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I was promised <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70516">Eric Haase</a></span>.
Some of your best work here, Ben
This is great stuff, Adam. Thanks.
Fantastic Rube Goldberg reference
Actually, it seems like you're paying for both. Two for the price of one!!!
Because he has an imagination and enjoys fun.
Excellent stuff; love the research metrics blended with the video/gifs. Really is incredible how much of a difference two gloves can make.
Sorry, but <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67263">Luigi Rodriguez</a></span> was never considered a plus defender in the OF, let alone CF. I know that's not really fantasy-relevant, but he's been a poor OF defender throughout his career.
Demi Orimoloye is a steal at #21 in this draft.
Gotta be honest, I'm disappointed that Yankee Prospectus is a thing and yet Sandwich Prospectus is still just a dream. Maybe we can get Craij Prospectus, where Goldstein has free reign to educate us all on the dangers of infused water and whatever else catches his fancy on a given day? I'd renew my subscription for that alone.
I like this article and idea more than I like Craig. Read into that what you will.
Good stuff! As an Indians fan, Charboneau and Hamelin were the first two guys I though of when I saw the title.
I'm in a 31-team AL-only 11x11 league that uses WAR and SecA as offensive categories. If Javier Baez is traded to the AL, should I use a top-5 pick on him? What do you project Baez SecA in 2019? I sent this the Bat Signal several times in 2015, and have yet to see a reply (there were about 1000 more words in the BS request, as I explained, in detail, some of the "quirks" of our league. Thanks.
Great stuff, as always. Wish they could be as good at drafting as they have been at trading. Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo trades are other examples of getting (essentially) something for nothing. Could even throw the Pomeranz/White for Ubaldo deal in there, as with patience (and Mickey Callaway) it ended up being a pretty good trade for the Indians. Front office continuity also got them Tito Francona, as he works well with Shapiro and Antonetti and wouldn't be in Cleveland if not for those two guys.
Did Witt pound on the table for Harvey over Bundy?
Agreed. He's a better real-life player than fantasy player regardless. Decent defense, no power, and I don't think he'll even run that much. Plus the fact that he's just a placeholder for Lindor at this point. I like him on my real-life team, but can't see rostering him in fantasy unless it's an AL only or deep dynasty league.
Yes, if only you had a brilliant pitching mind breaking down mechanics of pitchers throughout baseball, maybe with GIFs showing their delivery and how that delivery evolves from season to season. Maybe a guy like Doug Thorburn...is he available?
Also, while you're at it, try and find a guy like this Ryan Parker genteleman that I've seen on the twitter dot com for hitting. He does a fantastic job with hitting mechanics, and breaks down prospects and current major leaguers alike.
If BP could just find guys like that, this site would really take off.
#Craij is bad and wrong.
Thanks as always for the great work, Doug. Have you seen pitchers who adjust to throw exclusively from the stretch add FB velo like this before?
This is amazing. Also I expected Bret to be taller. Not sure why.
Rock and Jock style softball game, with all MLB players. 50k entry fee, winner take all. Gus Johnson and Vin Scully doing the play by play.
So right off the bat, Ben takes two catchers while Craij pops two pitchers. Opposite day at PB?
This is going to be good.
Carrasco to the bullpen (announced last night). But the Indians don't need a 5th starter until May 9, so unclear as to what they'll do when that spot finally comes back around. Guessing it's Bauer though.
Anyone who thinks this is "pretend arguing" has never listened to TINO. Or tried to have a conversation with Craij.
Great stuff, C.J. This is a massive amount of #want in one article.
But the question wasn't "which of these SS has the highest upside?" As articulated by the FO and BP guys who are much smarter than all of us, Lindor has the highest floor, and while Baez could be a perrenial MVP from the SS position, he could also be 'merely' a 1st-division 2B, or even less.
Bagwell was one of the first people I thought of when I saw this article.
This is incredible.
Bauer actually wasn't as bad as that line indicated. His 1st BB was against Hamilton on a 3-2 count after he fouled off several tough pitches (9 pitch AB I think). Walked Phillips on 4 straight, but got ahead of Votto and struck him out, then got Bruce to fly out on a 2-0 count. 1st pitch strikes to 2 of 4 hitters, and the 1st pitch to Bruce sure looked like a strike. Not saying he's turned a corner or anything, but to say "same old Bauer" based on the stat line from 1 IP seems premature.
Congratulations. Hope you can be the part of a team that finally brings a title to the North Coast.
As an Indians fan, I'm both sad to see him go and glad he's someone else's risk. The Orioles, with more payroll flexibility than the Indians, can afford to gamble on a 4-year chance that he really has figured it out and can maintain whatever delivery he found in the 2nd half last year.
Pretty sure we can get to 50 pretty easy. Especially if Craig comes. It'd be like Beatlemania all over again.
Cleveland? I have to think their front office would be extremely receptive to something like this.
The "Top Commenter" is perhaps the most unintentionally funny designation ever.
Carleton's cookies > Craij's pies
Should change the name of the column to "Abreu Watch!"
Good stuff as always, Jeff.
You can’t prove the raspberries are frisky.
Thanks! Doubling-down on my Indians catcher fetish, any thoughts on Wolters transition? Tough move to make, even with someone flashing 80 #want. Saw him in May and again in August last year, and the difference was remarkable behind the plate.
Great stuff, as always. Was a little surprised to see Naquil all the way up at #3. Any thoughts on Eric Haase's OFP/realistic role? I like his collection of tools, but wonder if he will hit enough.
Light a mupmupmup, light a mupmupmup, light a mupmupmup....
Great stuff. As you said, too many are taking the approach of "if I can't measure it, it must not exist." Similar to those who hold that a manager, pitching coach, hitting coach etc has no discernable effect on a team. While there's no way to know just how much a manager can improve a ballclub, and I agree that a good manager isn't going to take an otherwise ordinary team to the playoffs on the strenth of his leadership alone, there is some sort of relationship between good managers and successful baseball teams.
Thought for sure it'd be Russell Carleton reliving the '97 series. Someday we'll get there, Russell. Someday...
5 of the last 6 starts against RHP, Giambi was the DH. And that doesn't even include his walkoff HR game against the Sox (pinch-hit). Tito has called him the team MVP. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in the lineup tomorrow.
Aceathon: Drops mic, walks off stage
Dylan Baker long-term SP or RP? Can he wind up as a MOR SP?
Bob Wolcott shutting down the '95 Indians in game one of the ALCS will always stick out in my mind.
Great stuff as always, Zach. Alfaro ultimately have a higher ceiling with the glove or bat?
Great stuff, Mark. I haven't had a chance to see Lugo pitch this year, so love getting to read your writeup on him. Indians moved him up to LC last week.
Thanks again. Really love your work.
Thanks Doug, fantastic stuff as always. Do you see Masterson's overall improvement as a long-term step forward, or more of a one-season outlier? Basiscally, is the increased K% here to stay?
Great stuff, Zach. Love the changeup to the usual MLU. Great example of being selective aggressive.
These are fantastic. Love this kind of raw insight into your opinions on players.
So, basically looking for a way to put a grade on #want.
Thanks for the writeup on CC Lee, didn't expect to see him here (or in the Futures Game) owing to the injury issues. Love watching RHB react to his slider, as it comes out of his hand looking almost exactly like the FB. Seen a lot of RHB bail out of the box on a pitch that ends up right down the middle.
I love that we managed to work a Russell Branyan reference in, especially when talking about Gallo.
Grady Sizemore. Watching him play CF was an honor and a privilege.
Yeah, Angel Hernandez really is the worst.
Great stuff as always, Zach.
Perdo Cerrano's conversion from Voodoo to Buddhisim worked out in the end. Struggled at first though.
Indians actually have 3 101 guys including Bauer. Jose Ramirez is going to skip Carolina and open at AA Akron, an aggressive assignment for a guy with only 70 games outside of the complex leagues. But Naquin will likely open at Carolina, and with Lindor, Luigi and newly-minted catcher Tony Wolters all in the Mudcat lineup, they're still the Indians must-see affiliate.
No love for Roberto Perez's arm behind the plate? Consistently in the 1.7-1.8 range everytime I've clocked him.
Edit: I now see your Indians offer, font for team name was smaller than the ones around it. My offer still stands though.
Since you don't have an Indians one yet:
Gomez (that's clearly why they DFA'd him), Fedroff (you see that power in AAA last year?!?), Neal (replacement RF), Zeke Carerra (replacement for Reyes at leadoff) and Rob Bryson (2013 closer) for Stanton.
For what it's worth, I believe his dad is a South Korean power lifter. Show me your war face!
Also, if LeVon Washington can manage to finally stay healthy, are you a believer in the underlying tools or no?
Can the lefthanded TJs (McFarland and House) fill out the back end of a major league rotation someday?
As a lifelong catcher, I'm both depressed by the trend and also going out of my way to blame it on the pitchers. As you pointed out with Barajas, many of those stolen bases are decided well before the ball even pops into the catcher's mitt.
In the meantime, we'll just have to wait for Bethancourt and Roberto Perez to make it to the majors to have that line trending in the opposite direction.
Tom House, meet Ubaldo Jiminez. Ubaldo, meet Tom. Do everything he says. Please?
Beyond excited to see these start rolling out. Love the new format, I think it will work out very well. Kevin will still be missed, but I think we're in good hands here. Thanks in advance for all the hard work, Jason and team.
I really like Ronny Rodriguez, but agree that deal would make a ton of sense for both teams. Indians have Dorssys Paulino and Tony Wolters as SS options as well (although Paulino likely ends up at 3B and Wolters is a better fit for 2B), and even Juan Diaz in AAA.
Strange that the club can acquire so much depth at a position like SS but fail to groom even an average LF or 1B.
I agree with your assessment of both the current talent level and the upper levels of the minor league system. I just expected better than what seemed to be the two main points of the article, which I interpreted as:
1) Manager has far less effect on W/L than players
2) Francona could have done better, and he'll be fired in 3 years
My main point is that Acta was fired not just because of wins and losses, but because of fundamental disagreements with the way the Indians front office went about acquiring talent. Francona won't have that same problem, and a shared vision from the front office goes a long ways towards job security, as does the perception of improvement. Shapiro got promoted to team president because he and Dolan get along, and Antonetti is still GM because he and Shaprio have worked together in the past and they both have similar philosiphies in player acquisition and development. I wasn't trying to be mean, just honest in my criticisim.
So, no one wants to look even 6 inches below the surface on this one?
Francona has worked for the Indians before, as a special assistant when current team president Mark Shapiro was GM and current GM Chris Antonetti was Shapiro's special assistant. He's comfortable with the management team in place, he shares their vision on how to build a roster, and will likely have more input on the 25-man roster than he would in many other places. Could he have done "better"? Maybe, but that depends on your definition of better. Could he have found a more talented roster with an owner with deeper pockets? Sure, those are all over baseball. But there's more to finding the right opportunity than just those two factors. He'll certainly have a little more leeway with a front office that knows and trusts him, so the prediction that he'll be out of work in 3 years seems short-sighted.
Overall, an uncharacteristically lazy take from BP, in my humble opinion. We all know the manager has a limited impact on the final W/L record. We all know Cleveland has below-average talent and finances. Go a little deeper and try to answer some of the questions, not just pose them.
I'm right there with you on Garcia. Looked like a completely different player in Lake County than he did in Goodyear. He was solid in spring training this year, but just looked physically uncomfortable in the Midwest League. Hoping it was just the cold combined with the culture shock of going from Arizona to Eastlake, Ohio and he bounces back next season.
This article is dripping with #wet. 80-grade #want, no doubt.
Love...LOVE the Hawk description. Agree with the above comment, need to do this for radio announcers too. Tom Hamilton (Indians radio guy) is much, much better than Underwood, and I'd rather non-Cleveland baseball fans have a representation from Hammy rather than Underwood.
Thanks in advance for all the hard work in the next 72 hrs, Kevin
And this is before the Indians took down Verlander in another 1-run game yesterday afternoon. Hope it is sustainable this year.
The main issue for the Nats is that a good portion of what could be the fanbase is from out of town, with allegiances to other teams. No one in DC is really "from" there. And their insane ticket prices draw away casual fans as well as hard-core fans of other teams that want to catch a random game.
Thanks Jason, this is awesome. Really enjoy these in general, and especially when you profile Indians prospects. Wolters does have 70 #want, hopefully that can play up his overall tools package.
If Francisco Lindor isn't an all-star SS before he leaves Cleveland, I'll set a tractor on fire
Chisenhall does have one walk this year.
I am deeply dissapointed with your deep dissapointment. Where's your 2010 list that accurately predicted the future?
Thanks as always for the great work, Jason.
Any thoughts on Thomas Neal? I know he isn't a potential top 100 guy or anything, but I was surprised the Indians got as much as they did for a 2 months of Orlando Cabrera.
I don't know where else one could go to get such a comprehensive writeup on AZL prospects. Thanks again, Jason, great stuff as always.
Parks did a fantastic article about this a couple of months ago. If you can find that, it will have all your answers about scouting catchers.
Chen has a strong arm, but his mechanics are inconsistent, especially his transfer. I've had him as fast as 1.85 and as slow as 2.2. Most of them are in the 2.0 range. In contrast, Kinston's Roberto Perez is consistently in the 1.8 range and I've had him as low as 1.7. If you're looking for a defensive catcher who does EVERYTHING right, Perez is your guy. Just wish he had Chen's bat.
Based on what the scouts in attendance were saying, the ESPN2 gun was reading at least 2 MPH high.
Most remarkable thing about the Kinston-Myrtle Beach game; both catchers caught all 23 innings. Kinston's Roberto Perez went 4-9 with a HR and he scored all 3 runs including the game winner after leading off the 23rd with a single. I'm thinking he earned the day off today, but Kinston has a doubleheader!
Please, please tell me the Indians aren't going to take Jed Bradley if Lindor is on the board at #8.
I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark haired women and breakfast foods.
Wonder if poor Adam Miller will make the second half of this list.
Yes, because CC and Lee were ready to sign contracts for $5 mil per year each. That decison of Wood over CC and Lee really came back to bite Shapiro...can't believe he did that.
An all haiku piece?
No wonder Buffum and Kev
Get along so well
But a wildly entertaining minor league manager.
God I hope so...
Columbus and Lake County won titles, Kinston was in the playoffs and Akron just missed. Columbus not only won the IL but the AAA championship game as well.
They had a lot of movement within the system this year, which makes continuity difficult, but still had quite a bit of success by any measure.
True that Randall Delgado isn't in the AFL this year, but is there any particular reason you have to be such a jerk about it? You're really complaining that a guy who does a DAILY roundup of prospect performances throughout the season, in addition to regular full columns, is lazy???
Any sentiment for Jason Kipnis at 2B? I'll concede Segura's great year, but Kipnis is arguably the best OF-turned-2B out of the 2009 draft so far.
Absolute, 100%, no-doubt Hall of Famer. Hopefully wearing an Indians cap.
Why does there have to be a Montero comment every single day? Did all the Yankee fans get together to play a joke on the rest of us? We get it, he's a really, really good hitter. Point conceded.
Better high A closer...Smyth or Cory Burns? By that of course I mean which one is more likely to have a major league career.
"I'm out all day today so talk amongst yourselves on this one"
---K. Goldetein, July 22, 2010
He still throws the splitter, and has brought back a slider that he pretty much abandonded after high school so he actually has a 3-pitch mix now instead of just the two.
Its big, especially in the power alleys, and its in the Carolina League.
Any sentiment for Lonnie Chisenhall? And yes, I realize I sound like a total homer in bringing him up.
Joe Smith's numbers may look OK, but that's only due to a careful usage pattern. He's a ROOGY for all intents and purposes...the guy can't get lefties out.
"...Carlos Carrasco, who's perhaps the prospect most on the spot from the increasingly awful-looking trade of Cliff Lee..."
Why is this "increasingly awful-looking?" Carrasco struggled, but Knapp is expected to be healthy for spring training, Donald has a great chance to rebound into a top-100 prospect at 2B if he stays healthy, and Marson showed he can be at worst a top backup catcher. Compared to the return the Phillies got when they dealt Lee, I'd say the deal is looking better than the day the Indians made it.
What are the chances Jason Donald gets 200 AB's in Cleveland this year? He was seen as more of a prospect than Valbuena until an injury-marred 2009, so if Valbuena still continues to put up platoon-type splits against lefties, I can see Donald getting quite a few AB's in the 2nd half.
Wieters is better defensively (and offensively for that matter) and is a year younger, so I'd guess the edge will go to Wieters. Santana should still be a stud though.
I\'m wondering how Trevor Crowe is ranked ahead of Brantley? Brantley has put up better numbers at the same level as Crowe, and at a younger age. I\'m a big Indians fan, but I don\'t see Crowe as a top-15 prospect in the organization right now.
Would Carlos Santana or Jon Meloan have made this list?
Hughes is startign the opener today
Great stuff, excited for the AFL to get going! If anyone is interested in a rundown of the Indians prospects in the AFL, check out http://indianstopprospects.blogspot.com/ for a preview.