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It would be interesting to see the same thing for starters in the 1-2 inning before their removal. Which ones are getting the hook, and which are being put through the wringer? Is it pitcher-by-pitcher, or is it just fast-hook managers? Who is really earning his pay out there?
Well, you have to consider the speed of the cops chasing them, and there is only really one cop on the beat there. Other than that, it is the lame tripping over the halt.
I was hoping he would not be the new <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31664">Grady Sizemore</a></span>. Maybe he can get a little bounce like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1037">Carl Crawford</a></span> has? We will see. A third of a season is not that big an indicator.
I don't know about your experience, but in my youth coaches put arms at short and 3B. I even played SS as a lefty because I was the kid that could make an on-target throw to first reliably (pitcher was taken already). I think that in my day coaches thought a kid making the throw to second or home to record an out was something of a fantasy.
Buxton rates to be at least as good as <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17870">Gary Pettis</a></span> who had a reasonably long career starting a couple of years older. Buxton has more power but draws many fewer walks than Pettis did, but should be a feature in center field in Minnesota for a long time even if he does not improve much. Alas, he would always be labeled a disappointment.
One might conclude from your comment on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52461">Welington Castillo</a></span> that the Orioles did not improve in framing. But it isn't like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57712">Matt Wieters</a></span> was good. Matt Wieters was worse. So the Orioles did improve even by moving to a "bad" guy because the guy before was worse, even though they are not getting "good" framing.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=82629">Earl Weaver</a></span> pinch-ran pitchers in the AL. I remember <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=19261">Mike Boddicker</a></span> being a pinch runner on several occasions. A pitcher is far more likely to injure himself pitching than hitting or running, especially if the player knows that he has that role on the team.
I do agree that players that are put in circumstances for which they are not trained or do not practice have a greater chance of injury. In some sense the DH is unfair because it puts pitchers that move from the AL to the NL in an injury position. Which league's 'fault' this is more or less a baseball-religion question.
Baseball is not only played at the pro level. Pitchers are often among the better athletes on their teams because at a young age they could throw hard enough and accurately enough to throw a strike. In my experience, at age 10 or so, they can also hit.
A completely social question is what effect the DH in the pros has on youth baseball. Some pitchers are even used as pinch-hitters. Yes, it is as rare as great-hit, great-field players.
So every pitcher in baseball basically has to be great when he takes the field. Some of those can hit decently. One had to become an outfielder because he hit way, way too well.
I actually like the DH in pro ball. But I worry.
Do the prior evaluations of pitchers (tiers, three-year predicted value) incorporate this?
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45536">Felix Hernandez</a></span> at 53. He is only 31, but the mileage on that arm is staggering. I am saddened.
Now that they show where balls went and whether they were called balls or strikes it is possible to say "what great pitch framing." For generation upon generation fans have blamed the umpire. Well, now we can prove that catchers cause umpires to make errors. If, as fans, we start crediting catchers for bad calls instead of umpires it will change how we view the catcher as a participant in the game as opposed to a ball-returning machine.
So much for calling a pop-up a "home run in an elevator shaft." Only 1 percent of pop-ups have that big exit velocity.
What about playing many positions early in the history of baseball? <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=30336">Honus Wagner</a></span> supposedly could play every position, but in the dead ball era, shortstop was by far the place to put him.
Taking away the requirement to "slink back" to the original team reduces the original team's bargaining power by a fair bit. I think the system completely changes the system for older players that may be worth the qualifying offer under the old system for one year, but could only secure a 2-3 year contract in any event because of age. Before, the QO completely killed the market for the player. Now, it isn't even that good an opening gambit.
I expect that Dan Duquette will consider signing him. The Orioles love a good price on a pitcher, even if it is overpaying for the performance.
I wonder if the jam Miller found himself in worried Francona. After all, the logic goes, if Miller is barely restraining them, who else stands a chance? As it was, Miller had difficulties in the next inning as well. One could view that as a reason to remove Miller (he was off) or to avoid a lesser pitcher (if Miller is having problems, nobody else stands a chance).
Three runs is not that much against the Cubs. Not when Miller is putting two guys on an inning.
How is their TV money tied to TV ratings? A team can have great TV ratings but be under a poor TV contract so that the two are out of proportion. Attendance is also not the same thing as the income from premium box seats. Baseball does not open its books, so it is hard to say how much of a cash cow it is.
Also, expenses are not only major league salary. I suspect clubs have different expenses for coaching and scouting, especially in the minor leagues and with respect to juvenile free agents. For example, they were subject to penalties for international free agent signings. http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sign-13-july-2-international-free-agents/
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17155">Orel Hershiser</a></span> had a save for the Dodgers in the NLCS in 1988. He wasn't left handed, but I think he should have been worth a mention being from the same team.
It appears you are not correcting the pitchers NIP runs for the catcher's framing runs. Is that correction in there, but unstated? It would seem terrible to give Bumgarner and Kershaw such high numbers if part of that is resting on Posey and Grandal. After all, given how those catchers did, those pitchers may not be as good as all that (though still good, as the correction would be on the order of 4 runs).
I don't think Showalter became the manager he is by taking a lot of recency (regret) bias out onto the field with him. High tension decisions like the Britton decision stick more. Yet his decisions often do not work out and he knows it. I think we can learn from him (perhaps not in this instance) to sometimes make the decision that does not feel the best right now (which Britton probably was) because we let our brain tell us the smarter thing. Reason being driven a lot by justification, not logic, Showalter may question whether that was the smarter thing and change his logic plan going forward.
Damn complicated stuff. I have a lot of respect for guys who can succeed long term in the face of the temptations to seesaw around in decision making.
Players change position in the NL all the time. Outfield to first base (or the opposite) for example, as part of a double-switch or a pinch hitter of the correct handedness. So it cannot be that what is written in the lineup card initially for the player must be eternal. It seems to me that if Rizzo could become a second baseman if a substitute came in for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45495">Ben Zobrist</a></span> (say an injury) then there should be no reason they could not switch. Perhaps it dawned on Hurdle that it was not a great objection, but of course, he could not say that.
I agree it was the balance of the pitching and the quality of the Toronto lineup. To a certain depth the Orioles do have a better bullpen than Toronto. But the Orioles had to go to the pen earlier. Then, they did not have any starters that could have helped them like Liriano did for Toronto. Toronto burned through its quality usual bullpen arms faster than the Orioles did, which is why they put a starter in.
I suspect that pitching both Stroman and Liriano in the Wild Card game was not the Toronto plan. They could come to regret it against Texas.
I am not so sure about the best GM sitting on the sidelines being worse than the 30th best GM with a team. At that point, you are having faith in the owner to pick the best GM. Were the Twins really run by one of the best 30?
Just like GMs make unfortunate acquisitions—Hello, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37512">Ubaldo Jimenez</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47591">Yovani Gallardo</a></span>—owners do also.
At some point on the curve you hit a point where it is a tomato-tomahto difference. Pitchers are more or less equivalent, but one gets more ground balls, and the other more strikeouts. One player hits for more average, but the other has better defense. I wonder at what point the tradeoff starts to happen in GMs if you break down their disparate skills.
What I don't get, is why batters don't just lay off his pitches until they get to 2 strikes. I haven't looked at data, but it looks to me that batters chase way too many pitches out of the bottom of the strike zone against Britton, and that they should have learned by now.
Stroman has pitched about 70 innings more than any of his other MLB seasons. There may be a reason for his bad run in September. Tillman is at 172 innings pitched, his fourth highest total. He has pitched 200 innings twice, in 2013 and 2014 (in which he led in games started). The playoff atmosphere takes weariness off the table for some pitchers. Is Toronto going to give Stroman the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=275">Kerry Wood</a></span> treatment?
This is off-topic (kinda), but they did not fly the eagles to Mordor because the Nazgul could fly on their winged beasts. The eagles would have been pretty easy pickings for the Nazgul.
This raises the issue of how <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> handles players with no quality comparison players, and in turn how BP chooses to project those players. If PECOTA had a comp-quality measure, it could cry out for help: "Please project these players a different way."
Despite all the one-run and extra-inning wins, the 2012 Orioles were not among the luckiest teams. Amazing.
I think maybe we should play a balanced schedule, and the team in the league with the most wins at the end of the regular season wins "the Pennant." The two pennant winners play in the World Series. That way, the teams winning the most of their 162 games from their pool of 15 teams are rewarded for their efforts.
I know, it was tried, but did not create enough TV revenue.
Thanks for showing us the trends deep into the position rankings. It would seem that two-catcher leagues are now making for pretty tough drafts.
It has been a season for shockingly good performance from certain middle infielders (Ramirez, Villar, Segura) along with recovery or overperformance from others (Altuve, Desmond, Murphy, LeMahieu). This really seems to have thrown off the expectation of relative positional performance at the top, but I can't say that I know if it is true overall. Is it?
I wonder what <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50155">Zach Britton</a></span>'s double-play percentage is on opportunities. He has like an 80% ground ball rate. That should result in an insane number of double plays when there is a runner on first.
I think it is hilarious that Dickey, a guy who relies heavily on a pitch that is like none other in major league history (the fast knuckleball), is the first column representative from 1994-2008 (with one exception).
While the current law suit is between private parties and New Jersey, maybe New Jersey could sue the Federal Government to have the law declared unconstitutional. Then, New Jersey could start the lawsuit in the Supreme Court. (U.S. Constitution, Article III, Section 2; 28 U.S.C. 1251)
Not that it is a big deal, but paid petitions (as opposed to those asking for a waiver of filing fees: prisoner petitions) succeed at about a 4% clip.
Is Hishashi Iwakuma scheduled for two starts next week? He looks to start on the 8th or 9th.
It is great to hear about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=28511">Dan Schatzeder</a></span> again. What is not to love about a left-handed reliever that can pinch hit?
My favorite is yellow hammer.
So <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=34484">Rajai Davis</a></span> is the very model of a modern major league baseball player. He's information information vegetable, animal and mineral.
Roster sizes would shrink or change. Why do you need 11-12 pitchers to pitch 7 innings? A team could go to carrying more position players. Baseball could reduce the roster size by two also.
Sad that Puig (and Gomez presumably) become droppable for Reddick. It is like the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1037">Carl Crawford</a></span> nightmare over and over.
You gave us 1969-1973 because they were divisional play. What caused the cliff-like drop in start length? The mound was lowered in 1968, so an adjustment should have happened then if it was cliff-like or have been more gradual.
I would think the ability to play multiple positions well would be a capability that would vary across players. Some people need to have a single predictable role, or would get confused in constant switches, such as might happen with a platoon situation at two different positions.
Mind you, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67049">Manny Machado</a></span> learned 3B is essentially no time to a very high level. I bet he could play anything. But I think that the ones that most benefit from multiple positions are not the superstars but an everyday player that creates cross-position platoon possibilities for his manager.
If the Yankees could only be about building the next great team this could work. I suspect that Steinbrenner is not willing to deal with his fan base should the Yankees go from average/average-minus to bad or awful. Taking the fastest route to the next flag does not mean that all paths there are acceptable to the team as a matter of the business necessities of fan tolerance for the team.
Other catchers have been doing better. ESPN and Yahoo each rank Wieters as the #7 catcher for mixed leagues behind Welington Castro.
The explanation is "Orioles Magic." You really should pay attention to their marketing department.
If there was a way to prove "throwing at the head" as an intentional act beyond a reasonable doubt, you would not need umpires: it would be fine with me if the police came down from the stands, cuffed the pitcher, and took him away. The charge would be along the lines of aggravated assault.
<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a> are inevitable because pitching inside is part of the natural battle for territory between pitcher and batter. Pitchers want the outside part of the plate. That means they need to own a certain amount of territory inside the actual plate. Are we going to punish batter that hit the pitcher with the batted ball? Can't we all agree that is also a 'bad thing' that happens in baseball: an off-balance guy getting a baseball at speed shot at him?
If we remove that battle, baseball dies more than a little bit. We have killed a little bit of baseball at the plate already with the collisions rule, and expanded that necrosis to second base. Why are we taking the battle out of baseball?
I think he probably means that he wants nothing to do with these guys who pitch to contact at the bottom of the strike zone. Think Zack Britton when he was a starter.
It seems Liriano may have reverted to good-Liriano/bad-Liriano form. He used to be maddening, maybe he will be again.
I wonder how much the decisions about "closing" are tradition-driven because of the coaches or players, and how much they are tradition-driven because of fan expectations. To a certain extent teams want to give the fans what they paid to come see. If you use your best pitcher to take over the jam when the starter loads the bases to start the seventh, what would the fan reaction be?
Were they E6-E9-E3-E2 home runs like I used to get?
Considering that you can spell "lousy" with "Jhoulys," you are right, they are just the same amount of fun.
What is the speed of a typical center fielder? 18.6 MPH is a good sprint (about a 12 second 100 meter dash). Not the stuff of collegiate scholarships, but good. (Usain Bolt: 23.7 mph http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2013/08/09/how-fast-can-a-human-run/)
How did the playing time risk affect the ranking of Reyes? Where would he be with a sure starting spot?
Thank you for the update. It helps to see which good/bad starts you guys think are flukes, and which are a change of direction for a player.
Has any outfielder has such a rapid descent as Gomez since <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1037">Carl Crawford</a></span>?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=30783">Hoyt Wilhelm</a></span> maybe? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoyt_Wilhelm
Or the Orioles, who are having their day in the sun but were lost for a long time. And will be lost again once the sun fades, as I thought it already had.
I guess I wonder if the Twins could do it. Are Sano, Buxton and Berrios still all prospects?
I think the strategy would be to start by trading for multiple major leaguers. As you step-down in value for the major leaguers, you can start to work prospects in. If you are talking current major league players, I think the Orioles could put something together with Machado (2019 free agent). I don't think the Orioles are going to keep Machado after arbitration runs out, so Machado and Jones (2019 free agent) for Trout (2021 free agent). Each year they get less value, but they get it for more seasons.
I am an <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a></span> owner, and my strategy was to put together the best scraps to get saves. (My league has a lot of categories, so saves have reduced value) Of the marginal people mentioned, who is the best? (No Boxberger, Street or Ramos)
I find that the problem I have trading players is that the reason I have these players is I like them better than other people in the league like them. So at the go I am looking at trading a player the other guy isn't that hot on for one that I am lukewarm about, but might be a better fit at the moment.
It is easier if players have shifted significantly in value over the course of the season leading to an imbalance. If I have a guy who worked out really well on the bench, a trade makes sense. But it is hard to establish that in the first month of the season so that kind of trade is not really a season-starting kind of trade.
It sure beats the heck out of the 1988 <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BAL" target="blank">Baltimore Orioles</a></span>. 0-21 to start the season, and a total of 104 losses.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66955">Nick Castellanos</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Freese">David Freese</a></span>? I wish this was a hypothetical question, but it is not.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102743">Chance Sisco</a></span> is a "future first baseman?" Ouch! The 2015 scouting report at least has him at 2nd, 3rd or corner outfield instead of catcher where his bat would play better. The Orioles sure could use a corner outfielder.
Your league is fairly similar to mine. It's a shame this article came out after my draft. This is a nice addition to the lineup.
I wonder if Kim would adjust in a reasonable time in AAA if spring training is not long enough for him. I understand that won't cure bat speed issues if that is really the problem. If it is something else, an intermediate step from Korea to MLB might be good.
I wonder how you can put a dollar value on Showalter's ability to take limited-use pieces and make a team. The man has to be underpaid. The one thing I have to give Angelos: he seems to have found a great marriage of GM and manager skill sets.
Can anyone explain how <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70371">Marcus Stroman</a></span> goes only 12-9 with that offense behind him?
Thank you for the story of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37587">Dan Johnson</a></span>. Your and his love of baseball are palpable.
The middle infield to outfield change is huge on an instincts level. Being <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45495">Ben Zobrist</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48560">Martin Prado</a></span> isn't a frequent skill set for a reason. If he can do it, the positional flexibility adds value.
I don't see why one season away from SS takes away from all the seasons he played there. This is not like Machado who has played hardly any shortstop in the major leagues. and wondering whether he could handle the position for a long season. Desmond has done it over and over.
Texas can also trade him. Where Desmond was unattractive to other teams because of the draft pick compensation, that is no longer an issue. He has a reasonable salary and no draft pick attached to him.
I love articles about why the people of baseball do the things they do, and this fits the bill. Baseball is played by (and umpired by) humans, and often that gets lost. I presume that catchers are aware of the bias for calls (if not the reasons) and that it could affect pitch framing. Do catchers frame differently on hitters counts and pitchers counts?
But is that a reach? You are even if you can get a player who generates $1 in 200 plate appearances. That is, unless you are committed to running an empty lineup spot for 200 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> if it does not work out.
As a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Reyes">Jose Reyes</a></span> owner, I know all about covering 200 PA.
You need to consider the opportunity cost (what was your alternative?). If you pass on a similar first-round value player that is 100% likely to be drafted in the first round, then you leave yourself little room to win value. The first round is often a round where you risk losing value because your player does not play up to the pick, not gain value because he overplays the pick.
The other players will also be considering their opportunity cost for taking Pollock, even if they hold a similar opinion to you. At that point, passing in the second round on Pollock becomes gambling on the ignorance of your competitors. Obscurity is not good security in other contexts, and I do not see why it would be in this one. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_through_obscurity)
How did <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70753">Dylan Bundy</a></span> make the list over Jonathan Gray? At least Gray pitches.
To clarify, for those who do not know who Peter Angelos is a mass tort lawyer who made most of his money representing people injured by asbestos against large companies. Asbestos litigation is perhaps the ultimate example of drawn-out never-ending litigation in the United States. Getting into litigation with him is a classic example of mud wrestling with a pig.
For a ballclub of marginal economics nothing is a substitute for filling seats in the short term. If the Mets can continue to win, media money can follow. I view this more of an investment than as a spree. They can sustain it if it succeeds.
I don't complete it because I cannot believe that anyone cares that I think.
My unscientific observation over the years is that while generalizations about defensive spectrum and offensive average can be made, there is some granularity. I don't recall many instances of tanking defense in the name of offense for CF like at 3B. Encarnacion and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Miguel+Cabrera">Miguel Cabrera</a></span> come to mind at 3B. More often, offense is tanked in CF for the defense, while at 3B the defense is more often tanked. CF offense benefits some from the CF often being the best athlete among the OF, even if not the best basher to keep things competitive.
What do your more scientific observations tell you?
I admire the Belichick-Kraft relationship because it fights this psychological incentive. It is a rare thing to fight the basic human need for security in the fan base.
People fundamentally value losses as more painful than gains are positive. Extra points are so sure that they are treated as in-the-bag by players, executives and fans. The pain they will experience on not getting that point when the two fails will probably not be offset by the psychological gains of the further points.
For a coach this translates into job insecurity if those incremental points are not points that translate into wins. So the go-for-two only happens when it is game-deciding because the coach does not want to lose his job. (Again, the pain of loss.)
As various pitchers continue to show us, ball clubs appear to disproportionately value being able to put someone out there fore 150 innings a year of average to above-average performance. In an era of pitching dominating, owners act like there is a pitching shortage. Go figure.
Once fact left out is that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17975">Andre Dawson</a></span> sucked up all of the love other teams' fans had for Expo players. I always thought Raines the better player, and made sure I had him in Strat-o-matic if I could get him. (Boy, showing age there!)
For the city of Chicago, your study may confuse fan happiness with fan optimism. Cubs fans are happy even when not optimistic. In my 30 years of direct observation, White Sox fans are happy only when optimistic. I have not found White Sox fans to be irrationally optimistic away from Reddit. I think you may be facing self-selection bias in those that use the Reddit.
Orioles fans are simply desperate, and that desperation takes over for good sense. Orioles ownership is desperately greedy. I am willing to lead a torches and pitchfork charge to change the ownership to one that will at least properly invest in scouting, drafting and signing minor league free agents.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45945">Ian Desmond</a></span> was always a player that was at best going to not hurt you in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> relative to the average starter. The fact that he is now always going to hurt pretty puts him where he always was, though more intensively. The real problem is that he was taken for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a>+<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>. Now that he does not have those, his relevance is plummeting. In the AL, JJ Hardy without the HR is the same effect, though on a different profile of player.
Kansas City has been covering the high-leverage situations with 3 pitchers while maintaining the "roles" the fans and players expect. While putting your best pitcher on the most crucial situations makes sense, fear of the unknown makes fans and players want to have another bullet ready for later. That makes having two guys who can handle high-leverage well a good idea, though probably a luxury that only some choose given the limited number of players that can predictably fill the role.
We can never discount that Boston knows something that many in baseball do not about those prospects. While Boston is concentrating risk, a lack of information is not one of those risks. San Diego is taking on the bulk of the pig-in-a-poke risk.
Do you expect that this year's top 10 will drift back toward the mean of $280ish, or retain dominance? The age profile of starting pitchers is changing and I would think that the profile of earnings is showing this somehow, but I am probably wrong.
It looks like your advice is really to buy health (the 6th tool). Oh, for the days of Cal Ripken.
He is one of 9 hitters. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=86">Andruw Jones</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Alex+Rodriguez">Alex Rodriguez</a></span> had two seasons each for 11 seasons, but only 9 hitters.
In one league (and only one league) I have had a fairly successful team (won twice in a row, second place before that). Many teams do not want to trade with me because they don't want to make the leader better (take him down in a trade!).
So, how does one break through that?
I would think that imbalance could lead to a knee injury, either on the drive leg during the pitch, or the front leg during an uneven landing. So rehab could have addressed the stability problem that you are not seeing any more. Either that, or the dodgy knee was the source of the stability problem and now that it is rehabbed it is not.
The thing I love about this time of year, is that it is time to see which players have something extra left, and who is ground down. It can be physically or mentally, but the wear and tear allows some otherwise unsung player who is an ironman to emerge as a force this late. He's just that little bit faster, stronger, or more awake than the other guys relative to the first 6 months, and it is his time to star.
Well, written, but wrong. Only the regular season should count in determining who makes the playoffs. In theory, the wild-card play-in gives teams that played unbalanced schedules a chance to face each other, but one game doesn't resolve which is the better team, and even 5 probably does not.
Better to return to two divisions, and extend the season in other ways. Longer playoffs (9 games), a longer regular season, or even just longer spring training.
I guess I am a copycat. My team in the head-to-head finals has Arrieta, Cole and DeGrom. I acquired DeGrom in a trade in the pre-season. After having not-so-good pitching for years, this year was special. Thanks BP Team!
I guess more importantly, are there any ZERO START guys that you would normally expect to make a start?
Earl Weaver would never have put up with the O's pitching.
My only question is whether he is doomed to a Lincecum path because of size. Don't get me wrong, I have him in both of my keeper leagues. I want him during the good Lincecum years.
By the way, I am against computers calling things, I only point out that simple line drawing is probably a horrible start.
I believe in the human element of the game. These games are played by people, and for people. There are too many of us who appreciate the human aspects of the game, the human confrontation that happens on the baseball diamond. This would take the fight over "the rules" of the game out of baseball.
Catchers have a lot of value in manipulating the perception of umpires. I think that is a huge skill set that is a genuine human element to the game. It will be a much poorer game if computers take that away from the game.
What is that <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a> about .25, .6? That is baseball-radius from the strike zone, as in hit by a strike.
It appears that a curved line would have to be drawn. That leaves a computer to call HBP, individualizing the curve to the batter body. I say that because not only does height vary, but trunk length versus leg length, and arm length relative to body length vary within people. Only a computer model could do a reasonable job.
I ask myself, is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102653">Trey Mancini</a></span> a player that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17635">Buck Showalter</a></span> can find a role for on the team? He is a right-handed bat that can draw some walks, and has some power. He is not good defensively, so might be the weak half of a 1B but more likely a DH platoon. So Buck can find a role for him, but it would be a thin one. Still, that draws a big-league paycheck, and would make Trey a very happy guy. Thanks for pointing him out.
Could you list the possible non-ADHD confounding conditions? Is depression among them? From what I gather, depression is more common than ADHD and the stress from "the grind" is high.
Not often you see a pickup recommendation with a down arrow. For us Latos owners, I gather that adds up to "hold"?
They really don't give Cal Ripken much to work with there, do they. They must hate him.
Well, a few months is a flash of the hope. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> eventually had a monster season, which has not replicated. The question is whether Grichuk's performance is a flash or not. Obviously, Piscotty would already have been in the big leagues if the Cardinals, or anyone else, to have been exceeding Grichuk's current performance all along.
Breaking confirmation bias is hard psychologically, but even when you are armed to attempt it, what kind of data do you use to do it? It isn't like the fellow players in your league are going to let you know the true value of your players.
The Orioles love bounce-back possibilities. Is that Ramirez as a DH, perhaps getting more rest?
So, Randall Grichuk or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100059">Stephen Piscotty</a></span>? Grichuk is a high draft pick who has not yet produced to initial expectation. Piscotty, just having been called up, is at the peak of his hype. Which is the better acquisition?
Well, that's one way to wake me up in the morning. Cute concept for an article. I have to say, it is hard to make a decision without knowing how much control the Orioles get over Hoover.
So, where do you rate him as opposed to other pitchers? Say, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57608">Rubby De La Rosa</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56580">Mat Latos</a></span>? (The particular choices I have to make.) In a keeper, I love ceiling.
Thank you for the update, and I love it being hosted on Google Docs. Could you add the MG column to the pitchers? The hitters have it, but the pitchers do not, at least, not that I can see. I prefer to sort by MG!
I very much like this new category of article. Information on injury progress of prospects is especially difficult to obtain without the assistance of a really good source.
Did <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18897">Don Baylor</a></span> ever break up a no-hitter with a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a>? For those that don't remember him, the man was a HBP machine.
Um, two 2014 #5 picks? <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101622">Nick Gordon</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104814">Alex Jackson</a></span>. Multiple-personality disorder?
Thanks for the Orioles prospects. That is quite a bunch of them in one go. I have so wanted Givens to get to the Show. Can he pinch-run in the inter-league games?
One thing that scientists do is ask the a question that use independent techniques of analysis to obtain an answer. If the answers agree, then there is a good chance the answer is correct. For example, if you can measure something chemically (chemical reaction) and spectrographically (shine light through it and measure the light), getting the same answer from both tests is comforting that you are avoiding an artifact in the measuring technique.
So ask your two questions totally different ways. Scouting and stats. Individual performance, versus team and role. Look at the gem from each facet. The flaw may be really visible from only one.
Well, given that they toss the international signing away as throw-ins on trades of little value, I would not assume they know what they are doing.
Who is hiring the scouting for the Orioles anyway? Could it be that they are reaping the results of not paying enough for amateur free-agent scouting? Is the owner pinching pennies until Lincoln screams in spending that 99% of fans do not pay attention to?
I have wanted this owner gone for a long time, and this draft just makes me ache ever more for it.
What kind of league does Rodriguez warrant being on rosters? 12, 14? I find it hard to believe 10.
Shouldn't the "The Hidden Game of Baseball" by Thorn and Palmer (Apr 1984) have been in your suspect list?
Is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631">Byron Buxton</a></span> still in High-A, or in AA. The text of the report and the label on his name disagree with each other.
Hamilton's relapse was in the past. While the contract looked bad going forward to the Angels, punishing players whose contracts are "bad" isn't a good policy to get the best baseball out of them.
I agree that a rehabilitative approach was probably best with Hamilton, given his history of long periods of remission. I don't know enough about the specific facts of the relapse to know if the Angels are just on the other side of a close call on whether Hamilton needed more motivation to push his recovery, or were just moralistic.
In any event, a punitive approach to Hamilton would just be a bad business decision. It was clear that Hamilton was going to play. Once that decision is made, it is best to rehabilitate the trade value, not destroy it. It is best to create the best environment for the team on a day-to-day basis to win. I think management and the ownership was very short-sighted here, and that probably affects the team in other ways that are less obvious. It will prevent the team from having the success it should.
Given the success of the Nationals, I think Angelos' upside from having a talented team has been capped at a not-high level. It is like MLB wanted to force him to milk the franchise for cash as a push on top of his disposition to do so. If anything, the Nationals and Orioles franchises have an incentive to be counter-cyclical to each other, with the down team drawing cash, which would be hard to pull off from where they are.
So, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=26807">Phil Niekro</a></span> was responsible only for about 1/3 of those guys who could not hit a knuckleball? I have to think that the percentage can vary a fair amount for an individual pitcher, especially one that relies on what is essentially a trick pitch.
Batters see a mountain of fastballs, but only so many 97 mph ones. Meanwhile, the see many fewer cutters. That has to take a toll on less experienced hitters. Could it be that an experienced control pitcher against an inexperienced hitter changes the percentage of responsibility for a strikeout? How can you weigh guile as a plus versus inexperience as a minus?
I wonder if this is supposed to be motivation to solidify that third pitch.
The Orioles have a glaring need at second base too, but cannot afford Utley.
Funny how those contracts bunch up recently. I would think that a team that has historically strong farm production (high floors) could do the best with it. That way, you never zero out, so no contract kills you. The breakouts pay for the not-quites. St Louis seems to be a paradigm team for this.
You are right. If a player is honest and self-reports his lapses and recovery plan, I think baseball and the player's union have to take different positions than those that try to hide and are revealed by testing. Hamilton has been open about his problems. He deserves honest efforts from MLB and the union to put his recovery first and his career second because that is what is in the best interests of baseball, and if he were thinking clearly, Josh Hamilton.
If baseball is a trigger that makes him use, then baseball has to go. It is that simple. Is it the constant injuries, the pain? The stress? The swings from highs to lows? I am not saying this is Josh Hamilton. It could be some ball player. At some point, MLB at some point might conclude it is part of the problem, and that separation is good for both of them. I can accept that could be a right answer in some circumstances where the player would be too deep in his problem to recognize the solution.
If Adam Wainwright could get some WHIP And SO he would be home plate.
It is really a shame how all those years of losing will have really fallen short in terms of farm production for the Orioles.
After watching baseball for the past 40 years, I think the question is whether a pitcher (capable of such a thing) is willing to find his absolute top gear and risk the rest of his career to get his goal. Orel Hershiser. Steve Stone. Some guys can do a lot if willing for it to all end today if it does not work out.
Obviously, contracts cannot be structured to reward such sacrifice. That is why it is so heroic when it happens.
Injured stud-muffins often miss the playoffs. I'll pass. I play for the playoffs, not for some statistical theory.
I have found that if you want to win the playoffs, you need to have your horses with you at the end. Making the playoffs based on a good first 2/3 of the season and then making a quick exit is not worth it.
What do you have to say about the playoff problem and systemic risk and injury?
Another point being that the lower priced players can earn big. Give yourself a chance to win some upswings to offset the failures.
The risk with any high dollar purchase is that it can fail horribly. This happens in real baseball, and even the stock market. You can't lose $14 on a $10 player. You can only lose it on a $14 or higher player. That is just something to keep in mind in life.
I think your advice sums up to: buy top 20 pitchers and pitchers that cost $9 and less. Leave the rest for the other guys (with exceptions that may arise, of course). Am I wrong?
You believe both Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts are shortstops for three years? I have a bridge near Manhattan I want to sell you.
I would like to note that if you use PFM dynamically with inflation and you avoid the high priced hitters, the problems with the rest of the players get even worse. Yes, this is what you would expect if you think about it.
I suppose this means that PECOTA needs to have a second function to deal with, say, the bottom half of the pool separate from the top half of the pool for a given league. I think it is better to push the excess money into the average to average-plus players than into lower ranked players. Otherwise, you cannot bleed excess cash fast enough.
It sounds like Aramis Ramirez would be a good corner infielder selection in that even if he gets injured some, you can get good value out of him with a bit later pick than you would use for the third baseman, is that correct?
I have Adrian Beltre and Anthony Rendon. Is it too soon to trade Beltre and rely on Rendon? I have a team that needs pitching, and may be able to get an older ace for Beltre (hoping for Wainwright, for example).
I find it funny that we can like comments, but not articles.
Ok, so if the field sits back on catchers, then grabbing one one of the top two that has fallen a round or two is a zag. Is that right? (As obvious as such a move might be.)
Jeff, can you give a catcher example of zagging? What are typical field strategies for catchers that can be zagged?
The older hitters often amaze for their ability to produce counting stats relative to their rate stats. They often gain many at-bats in a better batting slot than their current performance might dictate because of fan preference/respect for the player. Even keeper/dynasty teams need some steady producers.
The system needs more quality international players. That is not going to happen under the current ownership. Scouting, signing and coaching more young talent is what the Orioles have to do given their market limitations. It is lost on them.
Markakis is gone to Atlanta. $44-45 million a year depending on the source. It was the 4th year that did the Os in. At least it is not to the AL East.
As a ballplayer, I think Markakis is about all you could ask for. He is steady under pressure as he showed us in the playoffs. I think he is already something of a platoon hitter and that might worsen. It is a hard tradeoff, but letting him walk when the team is not truly that good may be the smartest move, and make your money move when it will really count.
I would have thought that in signing Ubaldo Jimenez, the Orioles were aware of his high variability in quality. Yes, this is an all-time low for Jimenez. Still, a bad year does not make for a promise of a streak of such years for a player that constantly revises himself as substantially as Jimenez does. It may be they know something now they did not know at the signing, which is a very bad sign. I do not think they would be so eager to move him just because they have too many mediocre starting pitchers.
I am surprised not to see Adam Jones at the bottom of the list.
Because it is so individualized across relievers and managers, what are the prospects for meaningful data sets that compare managers? After all, managers are managing different relief staffs. Manager movement is not so rapid and reliever turnover can be pretty rapid. Getting meaningful overlaps for calibration would seem to be a problem.
So how does this analysis apply for comparing managers, as opposed to finding optimal use strategies?
Dan Duquette sounds like the perfect GM For the Orioles owner. A guy who will be cheap, but effective. Now we get to see how he does with signing the significant players to multi-year contracts as that part of the team turns over.
I don't think that the market recognizes the framing yet. Catchers are not going to get big money for their contributions to pitching until the market recognizes it, not just a team or two that is using it for advantage OVER the market (e.g. free value).
Well, you have to forgive Mr. O'Day. He is a 32 year old relief pitcher coming up on his option year. Between this possibly being his last shot on a contending club, and the fact that he is not rich by baseball standards, he has as much pressure on him as anyone.
Home-field advantage depends on the length of the series. If it is 5 games, the Royals have home-field advantage (and really did not need it). If it is 7 games, the Orioles have home field advantage (how often do they go 7?).
I think the issue is over-wrought.
I would also like to observe, that there is a lot of uncertainty for the Orioles, and Hardy may well be the best point to choose to stabilize. Look at the other places that might be used as as a second anchor after Adam Jones:
1) Markakis: the power is gone.
2) Chris Davis: oops.
3) Manny Machado: Maturity and physical health and ability after two surgeries still needs to be seen. He has a lot of time to reach his peak. What if he takes it?
4) Matt Wieters: The pitchers did get better after he went down. Not a good sign for a would-be second anchor.
5) Nelson Cruz: Hoo boy, is that going to be expensive, and reversion to the mean and all that. Besides, we need to get the 1st round pick we gave up for Ubaldo back.
The worst that happens to Hardy is that you put him at second base, and he starts to get injured like Brian Roberts, which is actually pretty bad. But at that point you have Machado playing shortstop (one might hope), and a somewhat-hitting Schoop playing third (one also hopes).
So far both teams have shown tenacity in the postseason. Maybe Schoop can linebacker a couple of Royals and get the series for the Os!
This is a really nice article Jeff, though it begs for a vertical breakdown of the columns with significant populations.
Also, there is the issue of what pitchfx shows for strike zone size versus height. After all, if you are defending a huge territory there are more ways to miss than a slow swing.
So, what about Dave Winfield? 6' 6", 22 years, 1686 strikeouts. 1981 440 AB, 41 strikeouts.
Tigers fans? Where are you?
Well, ordinarily the benefit is that they hurt lefties and that the righties have to hit into Hardy and Machado. So while the righties may not be hurt by them, there are other advantages.
The Orioles have one quality that I think observers pretty much agree on. As a team their character is to be tough in tight spots. They get the best baseball out of their non-stars when the game is on the line. They don't turn into something they are not, but given that they all the batters have power, and all the pitchers can get an out, they can all do what the team needs in the pinch.
I have to go with Kazmir. There is not achieving your potential and there is dead bang out of baseball and given up for dead. He is probably the comeback player of the decade.
Looks like a guy who would benefit from being an Oriole.
Science 18 July 2014:
Vol. 345 no. 6194 pp. 264-265
There is a fascinating comment in a recent edition of Science magazine (the AAAS publication) on statistics. Perhaps controlling for many possible hypotheses is in order?
"The future lies in uncertainty" D. J. Spiegelhalter
Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
"Traditional statistical problems could be termed 'large n, small p': There were many observations (n), such as participants in a clinical trial, but few parameters were measured (p), and just a handful of hypotheses tested. More recently attention has turned to 'small n, large p' problems...
Many such “small n, large p” problems require screening of vast numbers of hypotheses, for which the naïve use of statistical significance is inappropriate; the standard “P < 0.05” criterion means that 1 in 20 nonexistent relationships will be declared significant, so that if you do enough tests, some apparent discoveries will always pop up. Procedures have been developed to control the false discovery rate (FDR); that is, the proportion of apparent discoveries that turn out to be wrong (7). For example, the confidence required before announcing the discovery of the Higgs boson was couched in statistical terms as 5 sigma, and this assessment included an adjustment for how many hypotheses were examined (the “look elsewhere effect”).
The position is supposed to be "Team Dad." Dang lack of a preview function or edit function.
The problem with the sleep point is that (1) it is highly variable by individual, and (2) the amount that is right on average is still a matter of some significant scientific controversy. I've seen a recent study suggesting around 7 hours is optimal, for example, and it is known that excessive sleep, just like too little sleep, leads to grogginess. (As, of course, does grog.)
Also, the teams can't 'parent' them, or at least not more than once. The whole point of making them be adults is to force accountability, not micromanage. There is no position of on the staff of a rookie league club. They need to learn to find mentors to fill in what parents did not. Make THAT express to them.
But I really, really appreciate it. It takes a lot of hunting out of things because of the cross-links.
I thought maybe you did it because it would confuse minor league stats. After all, the minor league stats are tied to organization, and well, most of the stats so far have come from the old organization, not the new one. It would require organization and team for stats to separate and that won't be nice to do.
I notice that traded prospects have not moved organizations. I understand that not happening on the organization lists because that would require slotting them. But why not on the top-100 lists? That requires only changing the organization name.
If the author has a moment, the game works both ways: lefties could have made an adjustment against Kipnis (they are allowed to learn too) and achieved dominance. Is there any lack of evidence of that in pitch selection, location, etc?
Minor leaguers have off-season jobs that pay more, UPS in particular being famous for giving athletes flexible schedule jobs with decent pay.
It would be interesting for you to talk to a GM for a minor league team about the finances of the team itself. I don't know if Cal Ripken would take your call on the matter as owner of his own team. If minor league baseball were a profitable business in an operating sense, then higher pay would make more sense.
So how much money are we talking about... 6 levels x 25 players x $100 = $15,000 for one major league club is an increment.
Does Profar no longer qualify? Or is he no longer Top 50?
I really found the BP dynasty lists at the beginning of the season interesting, but it would be nice to see commments about movement relative to those initial lists. Once you have a season-opening list posted (even by other authors) it might be good if a player is going to be treated here, a mention be made about movement relative to those lists if the player is on them.
Makes me glad the O's have Harvey instead of Ciuffo.
Don't do anything about delays during the game. Just have someone go over the tape after the game and assess delay fines. They would not have to be large to accumulate to a significant number over a whole season. This would exert downward pressure. Make them proportional to salary.
Is Hunter Harvey behind Schoop only because he won't be in the majors for some time, while Schoop is now? I know that Harvey's ceiling is considered higher than Schoop's by just about everyone.
Oops, was in wrong article.
I know this is late, but no Cashner?
I think this is wonderful.
If you could pick a struggling hitter to follow at some point this season, to look at the adjustments he tries, that would be nice to see. What does a hitter who is "off" do to get "on"?
For those of you who are wondering: what about my non-5x5 league?
What I am trying this year, is I ran the PFM with 5x5 and with my league settings. I did a spreadsheet that calculated the % difference between the two. That permits me to multiply the values Mike gave to get adjusted numbers for my scoring system. How good is it? I have no idea.
It does not seem to be an irrational way to adjust the prices though.
At one point Ryan had a reputation to appear to throw the curve at the batter's head and still get a strike. Do you want to be the batter guessing curve or fastball in that situation?
Heck, if Kendry wanted that first offer he could fire his agent, and his agent knows it. So, what is the agent going to advise? I am not surprised borderline free agents did not take the money. They are baseball players, not contract negotiation geniuses.
I think that the package of the two signings for the two picks leaves me wanting the picks. The salvation of the Orioles is pitchers coming from the farm, or not coming at all. Not Ubaldo Jiminez and one year of Nelson Cruz.
Aaron Laffey? Really?
I would expect that. I also expect that Hardy will be a Yankee in 2015. Much to my regret.
J.J. Hardy is in the last year of his contract with the Orioles. Machado is a severe risk to turn back into a shortstop, That does not make him a bad investment, but you may have to trade him to get a four star third baseman after this year.
I don't suppose Manny Machado is considered out of position any more.
This is interesting if the site's primary fantasy advice came in the form of PECOTA, but it does not. Generally, it advises in standard 5x5 and we are left to modify from there. So, how would we modify a 5x5 value from a columnist to revalue players for new categories?
This also has the problem that some categories are direct linear combinations of others (as opposed to implicitly being connected). If my league adds TB, then it is HR + other stuff. If my league adds SLG it is BA + other stuff, including HR. So in one case an original category gets double-weight. (As it is in 5x5, there is some express double-weighting because each HR has 1 run and at least 1 RBI, and the HR adds to BA.)
Regarding holds for the pitchers, nothing in the earlier pitcher numbers accounts for holds. The category is 100% a new stat.
So, I am not up to your level with these stats, what is your advice?
As I recall, Bob Boone learned to hit late. The strangest things can happen to catchers.
This qualifying offer is a proxy for "losing a player better than level X." The problem with a proxy is that it is never as good as the real thing. Another with a single-level system is it has cliff effects. On the other hand, it is easy to administer.
What the system should do is admit that large market clubs sign several players to big contracts, and smaller market clubs sign only a few to big contracts. Only the large market clubs usually do the monster super-size contracts, and certainly only a couple do multiples of those.
What the small market clubs need in exchange for feeding that are draft picks. The salary cap tax system needs to move draft picks as well as money. The Yankees can do what the Yankees do, but pretty much operate without anything resembling a decent farm system. Meanwhile, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Tampa, etc. operate on oversize farm systems. If you want a cost-controlled player, you have to go to a mid- or small-market club.
I have a hard time thinking that the Orioles end up with Maholm over Kazmir. Duquette seems to like guys he can dream of bounce-back on, like McLouth. Maholm is too good for a minor league deal, which would seem to be the kind of thing Duquette would do with the kind of player Maholm is, though he could never do it with the quality of player Maholm is.
As usual, the answer is... it depends.
When I am playing fantasy, I really do not care how good the player is in theory. If he is assigned high leverage situations, I don't want that sorted out. After all, I seek out players who are placed in high-leverage situations.
If I am asking who the best ballplayers are, who makes the most of the opportunities, then I want the de-leveraged values. Comparing second basemen who bat second on one team and sixth on another really requires de-leveraging.
Soriano will often not even take a step towards the ball if it is hit to center or left-center (even with the center fielder cheating towards him) to back up a play. He is an amazingly lazy player in the field. Might as well put a glove on a pole and hope the ball lands in it. DH for sure.
Manny Machado? I thought he was like #2 in total WARP so far.
I've read that if there is a dominant eye, that is what is important. It has to face the pitcher. After all, you have to both see the ball and control the bat to hit the ball.
Ok, I had a crazy idea while reading this. Your comment on not being able to be worth more than $50 because all 5 categories cannot come through makes me ask: can you value the dollars by category?
So, could Trout have been R=$10, RBI=$9, HR=$9, SB=$10, AVG=$9, or something like that? In that case, it would be a lot easier to get a team with the combined stats you want. Sure, a lot of players would be negative in one category, and positive in another, but such a system would make the tradeoffs of particular player very clear.
End of crazy idea.
Brian Roberts at 337 PA? How is he going to do that unless he is the DH?
What about within a game? I seem to remember that Charlie Hough did terrible things to the opponents (and the catcher) in the 1986 All-Star game.
Flame, Butterflies, then more flame.
Where would Chapman be if he was not a starter. I don't think he will be past the All-Star break.
In theory, there should be just as much value in the pitching half as the hitting half. The problem is that there is far less projectable pitching value than hitting value. So, owners are much more willing to go with a $1 pitcher than with a $1 hitter.
So I am not sure if the relatively narrow planned spend is why the top guys finished on top, or they are just better at identifying pitching value and so can budget more reliably for it.
But as the high budgets of some guys who finished at 5-12 shows, spending itself isn't the driver of success. But if you know what you are doing, 36% or so is enough.
Does PECOTA understand that most AL hitters have not seen Dickey's knuckleball? Isn't that going to have AL hitters cursing for the first half?
Well played, sir.
Thanks for your analysis. It just confirms my belief that the Orioles have to keep their young players now, and hope that more break through before making significant free-agency commitments. I know it will break the hearts of Orioles fans who think the team was for real, but the real result was trading a real thrill for getting late draft picks.
Mind you, after all those years, the thrill was well worth it.
It seems to me that Seattle is moving players so that 2013 is not a re-run of 2012, or am I missing something?
Thanks for coming in on the Chapman discussion from the Starter article in the 10th.
I gather you are evaluating the proposition that the improvements to the young players happen in the season the veteran is kept around. What about in later seasons? If the veteran spending a season with the younger player is a "treatment" for immaturity, might not the effects come out later?
I have been asking questions about Aroldis Chapman in the most recent Starters article. Obviously, Chapman can be used as a reliever. Could you offer your view on the likelihood of Chapman going back to being the closer? (I expect your opinion would be that he would be a top closer if he did that.)
Well, I have him and he is in competition with Dickey & Shields for a keeper spot. Talk about a 3-way valuation problem.
When Ellsbury went down, I ended up with an outfield of Reddick, de Aza and Revere. So is any of them an interesting player for you to discuss?
I think we all realize that Chapman could end up a starter or a reliever by the All-Star break. Could you please explain a little more about how you think Chapman's real value to the Reds will influence that decision. I would think that if he is turning out to be an eminently replaceable starter, that he will end up closing again.
That presents both a fantasy valuation problem and a roster management problem. But I don't fear roster management problems. What does the reliever guy think? (Or should I ask for a separate review from the reliever guy?)
I don't suppose there is a way to check for the freshness of the ball. Balls are usually pretty fresh. After all, a ball is going to have a different outer surface after a grounder than when it was first introduced into play.
Ike Davis, Garrett Jones.
I went into the off-season fearing that Baltimore would believe the win-loss record over the runs gotten and allowed. Baltimore was not a team that was a move or two away from the playoffs again. Last season was a special gift for Orioles fans, but one that will not happen again.
It appears that Baltimore has not given up on its underperforming young players. Good for them! I remember the Orioles giving up on young players to get free agents. How much good did Fred Lynn and Lee Lacy do the Orioles? They gave up on John Shelby who had a couple of really good years, and Curt Schilling, well, it just hurts to think about what if Schilling and Mussina had stayed with the Orioles.
Baltimore cannot become good through free agency. It cannot happen. They do not have the money. So I don't fault them for working to make the talent they have develop. I do fault them for not trading Roberts when they could.
I hope you can comment on the ever-variable Jacoby Ellsbury.
Having Reddick in my hopper in one team, I have to say I was much more expecting to see him as "fringe" for a 90-player league. We are a 12 teams, 7 keepers, and I am having trouble seeing keeping him. Could you explain more about why he is one of the top 100 in baseball, much less 90?
Maybe the Royals' window is the weakness of their divisional competition. Snag a divisional title in the next two years and call it a decade.
Myers did not get a call-up this year, and the Royals know Myers better than anyone else. For now I have to give the Royals the benefit of the doubt. If the other Royals "can't miss" prospects come around, maybe the Royals can pull it off.
Let's hear about Napoli in a future segment. He is up-down year to year, and just changed cities.
Any chance the Orioles could go with a 4-man rotation? They have a fair number of not-quite starters to bring out of the pen, so having 4 starters to go 5-6 innings could work out well for them.
I suppose these clubs must understand that long-term contracts are always the riskiest. But they do it anyway. Forget the performance level: besides Cal Ripken, who has a team been able to be sure about being out there 140 games a year? Much less where you are sure of a minimum performance level? (Ok, Billy Butler. any others?)
I think it was probably pretty hard to be Texas in an elimination game. These guys have been thinking they are the best team in the AL (and maybe all baseball) most of the season. Then they blow the division crown and are one game from going home. The pressure must have been enormous.
As at least on Oriole has observed, the Os are playing with house money. That's a good situation to be in.
Jay Jaffe's article indicates uncertainty about the justifiability of AHLF. If that is going to be your basis for ordering (that is, including a league adjustment, which looks to be 0.020 this year!) I think I'd like to see a stronger justification for that.
Not that that would work in the Orioles' favor! The Orioles would drop to 0.519 instead of 0.539. Yikes!
Right Field is only manned 57% of the time. Wow.
The problem is that something akin to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle applies. If you measure the particle to a more precise location, you end up losing other information. On top of it, you probably change what you are measuring.
BP had a beautiful article on now Brett Lawrie was "framed." Having a computer make beeps and boops to call balls and strikes would take that away. You have actually changed the skill set a catcher needs to have, and that will change the game.
Isn't part of baseball's magic fooling the human eye?
The other thing is if somehow calls became scientifically perfect, fans would be deprived of the refrain "we wuz robbed!" as the reason for losing. If is much easier to face losing if you have a convenient excuse.
Leave the game alone!
Well, the AL East maintains its "every child is above average" record. When was the last time a division ended up with every team above .500?
Shouldn't that greater than sign be >30$+? it looks like it is for less than $30. As in player value is X, so for X > $30; X > $20; X > $1.
But we all knew what you meant.
It depends on the expectation. I knew people who were expecting Butler to become much more of a power hitter. That would have significantly changed his value proposition in a 5x5. Mind you, I have owned him in a non-5x5 keeper for years, and often can get him at an appropriate pick in 5x5 leagues. He is the most certain hitter for production I can think of. If you think you have scored earlier in the draft, he is a great choice for stabilizing the production of the team, as opposed to getting more high and low swings.
One has to consider the alternatives. After the middle of a draft, one is often faced with the below-average-but-predictable versus the might-be-a-sleeper picks. In filling out bench positions, I would much rather have a potential diamond because I can always get a ho-hum player for most positions. In my experience the potential diamonds crap out more than half the time, more like 2/3 or 3/4. But the gain on the 1/3 to 1/4 who find their upside more than make up for the discards to get ho-hum from the free agent pool.
I like the game of heads-I-win, tails-I-tie.
PFM will be changing its values. So that we can make adjustments later, could you please put your PFM adjustment in? Not an explanation, but rather just a dollar value so that we can convert later PFM to use these charts later.
After the disappointment they heaped on Boston fans last year, the veterans should be lucky that they only have to ride the bus during preseason.
Guthrie is something of a poor man's Mark Buehrle. He was a good Oriole, and I am sure Buehrle's payday made things harder on the Orioles in negotiations. But any organization that really needs the stability that Guthrie brings won't trade prospects. I know I would not.
Hammel reduces the headaches for the front office, and increases them for the manager and training staff. It just buys them a year before they have to solve the problem of Hammel departing. It doesn't move the team closer to .500 ball.
If they can get Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and Britton all fixed, that is practically a rotation right there. And they could pitch together for quite a while. As long as Matusz and Britton don't pitch back-to-back, opposing hitters would always be facing very different looks day-to-day.
I already picked my keepers, but I bet some people are wondering about Chris Carpenter. I kept him in in a 140-keepers league. But it was not the most super-obvious thing to me. I bet people who are in shallower leagues are wondering.
Cal Ripken. Because he was always there.
I have used this kind of strategy. Thank you, Billy Butler.
The decision for Napoli is a tough one for me. 12 teams, 7 keepers. I am in a keep 2-of-3 on Napoli, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. Leaning towards dumping Napoli. Talk about regression candidates!
Um, what part of "pick good pitchers from winning teams" is not the obvious way to get wins. I mean Beckett, Sabathia, Halladay, etc. are just painfully obvious. Does this really help with fourth and fifth starters? Or are we smarter forgetting about wins, and just getting starts with strikeouts?
This is one of those things like the brush-back pitch or the retaliatory beanball that are part of the game. Confronting fear is part of the game. Catchers can stay out of the way and not take the risk.
Now, catchers are not very smart, as the catchers that blocked the plate on Bo Jackson can attest to. Rick Dempsey comes to mind.
I really like what you have done here Marc. You have set a high standard for those who follow you to live up to.
One thing that will be unclear is whether or not a given injury projection is baked into Marc's rating or not baked into Mark's rating. The inability to separate that will confuse some valuations where different aspects are important. For example, I am in two keeper leagues. One with a deep bench, and one with a shallow bench. I can use great-when-healthy in the deep one, but low injury is necessary in the shallow one. (I cannot tell you how grateful I am for Raphael Furcal in the deep one.)
Isn't Strasburg worth at least a star? He could drop two stars and play a third of a season and still be worth one star.
I keep asking myself if Milledge is worth a flyer for the Orioles. The alternatives are Matt Angle and Nolan Reimold. What are the odds of them both working out?
I look at veteran signings for the Orioles as being as much about providing the youngsters with someone who can help them a little as much as the time actually played. I don't see how having someone who succeeds in a "lunch bucket" way is bad. Jeremy Guthrie is pretty much the only veteran in the rotation. At least the bullpen has experience in it.
I look at Edgar Martinez and say to myself "him ahead of Alan Trammell?" Because Cal Ripken is enshrined? How can you take a DH and move him ahead of a shortstop with offense and defense adding up to so much? It is easy now to say that Trammell did not play in an exceptional age for shortstops, but that's not true. Trammell was one of the players who changed the expectations and perceptions of shortstops, along with Ripken and Yount.
First of all, they don't have to win the division. I'll take a wild card spot. Sure, it is not odds-on, but it looks like 87 games gets you a 1/4 chance of being second. Also, for the other teams, gravity works sometimes. Losing Carl Crawford is not a small loss. The Yankees look dedicated to hanging onto old players decaying. And Boston is scrambling for all the pieces.
Sure, the future has a tendency to look like the present. At least until it does not. Things change.
I agree that this farm system and the players under age 25 don't point a way to the playoffs. But producing a .500 ball club would be a victory at this point. The Orioles have one more high draft pick coming. And with some luck the Orioles get enough pitching to trade some of it for position players.
Doesn't everyone need a couple of good surprises to become a playoff team from the farm system? It could happen to the Orioles. That, and a well-timed free agent acquisition or two in 2012 or so.
The Orioles should not take that deal. They should not deal Scott for a player whose ceiling is about that of Robert Andino. Take a look at that 10-year WARP!
Hey, the Orioles have a history of "Wiggy" experiments at second base. This is a chance for a shout-out to, yes, Alan Wiggins!
There are many leagues that are not 5x5. Could you give us an idea of how far above/below PECOTA you think a player is? I am not sure if you would use Dollars, VORP or some other measure. But it would be good to know the offset.
Short term memory is extremely subject to manipulation. It is quite the question for neuroscience. Obviously, once we understand it better, it will be part of the baseball war. How can pitchers erase memory, and how can hitters defend against erasure.
As a reader, I like graphics of some kind to give me the bottom line in a quick fashion. Sure, stars do that. For predictions I guess the question is whether you were in the ballpark, way under or way over. As a modification, I guess I would take into account the breakthrough predictions. So for example:
In the ballpark (graphic one), but wrong about breakthrough (window with baseball coming through with red slashed circle).
Way under (down arrow) but right about breakthrough(window with baseball coming through)
Injury made prediction irrelevant(Jose Reyes, Jackson Conor)(picture of an arm in a cast maybe)
If you predicted the injury, then you should give yourself a gold star.
The real answer would be found in the impact of speed. Where does speed affect reading the pitch? Where does speed affect the spin of the ball, and thus the deviation, the most? How where does speed affect the ability to adjust the swing to the ball?
The answer to each of those might be different. And each factor may be of different impact to different hitters. Reading speed, swing speed and length, and ability to adjust can all be different for different hitters. Heck, another factor would probably be the ability to hold up if you judge that your initial read was wrong would be important too.
As mentioned by others, having to adjust expectations is another factor. If C.C. Sabathia throws a knuckleball it will probably cause someone's brain to explode.
Wow. This change was transformative. My before and afters do not look much alike. Pitchers are down, catchers are way, way up. I have no idea how Lance Berkman managed to move up in this. That said, I don't regret the trades I made on the old system in preparation for the supplemental draft.
You might want to look into that catcher valuing thing. Under my scoring system, Brian McCann and Russell Martin are valued as only worse than Pujols, Ramirez, Reyes and Wright. That is pretty exalted valuing. (We add TB, SO and OBP to standard 5x5).
Yeah, imagine if the Baltimore Orioles' "ace" went down. How bad is the next starting pitcher available? Do we want to imagine?
Adam Dunn got really gutted in this last go-round. With 80% playing time only 27 HR. That\'s dropping his home runs by a third.
No C.C. Sabathia?
I don\'t want fair trades, I want to win! :)
I try to trade on the differences between evaluations on the Yahoo player ranker and PECOTA. Basically trade bad-PECOTA players for good-PECOTA players while trading equal quality on the Yahoo player ranker.
Oh, and getting Rafael Furcal and trading him after he does well so someone else gets the back problems. :)
There is much talk about PECOTA at mid-season. I would suggest after the trade deadline. I certainly would love that. As important though would be redoing the depth charts to get the playing time estimates.
The fact is that injuries are enough of a factor that the playing time estimates made in April are no longer true after the All-Star break because of the injuries.