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Could someone reasonably argue that Taijuan Walker is a better prospect than Danny Hultzen? That figures to be a pretty interesting debate come offseason ranking season.
This more than makes up for no MILB Update earlier ;)
Two Friday's in a row without a legit MILB update. They are missed.
Must have very high standards if Taijuan Walker doesn't make the cut after a CG 2 hitter.
Premium level subscribers at BP should totally be able to download these shows at no extra cost.
From the blog of Dan Hoard, the Pawtucket Red Sox broadcaster -
"Weiland threw 70 of his 99 pitches for strikes and hit 94 mph on the radar gun. Four of his strikeouts came on just 3 pitches, and a breakdown of his 12 Ks shows how well Kyle used his entire repertoire.
Curveballs – 5 strikeouts
Cutters – 3 strikeouts
Changeups – 2 strikeouts
Fastballs – 2 strikeouts"
Do you agree with Jim Callis that Stephenson has a ceiling of a frontline starter? Granted, he's light years away from getting there.
Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen? Is it even close either way?
I didn't think he was going to pitch in the US until next year, but perhaps I'm wrong. He's only 17.
Hutchison seems ripe to get a bump to High-A and spend the rest of the year there.
Has Andrew Miller shown an average or better third pitch?
Taijuan Walker a surprising snub. Threw 7 2/3 shutout innings with 3 hits, a walk, and 6 strikeouts. One report had him hitting 97 on the gun. Hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts.
Blackmon or T.Wheeler - which one is the better prospect?
Never thought I'd see Gable and Colbert from It Happened One Night on the BP home page. Great movie, though.
Who is the better prospect at this point - Blackmon or T.Wheeler?
The comment about Rodriguez' hitting ability is a surprise, considering you wrote this in the Mets top 11:
"Beyond the power, he's also a sound hitter who makes more contact than most young sluggers."
With the way Thames is hitting, and the way guys like Encarnacion and Rivera aren't hitting, it may not be that long before we see him in the big leagues. A spot might open up if Lind hits the DL as well.
One of the best articles at BP in recent memory!
Don't you mean Mendez is making the transition from thrower to pitcher, not pitcher to thrower?
The biggest surprise is no Ariel Ovando for Houston. I mean, it's not like that organization has many guys who can match his ceiling.
Very readable article - and interesting. I remember Page's card too - I was a kid and had only been collecting for two years; I had several doubles of his I traded away several times to complete my set.
And I forgot to mention. I don't actually agree with where he is ranked in any of the cases. He really slipped in the second half, and is likely a longterm LFer, so all of his value is tied to his bat. He's a good prospect, but I suppose I'd be the outlier and rank him outside of the top 75.
11 is WAY too high for an A-baller who dominated half of a season. 63 is probably the "best" ranking I have seen.
Mayo had Singleton something like 27th. Law had him about 23rd. Needless to say, the 30s are about the consensus on him. 11 is just as much of an outlier as 63.
11, 23, 27, 32, 37, 50, 63 is what I've seen. Average of about 35.
A low point for Singleton, who has ranged from 11-39 on other prominent lists I've seen. If the BP annual is any clue, expect him to be an outlier here when he gets ranked 63rd next week.
Visually, it does look better.
One link that doesn't work:
Searching is also off... i.e, no results for "Pujols"
Where would you peg Luke Jackson to begin the season?
Are any of the top 4 close to being 5-stars?
A little disappointing that Younginer didn't crack the list, but unfortunately, it's not hard to see why. He's still interesting, though.
At his peak, what kind of HR totals could Parker put up? Playing in Coors won't exactly hurt his fantasy value, either.
Seaton is a major disappointment. His velocity has not been what it was reported to be prior to 2008 draft (when he was one of the 30 best prospects in the draft, per BA). I really liked him at the time and definitely expected a lot more than he's shown.
I really liked Hood when he was drafted -- thought he'd be an elite prospect by now -- but he hasn't seemed to have progressed much.
These 1:30-ish AM publishing times are genuinely great! Not only that, but the format seems to be better than ever this year.
I think he said before that they begin after the World Series.
Can Culberson be an everyday guy in the majors?
If you asked a bunch of people who they preferred between Lamb, Dwyer, Montgomery, Duffy... would there be a clear winner? It seems like one could fairly argue any of those to be KC's top pitching prospect.
What have evaluators been saying about Brad Hand this year?
that report: http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/20/full-scouting-report-dellin-betances/
Piliere graded his change as a 5 on the 2-8 scale and called his curve "impressive to say the least." First-hand reports via Twitter last night indicated the curve was filthy.
Well, you figure CC, Burnett, and Hughes will be there. Pettitte's probably back next year. Vazquez is probably gone. I'm probably forgetting somebody.
The Yankees rotation can be hard to crack. You see that as a major obstacle for Betances?
What have you been hearing on what kind of upside Locke has?
Care to elaborate on Duffy's "surprising" velocity? Any specific numbers?
+1 on Von Rosenberg
What's the word on Brad Hand, High-A Jupiter?
For a guy who throws 85-87 MPH (at least for now), Soto manages to be very intriguing.
Billy Owens, A's director of player personnel, on Ross' outing yesterday:
"He went five innings today and it was electric," Owens said. "He [threw his fastball] 94-98 mph and his slider was wicked. He showed a solid changeup and pitched very aggressively. I think it was great for Tyson to get a taste of the big leagues in a reliever capacity, now he knows what to work on down on the farm as a starting pitcher -- which is his comfort zone. Today, he was awesome."
What has clicked for Locke this year? He hasn't pitched this well since 2007. He kind of lost momentum in 08-09. But it's hard to complain the numbers he has posted this year.
Count me as one who would love to see Nelson start at 2B in COL.
What's the quick word on Syndergaard? Seemed to be a late riser this spring and not a whole out there on him.
I agree on the last part.
Would you feel comfortable putting Mesoraco in a top 100? Top 75? Top 50?
At this rate, you won't need to worry about him being in High A for long
While the other stuff on here is good, Goldstein's reports are a huge reason why I subscribe.
Is it a fair argument to call Betances the best pitching prospect the Yanks have?
What, no Howard Megdal?
I know I expected quite a bit more than 9 HR in Hosmer's first 725 minor league PA.
Tejeda quietly has 5 walks in his last 10 games.
Norris' lack of power is most likely related to the hamate bone injury, right?
He should be the closer sooner or later.
Blah. Seems like a couple of these things are nothing more than cuts and pastes from Twitter last night.
No more MILB update on Friday?
it's fairly obvious that Hafner was a roid creation.
I was very intrigued by that assignment for Fields. Would love to know what the scouts are saying about him and why he skipped SS/Low-A.
I notice a big time improvement in site speed.
Noesi can't be long for Tampa between his time there late last year and this kind of start. Plus Garcia is out in the Trenton rotation.
I think you mean Jered Weaver, not Jeff, at the end of the story.
Whither Robert Stock, the guy you officially blew up last summer? Seems like you've since exhaled and blew him back down a bit.
Judging by his fall in these rankings (from 3 stars last year to 2 or less this year), it seems like some luster has worn off Hood?
Where do you suspect Liriano will start the season?
It almost seems like you were a little more enthusiastic about Stock last summer when you proclaimed "It's official, I'm blowing this guy up." That kind of optimism and enthusiasm made me think he'd be 2 or (probably) 3 on this list.
This is the last time I order something from BN.com. I pre-ordered the book on 2/3 and for the last several days they seem to have the book in stock. Yet my expected ship date is still 2/22.
Barnes and Noble's website lags behind. Still get an expected ship of 2/22.
He barely misses the age cut off, but any flicker of hope for Jeff Francoeur?
I could not agree more.
Come up to NY's capital (Albany)!
Yeah, I expected Lyles to be a solid 4 star guy.
Did anyone offer theories as to what happened to Seaton last year? As you noted, he wasn't the guy people expected.
Awhile back, there were whispers of skipping Lyles and Seaton over Lancaster due to its awful pitching environment. I guess that's off the table?
Is it just me or has Chacin's star dimmed a bit in the past 12 months? Last year he was a 5 star guy.
Had the Jays signed their picks, where do you think they may have ranked?
Would Andrew Bailey and Trevor Cahill be in that 5-star range? They're both ranked between Ynoa (4) and Taylor (5).
Also interested in Leon.
Kent SHOULD eventually get into the HOF. One of the best offensive 2B of all time.
Utley's about two years older than Pujols is and Pujols is already the oldest player on this list. Utley will be 32-42 next decade... as great as he has been, that's probably too old for this list. But that's just my guess.
Tulowitzki, who turns 26 in late 2010, should have been in the top 20. I imagine his 2008 season held him back, but he was excellent in his first full season (2007) and was a monster from May on this year: from a CBSSports article: "He hit .344 with 16 home runs after the All-Star break and .326 with 27 home runs from the end of May, posting a slugging percentage over .600 and an OPS over 1.000 each of the last four months."
You're not the only Wood believer out there but he doesn't seem to have many left. It really is criminal how badly he has been handled by that organization. He should have gotten a... prolonged... chance well by now. Yeah, he's been awful with the extremely spotty and inconsistent at bats he's been given, but what do you expect with that type of usage. But I agree that the general consensus is that Wood is yesterday's news.
I wonder if Jepsen could eventually supplant the shaky Fuentes as closer.
He sounds like a guy who could be held back until the short season leagues.
So he didn't make the cut -- I can't imagine he missed by much -- but what would be Younginer's "perfect world projection" ?
Anyone see 19-year-old Jose Iglesias? While it's a (very) small sample size, it's at least encouraging to see the defensive whiz with a single, a double, a homer, and a walk in his first two AFL games. Boston must have seen SOMETHING in his bat to give him $6+ million dollars.
Yeah, seriously. How can you declare "hits" and "misses" in a draft that happened 4 months ago? 4 years from now, sure, but those kind of declarations are grossly premature right now. Just a waste of text.
I couldn't disagree more. That ending was great.
Teheren or Randall Delgado and how close is it?
Well, sure. It's a huge red flag, but his numbers are no worse than Skipworth's. Just wanted to see if there was anything we should hold out hope for, like with Skip.
No Anthony Hewitt? Has a couple HR in the last few games.
Anyway, will we see Friedrich and/or Carter get bumped up a level by the end of the year?
Is it really a slam dunk that, if Strasburg signs, that he'd beat out Heyward for #1 prospect in the land. (That's if you think Heyward is now)
Josh Fields = bust.
Not saying I disagree with Westmoreland, but that's pretty harsh to disregard Hood like that.
Destin Hood or Ryan Westmoreland?
I read (at BA) that one scout saw some Ellsbury in Gillies - you see that comp?
On the flip side of Flores is Jefry Marte, one of your top 100 prospects heading into the year. Though his last 10 games have been solid, his overall numbers have been miserable. How much can we hold those numbers against Marte? I mean, he's barely 18 and arguably never should have been in Low-A to begin with.
Do you think Hood gets a taste of Vermont or Hagerstown before the year is out?
It almost seems too easy to demote Detwiler, who has done nothing of late, and promote Mock into the post-break rotation. What kind of starter could Mock be?
What kind of upside does Scarpetta have at the major league level?
Josh Reddick enters 2010 as a top XX-XX (# range) prospect?
Where would Norris rank among catchers in the minors? Behind just Posey and Santana, perhaps?
Gotta wonder how much longer Chacin is in AA. They almost sent him to AAA to open the year.
Surprisingly, Gillies has a slightly higher OPS away from High Desert.
I believe Schmidt was their first rounder in 2007 -- not 2003.
This draft class (after Strasburg) in one word: uninspiring.
Apparently, Seaton might not be throwing his slider this year, a pitch BA called "devastating." In an interview, Lyles said pitchers only throw a FB, CB and a change in Lexington. In another interview, Seaton said "I’m trying to master the curve ball and bring back the slider after I master the curve ball."
Trevor Harden would have been a better choice than Justin Parker for AZ's "moving on up" section, but that's just me.
I wasn't shocked when they held Hicks back, but I would have thought we would have seen him in Beloit by now.
Great article. Bring on the NL.
Does Esmil profile as a starter or reliever?
Lets assume Locke's change and curve ultimately do fall in the "plus" category. What would he then project as?
That might be even better.
I can't wait either.
A much more positive review of Citi than Beningo and Roberts from WFAN.
Yeah, I don't see Ellsbury as a corner OF either, but if Reddick is to stay in CF, something is going to have to budge.
Any thoughts on Reddick's road to the majors?
Ellsbury isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but could Reddick force him out of CF and to a corner spot? The oft-injured Drew is expensive through 2011 though Bay is a FA after this season. If they re-sign Bay, that would seem to cloud the picture for Reddick, who is probably ready sometime in 2010.
How Reddick fits in with Boston is what I'm most curious about. I'm pretty sure he'll hit.
PS: Anyone happen to be at the Wisconsin game last night? Cody Scarpetta seemed pretty impressive, at least looking at the boxscore: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. 7 of the 8 K were swinging 3rd strikes, which is always nice to see.
Not a bad way to begin the year.
Great article. Exactly what the doctor ordered.
There's a lot in front of him, but Wilmer Font has the potential to make a lot of noise in the next few years. He's looked good enough this spring that he'll be with Low-A Hickory. Font's ceiling is sky high, perhaps comparable to that of any arm in that org, but last year didn't do Font any favors.
And I think Carlos Rivero has "a shot" to challenge for one of the top spots on that Indians list next summer. Opening the year as a 20 year old in AA, he'll look to keep hitting like he did at the end of last year for Kinston. One of my breakout guys.
Except there are no real jobs for graduating seniors to get, lol.
Weaver - declining production based on what? Maybe if you look at his ERA, but his K/9 jumped by 1.31/9 last year and he cut his WHIP from 1.390 in 2007 to 1.280 in 2008.
For the Brewers, what about Cody Scarpetta? BA and Sickels are in agreement that he's a potential breakout guy this year. Good stuff and good numbers last year (56 K in 36).
Arizona... look for Trevor Harden to be a lot more known this time next year. He blew away Pioneer League hitters and Sickels says he could become one of the better pitchers in the minors this year.
Jason Motte would likely give you as many strikeouts as Chris Perez would.
Are you going to do those "state of the system" pieces like you did last March?
or at least do a series of articles profiling the "just missed" guys from each team.
Perhaps telling that Motte gets a "CL" label vs a "RP" label?
I've read some reports that say Robbie Ross profiles similarly to Kiker - any truth to that?
What kind of ceiling does Font have?
And I've read some reports that Boscan could throw harder as he fills out. You buy it?
Whither Fautino De los santos? a 5 star guy last year, but tommy john surgery was a big blow to his development.... what do you think of him now? still have hope?
Mags is actually 35, not 37. But that\'s nitpicking.
How close was Brett Marshall to making it?
I\'m not sure who \"Rod Seaton\" is ... there is a ROSS Seaton, however.
Yeah, but he\'s also 23 and was in low-A.
... but I do think a lot of fans severely underrate Revere. They see he only hit 1 homer and ignore everything else.
Revere-Hicks are a tough two to rank. Depending on what you\'re looking for, it could go either way. I\'d take Hicks since his power ceiling his much higher, but they\'re both 5 star guys.
I\'d argue that Adenhart didn\'t get off to a great start. Sure, his 0.87 April ERA looked great, but he had a 15/19 BB/K and that isn\'t an indication of someone pitching that great. That promotion to the big leagues was ill-fated.
Among pitchers, I think I\'d put Reckling and Smith ahead of him, but that\'s just me.
Were Juan Ramirez or Hector Rondon ever in the discussion as you got towards the end?
Yeah, Hamilton should be on here. This is a terrible system and he\'s definitely one of their top 11 guys. He was probably a little rushed when he was in the MWL to start the year, but seemed to be much better in the GCL. He\'s probably more ready for the MWL now than he was a year ago.
Do you (or the people you\'ve spoken to) believe that Rondon has the capacity to improve his secondary pitches? In some ways, it seems like he\'s ahead of the curve now. He\'ll be in AA next year and just 21 the whole season.
Rondon just strikes me as someone who could skyrocket up industry lists after the 09 season.
At the same time, Kenny Williams said that Beckham will play SS in the minors this year.
Last year, Reddick was a 2 star guy. Guys improve all the time, but was there one thing that really stood out?
Tyler (Baltimore): KG - Where does Zach Britton fit in the equation amongst the O\'s pitching prospects?
Kevin Goldstein: There are scouts who would have put him in the Top 11, and I think the Orioles would too. For me, it was more of a 13-16 range. He\'s a lefty groundball machine, but I\'m not sure about the projection.
So you see Arrieta as some kind of starting pitcher, regardless of the development of his other pitches? That glass half empty isn\'t half bad... I thought it would have been a late inning reliever (closer?).
Also, on a more serious note, I was surprised that Zimmermann wasn\'t a five star guy. Detwiler was a mess for most of the year and Burgess strikes out way too much, though both remain intriguing for various reasons. Zimmermann is more polished than either of them and seems to have fewer questions - all the while having a pretty decent upside. Did Zimmermann get any 5 star consideration?
Certainly not one of the more riveting systems in the game. That being said, bring on the Orioles!
I\'m also wondering why these lists have slowed down greatly. They are behind last year\'s pace. By this time last year, the entire AL had been done, an AL update was done, and the NL had been started. Somewhat disappointing.
That said, he could be consumed by getting things done for the book. But there\'s a book every year.
More minor league analysis, be it from Goldstein or someone else brought in. Deric McKamey? Sickels?
A schedule with dates for Goldstein\'s top 11 lists as opposed to the vague \"coming soon\".
Weekly chats with a minor league analyst, like weekly Callis/BA chats at ESPN.
A corresponding chat/mailbag for every top 11 list.
A message board for subscribers only
Major league statistical trends analysis, like Brandon Kruse at Baseball HQ does.
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (as of Opening Day 2009)
1. Cole Hamels, LHP
2. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
3. Michael Taylor, RF
4. Kyle Drabek, RHP
5. Travis D\'Arnaud, C
6. Lou Marson, C
7. Jason Donald, SS
8. Dominic Brown, OF
9. J.A. Happ, RHP
10. Zach Collier, RF
Happ is 26 as is.
What did you think of milb.com ranking Escobar as the 8th best prospect in baseball this week?
How confident were you in giving Chacin a 5? I always had the impression he was a guy you liked but didn\'t necessarily love and as such expected a 4... but have no qualms with a 5.
I had read before that his changeup was a \"go to\" pitch but apparently not?
You briefly mentioned Greg Reynolds, who ranked 3rd on this list last year. Is it time to give up on him long-term, or should we give him a mulligan, ala Tulo?
You stated \"Brian Bogusevic\'s transition is going well, though he\'s not a center fielder in any way, shape, or form. The Astros can trade Hunter Pence and improve a little bit.\"
Does this mean Bogusevic is on Pence\'s level talent-wise?
Put it on the schedule!
Detwiler had a letdown year for sure, but his last 10 starts seemed to be a small step in the right direction:
What happened to Fielder this year? He simply hasn\'t been anywheres near as good as he was last year.
I like this series and got into it more as the season wore on. Good, interesting analysis in a nice format.
One thing I meant to include earlier is - what kind of ceiling does Rondon have? He seems like an exciting prospect.
Regarding Cortes; what kind of projection would you pen on him? Several sources claim front of the rotation potential, while others say back-end. Is a #3 (or better) a legit possibility?
I know he wasn\'t outlined here, but one prospect to finish the year VERY strong was Brewers C Angel Salome. Does his height limit his upside, or does he have serious potential behind the plate?
Where\'s the minor league pitching leaders column, which was supposedly due on the day this one was posted? What about Monday\'s 10 pack?