CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
Thanks for another great report! Do you think <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66008">Jacob Turner</a></span> has enough of a chance to start effectively to pick him up over someone like, say, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70300">Adam Conley</a></span>, who just got sent to the minors?
To start the season, there's just not gonna be much here.
For feedback - great article, hugely helpful. Some nice insight here.
I'm not necessarily confused but I am surprised and would love to see some commentary on his value.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99963">Jake Lamb</a></span>, sigh. I traded for him mid-July when he was looking like a true breakout. It seems mostly he's being seen as a repeat of last season's total, where he was absolutely horrible the last two months. I have him for another two years... anything to make me feel better? Perhaps he's more than first four months than than the last two?
What league wouldn't allow Machado to be played at shortstop in 2017? He played, what, like 40+ games there last year? If you're drafting Machado to be your third baseman instead of your shortstop, you probably made a mistake or had an odd draft. *Vastly* more people will start them at SS this year than 3B.
Feedback is important, and I disagree that this comment got a bunch of negatives it's by default-hidden. It wasn't disrespectful, hateful, and it didn't use inappropriate language. It was kind of a "letter-to-the-editor" about the writeups.
On the other hand, I personally like <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/ben_carsley">Ben Carsley</a>'s writeups and believe these have been both informative and entertaining. So put me on the opposite feedback of "good job, keep going."
Nice players to think about, thanks for this!
Fabulous, thanks for this. I think a problem - the problem? - with acceptance of "The Intersectionalists" from many sabermetric fans is that it doesn't jibe with their concrete math-centered interests - sports and baseball in particular and sabermetrics in extra-particular are their respite from the ambiguity and complexity of personal relationships and culture.
I just wrote what you wrote but worse. Anyway, good point that we will vociferously disliked by many in "sabermetric baseball."
i liked it
Wonderful article. Thanks for it.
Semi-tangential, but I've often found something... off, in some way, with prospect talk and evaluation writing / discussion across all levels: the loss of context when were talking about skills and abilities. "This player is an awful hitter," "bad athlete," "can't throw strikes," simply "not a good player." But it's all in this context of comparing them to -the best players in the world-, and there's this erosion of wonder, perhaps, when we don't keep at the forefront of our minds that these are all *good* players, *good athletes*, *good* pitchers with good control, they just pale comparatively to great, amazing, and nearly transcendent players.
Rambling here, but I think it can take the majesty out of the game a bit, at least for me it does. I like to consistently remind myself that comparative language that describes any player in the minors or majors as *bad* loses something in the translation.
Anyway, this kind of article is an absolutely great way to pull down from that tendency. Thanks again.
Hate's a strong word. I think you can dislike it and voice that opinion to the staff. It is not at all like stealing.
Me, I loved it. There is legitimate insight in all of the articles, even the slightly sillier ones, and even without that it showed a level of playfulness, creativity, and a unique perspective that's exactly what BP has been known for. It's exactly what you pay for.
Aww, my favorite part of this whole thing is reading the comments of people freaking out! None here, but nice article.
Thanks for getting through this long slog, great stuff.
What's your thought on Wada now after that weird three innings? Just an incredibly short leash coming back from the DL?
I don't even play daily stuff, but your updates are still great. Really enjoy them, like the talk about Strasburg. Thanks Doug!
Does <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58054">Brandon Beachy</a></span> have any stash to stash in his mustache? Stach.
"Last year, around this time, I wrote that article, and right now I’m writing that article, because I don’t usually change much."
Great opening paragraph. Don't change at all, Sam Miller.
Jordan, did you watch Reyes at Kane County on Sunday or was this a previous start? I was at that game against the Cougars and thought he looked awful; I was really disappointed in that performance. But I know nothing about discerning talent at such a low level; I just started going to Kane County games regularly. If it was the same game we saw, it's interesting to me how my experience of his performance on a complete amateur / fan level was so different from you with a professional eye.
Definitely agree about the weight; I was thinking even more than 20 pounds.
Great writeups, guys. Love the work.
When the Uptons are together, they have a shared pool of finite talent. Justin is using 70% of the pool right now. It's some possibility energy from the statosphere or something...
Is Beckett still slated for the double start, or is his second one (against the Marlins) going to be bumped?
Can you please remove this from the site? My ever-decreasing research advantage as more of my leaguemates find out about BP is dwindling... at least I could rely on the fact that they would take KG's and (now) Mr. Park's lists as gospel, and I at least would do the conversion. Now all they have to do is see this.
Sigh. Is this at least subscriber-only? You're killing me, Mr. Sayre.
I think Mr. Perrotto's point was less that they essentially asked Byrd to come to spring training, and more that asking Byrd to spring training was the only thing accomplished concerning the possible wordt OF in baseball.
Mentally throw an "or" after "big" and be done with it.
Thanks for your work, Jason y otros.
Vance Worley. Traded in between the Twins and Phillies rankings. Where would he rank on this 25 and younger list?
If I made an uneducated guess, I'd say #5, just ahead of Kyle Gibson? Not that "soft 2" upside, but he's already proven he deserves to be in a rotation...
Big +1 this this here, Behemoth. There's load of pitchers whose upside is that of perhaps a #4 or #5 command-and-control starter, which is immensely valuable in the real MLB and so should be (and have been) comparatively high on KG's rankings. But, for fantasy, we'd rather chance the flamethrower who has a minute chance of hitting his #2 SP ceiling, but if he does, he's actually fantasy relevant.
I don't think anyone is suggesting changing the focus of prospect analysis, just adding to it. Having a fantasy-focused writer or two put out a complementary "for fantasy" top 101 wouldn't harm the existing content.
"I think we, as readers, are smart enough to translate what KG/Jason (or if you read Keith and BA) say into how that impacts a fantasy roster."
Yeah, but I could also go out to minor league ballparks to scout players and develop relationships with scouts and other minor league personnel in order to learn more. Then I wouldn't need BP at all! But instead of using my life for that, I subscribe.
I think one reasonably easy thing would be to have one fantasy-knowledgeable person "convert" the top 101 (and the team top 11s) to fantasy relevance. In addition to, not replacement of. So someone could take what will be Jason's / BP's Top 101 and re-order and re-comment based solely on likelihood of future fantasy success. Of course Mr. Goldstein started to dip his toe in this water with his ESPN Insider cross-article "Top fantasy prospects for 2012," which is an absolute model for what I and what I think others would like on the site.
I'm not sure to what extent y'all already do this, but if you put out a marketing survey about why people followed Kevin's prospect work, you'd find a (perhaps) surprisingly high percentage was interested in it primarily from a fantasy perspective. I can say, anecdotally, that my circle of a dozen or so friends that are subscribers / purchasers of the annual did so using the prospect material for fantasy.
Kevin's work was of a uniquely entertaining / interesting quality, such that I valued it highly even though it really wasn't *exactly* what I was looking for (deep prospect information that was directly fantasy relevant). It's like if you wanted a Pale Ale to drink but all you had was a Vienna lager, but that Negra Modelo is so good you were happy to get drunk on it. It's so chill.
For example, Kevin might have an OF, SS, or C (especially) ranked much higher than his fantasy ceiling because of their defense. Makes total sense for doing "real-world" prospect rankings, but doesn't hold up to an interested fantasy player. Scanning KG's 101 from this year really quickly, Jesus Montero may have been higher. Perhaps Francisco Lindor slightly lower. If your league, like most, doesn't require an CF (just uses OF slots), Gary Brown would be ranked lower than Wil Myers. Devin Mesoraco would fall, Christian Yelich would fall. Matt Adams, Anthony Rizzo would rise. That sort of thing. Since I've started buying the BP annual in 2007, I've been reading the prospect, always mentally altering (or marking up with a Sharpie) the comments based on fantasy relevance.
Now that BP has the opportunity to re-set the table, as it were, having someone that does Prospect-to-Fantasy sort of "conversion" would add something really valuable that Kevin "couldn't" do here.
Well, I'm as confused about Justin Upton as I was when I started reading the article. But I'm more educatingly (it's a word) confused, so it's cool.
Thanks for the article! Great!
One of my favorite games. Just put it on my google phone last week.
Nice post. I used to work in the roleplaying game world... if I published a RPG-style tabletop baseball game (like a strat-o-matic meets D&D) does anyone think I could sell 500 copies? If I sold 500 I could break even.
RIchard Dansky is a BP subscriber; he's been a good writer in the RPG world - White Wolf mostly I believe...
If Buck had not stopped, his time would have been faster than Scott's, no? More to support your wise decision...
And unfortunately, because of the small sample size of "reality," if Soler ends up a star, it'll seem like a good decision; if he doesn't make the majors it'll be deemed a failure. And Soler's resulting career is only one input into judging the Cubs's call.
At least WGN broadcasts of Cubs games still use this footage. Watching Cubs-Twins right now, and it's like Arne Harris never left us...
Anthony Rizzo currently has the -exact- same OPS as he did last year in the minors for San Diego (1.056). So ipso facto his translated major league stats if he got called up to the Cubs would be a .523 OPS
Very cool breakdown. Thanks for the article.
Monday's game he was the DH, for some reason...
You don't have to ignore them; just know that online you can find "more accurate" or "truer" PECOTA projections.
"The funniest thing about this is that Mattingly's trouble with Burns over his 'hippie sideburns' actually preceded the real skirmish over his hair."
That's kind of amazing. I watched this way too many times as a kid and teenager and always "knew" that this was after Mattingly's hair skirmish...
Homer: You're Darryl Strawberry?
Homer: You play right field?
Homer: I play right field too, so, are you better than me?
Darryl: Well, I've never met you, but... yes.
A constantly used quote in my life. "I don't know you, but... Yes."
Great article Larry!
Nothing - "e" just means "encapsulated," so as to encapsulate the formatting of the BP book. Sometimes / often designates that the BP PDF will have DRM on it as well...
It seems unlikely the Twins would have had him in the majors so quickly.
Yes, absolutely, if it doesn't impact his performance. Just like anything else, it should be judged on fairness and results.
Hockey players tend to be hockey players, whereas a significant percentage of baseball players have had significant success in football and basketball.
I believe this rule was used in reverse in the late 70's / early 80's on Ted Turner when he, fed up with the Braves' performance, took over as manager briefly. After some pretty short period of time, someone in the NL president's office pointed out 20(e) prevented Turner from appointing himself manager.
12.15 million U.S. dollars