to 12th without playing a minute (and growing a year older) eludes me. I'd like to see the analytical science involved in that one...
I'm not at all clear what role Profar will have if he is okay, because of the presence of Odor. Basically, the Rangers have two high-talent players at the same position, unless they're able to pawn Elvis Andrus and his truly dumb contract off on somebody (which seems unlikely, since they're been try to do that for more than a year.
I hear talk of starting Profar off at AAA, but that just delays the problem. Is the plan to keep him at AAA until he proves he's okay and then trade him (or Odor) off for something valuable? It seems likely that Profar will go because he can also play shortstop, and thus will be more attractive to other teams.
What's your take on this?
How does Pecota know that Pedro Strop wears his hat the same way Fernando Rodney does?
This is like fan-mail to a hand calculator...
So long as you guys don't reveal the basis on which you're making your judgments of value, I'm not only not biting, I'm annoyed. Because the scoresheet SIM is a limited replication of baseball realities, I'm a lot less interested in subjective opinion about player value than I would be if this was fantasy. You guys need to explain why you think what you do, because I've got guys in my leagues who can and do explain their judgments.
It's nice to see BP staff making fun of PECOTA like the rest of us. That said, I'd prefer it if you fixed it. my problem is trying to figure out how the fancy acronym translates to "blunt instrument." Why not simply call it that?
Kidding aside, what are the odds of Pena returning to the majors in 2015. Don't they kind of like him in Japan?
Not clear to me how you could rate Perez, with an OBP under .300, above Martin and his +.400 OBP. Sure, Perez is young. That just means he's going make more outs over the years. And out-machines are not valuable scoresheet properties. Martin's OBP is likely to regress, but so is Perez's number of games played, which is, as far as I can see, his sole virtue.
So what IS your rationale for rating Perez as the #3 scoresheet catcher?
Don't you think the Bruno Mars comp on Francisco Mejia is a little unfortunate, given that Mars' most famous moment was a baseball-awkward positioning with Miley Cyrus? Is that appropriate to a catching prospect?
"putridity"? Nah, I don't think so...
Martin's OBP was .402, his OPS was .830-something. That makes him a "great option" in all but the dimmest fantasy universes, no?
Distance isn't the only issue with fly balls. My understanding is that the air on the west coast is heavier with moisture, and thus, with great resistance a fly ball that might travel 330 feet in Atlanta might only travel 300 at Petco.
Smart article. Thanks.
You forgot about Rene Rivera in SD, who's supposed to be an elite framer, and can hit a little bit. I think Fedrowicz is minor league depth.
Another blunt instrument from BP. "Jose Fernandez might miss a portion of the 2015 season"? He'll almost certain miss 2/3rds of the season. And by the way, I'll take Cleveland at 28-1 odds.
Maybe the fix is relatively simple: Someone upstairs in MLB tells the umpires that having an idiosyncratic strike zone is not a human right or even a form of creative self-expression, and the umpires start calling the actual strike zone.
That Giancarlo Stanton has a murderously quick swing. A thing of beauty.
Matt Sussman's vote for David Price as AL-MVP is indefensible. Most of his counting stats are down from the last two years, and his tenure in Detroit was unremarkable. Yeah, yeah, Trout fell over backward trying to make one catch, but really, be serious...
Peraza and Fulenchek are identical twins, right?
You were kind of having too much fun with that. What struck me is that Hamilton wasn't getting near most of those pitches.
Nice, nuanced analysis. Thank you.
Detroit's basically-all RHB offense kind of negates Baltimore's bullpen, where two of the best pitchers are lefties. That may be a fairly profound factor.
Nice stuff for a staff-collaboration. The only problem is that one of you needs to be the proof-reader. This is not a trivial thing, and I'm not being a pedant. There are times when BP reads like a website run by grade 5 students.
Very good article.
In drawing #2, just exactly what is that long thing coming out of his pants and fondling the bat?
Pomeranz will likely be starting next year in Oakland, which pretty much makes him a keeper, doesn't it?
A little less creative-writing school wit, and a little more beef in the sandwiches, eh? "I haven’t been as stubbornly high on as many players as Hosmer over the years." Please note that Hosmer is one player, and parse that sentence with some care. Geez....
I'm still trying to figure out what a "bulk of a brunt" might be. I sort of understand the "brunk of a bulk" (or hulk), but this one eludes me.
Okay, I'll bite. What's a "Chad Curtis"?
Really interesting stuff. Thanks.
I'm betting that the telling data point would be the average speed of fastballs. It's probably up 2-4 mph even since 2000, and certainly since 1985. Any way of figuring that out?
Also, nightmares aren't fruit, and so don't come to "fruition". They tend to do things like "strike", or roll over their victims.
uh, this feature is morning coffee, and it's been served in the afternoon two days in a row.
last I checked, Drew Pomeranz was on Oakland's DL....
Absolutely my favourite thing on BP, this stuff.
When Fernandez went down, I assumed it was because no pitcher can throw a slider as extraordinary as the one Fernandez regularly threw without torquing your arm in destructive ways. I suspect his pitch ratios will show he was throwing a lot of sliders.
The flaw in all this, methinks, is in treating Espinosa as if he's the equal of the others.
best line of the whole thing...
Or, the way things are going this year, a TJS patient.
I must admit I'm now looking closer at pitchers who know how to pitch than I did a few months ago.
Is romantic love of this sort even allowed in baseball? I read and then reread this piece, and almost none of it made sense. This is worrisome, given that I drafted Tapia in two Scoresheet leagues on your recommendation.
Clinton also scored those 20 unanswered runs with Burt Reynolds in RF. Presumably with his toupe glued on firmly...
Suggesting that Wait Weiss had a more "obscure" career than Brad Ausmus ignores everything but longevity. Weiss was a fine defensive shortstop and a decent hitter. Ausmus may have been a bright guy and a decent defensive sub, but he was among the worst hitters of his era, and arguably the worst hitter to have had a career as long as he did, bad enough to have acquired the nickname "Bad Ausmus."
what a "very slightly open stance" might be eludes me. Thinking about it makes me a little totally crazy.
The Mets AAA team isn't Buffalo. He's been hitting in the PCL. Even so, I'm betting you're wrong about his ability to hit well.
There's something wrong with the way PECOTA prejudices catchers. And what gets Michael Roth such upside? Is PECOTA chuffed about players who have the same name as novelists?
This is everything the Preview of the NL east wasn't. Brilliant, serious analyses. Thank you.
Aw, come on. Can we just shut down the creative writing workshop from now until the season is 10 days old, so we can get some serious analysis?
This would have been a lot more useful without the distraction of the self-consciously witty headings. It also appears to expose PECOTA as a blunt instrument (again...)
I dunno. This seems like a very blunt instrument to me, one without anything to compensate for early career adjustments amd contingencies (v. Profar) or genuine breakouts (Chris Davis).
This is great stuff, and among the areas where the new BP regime is a big improvement over the old. Keep it going.
That's a really helpful review, so thanks. The bonus was the link to the Wallace Shawn essay, which is amazingly coherent and calm about a subject nearly everyone is hysterical about. So I owe ya two.
Now I'm going to go download Hayhurst's book.
Great stuff, as usual.
I was trying to remember what my mother once said about staying clear of the cookie jar right after she got her medical marijuana when I read lipitorkid's 3rd comment. This piece went on waaaaay too long.
Whoops. it is now.
Interesting stuff, but the 2nd clip on Moore isn't there.
Unless you're prepared to reveal the basis on which you've ranked those players, I don't think this is even vaguely useful.
Devon White? Really? Maybe most fluid and fun to watch when he was on his game. But I saw a lot of games in Toronto where he was on some other planet, usually when Joe Carter wasn't playing right field. The joke in Toronto during those years was that White didn't play for the Jays, he played for Joe Carter.
The entry about Wilson Betemit leaves me wondering if it is as empty as it appears. A few of you guys at BP need to realize that being witty is a pretty empty exercise unless you actually deliver the goods along with it.
This is interesting, but if we follow your analysis, there's going to be a huge crop of good systems at the top, and little at the bottom: you've listed 20 systems as heading up, 4 holding stead, and 6 as fading--several of which are already faded...
Doesn't projecting guys like Youkilis, Berkman and A-Rod, who won't play at all in 2014, kind of undercut PECOTA's practical credibility. And when I see Justin Morneau, who has a job in a hitter's paradise for 2014 drop 2.1, I wonder how sensitive PECOTA is to real world data.
I'm assuming that the b/t for Ward is ass-backward. If not, he'll be the first leftie throwing 3b in living memory...
Neither did Kyle Drabek, who's most likely to end up as the 5th starter.
A man who can't think very clearly?
Ben Lindbergh nailed it with the word count alone.
This is really, really interesting.
While I think the Pirates do need to resign Burnett, I wondered why Cole wasn't mentioned as their about-to-be ace.
which are famously reliable projections of past performance...
Brilliant thinking and writing.
I'd be interested in some numerical figures attached to those rankings, along with an explanation of how you arrived at the numerical figures. Otherwise, for a serious scoresheeter, this is just dogs barking.
So, the Trevor Bauer love is completely gone?
I like Parks as a baseball analyst. But really, this isn't a creative writing site. Is it?
Okay. That was fall-down funny.
Terrific, subtle article, right down to the Stravinsky reference.
Rubio's comment is right out of the Sparky Anderson Self-Help Therapy manual. The correct comment should have been "Grow up and Get some Discipline." (The capital letters are free."
that's some hammer he's got. Looked like A.J.Burnett's.
There's still the A's in the AL, and Jim Leyland's still smoking cigarettes in the Tigers' clubhouse. And the Pirates were a lot of fun even if all that's left to root for in the NL is money or machines.
This is consistently the most interesting analysis on the site. Thank you.
That was depressing as hell. And I didn't understand a word of the Lindor comment.
So really, what is Caddywhompus? Where does the term come from?
Pretty great piece. Thanks!
This is why marketing schools should be carpet bombed.
Another question this article raises is where Cory Dawkins' regular injury status column went to, and why it disappeared without an explanation.
Gibbons has always been adept at handling bullpens, and he's making Farrell look even worse than he was last year. Now he's figured out how to construct an offense. His usage of the various parts has been text-book brilliant, particularly with his use of the minor parts like Kawasaki and Davis. He's even managed to turn Rasmus into a happy, useful ballplayer (although touch wood on that one. His player-handling skills are making AA look like the genius he is.
If Gohara turns out to be the second coming of Sid Fernandez, there are worse fates.
Hey! Can we stop ragging on poor Ryan Doumit! He has feelings...
Please stop calling right-handers "northpaws". I mean, really. Thank you, and we can now return to normal programming.
Agree completely with the last comment. Brilliant. At least part of Linsecum's problem is his catcher...
Yeah, a terrific feature. Keep it up.
Not sure why that would be a problem unless they had turf around the plate and on the basepaths at the metrodome. catchers will be the least affected by turf. And the equipment improvements would more than make up for that.
Carlton Fisk was 6-3, which for the era was equivalent to 6-7 given the improvements to diet, conditioning since then. He caught about 2400 games, so I'd think the worries about Mauer staying at catcher might be overblown.
Thoughtful piece. Probably an impossible-to-quantify subject, but worth the effort.
What was the goal of this piece, anyway? To see which of the writers could out-cute the others? Fun, but I didn't see a single useful piece of information in the entire thing.
All very bitchy, but sort of fun anyway...
Because you're Chomsky, and wrong about everything?
Not sure why you're putting this all on Gibson, who's seemed as irritated by all the strikeouts as Towers clearly is. This is going to be an interesting experiment. I don't think it'll work because Towers seriously lowered the teams talent level along the way, but it's still interesting. I can't believe he did it without consulting Gibson.
Hopefully a couple that occasionally speak to Scoresheet, which actually bears some resemblance to real-world baseball.
Not a good thing when 10 of the 11 writers go off their meds to write a joint article. Perrotto Hanrahan/Porcello trade is the only one that makes any sense at all.
My favourite part of baseball is the loose cannons. And there are other possibilities than "a rampant super-ego" (sic.) or carving out a legacy and annoying people. He could simply be having fun.
The right to make smart-ass remarks is the right that guarantees every other right we cherish, and that makes guys like Brian Wilson superheroes in my eyes.
There ain't nothing like irony. Terrific piece.
Wow. That's a bit of an eye-opener on how perception changes.
Fun article. Thanks.
That was before 1989. Now the oligarchs have reporters who tell the truth killed. But television is as bad there as here.
P.S. the commies are gone from Russia. The only ones left are in Canada, and they're all over 75, and usually dead drunk by 2 PM.
So, what does David Smith do now, and why was he only running Retrosheet at a SABR conference a few years ago?
Not sure why we're looking at this guy. Doesn't throw hard, can't throw to 1b, has a pencil-neck, etc. etc...
then please offer translations for those of us who don't know the Beatles lyrics, are Rolling Stones loyal, and could live without all the creative writing class stunts.
I'm still trying to figure out how you can dig yourself out of a hole. Aren't you supposed to drop the shovel and climb out?
the only one I didn't understand was Dustin Ackley as the unluckiest player of the year. Why? Because he plays in Seattle? Hasn't he just stunk up the place all year and that luck hasn't had much to do with it?
My conclusion from all this is that Howard needs to learn to hit the other way when there's a shift on if he wants to continue his career.
this would be better if someone proof-read it. Really.
Nice piece. Very clear about what he has, and might have.
What we need on this site is more hard analysis and less trivia and creative writing.
Please DON'T do that, because it will absolutely skew the analysis.I found Kevin's work useful for scoresheet, where defense and OBP matter. And even without it, I want to know how the rookies act as baseball players.
I'd be surprised if Mauro Gomez plays much in Boston. He's not a first division talent, and that's what Boston will demand. I hope, anyway, unless they want to be the new Baltimore Orioles.
Really nice piece.
Pretty funny. And surprisingly interesting, too.
I guess this was supposed to be funny. But it was devoid of any useful information as well as not really funny at all.
Stanton hit two homers last night, so I guess you should update that entry, etc. etc... Sorry to harp on these things, but this is valueless if its not kept up or has errors.
Very useful piece. Thanks.
Update on Jose Bautista? Remove the Jesse Litsch entry and replace it with "out of the season" (so it doesn't encroach on the Adam Lind entry? Date the Mark Lowe entry? Update the Lance Berkman entry, who wasn't on the DL for two weeks but has been put back on? Date the Juan Cruz entry? etc. etc.
This column is extremely useful if it's kept up to date and isn't treated sloppily. Alas...
That's what's wrong with Creative Writing schools: they teach students that there's only three writers in the world: Jane Austin, William Faulkner, and Franz Kafka...
Yeah, this is a revelation. There's no excuse for bad music. I'm just going to trade him off my scoresheet teams.
Doesn't this ever get updated? It's completely useless.
Aren't Jeter's "long runs to his right" roughly 3-4 feet?
Goblins aren't real. Grow up. (of course, that can be said of anyone who cares about baseball.)
This system is only useful if it's kept up to date, and done carefully--which it isn't. Check the entries on Stauffer, Carpenter and Bautista, which aren't even dated.
If there's a new update, it should be in red, with a timer on it that shifts it to grey after 3-4 days. Also, MLB regulars should be distinguished from minor leaguers: there's a note on Brandon Kintzler that says he'll go on an rehab assignment. That was April 30th. I'm assuming that he's buried somewhere in the minors, so what's he doing on this list? Fixing this can't be programming rocket science.
This column is one of the reasons people buy into the site, so it needs to be done right. And it isn't being done right.
Re: Colorado. Alternative#3 Get a better manager. Tracy has lost that team.
You know what I need to know? Where BP's coverage of the Futures Game is...
For a guy being chased by large black dogs, you're pretty funny. Good piece.
I don't think it's bad luck with his speed. Speed doesn't slump. Maybin needs a smart hitting coach, which San Diego clearly doesn't have.
Pretty smart stuff. Thanks, although I enjoy being wrong more than I should: My best one was "Carlos Delgado will never hit LH pitching, and won't do much of anything else." Every time I look at his career stats, I get a small rush from that humiliation.
Nice article, but you do realize that you've caused a situation where Marge Schott's kisser is going to be on the website's header all week, don't you?
Terrific, intelligent piece. I love it when you concentrate.
The cardinals released Linebrink last week.
Good article, good question. Love it when you're serious.
Hillenbrand is the comp. The difference is Middlebrook's ace-level defense.
About Freddy Freeman: Isn't a relay throw supposed to hit you in the hand? Just about every alternative I can think of is worse...
You're already the best writer on BP, and now I find out you're a Wim Wenders guy...What next? Have you ever seen his Tokyo Ga? Best documentary film ever made...
Excellent analysis, Geoff, (as usual) Every team should have a beat writer with more brains than the GM...
Brilliant. Thanks for this.
Didn't love it. More analysis, less creative writing, please.
Brian Wilson isn't funny? Be serious. Or rather...
More data, less creative writing.
Nice piece, Jay. Thanks.
Best BP piece in weeks. Thanks.
I really, really love you when you concentrate. But I don't want to have your children.
...Thus confirming what a blunt instrument PECOTA is.
Where's Chris Carpenter in this?
I'm not convinced the players association is four-square behind coaches, since they aren't members, and your second statement,which I'm assuming is a recommendation for pitchers hitting, simply doesn't make sense.
Can we have a little less creative writing and a little more hard analysis? Geez...
Why is Reynold listed at 3b when he can't play the position, and has been shifted to 1b????
Good luck, and don't ever use the word "indefatigable" in your new life. There's just no way of sorting out what it means. Try "fatigueless" if the urge recurs.
Made me laugh. Accuracy has a way of doing that.
Most witty writing on the site these days. Bravo.
Nice to get the essay finally published. And interesting, too.
Excellent stuff, Jay,
Great stuff, but I think everyone out here is agreed that we NEVER want to hear from that "I'll have his children" metaphor again. Okay?
The Jason Werth/WWE The Edge resemblance is pretty eerie. I think those guys actually are related.
I'd be more impressed if you resolved to pay more attention to scoresheet parameters.
Not quite sure this is the right moment for self-expression, but go ahead...
The Matt Schwartz link is completely unhelpful. It takes us to all the articles he wrote before he left.
except for the spelling error. "Sympathy"
Best statistical stuff anywhere.
That was just plain cruel. But very funny.
You're all going to die of cholesterol poisoning....
How do these ratings work for scoresheet, which doesn't give much value to SB unless the success rate is going to be above 75%?
Geez. Where's that Wilson guy from SF? The best facial hair EVER.
When Ben Revere is nearly as keepable as Matt Holiday, there's something wrong with the formats. I guess I've been ruined by Scoresheet, but these are all as useless to me as they would be to a MLB talent evaluator.
This is the best article BP has published in several years. Mind-boggling piece of analysis. Many thanks.
It bounced once...
Be helpful if this included scoresheet valuations.
Isn't Duncan on a leave of absense right now? I'm pretty sure I saw Derek Lilliquist come out of the dugout when McClelland walked in a run.
I think it's safe to say that by the time Hollywood gets around to making a movie about something, the Zeitgeist is somewhere else. In MLB, I'd suggest it's now lodged somewhere in Alex Anthropoulis' cellphone.
This is interesting enough, but where's the wrap-up of the June draft deadline? The things BP doesn't cover is becoming more important than what they do cover.
Well, I'm taking the upside argument in two scoresheet leagues, and I drafted him fairly high on the basis of what he did last season. I'm a believer.
Where's Tim Wheeler, who's having one of the top 5 offensive seasons in the minors, and plays CF?
Not unless he stops swinging at everything within 4 feet of the strikezone...
Good piece as always, Geoff.
Good writing. Keep this up, and you might find Christina's large mantle draped over your shoulders. That's something worthwhile.
Nice to see you in print, however temporarily. More...
Brilliant. Just plain brilliant.
Well written and informative piece as always, Geoff.
Isn't Posednik most famous for the incident a couple of years ago where he was at a bar drinking white wine with an attractive woman, and when she went to the washroom, he ordered and downed a 6 pack of beer before she returned?
(I'm still laughing about that one...)
They haven't been there. And I AM missing them.
1.) Most of the turnover is acceptable simply because it's inevitable. But I wish there was more candidness about it. I don't come here to read between the lines, and that's happened too much lately. If there's a legal reason clear reasons can't be provided, say so.
2.) More scoresheet related fantasy materials would be appreciated.
3.) The slow fade of Kevin Goldstein is a huge problem. Where was the Monday Morning column, for instance.
4.) I most miss Christina's wit, although Emma Span makes it easier to live with.
5.) Please fix PECOTA, or I'll find it hard to renew next spring.
Great article. Thanks.
I get the joke, but how do you know that?
Excellent detail on TOS. This column has become my first-read on the site: better than it's predecessor.
Yes. Really lovely nuances.
He didn't annoy me. I was afraid of him. He looks like Michael Jackson in Thriller.
Excellent, coherent, and to-the-point. Thanks for this.
Um, does this have anything to do with baseball?
But really, isn't this all balanced by the fact that it's a good thing for baseball when the Yankees lose?
I'm a 20 year scoresheeter, and I find this mostly incomprehensible, and when it is understandable, barely credible. Trying to reduce scoresheet value to a single number simply flies in the face of the SIM's complexity.
a comment and a question: That bullpen is going to kill you, and why were so few rookies held in that league?
This would all make sense if the world just kept going on as it has recently, and if the global economy wasn't hacking so vigorously at the ankles of the American economy. But that's what's happening, folks, and if the U.S. economy doesn't start producing something other than skanky bankers and tax exemptions, there's going to be a lot less disposable income around in five years to support MLB. And baseball is, after all is said and done, based on just that:disposable income.
Sheesh. All you guys defend PECOTA the way medieval bishops defended the flat earth theory. I'm a longtime subscriber and I find the site useful, but I don't use PECOTA anymore. It hasn't been the same since Nate Silver left, and won't be until you stop defending it and fix its bugs. The comps scandal this year is typical.
I wish you'd get to whatever your point is. I can't see it. AA, from where I sit, looks like a genius to me, and I can't find a mistake he's made. There's no point in finishing third, so he trying to do something different. There's risk in his strategy, but you gotta trust an ex-scoresheeter.
The padded van will be there to pick you up in a couple of hours. Pack your bag for a fairly long stay...
Agreed that this rating is ridiculous.
I now understand Sizemore's condition for the first time. Good stuff. You've got me as a fan.
You are in sooooo much trouble with those first three rules. And with a 24 team BL, you're going to find talent very scarce, particularly when it comes to frontline starters. (20 year scoresheeter)
Fine article. The impact of good offensive producers in offense-challenged positions is consistently underestimated.
Wow. This is the most interesting article I've seen on the site in three months. Bravo. This is why I subscribe. Go deeper on this, if you can, eh?
Not sure why PECOTA thinks Feliz will sport a .699 OPS after last year's .533, and that isn't going to make Scoresheeters like him. His defense might add a few points to his OPS, but his -.300 OBP and lack of a job will have us holding our noses and passing like we've done the last 5 years.
yeah, really, can we get rid of that electronic nanny device? It should be available only to BP staff, and they should have to identify themselves when they deploy it.
That's not true. Fukodome has an excellent arm, and you can't throw fastbooks 90+mph without arm strength and mechanics.
These are great. Haven't had them since Jay Del Mah over at @theplate.com was doing them. Many thanks.
You'd kind of have to add "Market Capitalism" to the Hall of Fame if you're going to elect Miller. Between the two of them, they did the most to make baseball a rich spectators game, a condition which at this point is the biggest threat I can think of to the health of the game. Watching a bunch of millionaires with gold chains around their necks and Maseratis in the parking lot is what I enjoy least about today's game.
Thanks for this. Very useful tool.
I'm not sure why you're suggesting that they go after a series of LHB (Hawpe, Drew, Gibbons, and consider trading RHB Polanco given your (accurate) comment that they're vulnerable because they lack RH batting skills.
Geez. None of this is going to happen. Let's move onto something worth analyzing, eh?
That was my thought. No serious math, so serious analysis and nothing I haven't seen in late-season newspaper articles.
All very interesting. Where the hell is Will Carroll's injury reports? How many days has it been?
Your logic is a little flawed. If we're operating a free-market, how do you even limit the number of MLB teams without restricting the market's "freedom? Kevin Goldstein and I and a couple of rich guys would, by your logic, have the right to operated our own MLB team. I'm just not sure that all rights ought to be conferred by money, which is what would occur if we let the free market rule in baseball.
Yeah, I've been going to mention that, too. It's distracting as hell.
Fabulous writing. Took me right back there.
The two best catchers in the game fill that profile perfectly: Mauer and Wieters.
Yeah, but they'd all want to play positions they were ill-suited for, and insist on batting 3rd. You'd never get them on the field for all the clubhouse fighting...
This is exactly what my mother said when I was seventeen. And despite my good character (I've always been a "character" kind of guy) she might as well have been talking to a bag of rocks.
Wasn't he run out of town due to physical conditioning? I remember Bill Jame's explanation: his addiction to "desserts of all kinds". I remember him looking like a walking donut at 3b.
Stop storing those nuts in your cheeks. Just because the BP mascot does it, doesn't mean you're obliged to.
Apparently you don't read many novels. Keep them Umberto Eco references coming, Christina.
Check the exchange rate. The Canadian dollar is roughly at par with the greenback. Plus it's prettier, and has a girl's picture on it.
Monkeys live in houses. Baboons, since they're our true ancestors, live in troops, so they get a barracks. Everything else seemed pretty accurate, though.
Interesting interview, in that I've never quite seen such a string of baseball cliches run together with this density. If I were running the Dodgers, I think I'd fire this guy, because he's not really looking at the players.
That little essay on Blalock was fabulous. You're now officially the L.F. Celine of baseball writing in my books.
I just went through an AL scoresheet startup, and the first round went like this:
Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Zack Greinke, Miquel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.
(Wieters went first in R-2)
From a scoresheet POV, the only poor pick there was Crawford, who's a Roto star, but not a great scoresheet property.
The skill is staying healthy? With a 600 OPS?
The system clearly doesn't calculate inside-the-head injuries/malfunctions, or Rios wouldn't get a green. With guys like him, the weight of a fat contract in their back pocket ought to be considered a major hazard.
That's exactly my question. Roto ain't the only game in town.
Hey! You can't call Youkilis fat!
Excuse me for not knowing, but what the hell is the SS/Sim and where do I find it? (I assume that "SS" means "scoresheet?
Well, I don't have a clue what that entire riff about Selig was actually about even though I know all the historical references, but it was somehow entertaining anyway.
Don't you mean the "Carl Lewis" Fan Club? Lewis was as juiced as Johnson was, but he didn't get caught. Coleman would have joined his fan club, methinks.
Oh, leave her alone. She writes the most interesting prose on the site, even if, occasionally, you can't understand it.
This is about baseball, not politics, so George Orwell and Politics & the English Language can be fooled around with.
I'll echo that view. I've been playing Scoresheet for 19 years, and have never quite been able to understand the attraction of rotisserie. The improvements to Scoresheet's SIM over the last five or six years have made the needed expertise and research much easier to cope with, so its hard to figure why serious statheads still play rotisserie.
Excellent take on all of it. That's two in a row you've nailed, with some of the best analysis I've seen in a long time. AA was in a tough spot, and he did his job better than his precedessor was able to in 8 old years.
I gotta give kudos to anyone who dislikes George Will this much. All you have to do is parse that quote to see how little Marx Will understands or has actually read. Meanwhile, I'm completely convinced by Joe's arguments that Selig's committee is nothing but window dressing to allow him to do nothing.
Well, that was one thudding cliche after another. He's certainly responded well to MLB's "how to talk to the media and say nothing" seminars.
Geez, lighten up, jashnew. Just because its a holiday is no reason to go off your meds.
The more interesting question than why Konishi voted for Cabrera is why he had a vote in the first place. There's got to be, what, 800,000 people in the world more aware of what goes on in MLB. That kind of gross ignorance sullies the voting process (more than it's already sullied by idiots)...
Elegantly reasoned and written, as usual. But us Canadians are your "neighbours" not your "neighbors", and yes, we are planning to take over. Honourably, of course, and favourably to u.
It's probably your BP subscription #.
A comment on the Rob Deer/Grant Desme comp: Tettleton/Deer were 3 true outcome players. If you only produce two of those 3 outcomes, You're a 4A hacker, at best. The difference is huge. If you're going to K all the time, you have to have other means of getting on base or you're going to fail in the majors.
BP evidently needs more subscribers from outside NYC...
Excellent analysis, as usual. Thanks.
Isn't a "golden sombrero" five strikeouts? Four strikeouts in a game is just a "sombrero."
The scuttlebutt in Toronto about Rios is that he's a 10 cent brain on a million dollar body, and was a major clubhouse weirdo from the moment he signed the big contract. Since he's more weirdo than airhead, maybe the White Sox can get his head screwed on straight.
Good insight about the Jays' lack of interest in obvious skills and their stupid adherence to "organizational priorities"--not to mention a couple of really accurate zingers about the Giants.
I know what this is really about: what does it say about you if you can wear a cup comfortably?
Great 20th century sport-writing. Trouble is, this is the 21st century...
Picking Derek Jeter at shortstop is like voting for George Bush because he was the President: what about the job they're actually doing? Isn't the all-star ballot for the players playing best at their position? If it is, find a shortstop playing better in the AL than Marco Scutaro.
Kentrail Davis was highly rated before the season, and had a season OPS of .900+. I gather his stock has dropped, but how far?
This kind of analysis is what I buy BP for. And as it happened, I was at that game, saw Holland pitch, and was impressed by him in a largely subjective way. Now I know why.
Greenhouse is a step ahead of the other contestants. Fairly lengthy step, too.
Brainy like Miss South Carolina, methinks.
Hey! Where\'s the coverage of the Caribbean World Series? Where\'s the coverage of winter ball been since Arizona?
Oh, god, not another bs-at-the-bar article about a bunch of players most of us can barely remember. In the scale of things-in-the-universe-that-count who goes to Cooperstown and why doesn\'t even register. It\'s for sportswriters who have nothing to do. How about working on the Pecotas, or updating the site\'s depth charts, which haven\'t been touched since last April.
n.b I\'m older than any writer on the site, so this isn\'t just youthful derision. It\'s OAP derision...
And hopefully, this will be the last of the blathering on about the HOF for another year. Enough already! Let\'s get on with what really matters: the pre-season...
I heard Huntington interviewed on Toronto\'s The Fan Radio today, and he noted that both players were javelin throwers, not cricketers. Didn\'t crack up when he said it, either.