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So the maximum impact a team can have over another on the running game is half a win. Wow. Do pitchers control this more than catchers?
Also, there was development work on Game Calling Above Average, which highlighted certain players like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1381">A.J. Hinch</a></span> that are not good framers, throwers or blockers - but somehow manage to keep their jobs.
Is the Pecota Projection for Dodger wins 99 or 93 as per the Playoff Odds page? Is 99 the expected wins taking out the context of schedule? If so, do we really think the NL West is that strong (6 wins?).
So the Dodgers are projected by Pecota to win 99 games on the Depth Chart Standings page, but have an average 'Sim Wins' of 93 on the Playoff odds page. Which is the official Pecota projection?
Incredible work. Does the WARP in the chart below for catchers already include base stealing runs?. Also, has there been any study to show the effects of pitch calling, and whether some good pitch framers actually lose this value because they are poor pitch 'callers'.
A.J. Pollock 2013 fielding metrics: UZR: +17, DRS: +15, FRAA: -3.3. This team is going to be very under-rated defensively by Pecota.
Because WARP includes defence and baserunning. That being said, if your going to include non-context neutral batting runs (RE24/boLI) than doesnt the defence and baserunning components need to include context as well. I suppose with play by play data we have the ability to do that, but I think it needs to be consistent.
How many years of Value Added runs do you need (or PAs)in order for Value Added runs to become just as good an indicator as Linear Weights. If its only like 3 years (rather than say 10) I would like to see a 1 year WARP with Linear Weights and a 3 year WARP for Value Added Runs. Anything more than 3 year WARP is likely useless in terms of determining True Talent as then you get into aging factors etc.
So are you suggesting just use RE24 instead of Linear Weights?
A couple of requests:
- Please make it easier to find WARP in the Statistics page. Right now I can find WARP, but to find the individual components you need to really search. I would love it to be on the front page as a continuous update similar to B-Ref and Fan Graphs.
- ARM ratings need to be part of FRAA (if they are not already). I know you have said they are part of WARP, but they are still not available on your site.
- Please leverage the work Max Marchi is doing on Catcher fielding (ie: framing / game calling) in FRAA. This will truly separate WARP from fWAR and rWAR.
Amazing work as always Max. Where do high prospects like Zunino and D'Arnaud rate in terms of framing.
Amazing Max, this is fantastic. You talk about 'game calling' which is a combination of calling a pitch, calling for a pitch location, and then framing that pitch. Is all this attention on pitch-framing worth little if a good framing pitcher is a terrible pitch caller / locator. Shouldn't more attention be on the other two pieces of this puzzle before we start lobbying Jose Molina / Brad Ausmus for the Hall of Fame. I recall in a previous article of yours that there are good framers that ultimately lose that value as a result of poor game calling. Or have we dismissed 'calling' to be less of a skill and more of a manager function. Thanks again.
Heyman has to start looking at other forms of WAR/WARP. The Reynolds / Johnson argument does not even come into play if you input a heavily regressed defensive stat like UZR, instead of DRS.
Molina squats with the one knee down quite a bit. Not sure if this helps wear and tear on his knees or if this is pitch framing strategy. The nerd in me hopes it's the latter.
I watched this series (Jays / Indians) and I thought to myself that Santana had really improved his framing. His movement is more 'quiet' then last year. Nice to see it is translating into some called strikes.
Sorry disregad the 30 run difference, I was looking at run scored. The RA for both teams is about the same. However, it is suggesting that Mets pitchers are 30 runs better than Brave pitchers despite similar WARPs. Thanks
Thanks for the insight. Colin or Ben, I have to ask about the Mets / Braves runs against projection. Atlanta is projected to give up 30 more runs, yet is projected to save 40 more runs on defence than Mets. This would suggest that Atlanta pitchers are giving up 70 runs more than Mets in FIP categories or hard hit balls etc. However, WARP for both pithcing staffs is basically the same (Atlanta a little higher). What am I missing that Pecota sees in terms of run prevention.
So not only is Atlanta 40 runs better than the Mets in FRAA, but the Mets are still projected to give up less runs than the Braves.
You cant go by the total WARP values until they prorate them to actual projected playing time. There are number of fringe players projected to a minimum of 250 PAs that are going to skew your total WARP.
Also the difference between the best fielding catcher and worst fielding catcher is only around 3 runs. Seems really low even if you ignore the uncertain effects around framing, game calling etc.
Fielding Run projections are interesting. The Braves are head and shoulders above everyone on a team level (+22). The next best team is just around +9. Simmons seems to be the reason with a projected +16. I think the next closest is around +6. I am not sure how Pecota projects defence, but this must have a big impact on projected ERA for Braves pitchers.
Dickey has outperformed his FRA by about a run each year. I will take the under on the 4.41 ERA projection.
you forgot Jose Molina's 5 wins for framing.
Just a note: In 2007 Shields LD% was 16.3% and in 2010 it jumped to 20.3%. That is a pretty large swing, and thus while luck may play a part in this poor 2010 BABIP, it's tough for any good defensive team to catch line drives.
That is really disappointing.
Are we going to get to see all of Max's ratings for 2012?
At say, $4.5M a win, your $205.5M is going to buy you around 46 projected WAR. Assuming a replacement team gets you 47 wins (.290), than that's 93 wins. Welcome to the playoffs.
Your All-Pro team is perfect. Although I would lean towards Rodney as top RH relief pitcher. He had a better ERA, more saves and more IP than Kimbrell while pitching in a much tougher division. The obvious major difference is the Ks, but on BIP Rodney had a 58% GB rate and 11.1% IFFB rate. This compared to Kimbrell's 49% and 3.2%. It's really really close though.
Maybe some voters didnt agree with MLB's treatment of Trout's rookie status amendment this past December.
"The actual Classic will take place in May 2013 in various venues in the U.S"
I assume you mean March..
Colin does this tell us anything about hitter's age curves that we didnt know before. I thought that typical hitters improve by half a win (above replacement) a year until around 27-28. This would seem to suggest that the increase is much less if a whole team between 27.4 and 28.4 (ave age) only improves by ~.648 wins a year during that time.
OK checked - it doesn't. John Buck leads with an FRAA of 2.0. Would love if your numbers spoke directly to FRAA.
Awesome. To clarify, does your defence number represent the FRAA for catchers in the WARP stats?
I never understood Dewan's reasoning for measuring shift plays the way the do. However, how does FRAA do it. I think you say that FRAA does not simply leave these plays out similar to UZR. Do you simply add it in to the pool of plays a third baseman makes in comparison to other third basemen. Does FRAA compare it to plays a second baseman makes given the positioning is closer to their typical zone?
Kevin, does Myers have to do a stint in Triple A before a call up anyway? Or is Double A Arkansas a more challenging hitting environment. Not familiar with KC's affiliates.
I do see them now. I think the WARP projections may not include fielding or positional adjustment. A number of better fielding players TAvs are increasing but WARP is less than current projections (see Brett Lawrie)
you dont stick around long once your below replacement
I agree. I have been eagerly awaiting this.
Has FRAA incorporated arm ratings for outfielders yet? I had asked Colin this a while ago, and I understand that an update was to be done, but I dont see it. So your FRAA figures above are just range, no.
Great work Max. So in your previous article Brian McCann saved 79 runs due to framing. However, overall he has saved his pitchers 35 runs altogether (not including SBs, PBs etc.) Does this mean that mean McCann lost his team 44 runs in terms of 'game calling'. Is it that simple?
Max, will this work become part of the Catcher FRAA ratings for BPRO in the player cards. Not sure if this is already being done or not.
Congrats Mike. I really hope BP continues to build on your great work on Catcher defence, which really brought me back to sabermetrics earlier this year. Thanks.
I ask because when you take out the ARM ratings for Kemp from the other metrics (all in agreement of around +5 runs), all the other defence metrics are in agreement that Kemp's range is below average by around 3 to 9 runs. Therefore, the WARP figure for Kemp is likely understated by about half a run, if my suspicions are right and FRAA does not include ARM ratings.
Once again, does FRAA include Arm and DP ratings like the other defensive metrics do?
Sorry one more question. Positional Adjustments for pitchers are higher than any other position. Thus, when added to the FRAA in Total DEF, it pushes all the pitchers to the top of this list. Is this the right way to present this, as I didnt think that BP positional adjustments were based on fielding difficulty as much as average hitting ability of the position.
Fantastic, particularly the WARP breakdown. Colin, can you tell me if the new FRAA includes ratings for OF arms and / or infielder DPs. If not, will that be an enhancement down the line?
Wow. So if you incorporate this into a WARP like stat for catchers, I guess you have to deduct these runs saved from the pitcher's runs / WARP or you would be double counting the catcher's framing skills on a team level.
Any chance McGowan becomes the Jays closer in 2012?
Just checked. Fangraphs is a .290 winning percentage, thus 47 wins. Colin did you discuss replacement level in your series on new WARP? I cant find it.
It seems like the new WARP has a much higher Replacement Level than traditional WAR. I calculate 723.5 WARP over all players in the database with playing time expected. A replacement level team is about 57 wins. I seem to think this is about 10 more wins than WAR at Fangraphs. Was that the intent?
No IP WARP
P 447 43534 328.9
Pos 403 179637 394.6
Replace W 56.9
Replace W% 0.351
So 381.1 WARP for hitters and 620 WARP for pitchers. I know that playing time is not adjusted yet, but seems too heavily weigthed to pitchers. A leaderboard for WARP would show Pujols at #1, then 14 starting pitchers, and then Ryan Braun as the second best position player.
I agree. Everything I heard is that the early death of his mother forced him to grow up pretty fast.
Does this include runs saved from arms (OF) or DPs in the infield.
Change it to a Under 27 List, to pull in players hitting their peak years.
I took all fielders with over 200 innings in 2009 and 2008 and did an autocorrelation of their RZR (using FanGraphs BIZ) and came up with 0.62 correlation (only a 0.25 when using UZR/BIZ). Why am I showing such a higher relationship than your Plays / Inning divided by Average Pos Plays / Inning using the same data?
I am still a little confused. If GB% of BIP and FB% of BIP is somewhat controllable,then isn't the alternative hit type a Line Drive, and thus controlled by default. Or does a pitcher that has high control over high GB% rates, have little control over what is left (LD% and FB%). Thus, does a pitcher have control over how high his FB% is and how low his GB% is, or just control over his high FB%.
Err...did the Angels bus crash. Wa happened?
I think the reason is his innings are actually 90, not 40. There is some double counting of Janssens stats because they have him as both a starter and releiver. His releiver line should be deleted, with the innings moved up to the starter line.
Thigpen and Adams have been DFA. McGowan not expected back until after May, possibly July, which makes his expected innings generous. Would assume Janssen will get most if not all his innings as a starter
So the Jays Top 11 have not come out, but with Arencibia ahead of Carrasco of the Philles, does that mean he is a 5 star prospect.
Good point about defense. That was a huge lift for the Rays. Question, it would seem the AL East has a \'strength of schedule\' adjustment to it\'s Wins / Losses, as the Jays Pathag would be higher at that Run Differential.