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Love the work CJ. I have a bigger picture regarding the draft and prospects. T. Ball was selected 7th overall and he's , "a long way away...from being a back end of the rotation starter." Even though he has the tools, is this typical for such a early pick? Was he a reach or was the 2013 draft exceptionally shallow?
Another great article. How about a look at <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48428">Steve Pearce</a></span>, do you see a buy low guy? In terms of a fantasy, he's now 2B eligible, so I'm rooting for a bounce back. however, the eye test says, "yuck".
I'm excited to see your column again. I was debating the Pineda question myself but, I was sniped so it became moot.
I'm in a 10 team keeper league and I'm debating what I should do with Wainwright. He's been my workhorse ace for the last few years, but I'm wondering if this is the time to sell when the sellin's good.
Oh Archie, I held on to you all year even though I was pretty sure you'd never come up. However, I do look forward to you taking up a roster spot next year on my team while you "continue to develop". But now, you aren't even an honorable mention. So sad.
Negative results are still results worth knowing. All articles don't have to point to a significant change in style/profile for the information to be worthwhile.
"While there are a few anomalies, they appear to be the result of variance more than a process change at this point."
I love the real life example as a way to describe a theoretical concept. Nice article.
Calhoun is a good candidate, but may have trouble with sample size. I like Calhoun long term.
Man, there are so many potential options. Off the top of my head...
Does Porcello's ground ball tendencies and relative youth make him a worth another chance?
Will Votto's power come back and make him a buy low candidate?
Is Brantley legit or should we sell high?
Is Alfredo Simon waiting for a second half correction or is he legit? Also, can we use him as a model for relievers who successfully transition to the starting rotation.
I can't imagine you'll never run out of players.
These articles are great. The only issue is that it clearly takes considerable time to put together the comprehensive argument, but there are so many players who I'd like to see evaluated in this way.
I'm starting wonder when the Cards give Rosenthal a demotion. Motte hasn't exactly been a reliable option, but perhaps if he starts to put it together again?
You seem too ready receive an all out comment attack. I like that you didn't go with a standard predictable list. Shows #balls that you put younger guys with a forcastable future above known quantities who may be on the way down. (Rendon/Profar vs. Carpenter) To not do so would be a waste of an article.
The Yanks' system only has one guy in the top 100 at #85. I wonder if this drop is due to the change in draft pick price slotting and the cap on international draft money pool. I'm not a Yank fan, but I don't remember any major trades recently that emptied thier system.
I love trying to compare and contrast scouts comments regarding top prospects that make it and those who don't. Clearly, not all promising players can achieve their potential, but I'd like to see if some scout phrases/buzzwords are more indicative as to future success.
I agree with you here. Scouting for the pro leagues is a different animal than scouting players for a college program. It's all about window of opportunity since a high ceiling prospect typically needs at least a few years to achieve that potential.
Despite being a Sox fan, I appreciate seeing a contrary article regarding The Trade. Although I may not agree with all your arguments, the one point I have a problem with is your discussion regarding the cost the Sox had to pay to acquire the players it then sent to LA.
These prospects and picks are the definition of "sunk cost" and should never be part of a future decision or in the analysis of that decision.
The path of Rizzo from the Red Sox to Padres to Cubs following the paths of Hoyer and Epstein has got to be unique. Is there another case of a player being traded at least twice TO the same GM as he moves to new clubs?
OF assists as a stat can be as misleading as errors. It could be that Jeremy's arm is so bad that everyone tries for third, so he nails a guy every once in a while. This being said, I have no idea about his arm strength, just a point regarding your observation.
I find this type of article a great counter balance to the metric based foundation of BP. It's a great way to learn some advanced points of the "tools" by using minor and major leaguers as case studies.
Weird. Entertaining as hell, but still weird.
If we assume that the Japanese leagues are somewhere between AAA and the majors, it would be logical to assume that a Japanese pitcher's numbers would worsen slightly when coming to the states. Because of this, I think we have to look closer at Kuroda because his numbers have actually improved. How has he managed this and is it likely Iwakuma will reproduce this? This may be the difference between him becoming a 5th starter in the American League and something much more valuable.
Since I'm a Sox fan, I would gladly take your proposed package to acquire Gonzalez. However, is that rich enough for the Padres with a full year remaining on his contract? I would think they'd want a high quality pitching prospect in the mix.
With expanded rosters Reddick will be back up, but he had his shot this year. With Ellsbury and Drew playing 80-90% of the games, plus Nava and McDonald, AND finding enough at bats for Kalish to show what he can do, Reddick will need to wait until next year or a trade. This is regardless of what he can manage in the last few weeks of the minor league season.
Great list. Since Type A and B classification doesn't always make sense, this is a great cheat sheet to have.
Have you given any thought to an organizational ranking of systems in general? As a companion to the "snapshot" ranking, how about a more comprehensive "over the last 3-5 years" list. This would take things like Latin American signings, success rate of drafted players, and use of prospects as trading pieces into account.
Here ya go...
This is interesting, but not completely suprising. We see a combination of the defensive spectrum and pitching. I wonder how the OF prospects would break down LF/CF/RF now, and when they actually make the bigs.
I agree with your point regarding small market teams' allocation of money, but from the players' union perspective, why would they care if the low market teams "get better"? Increasing the pay and benefits of the members of the union is their biggest concern, not improving the long term win/loss record of low market team
It seems as though luck in the way of injuries could be a major factor and it doesn't seem fair to pin it that on the GM. Taking your example of the Yanks in 08 and BoSox in 06, both of those teams were absolutely decimated by injuries but went on to win the World series the next year.
I like how Kevin Goldstein does it in his Top 11 Prospects list. In this manner, it's easy to compare farm systems based upon the number of 5 and 4 star prospects. In Fantasy Focus, it would indicate how deep a particular position would be.
Perhaps a way of normalizing the different positions would be to base them on the round they "should" be drafted. For example, call 1st and 2nd round players 5 star, 3rd and 4th round players 4 star.
An advantage the MLB has over the NFL, NBA, and NHL is the excitment that a non-salary capped league has regarding trades. By allowing draft picks to be a part of a team's aresenal of commodities, the teams that are cash strapped may still participate in off-season or deadline deals. This could enhance MLB's trade season advantage as well as narrow the gap regarding general interest in the draft.
"Suck on that, success!"
I'm interested in hearing some outside opinions on Dan Bard of the Red Sox. The local coverage is all ga-ga about his 95-100mph fastball, but I'm curious to hear if he can pitch.
I assume this agent wouldn\'t have given the interview unless he was made Anonymous, but do you find you are more likely to get straight-forward answers that when identities are protected? For example, AA was very candid regarding Oakland, Detroit and KC, but seemed unwilling to even make a guess at Manny\'s location.
As a reader, I\'m willing to place trust in some writers to use un-named sources if it results in less spin and more forthright answers. Interesting article
\"pulling the Rangers into a three-way deal that sends Texas a couple of hurlers from the starting pitcher surplus, sends a third party someone from among the Rangers\' quartet of catching prospects, and brings the Cubs a quality lefty bat for center\"
I generally try to avoid proposing trade senarios, but this seems like a obvious match. Additional parts will obviously be included but the gist would be...
Boston sends Coco Crisp (lefty leadoff CF) to Cubs
Cubs send pitching to Texas
Rangers send C to Boston
We all consider the detrimental effect of having two significant candidates on the same team, but I wonder how much that actually impacts a player\'s chances of victory. Is there a siphoning effect?
I don\'t have the info in front of me, but has a player ever won the MVP with a team mate in the top 3 or top 5?
Well I sat next to another good friend of Pat Burrell who said that Pat would rather sign with the team that gave him the best offer. As long as he liked the city that is...
Red Sox: Trade for new starting C, attempt to dump Lugo take advantage of current market to trade Crisp. Finally, when things get stressful and you need a chuckle, listen to Boras talk about how Varitek is worth $54M over 4 years.
\"Kevin Youkilis, who can play Gold Glove-caliber defense at three positions.\"
I\'d definetly agree that he\'s Golden at 1st and very good at 3rd, but where is his 3rd position? He\'s only played 20 games in the outfield in the last three years combined.
The only statistical difference between the two samples is the pitches per PA. Since the strike percentage is nearly identical, this would indicate that the batter has become more patient. My theory would be that \"protection\" is simply increased plate discipline as a result of higher confidence.
The biggest X-factor of the short series is the use of only the top 3 or sometimes 4 pitchers on the staff. Is there a way to filter for this? Obviously, team A\'s #5 doesn\'t always play team B\'s #5 throught the season so it may not be possible.