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So we can't coin Adam Wainwright an ace either?
Shame about McCarthy. Seemed like he was finally putting things somewhat together.
I love this, have discussed this with friends all the time. Ken Williams seems to be the first to REALLY realize that a lot of the time, should one year of bad baseball really make a difference for a player who has been touted as a future star for 5+ years?
Carlos Quentin, Danks, Gavin Floyd, etc. all saw their stars fade before Williams acquired them. Heck you could even look at Ryan Ludwick as another example in St. Louis.
In some situations its understandable (Homer Bailey's diminishing returns as he's progressed through levels) but other guys just have one out of the ordinary year and are suddenly dismissed. It amazes me that more teams don't try to exploit this and buy when the prices are reduced. Great article.
No Mychael Givens or Rich Poythress? Where do you see them?
Has Ryan Jackson's lack of offense hurt him to the point of dropping bigtime? I know he's been mentioned as a first rounder if he tuned up his offensive game with an amazing Gold Glove caliber glove, but where would you see him falling since he hasn't seemed to do that much? Does he project as a quality prospect still?
I know that's a lot of questions, apologies!
All it really says is that they've graduated a ton of talent lately. I think the system is perfectly fine.
Billingsley, Kershaw, Broxton, LaRoche (pretrade), Kemp, Ethier, Martin, DeWitt... I think the last thing anyone can say about LA is they are not good at building young talent.
Wow, very moving. Thank you for sharing this.
I do agree that his blown saves would go south if leverage was increased -- but for fantasy purposes, I would think that would at most result in a handful of less saves in a year. Just thinking out loud and off the top of my head, I'd think that his increases in ratios/ERA/even Ks as he pitches to worse hitters perhaps would increase.
Hope you don't get me wrong, I love the direction of this column and leverage discussion, just trying to figure out which would be more important for Valverde's 2009 fantasy season -- increased high leverage situations or a decrease in the talent of hitters he would face.
"While Valverde's season was certainly not bad, if he were to be used in higher leverage situations going forward—situations that will most likely result in his continuing to face stiff competition—his numbers would assuredly suffer for it."
I don't understand this totally. Wouldn't using him in more high leverage situations hurt his blown saves but not ER, since more high leverage situations often will = coming in with runners in scoring position already? Also you point out earlier that he faced the third highest opponent OPS in the league, isn't that a trend that will decrease rather than increase, thus improving his overall numbers from 2008 rather than the other way around?
"If A.J. Burnett comes up short of our projections or Joba Chamberlain breaks down, you can kiss that league-best record good-bye, bank on another Bomber-free October, and watch and wonder if next winter's the offseason of the long knives in the Bronx."
Eh. I realize that both might be prone to injury, but can't we say this about any contender losing two of their best three pitchers?
I hardly think he's maxed out in terms of stuff as the Athletics coaches refine his mechanics. I'm sure he'll add velocity even if he doesn't get any further along in his physical development.
This could be a dumb question -- but is there anywhere on the site to see the future peak values you speak of with Gonzalez (Lugo)?
Who\'s going to employ him though? I think he could be a guy who signs late in the year.
How about Elijah Dukes? :)
This is fascinating stuff. Great work.
This diminishes JAWS in my eyes if the system argues that Jeff Kent is a borderline HOF\'er. I just can\'t believe that in the least.
:D my favorite time of the year
Yeah I can\'t understand saying Andrus is not a good prospect -- he may not be MLB ready yet, but that\'s another matter completely.
If you can go from Davis/Blalock and Young on a left side defense to Young and Andrus/Vizquel, I think it could be interesting to try and prevent some of those huge ERAs that are thrown on the board in Texas. Throw in a potential Sheets signing, a rotation with a few guys who could bounce back like Brandon McCarthy, and I think it\'s the right call honestly.
The only other alternative would be keeping Blalock or Davis at 3B (terrifying) or bringing in someone like Beltre/Crede. When you figure that $$ saved on those guys could rather be put into the pitching staff and Crede might not last 30 games, I think this is the move to make.
I\'m a hardcore lib -- but if Bush wrote an forward I would still read it, and not care in the least as long as it was insightful.
To seriously care this much about something like a foreward by Olbermann is ridiculous.
Glad to hear the bit about the lesser of the two prospects the Cubs received, I did not know much about them. I\'m crossing my fingers that Gaub makes it to the majors to allow me to break out an Arrested Development joke/sign at Wrigley. Oh, the possibilities are endless.
The 3B DeRosa/SS Peralta/2B Cabrera alignment is still downright befuddling. I refuse to believe they start the season with that, but I\'ve been wrong before.
Kevin, I worked at Palm Beach last year so I got to see a lot of the talent down there. Any love for Francisco Samuel, or is his control just too wild to be thought of as a prospect? Control issues aside, he had dynamite stuff.
Any chance that either Tony Cruz or Steven Hill can make a ML roster if they can provide a bit of third catcher insurance? Cruz wasn\'t amazing but Hill absolutely tore it up in Palm Beach.