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Scooter Hotz
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/2775
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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Top 2: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70335">Trevor Bauer</a></span>, then <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Erasmo+Ramirez">Erasmo Ramirez</a></span>, in that order.

May 24, 2017 7:11 AM on Week 8
 
Scooter Hotz
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Garneau has more value than Hanigan, but neither is much to write home about. It looks like Murphy might be out a little longer than originally expected, though.

May 12, 2017 3:24 PM on Week 6
 
Scooter Hotz
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I always lean on grabbing the extra plate appearances over preserving the rate stats in deep -only leagues, but that's just a preference, not a hard and fast rule.

May 12, 2017 3:23 PM on Week 6
 
Scooter Hotz
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Barring an injury to one of the players ahead of him on the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/">depth chart</a>, I don't think he's going to play much. I don't think any of his tools are loud enough to make much of an impact in any category with limited playing time.

May 11, 2017 9:40 AM on Week 6
 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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You're welcome.

May 11, 2017 9:37 AM on Week 6
 
Scooter Hotz
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It doesn't seem like either Conley or Turner will be getting any starts over the next 2-3 weeks. Beyond that time frame, I think Conley is the more likely of the two to get regular starts at some point during the rest of the season since he seems to be in the minors to work on some specific things as a starter. When he returns to the majors, it sure seems like it will be as a starter. On the other hand, the Nats seem happy to keep Turner in the bullpen except in extreme circumstances, like needing an emergency starter when Strasburg had to go on the paternity list.

May 11, 2017 9:37 AM on Week 6
 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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He is. Busy week, stayed up too late writing this. I'll have it fixed.

Apr 27, 2017 6:48 AM on Week 4
 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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You are correct. I sent an email to editing requesting a change.

Apr 26, 2017 7:46 AM on Week 4
 
Scooter Hotz
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I love <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105437">Ian Happ</a></span>. I have him in my NL-only league and I wish I had him in more leagues. However, in NL-only leagues like mine, there is a legitimate concern that the Cubs will trade him to an AL team like they did last year with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104180">Gleyber Torres</a></span>. I had Torres in my farm system on that same NL-only team when he was traded. That hurt. In mixed leagues, this isn't a problem.

 
Scooter Hotz
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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49545">Adam Rosales</a></span> since it looks like he'll get more playing time than anyone else.

Apr 19, 2017 5:25 PM on Week 3
 
Scooter Hotz
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Nope, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69158">Jett Bandy</a></span> is still playing.

Apr 19, 2017 9:45 AM on Week 3
 
Scooter Hotz
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Motter's recent power binge doesn't seem likely to be sustainable since he has never shown much home run power throughout his minor league career. He is 27 years old and has never hit more than 16 homers in a minor league season. Plus, it looks like Segura will be back this week, so Motter's playing time is about to dry up.

Apr 19, 2017 8:01 AM on Week 3
 
Scooter Hotz
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My column, The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/deep_league_report/">Deep League Report</a>, focuses on deep AL-only and NL-only leagues. However, there are several other fantasy columns at Baseball Prospectus that cover mixed leagues: - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/free_agent_watch/">Free Agent Watch</a> - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/the_stash_list/">The Stash List</a> - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/expert_FAAB_review/">Expert FAAB Review</a> (covers transactions made in mixed, AL-only and NL-only expert leagues) - The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/closer_report/">Closer Report</a> - <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/fantasy_starting_pitcher_plann/">Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner</a>

Apr 19, 2017 7:56 AM on Week 3
 
Scooter Hotz
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I wouldn't keep CarGo because of the risk of trade to the NL. I'd lean towards Herrera and Baez, but I'm OK with a considerable amount of risk, and as you point out, Baez still has a lot of playing time risk this season. Franco is safer for playing time but doesn't have as high a ceiling as Baez.

Mar 15, 2017 1:23 PM on National League Hitters
 
Scooter Hotz
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No price difference, I'd go with d'Arnaud. He's a lot more likely to provide non-zero value this year. Especially if you're talking about the starting role in a 1-catcher league or the #1 catcher job in a 2-catcher league.

Mar 15, 2017 1:12 PM on National League Hitters
 
Scooter Hotz
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No worries. My AL-only and NL-only home leagues use the same schedule, auctioning a week into the season. And nobody bats 1.000 when it comes to buying closers.

 
Scooter Hotz
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No one is saying anything remotely like that, Robotey. Those dollar figures next to the names at the end of the article are clearly the 2016 earnings for the player listed, not a 2017 bid limit. The first commenter mentioned non-closer RPs going for more than $2, and I think Neris should fall into that category, but nowhere near $13 unless something drastic changes between ow and the end of Spring Training. In his most recently published bid limits, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/mike_gianella">Mike Gianella</a> had Neris at $4, and that seems about right to me.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Deep NL-only and AL-only leagues. Sometimes it's because the buyer thinks this reliever will take the closer's role from a shaky incumbent, sometimes it's because the strikeouts and dominant rate stats are worth it on their own. While there is a lot of variability in who these guys are year to year, there have been a few reliably dominant non-closing relievers over the last few years, but the best of them (<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49775">Dellin Betances</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a></span>) have been in the American League. The impact of the strikeouts and rate stats that a dominant non-closing reliever can have on a roto team's stats has been increasing as the number of innings thrown by starters has been decreasing. As my colleague <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/george_bissell">George Bissell</a> has pointed out several times this offseason, the number of starting pitchers who reach the 200 inning mark in a season has been decreasing for years. 70 dominant innings make a bigger impact when your starters average 180 innings each than when they average 205 innings each.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Each BP author gets one comment about Dansby's hair per season. That was mine. As for my hairline, I'm doing fine. Just took a desk selfie and made it my Twitter profile pic if you want to check for yourself. I'm no prize, but for the moment, I've got plenty of hair.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Yeah, weird that it didn't get much play. I mean, I know the home run rate spiked and all, but 215 is a lot.

 
Scooter Hotz
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I sent this in to be fixed and it looks like it's correct now. Thanks for pointing it out. I appreciate it.

 
Scooter Hotz
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If I had to pick between Forsythe and Walker for 2017, I'd lean towards Forsythe. I'm a little worried about Walker's health.

 
Scooter Hotz
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I agree. Hansen's speed is intriguing but he's not a lock to hit enough to secure a starting spot if he gets a shot.

 
Scooter Hotz
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You're right, Phillips and Zobrist are old. Phillips is a trade risk given his age, the fact that he is in the last year of his contract and the fact that the Reds are likely to be trading veterans for young players at the deadline. In NL-only and AL-only leagues, any player who could be traded is a risk to traded out of the the league, making the rest of his contributions worthless to his roto owners. Of course, Phillips can veto any trade as a 10-5 guy, and has done so already. I don't think Harrison is much of a playing time risk since I think he's better than Frazier. I also think that Harrison's defensive versatility will keep him in the lineup even if he isn't playing the same position every day. Hernandez is definitely a risk to lose playing the time once Crawford is promoted, but Galvis is just as likely to be the one pushed aside by the Phillies' top prospect. The Phillies could also move one of Hernandez or Galvis to alleviate their glut in the middle infield. I agree that Wong could lose playing time if he doesn't come out of the gates strong to either Gyorko or Peralta or even Adams if the Cards choose to solve a problem by moving Carpenter from first base back to second base. I don't think Panik is likely to lose playing time to Nunez since Nunez is expected to be the starter at third and Gillaspie isn't nearly as good as either Panik or Nunez.

 
Scooter Hotz
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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58915">Logan Forsythe</a></span> was not considered for either of the tables in this article. For Table 1, he would not have been auctioned in any NL-only leagues since he was in the AL at the time. For Table 2, he did not have any earnings in NL-only leagues since he spent the entire season in the AL. That said, in AL-only leagues, he went for an average price of $14, which would have placed him in a tie for 9th with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45437">Howie Kendrick</a></span> in Table 1. In an AL-only context, he earned $16, which would have placed him in a tie for 9th with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49024">Neil Walker</a></span>. Comparisons like this are flawed since the player pools in each league were different and the in-season context of a given stat line differs from league to league. These marks are good ballpark figures for determining how Forsythe would have stacked up in NL-only leagues, though.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Adams is a pretty big risk to find himself on the bench to start the season. That's why he won't be expensive at auction. If he was expected to play 150+ games, his price would reflect that and be significantly higher. I didn't pick him as a lock to put up a monster season, I picked him as a cheap upside play who needs a few things to break right for him to provide value.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Funny, I had that same thought about Wieters while I was writing this piece.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Care to be more specific?

Jan 13, 2017 11:28 AM on National League Catchers
 
Scooter Hotz
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The Dodgers should be in the same boat this year with Urias still on an innings limit and a back end of the rotation full of performance and injury risks. However, you should note that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=32842">Joe Blanton</a></span> is a free agent and might not be a Dodger on Opening Day. In general, looking for wins from relief pitchers is not an optimal strategy. Relievers need a fortuitously timed lead change to get a win. The only leagues where you might want to look for wins from bullpen guys are very deep leagues, and even then, to paraphrase <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/joe_sheehan">Joe Sheehan</a>, variance will often swamp any well-conceived plans. If you're in a deep league, you should definitely consider the win potential of your relief options, but you should do so with the understanding that the success rate on your selections will likely be low, no matter how well researched and well reasoned those selections are. It's not you, it's just the nature of the category.

Jan 05, 2017 8:04 AM on A Deeper Dive: Wins
 
Scooter Hotz
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At this point in the season, it depends on where you are in your categories. If your in a tight race with your rate stats but don't have much ground to gain or lose in counting stats (W,K), then skip the Baltimore starts. If you're locked into your spots in the standings with regards to your rate stats but could move up or down in your counting stats, then start him in Baltimore. It's all about the specific gain/loss proposition in specific categories in September.

Sep 19, 2016 7:39 AM on Week 24
 
Scooter Hotz
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It does look like Chen will get two starts next week. When this article was published, Chen's return from the DL was uncertain. Now it looks like the Marlins have decided that Chen is ready to return on Monday. That means <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70441">Jake Esch</a></span>, listed in the Consider category above, won't get any starts this week, and Chen will get two home starts against the Nationals and the Braves. I'd put Chen in the Consider category because it's unclear how deep into each game he'll be able to go and because his injury could recur.

Sep 18, 2016 7:36 AM on Week 24
 
Scooter Hotz
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It takes more than a game or two for me to think that a mechanical change is significant enough to consider. With a sample size that small, it's impossible to unpack whether a change in performance is attributable to a mechanical change or just variance.

Sep 18, 2016 7:30 AM on Week 24
 
Scooter Hotz
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Question away. I don't like most starters in Coors, especially ones with mid-rotation profiles. A lot of Anderson's success at home relative to the road is due his 0.9 HR/9 in Coors compared to his 1.2 HR/9 on the road. It seems unlikely that, in the long run, any pitcher can have a significantly lower HR/9 at Coors than they do everywhere else. I also don't like that fact that in both starts, he's facing a better starter (<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Carlos+Martinez">Carlos Martinez</a></span> for the Cardinals, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36959">Rich Hill</a></span> for the Dodgers) and a better team than his team. That said, in a single game, anything can happen. Maybe Anderson really will be hat rare individual who posts a better pitching line in Coors than he does everywhere else in the long run. I just don't want to bet on that based on 101 innings. If you like Anderson this week, by all means, pick him up and start him.

Sep 16, 2016 1:28 PM on Week 24
 
Scooter Hotz
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It's possible. There hasn't been anything definitive news one way or the other so far. Most sites are still listing Cole as a two-start starter next week and aren't listing Ross as a projected starter for any games next week, so I'd say there's maybe a 75 percent chance Cole makes two starts next week. It's a fluid situation, though, so keep your eyes peeled.

Sep 16, 2016 7:25 AM on Week 24
 
Scooter Hotz
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It does not look like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70753">Dylan Bundy</a></span> will have two starts this week. As noted in the article, it looks like Baltimore is going with a six-man rotation this week. In a seven-game week, that means they'll have only one two-start starter, the guy who starts today. That guy getting two starts this week is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58453">Wade Miley</a></span>. Bundy is scheduled to start tomorrow, Tuesday 9/13, and his next start after that is scheduled for Monday 9/19, which falls outside of the current transaction week. If you need two starts from Bundy to make him worth rostering this week, don't roster him (unless the Orioles announce a change in plans between now and the time that rosters lock, of course).

Sep 12, 2016 7:31 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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You're right, it looks like the Pirates have decided to give Taillon a little more rest. That makes <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49832">Ivan Nova</a></span> a two-start starter this coming week. I'd put Nova in the Start category based on his solid performance since he joined the Pirates.

Sep 09, 2016 8:48 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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Neither? Fister is currently scheduled to start Monday at home against the Rangers. He'll only be making one tart next week, though, since the Astros have 6 games and it looks like they've gone to a 6-man rotation with the addition of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Paulino">David Paulino</a></span>. And you're right, Fister has been pretty bad recently, making him a risky play.

Sep 09, 2016 8:45 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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Multiple sources I've seen are projecting <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45595">Jason Vargas</a></span> to reclaim a spot in the rotation on Tuesday against Oakland, taking <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56334">Dillon Gee</a></span>'s spot in the rotation. A lot could happen between now and then, though. Vargas might not be ready physically, the Royals could decide to use a six-man rotation, etc. However, it does look like Dillon Gee won't get two starts next week, and might not even get one.

Sep 09, 2016 6:45 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Steven+Wright">Steven Wright</a></span> has no starts this coming week, and might not have any more starts this season: https://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/773309571649540096 It looks like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=71010">Jharel Cotton</a></span> will only make one start this coming week, Tuesday on the road against the Royals and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45595">Jason Vargas</a></span>. His next start after that looks to be scheduled for Monday 9/19 at home against the Astros and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Paulino">David Paulino</a></span>. As I mentioned above, the A's look like they'll be using a six-man rotation for the time being, which means that despite having seven games this week, they'll only have one two-start starter. This week, that two-start starter is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57701">Ross Detwiler</a></span>.

Sep 09, 2016 6:36 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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You're right. It looks like I didn't complete my thought there last night, as I intended to say that he's been great in the strikeouts category. He's got a terrific 11.3 K/9 thanks to 195 K in 155.3 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a>, but he's also issued 60 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> for a 3.5 BB/9 and has allowed 163 hits, more than one per inning. Definitely not great overall, but a good target if you need strikeouts and don't have much on the line in your rate stats.

Sep 09, 2016 6:18 AM on Week 23
 
Scooter Hotz
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Yes, it now looks like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70762">Robert Stephenson</a></span> will get two starts this coming week after the Reds reshuffled things. I prefer any of the three pitchers you mentioned in one start to Stephenson in two starts. In 136.7 innings in Triple-A, Stephenson has a 7.9 K/9 and a 4.7 BB/9. That's not enough strikeouts and way too many walks.

Sep 03, 2016 9:49 AM on Week 22
 
Scooter Hotz
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I'm still seeing multiple sources listing Verlander as the projected starter on Monday, not Tuesday. That puts him on track for a second start next Sunday.

Sep 03, 2016 9:41 AM on Week 22
 
Scooter Hotz
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In deep AL-only leagues, yes, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56334">Dillon Gee</a></span> could be worth a look, although anyone appearing in the Other Options section of the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/deep_league_report/">Deep League Report</a> necessarily comes with big question marks. The league context in the Deep League Report isn't the same as the league context of the SP Planner, which isn't specifically tailored to deep leagues.

Aug 29, 2016 4:27 PM on Week 22
 
Scooter Hotz
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It doesn't look like the A's are going to give him much playing time. Before being sent down today, Alcantara had spent a week with the big league club and only made two appearances, both as a pinch hitter. He'll probably be recalled when rosters expand in September, but it doesn't look to me like he'll play much unless something happens that shakes up Oakland's lineup.

Aug 29, 2016 4:21 PM on Week 22
 
Scooter Hotz
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It looks like the Dodgers are leaning towards starting Hill on normal rest on Sunday, making it a two start week. It's not definite, though, especially considering that Hill's injury history. I'd guesstimate that there's a 75% chance Hill will get a second start this coming Sunday against the Padres.

Aug 28, 2016 7:55 PM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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So, Toronto won't have anyone starting twice this week unless they reshuffle their rotation.

Aug 28, 2016 9:11 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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The Blue Jays are using a six-man rotation this week. It looks like they'll go with this sequence: Monday: Estrada Tuesday: Happ Wednesday: Sanchez Thursday: off Friday: Liriano Saturday: Stroman Sunday: Dickey

Aug 28, 2016 9:11 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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Did <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/greg_wellemeyer">Greg Wellemeyer</a> do that? I read a few of his recent ones and it didn't seem like he did. I tried to provide explanations for all of the pitchers I thought were interesting, pitchers on the cusp between different categories, or pitchers with recent changes i their performance.

Aug 28, 2016 9:08 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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I'm basing that rating on his performance over the course of the full year rather than his admittedly worse performance over the last two games. If you constantly change your rankings, rating, and evaluations of pitchers based on one or two starts, you'll drive yourself nuts and probably do more harm than good. The one exception is if there's obviously something physically wrong in those 1-2 starts, like a 3-5 MPH dip in average four-seam velocity.

Aug 28, 2016 9:05 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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Doesn't look like that is going to happen. It looks like the Cubs' week will shape up like this: Monday: Arrieta Tuesday: Hendricks Wednesday: Montgomery Thursday: Hammel Friday: Lester Saturday: Lackey Sunday: Arrieta That could change, of course, but right now, it seems like this is the schedule the Cubs are going to use next week.

Aug 28, 2016 9:01 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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You're right, he is scheduled to go twice this coming week. The Rangers had a lot of TBDs on their schedule yesterday. I'd put Darvish in the Start category, right on the cusp of the Auto-Start category.

Aug 26, 2016 7:32 AM on Week 21
 
Scooter Hotz
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Maybe next week.

Aug 16, 2016 9:52 AM on Week 20
 
Scooter Hotz
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You are correct. Fixing.

Aug 09, 2016 9:48 AM on Week 19
 
Scooter Hotz
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I don't think that the Nats think of Voth as an org arm, as he was seriously considered for the start that ended up being Giolito's debut. I think he's just behind Lopez and Giolito in the pecking order because he doesn't have their stuff or their strikeout rates. He'll get a shot with the Nats at some point, probably in September but possibly earlier than that.

Jul 18, 2016 10:16 AM on Reynaldo Lopez
 
Scooter Hotz
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For sure. Well said.

Jun 16, 2016 7:42 AM on Week 11
 
Scooter Hotz
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You're right, Marte has been hot lately. If that streak continues, Cunningham might lose additional playing time. If the guys in this column had can't-miss talent and had clear paths to playing time with no competition, they wouldn't potentially be available in deep leagues in the first place.

Jun 16, 2016 6:16 AM on Week 11
 
Scooter Hotz
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Not sure if <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67187">Joan Gregorio</a></span> will be up that soon. He hasn't been nearly as good at AAA as he was at AA. Plus, the Giants don't have the opening(s) in the rotation that the A's do, so his path to regular starts isn't as clear as Mengden's. Sometimes opportunity matters as much as talent when it comes to playing time.

Jun 11, 2016 2:15 PM on Daniel Mengden
 
Scooter Hotz
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Nice!

May 13, 2016 8:18 AM on Week Six
 
Scooter Hotz
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The Phillies have acknowledged that they're considering a callup for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66557">Tommy Joseph</a></span>. He's been red hot in AAA so far and could replace <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60918">Darin Ruf</a></span> as the right-handed part of the first base platoon opposite <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37145">Ryan Howard</a></span>. Despite their surprisingly good record, the Phillies offense has been bad and Ruf is one of the light-hitting culprits. Even if Joseph is called up sometime soon, don't expect too much at first. As long as Ryan Howard is on the roster, he'll have the good side of the platoon, not leaving many starts for Joseph. On top of that, while Joseph has been hitting for average and power in AAA, his walk rate is down around 4%. Major league pitchers should be able to exploit his aggressiveness at the plate more effectively than AAA hurlers. Joseph will have to adjust his approach to be productive in the majors, and that's easier said than done. If and when Ryan Howard is traded (or released), Joseph could get a shot at a full-time role at 1B rather than a platoon role. That's not guaranteed to happen, though, and Joseph's current swing-happy approach isn't a lock to work at the major league level, either.

May 12, 2016 9:00 AM on Week Six
 
Scooter Hotz
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Not many, especially Corbin, but last year in my NL-only league (standard 5x5, 14 hitters & 9 pitchers), Colon was dropped & added at least once. I just wanted to cover different levels of depth, since "deep league" can apply to a range of leagues.

May 01, 2016 2:16 PM on Week Four
 
Scooter Hotz
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Of those three, I would release Jackson. As for Mazara, I think he *should* stay up once Choo returns from the DL since none of the Rangers other corner outfield options have covered themselves in glory. That doesn't mean the Rangers *will* keep him up, though. Choo's return date looks to be around May 21, which gives Mazara three more weeks to rake. I'd guess that there's a 50/50 chance Mazara will stay up at that point, with the other primary option being Desmond in LF to showcase him to see if they can find a trade partner. Of course, Desmond would have to start hitting for that to make sense, and that is far from a guarantee.

May 01, 2016 2:08 PM on Week Four
 
Scooter Hotz
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Short term, your best option is probably <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51611">Miguel Rojas</a></span> since he seems to have the clearest path to playing time. Walsh, Rivera, Perez and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45430">Aaron Hill</a></span> seem to be splitting time between second and third, leaving none of them with a starter's share of plate appearances.

May 01, 2016 1:54 PM on Week Four
 
Scooter Hotz
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It's a nickname I've had since I was 14, given by another counselor at the summer camp where I worked. Kinda dull origin story, I know, but it's the truth.

Apr 24, 2016 3:26 PM on Week Three
 
Scooter Hotz
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Montgomery could turn into a setup guy with reliably good rate stats, but he isn't there yet. I wouldn't take the plunge on Montgomery yet.

Apr 17, 2016 7:40 PM on Week Two
 
Scooter Hotz
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I'd drop Morin for Eveland or Rodriguez with a preference for Eveland. As for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56426">Liam Hendriks</a></span>, I was originally going to say that I wouldn't drop him for either Eveland or Rodriguez. Now that I've taken a look at his stats so far, I'd consider it, as he's probably setting fire to your rate stats. I'd strongly consider dropping Liam Hendriks for Eveland, and while I probably wouldn't give up on Hendriks for Rodriguez yet, I'd think about it. I'd like to see more from Barbato before buying into him. Griffin could be would a couple of FAAB dollars. I'd stay away from Nolasco - the potential damage he'd do to your team makes him a huge risk.

Apr 17, 2016 7:39 PM on Week Two
 
Scooter Hotz
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Thanks, man. Glad to help.

Apr 17, 2016 7:33 PM on Week Two
 
Scooter Hotz
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I'm with Chris. I'd go with Holmes by a small margin over Guerra. If you prefer to go with hitters because of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/TINSTAAPP/">TINSTAAPP</a>, you should feel comfortable with Guerra.

Apr 07, 2016 12:02 PM on Robert Stephenson
 
Scooter Hotz
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You are correct. Good catch. I submitted a revised, appropriate model portfolio to editing. Those changes should be reflected in this article sometime soon.

 
Scooter Hotz
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It's close, but with your league's categories, Upton at $23 is probably a bigger bargain than Gomez at $24. The difference is <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> as a category. Upton should accumulate 60-70 BB compared to 35-45 for Gomez. That more than makes up for Gomez' edge in steals.

Mar 24, 2016 8:03 AM on Auction Bargains
 
Scooter Hotz
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Maybe next year this league will hold their auction in time to be helpful.

Mar 24, 2016 8:01 AM on Auction Bargains
 
Scooter Hotz
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Commenter LeafontheWind read my mind. Every BP Annual comment for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48219">Jake McGee</a></span> from 2008 through his MLB debut mentions a possible move to the bullpen for McGee due to his control issues and his inconsistent secondary pitches. You can see these comments on McGee's BP player page. He was a top prospect, making it into the top 50 prospects on BP's list in 2007 (40) and 2008 (45). He didn't appear in a BP prospect list again until 2011 when he was ranked 73rd and he had already made his MLB debut out of the bullpen and his role as a reliever had been defined. Granted, his absence from prospect rankings in 2009 was certainly due to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> surgery, but in 2010, as his BP Annual player comment indicates, the odds that McGee would be a starter in MLB were a lot lower than they were when he ranked in the top 50 on prospect lists. As the years progressed and the chances that he would be a starter diminished, his prospect ranking dropped. A guy in low-A with a great fastball and no consistent secondary pitches can rank highly because that guy still has time to develop those secondary offerings. A guy in AA or higher with the same lack of secondary pitches won't rank as high because that guy is more likely to end up in the bullpen. As you know, starters are more to MLB teams than relievers because they throw a lot more innings. The Rays kept McGee as a starter until he was on the cusp of the major leagues to give him as much of a shot at developing his secondary pitches as possible to see if he could become a viable MLB starter. If he had developed a secondary pitch or two that he could throw more than 7 percent of the time, the Rays could have tried him as a starter. That development didn't happen, so the Rays made him a reliever. Teams usually won't move prospects to a lower-value role until they have to. For example, when teams have a shortstop prospect that they don't think can play shortstop at the major league level, they will often leave that prospect at shortstop as long as possible in case the prospect figures it out and becomes a decent shortstop. That player at shortstop is potentially more valuable than that same prospect at second base or third base or in the outfield. This is why lots of players end up playing farther to the left on the defensive spectrum in the majors than they did in the minors. The fact that a guy plays one position in the minors doesn't always indicate that the player in question will end up at that position in the majors. You see these types of comments all the time in prospect writeups - a shortstop prospect who is on the taller and heavier side being projected as a third baseman in the majors unless he shows some improvement in his lateral movement and quickness, or a shortstop prospect with below-average arm who projects as a second baseman in MLB due to his arm strength unless he develops a quicker release or somehow strengthens his arm. Sometimes these players manage to make it work and stay at shortstop, which is why teams keep these players at shortstop as long as they can. They might improve and become able to handle the more difficult, more valuable assignment. They often don't, but the reward of having one guy figure it out and stick at shortstop is high enough to make teams give prospects every chance to stick at the more difficult, more valuable position even if they think it's likely the prospect will have to be moved off the position. With pitchers, the same rule of thumb is often applied. The Jake McGee who started every game in the minors until he got to AAA wasn't going to be a starter in MLB unless he developed a consistent secondary pitch or two along with improved control. The Rays hoped he would develop and left him as a starter as long as they could to give him every opportunity to develop that control and those secondary offerings. The control eventually developed but the secondary pitches didn’t. Nobody was saying that Jake McGee would definitely be a reliever in the majors in 2008, they were just noting that the Jake McGee they saw with poor control and no consistent secondary offerings in the minors would likely be a reliever rather than a starter at the major league level unless he developed better control and one or two reliable secondary offerings. Those are two big uncertainties. As far as injuries go, McGee did have Tommy John surgery while he was in the minors. Aside from that, though, McGee didn't have any other injuries that landed him on the DL until the 2015 season. The Rays haven't showed a tendency to move Tommy John survivors to the bullpen, either. McGee's injury history didn't land him in the bullpen. The knocks on McGee as a prospect were his control and his inconsistent secondary offerings. He developed control, but he never developed a consistent secondary pitch or two. That was the main reason he ended up in the bullpen.

Mar 13, 2016 5:32 PM on Jake McGee
 
Scooter Hotz
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Thanks for pointing that out. I appreciate it. The years should be fixed now.

Mar 13, 2016 3:17 PM on Jake McGee
 
Scooter Hotz
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Based on your question, I did a deep dive on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48219">Jake McGee</a></span> and wrote a profile: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28618

 
Scooter Hotz
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Pitchers discussed in this article who will now miss the entire 2016 season due to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> surgery: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70434">Carter Capps</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jairo+Diaz">Jairo Diaz</a></span>.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Heh, I like the comp. Although the prospect team here at BP might tell us to be careful using comps.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Thanks for the kind words. I won't be doing this for the AL, but someone else on the BP Fantasy staff will.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Regarding the Marlins, I wrote about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70434">Carter Capps</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47296">Mike Dunn</a></span> above. Capps looks like he might be out of commission for a while now, and Dunn wasn't great last year. Behind those two, it's a free-for-all in Miami. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51993">Bryan Morris</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101403">Brian Ellington</a></span> both come to mind as hard throwers who could emerge as setup men behind Ramos, but neither of them has great control and neither strikes out as many batters as you would expect from their velocity. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=71177">Kyle Barraclough</a></span> has an upper-90s fastball, too, and strikes batters out at a better clip than Morris or Ellington, but his control is also worse than either Morris or Ellington. If any of these three figures something out, they could take on a more prominent role in the Marlins bullpen. But, for roto purposes, gambling on a significant step forward for any one of these pitchers is a bad bet. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66336">Hansel Robles</a></span> could be worth a stash, sure. He has good stuff and strikes out a lot of batters without a crazy walk rate. He could help you in K and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> without hurting you in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a>. But if your league uses the standard 5x5 categories, stats accrued in the 8th inning don't count any more or less than stats accrued in the 5th through 7th innings. If Reed struggles and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=77160">Terry Collins</a></span> decides that he'd rather use Bastardo situationally than as a setup man, Robles could end up as the setup man. In that scenario, the only value you'd get from Robles would still be in the K, ERA, and WHIP categories, the same way he earned value before becoming the setup man. And nobody in the Mets' bullpen besides Familia will be getting saves regularly unless something horrible happens to Familia.

 
Scooter Hotz
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No, it looks like McGee is clearly the closer for the Rockies going into the season barring injury. They wouldn't have traded an asset as valuable as <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66638">Corey Dickerson</a></span> for him if they planned on making him a middle reliever. You're right that the Rockies are not expected to contend this year. Closers are usually a luxury for rebuilding teams, but the Rockies did give up a lot to get him, so they might be reluctant to move him so soon. McGee is still under team control until after the 2017 season, so it's not as if the Rockies will be left with nothing at the end of the 2016 season if they don't move him at the deadline. If McGee was eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, a trade at the deadline this year would be much more likely. He still might be moved at the deadline this year, but the Rockies wouldn't be left holding the bag at the end of the season if they didn't move him. The argument for dealing him this year would be that they could command a higher return since they'd be trading away 1.5 years of team control rather than 0.5. There's definitely some trade risk with McGee, so adjust your bid accordingly, but if you made me guess whether he'd be traded at or before the deadline this year, I'd guess that he wouldn't be traded.

 
Scooter Hotz
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I think it's important to recognize that Arcia's callup date isn't set in stone. The timing will depend on his performance in the high minors, Villar's performance in the majors, and the health of all of the infielders on the major league roster, since Villar could slide off shortstop to 2B or 3B if someone at either of those positions gets hurt. Given the Brewers' current situation, I'd be shocked if they called up Arcia before mid-June and made him potentially eligible for Super Two consideration in a year where they are not expected to contend. I'd also be surprised if Arcia wasn't on the Brewers' roster in September. Where the callup will fall between mid-June and September will depend on Arcia's performance in the minors. The good thing for Arcia and his owners is that Villar won't be a barrier to playing time. If Arcia is playing well, he'll get a callup regardless of how well Villar is playing.

 
Scooter Hotz
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I wouldn't say it's a lock. Villar is enough of a question mark with the bat that he could hit .205 for the first month or two and lose the job to, well, anyone, since his defense at short isn't enough to keep him in the lineup if he isn't hitting. He's a decent bet for cheap steals on auction day, but that doesn't mean his bat or his glove won't cost him the starting shortstop job by May 15 even if Arcia isn't ready.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Yup, that's me. I do play shortstop for my bar league softball team, but I'm not scrappy. More of a diva.

 
Scooter Hotz
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You're welcome. Happy to help.

 
Scooter Hotz
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That was my first guess. I have Giolito (along with Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson, Corey Seager, and the first overall pick in our minor league draft which will likely be Kris Bryant) in my NL-only league with your BP colleague Mike Gianella. Obviously there's a fair amount of risk between Giolito's elbow injury and the fact that he's pitched less than 40 innings as a pro, all in either rookie ball or Low-A. But the ceiling has me drooling. I just wanted to see who you had in mind with that cryptic Bundy comment. Thanks for the input, Bret.

 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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Bret - in the Dylan Bundy section, you said, "his (Bundy's) kind of fantasy upside doesn’t grow on trees. In fact, it’s second to only one pitcher in the minors right now. Trade him away at your own risk." Who's the one pitcher in the minors right now with higher fantasy upside? Giolito? Bradley? Gray? Stewart? Other?

 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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Philadelphia! Come on.

 
Scooter Hotz
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Good call on Cubs In Five by The Mountain Goats. I'd nominate another Mountain Goats song, too: Song For Roger Maris. It's unreleased, but I saw it performed in New York a long, long time ago. Here's a link to the lyrics: http://www.themountaingoats.net/lyrics/extras_lyr.html#maris I also recommend Home Run Kings by Refrigerator. Link: http://new.music.yahoo.com/refrigerator/tracks/home-run-kings--32964271

 
Scooter Hotz
(2775)
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I think you mean "Andrew Miller," not "Adam Miller."

 
Scooter Hotz
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The archetypal injury-prone player in my oldest fantasy league is Barry Larkin. Injury-prone players are called Larkins. Example: Pat's team is full of Larkins. Specific parts can also be addressed by referencing Larkin. Example: Jose Reyes' hamstrings must be made of Larkin-groin. So, after all that, LARKIN: Logging And Rating Known Injuries (with) Numbers

Jan 28, 2010 9:29 AM on Padre Problems
 
Scooter Hotz
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Giants propose $13.1 million, Lincecum submits $18.8 million. The amount awarded is the one submitted by Lincecum.

Jan 18, 2010 6:46 AM on May 20-26