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Mike Petriello
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Mike Petriello
(32369)
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The dollar values are actually correct, but I think I transposed them between mixed and AL/NL. For example, McCarthy is $10 and $4, just the opposite of how I mistakenly displayed them.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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It's a great question, and I agree. However, I haven't seen a lot of noise that signals Arroyo wouldn't make the cut, largely just due to his salary. It'd have to mean that all three of the guys you mentioned really excelled this spring, and sadly, Bailey got lit up last night by the Dodgers. (After I filed this, of course.)

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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There's a small yet vocal subset of Dodger fans who take delight in referring to him as "Thunder Thighs".

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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$-34! I love that.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Yeah, I've been a big fan of his for a while. Hoping to pick him up reasonably this year.

 
Mike Petriello
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I'd put Morrow & Baker a step above the other guys you have there, but there's merit to that idea. Amazing how much things have changed over the last few years now that power is so much harder to come by.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Not only that, the lack of international spending is killing them. Look at how few Latino names are on KG's list, and the only members of the 40-man from outside USA/Canada are Ramon Troncoso, Kenley Jansen, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Uribe, Trent Oeltjen, Juan Rivera, and Silverio. Other than Jansen and Silverio, not much to be proud of.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks! I did Scherzer early in the series: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15336 I still like him but the K rate concerns me. And one of these days I'll stop confusing him with Rick Porcello.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Consider Ervin added for next week.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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In his favor, I think, is that he's not some totally out of nowhere guy - at one time, he was a pretty highly-regarded prospect. It's pretty easy to think that a lot of his problems were simply due to trouble staying healthy, and when he finally got that out of the way his talent was able to shine through. He also reportedly made some pretty big mechanical adjustments about 2 years ago that seem to have been paying off, big time. Of course, he's still a non-elite strikeout guy with a spotty history on a terrible team. So bid with caution.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I think that's right about on the edge of being right for him, so you could really go either way and not lose sleep over it. If you're keeping other starters, I might let him go, but if not, it may be worth hanging on.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I took a look at McCarthy a few weeks ago: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15745 I agree. I like him - a lot - but there's definitely a lot of things to be concerned with there.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Great question, Ben. Your guess is pretty close to correct. Obviously, not everyone has the same guy at the same price in each league. Greinke's actually a great example, because I'm guessing that his prices were wildly different just based on when drafts were held last year, because if you drafted right after he hurt himself playing basketball, I'm sure he wasn't going for as much as he was before that. So much of this is about perceived value and buying low. For example, I got a complaint a few weeks ago that I didn't consider Madison Bumgarner a shallow league keeper despite how good he was last year. If you happened to pick him up for $1, then sure, but I think his name value lags far behind his real value and it's likely you can pick him up reasonably in the draft. What I try to do here is guesstimate a "middle of the road" value and league. It's not a one size fits all thing, unfortunately.

 
Mike Petriello
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Sure thing!

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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That said, I didn't answer your question. Sure, I'll write on him next week - thanks for the suggestion.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Harrison's one of those "better in real life than in fantasy" guys for me, largely because his strikeout rate is so poor. Double digit wins, low ERA, 180+ innings are still valuable of course.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I will now take up the "Steve McCatty for HOF" flag.

Jan 10, 2012 9:13 AM on Watching Jack Play
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Well, he was never ranked even in BA's top 100, which was the basis for that comment. I like him a lot, and I plan on getting him in as many leagues as I can next year. It's just that his short track record and the lousy offense to support him means that unless you're in the deepest league or have little other options, I don't think he's a top priority as a keeper.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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You could do it the same way I do when I can't remember if I already wrote about someone. Just search for the player's name here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/search/ and make sure to select the proper author from the dropdown. For OF, that's Rob; for C/2B/SS that's Jong, for SP that's me.

 
Mike Petriello
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Yes. I'm just not confident that they'll be a lot better next year. Sure, they'll get Posey back - though we'll see how he is after that injury - but they'll not have Beltran as they did late last year.

 
Mike Petriello
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And I live in New York, and have never once been to that field. The odd things that stick in your mind..

 
Mike Petriello
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I'll admit I'm not a Strat-O-Matic player and that I may be missing out some key items that may influence the strategy there. That said, I think your logic makes sense when looked at in standard fantasy terms, though I think an argument could be made for Beachy just based on his much higher strikeout totals. You're certainly correct in needing a solid RHP option on that staff, though.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Morton's risky because he's recently had hip surgery and might not be healthy to start the season. I like Norris - depends on your other options, I'd think.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Good point. Probably. Though it's hard to say for sure without seeing how it really plays.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Juice, I have yet to see a source that says this deal would start after 2012 rather than beginning with 2012.

Nov 15, 2011 12:05 PM on Kemp Stays in LA
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Kemp just turned 27. How is this contract covering his "nonprime years"?

Nov 15, 2011 9:28 AM on Kemp Stays in LA
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I suppose I did, though I usually try to only use ERA when comparing it to an advanced metric like FIP or SIERA. Fair points - I will try to be more consistent.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Are you saying you'd get all three instead of Verlander? I suppose it depends on if you're rebuilding or going for it next year, and how much of your total the $40 eats up.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Good call on Cecil; Niemann was included last week: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15336

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Corey Dawkins is still active in the offseason with news and notes on injuries; in Johnson's case, I think there just hasn't been a whole lot of new info lately.

 
Mike Petriello
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Consider it done.

 
Mike Petriello
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Surprisingly underrated, isn't he? You're right about his inability to get past the 6th, though, and that will cost him some wins. I will look into him deeper soon.

 
Mike Petriello
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Good ones. Marcum was already on my list for next week, he's a very interesting case.

 
Mike Petriello
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This is a great point. I'm not sure if such a study has been done, but it would stand to reason that it's true. I also think that Garza varying his pitch usage really helped him as well.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks, PapaGiorgio! This column here is about starting pitchers, and Wandy and Sanchez are great ones. For the other guys, be sure to ask about them in the appropriate position columns, a different one running each weekday.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Great suggestions. Nearly enough for a column right there! I'll add those to the list for next week and future weeks.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks - glad you find them useful. Paulino's on the list for next week, he should be an interesting one.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks for the great requests. I'm traveling for the next few days, but will include as many as I can in next week's look.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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All good choices - and you have a solid core there, so well done. I'd probably go with Morrow simply because of the strikeout stuff and the uncertain health of Hanson. With CC, Stras, and Halladay heading up your rotation, you can afford to take a risk.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Love the suggestions. You guys are making my life easy. Will try to touch on them all next week.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Good ones. Sale will be a tough call what with the role conversion.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Have to agree. The wins make him wildly overrated, but A) wins still count in fantasy and B) that probably means you can trade him for far more than he's worth.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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In the sense that his peripherals are better than his results? Not yet, I don't think. He's only been a full-time starter for 56 starts over two seasons.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Definitely open to requests. All three (here and above) are great ones, will definitely add them to the list.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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This is great, Geoff, amazing what impact one draft could have. One thing - Bryan Morris never pitched for the Dodgers and so far hasn't done anything with the Pirates, but he did bring value to LA by being part of the deal that sent Manny Ramirez west.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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"there are not too many guys who are largely under the radar who could potentially bash 20 to 30 dingers. Morse is one of my big sleepers this year, if only for the potential, however small, of a huge payoff." Wow, good call, Mike.

Sep 27, 2011 9:45 AM on Outfield Review
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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There's definitely some names out there, but the uncertainty is whether the clubs will actually give their youngsters starts or just toss them a few bullpen innings to try to acclimate them for next season - if even that. Some AL possibilities include Matt Moore (TB), Dellin Betances (NYA), Manny Banuelos (NYA), Addison Reed (CHA), Martin Perez (TEX), maybe Jacob Turner (DET).

 
Mike Petriello
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Also true. Save for one lousy start and one rain-shortened one, he's really been outstanding since coming to Detroit.

 
Mike Petriello
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Rex Brothers is a favorite of mine. Possibly Aroldis Chapman, if he's not starting. And who knows what'll happen w/ the White Sox.

Aug 18, 2011 2:55 PM on Relievers for 8-18-11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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To clarify, I'm not suggesting that I or anyone else knew that the 19th inning was going to be the one where the game ended. It's just that if Hanrahan > McCutchen, which we do agree on, then Hanrahan should have pitched before McCutchen. McCutchen is your "break glass in case of emergency" arm if the game goes that long. I would have used Hanrahan in the 10th (and maybe 11th) innings, and to your point that if Hanrahan had been the one holding the Braves scoreless instead of the other guys, the idea is that Hanrahan is far, far more likely to do so. Just because the other Pirate relievers managed to throw that many scoreless innings doesn't mean the process was correct.

Aug 18, 2011 12:16 PM on Relievers for 8-18-11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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If we're talking about that game specifically, Daniel McCutchen was in his 6th inning of relief, and ended up throwing 92 pitches. I don't think anyone would argue that McCutchen is a better pitcher than Hanrahan, so how did it help the team to lose with a tired McCutchen while their best reliever never saw the mound?

Aug 18, 2011 7:11 AM on Relievers for 8-18-11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Me too, clearly. I picked him up cheaply in every league I was in this year; fortunately, I rode out his early season slump in every league except for one, which had an an extremely short bench.

Aug 11, 2011 1:10 PM on Meditating on Morse
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Part of his trouble in 2010 was that Torre refused to stop using him against righties, who were killing him, and just stick with him vs lefties, who he was quite good at getting out.

Aug 04, 2011 4:36 PM on Relievers for 8/4/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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If Nunez gets moved, it sounds like Edwin Mujica is the next in line for the job, per Jack McKeon: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/21/2323574/florida-marlins-edward-mujica.html

Jul 21, 2011 7:18 AM on Relievers for 7/21/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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A+. We need to make that the official name of that pitch.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Good point. I would hope that the Alderson-led Mets wouldn't let that kind of sentimentality factor in to their decision making.

Jul 14, 2011 9:44 AM on Relievers for 7/14/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Jansen has been the best Dodger reliever since returning from injury - striking out 13 while allowing just two singles in 9.2 innings. Parnell's peripherals are actually pretty good, not as many walks as you'd expect for a guy with that kind of strikeout stuff. 30/9 K/BB thus far.

Jul 14, 2011 9:43 AM on Relievers for 7/14/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I do think that we'll see Moore at some point, for sure. Who he replaces could depend on any moves the Rays make at the deadline, though allowing him to take some pressure off of Hellickson would certainly help.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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It's a good point about Ogando's age, though the abnormal way in which he got to the bigs later than others makes him very difficult to compare to anyone.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I agree, let me just clarify what I wrote above - I don't think that Feldman is replacing anyone right now. I just think that if he does, Holland is the more likely to go than Ogando. But no, Holland is not being replaced currently.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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After I posted this, the Rangers did have to go throw a wrench into things by actually activating Feldman rather than cutting him, so that does affect Ogando somewhat. I think Derek Holland is the most likely candidate to be replaced, though.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I don't think Crow is the best man for the job, but I do think he's the most likely to take over if Soria is moved. He's an "All Star", right? That said, I do not expect Soria to be traded this month.

Jul 08, 2011 8:39 AM on Relievers for 7/7/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Perez and League, no question. They're guaranteed jobs, while Hernandez probably is the closer for just a few more days.

Jul 07, 2011 10:57 AM on Relievers for 7/7/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Good info here. He's really been underrated for a few years now. Put in another situation, he'd probably have 35 saves and be a megastar.

Jul 07, 2011 6:26 AM on Relievers for 7/7/11
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Gonzoman, my money's on Parnell.

Jul 06, 2011 2:04 PM on Relievers
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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All true. The one that particularly stands out to me is the Dodgers one, simply because he walked both Juan Uribe and Dioner Navarro - completely unforgivable. Walden was better last night, and I agree with you that his job is probably safe for now.

Jun 30, 2011 10:44 AM on Relievers
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I don't know that Guerra's numbers are all that likely to be better. He walked something like 7 per 9 in AA last year, and while he's off to a good MLB start this year, he's only 9 games into his career. With Kuo, Jansen, and Padilla all possibly coming off the DL in the next few weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if Guerra gets sent back down at some point.

Jun 09, 2011 2:47 PM on Relievers
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Oh I agree, he's in no danger of losing his spot. I just think he'll be unavailable for at least 3-4 days, and that could open up some time for Sanchez.

Jun 09, 2011 9:45 AM on Relievers
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks! Glad you find helpful.

Jun 09, 2011 9:44 AM on Relievers
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Padilla, absolutely. Closer to health, more likely to get save chances, SP-eligible.

 
Mike Petriello
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Glad I could help!

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Yikes. I guess we can tone down the Veras talk entirely after today.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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re: Holland, the Royals have such an interesting collection of arms right now. For the AL-only deep pick, I went with Alburquerque, but I could have just as easily went with Coleman, Collins, or Holland. Holland has indeed gotten off to a very nice start this year, but it's just that - a start - and he wasn't as effective last year, nor did he even make KG's top 20: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12470 That's not to say Holland can't be useful or effective; just that I think he's pretty far down the pecking order for saves. re: Moore, that is definitely more of a Kevin G question (or also R.J. Anderson or Jason Collette, who are each Rays fans). My non-expert opinion there is that we'll probably see him this year, but I wouldn't bank on this month.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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xavier, this is a really great question. I did include Veras on this list about three weeks ago, and he's done an excellent job this year in terms of strikeouts. For $1 in an NL only, it's certainly worth the risk. That said, I don't see him jumping ahead of Meek right now. In three innings since he's returned, he has 4 K and has allowed just one baserunner. Unless he gets hurt or blows up, I do think he'll still be the next-in-line if Hanrahan gets moved.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Ha. I could have *sworn* I wrote "is superior" there.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks, Josh. Great insight here. I do like Jim Johnson, and I think he was actually on this list for part of last year, before he was injured. If it were up to me, I'd put him ahead of Gregg in the pecking order as well, but he's clearly 3rd at best in line for saves, and possibly 4th if they let Mike Gonzalez' closer pedigree and big contract overcome his terrible performance. Still, if he keeps up his successful ways, he's definitely a name worth noting in deeper leagues, especially AL only. The Baltimore bullpen is actually pretty bizarre, in that it *could* be very good if everyone's healthy and performing to their capabilities. Uehara, Gonzalez, Johnson, Gregg & Accardo are a pretty solid fivesome, in theory. It just never seems to work out that way.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I should point out that I submitted this article before Loe went out and blew last night's game... though I will hardly kill a guy for letting Joey Votto take him deep.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I did see the Howard homer, and it was totally crushed. No doubt about it. Melancon did pick up the win, which was nice, but he was also lucky enough to have the Astros walk off against Guerrier in the bottom of the 9th. "Pitcher of record" strikes again!

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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100 BP points to you sir, because finding a reliever who is eligible as a starter is one of my favorite tricks, and one I've written about here several times over the last two years (Padilla, Contreras, Uehara, etc). It absolutely applies to Crow as well - my fault for neglecting to mention it. Good catch.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Kuo: absolutely no idea. Mental issues are impossible to predict. Regarding save chances for the rest of the year, I'll actually say Broxton. Padilla's back to the DL, and Broxton should be back in a few weeks.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Perhaps. I'm not totally convinced it'd be as simple as going to Crow, however, with Jeffress and Collins also around.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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That's a great question, and one I've been following closely as a Dodger fan. Kuo's history is a lot more complicated than Greinke or Votto's; as you probably know, he's fought through a LOT to get here, with two Tommy Johns among four elbow surgeries. He's also had a case of the "yips" before (and I hate calling it that). In 2009, he was on the DL for months with what was termed elbow soreness, but was also a case where he had completely lost control of the ball. (I remember one game right before he went on the DL where he was warming up out in the bullpen, and he interrupted the game twice because his warmup pitches ended up in the infield). I don't pretend to know what's going on inside his head, and I also can't imagine what it's like to be so talented and to work that hard, yet to continually have injuries get in your way. For his sake, I hope he can overcome what's ailing him. Back to your question, if you have room to stash him on the DL, I would, because he's that good when he's right. But there's no timetable for his return and I wouldn't expect it to be soon, so he should be dropped in most cases.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I briefly considered him, and then I saw his 11/11 K/BB rate. I couldn't really sell that, I don't think. It was a slow week as far as bullpen changes go, but some of the lower-owned AL guys that come to mind can be Aaron Crow, Jeremy Jeffress, Carlos Villanueva, and Brad Ziegler.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks for noticing. That movie is so ingrained in my brain that I didn't even do it consciously.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Of course, after I sent this article in, Sanchez has to go and get taken deep by Mike Stanton. If anything, that just furthers the idea that the St. Louis bullpen is going to be a carousel for a while.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Hmm, good point - on both ends.

 
Mike Petriello
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Good call, I did write this before that game ended. Sanchez has now K'd 10 of 17. Still, those 17 batters represent the extent of his MLB experience, and Boggs did get the save, so I don't think we'll see Sanchez in the 9th - yet.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Probably Jeffress or Collins, though I don't think Soria's going anywhere any time soon.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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And the Dodgers dodged a bullet when the Giants beat them out for Huff, I think. Are you basing that opinion of DeJesus on the few at-bats he's had this season? I agree that I don't think he'll be a star, and I'm not sold he'll even be a regular. But what I do know is that Miles is atrocious, with no hope of improvement. You can at least dream on DeJesus' youth fueling progression.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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To be fair, I saw the email saying that you'd picked up Sands in Box and kicked myself. Definitely worth the spot.

 
Mike Petriello
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That, Rob, is the million dollar question, and it's one I've never been able to find a sufficient answer to. His K/BB peripherals are similar in both places, but for whatever reason he's just not been able to get solid wood on the ball at home. Without any thing to back this up, one guess of mine has always been that Dodger Stadium has a somewhat undeserved reputation as being a park that kills homers, when it more accurately suppresses doubles and triples. As Loney's not a guy who gets a lot of homers anyway, losing those extra base hits could be killer for him. As I said, that's just a hypothesis, nothing to be taken as fact.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I think you nailed it right there, with your story about the O's fan. Other fans - and presumably, a few teams - still see the hot prospect with the nice swing and lots of RBI. The Dodgers would never get much for him, but it wouldn't take much to make moving him worthwhile, either.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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With Ozzie, anything's possible, right? That said, ERA isn't the best indicator here. I like Santos, but he's going to have to keep the walks down if he's going to get a shot. 4.5/9 last year isn't that great.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Thanks for the compliment, and the feedback. Definitely noted.

 
Mike Petriello
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That's not a bad idea, I'll consider possibly doing that. Of course, then I look forward to the people going, "really, i should waste a roster spot on Wilton Lopez?!"

 
Mike Petriello
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I wouldn't just yet. For Batista to be relevant, first Franklin will need to continue to struggle, then LaRussa would have to actually remove him, then he'd have to really make the choice to use Batista instead of Motte or Boggs, and then Batista would have to actually be good. Seems like a lot of unlikely steps to me.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Sounds like you're in a good, deep league. It's a tough line to walk here sometimes, because while looking at guys who are at 20% ownership or less helps the majority of people, there are always some leagues like yours where that's not good enough - but then if we were to only look below, say, 5%, then most of those guys aren't worth recommending anyway.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Is there evidence to support that? I hadn't heard this before. Would be interesting if true.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I think the answer is the same in all three places. The understudy (Rauch, Fuentes, League) starts off the season, then gets replaced when the other guys come back healthy. That'll probably happen soonest in Toronto.

 
Mike Petriello
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I heartily approve of this article.

 
Mike Petriello
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I wouldn't think so. I'd rather chance that Bailey will be healthy than that Lyon will be good. Sounds like staying put may be your best option.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Sorry. I should have realized that in an article about closers, that's who you meant. I haven't seen many updates about Bailey, and he hasn't pitched since getting hurt. Having thrown only 1.1 IP thus far, coming off arm surgery, I cannot imagine he's ready for Opening Day. In that case, I'm not sure I'd make the deal. Bailey > Putz when healthy, but Putz seems closer to being healthy, has less competition, and the additional year of control helps you too.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I'm told that PFM will be updated prior to the weekend, so should be ready for weekend drafts.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Assume this is referring to Homer Bailey? I'm optimistic about him; I think I chose him as my pitching sleeper in our recent season predictions. Look at his 2010; he wasn't great in the beginning, but after missing time with an injury he was excellent upon returning. In 10 starts after August 15, he had a 59/19 K/BB. He's also increased his K/BB every year of his career, and is at 12/3 thus far in spring. If your question is, "should I trade $1 Putz for $1 Bailey and a hitter," I probably would, depending on your situation. Who is the hitter? Do you have depth in your relievers? I like Putz, but he's injury prone on a lousy team, and you can always find saves as the season goes on. Meanwhile, Bailey may be ready to break out.

 
Mike Petriello
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People like to claim that the Braves did this with Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez a few years ago, but that's not really the case; it was mostly Gonzalez for one half, then mostly Soriano for another half. There's been 8 times since 1993 where a team has managed to get 3 relievers with at least 10 saves, and it's almost always been due to injury or ineffectiveness, not by design. I'm not saying it can't work - I like the idea - just that it almost never does.

 
Mike Petriello
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re: the two comments about X.Paul above, I think his chances to make the team grow greater by the day. Yes, his .318 spring OBP isn't much to look at, but he started off dreadfully before really turning it around lately. pobothecat is right when he says the competition in LF for the Dodgers is weak, and even moreso because Jay Gibbons has been absolutely horrendous - just 4 singles to his name this spring so far while fighting the flu and vision problems. Just yesterday (warning: shameless plug) I argued that Gibbons didn't deserve to make the team and that Paul should get a chance instead: http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2011/03/22/is-jay-gibbons-the-best-use-of-a-roster-spot/ I've always been a big fan because of his very good minor league numbers (improved his OPS each year for 5 years in a row) and his strong arm. He's never made his mark in the bigs, though 55 games over 5 stints in 2 years hardly seems fair. He's probably going to make the team if only because the injuries to Garland & Padilla are going to allow them to carry just 4 starters until they need #5 somewhere around April 12. That said, there's no guarantee that he survives past April, and it's hard to think of him as a fantasy option right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Sometimes, but not always; see Neftali Feliz last year. I understand what you mean, though. Storen is definitely a buy-low guy right now, and that's fine, but don't give up too much for him. Even if he does get the job - which is questionable- he's not a top-tier closer, at least this year.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks. That's a tough question. Probably.. 1) Thornton 2) Nathan 3) Putz 4) Street. If healthy, Nathan > Thornton, but that's a lot to put on him right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ha. I hadn't even noticed that, but it turns out you're right. Totally unintentional. I almost went with Felix over Halladay, but figured that Roy's likely to get more wins and that's more important in fantasy than in real life.

 
Mike Petriello
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Davis, I should also note, is having a great spring thus far, with 3 homers and an OPS over 1.100.

 
Mike Petriello
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As a Dodger fan, the thought is somewhat depressing, but the pieces are falling into place for it. He's doing well, Gibbons is MIA, it's too soon for Sands..

 
Mike Petriello
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I still think his future is in the rotation, but his 2011 is probably in the bullpen. I couldn't help but chuckle at Ron Washington's quote that if Feliz goes to the rotation, he wants an experienced closer.. as though the inexperienced Feliz didn't crush it for him last year.

Mar 15, 2011 2:49 PM on Feliz Throws A Changeup
 
Mike Petriello
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I don't think it's as clear-cut as that, because Gregerson will have a say, but yeah, probably Adams.

 
Mike Petriello
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I think it's Gregg's job until proven otherwise. He's got the new contract, the shiny saves number, and Gonzalez hasn't shown himself to be any more durable than Uehara. In theory, a late-inning crew of Uehara, Gregg, Gonzalez, and Jim Johnson could be pretty decent, though 3 of the 4 have health concerns.

 
Mike Petriello
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This is a great question, Pepe. I saw Cory mention that in his chat the other day as well, and I considered including him in today's piece. Part of me wants to see Peralta take the job and own it, just to see what'd happen if lowly Washington non-tendered a guy who ends up getting 35 saves for an AL East contender. To answer your question... I think Peralta's intriguing, but I'm not as high on him as Cory is. I realize that his 2010 stats look great, but don't forget that he spent the first half of the year in the minors, coming off of two pretty atrocious years in KC and Colorado. I have a hard time thinking that three good months from a guy who's about to be 35 is worth more than a career's worth of mediocrity. Peralta's also got a pretty terrible track record of getting out lefties, as R.J. Anderson outlined recently at the Process Report: http://theprocessreport.com/2011/03/04/should-joel-peralta-be-the-rays-closer/ . I agree with RJ that Peralta has value as a bullpen arm against righties, but closers pitch the 9th no matter who is up, they don't get the luxury of facing only righties. Still, the uncertainty in TB gives him some opportunity. I still like Farnsworth to start the season in the role, with McGee taking it over as the season progresses.

 
Mike Petriello
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I remember you mentioning that, and it was intriguing. If you're just looking for raw save totals, he's fine - not saying he's undraftable or anything. He's just generally overrated because of the save stat.

 
Mike Petriello
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Completely agree with Marc's premise, as the Dodger lineup is weak and he is utterly useless against lefty. As a totally biases Dodger fan desperate for hope, I'll add that he did come back far too soon from a broken finger last year, and was lousy in June & July before heating up in August and September, so there's a possibility he's better in 2011 than he was in 2010. Still, how he's going 50-something picks above Colby Rasmus in most drafts is insane.

Mar 09, 2011 8:03 AM on My Beef With Andre
 
Mike Petriello
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If you were going to add a salary floor, it'd have to account for more than just MLB salary, and that's difficult. Take, for example, a team like the Royals, which has a bright future but absolutely no shot in 2011 and isn't spending much to try to change that. Should they really be forced to go drop $10m (or whatever it'd be) on the Bruce Chens and Garret Atkinses of the world just to get up to that floor? If I'm a Royals fan, I'd much rather that money be put into Latin American signing, or player development, or improved facilities, etc.

 
Mike Petriello
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Rotoman, appreciate the feedback. I would say that we do already do some of that - #2, #3, #5 and #7 often pop up in the weekly Value Picks articles, including somewhat in this piece. For some of the other things, I think those could be good ideas for individual pieces. I remember at the end of last season we did do articles on rookies that could be interesting for the upcoming season, and we'd do well to revisit that.

 
Mike Petriello
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I like the contrarian views, here. Rob, I wouldn't worry about the Value Picks changing; we found that to be successful last year and don't plan on losing that this year. However, rotoman, I like hearing opinions about what could be improved or made more useful. What about Value Picks don't you like? What would you prefer to see? I think that if there's staleness - and I assume this is because I've talked about several of these guys before - it's because of the time of year, because it's too early to see much change due to on-the-field play. As the spring progresses and the season starts, injuries and poor performances will start to mount and we'll have a lot of new names and situations to dissect.

 
Mike Petriello
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This was great. I was randomly, and for no particular reason, thinking about Adam Greenberg the other day, and had no idea he had a shot with the Mets this year.

Mar 01, 2011 9:37 AM on Adam Greenberg
 
Mike Petriello
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Jason, this is really great. Wish I'd thought of this myself... and mostly happy that my rankings mostly correspond with your research. Very cool.

 
Mike Petriello
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Last I heard, he hadn't even reported to camp yet due to visa issues, so he's already behind the curve. I could see him getting a look if Storen falters, but not to start the season.

 
Mike Petriello
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The simple fact is that Ozzie hasn't made the call yet, and no one knows for sure who it's going to be. If anyone tells you otherwise, they're being dishonest. Sale got more 9th inning usage last September after Jenks was lost, but Ozzie's recent comments indicate that Thornton may be in the lead. Unfortunately, that situation is a crapshoot until a decision is made, which does impact early drafts.

Feb 22, 2011 6:14 AM on Closer Rankings
 
Mike Petriello
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Not sure i follow your logic there - Soria has put up more saves than Papelbon in two of the last three seasons. Given that Soria also has stronger peripherals and far less internal competition, Soria > Papelbon seems like a pretty easy choice to me. For Nunez, he will indeed get the first crack at saves in Florida, as Michael Jong noted above. If anything, I think I may have slightly undersold Nunez by putting him so long, because he did have good peripherals last year. I still wouldn't count on him, though.

Feb 21, 2011 12:13 PM on Closer Rankings
 
Mike Petriello
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Great start, guys - very much look forward to this. Always like an article that teaches me something, and until today, I had no idea that a 'sesamoid' was a real thing.

Feb 21, 2011 8:06 AM on The Injury Beat Goes On
 
Mike Petriello
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Sgtvane, that's a great idea, and I'm happy to say that we already did that last year and will do so again this year. Every Thursday, the relief pitcher "Value Picks" piece will run, highlighting guys who are in exactly the situations you describe. I think it was pretty successful last year (I was able to identify out-of-nowhere types like John Axford and Alfredo Simon pretty early), and I look forward to doing it again. While I focus on closers, don't forget also that several of the other fantasy guys - Jong, Street, Baer, and McQuown - do the same for other positions as well.

Feb 21, 2011 7:45 AM on Closer Rankings
 
Mike Petriello
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Looks like Sale has been announced today as officially bullpen-bound. Step 1, done!

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks. I'll admit that it's really reading tea leaves with Ozzie as far as Sale goes, and it wouldn't totally surprise me if it does end up being Thorton. I'd say at this point I'm 90% certain Sale ends up in the bullpen, and 60-70% likelihood of him closing.

 
Mike Petriello
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I understand the point, but I think it's a bit unfair to doom Hanrahan because of a bad month or two earlier in his career. The difference in his performance in Washington (5.30 ERA, 1.643 WHIP, 9.2/5.0 K/BB) vs. Pittsburgh (3.03 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 12.2/4.1 K/BB) is striking. His velocity is increasing, and he's begun to work in his effective slider more and more. What his ranking was in the deal at the time doesn't mean as much to me as the performance since the deal, and he's shown all of the right indicators that he can make this a success. That said, I agree that he still needs to prove it on the field, and until he does I'm not considering him a top-flight guy. As for Lyon, I've never been a fan. I have no idea how he managed to put together that run last year, and his main selling point to me is that he's got little competition in Houston.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ross' PECOTA projection is in the writeup: 266 TAv (.259/.314/.431).

 
Mike Petriello
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I'm a Dodger fan, but even I can't say with any certainty that they've improved over the offseason. Yes, signing those starting pitchers was great, but they were the same guys they ended last year with (other than Garland). Their offense looks like it could be brutal; are you really excited about Barajas, Uribe, Gibbons, and Thames?

 
Mike Petriello
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I actually touched on that last week! I think Hanrahan's your man.

 
Mike Petriello
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Braden - thank you. Always appreciated.

 
Mike Petriello
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As a Dodger fan, I am worried about Mattingly's inexperience, tentatively willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but mostly resigned to the fact that the offense probably isn't good enough to make any manager look good.

Feb 11, 2011 9:28 AM on BP Odds & Ends
 
Mike Petriello
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That's a great question. There's obviously a lot of guesswork involved, but I have (possibly biased) faith in him. He'd been so good for so long that it's hard to write him off completely, and the Dodgers have been clear that he gets the first shot to regain the job. Not to totally defend him, because there's no question his loss of control was the main culprit here, but the Dodger defense really let him down more than once. Off the top of my head, at least three of those blown saves could have been avoided; besides for the Loney game referenced above, I remember one game (against the Phillies I believe) where he came in after Ronald Belisario faced five guys and got zero outs, and then got charged with a blown save after Casey Blake let a potential game-ending DP ball through his legs. As for a study about reliever pitch counts over an x-day span, I'm not aware of one but I'd certainly consider it interesting.

 
Mike Petriello
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I agree. I think him saying that was more a way to alleviate some of the pressure off his two young arms by not anointing either as "the guy" any earlier than absolutely needed.

 
Mike Petriello
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According to b-ref, attendance that day in September was a nearly unfathomable 6,947. Must not have had a hard time finding room for the camera gear.

 
Mike Petriello
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Plot hole! It's the "Von Steuben Day" Parade, which is traditionally held in September.

 
Mike Petriello
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He's in the mix, and I'll get into it deeper next week. He's so raw that it's hard to count on him just yet, though very talented. Don't forget Vicente Padilla, too.

 
Mike Petriello
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As a Dodger blogger, that's a topic which is near and dear to my heart, and I'll probably look at in more depth next week. The early word, however, is Broxton, though the leash will not be long.

 
Mike Petriello
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I think R.A's pretty close here, though I'd probably give Dotel more of a chance than Frasor.

 
Mike Petriello
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For relievers, with their small sample sizes, I do think luck always plays something of a role, but whether you think that in 2009 he was lucky good, or in 2010 he was unlucky bad, the peripheral stats show that he was more or less the same guy. I really do think the fact that he had rough outings sooner rather than later hurt his perception. What if he'd had the exact same year overall, but his lousy outings were in September rather than April and May? People would have seen a "1.50 ERA" (or whatever) all year before it ballooned, and he'd have been thought of better for months.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks for the comments. I've talked about each of them in recent weeks. ANGELS: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12591 I agree with you that I do think it'll likely be Downs to start the season, though I really like Jordan Walden there. ORIOLES: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12687 They paid Gregg the big money, so I expect him to close, but I do like Uehara there as well.

 
Mike Petriello
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I'm sure Rob will weigh in with more detailed thoughts as well, but I'd think that this decision really rests on who else you have at 3B. If you don't have a 3B beyond ARod, then keeping him and Gonzalez seems to be the only way to go. Even if you do have another 3B, unless it's Zimmerman or Longoria I'm still not sure I'd keep Howard over ARod. 3B is so much harder to fill than 1B, and if you've already got one of the best in Gonzalez you don't need to hurt yourself at 3B to keep Howard.

 
Mike Petriello
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For the sake of this article, it's probably not all that relevant because Chapman would still be in the pen regardless of which order those guys end up in, but yes, I think Bailey has a spot. He was very good after returning from injury last year - 59/19 K/BB, ERA and FIP under 4, in 10 starts between Aug-Oct.

 
Mike Petriello
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As a follow-up, I've just read that Morneau is about 10 days away from even starting baseball activities, so take that into consideration when making your choice.

 
Mike Petriello
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Concussions are always so tricky to dechiper, which is a shame because Morneau was having the best year of his year last year. All indications I've heard are that he's on track to be ready for Opening Day, though I'd hate to be without a good backup plan - you just can't count on anything being the same after a concussion until you've seen it happen. As for your choice, it's hard to say for sure without knowing the specifics of your league and roster. If all you'd have to do is trade a draft pick for Youkilis (assuming we're not talking first 2 rounds), that seems pretty reasonable to me.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks, skuddler. I've always considered him a bit underrated. Never heard that song, great link.

 
Mike Petriello
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Rad, looking forward to it.

 
Mike Petriello
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Good one. I still can't believe that Dusty is really going to let him sit in the pen, but it seems that way. I'll keep him in mind for next week.

 
Mike Petriello
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I have a sudden hankering to watch Mike Rowe get into disgusting trouble right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ha! It took me a second to figure out what that means, but excellent work. Easily my favorite comment of 2011.

 
Mike Petriello
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Not really disagreeing with you; I'm not a huge fan either. It's just interesting to see that a lot of Dodger fans want/expect him to grab that 2B job (partially on the strength of a good AFL campaign, though we know how little that matters) yet he can't even make the top 20 team prospects from you or John Sickels.

 
Mike Petriello
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Man, NO ONE likes Ivan DeJesus. Great work as always, KG.

 
Mike Petriello
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There's absolutely no earthly reason why the Dodgers should retain him. But as a Dodger fan, consider me very pessimistic. I think he'll be back, even though he shouldn't be.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ha. I wouldn't rule it out. Either way, Venters/Kimbrel could be an incredibly valuable and effective combo for Atlanta next year.

 
Mike Petriello
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Takahashi's a FA, I believe, so much depends on his next team. If he ends up back in NYC, K-Rod (if healthy) is still going to be the man. Kuo has a better shot, but Broxton and Jansen are in the mix. It'll be crowded there. Kuo's so good he might be valuable even without saves though.

 
Mike Petriello
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Such fortuitous timing! http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings100923 Far, far down in that Jayson Stark article from earlier today, it sounds as though Venters will still get the first crack.

 
Mike Petriello
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In recent days, it now sounds like Sale will indeed be a starter next year: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/5363/white-sox-still-think-of-sale-as-starter

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks for the question. The Oakland bullpen is pretty loaded; between Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, Jerry Blevins, Michael Wuertz, and Joey Devine if he ever makes it back, it's hard for anyone to break through. Still, talent makes its own opportunities. I've never been a big fan of Ross. I know he's still young, but even when he was striking a ton of guys out in AAA this year, he was still walking 4.6/9. He had that exact same walk rate in the bigs, just without the K's. Since he doesn't have overpowering heat, I'm not sure I see a lot there unless the control comes around. I like Rodriguez quite a bit more, if only because of the huge velocity (averaging 98.7 MPH so far). He's had control issues as well, but he's at least managed to keep it below 4, while still striking out more than a man per inning in the bigs.

 
Mike Petriello
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My money's on Venters. I did NL keeper options last week, and he was part of it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11952

 
Mike Petriello
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That's a great question. I haven't seen anything from the team on that, but my sense is he probably would at least start the season in the minors if that's the case. The Sox rotation is relatively set, and I'd assume they'd want to get him stretched out after being a reliever.

 
Mike Petriello
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I figure someone will ask about Tim Collins, so I'll address him here. I really like the guy, and it's hard to ignore the strikeout totals. I just think there's too much against him right now; he was traded twice, he didn't receive a September callup, doesn't really profile as a closer, and Joakim Soria is one of the best in the game. Of course, he's made his career right now on proving people wrong, so he's worth watching.

 
Mike Petriello
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They do not.

 
Mike Petriello
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This is probably my favorite comment I've received all year.

 
Mike Petriello
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He hasn't really shown anything in the bigs - 7 of the 12 batters he's faced so far this year have reached. I know he was good in AAA, and 12 batters isn't much of a sample size, but Brad Lidget & Ryan Madson are both under contract for next year too. I'm not sure I see a big role for Mathieson right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks for the question. I would say "future". Sale's been impressive, but he got the save opportunity mostly because Jenks had pitched three days in a row, and I can't imagine what kind of heartburn Ozzie got while watching a rookie walk 2 guys in the 9th. It's still Jenks this year, and Matt Thornton should be back soon too.

 
Mike Petriello
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Sure. Service time is measured in days, not games, so Posey accumlated 33 days heading into the 2010 season. You're basically asking the same questions many smart baseball people were, namely A) if you were going to call him up last year, why not play him? and B) if you started his clock last year, why not start the season with him this year? I haven't seen any good defense for the Giants keeping him down, and his performance this year validates that.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Service time is service time, no matter when it's accrued. You're correct that the minor league seasons are wrapping up, but Scranton will be in the playoffs, so that's some extra games there.

 
Mike Petriello
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I am! http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com, that's me. Thanks for the kind words.

 
Mike Petriello
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Hey, that's a great idea! Working on it.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ben. LOVE this.

Aug 23, 2010 1:55 PM on Welcome Back, Vin
 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks! Glad it's been useful.

 
Mike Petriello
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Will, in the Buck piece you mentioned that the Jays may try to sneak him through waivers while he's on the DL. Buster Olney mentioned yesterday that players on the DL can't be put through waivers. Which side is right?

Aug 06, 2010 9:39 AM on 28 Hours to Texarkana
 
Mike Petriello
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Bill nails it here. As a Dodger fan, I get the same argument when Broxton struggles, noting his high number of blown saves. Of course, many of those came between 2005-2008 when he was a setup man, and thus in the position to only blow saves, not attain them.

 
Mike Petriello
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Interesting that he only threw one "soap bubble" in the first 50 or so pitches, and then several of them closer to the end of the game.

 
Mike Petriello
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You might want to hold onto Putz... Jenks is lighting himself on fire right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks! It's sometimes tough to strike the right balance between "uh, Mariana Rivera is good" and "ooh, Pedro Feliciano lucked into a save!" but it's enjoyable, and I'm glad people find value in it. Personally, it's helped me too: I'm crushing both of my leagues in saves right now thanks to the research.

 
Mike Petriello
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I'm not sure that's really true, though. He was the full-time closer last September, and he saved 6, blew 1, and had a 14/2 K/BB mark. Seems fine by me.

 
Mike Petriello
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All good points. Does seem pretty silly that Madson got a "blown save" for a scoreless 8th and one single in the 9th, though. Just another reason why some stats aren't worth the time it takes to read them.

 
Mike Petriello
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Sounds like Clippard and Burnett will get chances as well, so it may be more of a committee type. I still think Storen is the one to own.

 
Mike Petriello
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Capps to the Twins! I'm taking this one as a feather in my cap.

 
Mike Petriello
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I'm starting to wish I'd gone with my first instinct and included Michael Wuertz, since Andrew Bailey is still unavailable and is being seen by Texas doctors tonight.

 
Mike Petriello
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I've always wondered, did Nolan Ryan have some sort of surgery to fix his elbow, knowing that his career was over? Or is he still walking around with a bum elbow today?

 
Mike Petriello
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I think I've mentioned a few times that both Hanrahan and Meek will be considered, regardless of who is "officially" in the Value Picks list or not. I've been leaning towards Meek because he's an "All Star" with a low ERA, and while those things may not mean much to you or I, that doesn't mean they don't have an impact in the real world.

 
Mike Petriello
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Thanks for the nice feedback on the article. You're right, of course, about the daily tracker, though I think that'd depend on league settings. Not every league requires a waiver period, and for those who can pick guys up immediately and insert them before the start of the day's games (especially on days where the first game isn't until 7pm EST) that could give them enough time to grab a guy, effectively having a rotating last spot.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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You know, that's a very interesting thought. There's always a lot of random saves being picked up by various middle relievers based on the regular closer needing a rest. I'd love to implement something like that.

 
Mike Petriello
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Depends on what you can get for him. I don't think he's going to lose his job this year, so he's not a dump-now candidate.

 
Mike Petriello
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Now with Wood hitting the DL, DEFINITELY get Perez!

 
Mike Petriello
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That's a great question. I think I'd have to go with Madson and Perez. They each have higher K/9 rates than League does this season, but almost as important I think they have easier paths to the 9th inning. Madson has only Lidge in front of him, and we all know that Lidge isn't exactly a huge roadblock right now. In Cleveland, I think Wood is a sure bet to be traded, and even if he doesn't Perez probably gets his chances down the stretch. While I think Aardsma probably does get moved in Seattle, I think it's less of a sure thing than in CLE and PHI.

 
Mike Petriello
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"Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)"

 
Mike Petriello
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Sadly, Choi was released from the Dodgers AAA team in the last week or so.

Jul 09, 2010 9:51 AM on Can't Get No Relief?
 
Mike Petriello
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I had that thought at first too - I did have Hernandez on this list for a week. But I think if they were going to do that, they'd be giving him chances now, before Gonzalez got back.

 
Mike Petriello
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Tooting my own horn: Lidge and Aardsma each had horrible nights tonight.

 
Mike Petriello
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Frank "Coonelly", I meant, of course.

 
Mike Petriello
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Perhaps. As a Dodger fan, most of my memories of Hanrahan are about him flaming out of the system, but his high K rate (12.6/9) this year is very nice. Frank Cooney made a point to mention in a chat this week that he thinks that both Meek and Hanrahan have closer stuff, so it wouldn't be totally surprising to see them each get chances. I just lean towards Meek because he's leading in the "traditional" sense - lower ERA, made the All-Star game. We all agree that's not always the right thing to base a choice on, of course, but my feeling is that they'll be enough for Meek to get the first crack.

 
Mike Petriello
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The esteemed Mr. Jong is the positional expert here, but I can't help but mention: there's 172 hitters with enough PA to qualify for the batting title. Molina's OPS ranks 170th, above only two guys who have already lost their jobs (Pedro Feliz and Gordon Beckham). Since fantasy leagues don't care about how good his throwing arm is or what the genetics of his family may be, I can't think of any reason I'd prefer Molina to Jaso right now.

 
Mike Petriello
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Here's a question, and I'm referring to Charlie Haeger here, who was out of options, passed through waivers unclaimed, and was outrighted to AAA. If the Dodgers recall him later in the season, and then wish to send him back to AAA again, he doesn't need to pass through waivers for a second time, right?

Jul 01, 2010 5:32 PM on Optional Waivers
 
Mike Petriello
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Love this, David. Always interesting to read about the minor league life, but I think recently it's been more from guys who've been on the farm for years. This perspective from a brand-new face is a different view.

 
Mike Petriello
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I didn't think much of him at first, but you're not wrong - everyone else in the Arizona bullpen is AWFUL. The 6 saves in the minors don't impress me all that much, but the 1.26 ERA this year and 10.0 K/9 career minor league rate do. I still think it's too soon to say "he's the guy"; he's pitched in just three big league games. He's also not allowed a baserunner yet, so with the situation in Arizona as dire as it is, he's definitely a name to watch.

 
Mike Petriello
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It depends on who you'd be dropping him for. Corpas' time is short as the Rockies' closer, for sure, especially now that Street is off the DL and back into games, so I don't think it's worth the effort to drop Corpas for Matt Belisle or anyone else in the Colorado pen. Corpas probably gets one or two more shots, but it really doesn't matter all that much since it'll be Street's job soon enough. So keep Corpas for now, if you're talking about him vs. his teammates. But if there's someone out there on another team with a better/longer opportunity, then sure, I'd probably cut Corpas or him. Thanks for the question.

 
Mike Petriello
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I knew he was doing well, but I don't think I realized just how well until your comment spurred me to check him out. 18 strikeouts in just 10 innings? That's pretty tasty. And as you mentioned, he's racked up 5 holds (and 2 saves) in his last 7 games. So if you specifically need holds and you have the space, sure, he could be a nice option. That said, I'm not sure I see it keeping up over the long haul. That K rate seems completely unsustainable (career, he's at less than a K per inning) and his walk rate has always been an issue. Plus, Brian Wilson seems pretty secure in San Francisco.

 
Mike Petriello
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Ah, the Chief was always one of my favorites. Remember when he was basically the ONLY National worth owning in that first year or two? It's been a long road back for him, but I think he needs to prove himself some more. He's pitched just ten games in the last three seasons, and just once in the last week. I think throwing him into the closer role right now is probably asking too much.

 
Mike Petriello
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That was to Michael, by the way. Silly BP commenting system won't let me edit.

 
Mike Petriello
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It's a good question, and I don't know the exact percentage. Every league I'm in does, so it's something I do focus on. Still, guys like Rodney aren't recommended only for getting holds, but because they're in a position that he may get some save chances as well behind a weak incumbent. The holds are a nice bonus for grabbing him early.

 
Mike Petriello
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I was considering Aaron Heilman this week, and now I wish I did: Chad Qualls gave up 4 runs in 0.1 innings today.

 
Mike Petriello
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Probably. I'm not a huge fan of Lyon, but the Astros didn't pay him all that money to not be the #2 option. Besides, he has actually done decently this season; his 1.092 WXRL is more than double the next best Astro, Chris Sampson.

 
Mike Petriello
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I'm all about updates today: not a huge surprise, but Ken Macha confirmed that Trevor Hoffman isn't getting save opportunities any time soon. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/95479074.html What next for Trevor Hoffman? Brewers manager Ken Macha knew the question was coming. That didn't mean he had an answer, however. After Hoffman's latest setback Tuesday night, the only sure thing was that his next outing would not signal a return to the closer's role. "Do you want me to get tarred and feathered?" Macha said.

 
Mike Petriello
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As did Matt Capps, in the same game. Ha!

 
Mike Petriello
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For what it's worth, Matt Lindstrom blew another save today. That's three in the last week. Something to keep an eye on in Houston...

 
Mike Petriello
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I do agree with you that it's not to the point that he's lost his job - he will get some more chances. What worries me though is that, even if what you're saying is totally accurate, Cito Gaston has shown no inclination to be the kind of manager to manage a reliever's workload like that. It's especially frustrating considering that he does have some pretty good fill-in options like Downs, Frasor, and Camp to avoid overworking Gregg.

 
Mike Petriello
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That's an interesting point, though I do think that the huge divergence in his April vs June is more that he just got onto a well-timed hot streak to start the year before reverting to the guy we'd seen with the Cubs and Marlins.

 
Mike Petriello
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Perhaps. Santos has been a really nice surprise. Making him a closer is a pretty hefty responsibility to throw on a guy who's just barely converted to the mound. I think for now, he'll still play matchups with Jenks and Thornton.

 
Mike Petriello
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Boras would never allow it. That'd be buying out like 6 free agent years, and if Harper's anywhere near as good as people think he'll be, those 6 years could be worth $150 million.

 
Mike Petriello
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Villanueva picked up his first save last night, so it does look like he's the man.

 
Mike Petriello
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I still think they want to make Feliz a starter in the long run, but for now there's no question he's the man, because he's been that good. Francisco's only received one save opportunity this month; meanwhile Feliz has converted 7 of 8. It's Feliz' gig right now, and will be barring injury.

 
Mike Petriello
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Yet if I hadn't included Thornton, you realize that I'd get twice as many comments wondering where he was, right? Plenty of people play in leagues where he was available when I wrote this.

 
Mike Petriello
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Yeah, I've made that mistake constantly. At least I got it right in the grid, though. Fixed now.

 
Mike Petriello
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I didn't say he is, yet. Manuel said, earlier this week, that Lidge "isn't ready to close yet." I still expect that if Lidge is healthy & effective, he'll be the guy - but in the last year he's been neither of those things. With Madson out, Baez horrible, and Contreras shining, Contreras might get more opportunities than you think. And if Lidge blows up again, Contreras really may get a shot.

 
Mike Petriello
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As I said last week, I like him as somewhat of a "utility reliever", since he racked up the holds last year (and holds are always a neglected category in fantasy baseball), and he started off this year vulturing a few wins and a save as well. He's not a top priority pickup, but if you play in a deep league as I do, he could be helpful.

 
Mike Petriello
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Luckily for you, I've got a name or two in mind... see you Thursday!

 
Mike Petriello
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Certainly. But unless he totally implodes, a reliever is less likely to hurt your rate stats (like ERA and WHIP) because he pitches so few innings, compared to a starter. Yet he could pick up saves quite easily, and if you're struggling in that department he's not a bad short term fix.

Apr 15, 2010 11:15 AM on Hot Spots: Relief
 
Mike Petriello
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I hear you, and that's usually what my plan is. (In fact, one pitcher I wanted to discuss is owned in just 0.3% of ESPN leagues). But this week had a lot of big news - two closer injuries, two closer demotions - and if I ignored those, I'd get people asking me why I didn't touch on the important happenings.

Apr 15, 2010 7:52 AM on Hot Spots: Relief
 
Mike Petriello
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Unfortunately, the relief pitcher article is scheduled for Thursday morning every week. Besides, judging by the low numbers in which fantasy owners have picked up these guys, I'd say this could still help plenty of people.

Apr 15, 2010 6:25 AM on Hot Spots: Relief
 
Mike Petriello
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No problem. Thanks for coming back to reference the BTB post.

 
Mike Petriello
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It's certainly not enough of a reason on it's own, I'll grant you. But taken in combination with the other reasons, it definitely doesn't help.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I'll go with Gregerson, then.

 
Mike Petriello
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I chose the 87 for the Dodgers in Heater, and I think that if anything it's too LOW - despite the two gaming sites thinking otherwise. Obviously, the PR around the team this offseason has been HORRIBLE, but this is still a very good team coming off a 95-win year. To expect them to be 11 games worse, as the third column says, simply because they don't have Randy Wolf (who won't repeat his 2009) or Orlando Hudson (who was terrible in the 2nd half) is silly, especially when you consider you get more Manny/less Pierre, and that guys like Kershaw and Kemp are likely to keep improving.

Feb 26, 2010 4:14 PM on Sweet Relief
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Seems like a bright guy, but you have to chuckle at a top-5 pick saying "It’s almost hard to catch them, so I can’t imagine trying to hit these guys", and even that's only about the Pirates.

Feb 23, 2010 9:48 AM on June 9-10, 2002
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I don't follow the whole Branyan/Datz story, what's that about?

Feb 22, 2010 5:34 PM on Junior Circuit Jumbling
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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It's amazing the specifics and details a man of his age remembers about these games from 50 years ago. Loving the interviews with the old-time guys, David. More of those please.

Feb 07, 2010 10:48 AM on Elroy Face
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
Comment rating: 1

I've never heard of Johnny Goryl before this morning, but man would I like to buy him dinner and let him tell me baseball stories for hours on end.

Feb 06, 2010 11:21 AM on Johnny Goryl
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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As a Dodger fan, I have a really hard time with a system that puts Kevin Malone as the best of anything.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Couldn't agree more. Also, Cameron's 37 and he'll be playing for his rookie ball hitting coach. I kind of like that.

Dec 16, 2009 1:21 PM on Through Six Weeks
 
Mike Petriello
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Dodgers - Juan Pierre, not Jose. Also, where have you heard they want another 3B? First I've seen of that. Shouldn't 2B be a bigger hole?

 
Mike Petriello
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Joe, re: Castro's presence. If he's not there, and Furcal gets hurt, who's the Dodger SS? Belliard? Loretta?

Oct 15, 2009 4:20 PM on The NLCS
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
Comment rating: 4

Joe, I've always been firmly in agreement on the "11 pitchers is best" theory, and I remain so here. However, I can't help but wonder if the Dodgers represent an exception this year. They've had a ton of starting pitching issues and have a lot of good relievers, while on the other side of the ball they have a solid 8 in their starting lineup who don't get platooned and are rarely hit for. That being the case, wouldn't a 12th pitcher along the lines of Scott Elbert or Guillermo Mota be more valuable to them than the corpse of Mark Loretta?

Oct 05, 2009 5:12 PM on Madness
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Geez, how old is that Kershaw picture? He was 54 when he came up, he's 22 now. And 55 is Martin.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Couldn't agree more, not that the idea that Manny Ramirez is a better hitter than Juan Pierre is really something anyone could argue with. It just blows my mind, the number of stories I've read about how great Juan Pierre was during Manny's absence, with people completely ignoring that he was fantastic for three weeks and then worse than ever for the last four.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Unrelated to the main topic here, but I was pretty surprised to see that Knight thinks Bernie Williams is a "likely" HOFer, while Todd Helton isn't.

Jun 07, 2009 8:45 PM on The Summer of 1992
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I think you mean Chad Tracy, not Andy, no?

 
Mike Petriello
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Team: LA Dodgers Owner: Frank McCourt School: Georgetown Why: Commercial real estate developer, in particularly Boston parking lots. Good news: Failed in buying the Red Sox, because he would have ditched Fenway for a new park on the waterfront. Bad news: Succeeded in buying the Dodgers, even though he\'s one of the more highly leveraged owners in the game in terms of cash flow. Worse news: His wife, thanks to her \"kids or free agents!\" diatribe.

Jan 04, 2009 8:42 AM on Brett Tomko
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Why would Wilson be a good fit for LA? he\'s mediocre, overpaid, lousy career at Dodger Stadium, ang the Pirates want good players for him. No thanks.

Dec 08, 2008 7:19 AM on Venting
 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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Jay, Pierre doesn\'t have $38.5 million remaining. It\'s 28.5 - I assume that\'s a typo, but it makes a big difference.

 
Mike Petriello
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Not really. I just had read your Kent update as though you hadn\'t seen he\'d already played the field.

Sep 26, 2008 4:56 PM on Back to the Way It Was
 
Mike Petriello
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Will, Furcal and Kent both started in the field last night, and made it through 3 innings with no noticable issues before they were lifted to large ovations.

Sep 26, 2008 10:00 AM on Back to the Way It Was
 
Mike Petriello
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Couldn\'t disagree more about the Dodgers taking Hu over Berroa. That\'s probably what I\'d do, but Berroa\'s actually been excellent over the last month (i KNOW!) and Torre won\'t even put in Hu at the end of games any more.

Sep 25, 2008 9:58 AM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
Mike Petriello
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Felipe and Luis Lopez for the 2005 Reds... http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN200506190.shtml

Sep 18, 2008 9:53 AM on Down to the Wire
 
Mike Petriello
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Jack and Enrique Wilson on the 2001 Pirates, too! http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN200104040.shtml

Sep 18, 2008 9:44 AM on Down to the Wire
 
Mike Petriello
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Michael Young and Eric Young played together on the 2004 Texas Rangers. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX200407290.shtml

Sep 18, 2008 9:22 AM on Down to the Wire
 
Mike Petriello
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Will, the \"uncomfortableness\" is due to a twinge in his left hamstring, according to what I\'ve read, not chemistry.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
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I\'d have to go with Tatis as well for comeback player, but don\'t forget Chan Ho Park. He hasn\'t been healthy/effective in seven years, and now he\'s been a crucial part of the Dodgers\' pen. An d yeah, I\'m aware of the signifigance of mentioning Tatis and Park in the same note.

 
Mike Petriello
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Re: Mark Hendrickson being better as a reliever, as a Dodgers fan, we\'ve been saying that for two years. In fact, I said I really wished the Dodgers would re-sign him as a reliever just last year: http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2007/12/15/nuts-and-gum-together-at-last/ As for the Pierre quote, I assume it had to have been made during the awful losing streak the Dodgers just went through when they couldn\'t hit a thing. But really, who are you going to bench for him? Kemp? Ethier? Manny? Nooo thanks.

 
Mike Petriello
(32369)
Comment rating: 1

Will, re: Andruw Jones. While he is having soreness in his knees, it\'s been kind of an open secret around Dodgerville that he was sent down on a \"rehab\" less because he was hurt and more to get him off of the active roster. That\'s why he was recalled as soon as rosters expanded, though I don\'t expect him to play at all.

Sep 02, 2008 4:32 PM on Tweaks