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An interesting follow-on article would be to track those who underperformed their draft day value the most in the first fifth of the season and see how their value the rest of the season played out.
Or in other words, should I drop Tulo now or hold onto him a while longer? :)
What about Trout in a package deal with Pujols? It seems like any Angels rebuild needs to include getting rid of the $144M that Albert is still owed.
Agreed on no walks, but he doesn't strike out a ton either. I'm holding if only because the alternatives out there pretty much look like Segura in a bad month.
Strasburg is not making Kershaw-type money, but he is still comfortably in the Top 10 all-time richest contracts for pitchers.
That said, this makes you wonder if Boras or Strasburg know more about his arm health that the Nats do - or at least looked at the odds and determined that cashing in now made more sense.
Limiting the sortable stats to pitchers with over 25 innings shows <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52691">Jake Arrieta</a></span> ranked #59 (about league average) with a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> of 3.94. I think it would be interesting to go over Arrieta's stats and explain how he has been a league average pitcher so far this year while <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57473">Matt Moore</a></span> is a top 3 pitcher.
It is also showing a total of 91 pitchers with a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> of 0.00. I'm not sure that pitchers like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Henry+Owens">Henry Owens</a></span> / <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45515">John Danks</a></span> / <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49616">Mike Pelfrey</a></span> / <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49127">Jered Weaver</a></span> are deserving of this honor.
Since you mentioned <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a>, any idea when we will start seeing numbers for 2016 in the stats and elsewhere? The end of April is early, but not *that* early.
But if you sort the teams in reverse order of HLF, AHLF, Win WC%, or Playoff% the Phillies move right to the top of the list! It's good to be best at something, but the Phillies are best at a lot of things.
So what's more amazing, Colon's K;<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> ratio or Gordon's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a>?
I'm wondering if <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Carlos+Gonzalez">Carlos Gonzalez</a></span> should be on this list. Last year's unexpected slump appeared to be due to injuries, but things haven't improved much this year.
Will <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PVORP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PVORP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PVORP</span></a> also be converted to using <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> at some point?
I like how for the Phillies best way to improve their playoff odds is not to play!
I'm dismayed to see that all of the articles on small sample size that we see every year here still don't seem to be sinking in. An entire year of Puig at bats leading to a team-high OPS are overruled by a three-game mini-slump (where he still managed 4 runs scored and a .774 OPS).
Sorry, but I consider the Puig benching to be a panic move by Mattingly. I can't prove that it made any difference in Game 5, but I am certain that it was the wrong move.
So no longer looking like a small cup of coffee after all.
Two Chicago questions:
Cubs - any reason to think Ramirez will get a shot without some meltdowns from Rondon? Managers seem to avoid messing with something that's currently working.
Sox - long term (meaning the rest of this year) should we expect Matt Lindstrom or Nate Jones to get a serious look once one of them comes off the DL?
So when do you just punt a category? I'm last in steals in a 12 teamer, not that close to 11th, and I'm not sure Gentry will get me out of the hole I've dug. Is it too early to just give up the category, pick up Adam Dunn / Nick Markakis, and try to max out everything else?
I'd be interested to hear what BP thinks about how teams are increasing tying a callup to the majors with signing a team friendly contract. Apparently Singleton was promoted only because he was willing to sign, and Polanco stays in the minors for now because he is unwilling to.
How about the mess in Oakland? Is Jim Johnson still worth a flyer, or is he really going to be a $10M middle relief man?
Loss Aversion also seems to be the main impediments to trades in leagues I play in - half of the owners are so deathly afraid to make a mistake that they will generally never trade at all.
Should these rankings include some sort of normalization based upon how often the player has visited each city in the past? For example, Chipper played at Houston 67 times in his career, while Jeter has played in Houston only 5 times - making his haul even more impressive. Can't wait to see what the Red Sox give him.
"Now would be the time to pick up Sergio Santos." Just realize that in competitive saves leagues Santos was probably scooped up 15 minutes after the Janssen news came out. You are probably better served concentrating on potential closer changes on the horizon.
Thanks for the easy navigation tool.
On a related fantasy note, is there any way to get more timely updates to the Depth Charts? As of today at 11AM the charts are still showing Jarrod Parker (def. out for the year) and Patrick Corbin (likely out for the year) as front line starters for their teams. In fact no updates at all to the Depth Charts since March 13. I guess the goal (or hope) would be for daily updates during the next two weeks when most fantasy drafts occur.
Hopefully nobody is drafting today using the above data, as Jarrod Parker is out for the year. I really think BP needs to make the effort to do daily updates here while the majority of fantasy drafts are going on.
Case in point: with the news that Kris Medlen may require TJ, I would expect his playing time to be lowered considerably.
I had not seen an update on him yet, which is OK since this is new info, but the problem is I can't find evidence of *any* updates to FPM since it's release. A running list of updates would be very helpful.
Like the question above, I wonder whether PECOTA values older players too much in general, or underestimates the decline phase?
I know this is anecdotal, but it seems that there are far more older players who underestimate their projections (see above lists) than exceed them. Or to put it another way, a poor season from an older player seems to be taken as an outlier rather than a "new normal".
But on the other hand, this rumored contact gets him some pocket money now (though it sounds like a lot to us drones, he must be tired of getting $400K a year), protects against catastrophic injury or decline as you mentioned, and still has him hitting free agency at a time where a record setting 10 year deal would be palatable to a lot of teams.
Shame you can't thumbs up BP Staff posts.
Second the request for Philly, but only if Reuben shows up to talk sabermetrics with us. :)
In a vacuum the Utley deal makes sense, and from a fan's perspective it make sense to resign the face of the franchise (though I thought Howard was the face of franchise when he signed his five year extension).
But looking at the bigger picture I don't how Amaro is addressing the Phillies biggest issue (an aging injury prone lineup) by resigning the oldest members of that lineup. I guess that things are going to hve to get much uglier in Philly before the real rebuild begins.
BTW it would be great if BP added a messageboard / forum function where subs could ask questions like this ...
I don't know where else to ask this on BP, so I'll ask here ... not clear on how pither stats like VORP are calculated for pitchers. Prime example, Homer Bailey has a poor outing despite getting a win (5.1 innings, 5 ER, 3 SO) but the BP stats show his VORP increasing from 28.2 to 29.6.
Meanwhile Steven Strasberg (also on my team) has a much better ERA (3.01 vs. 3.73), better WHIP (1.07 vs. 1.16), and 5 less Ks in 12 fewer innings pitched - but has only earned 12.7 VORP for the year vs. Bailey's 29.6.
I don't get it. I would think at some point VORP would have some correlation to performance.
So what is an All-Star? Is he strictly one of the top players for that season? How much should previous seasons count? I'd argue that someone like Donaldson deserves to be in more than, say, Cal Ripken in 2001 (.222 TAv) who got in due to his name only.
And I would say that in both cases above you have ample evidence of collusion, and all of the participating players should be dumped from the league.
Did you even read the article? The criticism of Amaro isn't the poor moves, but that he has yet to acknowledge that his expectations were incorrect year after the fact. Amaro still seems to think that Howard will once again become the Howard of 2009, and does not seem to grasp that you had better make plans for (and not be surprised by) injuries on an aging roster.
But if they get the right offer now, why wait? This isn't the typical half season rental after all. The only reason to wait is because they believe his trade value is suppressed due to his injuries this year.
I'm not sure why you consider Stanton unlikely to move. Like it or not, Miami has shown itself to be a very frugal organization and they may not be happy with the coming arbitration hearings for Stanton.
Just look at Miguel Cabrera - awarded $7.4M in arbitration in February 2007 - by December of the same year he was shipped to Detroit.
I drafted Halladay, Haren, and Beckett hoping that they would turn out to be buy-low value picks - instead they torpedoed my ERA and WHIP so badly that I'm still trying to recover.
Will recent Marlins drafts now be considered howling successes since so picks are now showing up on the MLB club?
Nice article. Since you didn't mention him specifically, what's happenned to Huston Street? My only concern for him in past years has been his health, but this year his ERA and WHIP are at career highs.
Perhaps the Cardinals should take the Lance Berkman Challenge and play the rest of their "home" games at Wrigley. They'd then be on pace for a 107-55 record with their 129 remaining games away from Busch.
B. A full 162 game projection based on updated PECOTA projections.
Which raises the question - have the underlying PECOTA projections themselves been updated, or just playing time forecasts?
Is there any way to get updated full season projections, either in PFM or an updated PECOTA spreadsheet?
"He successfully willed a publicly financed stadium to happen, which is probably helpful to other owners wanting same."
Go tell that to the Dolphins. Their stadium renovation plans are basically DOA due to the public backlash from the Marlins deal. And if the Marlins stadium is already being described as a "public fleecing" and a "white elephant", I don't think that helps other MLB teams asking for public financing of their upcoming stadium projects.
"In the end, the league can’t force Loria out as owner."
Why not? Certainly Loria has undermined the Marlins franchise (and community) every bit as much as McCourt did to the Dodgers. It certainly seems like the best interests of baseball would suggest a new owner for the team.
2011 BABIP: .270
2012 BABIP: .285 (appr.)
2013 BABIP: .385
So how much of his BABIP is due to his "new swing" and how much is due to "dumb luck"?
8 team mixed league rotisserie, 5 SPs with one or two on the bench to rotate in and out (4 bench spots total), no DL. There is an innings limit, so going with 6 active SPs for a while is not an issue.
I also have Verlander, Wainwright, Matt Harvey, and Mike Minor - figured these guys are safe.
Somewhat related, but not related to the above:
An impatient owner has already dumped Zach Greinke after his unfortunate WWE match with Carlos Quentin. If I am able to claim him off waivers, I would be dropping one of three SPs off to a slow start: Halladay, Haren, or Beckett. Any thoughts on which two of these is more likely to show that their poor start was a fluke?
Last April and May Mike Trout was sitting on my (shallow mixed league) waiver wire - and once he got called up and started mashing I debated picking him up until someone else grabbed him and took advantage of his MVP-caliber season.
So my question is - when do you ignore your generally sound advice and tweak your roster early?
How much would you bump Hanley up in a keeper league? (Three years max in my league.)
To my untrained mind I wouldn't expect any pitcher to be throwing their best stuff in mid March. I'm not sure exactly when reduced velocity becomes a concern, but my guess is the answer is "not yet".
Good article. Hopefully we'll see a Collateral Damage roundup soon covering all of the current injury news.
You know, an article (or set of them) covering keeper strategies / rankings for all positions would be a great thing for BP.
Right away when? Everybody seems to forget that he was hardly extraordinary last year, and he was only called about up three months ago. By the time it was clear how special he was, it was probably already too late to get a significant bargain for his services.
At this point I'd say there is no rush to extend him.
Even if your point is correct about youth involvement in baseball, there is no evidence that that is affecting attendance at the major league level - in fact the opposite it true.
And I don't understand how a planned contraction would "fix" anything - they only thing it would do is provide owners with more potential cities to threaten to move to when they want the next new publicly financed ballpark for their team.
But it is an interesting coincidence that teams with the most pitcher friendly parks (Seattle, San Diego, Oakland) also have a dearth of hitting talent. Just a coincidence, or do Safeco and Petco get into hitters heads and create a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Surprised that Justin Upton didn't make the list ... or were the early trade rumors all a smokescreen?
No matter what the underlying numbers show, the Orioles are 2.5 games out of a wild card spot as I write this, and it would be politically untenable for the Orioles to go into selling mode. And on occasion the chariot does not turn back into a pumpkin.
That said, it would be smart for the O's to be realize they are playing over their heads at least a bit, and plan any last minute acquisitions accordingly.
Is Stephen Drew a possible upgrade for the Pirates at SS? The Diamondbacks have certainly made it clear they aren't happy with him and will move him if possible.
Not nix. Especially this year, the Reds may look back and regret the day they turned down an extra win or two.
And if you believe that he could have had $6.0M or more from the Astros, it becomes more of a head-scratcher, as it would take a very fortunate set of circumstances to repeat as a consensus 1st pick next year and get the same or better bonus offer.
I hope Mr. Appel does well in the coming year, but I'd say the odds favor that he will regret turning down $3.8M (or potentially $6.0M) this year.
Or if Bud is going insist that the regular season will not resume until Friday, play the Futures Game on Monday night (MLB Network or ESPN), Home Run Derby on Tuesday (so Cano can get more than 3 hours of sleep before participating), ASG on Wednesday?
Or at bare minimum move the Futures Game to Wednesday night or Monday afternoon. It's current time slot is killing it right now.
I was always a sucker for giving Elijah Dukes one more chance. How many has he gotten already?
Oops, just looked on Google News at what Dukes has been up to recently. Unfortunately the downward trajectory continues.
I think your just the messenger, BP's Woody Harrelson (from 2012) if you will. :)
Signs of the Apocalypse - (1) Pirates in the top half of the Hit List; (2) A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard both with better records and ERAs than Tim Lincecum.
Expect to see California slide into the Pacific any day now.
"Going further, the massive escalation in media rights fees will be passed on to customers in the form of subscription fees through cable and satellite operators."
That is an understatement, to put it mildly. I think an interesting future atricle would be on how things go until the rights fees bubble bursts. Are cable and satellite subs really going to pay $10 - $20 a month or more just for their local RSN?
On the Pirate comment: I'm pretty sure Pittsburgh could win the World Series this year (not that I'm expecting that) and still finish in the bottom third of the Hit List.
Here's a pretty good umpire retirement indicator (from a comment at hardballtalk.com):
"I only know the name of 3 umpires, Jim Joyce, Cowboy Joe West and Angel Hernandez. Joyce I’ll give a pass to because he’s supposed to be a good ump who made one bad call. However I think that any umpire who’s name I can remember should be fired, because if I know they’re name then they’re obviously doing something wrong."
OBAMA SHOULD SPEND LESS TIME WORRYING ABOUT THE GREEK GOD OF WALKS AND MORE TIME ADDRESSING THE GREEK FISCAL CRISIS. THIS (THE YOUK TRADE) WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED IF THE REPUBLICANS WERE IN POWER.
It seems that sooner or later (hopefully sooner) these escalating rights fees and resulting monthly costs for RSNs will reach a tipping point - and those who don't care about sports will no longer hand over $$$ a month for their RSN and ESPN.
Eventually sports channels will be forced to become a-la-carte premium channels, either by consumers themselves or Congress. Let those who really want ESPN and RSNs pay the $$$ for them. And if this bursts the RSN revenues / team revenues / player salaries bubble, so be it.
Maybe Diekman thought he was pitching to Jonny Gomes. A really, really good version of Jonny Gomes.
So what is the label for players like Ellsbury who appear to take much longer than average to recover from injuries? First it's losing almost an entire season to cracked ribs, now closing in on three months for a shoulder injury that your stats claim is a 15-day injury.
It's not clear he gets injured more often than average, but his recovery time from these injuries seems excessive.
Mike Lamb, Pork Chop Pough, and Chicken Hawks feel left out.
Pirates in 1st place in mid-June and they can't rate any better than a 1.2% of winning the division? The Hit List is rigged worse than the Miss USA Pageant. :)
I wonder if Nuke LaLoosh would be able to get one past Vlad (without hitting the mascot, of course).
It is interesting that despite all evidence and data to the contrary, the PECOTA man-crush with Kila Ka’aihue continues (weighted mean projection of 1.7 WARP this year and 2.4 WARP in 2013).
He may soon be able to join other members of the PECOTA All-Stars such as Matt Wieters, Daric Barton, and Jack Cust. :)
And when they stop blacking out "home teams" in areas where you can't even get the games on cable. Ex. Nats and Orioles blacked out in Charlotte, even though many if not all of the local cable providers will not pick up MASN for these games.
The Wiki page also notes:
"A mammoth air-conditioning system will cool the average temperature to a comfortable 75 °F (24 °C) with the roof and glass panels closed. The Marlins expect for the roof to be closed for about 70 of the 81 home games and likely to remain open on some dry nights in April, when the weather isn’t too hot."
His durability over a long season may be a concern, but the climate of Miami shouldn't be.
Has BP (or anyone else) done a study on whether players who do not sign with the team that drafted them come out ahead or behind as a result? For example, would Crow have made more than the ~$4M BP estimate thru 2012 if he had signed with the Nats?
And is there any way Appel recovers the $5M or so he lost by having Boras portray him as a signability concern?
This is basically the same system as the NFL implemented - except that we haven't yet seen any NFL draft picks or their agents indicate that they might refuse to sign for the designated slot value.
And BTW, there is no evidence that the courts will intervene, because of (1) anti-trust exemptions granted by Congress and (2) these rules were put in place due to a negotiated contract between the management and players.
Replying to myself, apparently the Pirates would get a #9 pick next year if unable to sign this years #8 pick.
Seems fairly low risk for the Pirates - offer slightly above slot money to Appel. If he takes it you've gotten a bargain with the #8 pick. Otherwise you've got an extra first round pick next year.
So what do the Pirates lose if Appel refuses to sign and returns to Stanford? Do they get any compensation for the lost draft pick?
Which makes it fortunate that Zambrano is pitching his home innings in the retractable roof Marlins Park.
Informal poll for Mets fans: acording to Jeremy Schapp on ESPN last night, the only thing New Yorkers remember about Beltran is how he took the called third strike against Adam Wainwright, ending the 2006 NLCS.
Is this typical substandard reporting on Schapp's part, or are Mets fans really that myopic?
Unclear, is that a good thing or a bad thing? :)
I remember back in the old days of 24 MLB teams and two divisions per league, my Pirates would make two yearly west coast swings to play LAD / SF / SD in a row. That seems to make a lot more sense than the current insanity of the Dodgers traveling three time zones east to play one series.
Is it impossible to construct sane schedules with the current division setups, or is it just that MLB doesn't care anymore?
Gekko tends to be buy-low sell-high, so I'm not sure he'd see the Yankees as a good deal. But I'm sure he would be proud of how Frank McCourt looted the Dodgers and then made hundreds of millions on the sale.
Per the Urban Dictionary:
To be completely and honestly serious.
A reply used by people who have been questioned on the truth of their comment.
To be truthful and not lie."
What's wrong with the Rockies being honest? :)
Same for the Pirates. While I don't *expect* either to be withing sniffing distance of the playoffs in September, a 0.0% Playoff Odds when both are only 4 games behind the division leader doesn't sound right.
FYI, not sure if you're using the same report to populate the Daily Hit List but currently all teams are showing a 0% Playoff Odds.
All teams Playoff Odds at 0%. I think I liked the old broken Playoff Odds better. :)
Dunn in still headed for a career high in strikeouts (SO rate about 35% for 2012, compared to 36% for 2011 and 28% for his career). What's the chance this recent HR binge is just small sample size?
With Youk likely moving on after this year, I would expect the Red Sox to hang onto Middlebrooks. While I wouldn't call it "rebuilding" per se, this appears to be a good time for the Sox to transition to younger talent.
Thanks for the info.
So what will ever get the MLB to update their blackout policies, esp. the ridiculous territory claims that prevent viewers from watching teams on mlb.tv and Extra Innings even though they are hundreds of miles away from the studium?
Examples: Mariners games in Billings MT 818 miles, Braves games in Natchez MS 481 miles, Reds games in Tupelo MS 489 miles. I mean really, are there Reds fans in Mississippi, and if there are why does MLB dislake them so much? :)
"Don't pay for saves" is an adage typically used on Draft Day. And with an average turnover of around 50%, I think it is still a valid point that a dollar spent on an elite batter or starting pitcher is still safer than that dollar spent on a closer.
I suspect that your chances of picking the 2011 version of Adam Dunn is lower than the chance of picking a closer who loses his gig.
Yep, organized by team is a good thing. I'd would like to see dates attached to all comments - a lot are missing them at this point. Thanks.
Charlie probably also thinks that wins in September are worth more than wins in April and May, when in fact (surprise!) they all count the same.
This article is reassuring for the Angels and Pujols owners, whether he is age 32 (as advertized) or slightly older than that (as widely suspected). Thanks.
Returning to the first player mentioned for a bit - when does a slow start by Pujols stop being small sample size and become at minimum a confirmation of the decline from 2011? In other words, when is it time to no longer consider him a Top 10 player?
Ron Kittle must be special, because he also failed due to Reason #5 which you won't tell us about. :)
Two things. First, there's no reason Harper can't be sent back down once Morse and/or Zimm return, unless he's playing out of his mind.
Second, I'm confused by Bryce's player card ... the PECOTA 2012 Weighted Mean Forecast shows 238 PAs, while the projection at the top of the card shows 463 PAs and about double for all the counting stats. Why the disparity?
Though the team is not in a win now mode, it *is* winning now, and to bring up someone other than Harper smacks of planning for the future when it could very well be that the future is now.
Or to put it another way, I don't think you want the GM saying that he thinks tha Nats aren't as good as their record indicatesand that he's really setting the team up for 2013 or 2014.
Hoopefully you can revise the table to allow an override of these dates when prudent, or at least have a separate column / comment with your best-guess outlook.
On a positive note I do want to say that once the kinks are worked out this format should be a plus.
We also need to see some maintenance done on the AGL / return data itself. Sorry to be blunt, but listing a Bobby Jenks return data of March 08 and a Stephen Drew return date of April 02 is just sloppy, not to mention the players off the DL like Burnett and Upton who are still listed here.
BP, thank you once again for your insightful, statistical-driven analysis. :)
I can beat that ... according to Scott Pianowski at Yahoo! "the second one missed a home run by about two inches."
You would have thought that what's happened (and what will likely happen) to Ryan Howard would be a cautionary tale, but I guess that lesson was lost on the Reds.
Or is this just a parallel to what we often see in government and politics (no matter what the party) - bread and circuses today, let somebody in the future figure out how to clean up the mess?
Only if the Reds eat the majority of his salary for the remaining years to trade him, or pay him to sit at home.
Excellent and informative article. Thanks!
With Mike Aviles being named the Opening Day starter, does his value get a bump?
The offense is middle of the pack with a distinct chance of being horrendous depending on what types of years Howard / Utley / Rollins have.
Great piece. It's interesting to observe this phenomena in the sports world, one of the few places where you can objectively measure a worker's value against others in his profession. But I guess it's human nature to overvalue one's self, whether or not you can presented with evidence to the contrary.
The negative voice inside my head is telling that the Dodgers could be hamstrung for years to come by the massive cost and debt service of buying the club for more than $2B. Do you have any feel for this? How are other owners that paid massively recently for an MLB team (thinking of the Cubs and Rangers specifically) doing financially?
It seems some of the most interesting injury news come out right after you post the latest CD. :) Any take on Chase Utley leaving camp? Does this sound like a real setback or more of a recovery/pain management issue?
Is it fair to penalize the Mets and assume the worst for their apparent downplaying of injuries to stars like Reyes in the past? Or is my anti-Met bias (from spending too much time near Philly) kicking in?
Any updates on David Wright and his availability for Opening Day? When the Mets says everything is fine, it's usually time to panic. :(
Can't see the matrix. Google Docs problem?
Just realized I have seen no Collateral Damage updates on Victor Martinez. Is there any chance he is back this year, even if in a limited or DH role?
I look forward to the day when BP announces that they have signed on Peter Gammons and Joe Morgan as featured writers. :)
This reminds me of when ARod was outed for steroids. One of the ESPN talking heads stated something along the lines of "thank goodness we still have a few clean players to look up to like Cal Ripken" without adding the required suffix "as far as we know."
Absent league-wide testing during that period, we will never know who the "clean" players really were.
Actually, the only change is that Fielder will be *less* valuable in a year or two. If nobody else was willing to pay $23M/year now, they will be even less willing to pay that in a few years when Fielder is closer to his decline phase.
Only that the Phillies should be able to sign him to a shorter term deal than Rollins would accept.
And what rationale is there to allow another team further down the standings a 1-game playoff into the playoffs to potentially knock out a better team as proven over 162 games?
Stupid idea, Bud. If you have to expand the playoffs then make it a real 5-game series. A 1-game baseball playoff would be like an NFL playoff game where each team only gets one possession.
Perhaps there will be a few more signatures on the card saying goodbye to Mr. Loria (one can only hope) ...
Jack Warden also starred in the Problem Child trilogy, so perhaps Ed could be considered a late career renaissance for him.
Does the lack of a mention for Adam Dunn mean that you are "counting him out?"
"Special punishment should be given to those markets (Tampa Bay again) who put a compelling product on the field but still *CAN'T* get the locals to come see a game."
So wishing for an edit button ...
Good article. I'd just point out a few things:
1. There should be a distinction between owners who want to win but either don't how or have forgotten (Daniel Snyder, maybe even *sigh* Al Davis) and those who show a reckless disregard for their team (McCourt, the Wilpons, Jeff Loria as least regarding the Expos).
2. Special gratitude should be given to MLB franchises able to compete despite being at the wrong end of the economic scale (I'm talking to you, Tampa Bay). And those who can't compete (Kansas City, Pittsburgh) should be given some leeway, though there is no excuse for not having at least an interesting product on the field.
3. Special punishment should be given to those markets (Tampa Bay again) who put a compelling product on the field but still get the locals to come see a game.
And I'd like to repeat the thought that you were able to take fantasy news and present it in a way that was interesting even if I had no vested interest in those players. Thanks for making me a bigger baseball fan.
Looking at the final stats for 2010, Jose Reyes / Buster Posey / Delmon Young / Adam Jones all finished below average in drawing walks, but posted VORPs above 30.
Drawing walks is an admirable skill, but being deficient in this area does not automatically mean you "suck." FACT.
There seems to be a divergence of opinions at BP on keeping "name" players like Reyes and Wright. The saber side of the argument says there is no reason to pay to get to a .500 record, therefore blow the whole thing up and plan for the future. The old-timer says that despite the record of the team, marginal revenues are effected by the names of the players on the field.
It would be interesting to see a study whether a non-playoff Mets team with Reyes and Wright would draw enough more over a similar team with league average replacements to justify their higher salaries.
While I understand that some turnover is a necessary thing (and perhaps even a good thing) at BP, I am becoming alarmed at the number of fine contributors here who have left in 2011.
What's going on, BP?
Don't hold back Jay, let us know what you really think about Ned Colletti and the Dodgers.
At the risk of making a fool of myself again, I'm curious about the VORP and WARP being reported for pitchers.
For example, Roy Halladay with a 2.19 ERA and 2.37 SIERA over 53.3 IPs, has accumulated 6.6 VORP and 0.7 WARP so far. This seems quite low for a pitcher who has been fairly dominant so far. A similar case could be made for Jered Weaver, Dan haren, Josh Johnson, etc.
Is there something amiss in these statistics, or do I just not understand the value of starting pitching relative to batters?
Doh! Not a bug, but a feature ... now I get it. I actually want applaud the addition of "season" stats. It used to be a pain to figure out full-season stats for players who changed teams during the course of the year, and now you are doing it for us. Thanks!
Thanks for getting these up. One bug I have found, if I try to add TEAM to the Pitcher reports (ex. Pitcher Season report) the result is no output.
Not many days left in April. Any updates on the availability of statistics for 2011?
Unless they are idiots, the teams executives are already doing what they think is best to maximize the profits from attendance. They may make mistakes from time to time (see the Yankees $2500 home plate seats for an example), but then they should make the necessary corrections.
I'd argue that halving the ticket prices won't double attendance, and then you lose the $200K from fans who were going to show up anyways. I'm sure the Pirates and Indians would love a sellout every night, but what would tickets have to sell for to do - $5? $2? Free? Or perhaps you just lower the prices in the upper deck, but then you have to make sure not to cannibalize sales of more expensive seats.
I guess that I'm just saying that maximizing ticket sales doesn't necessarily maximize team profit, or you would see more teams slashing prices now to fill up their stadium.
In Philadelphia, the Phillies are selling out in the winter - making it almost impossible to plan ahead and discouraging any walk-up crowd. But then you see 3000 - 4000 tickets available for every game on StubHub. And you learn as I have that the best thing to do is wait until the last minute to get tickets.
Perhaps that's part of the reason the Phillies surprised almost everyone by going after Cliff Lee - they know if the aura around the teams fades a bit and fans no longer need to buy tickets in February for an August game (save for StubHub) the attendance in Philly could crater rapidly.
Though his ownership is a bit high for this article, where would Jake Peavy (53% Yahoo, 39.7% ESPN) fit on this list?
When I saw Tim Lincecum's name, I immediately thought of Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure - just a bit off but still effective and entertaining.
In ref to Dee Gordon, 23 isn't exactly that young for a SS prospect. How long should/will he be given to bring his glove work to a major league level? And how much further improvement can be expected at this point?
I'm a bit confused by the current Hit List rankings in that despite being told how a sample size of less than 10 games is nothing and that the Red Sox are still strong favorites to make the playoffs, they are ranked #11 in the list this week. Likewise the Indians are #2 in the List but still only given a 17% chance to make the playoffs.
Perhaps I need an explanation (or a pointer to one if I missed it) on the difference between the Adjusted Standings and the Playoff Odds report.
Thank you for your update on these issues. The lack of information on what's going on behind the scenes at BP can be more frustrating than the lack of the features themselves.
I know what I am missing - any 2011 stats in the Statistics section. After three emails to CS with no response, and no stats more than a week into the season, I am really starting to lose my patience with BP.
Sorry for the absolutely OT comment, but ... what's up with BP Statistics for 2011? One week into the season and the Stats reports show no data for 2011.
In addition, two emails to Customer Service have generated no response. The lack of anywhere else on the site to get information or ask questions about an issue like seems more than a bit customer-unfriendly.
Your comments on King Felix reminded me of how so many at the Worldwide Leader were incensed that the Cy Young would not almost automatically go to the pitcher with the most wins, and why I prefer the baseball analysis here to there. Thanks.
Then your third article can project when the Royals can expect to translate these lower-level riches into anything resembling success at the major league level. :)
Of course the issue with using the PFM is that only players that are projected to get playing time in the majors are included.
The only place to get consolidated info on minor league prospects in the WMS, and as noted above multiple times there *do* seems to have been updates to player data (at least as reflected in the player cards).
Also, the case of Nick Franklin is interesting - as noted above his comparables changed quite dramatically between the WMS and his current player card, but his projected stats for 2011 remain essentially unchanged. ???
I like that. "The Baseball Prospectus 2011 MLB Replacement Level Team!" I almost used the term "All-Stars" but that seems more than a bit inappropriate here.
Then let's replace it with something better, but still objective.
I got sick and tired of Bilas and others saying the ADs and commissioners currently on the NCAA committee needed to be replaced by "basketball people", who would vote in teams on subjective measures such as the "eyeball test." That would guarantee that teams like VCU and Butler would be left out, while major conference schools like Colorado, Alabama, and VTech would take their place.
At this time of the same tale rewritten with VCU basketball players in place of the Yankees could be used on Basketball Prospectus.
So many commentators on ESPN and elsewhere said that teams like VCU, Penn State, and Richmond didn't deserve to be in the NCAA tournament because they didn't pass the "eyeball test", whatever that is. Certainly picking the last few at-large teams is subjective, but credit to the NCAA for using objective measures (RPI, SOS, etc.) to pick schools rather and the hilarious "eyeball index."
I can't find anywhere more appropriate to ask this, but where are the updates to the PECOTA spreadsheet? I'm more than a bit disappointed that there's been no updates since the original February release, and as a result much-requested data such as VORP projections are still MIA.
Actually, at this point a better question is when will the next update be released? Waiting for any updates based on early ST, plus of course the return of VORP.
Concur strongly. For fantasy purposes VORP tends to be a much better measure than TAv or WARP, since most fantasy leagues do not take fielding and park adjustment factors into consideration. Please add this back in real soon, thanks.
Isn't that pretty much up to Grady and the Indians? And so far they haven't tipped their hand (much).
Observing Andy LaRoche, I become more and more disappointed as a Pirates fan that the new administration doesn't appear to have a much better eye for talent than the old one(s).
Receiving LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Charlie Morton, Joel Hanrahan, and Jeff Clement in recent deals isn't inspiring much confidence. Hopefully our luck turns with Tabata or one of the other minor league prospects acquired, but I'm starting to limit my expectations.
The shortest service time qualifying for Super Two recently is two years 130 days. Counting backwards, I'd say that bringing Strasburg up May 23rd would be a risk. Since they've already held him out this long, waiting another week or two makes sense.
Of course, all of these Super Two moves are ridiculous, and the whole issue needs to be addressed in the next contract.
Is the "scout" commenting on Matt Kemp really Ned Colletti? (only half joking)
Per JP, "both catcher and first base." And if Posey mashes at the MLB level, why not maximize his contribution by playing him at 1st occasionally?
I haven't noticed an explanation for the need for new servers (why the current servers couldn't keep up anymore). New data intensive applications, more data to process, or just more subscribers pounding the site?
It seems like the only "skill" Weeks lacks at this time is the ability to stay healthy. I guess this is more an question for UTK, but I wonder how much confidence and trust Macha (or any fantasy managers) can give a player who has never topped 129 games played in aseason.
Marc - an article with the opposite issue - when to cut bait on poor starters like Carlos Lee, David Ortiz, Hunter Pence, Doug Davis, John Maine, etc. - would be interesting.
But at what point is someone like Rodney worth the investment? You may get some saves, but at the expense of a PECOTA prediction of 4.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.
I'm hesitant to drop a quality setup man like Saito or Wheeler for a low end closer (esp. in leagues that count Holds, which seem to be becoming more popular).
Since I am in a league with Holds as a category, and Feliz was my "holds guy," here's one person hoping that Francisco's loss of velocity (and resulting demotion) is temporary.
Am I the only one annoyed that Apple refuses to support Flash on the iPhone (minor inconvenience) and the iPad (major limitation)? That and the lack of any real multitasking prevents me fro jumping on the iPad bandwagon just yet.
DirecTV has a history of treating major sports packages (MLB EI, NFL Sunday Ticket) as a loss leader in order to increase overall subscriber counts. Verizon apparently did the same thing with NFL audio rights. Dish has a history of not being willing to take a loss for these packages, and there's no way Dish would make $100M from its subs for MLB EI.
I guess whether this makes Dish cheap or smart depends on your point of view.
Regarding Dish and MLB Network - many of us Dish subs would love to see this happen. But MLB Network carriage is supposedly tied to carriage of MLB Extra Innings, and so far Dish has refused to pay the $$$ for this. (I could be way off here, but I thought that MLB wanted $100M+ per year for MLB EI.)
A bit OT on discussion above, but fantasy related: I see that a new PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet was released on 03-28, but I have been unable to find any info on what is included with this update. Any info?
I used to sub to the MLB.com Gameday Audio - also $15, handy for indoor offices where 3G is problematic. I was hoping not to have to buy the MLB.com product *and* the iPhone app - but it sounds like I'm out of luck.
MLB (and other major sports) games are usually blacked out on radio internet feeds. Sometime you get lucky and find a feed that isn't blacked out, but for me it's worth $15 to not have to deal with it.
Wow, great UTK timing Will. Thanks.
Will, a bit OT, but will we see a few more UTKs during Spring Training? I'd like to hear your take on Jose Reyes, Brandon Webb, and some of the other early stories coming out of Florida and Arizona. Thanks.
In any of the hitting stats, Pitchers PAs are included (which is good), but there is no way to filter on non-Pitchers only. Adding this filter would simplify how I keep track of position player hitting stats. Thanks.
If we get only one stat, make it "estimated return date". All the other stats just seem to be a means to what people really want to know the vast majority of the time, which is when can an injured player be expected to return to the lineup?
Count me on board with this proposal.
General comment - why play this game on Sunday during the whole state of MLB games? Why not play it Monday afternoon or Tuesday afternoon so that the kids get the stage to themselves for a bit?
I find my iPhone gets hot listening to Gameday Audio for an extended period as well, whether using WiFi or 3G. It's strange considering that I can stream other audio suing Fstream, Pandora, or Slacker without any such issues.
And shame on readers of BP who should be students of the history of major league baseball and realize how the owners basically stood on the throats of the players until the MLBPA was able to extert some influence through Marvin Miller.
I'm not a fan of all that Fehr has stood for (he missed the boat on PEDs) for but I understand that the current attitude of the MLBPA is based on decades of poor behavior shown by the owners.
Oops, above should be $3000/mo. (approx. $18K for the season).
For those fortunate enough to be drafted in the top few rounds or make it to The Show, true. But most of other "professional baseball players" make very modest salaries.
Ex. independent Atlantic League, reccomended max salary $300/mo. during the season.
And as mentioned elsewhere, it's not like NFL fans get cheap tickets due to a weak union.
Or to expand a bit, if you put together the chart of elite pitcher ERA's against elite hitters as mentioned above, who takes the bigger hit - the pitcher's ERA or the batter's OPS?
Would the above data (at least tentatively) support the old baseball that good pitching beats good hitting?
I also wonder why I've never heard "Uh oh, Shawn Merriman was suspended for steroids ... there goes his chance for the NFL Hall of Fame." All I heard at the time was "What will the Chargers do the four weeks he is out?" And he is elected to the 2007 NFL Pro Bowl two months after serving his suspension.
Selective outrage ... gotta love it.
I don't remember much "moral outrage" when spitballer Gaylord Perry was inducted into the Hall of Fame. As I recall his doctoring of baseballs was generally a point of amusement among writers, not a cause for concern or anger. And I guess Sammy would not be denied the HOF if corked bats were his only transgression.
Also, according to an anonymous survey that appeared in the March edition of American Journal of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation, an estimated 12.7% of current NFL players are using PEDs, and 43 NFL players have been suspended under the PED policy in the past four years. (References from the June 03 Philadelphia Daily News.) But nobody ever seems to mention the NFL's PED "problem."
What bothers me is the selective outrage over PEDs in MLB. Other forms of cheating (spitters, corked bats) in baseball are OK, and even if we show more concern for PEDs due to their legal status and potential harm, this concern is apparently limited to MLB only and the NFL gets a free pass. It all just seems incredibly hypocritical to me.
In my post above, I meant to imply (poorly it seems) that the Red Sox contracts mentioned are quite movable, with the possible exception of Drew.
That damn West Coast bias always seem to show itself here at BP. Anyhow, look at the Yankees potential albatrosses:
- ARod, $238M plus incentives for 2009 - 2017
- Sabathia - $152M for 2009-1015
- Texiera - $175M for 2009 - 2016
- Burnett - $82.5M for 2009 - 2013
- Posada - $39.3M for 2009 - 2011
The Red Sox with $42M due to Drew, $25M due Ortiz, $39.1M due Youk, $38.5 due Pedroia, and $30M due Lester seems like misers by comparison.
Another angle on this developing area is how teams / broadcasters will leverage or not leverage local streaming to benefit themselves and undercut competition.
This is particularly true in Philadelphia, where the Phillies and Comcast/Sportsnet Philly have consistently refused any carriage deals with satellite providers Dish Network and DirecTV. I suspect that the Phillies / Comcast will not permit any online setup where satellite customers can see the Phillies without subscribing to Comcast cable service.
Cliff Floyd may be the answer. Reccommended as having "it" by no less a baseball authority than the Huffington Post:
Any expansion of the MLB playoffs would have to include the discussion of shortening the regular season (perhaps back to 152 games). Otherwise MLB would face inevitable weather-related snafus in either mid-March Opening Day games or mid-November World Series games.
Flash ahead to Game 6 of the 2017 World Series, November 14 in Minneapolis' Target Field: *average* low 26 degrees.
UTL (Under the Labrum) would seem an appropriate abbreviation for this procedure, at least in this column.
Sorry that I'm a bit weak in my MLB history, but was there any rational explanation on why Loria decided to plow the Expos into the ground, and even more why MLB rewarded him with the Marlins franchise for this behavior?
I've not read of any traumas that would lead to a suspicion of a concussion. Was there some incident in the recent past that I'm not aware of?
There seems to be a few whispers on the web about serious (season ending) shoulder issues for Soria. When do we begin to take these rumors seriously?
I don't understand why the Yankees (and to some extent Shawn) think its a given that when the economy comes back businesses will be lining up to purchase $2500 tickets.
Philadelphia and Boston sell their best seats behind the plate for two to three time the price of other field level seats, but the Yankees feel that their best seats are worth more than 6x the price of the almost-as-good field level seats for $375. I suspect that as long as the Yankees insist charging $2500 for some seats, those seats will remain mainly empty despite the state of the economy.
Too bad we can't give thumbs up / thumb down ratings to Will's replies here. :)
You should consider this a marketing campaign for Giants ticket sales as much as a premature attempt to garner All-Star glory for Lewis.
So how long until we can begin to discount the small smaple size effect and begin to characterize the new Yankee Stadium as a profound hitters park? Half a season, full season, or more?
Will, you mention that you had previously heard info on Devine but had not "confirmed" it. In general, who provides this confirmation? Official team sources, unofficial team sources, other? Also, how do you decide to either publish the data you have on hand vs. sit on it waiting for further confirmation?