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Yup, that is it exactly. Thanks.
If I were in an 8 team league (AL only, but I doubt whether it is AL, NL, or mixed), how would I adjust these values? Would we need to look at replacement value (salary wise), knock everyone's salary down by that amount, then rescale in order to get the dollar pool to add up correctly?
Also, what is the positional breakdown for starters? 5 OF? Any infield spots?
No pitchers to "consider" in either league?
"If a league member of yours secured the services of Ellsbury, but also scooped McLouth late as bench fodder only to see him evolve into this stolen-base stud, then he is likely willing to deal one of them, as he’s almost certainly built a substantial lead."
I am in this exact situation- is Trumbo and Dickey a solid return on Ellsbury?
I know he had a reasonably successful career, but I always wonder what Tony Conigliaro could have accomplished had he not been hit in the face.
Minor typo - "curceball" in the Henry Owens write up. What is Owens' ceiling? I've read disparate reports on whether he is succeeding via great stuff or a polished approach (despite the walks).
Predicting BABIP is more or less futile, I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway. No one is going to consistently produce a BABIP above .350 or so unless they're 1999-2002 Manny Ramirez, so some regression is to be expected. McLouth is hitting a lot of line drives (25.8%) relative to last season (20.1%) and his career average (18.6%). Looking at batted ball data is is pretty hand wavy at this point in the season, but it does give us a pretty good approximation for how he's done. Given his speed and batted ball profile, a BABIP around .325 seems pretty reasonable for the rest of the season.
To (finally) answer your question- I'd guess it's about 50-50 luck and swing.
I love to see Straily so high, so I am curious about your thoughts. Is this ranking a combination of his home park and minor league dominance? How concerned are you about the indifferent scouting reports?
...because it makes sense to compare every prospect to one of the best young players in baseball history?
I'd say a lot of Weekks dropoff was BABIP. His rookie season it was unsustainably high (0.350), and last season it was awfully low (0.246). I'd expect a decent bounceback into the 0.300 range, but even then his offense output it going to be pretty minimal due to his lack of power. In the end, even if the babip bounces back, he's not much of a hitter. Green is probably lower on the depth chart, but could possibly turn into a better player than Weeks.
I know Sean Doolittle was 26 and not considered, but given his recent conversion to pitching I still think of him as a prospect. Where would Doolittle rank on the under 25 list?
Thanks for the feedback. I'm a little more bearish on Escbar's slugging, since a lot of it is based on a 60 point spike in BABIP. His ISOs the last three years are only 0.091 0.089 and 0.098.
With Alcides Escobar, what makes you so high on him? Do you project further growth from him, or would a repeat of last season be enough to get him in that neighborhood?
Is there any way to add team or league to this table? For those of us in AL or NL only leagues, that would be a huge help! It would also help us place those guys towards the bottom of the list, without having to look every one up (e.g. "Where the hell did Rzepczynski end up?")
With regard to Jemile Weeks, doesn't it make more sense for the A's to give him first crack at the job? He was quite good in 2011 and his babip in 2012 was cover your eyes awful. He's young enough to still have some upside, while Sizemore is at this point a known quantity. Why not gives Weeks a shot to keep the job?
I don't see how a Santana for Hellickson trade helps the Indians. Even with Santana's batting average woes he has a WARP of 2, while Hellickson is actually at negative value this year while his swinging strike rate has dropped to below average.
And I am. Don't use the regular search! Be sure to use the link in the first paragraph, unless you really, really want to know how Verlander handles the bat.
Unless I'm missing something it seems like the pitcher PitchFX information is actually for them as a hitter.
At this point, shouldn't we be talking about Franklin Morales? He's probably not going to be able to go deep into games, but in his three starts (the third happening tonight) he has 23 strikeouts over 16 innings and only three walks.
Isn't Drabek heading towards TJ surgery?
How long do you think it will be before Kalish is called up?
Given his college experience and dominance at High A in his first full professional season, should we expect Bradley to be promoted in the near future? Or do the Sox have him working on specific things at that level?
Is there any conceivable reason why the Royals called up Irving Falu instead of Giavotella? Or is it just more Royals madness?
Have you seen anything different in Middlebrooks' approach? The main knock on him has always been his free swinging ways and high strikeout rate, but he seems to have trimmed his strikeouts this season.
What's Jackie Bradley's ceiling? Do you think he can stick in CF, and what sort of power growth (if any) do you expect?
I didn't see any of the games, but I was very curious too, so I looked at the box scores. The summary is below, but from those it looks like he's tiring at the end of his outings, is homer prone, and was the victim of some bad luck, as hitters are 13-23 on balls in play.
1st innings- 9 outs, 7ks, 2bb, 3 hits allowed (2 singles 1 HR)
2nd innings- 9 outs, 7ks, 1bb, 2 hits allowed (2 singles)
3rd innings- 9 outs, 6ks 1bb, 1 hit allowed (1HR)
4th innings- 5 outs, 3ks, 6 hits (one HR, two doubles, three groundball singles to the shortstop!)
5th inning- 0 outs, one appearnce, BB, 2B, 1B.
Jason,I'm curious if you looked at comparing the groundball versus the flyball pitchers that met your other two criteria. I read a recent article (that I can't seem to find, sadly) that suggested that while groundball pitchers tended to have lower ERA, flyball pitchers tended to have more strikeouts and a lower whip (since the expected babip on a flyball is lower than a groundball).
Honestly, your best bet might be a Google spreadsheet that everyone can access. That way you can stick with whatever site you currently use, plus it would be quite flexible in terms of what you can do with it.
The difference column is inconsistent. For example, Felix Hernandez has gone from 40 to 29, and is listed as -11. Carl Crawford, on the other hand, went from 33 to 45, but is listed as -12.
That is an excellent point about the A's not being the first team to attempt to use these new statistics. I was shocked when I found this, but Branch Rickey, a manager even "older school" (and it isn't even close), wrote a piece in 1954 on new statistics. He advocated the use of on base; isolated power, which he called power quotient; and even the general uselessness of fielding percentage as a measure of defense. Not bad for a guy who was in the Hall of Fame ten years before Tommy Lasorda began managing.
Kevin, do you think Jacobs has a chance to be an above average Lf defensively, or do you see him growing into more of a below average fielder/DH as he fills out?
What about Luke Hochevar? He's gone 7+ innings with 6 or more Ks in his last three starts, against pretty solid offenses (Boston, TB, Baltimore).
What are your thoughts on Ivan Nova? I am, sad to say it, an AJ Burnett owner in an AL only league, and all the guys you listed are already taken. Burnett has been atrocious lately, and I am getting sick of his "good" starts being ones where he has a high ERAa but doesn't kill me WHIP wise.
Whoops. I misread your post. Sorry about that.
Are you sure scouts love Chang's tools? I thought Kevin Goldstein just wrote about how Chang's production is way, way outpacing the mediocre to poor reviews his tools get.
At this point, Navarro's likely peak is something like Aviles. KC can afford to take the chance and see what he turns out to be, but Boston can't afford to take that risk. If it doesn't pan out and there is an injury in the infield, the Sox are looking at either Sutton or Navarro. Aviles is a low risk, low reward player, but given the state of the Boston lineup, that's just what they needed.
Thames' hot start isn't completely backed up by a lot of his underlying numbers (K:BB, BABIP), especially for average. He certainly has power, but I think he's likely to regress to an average around .250. Given the question marks around Snider and Thames, and the fact that Corey Patterson is still Corey Patterson, I don't think the OF is nearly as crowded and there is more than enough room to move Bautista back there, especially if the Jays think that 3B is Lawrie's long-term position.
What would be a reasonable ETA for Middlebrooks? Will his skills be major league ready by the start of the 2012 season, or is he looking more like a mid to late season call up in 2012?
Do you think Lavarnway has a shot to stick at catcher with another off season of working on his defense? Or is he already in the mold of Mike Napoli, where he'll catch, but you probably won't like it?
I think he could play 1B, but the trouble is that playing him there greatly decreases the value of his bat. I'm also not sure about the quality of the defense he'd provide, especially since he's really only played C/DH in the minors.
I think the players have that label because of the beginnings of their careers. Ortiz was non tendered by the Twins, before emerging with the Red Sox and helped them break one of the most famous championship droughts in sports. A-Rod has always been the golden boy, and left Seattle for a preposterous contract in Texas. No, they're not all that different now, but how they got there is what gave them their reputations.
Just to clarify, I am in no way suggesting that Weiland is as good as Beachy or will have the same level of success, more just wondering about Beachy. By pitchfx, Beachy's pitches don't look much different from his mixed results last season, but he did start throwing sliders at the big league level, and I was wondering how much that made his other offerings more effective.
Kevin, in response to this comment, how much does a pitchers stuff play up if he has more pitches to work with? Is that the sort of thing that happened this season with Brandon Beachy?
Excellent article, Steve, though one nitpick- oxpeckers actually remove ticks other parasites from the animals the ride on, so it's beneficial for the animal. The McCourts, on the other hand, are clearly not.
What are your thoughts on Jed Lowrie? His shoulder injury has been nagging him, and he had to leave last night's game after his first AB.
Great article! It also makes me wonder what would have happened to Mauer and Prior if the Twins took Prior instead. Would Mauer still be at C? How much of Prior's injury troubles would have been avoided with a more conservative approach?
With more and more teams "gaming the system" with Super 2 status, couldn't that actually push back the deadline? If I remember correctly, isn't it awarded to a certain percentage of players with the most playing time, but would otherwise be pre-arb?
Has Mike Trout filled out over the last year? Could that explain his declining SB numbers, or do you think it is just a fluke?
How does Jennings have green across the board? Does the system not look at minor league injuries? Jennings has battled injuries throughout his minor league career, missing big chunks of time. Having him not miss any time at all seems nuts.
Quick question about Cano- why does he have the "yellow crossbones" for the 1 day and 15 day injury list given his past health? Is it just the nature of 2B to have high risk due to possible collisions during double plays and the like?
I have a question about position count- how should bench players be counted? I've been using the PFM for years, and I've never really had a good idea on how to address bench players.
PECOTA just does the projections based on what similar players have done. PECOTA doesn't "know" that Feliz is most likely going to stay the closer, so sometimes for things like saves the numbers are a bit wonky. The depth charts would be a better place to check out what the expected saves totals will be for Feliz and other players.
I did miss the point of your question, sorry. I think it balances out, in that they don't know who is going to break out, or who is going to underperform. Of your three options, I think the first makes the most sense. One other thing to consider is that there will be plenty of top tier players that will fall short of their relatively modest projections.
It's not that PECOTA projects a low run environment. It's that breakouts and collapses can be very hard to predict. Growth and career path can be projected, but things like home runs just clearing the fence, balls finding gaps, etc can be really difficult, since much of it is simply luck. PECOTA isn't saying that the league leader in home runs will be Ryan Howard with 40, it's that based on the projections, Ryan Howard is our best guess. Someone could break out unexpectedly, get lucky with balls just clearing the wall, or any number of other things.
Yes, it does seem odd, especially in light of the extremely high breakout values for some pitchers (20+ over 20%, with a mix of injury recoveries, job shifts, and young players).
Thanks - that is what I was thinking. Three years scared me because of cost and the possibility of losing his job.
What do you think is a fair price for Gardner in a 8 team, AL only league? I have him at $4, and am wrestling with how long to keep him for (1 year at $4, 2 at $9, or 3 at $14). Everything I read seems to indicate that he's due for some regression, but with 30 or 35 steals and plenty of runs he's still pretty useful, right?
Yes, Rizzo had Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2008. If Rizzo can make the leap to MLB player it would be really special for the Sox to have two cancer survivors (I'm assuming that Lowell will no longer be there) on the roster, considering their relationship with the Jimmy Fund.
What about JD Drew as a comp? With his eye, your comments on his defense, and a bit of pop, that is the name that jumps out to me. I'm not sure Nixon fits, since he was so helpless against lefties and Kalish can hold his own against them.
This is the first I've heard of Joe Benson, but based on the write up and his triple slash the first player I thought of was Mike Cameron. Is that a fair comparison?
Buchholz's injury is now being called a minor hamstring tear instead of a hyper-extended knee. Does this change his recovery timetable at all?
ESPN is reporting that the Diamondbacks are pushing back Edwin Jackson's start from Wednesday to Friday or Saturday. Does this help reduce the risk of throwing so many pitches?
Whoops, that's not the case at all. According to the link that the Fangraphs information is based on, it takes 550 PA for BB rate to stabilize, but only 150 for GB %.
I was just reading a piece on Fangraphs that mentioned that K rate tends to stabilize after about 150 batters faced. I would imagine BB rate is pretty similar.
Any details about Brett Anderson? Mychael Urban quoted a team official saying "It looks like he's done". Can you think of why this would leak before the MRI results are even out?
Clemens too, for that matter. Clemens' PED woes are mostly self inflicted, for being so self righteous about it (without addressing the question whether he used or not, if I were falsely accused I'd be pretty upset and would respond similarly). But there really isn't any difference between how Giambi handled the whole mess (apologizing, but not saying what for) and how Pettitte did. The only difference is Pettitte could be direct about it, since he knew a suspension wasn't going to come down from Bud.
Do you think it is a double standard for hitters versus pitchers? I can't recall any outrage about Edinson Volquez, except for the fact that he wasn't really being punished. Or do you think it just boils down to players who are still successful right now? Although it was a huge deal last year, you hardly hear anything about A-Rod's PED use now.
Fair enough, thanks for the reply.
I know Gordon is mashing, but what do you make of his worrying strikeout rate in AAA. He's definitely showing excellent power, but he's striking out in 25% of his PAs in AAA. Is that something to worry about?
Regarding Wallace, I think the answer to the weird split is in his BABIP. According to minor league splits (which is an amazing resource, for those who haven't discovered it), his BABIP against lefties is .476 and against righties it is .296. His batting average against lefties hasn't been inflated by a few extra singles dropping in though - his ISO against lefties is similar to his ISO against righties (an impressive .300+ for both) and his walk rates are similar as well.
I may be being dense, but I'm having trouble understanding these charts. I can't figure out what these percentages are (WARP3 over the life of the contract?) and why we should care about percentages rather than absolute numbers.
Regarding Daric Barton's injury, I know you don't have any information regarding the exact timeline the A's are using, but think you could ball park it for me? Is this a short DL stint type injury? Most of a week off type injury? Thanks!
Funny you should mention that- this Fangraphs article just came out, and it seems that Duncan does increase GB%.
As a Red Sox fan I'm surprised that you haven't noticed his trend of pitching well until he gets dinged up, after which he's a total disaster. I wouldn't mind dropping $1 on Wakefield if he starts in the 5th spot in the rotation and plugging him in while the weather is still cold.
Let me second the request for a player's age in the 10 year forecasts. Knowing what age they are for a given year is key for interpreting those long term forecasts...
I'd look at JR Towles. His minor league numbers are pretty impressive for a catcher and he's going to get another crack at being a regular this year.
I'm a little confused by the conservative Lester projection. Honestly, at first I thought I was looking at a projection for the 2009 season. I suppose it could be PECOTA struggling to account for the 81 and 63 innings pitched in 2006 and 2007. Eric, as far as the Bard projection, I can understand why PECOTA would be so negative, given just how bad he was in 2008. Also, his "Improve" is up to 78%, with "Breakout" at 38%. I wonder if certain parts of the player pages hadn't been updated yet.
I don't feel that this would be worth much, if anything. Sure it would be a bit more convenient, but if I were to pay more for BP I'd want something NEW rather than something that would just save a few clicks. While it would be nice to have, that kind of information is readily available from several sites.
A more sophisticated way to take a look at this question would be to use a repeated measures ANOVA. Using a BACI design (before, after, control, impact) and adding similar players who didn't receive LASIK as a control would be more appropriate. That would essentially keep track of an individual's ability to make contact, rather than lumping them together in a single average. With such a low P value, I doubt it would change the results of the analysis though.
I know a lot of people have brought up the idea of Wakefield as the long man, but I am not sure he can do that. I don't have the source handy, but if I am remembering right it took Wake hours to get ready for his starts. If he's the long man, he won't have that luxury, unless he is on a schedule- but if he is on a schedule, he wouldn't be worth much as a long man.
As a Red Sox fan, I have opposite feelings but agree with your assessment of the two trades. I'd say the Getz/Fields package is a bit more valuable than the two pitching prospects the Sox gave up AND I'd rather have Hermida than Teahen. At least Hermida has some upside.
Out of curiosity, who do you have as the ChiSox #1? Peavy? Floyd?
Hey Will - Great link for the punting, as usual. In baseball I'd say some of the ideas that have been challenged have already been looked at - the sacrifice bunt, the intentional walk, and break even points for stolen base success rates. A key thing to keep in mind is that they're writing about high school football - I would doubt that an NFL team would be able to recover 25% of their onside kicks (I think the success rate is ~10% when the kick is expected) and the average starting field position after a kickoff would be deeper. I'm not sure how 4th down conversion rates would compare though.
Great minds think alike, apparently.
As far as the Ellsbury comment, I'm not sure I agree with the Gold Glove comment. I'm a Red Sox fan, and I'd love for him to be on his way to being a great defensive center fielder, but I'm not certain that is the case. He certainly has the tools for it, but too often it seems like he gets bad reads and takes late breaks on ball. He covers for it very well with his speed, but I think he's an average fielder. His UZR/150 this season is -11 (source: Fangraphs), which is lower than I would have expected, but confirms my thoughts that he isn't an elite defender.
Alvarez was mentioned as well.
Exactly what I thought. I know the focus is on players acquired this year, but it is hard to imagine an article on the future of the Pirates without mentioning their best hope for an impact player.
The interesting thing is that the Rays don't have a spot for either of those infielders. Longoria, Bartlett, and Zobrist have been great this year and figure to stay put next year (or if Zobrist moves I imagine it would be for Iwamura). Wood and Rodriguez might be moving from the frying pan into the fire when it comes to being blocked.
Looks like you have a snafu there with your AHLF table.
I think you are overstating the woes of the Red Sox defense. The left side of the field is an absolute mess. Lowell, Green, and Bay in LF are all well below average defenders. Youkilis/Kotchman at 1B(Youk UZR/150 +12 at 1B, though terrible at 3B- SSS warnings apply), Pedroia at 2B (UZR/150 +9.7), Drew (UZR/150 +13.8) in RF are all plus defenders. Ellsbury in center, even with his speed, is probably an average defender given his bad reads and weak arm.
Short stop is a mess because both Lowrie and Lugo were hurt and ineffective. When your "best" shortstop is Julio Lugo, that's not saying much.
I believe the difference for Toronto is with all the pitchers coming back from injury and Travis Snider hopefully adjusted to the bigs, the Jays will have a shot at the playoffs next year. The Nationals, however, have almost no shot at the playoffs.
I don't think that is a fair way to look at it at all. The money committed to Lugo was a sunk cost. They felt the team was better going forward with Lowrie and Green, despite Lugo's bloated salary.
Don't get me wrong, the contract to Julio Lugo was a massive mistake, but as a Red Sox fan I'm impressed they got a player who might be useful. I've said for months that if someone offered the Red Sox a turd sandwich and a quarter for Lugo, you quietly throw out the sandwich and thank them profusely for the quarter.
I'm a little late on this one, but I think it is totally unacceptable for a reference book not to have an index, especially considering the odd (but semi-understandable) placement of players on former teams. If I want to look up projections for a player I shouldn't have to sleuth around for their transaction histories.
What about median EQA? That would limit the outliers like Pujols and Davis have on what is considered "average" (in a non-statistical sense).
For once Ricciardi is being honest (after lying about so many different playing injuries) and of course it is to kick a guy when he's down. Obviously I can't say anything for certain, having never met the man myself, but after the Adam Dunn fiasco last year (especially with the personal "apology" that Dunn has vehemently denied he received) perhaps Ricciardi is just kind of a jerk.
I liked this piece overall although I'm not entirely comfortable with some of the analysis Matt did. When comparing multiple groups to one another, shouldn't he be using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) instead of a t-test? And why break the data into 6 year groups? And finally, although he attempts to address the argument that high school draftees have higher upside, is a WARP of 10 really appropriate? You don't draft a high school player in the first round and call him a "success" if he becomes Bruce Chen or a Travis Lee, you're looking for guys who can put up a 5 or 6 win season.
What about Nolan Reimold? Should we continue to expect solid power production and perhaps more importantly, regular playing time?
It may seem like a minor quibble, but the line describing the runner states after each play is practically illegible. If you're coming in without a good understanding of how run expectancy matrices work and see that line of numbers I doubt you make it through the rest of the article. It cropped up in another article or two, but formatting tables is key.
I liked this article, but I felt like the section involving WHIP and ERA didn't flow very well. As will pointed out, it didn't really stick to the title, and I think the author should have gone straight for the OBP and runs/game relationship.
Any timetable for Ricky Romero? I thought I might have missed him in an earlier UTK, but couldn't find it in the archives. Strained obliques are more worrisome for hitters than pitchers, right? Although isn't that what derailed the second half of Beckett's season last year?
I think that Sonnastine clearly showed himself to be the better pitcher this year. Despite his relative lack of \"stuff\", he still struck out more batters than Edwin Jackson, while walking far, far fewer. Despite their close ERAs and the difference in stuff, the underlying stats say that Sonnastine is the better pitcher. For those reasons, trading Jackson seems like the right move. The Rays don\'t need to gamble on a starter, they can stick with the solid pitcher to fill out the back of their rotation.
At least on TBS\'s pitch tracking stuff, the pitch to Tek was on the outer edge and down. Granted, I think the velocity was lower on that fastball, but it was still a difficult pitch to pull for a HR.
I think you have to consider the source in this case. The Chicago columnist is going to be focused on players from the Cubs or White Sox. Given that the Giants discussed dealing Lincecum for Rios, and the long rumored Cain for Fielder deal, they seem to value their pitching, and wouldn\'t accept declining first basemen.