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blaseta
15 comments | 1 total rating | 0.07 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/31573
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

I can see your point for infielders, but as an outfielder myself I no longer wear a cup. There is virtually no risk for an outfielder, and the comfort tradeoff is certainly worth it in my experience.

 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

Wow, Pujols only 29 and already 3rd on the JAWS 1B list and well above the average HOF standard. Add another 10 WARP to his career for this season (conservative estimate) and a little bit of a boost to his peak when that hits the books and he may very well catch Bagwell by the time he's 30.

Aug 13, 2009 10:13 AM on How is the Air Up There?
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 2

Saying that "the Jays probably got a good value based on what they actually paid Rios for a year and half" ignores an important part of the equation. A year and a half ago the Jays had a good asset. At the very least that asset probably would have gained them two draft picks, maybe even an impact player back in a trade (does anybody remember the Rios for Cain rumors? Even if untrue this gives a proxy for what Rios' value was viewed as). Instead they now have nothing. Also, the time value of money argument is missing out on the fact that by backloading the contract you are severly limiting your possibilities for the future. If Rios' contract was more evenly spread surely he could have netted more than nothing. While flawed, Rios is certainly better than a lot of the outfielders being traded out there (Hairston, Hinske, Guiterrez (probably), Milledge) for something. JP's backloading basically destroyed the trade value of Rios. In isolation I suppose you could argue that this mistake showed an optimism in the development of a budding player that didn't pay off. However, given JP's track record this is another mistake in a long line that leaves me wondering how it is possible that he is still around to make them.

Aug 11, 2009 12:47 PM on Blame it on Rios?
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

"but even a casual analysis can reveal thing." As long as by things you mean that the analysis can reveal that one player had a late career home run spike that while abnormal when compared to the typical aging curve, is in no ways definitive proof of anything. Bonds hitting a lot of home runs is no way more proof that steriods "work" than Neifi Perez not hitting a lot of home runs is proof that steriods "don't work". jayman4 is right about one thing, the incentives are there to pursue an edge. I think where the real culpibility lies is with the rulemakers that allowed these incentives to remain so strong for such a long time. While in an ideal world you may hope that the citizens of a country would abstain from theft, rape, and murder on their own accord, what would any of us think about a government that had no effective punishment or deterrent for these behaviours in its laws? (I am not comparing taking PEDs to theft, rape, or murder in magnitude, just in directionality) The reason you go to jail for robbing a bank is the same as the reason that players aren't expect to call balls and strikes on themselves, you cannot expect someone to act against their best interest. You must influence the incentives behind actions not criticize the incentivized for pursuing the path of greatest reward.

May 08, 2009 9:10 AM on Manny's Return
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

That may be true but, if I'm not mistaken, there are plenty of defensive metrics out there that account for exactly this type of variation. I believe Steven's point is that this type of analysis is more likely to be widely accepted by the "saber-haters" out there, given that it is simple to explain and uses a traditional stat (batting average). More importantly, I think the best way to look at any defensive metric is as one piece of the puzzle. I don't think there is any metric out there that can reliably capture exactly how good a player's defense is or isn't, but if you look at the entire range of metrics available, where they all (or most) agree it is pretty clear that therein lies the answer. Chalk this analysis up as another confirming that Jeter is no wiz with the glove.

Apr 14, 2009 10:53 AM on V for Vendetta
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: -1

I wonder, and I could be way off as I didn't go back to look at the depth charts, if the distribution of a teams slash stats would make a difference. I'm not talking lineup position necessarily (i.e. having OBP guys higher in the order leads to more runs), I'm talking about the spread amongst players. For example, say Team A and Team B had the same team OBP, if Team A had a mix of high OBP guys and low OBP guys, while Team B had more of an even spread of medium OBP guys, would one of the teams be expected to score more runs than the other based on that?

Apr 02, 2009 3:51 PM on NL Projected Standings
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

From Calgary (Canada): Peter\'s Drive Inn (Just the burgers, their fries are terrible, although their milkshakes are pretty good too) Wild Rose Wrasberry Ale (Local micro-brewery)

Jan 13, 2009 8:42 AM on July 31-August 5, 2001
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

If I had to guess I\'d say Cashman is thinking that Detroit would laugh in his face if he offered Melky for Granderson. The fact that Detroit is \"approachable on Granderson\" is news to me, but even assuming that you are right, I can\'t imagine that they wouldn\'t be looking for a very big return. That isn\'t to say that I think Cameron is the answer; given what it took for the Mariners to get Guiterrez I think they should have pursued that possibility. Or David DeJesus. Or Derek Jeter (if only...). But Granderson would take a lot more than I think the Yankees have to give.

Dec 11, 2008 4:28 PM on July 16-21, 2001
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

I agree he is worth more than that, but just the fact that the Royals went after Jacobs proves that the Royals don\'t value him anywhere near what he\'s worth. I don\'t see any place on the Royals for him, as sad as that is...

Nov 05, 2008 12:19 PM on July 3-4, 2001
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: -1

Yankees: Trade bullpen arm or ML for Billy Butler. Move Jeter to CF, A-Rod to SS. Sign Tex, use Betimit as 3B.

Nov 05, 2008 10:49 AM on July 3-4, 2001
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: -1

Yeah, you\'re right they would have been better off with one of the best 3 hitters in the game. Too bad they never had him this year; whatever reasons you asign to the disparity between Manny\'s performance in Boston versus his performance in LA, there is absolutely no way anybody could have ever expected the Manny that showed up this playoffs to have shown up regardless of where he was playing or how happy he was. As for Boston\'s problems, I find it funny that apparently no teams where interested in a certain slugger with bad knees that has a pile of circumstantial evidence suggesting that he has taken performance enhancing drugs. Compare that to the perception of Ortiz. He cannot even do a somewhat decent job in the field (Bonds can). His career arc is at least as suspicious as Bonds, if not moreso (sudden power boost late in his career after failing in Minnesota, sudden lose of power when drug testing introduced). Interesting what a difference a good personality can make, isn\'t it?

 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

Brewers trade Prince Fielder and Bill Hall to the Mariners to Rowland-Smith, Adrian Beltre, and Wladimir Balentien

Sep 25, 2008 1:20 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

I\'m gonna be an idiot and repost mine because I\'m really interested in what Will\'s guys say and he didn\'t reply to my original (maybe too long) Brewers trade Prince Fielder to the Blue Jays for Alex Rios and Marco Scutaro

Sep 25, 2008 1:09 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 0

Keep it simple: Matt Cain for Adrian Gonzalez

Sep 25, 2008 12:38 PM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs
 
blaseta
(31573)
Comment rating: 2

Brewers trade Prince Fielder to the Blue Jays for Alex Rios and Joe Inglett (or Marco Scutaro). Brewers gain defense by moving Braun to first and adding Rios to the outfield as well as getting a utility infielder that can play a little or a lot without hurting you too much if Weeks continues to disappoint or has more injury issues; Jays get much needed power boost in middle of lineup while leaving room in the next year\'s outfield for both Lind and Snider.

Sep 25, 2008 10:34 AM on Tune-ups and Shut-downs