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stately
22 comments | 31 total rating | 1.41 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/24076
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

Hm. Maybe jumped the gun on Ryan Roberts' "return to mediocrity." Also, a .371 on-base is pretty serviceable in OBP leagues, especially with his multi-infielder qualification.

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

You said "Dan Harden," which is a fair enough mistake...

Jun 07, 2010 6:57 AM on Monday Update
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

Do you account for the fact that when a team sucks very badly, their opponents win more? So, very bad teams will appear to have tougher schedules than good teams. This effect is more obvious in the NL list than the AL list. Using ELO ratings might normalize this, since teams would lose more or fewer points based on opponent quality.

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 3

I think it's important to stick to 3rd-order wins. Much as pitcher wins and RBIs have been forgotten by the statistically-minded, we want to make sure that we judge GMs by what they have control over. They have control over making sure their team has talent on the roster that can win, but if terrible luck in one-run games leads to a .500 record by a team that outscored their opponents by 90 runs, we can hardly blame the GM for poor talent management.

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 15

Revenue Above Yearly Standard.

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 12

I doubt that the winning percentage has anything to do with handedness. You're selecting for teams that got a lot of starts from the same guys, meaning that their rotation stayed healthy and was worth keeping intact all year. If you look at all teams that get 100 starts from three guys, you'll probably see more winners than losers. I could be wrong, but it would be nice to see you control for this.

Aug 19, 2009 9:35 AM on The Left Wing
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

Thank you, mister knight in shining armor. As you can see, I was speaking more in general than about today--I can see that "a tad bit of slack is perhaps warranted" given the current circumstances, as archaic as that may sound. I remember, however, that when I first became a member, I could always expect content to become available by noon eastern time, but these days nothing is posted until three or four in the afternoon sometimes. I was simply wondering if a change is policy is making my lunch break less enjoyable. I would certainly not have anything to say about a single instance, but wished to point out what I saw as an unusual pattern. Thank you anyway for getting up in arms in classic message-board style.

Aug 04, 2009 6:49 AM on Angelic
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: -2

Are their deadlines anymore at BP? It seems like content just sort of pops up at random times.

Aug 03, 2009 9:39 AM on Angelic
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: -1

Umm...why don't you just list the teams in reverse order by their current odds of reaching the playoffs, because that's what this list is. Obviously teams with a high probability of reaching the playoffs have less room for improvement. This calculation is absurd. Maybe you should subtract pre from post? That would certainly give us a better idea of the impact of adding Halladay to one of these teams. Otherwise this exercise is pretty useless.

Jul 29, 2009 10:43 AM on Today is No Halladay
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 1

Joe-- I think a good way to verify this is to look at the home/road records in the interleague series. Over time, are the NL teams--who don't reserve a payroll spot for a designated masher--falling behind in games under AL rules?

Jun 26, 2009 12:05 PM on The Imbalance of Power
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 2

How much blame would you put on the A's coaches and farm system here? They seem perfectly capable of turning any scrub who can throw a baseball into a league-average or better starter, but they can't even nurture incredible talent into a major-league position player. I can't help but think that Barton, Crosby, Chavez, Ellis--to name a few--might be solid players if they had grown up with a different organization. What would the Braves be doing right now if they had Oakland's system? How does A's player development manage to get one good-to-great year out of every young player and then watch them fall off the planet? Jason Giambi is the only one who can remember when the team could hit, and even his OPS has dropped 150 points since coming back to Oakland. Flawed organizational philosophy? Gypsy curse?

Jun 25, 2009 2:03 PM on AL West Moves
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: -3

I'm not so sure about the quality. It seems to digress right around comment #12,048. U kno wut, 2? Pwned!

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 1

I think we're all overlooking the real problem here, which is clearly people having not only the motive, but the opportunity to post comments on BP articles. This reads like a Rivals message board for an SEC football team. Thank you for the hilarious lunch break. Go sports!

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

1) I was 13 in 1995 and the biggest Braves fan. My father randomly decides to take us on vacation to Montreal of all places. The first morning there I get food poisoning from a salmon crepe--why did I order that? Needless to say, I was NOT enjoying myself. Until I spot John Smoltz in our hotel bar. Who's visiting the Expos but the soon-to-finally-win-it-all Atlanta team! So we get seats at Olympic Stadium just over the left-field wall. At my first major-league game, Javy Lopez and Chipper Jones both go deep about two feet from where I'm sitting and save my miserable vacation. This was the game where Marquis Grissom became enraged with the horrible photo of him the Expos put on the screen. It was the baseball equivalent of James Brown's last mug shot. 2) Ryan Klesko!

Jun 12, 2009 8:30 AM on More Revenue
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 1

I think this was the most engaging BP Idol article I've read yet. An interesting subject I've probably though about several times in passing but would never have dedicated any time to researching (and what is BP for but looking into things I don't have the time, brains, or connections for?) As a statistician, I am reminded here that good analysis often has more to do with asking interesting questions than creating complex models. And I think you've done an excellent job of blending leisurely conjecture with analytical rigor. Pretty much anyone with a little time, curiosity, and Excel could have fun with a question like this. P.S. Did you test the fit of non-linear regression on any of the variables?

 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 1

Although this speculation about the Pirates player acquisition budget is fun, and a nice way to make it seem like they're making a smarter move than meets the eye, we shouldn't overlook the fact that ANY trade of McLouth for prospects frees up money for the organization. So I believe it is much more important to focus on what they did and didn't get in return.

Jun 04, 2009 2:20 PM on The McLouth Trade
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: -2

Translator?

Jun 04, 2009 12:32 PM on A New Age of Reason?
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: -1

The argument makes sense, but the premise is wrong. How many people believe this is the best deal they could get for McLouth?

Jun 04, 2009 11:43 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

Yet. Let's keep and eye on Feliz and Andrus for a little while. I think Salty and Harrison have already shown themselves to be properly undervalued by the Braves organization.

Jun 04, 2009 11:35 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 1

Furthermore, even if the Pirates and Braves are smart enough to know what McLouth is actually worth--a shaky assumption itself--then it is, in fact, completely illogical to trade him at that value when there are teams out there who think he is worth more. In an "age of reason" teams would do what was in their best interest, right?

Jun 04, 2009 11:28 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 0

P.S. Dear site administrator, have you noticed that the first two lines of every comment are indented a single space? Not very bothersome, to say the most, but a little odd.

Jun 04, 2009 11:17 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
stately
(24076)
Comment rating: 3

This trade only makes sense to me if Hernandez and Morton have more value than we think. Gorkys is 21 and getting on base at better than .360 in AA. Morton has impressed people before. But for an affordable outfielder at peak value? Meh. The Pirates must have a secret love for one of these prospects, because there's got to be a team out there willing to give up more for McLouth. But really, in the end, this trade breaks a rule that I think all GMs should follow: don't trade for Braves prospects. Somehow that organization always knows which of their seemingly decent minor leaguers aren't actually any good. Maybe they've got Dionne Warwick on contract. And this trade sure displays her Value Over Replacement Psychic.

Jun 04, 2009 11:11 AM on A New Age of Reason?