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I love Acuna.
I drafted Acuna.
He K'd 40 times in 115 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AB</span></a> (126 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>) in high-A (FSL)
What's the hurry to promote him to AA? I don't get it.
Bottom of your grid:
1) No Ottavino in the pecking order for the Rockies?
2) <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99823">Jake Barrett</a></span>'s still on the D'backs, I think.
It's not ALL about that.
It was also partly about clearing another 40-man roster spot in advance of the deadline for setting the 40-man for the Rule 5 draft.
A new entry for specialized fantasy leaguers: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104803">Jonathan Holder</a></span>, Yankees.
End of season games when your team is out of the race is sad, not just because the games don't much matter anymore, but because another baseball season is ending, and the cold fall and winter loom ahead.
But it's still baseball, and you can frequently get a bargain on tickets, sometimes a huge bargain on the re-sale market, and hey! It's still a baseball game, being played by professionals trying to win and excel.
The Yankees did not sweep the Rays.
Cingrani blew a save big time the other night, and Iglesias got his first save last night against the same Cards...no muss, no fuss.
Has <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105454">Ronald Acuna</a></span> been put on milk cartons yet?
Any updates on him?
What? No callup article for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58075">Richard Bleier</a></span>? This is an outrage.
OK, maybe not.
How about: What wins baseball games?
Lessom #147 in why the playoffs are a crapshoot now in progress.
The Indians? Really?
What was the point of these articles projecting 2 years into the future? I don't see it. If it was just to keep the writers from being bored, that's not good enough.
If this is a joke, it's not funny.
And jeez, I sure hope it's a joke.
I don't see the link to the values.
The Cubs have every right to do what they're doing. They'd be stupid not to. I don't "shame" intelligent management, if it's within the rules, and this is.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70430">Mookie Betts</a></span> didn't have hype? I seem to remember a lot of hype about him in the off-season between 2013 and 2014.
Well, maybe I follow prospects a lot closer than most fans.
Well, not here, at BP.
I guess I'm not sure what point I'm making, except that I knew a lot about Mookie Betts before the 2014 season even started.
I have Hendricks at $4 in a dinosaur 4x4 Rotisseries, 13-team NL only league. Should I still look to sell? Will he not return $4 in value?
I agree. Not signing Moncada was an unforced blunder.
Even if he winds up busting.
Well, Nova isn't past his peak, and both Sabathia and especially Beltran were hampered by injury, it seems likely to me that the Yankees will see better years from each of them. Tex, A-Rod not getting better? That seems reasonable to me. McCann? Maybe, but I don't think so. All 6 not getting better? Not likely.
You're very likely right about where the Reds will finish, but they probably feel that given where their starting rotation is headed in the near future, they'd rather take the 13% shot at making the playoffs, trying to maximize that chance of making it this year. If that results in a longer rebuilding period because they'll keep their starters rather than rationally trade them off in an effort to shorten the rebuilding phase, that's their choice. It might be coming from ownership rather than Price or Jocketty as well.
So they'll likely pay the price over the next 2-3 years, but if that's what they're doing, then that's sufficient explanation/justification of the Cingrani move, and I say that as someone who has him for $5 in my fantasy league, and now will very likely cut him rather than keep him for this season.
The first two backup starters for the Yankees are apparently Adam Warren and Esmail Rogers, both listed as relievers in their depth chart.
From Rotoworld, March 2nd:
Cubs manager Joe Maddon said Monday that Kyle Hendricks is a lock for the starting rotation.
Hendricks posted an excellent 2.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 47/15 K/BB ratio over 80 1/3 frames (13 starts) last season with the Cubs. It was an easy call for Maddon to commit a rotation spot to the 25-year-old righty, who should carry decent value in most standard fantasy leagues.
Good luck, Jason. Thanks for Raimel Tapia, whatever his future turns out to be.
Never mind, he was back last night after not playing since last Wednesday. 3-5 with a HR. See you later today.
Where is Raimel Tapia?
Haven't seen his name in the boxscores in a couple of days. Any word on injuries?
Cubs should trade Rock to the Boulder City Giants.
The Stanton quote was so impressive, it got listed twice?
Well, maybe it was worth repeating, at that.
How did the Yankees win and see their 1-day playoff% go down?
Answer: they didn't, it actually went up 0.4%, so I have no idea what that -1.6% is doing there.
I recognize this, which is why I cited two park adjusted stats, OPS+ and ERA+, even though they're not created by BP.
My reply was meant for the post above yours, not yours.
The Yanks home park is not the park producing the most home runs per game in the majors this season. In fact, through last night's games, it ranks 9th. In 2011, it was 4th. In 2010, it was 3rd. Only in the 1st season of it's existence, 2009, was it 1st.
In this, my necessary reply, I use actual data, so that I don't look dumb by making an assertion that's full of it.
You know, like stating Yankee Stadium is a joke without any evidence beyond my own anecdotal observation to back it up.
Did a quick check myself for last year's postseason.
Percentage of runs scored on home runs, 2011 Regular season: 34.4%
Percentage of runs scored on home runs, 2011 Post-season: 41.5%
Several different answers to your challenge:
Q1: Which team leads MLB in home runs?
A: The Yankees with 112.
Q2: Which team leads MLB in home runs at home?
A: The Yankees with 58.
Q3: Which teams leads MLB in home runs on the road?
A: The Yankees with 54.
Runs allowed on the roard, per game:
New York Yankees: 4.00
Seattle Mariners: 5.09
Point being, the high-HR characteristic of the new Yankee Stadium hurts the team's pitchers just as it helps their hitters.
OPS+ and ERA+ may not be your cup of team, but:
OPS+: Yankees 109, Mariners 92
ERA+: Yankees 114, Mariners 86
The Mariners have had 4 or 5 extreme offensive performances on the road, including back to back games of 21 and 10 in Arlington, and back to back games of 12 and 10 in Arizona, two other hitter's parks. When the Mariners played their series in Yankee Stadium, they scored 10 runs in 3 games.
He's right on the edge. I did a quick and dirty search on BRef, the criteria was that the player played at least 75% of his career games at catcher and then ranked those players by BWAR.
There are 20 such players with a BWAR greater than 30. Posada is 10th; right above him in 9th, 8th, and 7th, are Gabby Hartnett, Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey, all of whom are in the Hall. Piazza is 6th. Right below Posada are Wally Schang, Thurman Munson and Bill Freehan. None of them are in the Hall, and only Freehan has a shot, in my opinion.
Joe Mauer is 14th. There are two catchers below Posada who are in the Hall; Roy Campanella, whose career was shortened by discrimination at the front end and the car accident at the back end, and Ernie Lombardi, a better hitter and a much more immobile catcher.
It's not quite that simple, Posada is at 44.9 WAR, and the 3 below him are all between 43 and 44 WAR, while the 3 above him are at 50, 51 and 54 WAR.
He did play for 4 title teams, but his postseason record is mediocre at best. So did he carry the Yanks to titles, or was he carried by others? The Hall of Fame Monitor and Standards also mark him as close but not in. 4 of his top 10 comps are in the Hall, but one of them is Joe Gordon.
So as I say, in my opinion, he's on the edge, maybe a hair shy of the Hall.
I'm fine with the selection of Kershaw. It's real simple; Lee, Halladay and Kershaw are about evenly matched, so let's minimize the difference and call it a three-way tie.
But then, Kershaw wins the pitching triple crown pitching for a substantially inferior team (albeit in a substantially better pitcher's park), and for me, that's enough. Kershaw is the Cy Young winner, and a deserving one, even if by an overwhelming margin.
Ooff, said that backwards; Ellsbury is contributing to a pennant run, and Bautista isn't.
Well, that's one way to put it. The correct way is that Bautista is contributing to a pennant of pennant run, and Ellsbury isn't, and there's nothing more "valuable" in baseball, because the goal isn't to lead the lead in WAR, it's to win the pennant.
Now, if you're asking me, before the season starts, who's more valuable to the average team, based on their performance, then it's Bautista. But if you're asking who's more valuable to the real life pennant race, it's Ellsbury.
This is exactly what I'm trying to say, especially the last paragraph. Thanks.
Well, inasmuch as both of them are roughly 6 WAR, and the Sox are 9 games up on Tampa, I'd say each of them are providing a real cushion against a dogfight for the wild card.
As for Bautista, there's no doubt he's having a tremendous season, but, as Branch Rickey said about Ralph Kiner, "We finished last with you, we can finish last without you." Bautista's value to the Jays (outside of whatever drawing card he may or may not be) is that he's keeping them from fighting with the Orioles for last place.
OK, that's overstated by a lot, but even though Bautista's having a great, great year, according to the way I judge value to the team's effort in the particular season, it's just not that "valuable".
fWar has him a slender 0.5 WAR up on Ellsbury, 0.7 up on Pedroia, and 1.2 up on Granderson. bWAR has him 0.7 up on Verlander, 1.4 up on Pedroia, and 1.6 up on Ellsbury.
I'm guessing you mean career PA, not just 2011.
The disagreement is over the meaning of "valuable". I certainly don't think Dawson should've won in 1987. When Ripken won in 1991, he was 4 WAR better than anyone else. This is not the case with Bautista. If the other MVP candidates from the contenders (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Granderson for fWAR, add in Gonzalez for bWAR, and add Verlander in in both cases) can stay within 1-2 WAR of Bautista, then I wouldn't vote him the MVP.
To me the "most valuable" thing in baseball is winning and making the postseason, or at least staying in contention most of the way. If you have a different opinion, that's fine, but it's an opinion, not a fact.
The Pirates just promoted Alvarez yesterday, and he played last night. Oops.
Extra Credit to the St. Louis Cards of 2006, whose regular rotation that season featured:
1. Jason Marquis, 14-16, 6.02, ERA+ 74, bWAR -1.9, who did not pitch in the postseason.
2. Jeff Suppan, a career mediocrity having what for him was a good season, 12-7, 4.12, ERA+ 108, bWAR 1.1
3. Jeff Weaver half-time in the Cards' regular season rotation. He went 3-10, 6.29 for the Angels, then traded to the Cards in mid-season, he "improved" to 5-4, 5.18 ERA for a total of 8-14, 5.76, ERA+ 79, overall bWAR of -1.0.
4. Anthony Reyes, who went 5-8, 5.06, ERA+ 88, bWAR 0.3
and to round things out...
5. 13 starts from Sidney Ponson, 4-4, 5.24 ERA, ERA+ 88, bWAR 0.1
These 5 men started 126 of the 162 regular season games for the Cards that year, and 11 of the 16 post-season games. I can't think of a worse rotation that ever won a title. I doubt there's any very close to it.
Roy White, anyone? Paul Blair?
Oh, that's directed at the thrust of the article, not the comment above.
I think the "pace" column, which is called "Left", is incorrectly calculated. It appears to me that instead of correctly calculating and additional 51% of the season to go, you took each team's current SB total and multiplied it by 51% to get the stolen base projections for the rest of the season.
If I understand what you've done correctly, then, in addition to the five you cited, the following teams will all top their SB totals from 2010: Reds, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rangers and Nationals.
This means 20 teams will top their SB totals from 2010, and SB will have gone up this year, which is what would normally be expected when other forms of offense drop off. And indeed, as near as I can figure it, the 30 teams project to combine for 3283 SB for the 2011 season, as opposed to a total of 2959 from last season. This is a SB increase of nearly 11% from a year ago.
Completely disagree. Cashman may not have handled it the quietest way, but I don't see anything really wrong with telling the truth about a playing making a lot of money who is also severly underperfoming the value of the contract and who throws a hissy fit at having his role diminished by refusing to play in a game at home against the teams arch-rival.
This is why Posada has apologized to Girardi and Cashman, and not the other way around.
Colon's best chance for success is if people keep saying he has no chance.
Re: Matt Wieters.
I give you...Jason Varitek, who was an all-universe prospect coming out of Georgia Tech. Taken 14th overall by the Mariners in 1994.
I hadn't seen hype on a college catcher like Wieters since Varitek, also a switch-hitting power guy.
When Varitek was going into his age-25 year, he had floundered at AA for two seasons, and would flounder at AAA in his age-25 year. Played the whole year (except for 1 at bat) at AAA, then got traded to the Red Sox (along with Derek Lowe!) at mid-season for the immortal Heathcliff Slocumb.
(Hey...maybe the Marlins or somebody can trade for Wieters (and Jake Arriata, or something) for say, Jose Ceda.)
Anywho, it's way, way early to close the book on Wieters. Catchers tend to develop later than other position players, in any case.
Liriano and Morneau, maybe. Plus a good prospect, like Revere.
Make it Kershaw, Loney and Gordon, and the Cards might consider it for awhile. Before rejecting.
Determined or crazy? Or crazy determined? Just as long as he's not determined crazy. Well, he has only one life and one set of talents, so it's his call.
Either way, good luck, Mark.
Well, then, put BIS' +/- in Jones' corner as well, at least in the corners. +2 runs in 101 innings in left; +5 runs in 397 innings in right. -3 runs in 125 innings in center, though.
RZR says more or less the same thing: .895 RZR in left (ML Avg was about .870) and a rate of about 54 plays OOZ per season (ML avg was about 66 or so). .907 RZR in right (ML avg was about .900) with a rate of about 69 plays out of zone (ML avg was about 75).
In both left and right his arm was rated as a plus by both UZR and +/-, so the original poster has some support for his position here.
The Sox are the clear winners of the off-season. I hereby award them the January World's Championship. Now, let's see how Tampa and the Yankees counter, and let's see how everything plays out in the realm of real games.
Maybe. I dunno, really.
The 10 year forecast shows Halladay becoming mediocre no later than age 38. If Lee gets to 38 in as good a shape, the team that signs him will do all right.
Werth; but only because the Nationals are hurt much worse if he tanks at the back end than the Yankees would be.
Citing Game 1 of the World Series about how Lee can morph from elite to very hittable? OK, you've got that game on one side, along with Game 5 of the 2009 World Series where he ran out of gas in the 8th after 7 strong innings, and then, on the other side is his other 8 postseason starts, in which he K'd 73 and walked 4 in 64 2/3 innings. Against good teams. At the highest levels of pressure. And comparing him to AJ Burnett is, well, looney. Burnett's never had a year nearly as good as Lee's 2008, or his 2010.
Lee is certainly a longevity risk, and a big one, but I don't see any reason to doubt he can continue to pitch like this in the short-term (2 or 3 years).
Both of them have three 7 WAR win seasons in a row, more or less (Fangraphs).
Aggregate: Halladay 21.4, Lee 21.1
If you can even be mentioned in the same breath as Halladay without looking foolish, you're a helluva pitcher.
He was thinking that Cruz was 1-5 off Robertson in his career with 3 K's. I'll bet he wasn't thinking that after working the count to 2-2 with 5 straight curves, that the fastball Posada called would be delivered middle-in, thigh-high. (See Brooks' FX K zone: http://tinyurl.com/24x2dqa)
Seems to me the Mets already have one regular OF too many already.
I would argue one little thing.
The Yankees' projection in runs scored shows a 60 run drop. OK, this is possible, taking into account the potential dropoffs at DH, LF, SS and C. But there'll be some improvement at 3rd (barring suspensions) and CF. OK, I can live with the falloff of 60 runs there, though I think it's more likely to be 30 or 40 runs.
The Yankees' projection is also based on the fact that Yankees' run prevention only improves by 4 runs. I assume this is because the system projects backsliding by Pettitte, Rivera, the bullpen, and Jeter's defensive improvement, because the change from Hughes/Wang/Mitre/Gaudin to Vazquez is worth at least 25 runs even if Vazquez' ERA is about 4.70, plus the defensive improvement from Melky/Damon/Gardner to Granderson/Gardner/Winn/Thames is worth about another 15-20 runs.
In my opinion, the Yanks' run prevention improves by at least 30 runs, and that's worth about 3 games more in the standings.
OK, it's a modest quibble, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. For now, anyway.
That the Yankees might score 70 fewer runs than last year...it's possible. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.
But that they'll allow 13 runs more than last year...I don't see it at all. Their pitching and defense has to be improved. I can see that Pettitte is likely to drop off, but the other major staff dropoffs (Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain and Robertson)...nope, don't see it at all, especially with the improved OF defense at two positions.
Probably ordering the lineup by overall productivity of all players listed there, not just the starters.
In other words, PECOTA notices that Ellsbury is OK, whereas Varitek is not OK (bordering on bad), and Varitek gets 35% of the distributed time at catcher.
Sorry; made a mistake above. It's Jose Parra, not Manny, who is still active.
That's Paciorek with 5.
One interesting case tied for 2nd with 4: Manny Parra, who had 4 career PA with two sac bunts and two walks. (Lifetime OBA = 1.000, lifetime BAVG does not exist, as he never had an AB)
One interesting case tied for 3rd with 3: Estaban Yan, who went 1-1 with 1 HR and 1 sac bunt for the Rays in 2000, and then went 1-1 with a single for the Cards 3 years later. At 12 seasons, his has to be the longest career with a BAVG of 1.000, an OBA of 1.000, and a SPCT over 1.000 (2.500).
I'm too lazy to check.
Blown call on Mauer's double that wasn't gets the headlines, completely concealing Meriweather's completely random K zone.
Not likely; the Yanks have their share of analysts. I'm pretty sure they've heard of ballpark effects.
I was going to claim the top spot for the Yankees, but I cannot defeat this logic.
About the Yankees-Mets interesting "fact":
Mets have not been blanked in the first two games; they got a run Friday night on a Gary Sheffield solo HR as one of their 3 hits. The Elias Bureau note you referenced refers only to the fact they've been held to 4 hits in the two games, not that they've been shutout twice.
The Mets' situation/performance is bad enough, no need to make it worse than it has been.
Check; check, check.
Is this on?
Well, except for the fact that his ability to miss bats was actually IMPROVING, little by little, year by year, up until he got hurt last season.
The Yanks have confidence in Edwar, but not in a key spot, and if you've seen his numbers in high leverage situations vs. medium and low, you know the reason why.
No, Coke, with only 1 bad outing before this, is an acceptable move for Pena. It just didn't work. The 2nd hit was a bloop that fell in. The 3rd was a pounded double that scored an insurance run, but really, once the bloop falls in and they're down a run, with Soria looming in the 9th, there's not much of a chance anyway.
I did a quick check myself a week or two ago when this topic was first being discussed in the papers, and I believe Larry Bowa, 1980 Phillies, is the last regular shortstop who was 34 or older for a championsip team. (Bowa didn't turn 35 until December, 1980.)
Jeter is 34 and turns 35 on June 26th.
To get one older than Jeter, I think you have to go back to Pee Wee Reese, 1955, when he was 36 (he turned 37 on 7/23/55).
\"This effort was not without casualties. Jamie Moyer’s card has been removed. He’s too ancient and weird for us to predict any aspect of his performance this year with PECOTA. Our official fantasy advice would be: don’t draft him.\"
If it\'s all the same to you guys, I\'ll just keep Moyer at $1. Far more likely he\'ll be worth at least $5-8 than $-10.
Picked him up on a minimum FAAB bid last year. The silly folk in my league don\'t want a floor salary for FAAB pickups, even though I and one other owner keep pointing out the market distortion problem.
And if I may stretch a point way beyond breaking and into another dimension, that type of greed is what\'s wrong with this country; everyone wants something for nothing, or at least the chance to steal something for nothing, and would rather keep the chance for that alive than do the hard work necessary to yield consistent, steady profit.
(This complete sermon available for $1 on Youtube; right between the snake oil and x-ray glasses, just above the fake doggie poop.)
Just for funsies...here\'s the PECOTA line for Pavano for 2005:
28 GS, (No W-L record as part of PECOTA in 2005), 174.2 IP, 199 H, 42 BB, 109 K, 23 HR, 4.64 ERA, VORP 21.3 (Not sure how to translate that to SNWL)
Breakout: 12%, Improve 47%, Collapse 20% (No attrition or comps given.)
Look, I guess it\'s pretty much certain that Burnett\'s not going to be worth the money they\'re going to pay him, and there\'ll be at least one or two seasons of the 5 that he\'s going to bust on them, but I don\'t think it\'ll be Pavano II either. The K rate is the major difference, and the second important things is that Burnett isn\'t coming from the Florida park and the NL East. He already knows about how tough it is in that division.
Uhhh....guys...about Burnett...Does anyone, fans, the BP staff, anyone, actually pay attention to BP\'s own stuff?
Burnett\'s PECOTA for this season from THE book: 13-9, 30 GS, 197 IP, 187 H, 73 BB, 178 K, 19 HR, WHIP 1.32, ERA 3.82, SNWL 4.82.
You know, in the AL East, that\'s uh...pretty good, and it\'s his 50% projection, isn\'t it? I mean, it\'s not really worth $16.5 million, I suppose, but it does reflect his last 3 seasons with reasonable accuracy. The Yanks do have the money to burn, and at least they picked a pitcher who can strike guys out at a nice rate this time; one with a fairly decent record over the last 5 years, not just 1 or 2.
And then there\'s the comparables: Jack Morris...now he was pretty good, I think... and Mike Scott, he was OK for a couple of years there...Roger Clemens had some unnatural assistance, but he was considered to be still decent in his 1st decline at age 31...and Joe Dobson wasn\'t great, but he was pretty darn good. All 4 of these guys were good at 31 for at least 2-3 more seasons.
And finally, there\'s the BICA percentages...Breakout: 33%, that\'s a 1/3 chance he\'ll be 20% or more BETTER than 2008; Improve 69%...I havn\'t checked thoroughly, but that\'s gotta be one of the highest Imp% numbers in the whole darn book...Collapse is 8%, and that seems pretty darn low for a starter, and Attrition is 12%...which is exactly the same number Johan Santana\'s at.
Now, if everyone\'s judging off his character, that\'s fine, but they better be right about that character.n His track record? He hasn\'t had one of those completely lost seasons since 2003. I mean, every comment I read about this contract from BP writers and subscribers says \"Disaster of Biblical Proportions\" and maybe they\'re right. But doesn\'t it give anyone pause that all the PECOTA tools point in the other direction?
I saw Rice play. He was a Hall of Fame hitter. For 3 seasons, 1977-9. For those 3 years he was feared, and it carried over for a couple of years after. Then from 1980 to about 1986 he was a Hall of Really Goood Hitter. The last 3 years of his career, he was Hall of Didn\'t He Used To Be A Really Hitter?
I leave it up to you to decide if 4 great seasons, and 8 really good ones, and 3 lousy ones, combined with mediocre defense, at best, and at a low priority defensive position, is a Hall of Famer.