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Certain injuries seem to be associated with certain body types and weights. We can describe the relationship between K:BB and ISO/WARP, and when graphed suggest an optimal zone for a player to target. Is it possible to describe an optimal height/weight relationship, or combination, that is least risky for injuries (in total, or b category), and further, can we then identify high risk body types (the sort of information that might lead a club/trainer to say 'you need to lose/gain 30 pounds').
This question may just bring us back to the top of the thread where the lack of historical data is discussed -- but it's a worthy goal, I think.
Two things. First, I’d like to offer my own experience as a counter to the thrifty fans who’ve chimed in so far.
I see at most one baseball game a year. Why? Because to get there I take a 90 minute flight and then a 3-hour drive.
Because it’s such a big deal to go – and yes, an escape – I couldn’t care less what the prices are at the ballpark. I pay far too much for my tickets via StubHub so that I can be close to the action (more than I’d spend if I attended games regularly), and eat and drink whatever I want.
As a fan, I’m in the market for a perfect moment. I got one on July 15, 2005 when I watched Rafael Palmeiro get his 3,000th hit. The later scandal did nothing to diminish my memory of the experience.
So for those in the ballparks who are tourists – and there must be many in New York, Boston, Chicago and LA – I think there’s a pretty low sensitivity to price.
The second comment is in response to Gary’s client, who said "They'll never make the kind of volume they're forecasting unless they charge a lot more than that."
There are a lot of products where lower price diminishes sales, because it reduces status. And some products only get taken seriously once they hit certain price points (think: fine art).
On the ballpark side, if a luxury suite was priced so that you or I could buy it, it wouldn’t be a luxury suite anymore. It’s not about the views or amenities, it’s about the exclusivity of the hosting experience.
But if the financial crisis blows a hole in your target market – if there aren’t enough investment bankers left to buy the suites, or enough price insensitive tourists to buy souvenirs – then what do you do with your product? Hopefully Gary has some ideas he’ll share in the next instalment.
I\'m not sure this tops January 7th, but I think a pretty good case can be made for ranking January 31st near the head of the class.
In addition to three Hall of Famers (Robinson, Banks, Ryan), there’s Hank Aguirre in the rotation, George Burns at first, and an outfield that’s better than league average by *OPS+.
The lineup lacks a primary third baseman – but outfielder Tex McDonald did field the position, and of course you could plug in Robinson at 3B, shift Betancourt from the bench to 2B, and have a fine infield.
Here’s what a January 31st team could look like before those switches:
Nolan Ryan (HoF, 8x A.S.)
Hank Aguirre (15 seasons, career *ERA+ 116, 2x A.S.)
Jim Willoughby / Duke Maas / Charlie Robertson
Ted Power, Bob Apodaca, Don Songer
C Pinky Hargrave (10 seasons, 99 *OPS+)
1B George Burns (16 seasons, 113 *OPS+, 1926 MVP)
2B Jackie Robinson (10 seasons, 132 *OPS+, HOF, 6x A.S.)
SS Ernie Banks (512 HR, *OPS+ 122, HOF)
OF Tim Hendryx (8 seasons, *OPS+ 115)
OF Mel Mazzera (5 seasons to 1940, *OPS+ 90)
OF Tex McDonald (4 seasons, *OPS+ 125) or 3B
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
C Fred Kendall
C/1B Rip Williams