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I largely agree, but I'm looking forward to the day when we have better data on the quality of contact that drives BABIP. That's why Kershaw's typical BABIP is unusually low, and I suspect it's part of his problem in the last few postseason starts v. the Cards.
Also Joc Pederson - is he considered a CF?
I get the feeling this redraft is more about absolute value rather than team needs, right? That the Astro's have Castro doesn't really factor in here. That said, I still think Correa and Buxton look like the top two talents to me.
Also Melky Cabrera, considering his improved health this year.
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How about the Piazza - Sheffield trade? I don't remember the other parts but both of those guys are HOF level players in their primes.
I'm a lifelong Dodger fan, but I love baseball and that was a beautiful performance. I'll give it a 7. I would say I appreciate it, but I'm not all that excited by it. I'm not at all bitter about it, maybe because the Dodgers are in 1st place.
I have to assume the scouting reports are disappointing on Colon.
I'm a Dodger fan and don't want McCourt to remain involved in any way, but why do you think this is something the commissioners office can address? The parking lots were separated into a separate entity a while back, and if it needed MLB approval, it was granted at the time. I know that the bankruptcy court has already ruled on this issue and McCourt can keep the lots. I don't know what the real value of the property is - the development value if the team moves to a downtown stadium is probably in excess of the $500M you're talking about.
I'm sure the bidders all prefer to take the lots, but you have to hand it to McCourt. He's went all in in the divorce/bankruptcy proceedings and he's going to walk away a with a lot of dough. He put nothing down to buy the team, he's taken 9 figures worth of cash out already and could walk away with the parking lots or $500M in cash.It was a very sweet deal for him.
My understanding is that the 1/30 share of MLB Advanced Media plus the 1/30 share of the national TV rights are around $300M, and possibly more when you account for future growth. Baseball team value is artificially suppressed by the fact that so many buyers are excluded from bidding. The Dodgers bankruptcy sale is an excellent test case to reveal market value because buyers can't be excluded arbitrarily. I won't be surprised to see a final price of close to $2B if all the real estate is included. Of course the Dodgers brand + market + real estate are unique, and they should command a high premium.
I'm also glad not to see Kemp on here. Last year was likely the best of his career, but that would be likely even if he ends up with a HOF career.
Felix still qualifies
It kills me to see how many high school guys the Dodgers have drafted and failed to sign since Logan White has been there. This system could be so much better if they'd just allocated the resources to sign the guys their scouts find. Instead they waste money on aging replacement level vets for the major league squad.
What about Kemp and Kershaw? Kemp just posted a 10 WAR season and Kershaw is the reigning Cy Young winner. Kemp didn't have the prospect status of of some of the other guys mentioned but he did post a .900 OPS in 300 MLB PA as a 22 year old.
I'm a lifelong Dodger fan, and I don't share your hopes about O'Malley. You have to review the period before he sold the team and remember that the game had really passed him by 20 years ago. There's no reason to think he's equipped to be an owner today. Mark Cuban or the Magic Johnson group are the best case scenarios for Dodger fans.
Actually, I bet the strongest single factor in how guys are perceived is clubhouse rumor and stuff beat writers have heard that they then repeat but don't publish (because the evidence is too weak to meet journo standards) .
Also, Larkin benefits from the "injury prone" bias. It seems that certain guys, like Vlad, Griffey Jr., Larkin, are perceived as guys who's bodies broke down in a "normal" way. Again, this is an unanalyzed impression and doesn't really rise to the level of evidence, but I can't see why else Vlad and Griffey are seen as clean.
There are other things besides size and position that might make us suspect some players more than others. I have the impression (possibly wrong) that Latin American players used PEDs at a higher than average rate. That could have something to do with easier availability in their home countries, or a broader acceptance for use, culturally - not really sure but I have that perception. Not sure if that rises to the level of evidence either.
Also, considering Bagwell v. Larkin, I tend to suspect Bagwell more because he played with Caminiti, and I have the suspicion (again, not really evidence) that teammates influenced one another in PED use - that there were certain teams with a culture of use.
All that is to address the "gut feeling" question posed by Neyer. I don't really care that players used and I tend to assume that many current players still use PEDs. I also believe it's widespread in every competitive sport.
Apparently Matt Moore can't pitch under pressure.
As long as We're on the Dodgers, that Andruw Jones contract was pretty sweet, too.
Speaking of slow promotion, what is Matt Moore still working on? He's been incredibly dominant - any chance he gets moved up to the big league pen before September?
I wouldn't say Gordon failed during this audition. He was never meant to stay as a backup once Furcal was off the dl, and he certainly showed flashes of brilliance in the field and on the bases.
I know the Dodgers have issues, but have you confirmed with anyone from their camp that they're looking to go cheap with their pick? The same was thought last year and they spent the dough anyway. I'm curious as to what the team is saying about their intentions this year.
I thought Harper might take a few more lumps than this in full season ball. How does his timetable compare to some of the Latin guys that came up young, like Cabrera and Andruw Jones?
Nothing on the Taillon - Harper matchup?
A's over Rangers? That's a surprise.
I agree - they also retained Kuroda on a team friendly contract. The moves they made to shore up the depth and quality of the pitching staff at least offsets the lack of moves on the offensive side.
Joe, your thoughts mirror mine exactly. I'm a lifelong Dodger fan but I still loved watching Bonds play - he was the most dominant athlete I've ever seen play in any major sport. I've been blessed to watch several great players on my teams and others - Pedro, Maddux, Piazza, Fernando - but none riveted me like Bonds. It was incredibly frustrating to see him frozen out the last few years.
This turned me into fans of both these guys.
I thought Kelly Jansen might squeak in.
No comments on the Andre Ethier situation and the splint suggested to Conte by Gary Vitti? Wondering if this is something used in baseball previously.
White is one of the things that makes me very happy as a Dodger fan. I very much appreciate this whole series of interviews.
If AJ Ellis is the "defensive" backup catcher on the Dodgers' roster, one wonders why Ausmus was resigned in the first place. Most of us wondered about that last year as well.
Wow. That's pretty embarrassing, especially since I'm Dodger fan that watches or listens to almost every single game. After a visit to Baseball Reference my memory is properly refreshed.
He didn't play much SS with the Dodgers, if any. I believe he mostly played 3rd and 1st.
I'm starting to think Elbert is getting a bit underrated. I think his injury concerns have been overplayed and he's already a valuable asset in the big league pen.
I'm surprised by Bruce being behind Chapman, let alone Bailey.
The Reds young core is looking better than I expected.
I'm surprised that Dan Quisenberry wasn't one of the top relievers, or that he's behind Jones.
I guess Colome was the surpise pitching prospect you've alluded to?
I think we drafted the same team.
He's only 17. He'll still be a young in 5 years.
I'm surprised that Kemp was behind Adam Jones and that Kershaw is behind Hanson and Porcello. Then again, I'm a homer.
Ynoa could be 5 years away from the majors even if he ends up being a star. He's too far away to expect a huge impact in the next decade.
whoops, my correction was wrong, but I'm a Dodger fan so I'm biased.
The 1977-78 Dodgers were the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants.
The thing is, Blanton was getting frustrated at not getting calls that were "balls" according to pitch trax. It would be interesting for someone to crunch the data. I'm certainly not objective enough to trust my memory of the action but it would be instructive to know for sure.
According to the screengrab the count should have been 1-3 at that point.
I'm a Dodger fan so I'm sure I'm biased, but the balls and strike calls last night were some of the worst I've seen, and I think they were overwhelmingly weighted against the Dodgers. I checked Pitch FX and the data is identical to the TBS box, so you can use the two interchangeably. I'd like to see someone do a pitch FX analysis of the calls and quantify the effect of inconsistent strike calls. Randy Wolf was horribly sqeezed in the early innings, and Blanton got every call at the margins of the low zone over the same period. Also, Manny Ramirez had some questionable strike calls off the inside edge of the plate. It was a great, classic game and I hate that the umpiring sticks in my mind after so many memorable plays on the field.
As much as I applaud Joe for pulling Wolf in the 4th, I would have been happy to see him let Thome bat for him in the bottom of the 3rd with the bases loaded and 2 out. He clearly had bad command last night (and in his last start too - hope it isn't a sign of things to come), and they could have easily gotten equal or better performance from Garland and Troncoso, who didn't make it into the game yesterday.
You don't think Jonathan Broxton is in that top tier of closers? I think the only reason I'd like Torre to use him more flexibly is that the Dodger bullpen is so deep with great arms that should be better deployed situationally.
The Dodgers' front office does pretty well here, despite the fact that they're regularly lambasted here and by stat minded Dodger fans everywhere (me included). I wonder if this is a short term phenomenon based on the very valuable draft and development run that coincided with the first few years of Logan White's tenure as scouting director or if they're just better than is often presumed.
At the end of the 1988 season two friends and I drove down to the Murph to see Orel Hershiser pitch. He was 10 innings away from breaking Drysdale's scoreless inning record in what was his last start of the year. We actually joked amongst ourselves that he might actually break the record as the inept Dodger offense and the absolute dominant groove Hershiser was in might lead to a scoreless tie after 9. Of course, that's exactly what happened, and he broke the record with a scoreless 10th in a mostly empty stadium. Drysdale was a Dodger announcer and he came on to the field after the 10th to congratulate Hershiser as the game was stopped to commemorate the moment. That the Dodgers went on to lose in extra innings didn't matter.
Just to counter all the positive feedback, I read the first few entries and found them so boring that I quit. I'm glad so many people enjoy them but not my cup of tea.
Thanks for the Martin update. His numbers look very similar to Kershaw's numbers from Great Lakes a few years ago. Is there a chance he has the same time of profile at the end of teh year or are do the scouting reports keep him down a notch?
Also, I'm curious about what scouts are saying about Withrow in the Cal league. His numbers are solid at least.
Exactly - HCG is prescribed to boost sperm counts in men. It can also be prescribed to boost sex drive. It's the hormone produced in the pituitary that stimulates the testes to produce sperm and testosterone.
I'm looking forward to hearing your take on Chris Withrow. He's been very impressive in the early going back from injury and throwing in an tough environment.
"Flu-like" symptoms? After the All Star game last year, this sounds more than a little loaded. Are there rumblings that Lincecum is drinking too much? I know that those rumors followed Russell Martin last year and he's as much as admitted it this spring by saying that he's changed his lifestyle because it was affecting his play last year.
I'm surprised Scott Elbert got no mention. I suppose he'll lose his prospect eligibility this year, but I would think that he would be trade bait at least if the Dodgers are fishing for some rotation help at the break.
I'm surprised you'd say that the Dodgers have no pitchers with front of the rotation potential right after saying that Martin was perhaps the top high school arm in the draft. He at least has that potential, right? Speaking of potential, is Withrow healthy this spring and what do you see out of him this year?
I\'m not sure that they couldn\'t have found a roster spot for him last year - he was a rule pick.
Wesley Wright - I wonder how many young players the Dodgers squandered over the past 12 months that will end up in other teams\' top 10 under 25? Wright, Santana, Meloan, LaRoche, Morris, Watt, Perez. I\'m probably forgetting some. Aside from the Manny trade, I\'m not sure that it was worth losing any of those guys.
Werth kills lefties, but Kuo struck him out on 3 straight fastballs down the pipe. When he\'s on, nobody hits him. If he could stay healthy (big if, I know, and not gonna happen), he\'d be one of the top starters in either league.
Wade is a rookie with marginal stuff, and the Phillies have seen plenty of him this series. I think the league will fare quite a bit better against him next year, too, now that they\'ve seen him a few times. The bigger mistakes were pulling Kershaw so quickly, and especially yanking Kuo after letting him bat with 2 on in the bottom of the seventh. Kuo was incredibly nasty last night - are we to believe that he ran out of gas after 14 pitches?
Torre has emotional attachments to certain relievers (Proctor, now Wade) and he goes to the well way too often. As Jay said, if you burn through your entire bullpen night after night, you\'re bound to find the guys that aren\'t at their best.
I think that was Reggie Sanders who charged Pedro.
I was thinking the same thing. I\'ve watched Furcal regularly throughout his Dodger tenure and he\'s still not 100% for sure. Normally he\'s got one of the strongest (if not THE strongest) SS arms in all of baseball. That Ruiz throw especially was not the rifle I was expecting. He also looks a little slower while running.
Is Kuo going to contribute any more this year, or are you getting the feeling that he\'s done?
Also, did you catch Saito last night? Velocity was a little bit off but he seemed to have good command and movement.
Any news on Furcal?
Last weekend against the D-Backs, Webb walked Martin and Ethier back to back on 8 pitches to load the bases and bring up Manny. What did he do? Swung and missed badly at three straight balls way out of the zone to K. I guess that means he quit on the Dodgers too, despite homering later in the game and his other exploits? Or does he have the occasional bad at bat? My guess is the latter.
robyhood - where\'s the evidence that he quit? Look at his numbers in Boston this year. They were very good and didn\'t decline at the end either.
No news on Furcal? The LA Times is reporting that he felt \"uncomfortable\" facing Saito in a simulated game recently and that he is worried about messing with the team\'s current chemistry by coming back. That strikes me as odd - Berroa has played OK but it\'s hard to imagine that Furcal wouldn\'t be a big upgrade both offensively and defensively.
Injuries, trades, lineup changes and minor league call-ups must play some kind of role too. Manny has been better than forecast. Andre Ethier forced his way into the lineup and has been playing extremely well. On the other hand, the loss of Furcal and the worse than expected performance of his replacements was a big blow. With Manny, a healthy Furcal and Saito, and Juan Pierre on the bench, this team is far better than versions we\'ve seen earlier in the summer.
I don\'t think the numbers you listed for Billingsley are correct. He has way more K\'s than listed and I think his RA is lower too.
Kuo and Biemel have been more than solid this year. It would be hard to imagine Elbert passing them up in the next month without an injury, but I agree he has looked very good. I hope he goes back to starting in the Spring.