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thumbs up for this format
the quarter pole marks the the last 1/4 of a mile in a horse race, not the conclusion of the first 1/4. Signed, a disheartened Astros fan.
woah...this is the biggest shocker of the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> projections. I didn't come in here expecting to see a 91 win projection. I'm not a Rays fan but I hope this team is able to piece it together enough to make a run at being a 90 win team.
I attended the Uria s/Newcomb matchup last night. Newcomb works really fast. He's ready to pitch when he gets the ball.
I'm curious if you have any information on why newcomb was pulled after 7 innings. (He had only thrown 64 pitches at that point). Is this likely just end-season inning management?
The simple fact is that if left up to Hamilton (or any addict) odds are very good that he will choose the minimum treatment and repercussions for his actions. If given that option Hamilton is unlikely to give up baseball and its financial rewards for any significant period of time.
If left up to MLB they will most likely act in whatever capacity they perceive to be their best interest. And frankly, who knows what MLB will perceive to be in the their best interest? If their best interest happens to align with Hamilton's well, that would be a stroke of luck but it won't be intentional.
It seems to me that MLB should allow the clinicians to determine the proper path for Hamilton. We don't know the extent of Hamilton's relapse, we only know what has been reported. Hamilton may have been completely honest with MLB but he is also unlikely to admit to more than the minimum. In my opinion the proper procedure is for MLB to send Hamilton to an inpatient treatment center for an evaluation and let the clinicians determine the path that gives him the best chance at sustained recovery. Maybe he needs long term rehab, maybe he needs a shorter relapse track of rehab, maybe he doesn't need either. I just think that clinicians should decide that. Send Hamilton for the evaluation with the caveat of "you follow their recommendations, whatever they are and we will too." If the clinical team determines Hamilton is fit to play ball then let him back in with a minimal suspension. If the clinical team determines that Hamilton would benefit from an extended absence from baseball, long term inpatient rehab, and even more drug screening, then that would be the course followed. etc, etc.
Neither the patient nor the employer should be making this decision.
I'm glad to see the TL on the upswing too. I live in Little Rock and the talent coming through has been unusually thin over the last couple of seasons.
What I love most about this is that it makes me hopeful that a significant part of Altuve's increased production at the plate is sustainable.
Really enjoyed the insight here. Thanks.
Funny, I thought he was a consensus top 10 pick 2 years in a row. Actually, I thought it was top 5 and that he fell for signability reasons. Hard to say "why is this a shock" when people who make their living evaluatino amateurs for a professional baseball team didn't see it. Of course, it's possible I am missing remembering how it all went down.
It seems to me that the Astros must have over looked the possible worst case scenario. In my eyes, even the slightest hint that the Astros could lose Aiken and Nix this year AND their first overall and the comp pick for next year should have been enough incentive to get a deal done at basically any cost. Either they missed it or they are gambling that it won't come to fruition. In either case, is that really what you want out of the guys who are in charge of turning this franchise around? I've been fully supportive of the franchise's chosen mechanism for rebuilding but with Appel looking like, at best a back end starter, and now this fiasco, it may be time for a change.
Can't believe that Otey the swamp possum was not there. It is truly one of the more mysterious in origin (and disturbing and pointless) mascots of all time. As far as the horse goes, yeah they remade their mascot this season and the result is a stylized version of the old mascot. Personally, I wish they would move on eliminate the connection to the confederacy all together.
I didn't mean that as a slam on the introduction. I'm just confused by how much traction that tweet has received. It's nuts that such a ridiculous tweet/opinion has been referred to as having some sort of legitimacy when discussing the merits (or lack thereof) of Singletons contract.
Norris clearly has an Astros sized axe to grind. He's been nothing but critical and disparaging since he was traded. What I'm not sure about is why anybody cares what Bud Norris has to say. What are his qualifications for judging singleton's contract? Being a current MLB player hardly qualifies one as being the arbiter for another player's financial decisions; especially when given the context of current lifetime earnings.
If singleton excels at the MLB level, he will have cost himself some money. But now he's set regardless of anything else that happens. Very few people have that kind of security. However, excelling at the MLB level is a fairly difficult task. Or so I'm told.
Anyway, fascinating article. Skewed left is my favorite series on the site.
I don't think A+/AA for 2014, AA/AAA for 2015, and a chance to make the club in spring training is out of the question for Correa. IF Correa happens to reach the big leagues in 2016 that would still be an insanely quick assent for a high school kid from the 2012 draft.
Fascinating look at the inner workings of the stranger business side of baseball. Looking forward to this series.
hopefully this marks the beginning of a slow but steady influx of guys with enough talent to warrant being everyday players. I know it will be a lengthy process but as Astros fan, this is exciting.
Adding guys from the upcoming draft class is a very nice touch. Thanks for doing that.
glad to read a solid report on Appel. Seems like a lot of evaluators were down a bit on him after his showing in the minors last fall. I know its just one inning but still it makes me hopeful he will turn out as more of a number 2 than number 3.
so you're telling me there's a chance....yeah!
I'd be shocked if Correa comes up this season. But, if Correa comes up next year and hasn't out grown SS, Villar won't be able to compete. If the Astros think Correa can stick at SS for a few seasons Villar becomes trade bait, I guess.
I think the 10 year projections are like the 50% forecasts. that's no saying that Harper will never hit more than 27 HR, that's just his 50% forecast for that season
really happy to have these back! thank you
Ervin Santana in Coors field...what could possibly go wrong with that?
Regarding Tapia, 6'2" and only 160 lbs and almost 20 years old - How much projection physically does he have? The ht/wt make me assume there is probably substantial projection there but that's not always case. Is the 6 power projection based on hit tool and physical projection or is primarily a function of the 7 potential hit tool? thanks
I agree. I would love to read a piece like that.
indeed, well done.
Appel will henceforth and forever after be known as foie gras in my household.
First and foremost, great job. Thank you to everybody who contributed in putting this together.
It seems to me that this system has evolved in a short time (a year or so) from one with that was essentially a barren wasteland with regards to pitching arms to one that now has several exciting pitchers to keep an eye on. It feels like much of the pitching started showing promise over the last season. I hope the development continues and the Astros manage to get some top of the rotation starters out of this and not just a deep bullpen.
Does the prospect feel like this system overall is a substantially deeper than just one year ago? I'm not referring to influx of talent from the 2013 draft class. I'm asking if there were a lot of guys who development seemed to kick off over the last season?
I like the brutal honesty about Ngoepe's hitting ability. Thanks for saying it point blank terms.
Wow, the difference in those splits is even greater than I would have thought.
I see "plus glove" now, missed that the first time.
So is he a 50-55 fielder? I guess I'm not really sure what "flash good leather" implies about his fielding abilities/potential. Thanks.
Pretty sure you answered your own question
This should be a great series. It should complement all of the preseason rankings quite nicely and hopefully provide insight into the developemental process. I'll look forward to these as much or as I do the Ten Pack.
Man, To hear buster olney talk you'd think the Astros have a very good shot at losing the next 130 games.
The DFAing of Ankiel and Martinez tell me the Astros are already separating the wheat from the chaff and looking to create a lineup that is more competitive. Bedard is out of the rotation. It's not like this team isn't in a constant state of roster flux and talent evaluation. In my opinion their success (or lack thereof) is going to be based heavily around somehow stabilizing the rotation.
I'd suggest that "anything on player X" is an open ended question asked to see if the author of the article might know any more information (such as the reasons you mentioned) regarding the player in question. We are all aware that sample sizes in May are small. However, that doesn't preclude us from inquiring as to the nature of results that stand out as being different than expected. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask if Zach has any more information on Cole's control struggles. I do think its a little unreasonable to assume the genesis of the question is based on the commenters focusing too excessively on a single data point.
I would think that when it comes to discussing prospects a tools deficiency would almost always outweigh makeup concerns.
glad to see the scouts views have returned. Thanks, John.
I hope you're right about Morrow. I jumped off that train in 24 team dynasty league last week. He's just Too frustrating to own. The only thing you can say for certain about him is you never know what you're gonna get. Opponent quality, ballpark, most recent starts -none of that seems to matter when trying to determine how he is likely to perform.
Adam's fastball velocity is back up to 96? That's a good sign after two season of depressed velo. Is it his command or are his secondaries not good enough to profile higher. I'll guess the answer is both.
Clint, I just wanted to say thanks for these recaps. They help keep me in the loop when things are too busy to read all of the recaps from the games.
isn't profiling as a mid to high 5 effectively league average or slightly above? for a middle infielder, I 'd say that's pretty high praise.
Matt Wright fastball of 81-83. Is that a typo? or is his delivery that baffling that he can get away with that?
best news of the day...
When people aren't happy with recent changes they almost always post about their displeasure. Allow me to say this looks like it will be fantastic tool. Thanks.
I lived n Houston until I was 6 years old (1980) The astrodome and the Astros are ingrained in my earliest and fondest memories of this wonderful game. What I remeber the most about all of those childhood trips to the Dome is the Home Run animation (and yelling CRUUUUUUUUUZ at the top of my lungs). To my 5 year old ears the animation and subsequent crowd celebration was insanely loud. It intimidated me! yet i loved it because it was loud and colorful and I knew my Astros had done something good. When I first visited MMP and saw that they carried over the HR animation it was like winning the childhood memory lottery. To this day when I visit Minute Maid Park I always look forward to the home run animation. It has a time machine effect on me. Great article. Thanks for the trip down memory lane.
I always feel like these lists reach a point where the difference between #60 and #80 ranked prospects is actually very small,while the difference between #1 and #20 is pretty huge. Do you care to comment on roughly where you see this happening on this list? I guess I'm asking where you feel the break point is between the elite and the hopefuls?
Thanks to everybody on the prospect team for the great series this year.
I've been curious to see how Nunez develops ever since KG blew him up in this series a couple of years ago. He's been a good example, for me anyway, of how much time it takes to go from 16/17 year old signee to a guy that is beginning to show up on lists like this. I'm looking forward to seeing/reading about his development this year in stateside ball.
The write up on Blake Snell sure is interesting. Sounds like there is quite a bit of potential in an arm that very few people seem to be talking about.
Hosmer's #2 comp is James freakin Loney. That smarts.
paul, any insight into Scherzer's relative struggles vs LHB last season. His overall splits were heavily slanted. I'm curious if the splits were more heavily influenced in his first few bad starts or if getting LHB out was an issue he struggled with (comparatively) all season. Thanks
Legitimate legal reason, would perjury qualify? As far as punishing people ask Bonds and Clemons how far people are willing to go.
Biggio isn't a Hall of Fame player and Palmeiro is clean? I feel like I woke up in some kind of alternate universe.
I don't think moving shields and Davis precludes the Rays from going for it. Losing Shields will certainly impact the team but they do have pitching,not Myers is ready he can play RF and allow Zobrist to return to second. Moore may take a step forward this year. Price, Moore, Hellickson and 4 or 5 guys who are probably better than most 4th and 5th starters should help ease the loss of Shields.I think TB is still in fine shape to make a push for the pennant.
What is a rhythm hitter? Would you mind elaborating on that a bit, please?
Not to beat a dead horse, but they top 10's are phenomenal. Thanks for putting together a great package. Your team is doing excellent work
Good article. I'm Not sure whether I feel better or whether I'm discouraged that 30 years and bazillions of hours of research have passed and yet many of those with pens still espouse and propagate views which clearly aren't born out when closely inspected. Seeing Trout robbed of the MVP and being forced to suffer trough non-arguments for Cabrera was disheartening.
The new format is fantastic and is exactly what I want when I am reading about prospects. I want tools profiles, ceilings, risk explanations etc and you guys have pulled it all together into a thorough, easy to read format. I sound like fanboy but I love the format and look forward to then next 29. I'm also happy that I didn't have to wait for my favorite team's report. Nice job to all involved.
"the system has a lot of talent" I am so happy to read that sentence used in conjunction with an article about the Astros. I'm on verge of being giddy.
I think this is exactly how the rebuild should be handled. However, it does look like Crane will need to spend some of that money on PR and keep the fans in the loop as to the organizations rebuilding philosophy. A little but of money thrown in that direction might payoff down the road. I don't think an organization really wants to lose a large portion of its fan base while rebuilding. Especially, while the other in-state team is currently one of the best in baseball.
KG was the single biggest reason I always renewed my subscription so I was sad to to see him go. Fortunately, him working for my favorite team eased the "loss". That's not meant as a knock on anybody that has worked or currently works at BP. I enjoy all of the content. That being said, I am really looking forward to seeing what the fresh blood brings to the table. I am confident things will move forward in a positive direction. After all, my future fantasy/strat baseball success is riding on your shoulders.
I know you've been told this several times already but the "around the majors" section is a nice addition.
I certainly think many are coming around to the idea that he has much more work to do than previously believed.
I'm really Glad to see that these are still a part BP. I know we were told they would continue but just seeing them again makes me happy. Thanks or the efforts, Bradley
As an Astros fan and a lover of KG's work here, I couldn't be more excited. Congrats KG!
totally shocked me to see Singleton under the AL ROY section...it's just weird
glad to see ovando making progress with the stick. I've been overly pessimistic about him.
So, who do you think is more likely to become a solid regular, Snider or Smoak? From reading both articles it sounds like you've got a bit more confidence in Snider. Is that a correct assessment?
so you're telling me that 2014 looks to be a rough season for the Arkansas Travelers?
Enjoyed this article, more so for the analysis of the propaects than the actual rankings ( though they are nice too). It's a good look at the talent that has recently changed organizations. Thanks for this piece.
Regarding Olt, I'd assume that his ability to play good defense at 3rd warrants a substantially higher rating than below average defense at first.
Great article. I love the insight into this side of the game.
I am excited about this series. This, to me, is the most interesting piece of scouting. I love the dream of ceilings and all-stars and franchise changing talents. Yet so few prospects reach their ceilings. This seems especially true when that ceiling is All-Star level. So many prospects don't pan out at all. I'm very much looking forward to you examining what went wrong. Was it a flaw in the scouting or a flaw in the player or both? And why did one flaw mask the other? What the scouts overlooked or what they thought was there that wasn't? Just as interesting is what happened to the prospect. What tools (or lack thereof) are the root causes of failure to develop, much less blossom. This should be excellent.
Agree completely. It feels different and it feels like the Astros are finally moving in the direction opposite from the last 5 years or so. I'm encouraged.
I guess the risk that his demands outweigh what the draft pool the Astros have. If he won't sign for less than 9 million (just a random number) then the Astros have to pool funds from other picks. Plus, I think Boras is the agent most likely to try and find and force loopholes in the new CBA. Regardless of Appel's apparent lack of leverage why risk losing pick 1.1 and enduring the Boras induced headaches, when there are at least two other guys who are suitable talents for top overall pick?
Now that the Astros seem to be playing closer to their true talent I can start dreaming about them having 1.1 or 1.2 next year!
I hope your Astros selection is right. I really want the Astros to take a chance with Buxton or Correa. I am so not on the Appel bandwagon.
several baseball writers have used the expression "quarter pole" to mark that baseball has reached 25 percent of its season. The quarter pole, in horse racing, means there is only 1/4 of a mile left, in a mile long race.
Otherwise, another great piece
I'm curious what scouts see as Rosenthal's ceiling. Is he a potential #3 or is there a chance for even more?
I wonder how much income MLB gets from MLb.tv and extra innings. If I thought a boycott would force change I would gladly do without those packages for a season or two
I'm blacked out from Houston, Texas, KC, STL. (Dallas, TX is the closest at 319 miles.) I live in Little Rock, Arkansas. All of those teams have AA affiliates in the Texas League which has a team (LAA) here. I hate that I can't watch the teams whose players I spend the majority of a summer watching play here. What kind of system is it where the interest in those MLB teams is fostered by their minor leaguers playing here but then the end product (MLB talent) is blacked out for me? It's asinine for me not to be able to see those games.
Seems like Myers had been accused of being borderline too passive in the past. Maybe those rate changes are a net positive?
Real Genius happens to be one of my favorite movies from my youth. It just makes me happy to see it briefly brought into the limelight.
I have never been happier to see a writer leave BP. Signed, an Astros fan.
Great article, Syd. Keep the classic pieces coming.
I wasn't proposing trade scenarios as much as saying, hey, why don't they see if they can move these guys, salary included, for prospects. If you can't get a team's elite prospect then aim for a couple of other high end prospects. Hence the parenthetical expression included in the post
Then the astros should pay a large portion of Wandy's salary too, particularly if they are serious about rebuilding. If the Astros want to get better and reduce the rebuilding timeframe as much as possible then their sole focus should be in creating as great an influx of talent as quickly ad possible. The new CBA limits their ability to do that, at least to some degree. Trading off these sunk costs and hopefully acquiring useful pieces should be the very next move. Ultimately, eating those costs would provide for a greater impact in talent acquistion, in a smaller amount of time. As an Astros fan, I am just trying to think of ways that the organization can hasten their ascension to repectability.
The Cards need a 1B. Send them Lee and Wandy with both of their salaries paid and acquire Taveras and Cox. (just as an example).
It's not my money but given the new CBA wouldn't t make sense for the Astros to pay ALL of Lee's and Meyers' contract I order to extract the best possible talent. These are basically sunk costs that have positive effect on a team that needs talent like the Astros. That seems like a legitimate way to negate some of the CBA's likely negative restraint on talent acquisition via IFA and draft. Wandy, on the other hand, certainly has a reasonable contract. They should be able to get both salary relief and talent from moving him.
Love this. Makes me want to buy the 1930 season for strat.
This is my favorite Parks authored article yet. For me, this is the most interesting topic in scouting. Where did the scout go wrong? what did they see that wasn't there or what didn't they see that might have been displayed? And what are scouts doing to get better? It's this area of scouting that I have found the least amount of written material on. So, thanks for putting it out there for us to read.
I think he was moved from catcher because it looked like his bat was way ahead of his catching. I don't think it was ever a Montero type "he can't catch" but more of a an issue regarding the timeframe for his path to the big leagues. I know he has something to prove in 2012 but everything I read says 2011 was greatly impacted by injuries/illness
came in to say the same. 2012 has already been determined. 2013 could happen.
How the heck does hellweg go from walking roughly 57 guys per IP to a front(ish)end SP prospect? Any word on what the adjustments were?
Any reports on your A's prospect, Renato nunez?
this is excellent. thanks
Linus over Altuve? You've gone too far. Goldstein and Parks won't stand for it.
well, this report seems more kind than others. I still think the Astros got jobbed. I'm not sure why Bourn couldn't be traded over the winter and the Braves told to go shop for Ludwick or something.
I don't think anybody considers Beckett an ace. Boston doesn't even consider him an ace
How advanced is Villar in the field? Was that the likely impetus for the promotion and was his bat just good enough let the Astros decide to give him a shot at Corpus? I guess I was a bit surprised by his promotion.
Nicasio was pumping 92 regularly by the stadium gun last night. the gun at the park is generally considered to be about 2mph slow. He was 88-89 (stadium gun) during the first inning but started hitting low 90's in the second.
Reckling was topping out at 88 last night (stadium gun), it seems like 2009 his velo touched 91 or 92. has their been any discussion of a loss of velocity or him or is this maybe a radar gun issue? It looked like he pitched okay until the Curveball still looked pretty filthy
Welcome back to the MLU. Man, I've missed you.
"multiplies like wet mogwais", nice. Did Adam ever go more than 2 innings in ST?
I'd love to read the comments or rebuttal stories written in response to this article.
Just piling on to voice my support for more scouting reports like this one I love this format.
well, this is part one, so I suppose there is still some hope
What more does Brandon Wood have to (not) do to make this list?
wow, I think everybody would be impressed if Peavy throws 164 innings ball, much less does so with a 3.17 ERA
second lowest projected runs scored in the majors, ahead of seattle. Gonna be a long season.
I guess I'm a pessimist. But I have no problem believeing that the Astros finish DFL. The highest projected OBP is .322. Two everyday players are have OBP projections of less than .300. It doesn't matter how good the pitching staff is if the Astros can't score.
Sano's ETA is 2015 amd that would make him a 21 y/o rookie. Wow, it already feels like we've been waiting on him forever.
That end sentence on the 25 and under really had me thinking chatwood had fallen considerably.
so chatwood is now Trevor Bell? eek, that doesn't sound good at all. Is it just a function of the lack of missing bats in his stint at AA? have you seen the ability to miss bats return after a little more exposure to a level? I guess I'm asking if Chatwood can learn to miss more bats with more exposure to a level. He was only 20 and only at AA for half a season..
The added info sounds great. Can't wait.
New column "minor league non update" for those whose players are left out of the MLU
Well, I'd love for the Astros to claim him. I mean he might have a real shot at beating out Johnson or manzella
Little help here. I know that Wood can't be sent to the minors without cleAring waivers. I also know he ended the season in the minors due to injury. So if he doesn't break ST with the Angels he will have clear waivers to go down right? That injury designation doesn't carry over does it?
Second is from real genius as well.
What is it that makes Delgado's ascent to the big leagues potentially quicker than Teheran's?
Why is there an assumption that walden jumps jepsen as closer?
I for one hope the Astros avoid the free agent market. That's part of what put them in this position in the first place.
what a nice surprise, weekend MLU!
nothing like knowing your team is gonna suck for the next decade. trade oswalt, berkman, myers, wandy, pence, whoever. let's get this process going full speed ahead so that maybe this team will be good before I turn 50. woody williams, ugh, don't remind me..
Ahhh, Lyles. The line bright spot in an astros fan's day.
KG, what kind of upside does Belt really have? Are we talking 15-20 homerun power with a solid OBP. Or Is there more projection than that?
tdrury, I'm just curious, what are you referring to with the "picking up bad habits at Rancho?" offensive environment issues? what?
I just love hearing that my favorite team is the bleakest situation in baseball. At this point I'd be happy if the astros could get one grade A prospect for berkman and one for oswalt. We will probably get a couple of 3 star guys instead. This rebuild is gonna take forever. Sigh
Of the Clinton SS whose more likely to stick at the position, Franklin or Noriega? And what's franklins upside?
Thanks for including Brasier's no-no
for the record, Arkansas has the only diamond mine in the world where the public can search for diamonds. The policy is finders keepers. On February 27th of this year there were 8 different diamonds found. If anything digging for diamonds in Arkansas might be an ideal offseason job.
But I think I'm gonna like this feature..
Yes I was referring to the rugby case. I think saying it caught one person in four years answers any questions I had about how reliable and accurate the test is.
will, can we look forward to a post on the new HGH test? I'm curious as to what the detection window is and the method of detection, etc. Is this a case where a player has to use the day of testing in order to get caught? is the new test reliable enough for the Union to accept it? etc, etc
here's a vote for the old format with the occasional in depth review thrown in. Thanks for all the effort.