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Agree with Behemoth. Particularly for deep systems with a long tail of 2-star prospects, a cut-off at 10 feels arbitrary.
Two other items on the "wish list" - and not meant as a criticism at all of the excellent work that consistently appears in PWBYH and that will make up these prospect lists:
- Would love to see the deeper prospect list suggested above, only curated by the anticipated "graduating class." OK, I know I can DIY this, but it does help to put the list in context of decisions the FO will need to make moving forward.
- Knowing this is difficult, but a ML comparable player (e.g., Adrian Beltre, Joe Saunders, Alcides Escobar, etc) to the toolset is a nice frame of reference. Would only really be apt for the top prospects at the more advanced levels.
REALLY looking forward to the lists!
Here's hoping the stadium plays like Citi field circa 2010.
Hasn't Headly been moved back to 3rd with the Kouzmanoff trade?
I agree that the Twins should be favored, but there are too many things that could plausibly go wrong for me to feel comfortable predicting they will "run away" with the division. For starters, this isn't an 87-win team returning, but rather an 82-win team that had incredible fortune with runners on base (4th in runs despite finishing anywhere from 17th - 20th in BA, OBA and SLG in those situations). At least 50 runs better than you would expect, given their situational hitting. You just can't expect to repeat that performance and call it your baseline for 2010.
Clearly Hardy and Hudson are improvements over the incumbents. On the other hand, Mauer and Kubel have nowhere to go but down after career years. Even if everything breaks right, I don't know if this team scores 817 runs again. Which is bad news for Carl Pavano.
I'll happily concede Brock's genius if the Twins do finish 6+ games ahead of the field, but from here I have a difficult time seeing it.
The Pirates also did this in 1979, with Kent Tekulve manning left field. IIRC, Tekulve made the final putout of the inning.
I believe the term is "inflection point," no?
If the Tigers really want to contend, there has to be a creative solution that brings Damon to Detroit without blowing up the payroll. A 1-year deal at a $2M with an easily achievable vesting player option at $8 - $10M would hedge against Maggs vesting his option and reduce the risks of Carlos Guillen missing significant time, Austin Jackson pulling a Cameron Maybin '09, or finding out what happens when you give Ryan Raburn or Clete Thomas 400 PA.
Looking forward to your analysis of the Angels' Joel Pineiro signing.
Good article, Tommy. Not sure whether this is in play with the Bay contract, but "backloading" can also refer to deferred payments after the nominal end of the contract. Manny Ramirez is under such a deal - he'll be receiving payments from the Dodgers 2 years after his current contract expires. And if I'm not mistaken, his deal with Boston called for deferred payments until 2025 or so.
A contract structure that pays Bay $10M/year through 2013 and defers the remaining $26M over the next 5-6 years might give him a lower NPV than a straight-line $15M per year Boston deal.
And Lee was looking for a "Sabathia" contract, which likely precipitated the deal.
It would be interesting to see how well this effect holds up during the 2nd and 3rd games vs. the first game of an away series, to determine whether the road team is able to adjust. Although I wouldn't want to try to compile that data set...
Will, I'm sure you're working on this, but do you have any insight as to why the prognosis for Weeks ("out for the year") is more severe than that of Big Papi last year, who if I remember correctly was only out 8 weeks with the same injury (torn tendon sheath)?
They're forecast to be the best offense and 3rd best pitching staff in the league. How much better could they be?
Good point, Oleoay. Boras is under a mandate to get his client something north of 2/$40 or he will look foolish (and cost himself money) for declining the Boston option years. There are no competitive offers out there, so he\'s pretty much captive to what the Dodgers want to pay. The two face-saving exceptions I can see are: 1) the Mets or Yankees, for the \"hometown discount;\" and 2) a Clemens-type contract signed in June with a prorated AAV of, say, $30M.
Now, if I were Frank McCourt and in a really vindictive mood, I might just float the rumor that I\'m in discussions with the Twins, Yanks or Nats for one of their excess outfielders, any of whom would be a 2-3 win upgrade over Juan Pierre.
Of all the problems you outlined, Christina, the 3B situation concerns me least. A Betemit/Fields platoon may have limited upside, but it couldn\'t be worse than what the Tigers or Twins are throwing out there.
By the way, does anyone else think it wouldn\'t be the worst idea to give Mark Grudzielanek a cheap contract to hedge against both Nix AND Getz falling flat?
Also I\'m pretty confident that - as happy as this would make me - the Nats won\'t score 786 runs.
Dovetail on Dschmitz3, Josh Willingham isn\'t up either. The Nats depth chart in general looks a bit thin (< 100% PT at each position).
That said, I\'m as giddy as a schoolgirl over these. Thanks, Clay!
Does the addition of Alomar, Larkin and McGriff really make it more difficult for Dawson and Blyleven to pick up votes? I would think (and in Blyleven\'s case, hope) that the lack of a sure-fire first ballot inductee might help rather than hurt.
Delmon for Edwin Encarnacion and be done with it.
Maybe not, but he\'ll make up for a lack of infield power with Andruw Jones.
No Monday is complete without a Mike Ivie reference.