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Cardinals645
70 comments | 59 total rating | 0.84 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/26292
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Lol, the Upton and Bauer for Stanton deal was also proposed by Miller... Though, he at least did not include Escobar.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 2

I'm not sure SSS applies to physical mass, since weight tends to vary relatively little from day to day.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Matheny has said that he like Anderson's defense however, so it's far from a sure thing.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Though I understand you can't do a full write up on everyone, I'm bummed there's not more on Cleto as I think he's one of the more interesting prospects in the system. What does he have to work on at AAA to become a MLB starter: control, offspeed pitches, or is it something else? Thanks, and I love the write ups!

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

Another point about Worf playing 1st base, which I gleaned from the wikia page for this episode: Michael Dorn is left-handed and in the episode Worf fields lefty and bats righty. Perhaps Capt. Sisko wanted a lefty at 1B. It's a trivial reason to make such a decision, but a reason nonetheless.

 
Cardinals645
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Comment rating: 0

Didn't Eck and Bogues just look strange anyway? They both wound up being very good players regardless of their stature, but Eckstein's throwing motion was unique.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 3

1. Wasn't there an episode that explored Bashir's choice to become a doctor instead of a professional tennis player? You'd think a guy with the instincts and reflexes to be a pro-level tennis player would have pretty good range as an infielder, no? 2. Perhaps Nog was the only one talented enough to field the catcher's position and block balls in the dirt and so forth. It doesn't matter how strong the catcher's arm is if every ball goes to the bleachers.

 
Cardinals645
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Comment rating: 0

If it helps, I think it originally read, 56% Cards v 44% Braves.

Sep 28, 2011 6:05 AM on
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Archive doesn't seem to work.

Sep 28, 2011 6:03 AM on
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Think it's broken at the moment, but if you use the archive thing in the comments above you might be able to see what they're supposed to be. Source: http://twitter.com/#!/cwyers/status/118904730276737024

Sep 28, 2011 6:02 AM on
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

What is the range of scouting reports you're getting on Oscar Taveras' power ceiling? Is it possible he just winds up a 'tweener: unable to play CF, but not enough power for RF?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

First, I think your comment about Sig calling the shots seems likely, since his title IS Director of Amateur Draft Analysis. But I think, in order to support your view that the Cardinals are solely college stat focused, you have to ignore the Shelby Miller selection, as well as Tyrell Jenkins (and, to a lesser extent the Carlos Martinez signing and the would-have-been Wagner Mateo signing). The Cardinals are not intentionally shying away from upside. I think it's more likely that the Cardinals have a list of amateur players they like, some polished some raw, and they draft the ones still available when they pick. They might prefer college hitters more than other teams, but I don't think they're afraid to draft upside guys either. The Cox and Wong selections are better explained, in my mind, by the fact that they both played well in the Cape Cod league, where the hitters use wood bats. The aluminum-wood bat transition does not go well for every college hitter, and I think the Cardinals organization weighs wood bat performance heavily. Wallace was named a Cape Cod All-Star too.

 
Cardinals645
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To my knowledge the organization hasn't hinted at any preference. My guess has always been that Carpenter will be the odd man out, since seems to have the least power of the three. Plus, Freese has established success in the majors when healthy, and Cox was a 1st rounder with a major league deal. I'm guessing Carpenter will be trade bait this offseason and Cox will play at AAA at some point early 2012 (possibly starting there).

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
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I'd prefer a list of top talents than a mock draft, but I'm a Cards fan and they tend to pick in the 2nd half where mock drafts mean nothing.

Jun 06, 2011 7:16 PM on The 2011 Mock Draft
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

Wow, an update on all three guys traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Intentional, or fun coincidence?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Are those McClellan numbers right? The WMSS (2/7) that I have gave him 3.75 ERA as a reliever, so 3.65 as a starter seems to be a stretch. Other than that, isn't Punto hurt? And Allen Craig is spending time at 3B this year, and he seems like a more likely PH than Jon Jay, or at LEAST Gerald Laird.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

Maybe it's just a matter of everyone else taking a step forward and the system getting deeper, but I think having it explained would be instructional.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Part of the reason I wanted to have links and such available on these lists is so that these things would not go unnoticed and Kevin can explain to us some of the changes. For example, why did Mark Hamilton drop off the list? He played a full season at AAA for the first time and OPS'd .974. Obviously, with age and defense and all, he's not a top prospect, but his prospect status can't have dropped off that much from last year.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 7

Kevin, No Pirates questions here -- just wanted to express appreciation for the inclusion of the links to the previous three years of rankings. This will make my life SO much easier. Thanks!

 
Cardinals645
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Comment rating: 0

Crap, good call. Thank you.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 3

Funny, I was actually just wondering what the draft order was, but had forgotten to look it up. Now I know the draft order AND the Top 11 order. Convenient!

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 6

Yea, I really miss Nate's PECOTA's Prospect rankings and his discussion about why PECOTA may over or under rate different prospects.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Yea, but he was also a 3-Star guy the year before that; he was a solid prospect but I don't think he was ever seen as more than a mid-rotation guy. The point is just that it's an interesting question: where would he rank now? Do we now view his upside as higher than before, or is this entirely a fluke?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

A bit of both, I think.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 3

Regarding the number of prospects per team: Perhaps there should be a minimum, and then more if there are other 3-star guys?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 2

I'm looking at it more from a "what happened?" angle than a "what did Kevin get wrong?" sort of thing. Rankings change -- nobody knows how a prospect will fare in advance. It's useful to know why different players fell or rose, or aren't on the list -- even in the case of promotions. Ex: The last two years Jaime Garcia ranked as a 3-Star guy. Would he rank higher after posting a sub-3.00 ERA in the majors?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 4

A comparison to last year's Top 11. Who fell off and why? Similarly, I'd also like to see changes in ranking if a guy gets bumped from 4 to 5 stars or 5 to 3 stars. I'd like to know if they did, and why (without having to dig up last year's list). At least some links to previous years' rankings would be nice. The changes in player rankings aren't always obvious to us (or maybe just to me).

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 2

After seeing the line from Miller's performance Wednesday night and reading your tweets, I was expecting Shelby to have a highlighted spot in your Minor League Update yesterday. I was disappointed until I read you were doing a full scouting report; you did not let us down! I can't wait until the Top 100 and Top 11s! Very interested to hear more about Miller's timetable.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: -1

Joe Sheehan: Baseball Reporter WRITER A Collection of Baseball Analysis ^The 2nd line is optional (as is the first, I guess).

Aug 06, 2010 9:48 AM on Welcome Back
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Kevin, do you see Sanchez/Salas/Reifer as filling "middle-relief roles" or do you think they are likely to be set up men/closers?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: -1

I'm up in Santa Barbara but hail from OC, so I'd gladly make it down for this. LA is probably closer for me, but OC is far easier from a navigational perspective.

Jun 22, 2010 7:55 AM on LA Area Feed
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

I'm grateful for the notes on the Cardinals AA players, but I'm really curious what your take on Pete Kozma is. He's batting .378/.452/.568 in his last 10, and raised his season totals to .269/.332/.441 after a dismal April in which he batted .185. Is this a flash in the pan, or is he starting to figure AA out?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: -2

I know this is off-topic, but when are we going to start seeing some draft prospect reports?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

I know it's early to be projecting picks, but how soon will you be putting out a Top Potential Draftees list?

Apr 29, 2010 11:24 AM on Projecting The Top 10
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

That's true, but I think Richie's 2nd point (that lineup positioning is just as or more important) is a good point too. I play in an NL-Only League with 13 teams, so I know where you're coming from, but whether or not a guy bats leadoff is huge as well.

Mar 19, 2010 10:42 PM on Depth Chart/PFM Update
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 4

I'd say this represents BP's 10th percentile of their performance projection.

Mar 12, 2010 9:00 PM on
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 4

When do you anticipate switching the Depth Charts, PFM, and Spreadsheet to Weighted Means?

Mar 12, 2010 4:51 PM on PECOTA Update
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Haven't they done a good job? As I mentioned above, they're pretty set on the field, in rotation, and in the bullpen for at least two-three more years. That should be plenty of time for the system to reload, especially in the weak NL Central.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Sure, the Cardinals are not one of the richest teams, but they do draw well from their city. I agree that they cannot build a team through free agency, but they don't need to as long as they can add a regular or two here or there (like Brad Penny). They have three starters and all eight regulars locked up for at least two more years, as well as nearly all of the bullpen. They don't really need to add anyone in the future, and you can bet that Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn will be candidates for the final two rotation spots next year. They do need to start building up the system now, with the hopes of producing some more regulars and a star a few years down the road. Luckily, I don't think they'll need to see major league level results for a few years.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: -1

I don't think the Cardinals are focusing on their Organizational Ranking, nor do I think they should. The focus is at the Major League level, and they have a solid nucleus of players to carry their team for the next few years (Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, Molina, Wainwright, Carpenter). All they have to do is fill in a couple pieces here and there. Plus, these rankings change dramatically from year to year. The Cardinals were ranked 9th by KG last year, but traded away a couple players and promoted Rasmus. Similarly, if they make a splash in the Latin talent market, and a high-upside guy falls to them, they could rise up quite a bit next year too (probably not to 9th though). But the team should be pretty competitive in the NL Central for the next 3-5 years, so they probably won't need their system to produce a star player until then.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 2

Kevin- I really enjoy these lists; they give me a view of what can be expected out of each system in the next few years, and a quick sort of "Who to Watch For" for my fantasy team. However, aren't Organizational Rankings as they're currently constructed more like a snapshot in time of the team's minor leagues? Teams aren't necessarily ranked based on their ability to sign and develop players, in fact successfully developing players into major leaguers can hurt their rank. Do you think there should be a list that gives a more comprehensive view of each team's player development by examining their performance in the draft, international signings, player development, and players graduated to the majors (as opposed to a "How Full/Empty is Their Minor League Glass Right Now?" sort of list)? Could we see something like this in the future? Thanks!

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

:-/ Can't be a good sign for the PECOTA card Beta that's supposed to be out today...

Feb 25, 2010 9:36 AM on An Experiment
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Gripes: Lugo getting 10% of the time at 1B. Craig seems like a much more likely choice/fit. Kyle McClellan is now being considered for the 5th starter spot. FWIW, Rosenthal announced him as the favorite I think. Is there a way to see the ERA for a pitcher as a reliever and his ERA as a starter (separately)?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Not sure if 2nd entries are allowed, but CATCH: Carroll's Annual Team Calculation of Health

Feb 03, 2010 11:29 AM on Padre Problems
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

HEALTH Helpful Evaluation Applying Lights to Team Health

Jan 28, 2010 10:26 AM on Padre Problems
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

What happened to Chris Valaika? I know he had a pretty down year and he's a bit old, but is he done?

Jan 26, 2010 3:43 PM on Reds Top 11 Prospects
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 5

I don't want to seem picky, but there's a good chance Edmonds is used primarily against RHP; are there any PECOTA indications on his splits?

Jan 25, 2010 3:16 PM on May 23-27, 2002
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 3

Actually I think that would be an incredible and astounding achievement for any human being.

Jan 11, 2010 3:26 PM on Heading Out
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 6

It seems I'm way behind on throwing in my two cents, but if anyone is still reading here it is, in brief: 1. It's redundant, but I'd be remiss not to mention how much I've enjoyed Joe's writing over the years. He'll obviously be missed. 2. More than I care about upgrades in some of the stats, and I'm not saying they're not important, I'd like to see a change in the structure and presentation of the stats currently available (and the site as a whole as well). I think DanUpBaby of VivaElBirdos.com put it best: "How useful would these BP stats be if their website wasn't designed and hosted in some wormhole that connects 1998 to 2009?" I think I read above that this is being addressed and is, by far, what I most look forward to seeing. 3. Maybe I speak in the minority here, but one of the primary reasons I began subscribing to BP was for PECOTA projections. I'm glad to hear it's being moved out of EXCEL, and I hope many improvements will follow. That's the other thing I would most like to see. I appreciate the open honesty and, while reserving judgement, I look forward to seeing the results of these changes.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Slowing the game down wouldn't hurt as much as the idea that a game's results are in the hands of the umpires rather than the players.

Oct 21, 2009 11:23 AM on The Horror
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 2

The same way they play without the HR instant replay.

Oct 07, 2009 6:40 PM on July 15-21, 2002
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Velocity is necessary but not sufficient for a major league pitcher.

Sep 03, 2009 10:34 AM on Throw Hard or Go Home
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

So...execs think that even though first round picks are more talented and more valuable (in the WARP sense), maybe mid-round picks are potentially bigger bargains (assuming rising signing demands)? Instinctively I wouldn't expect this to be true, but IIRC the Draft pieces by Rany J. the end of the first round through the next few rounds had a pretty gradual decline in value, right? I could see how that might be true, if that's what's going on. I would guess tis is a tough year to implement that kind of philosophy though. With the economy down and the recommended slots cut back, first rounders had to expect bonuses to already be lower, but it'll probably be tough to accept even lower bonuses due to a new philosophy.

Aug 17, 2009 8:38 PM on In the Slot
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Well, getting them out there and developing sooner is important, but from the standpoint of promoting the draft it would be great to have the draft a few weeks later and be able to get all the kids there. To be fair, right now most don't show up anyway, but the college players whose teams are still in the CWS bracket have no chance to attend at all and having all the players there would be great to help promote the draft.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

I'd love to see a combine on just a marketing/entertainment level. The NFL combine seems pretty popular and this would be the first time most fans saw these kids since college football is wildly more popular and televised than college baseball. Right now, for the most part, fans usually see a few clips of these guys when they're drafted, and only ever see them again if they make the majors.

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

“What happens behind the scenes when a player is scouted and then drafted?" “What happens behind the scenes when a team scouts and then drafts a player?" Essentially, I'm curious about the same thing from the point of view of both the player (and his family and agen--I mean adviser) and the team.

Aug 06, 2009 5:39 PM on Another Viewpoint
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Why did this question not get answered? Is the answer already printed somewhere else? This seems like a good question...

Jul 26, 2009 7:24 PM on Players
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Instead of trading him, does it make sense for Descalso to start at 2B in the majors at some point next year? He doesn't solve the unbalanced LH lineup problem, but he would stop the revolving door there, and provide an upgrade from Schumaker's glove.

Jul 13, 2009 10:23 AM on July 13
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 1

It's different when you have a bounty of other talented prospects to replace him. I'm not sure that the Nationals do.

Jul 04, 2009 10:30 AM on Whining
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Seems like McCutchen is now to be called up. Care to take credit for your prediction of his pre-Flag Day arrival?

Jun 03, 2009 6:28 PM on June 3
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Just when I was wondering when draft coverage was going to start/getting anxious. Good timing KG! Will you be coming out with a separate ranking of talents like last year?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Does that include graduating seniors planning to attend graduate school?

Apr 03, 2009 1:01 PM on Greatness
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, and also do you still qualify if you're a full-time college student who is graduating in June?

Apr 03, 2009 12:38 AM on Greatness
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

I ordered mine from B&N, and so far this index is all I have... :-(

Feb 20, 2009 12:01 PM on August 22-30, 2001
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Teams in Ca: 5 Teams in NJ: 0 Events in Ca: 1 Events in NJ: 2 Obviously this is more than a tad unfair, but SoCal would like some love.

Feb 20, 2009 11:58 AM on Mythmongering
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

I think we were supposed to make suggestions for additions to the Top 11 Series earlier, but now that I\'m actually looking at them I\'ve had a brainstorm. -Links to the last few years\' rankings -Last year\'s Star Ratings (For example, Bryan Anderson was listed at 4 Stars last year.) -Maybe an explanation for Rating changes For the record, I really enjoy the lists as they are. Can\'t wait for the next one!

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

I don\'t want to gang up, but you also have to consider that Tim Dierkes isn\'t out getting these rumors himself, he\'s merely compiling and posting links to those who have. As helpful and appreciated as that is, it\'s not the same thing as posting the originals.

Dec 08, 2008 12:57 PM on Venting
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

Joe Strauss has an article on Carpenter\'s injuries at stltoday.com that sounds like if the Cardinals are unlucky Carpenter\'s condition may end his career. Is that pretty accurate? What are the odds on him pitching next year compared to pitching again at all?

Sep 23, 2008 5:24 PM on UTK Interactive
 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

At the end of the article you say that the boast that the Pirates have the best management team in baseball is all talk, and undoubtedly a statement like that will always be debatable, but is there a way they could have handled this better? It seems to me that there was never really a better outcome available to them. Perhaps they could have had the contract agreed to before the official deadline, but it sounds like the extensions had happened before and weren\'t unheard of. Am I wrong in thinking that once they got the extension and \'signed\' Alvarez to the original deal, their fate was sealed?

 
Cardinals645
(26292)
Comment rating: 0

What exactly does \"aiming pitches\" mean, and why is that bad? I\'ve heard the term before but never quite grasped how that was different from how pitchers normally commanded their pitches. I assume in scouting it has some other sort of connotation.

Sep 20, 2008 12:14 PM on NL Two Steps Back