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Enjoying digesting the list. This is not a criticism, but for me this current list epitomizes how Baseball Prospectus has evolved over the years. I am sure that a decade ago, someone like Adam Eaton would have been reasonably high on the list based on performance metrics. Now probably more of an emphasis on tools and scouting. Full circle to some extent.
This is a great tool! Much appreciated.
Really like the 10 year forecasts with respect to keeper/dynasty leagues. One question that I have: is there are a way to extract a certain specific statistic projection (say 2015 VORP) for all players non-manually?
Looking forward to seeing the PECOTA player cards - for me by far the most interesting thing about PECOTA is to see the whole range of outcomes to guage things like upside potential. I have trouble knowing exactly what to do with single deterministic projections.
John, love the scout's views. Was missing them this off-season. Thanks for giving me my fix!
Perhaps publishing a schedule to set expectations would help (that was my point above)? I do appreciate the effort and I understand that vision. Unfortunately for me, I've found that the delayed content (specifically PECOTA related) over the last few years has made the website a lot less useful for me given that I'm primarily here for fantasy baseball purposes. Others may feel differently and, given that you seem to me moving away from firm commitments, I guess that I need to accept that or leave.
I'll be your one man advisory board: just publish the good stuff on website (PECOTA projections, team prospect lists, etc...) regularly and on schedule. That's really all I ask for. Not sure why it's a struggle.
Kevin this was awesome! At least a third of the guys on this list I hadn't actually heard of before so this is super helpful.
Given that Kevin is both setting the odds and then doing the top 11 lists, I'm wondering how much of this is just reinforcing his own biases. For example in the similar article last year he didn't even list Chris Archer or Trey McNutt as potential top guys for Chicago. So when the Chicago list comes out he has Brett Jackson #1 while Both Baseball America and Law have Archer ranked ahead of him.
Hey does anyone know when the actual PECOTA cards get updated? Is March 23rd the target date?
I'm assuming that it will take a couple of weeks - they need the long term projections (i.e. the info on the player cards) to calculate this.
Thanks for the history. Puts things into perspective. That said, if anyone ran their baseball teams the way you guys ran this process you guys would have been all over them calling for their heads!
John thanks for bringing back the scouts's views - love them!
There's no doubt that Dukes has been a thug although it seems that he has stayed out of trouble the last couple of years. I do however view him as a symptom of centuries of institutionalized racism (exploitation, ghettoization, intimidation, lack of opportunities - we all know the history).
He's a direct product of this history. In no way do I condone anything that he's done. But you've got to put into context. How many of us has gone through that sort of upbringing? Father murderer, mother crack addict. Some people may come out of it relatively unscathed, some emerge like Dukes but many end up dead or in prison.
It's always just easier for us to ignore this, deny it, blame him, say that we want nothing to do with thugs like Dukes. So just releasing him and breathing a sigh of relief in my view is the easy and standard thing to do. Sure he had a bad year last year but come one, he's dirt cheap, has an option remaining and showed tremendous potential in 2008. It's ridiculous to say that it's a baseball decision. Just admit that you don't want to deal with the bagagge and move on. Everyone does it.
I'm looking forward to the annual apologies for PECOTA delays and errors and the false promises that it will be all be better next year.
I definitely feel that these projections are unusable at this time and am surprised that they are being published into the mainstream as final.
Personally I'm willing to pay current rate, and perhaps slightly more, primarily for the PECOTA cards. However given the disaster on these last year and the lack of an ETA this year (other than "very soon") I'm questioning whether it's worth it. I guess that the bottom line is that if there was better disclosure on what would be delivered and when, I'd be in a better position to say whether I'd pay the premium.