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Hellickson' s command isn't great either, and both have flyball tendencies. This is the first time I've seen Hellickson over Moore.
But he comes with a frozen yogurt, which I call Frogurt. That's good!
In the Negative Interpertation section of the article you said Crawford was one of the teams two best position players. He had 3 walks in 120 PA this year against 22 strikeouts. That's bad.
Calling Carl Crawford one of Bostons two best palyers is incorrect. He has been hurt or awful for 2 years now.
The first comment in the SI article employs the phrase "stats cannot measure heart".
Does anyone have any idea why ownerdhip of these players is so much higher in CBS leagues?
In reality , Boston sports radio is nothing like that
I wonder if the revenue generated by 2 home games in the wild-card round will actually make winning the division a losing proposition,financially speaking.
That's not a top 15 guy at catcher?
That line isn't exactly setting the world on fire, especially for a guy with negative defensive value.
Francisco Liriano had an amazing zero unearned runs last year. Likely a result of statuesque outfielders and offical scorering that bought into "the twins are the best fielding team in baseball!" crap.
I don't think they'll trade him, but they won't put up with his poor performance again, especially if Dubront is lighting up AAA. They'll simply bury Dice-k in the pen.
If Felix Dubront not a rookie? He may not be great, but he'll get a lot of innings if (when) the Sox finaqlly pull the plug on Dice-K.
Dubront has passed Dice-k from both a stuff and performance standpoint already. Dice can't stay healthy and has been completely unacceptable even as a fifth starter for two years.
Dubront beats out dice-k for a rotation spot by June. Garuanteed.
And if your going on peak alone, Fred Lynn in center.
I'd pick John Olerud or Fred McGriff easily over Mattingly at 1B. I'd probably take Dwight Evans in right over Larry Walker, definitely over Dave Parker
Flowers line doesn't look that bad-if he can stay at catcher you can live with a .780 OPS while he develops/remains cheap.
Sure MLB, allow these two wackos to own a franchise! Who cares if they spend millions of the teams operating budget on hairsylists and shadowy, Rasputin-like figures?! Just don't let that horrible Mark Cuban in, he might spend that money on players.
Your right. I forgot about that. His contract really hasn't hurt them financially,though at least until this year. There was also some real opportunity costs there though. they had Carlos Pena on the team in 2006 and they had no where to put him.
Ortiz's extension was a 4 year 52 mil extension. while the number is higher- it also covers his 2007 year when he was an 8-9 win player. That extension was much more valuable to the Red sox than Joe is making ot out to be, and I dont know why he is excluding 2007 from his numbers.
You could isolate for Lester, who now is the only one on the staff who has had enough innings with both catchers, besides maybe Papelbon and Okijima. but probably not enough to get anything meaningful.
Another thing is that every pitcher, save Beckett has seen a significant spike in their BB/9. I wonder if this can be atttributed to Maritnez.
For that matter I'd keep Dice-K on a short leash as well,porvided they have other options(a healthy Wakefield). Last reprots from Pawtucket had his fastball mostly 88-89. he has a final warm up start today, so we'll see.
I don't think that Bowden is a guy their willing to trust with a rotation spot. His combination of stuff/command seems short of what is required to succeed in the AL East.
I know it really doesn't have anything to do with this article, but does anyone have any insight as to who the sox are going to bump from thier rotation whe Dice-K comes back?
The meth in Bakersfield isn't that great.
It usually takes so long to sell a team, that if a team decides to sell it now, it probably won't happen until late 2011
How many righties with 88-91 fastballs have "Cy Young stuff"
Sure, but in the last 2 years Howards walk rate has been around 10.5%. If he goes back to 2006-07 BB/pa levels, he's fine, otherwise it will be tough for him to put up "star level" (4-5 win) numbers with his contact rate.
I don't know how PECOTA came up with McGriff as his number 1 comp.
Howard is a star level player, but he doesn't really have the same skill set as Thome much higher K/BB or McGriff who had a much higher contact rate.
1. The Cardinals are in a win-now mode as well
2. Pujols represents a three to four win improvement based on runs prevented and created over Howard. That is a enormous.
3. Sure you could sign Howard long term, but would you want to?
Nolasco was probably the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Something not reflected in his SnlVar. And Bonafacio should be released.
Martinez wasn't just a good hitter, he was close to top thirty all-time by some metrics, and there is over a 90(!) point spread in OBP between him and Dawson. Martinez also played 600 + games at 1B/3B.
Also Puckett's and Koufax's career, unlike Mattingly, ended due to medical reasons.
As for the Puckett/Koufax rule, i dont think Mattingly's peak was anywhere near Koufax, even if you adjust for 1960's Dodger's Stadium, and I'm of the mind that Kirby Puckett's induction was a mistake.
Mattingly peak was very short, was all that great for a 1B if you look at his triple slash stats and arguing a first baseman belongs because of his glove is a tough sell.
I think the health difference between Jackson and Scherzer is real. There were starts last year when Scherzer's velo would simply dissapear and he got killed.If Jackson can command his fastball a little better the NL West will make this deal look good for the D-Backs.
I don't think you can trade a player you sign that off-season until May 1 without his consent.
I could see the Red Sox, who lost Wagner, Saito and thier first round pick on signing Scutaro, picking up Valverde or Gonsalez.
Brian Shouse has had a cool career. You have to admire his stubborness.
The Sox will offer arb. to Wagner. The chance of getting a 2 draft picks in the 15 to 50 if Wagner turns it down is wotrh risking the extra 4 million over the 8 million option if Wagner accetps arb.
I think Pineiro and even Matinez are too low. Two of only a handful of guys on this list with plus command. Most of the guys in front of tem beat themselves with walks.
Guerrero has had trouble with real hard throwers. his 1-11 against Papelbon reflects that as much as any samle size fluke.
What factors are you using to judge relative league quality?
Then you failed.
Is this Steve Phillips?
what is this chart supposed to show? That Fielder and Mornaeu are equally valuable? In 2006 Fielder was a 22 year old rookie and had the value of a replacent player, and Morneau was an MVP. Since then he blows Morneau away by about 40 runs of value. Are you sure your not a dummy?
Take away 2006 when Prince was a 22 year old rookie who performed at a replacement level. And the difference in the two players value appears.
Prince Runs above average 119.5, -18 uzr
Morneau- Runs above average 58.6 + 2.2 uzr
or about 40 runs worth of value in a three year period.
Fine!! I submit!! Justin Morneau is a slightly above average player.
The one where Morneau is an average player.
Morneau isn't a bad player, he's just average. His UZR/150 averages out at +1.5 since he started playing since he started playing everyday in '06(I went overboard when I said he was "bad") and he is 6 out of 13 AL qualifiers at 1B in OPS this year. You' re right about the drop=off between him and any potential replacements, but that says more about the Twins roster construction than Morneau.
losing a bad defensive first baseman with an .850 ops shouldn't be the deathnell for any team. Morneau is overrated, and his absence is also
according to FRAA, Ellsbury's glove has declined by 40(!) runs between 2008 and 2009. I wonder if Jayson Bay and J.D. Drew are having an effect on his numbers.
A second AL team in the New York market might be the right idea. Baseball avidity in Tampa may never be high enough support a team
I'm not writing that to rip on John or this article. I just find SNLVAr annoying
SNLVAR is the most annoying stat that BP has ever come up with. Why invent a piching stat that isolates team offense but not defense?
Peter Gammons, in several articles, alluded to Strasburg playing in Japan. Any word on that? I assume if that happened they would have to go to the indusrial league to become free agents.
Wang has no chance of being effective against a good line up. Too many walks and too much hard contact. The illusion that he is back because he got a win last night is going to get him probably three more starts, likely losses, before the Yankees make the right move and start Hughes. What do you think the marginal value of 3 wins is in the AL east this year?
Then why is there a "plus" button?
No. They are not entitled to anything. MLB isn't a free enterprise, but a licensed monopoly. A fact that works in the players' interest.
I agree that runaway government is to blame- But Fehr should have recognized that that was a possibility after the ridiculous first round of senate hearings. Keeping those test results around for three years after the fact was recklees.
Keeping the anonymous 2003 testing samples around, reportedy in hopes of finding a false positive, was particularly idiotic. Does any think that another big name being leaked has something to do with his stepping down?
In virtually every other profession, your lucky to make 10% of a professional baseball players salary. Baseabll has the right to protect it's product by controlling the quality of competition. If the player doesn't like it he can play in the indie leagues, like Luke Hochevar.
And average citizens, who don't drink and drive, are supposed to support that? That's exactly the type of arrogance that has destroyed unions in this county.
Are you really asserting that Fehr's goal during the congessional hearing was to defend a players "right to privacy"? I agree that the government's ateempt to rip up a contract that was negotiated in good faith between MLB and the players was enough to make anyone's blood boil, but to poray Fehr as some type of civil rights crusader is foolish.
-11? Are BP readers really that dumbed down that they get that this post was supposed to be funny? Lighten up.
It's a market system, If they produce revenue for thier employers, then they are not overpaid.
Does SNLVAR take team defensife ability into account or strength of competition into account? If not is it really an accurate indicator of how good a pitcher really is?
Excellent. I don't think that the players union will make a stink about getting a piece of the subsidiary revenue. in the other league where the players are gauranteed a certain percentage of revenue it is usually part of the salary cap structure, and I don't the players association will go down that road .
For the record in a points leauge that counts walks, and the difference, Based on PECOTA between Pujols and the number two 1B, was about the same as the difference between Cabrera and the tenth best 1B (Morneau)
This shares a weakness that many articles sabout specififc fantasy teams share in that it doesn't really help unless you know specififcs about the depth of the leauge and the scoring system. This is important, as a guy like Michael Bourn is a star in one type of format and a scrub in another. With the multitude of he best antasy articles are the ones that cover how players perform in reality, then you can translate that to your own team
One thing that I don't get- If it misses high on Francoer's BABIP due to neglecting to account for pop-ups, how come it doesen't have the same effect on Hunter or Konerko?
Agreed. It was like when Paulie took overthat restraunt in "Goodfellas".
Any word on Encarnacion? I'm wondering if I should keep him in my fantasy league, as I've run out of DL spots.
One more issue- I don't think that teams are "willing to take a chance" that a player reduces his strikeout rate when they sign a player like Dunn, a TTO guy who is truly limited defensively. I simply think that he was valued according to his ability. Guys like Mike Cameron are valuable assets be cause of their D. Also one a player establishes who he his, his BB rate, K rate and HR rate are among the most predictable things in all professional sports.
When you say "average" pitchers, do you mean every stat is adjusted, of just the defense independent ones, like K-rate, G/F, etc.?
Good article, but I think that Branyan's lack of steady employment is due to his inability to generate enough walks to be an asset offensively. He is more of a two true outcome guy.
Johnson's 4-seamer was around 94 according to mlb gameday, about 1 mph off so no big deal. The Marlins D should improve with the removal of Maybin, who spent 5 weeks turning outs into doubles and triples. Hope Johnson's okay.
My bad, it was thinking one year at $45 million instead of two.
How seedy. I bet he almost wishes it was streoids.
more like 14 million(!) if you pro-rate it for about a third of the season.
I don't think Nolasco is as unlucky as you say. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a terrible defensive outfield(The Marlins average defense seems to be a composite of a good infield and a bad outfield). Nolasco will improve, but I think we're looking at a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher from here on out.
Will- what is up with Harden? In Buster Onley's column today it said he was throwing 85-89.
Will, Any news on Encarnacion's shoulder? I drafted him fairly high in my league and I wonder if I should use my waiver pick ona back up.
How it benefit U.S. citizens to use taxpayer dollars to create manufacturing jobs overseas?
If you play in league where walks count, espescially in a points based league, the difference between Pujols and the #2 first baseman(Teixera)) is about the same as the difference between Teixeira ant the #12 first baseman (Morneau), According to Pecota. No other position has that kind of best and the rest separation
Their high A seasons were close, I\'ll give you that, but Ramirez has the longer track record, posting a .900+ OPS for 4 striaght years, and he is ready to play in the majors now. Montero is what- 5 years away? and his youth isn\'t really an asset when they are already talking about 1b/DH. Montero\'s upside is what Ramirez is right now- a .300/.400/.500 hitter who is probably a DH.
Kevin, what makes Jesus Montero the #38 prospect while Max Ramirez Doesn\'t make the top 100? Ramirez has the better numbers at a higher level and is both closer to the big leagues and seemingly more likely to stat at catcher. isn\'t Ramirez the better prospect?
doesn\'t Jim Edmonds fit the same profile as Griffey? he\'s still available, right?
I guess \"no secondary skills\" is too strong, he did show good doubles power. But 15 walks in ~600 PA is a definite red flag, even for a 17 year old.
Engle Beltre still hnaging around in the 60\'s after posting a 2% walk rate. didn\'t he do the same thing as Triunfel? AVG and no secondary skills while being young for his level?
the upside of Ellsbury\'s OPB, barring someserious BABIP love, is probably ~.350 due to his lack of power. Why would any pitcher ever throw him ball four?
I don\'t remeber anything like that at all, Buccholz was the top Boston prospect, the hype at last years preseason was \"Joba vs. Buccholz\"
Agreed. This is low hanging fruit for a lot of media members who will take any chance they get to be sanctimonious. The real fallout from this is going to be 3 months of crappy baseball articles on ESPN, starting with Howard Bryant\'s today.
I have a feeling that a lot of the grief that Bonds recieved had more to do with his abrasive personality and a backlash against his lionization by ESPN than his skin color.
prepare for another 3 months of non stop steriod talk!
one of the main problems of the Yanks are thier poor defense efficiency, I don\'t think another old outfielder is going to help the Yankees with that, (not sure how edmonds profiles in RF), what they need are defense poriented players for center and right and maybe a catcher.
You can add Jack Cust, Milton Bradley, Erubiel Durazo, Fank Thomas and Aubrey Huff to that list. This years candidates include Dallas McPherson and Nelson Cruz. A contending team is probaly not going to go into the season with a guy like McPherson who struck out 170 in AAA last year as it\'s primary DH, but it beats playing Jose Vidro or Jason Tyner there, which the Twins did several times in \'07.
Why play $10 to $20 million for a DH when they seemingly grow on trees? in the past few years there have been plenty of 950 OPS guys who have been singed to a minor league deal(Carlos Pena) traded for Einar Diaz (Hafner) or non-tendered in favor of Doug Mientkewitz (Ortiz)-This doesn\'t include guys like Bradley or Thomas. there are good DH\'s out there that can be had for peanuts and a good GM will find them.
I can\'t wait to read all the rational, insightful, non-partisan things that Olberman has to say! Is Gloria Stienam writing the 2010 intro?
Access to the BP player comments for retired players. There are some really hilarious ones.
Milton Bradley really would have looked nice on this team, and would have made the Reds a true contender.
By the way, Kevin, was the Moskos pick so bad that he can\'t even crack the top 14 in a bad organization a year after being selected 4th overall?
I\'m still not sold that the Pirate\'s baseball ops are going to field a winning team. the Coonelly/Huntington dynamic is wierd, you don\'t really know who is in charge, and that brinksmanship they played when alvarez fell into thier laps was dangerous. Outside of the Knicks and Lions this was the worst run franchise in professional sports and there is a large gap between \"Dave Littlefield\" and competent
Or Alan Trammell
How can anyone vote for Rice, Baines or Parker, But not Dwight Evans?
why sign Dunn when you can have Milton Bradley at a similar price? Bradley\'s contact skills make him a better offensive player and has proven he can hit in the AL. Sign a ML free agent for 1B (Dallas McPherson). It is time to pull the plug on that awful Betancourt/Lopez combo. Upgrade now
A better comp for Morris is David Wells
Rob Schnieder!!!! Let me on that Bandwagon!
In defense of the Rockies passing on Longoria no scouting report I saw thought that that was an elite level bat, especially at 3B. That pick is bad because Reynolds was huge overdraft,and there were a ton of better players left.
I expcet more from Castiglione. Ryan Howard over Pujols?, Morneau over Mauer? Come on.
I still think the white Sox take it, The Twins have been singles lucky all year, on offense and defense. 23 games is a long time to stay lucky.