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Couldn't decide on Anibal?
Just to get a jump on the 3rd Ed., who is saving games for the Rays in April and May?
I heard Stassi's injury may mean Gattis catches some April games. My league gives positional eligibility after one game in season. Do you think Gattis catches in April and how much should catcher eligibility impact his value?
"His K:<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> ratio in 2013 was 48:191. This season he improved that to 44:98."
This might be a typo. 191 walks in one season would deserve its own article.
There's an error suggesting Shandler could have had Tulo if he bid $40. He'd have only pushed Podhorzer's price higher, since Podhorzer bid $73.
With the seven game schedule next week for a few teams, aren't some of the two-week starters unannounced, but obvious? For Detroit, the two SP not pitching this weekend will be home to Seattle and at Boston. For Seattle, its two SP not pitching this weekend will be at Detroit and home to Toronto.
I've also seen it announced that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brian+Johnson">Brian Johnson</a></span> will face Shoemaker on Monday, which means Shoemaker draws vs Bos, vs Tex and Heaney draws vs Min, vs Tex (unless Weaver is activated by week end. Johnson will be @OC and vs. Det. Boston's remaining SP will be @Hou and vs. Det.
I know age can vary widely for international prospects and is relevant to the prospect value. What are the ages for these players?
Sorry, I see him. He is showing up as RF, which kept him off the OF list.
Did something happen to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48892">Seth Smith</a></span>?
Robertson made his debut in 2016? There's a lot to like about that statement.
I have trouble admitting when I am wrong? The answer seemed completely logical accept for that statement. Maybe you would have an easier time admitting it if you were wrong more often. Make an extra effort to do something wrong today and then own it. If you can change, and Roger Goodell can change, then we can all change.
Nothing of note happening in Halo land this week?
Did Toronto return Dickey to the Mets? Did they get a refund?
The third question/answer for the Red Sox is confusing. Andrew: Nava hits lefties better and Gomes hits rights better, Zachary: so Nava should hit solely against rights this year. Someone is turned around.
For this article (or other free agent articles), it would be nice to have a line identifying what the player's current team could be expected to do to replace the free agent. For example, if Elsbury is leaving the Red Sox, as rumored, is his replacement expected to be Nava, a minor leaguer, or someone in trade. It would appear from this article that the expectation is they are losing one of the top table setters in the league with no intention to replace his bat through free agency.
If you have to take a lesson from this Red Sox team, it would be keeping your best players healthy can be worth a 25 game swing in the standings. Not sure the Sox did anything in the trainer's room worth imitating on that front, but there is real competitive value in exploring/researching/evaluating techniques to keep players healthy.
You seem overly preoccupied with people accusing you of bias. Perhaps you should try tapping.
It seems interesting that it is easy for outside organizations to determine the program is producing wins, but difficult internally. I would think, at the outset, it would be much harder for outside organizations to separate regular improvement from noise.
I like the idea generally. Sport commentators regularly dismiss motivational factors in a game because if you needed guy X on team Y to say that to get you motivated, you aren't professional enough to play at this level. The impact of motivation is not what players do during the game, it is what they do between games. Learning, harnessing talent, planning for the next game, etc. Giving players a meal at a designated time helps get them to the field on time and ready to work.
Is Brett Anderson a middle reliever for the remainder of the season in your mind, or is he taking someone's rotation slot. I see him being brought back as the former and, if that is the case, I think I'd rather a Roy Halladay lottery ticket.
The 2004?? First Round?
Adrian Beltre is listed 15th and as just missed. Should his name be replaced in one of these locations with another name?
Is there a BP page that shows current 2013 player values similar to your 2012 tabulation?
LRRRLLRRRL. Come on 60%
When they come back, who do Wada and Chen boot from the rotation. I assume the answer begins "Garcia and ..." And I hope than answer does not end "Gausman".
Yelich, Marlins, but you knew that.
The only part of this analysis that is different from last summer is Crawford has had his first good month in that 7-year contract. Everyone knew Adrian Gonzalez was a great player playing under a fair contract and he had to be surrendered to unload Beckett and Crawford and $200MM in obligations to those two. The Sox replaced Beckett, Crawford, and Gonzalez with Dubront, Victorino, and Napoli for about $200MM less (or $40MM less in 2013). And while the decisions to spend that money can result in mistakes, the bet is that they can make less than $200MM of mistakes given another chance.
In terms of what they got in return for their trades, don't forget the Sox got six years of Beckett (which included a World Series victory) and two years of Crawford and Gonzalez during the primes of their careers. And they gave up minor leaguers to get them, which are always a crapshoot.
And if we're going to judge this trade based on performance for the first 6 weeks of 2013, we should note the Sox are 5 over .500 and the Dodgers, with the prohibitive 2013 NL Cy Young favorite and this $60MM of 2013 talent, are 6 under .500, with the Sox projected to win more games than the Dodgers by year's end according to the Playoff Odds report.
A little indecisive on Beckett?
Relative to the first question, I play in a league in a similar league in which pitching is hoarded. It is a 12-team mixed league with seven starting pitchers. Last year, the top pitcher was worth 23 points/start, the top closer was worth 25 points/wk (we overvalue saves), the 120th best pitcher (Mike Fiers) was worth 15 points/start, and the 25th best closer (Aceves) was worth 16 points/wk. Even Ervin Santana or Ivan Nova or Josh Beckett were worth 12-13 points/start. In a two start week, these bastions of mediocre starting pitching were worth as much as the NL Cy Young winner in a one start week, on average. And a weak closer was better than a mediocre starter.
We hoard starting pitching to maximize two-start opportunities. If your league hoards starting pitching, maybe there are similar advantages.
I'm not sure PECOTA has accounted for players who started the season injured properly. Granderson's rest of the year prediction took a dive compared to the season prediction of a few days ago, despite the fact that he was not expected to have logged any time yet. I think if he were expected to play 70% of the season before the year started, PECOTA is now expecting him to play 70% of the remainder of the season.
For Boegarts, 7-14 with 14 strikeouts seems like there may be a misprint.
A little less love for Mitch Moreland than Ron Washington has shown. You expect Berkman to get more PT than Moreland?
Near as I can tell, every pitch except the change-up is less successful this year than it has been in the past for Lester. And he's relying on it much more than he has in years past.
I can't tell from the strike zone charts and related text how you think Lester needs to alter the location of his pitches or 'change the mixture'. Is there something else that is working that you think he should do more of? If the fastball/cutter mixture has worked for 6 years, should it be scrapped over half a year of scuffling for something without a track record of success? And how much of this is luck vs. a 2% uptick in balls in play for the cutter?
If the curveball is successful, but he's ignoring it, than I can understand the bullheaded complaint. Instead, it seems empty without a more substantive suggestion for better performance. If he went the other way and dropped the fastball/cutter usage to 40% versus rights with the same lackluster results, we'd be scolding him for getting away from what made him successful. A suggestion for success needs to be more than, "stop doing what you are doing because you are failing."
If I were a betting man, I'd wager Tuesday will feature the 24th outfield, with Ross activated and in right, Kalish in center, a selection from Nava/McDonald/Podsednik in LF.
86 Ks in 243 innings for Brett Jackson? Was that supposed to be ABs or PAs?
26th worst is actually pretty good out of 30 teams. What you wouldn't want to be is 26th best or 5th worst.
Is Below starting for Detroit or Fister? I read Fister is getting the two starts and Below is staying in the pen.
I watched Dwight Evans during the Hriniak years. Loved imitating the pigeon toed stance playing wiffle ball.
As an example, if the new format permitted comments, I could leave a snarky remark asking when you expected BJ Upton to be activated so you could remove him from the list. With no comment opportunity, your life has one more void.
You'll want to change 1.9K/9 to 1.9BB/9 referencing Darvish's walk rate in Japan.
You don't think Joe Nathan is the succession plan for the Rangers? Or, in the alternative, are you suggesting that Mike Adams (turning 34 this year) will succeed Joe Nathan at some point after this season?
To the extent it is a loophole, it is a loophole to the player's benefit. The tester did not mail the sample in a timely enough manner. If you don't believe his sample was tampered with, then you believe that Braun's sample was positive for PED, which is supposed to merit suspension.
Branyan is still younger than Jeter or Rivera, so he's got that.
I keep seeing this at the beginning of articles, "These are the first base fantasy rankings for 2011." What do these rankings have to do with 2011?
Kevin, after seeing the Royals' Futures Game, are you rethinking Lamb's ranking over Montgomery. These things are always in a state of flux, but you seemed to come away doubting Lamb.
Why is it Minnesota's starting second baseman has predicted stats here, but not on his player card? Does PECOTA not do Japanese players yet and so we are staying away? He isn't even selectable in the Team Tracker.
I'm guessing that's the size of the wager.
Did PECOTA take NY's injured first baseman into account? If so, how much of an impact does that injury represent?
Was the Salinger crack because he is a recluse or because he's dead? Is there a living recluse that can carry the torch for future reclusive humor?
Curious about the status of new National Maya. Pineda's pitch counts seem to be winding down - are they prepping him to relieve in Seattle in September or just winding him down on the season. Anyone from the preseason Top 101 not in the majors, injured, or getting mentioned?
Has Maya pitched in the GCL yet?
Haven't seen any comments anywhere in Baseball Prospectus on Maya, the recent National acquisition from Cuba. How good is he?
I noticed after only one rehab start, Derek Holland was taken off the DL and sent to the minors. Was removing him from the DL a required move (e.g., his rehab period began before his first minor league start) or is this a cost saving move by a bankrupt team (reducing him from major league pay to minor league pay)?
Two NBA concussions last night. Any thoughts on: 1) need for protection; or 2) how long those players should be held out?
What are the Rangers doing with Teagarden? Is their plan really just to stick him in OKC and let him play once every 4 days?
I'm agreeing with this comment more than replying to it. Saves are more plentiful for teams in pitchers' parks (lower scores, closer games). Also, some closers have a stronger hold on the job than others. There was talk of moving Wood. If Francisco breaks down once, does Feliz take that role. Oakland has had two 'surprise' closers over the past two years. The five star guys seem safe (won't lose job without UCL tear), but I'm not sure the four star guys are quite as safe (under what situation does Soriano lose the job to Howell, for instance). How does that play in?
In general, yes. But I think Burnett is revealing a little bit more about his personal motivation here. His best pitch is his fastball. If his second pitch is the curve, perhaps he feels he is getting beat too frequently with his second offering. If that is true, then he is trying to give himself more options so that hitters cannot sit on his second pitch.
When you don't get the canned answers, sometimes it is an opportunity to learn a bit more about the players.
I haven't read the comments, so I don't know if I am repeating hear.
How about applying a plus and/or minus after a player's name within the tiers, just to give everyone an idea who you favor in those tiers and who may have backed in. The fact that the pluses and/or minuses do not follow any order may help clue people in that the listed order is not meaningful.
I'm fine with the system used in the first two days (and who leaves comments to not complain), but you did seem to indicate in the text that some of the tier members were stronger than others, so that might as well be reflected in the listing.
I have to agree with cdmyers here. Without implying that the selection bias was premeditated, it has the effect of making the conclusion self-evident. If the point you were trying to make is that teams need more than 5 starters to get through a season so losing the battle for 5th is not a huge imposition, it is a fair point and it deserves to be framed differently.
Looking for the exact point in the column, this - "A more basic question we could ask about all of these battles is whether the ostensible winner will end up pitching more than the loser. Put slightly differently, what difference is there between the pitcher who pitches the fifth-most starts on a team and the pitcher who pitches the sixth-most starts?" isn't as slight a difference as you set out (again, just my opinion).
If you want to look at 5th and 6th starter battles from last spring, you may wind up with a very different conclusion. The veterans that lose the competition (e.g., Colon) may end up getting waived, while young players with options can be sent down and saved for in season, and others get to while away in relief. Who were the winners and losers of these camp battles last year? I think you'd find the losers do not consistently wind up ranking in that team's top 6 GS (guessing 50-60% do). In particular, I'm guessing players without options that lose that battle become roster footnotes.
I would like to encourage everyone that donates to donate to an established, charitable organization they recognize. There are some despicable individuals that have profited from initiating 'donation enterprises' during times like this and pocketing significant portions of the donations.
Giving to established organizations like these is the best way to insure your money goes to serve the needs of those suffering.
Here's a projection chart for you:
5 star - Makes a ML roster at some point. More likely than not to have a career exceeding 5 years.
4 star - Role player. Starts for a team with low expectations.
3 star - Quad-A player. Peaks with a "free [Player X]" story and/or a September call-up.
2 star - Insurance/car salesman with some wonderful war stories.
1 star - Insurance/car salesman with a wonderful war story.
Think of 'Perfect World Projection' in the context of the 90th percentile in PECOTA. Not the absolute ceiling, but most will fall short.
The thinking here is that the Sox are going to let Bay walk and replace him with ... a farm hand? With Holliday out there and Granderson available for trade, the Sox don't have any interest in filling that gaping outfield and lineup hole? While the Yankees are going after both, and Damon and Marquis and Holliday? Interesting. Another NY winter measured in large fractions of billions of dollars.
Isn't it also a possibility that Ramos allows the Twins to keep Mauer, but play him in some sort of C/3B or C/DH or C/OF job share arrangement that helps protect Mauer's legs, a la Victor Martinez? The Twins get too few good bats to feel unnecessarily pressured to move one.
And Desme brought down his BABIP yesterday (0-1 on balls in play).
Don't look now, but there is a "this is why we made the trade" moment on deck.
Why yank Eyre after 10 pitches/3 outs? Too many good arms in the Philly bullpen to leave one in that is performing well?
Not quite. Your .75 runs is the amount Philly is expected to score in the bottom of the third. If true, Colorado still leads 1 - .75 after three full. And why add .45 for an extra half inning?
Here's the progression:
1) Bases empty, no outs. Expected Philly runs in the 3rd: .45. Colorado favored 52%-48%.
2) Man on first, no outs. Expected Philly runs in the 3rd: .75. Philly favored 52%-48%.
3) Bases empty, two outs. Expected Philly runs in the 3rd: .10. Colorado favored 57%-43%.
Basically, each quarter run for Philly in third seems to be worth about 4% in the favorites line. But a quarter run lead for Colorado (step 2 in the progression) is not enough to be favored in the game.
Great link to cite back to though.
Nice inning for Eyre to keep the Phillies in the game.
Following along on the ESPN Gamecast. After 2.5 innings, Gamecast listed Colorado as the predicted winner (52%). Aaron Cook then walked Hamels on 5 pitches and the predicted winner was changed to Philly (52%). Rollins' double play swings it back to Colorado (57%).
I don't know the formula used for these predictions, but it seems some pretty innocuous events are generating sharp swings in the prediction.
I understand wanting to use the 3rd order winning percentage to remove the luck, but I don't think it should be in the final form of the statistic. GMs don't get paid for expected wins, they get paid for wins and they have to hope the luck will average out. We don't recalculate slash stats based on line drive/gb/fb/bip percentages, we calculate slash stats based on results. Performance stats should grade out results. MR/eMR could be reduced to MeM.
How about incorporating some minor league statistics? Kevin does a nice job each day giving a blurb on players that have great individual nights, but it'd be nice to track players during the year.
Joe, I'll play your Goodell suggestion another way. The Times story could have been planted by a Red Sox owner (yes, I know). It was going to come out at some point. Sandwich it within big trades and accept that it has come out after ARod has already been outed this year and this is Manny's second outing of the year and this could result in NFL-level mock outrage.
If you wanted attention, the time to run the story was at the start of the All-Star break, when there are no other sports stories to report. This story gets pushed to the backburner and forgotten with a Haladay trade. The timing is counterproductive to a splash. Spring training (after football and before March Madness), playoffs, the break, and any other occasions when most/all teams are not playing baseball, that's when small stories get big headlines.
If you the Union chief and you agreed to release the 103 player list, when would be the ideal time to release it so that it didn't have legs? A few days before the Super Bowl (it would probably initiate football steroids talk)? Dec. 23rd? The day of the play-in game for the NCAA tourney? When something big is going to happen that most people would rather pay attention to.
The problem with the Alderson deal isn't that the Giants were counting on him to be a key part of the rotation. The problem was it appears they undervalued him because he doesn't look as good as Cain, Bumgarner, or Lincecum. An Alderson should have fetched more of a bat. It should have been a centerpiece to bring in Holliday or Dunn, or they should have been able to acquire Sanchez or a similar improvement at less of a cost.
Just because you have a surplus in one area doesn't mean you should give away some of the assets in the surplus for fifty cents on the dollar. That's what this is. The Giants can afford to part with Alderson and will improve with Sanchez, but that doesn't make it a good deal.
Similar thought to SC, opposite slant. If Heyward is ready to come up now, not unlike Beckham earlier this year, are the Braves limiting themselves by waiting until September to make the call? Particularly when their biggest need is more offense?
Ought not the Aughties be the Aughts?
Has BJ Ryan been released?
I liked the information presented, but I felt it wanting in a couple of ways. When you are jumping back and forth between two time periods, it can get very confusing. In particular, there are various lines identifying various years, while other sentences site periods of years. If a picture is worth a thousand words, it felt like you were trying to take the charts at the bottom of the page and explain each in 500 words.
I haven't looked at the constraints placed on you for this week's effort, but that data could have been explained more clearly by placing a relevant chart/graph or two early in the article, then identifying the elements of the chart that you found most interesting. This approach leans on the visual to help tie together what you are saying.
The other piece I was left wanting is judgment. Has the base stealing pendulum swung too far to the conservative side? Oakland has moved into the middle of the league in stolen base attempts, where they used to trail the league significantly. And that's with a AL worst OBP. Is this shift something the A's are trying to exploit? Jack Cust picked up the second stolen base of his season and his career last night. Kurt "the slower" Suzuki has 3 SBs this year, bringing his career total to 5.
What is your opinion? I'm Seattle's manager. I have Ichiro "the speedy" Suzuki on first in the bottom of the first with no one out. I have a league average pitcher going up against a league average pitcher, with a league average catcher behind the plate. I don't know if the game will be decided by one run or ten. Do I steal? If the break even mark for value is 70% success, shouldn't I steal almost every time in this situation? If I think Ichiro is successful 80% of the time in this situation (hypothetically invented number), don't I have to go if your 1999-2002 numbers approximate the state of the game today (the value of a steal had dropped to .018 wins, while each caught stealing cost .043 wins)? How many wins did Seattle leave on the table last season by not stealing more aggressively with Ichiro? This is what I was seeking at the end of your article. Synthesize the numbers and tell me not just what managers have done, but what they should be doing.
This has to violate some type of word count limit.
Assuming similar signing dates, who is the first AL arm into the majors? White, Turner, Jenkins, or none of the above?
Why is it most talking heads seem to think Barry Madoff made the decistion to scam various wealthy people with some sort of casual malice? We completely vilify him without any consideration for WHY he might have done what he did. Somehow I doubt that Madoff scammed them because he hated them and wanted to give a giant middle finger to the wealthy. All this moral granstanding makes me absolutely sick. I can't believe con artists make the decision to scam people lightly. Why can no one picture them sitting in their apartment with their burger flipping paycheck, agonizing over the decision to run a con. Afraid they may never live the lifestyle they desire. Maybe they go out and live to the best of their abilities while family and acquaintences look down their noses at them. Now add in the fact that con artists can frequently get away with it and you see other people gaming the system. How many of you can say, in the very least, you wouldn't lie, cheat, or steal for an extra buck if you thought you could get away with it? Imagine the cons had conversations with their wives, best friends, maybe even parents about what to do. For some of these guys, this decision could mean the difference between living comfortably or selling used cars for 40 years. In that situation, I don't know what choice I would make. I'd like to think I'd take the high road and stay clean, but that's just not being honest with myself. I think there's a good chance I'd run a Ponzi scheme. I just wish the media would put themselves in the place of Madoff making the decision rather than demonizing him for a choice they've never had to make. One last question to ask yourself, would you trade 5, 10, 20 years of incarceration to have lived the life of Madoff in his hey day?
I had a hard time chosing between con artist, Vegas prostitute, pot dealer, and corrupt politician. So many good morality-based thought questions where we shouldn't judge those that make questionable decisions.
Surprising things: I saw Dwight Evans, my favorite Red Sox player growing up, hit an inside-the-park homerun the day after Wade Boggs accomplished the same feat. This was about the time Evans was converting to first base because he no longer had the wheels to man right field. Both homeruns came against Bo Jackson's Royals.
A guilty pleasure at the ballpark (I know this wasn't the question) is chanting "Yankees Suck" with the crowd at Fenway (an activity that has diminished with the expiration of the inferiority complex). It was crude, inaccurate, and inappropriate with all the kids that attend games, but the guilt has to come with some sense of wrong.
Other guilty pleasures include the more unique batting stances and pitching deliveries. Some of the players that employed them were successful, but I don't think the pleasure correlated with the success. Julio Franco held the bat over his head pointed at the pitcher. Larry Parish and Sam Horn held the bat too far forward, cocking the bat after the pitcher started the wind-up (a quality beer league approach). Ricky Henderson's squat stance. Ichiro holding the bat out toward the pitcher before settling in. The leg kicks of Dontrelle and El Duque. The delivery of Valenzuela. Sidearmers and submarine pitchers. And, of course, memorizing and mimicking every quirky stance or delivery while playing wiffleball.
Maybe the Padres took this offer from the White Sox and shared it with the press to grease the wheels for Vitters. Nothing a team hates more than losing a chance at a star player because of a crosstown rival.
No predictatron this year?
This doesn\'t look like a rule change to me. This looks like a progression in addressing a rule. Others may have been in a different situation. For example, the Red Sox may have told (and had the right to tell) other teams that they would not negotiate a sign and trade. Similarly, I don\'t think the Brewers would have cooperated to allow CC to leave. The end result may be, should be, that Type A free agents like Varitek or Hudson accept arbitration in the future or work harder to get deals made sooner.
The power in this deal is still held by the Diamondbacks. They can refuse to negotiate, but if the cost of a first round pick is more than a team is willing to surrender, then Cruz or Hudson will go unsigned, hurting both the Diamondbacks and the player. The MLBPA is simply putting one more tool in the team toolbox. Football has done the same thing with the franchise tag, although the sacrificial picks are so valued in the NFL that a franchised player cannot change teams without a trade.
I don\'t think you can count on the MLBPA to be this cooperative every year. I don\'t think you can count on teams or players to want to work this type of deal (essentially becoming a three-entity negotiation for \'free\' agency). Thus, it seems more like a gaming of the rules than a rule change, and rule gaming happens all the time.
But saying everyone cheated is so much easier. Then, everyone\'s numbers must be given full credibility because no one\'s advantage was unfair (or no one had an advantage). Why must we let the truth get in the way of the simple?
You are not complicit if you are not participating in the players using PEDs and you do not think it is a story that should be told. I think where the media (which feels like one big, hulking entity in this article, as opposed to thousands of independently thinking individuals moving in various directions) gets Joe\'s goat is that they had to be aware of players using PEDs, ignored it, and then reported the acts years later with shock and disappointment. The shock seems misrepresented. If, later on, you write about PED usage and protect some players while standing in judgment of others, you will be misrepresenting the truth. Frankly, I think you need to read every article you write about PED usage and wonder if the knowledge you withhold on the subject you are covering is affecting your ability to produce an honest report.
The issue here is not complicity so much as journalistic integrity. The shock and disappointment of some members of the \'media\' is disingenuous and dishonest.
With regard to the second round of 240, is it possible Orza was challenging the test processes/results of certain samples taken. If certain locales (e.g., Texas) produced significantly more than 5-7% seen elsewhere, perhaps a request was made to run the tests again. Or may the positives were tested a second time against enough of a \'clean\' population so that the retest did not implicate anyone. Perhaps they were making some type of effort to get under the threshold.
Joe recognizes that it is unfair and, in some circumstances, illegal.
As a not so quick aside, remember McGwire was caught with some variety of supplement in his locker years ago that was on the MLB allowed list and available over the counter. The item is no longer MLB approved, but I don\'t think it is illegal. Some substances are not MLB approved, but remain lawfully attainable. Also, bear in mind, some substances that are illegal in the US and not allowed by MLB are legally obtainable in other countries. If you are concerned a player broke the law, make sure you pay attention to the substance identified by the posititive test and the laws regulating that substance.
Anyway, the point is that players and teams have tried to cheat in the past and have tried to skirt the law. Players have produced forged documents to lie about their ages. Players have doctored the balls and bats. Teams have used video cameras to steal signs (the NFL, for some reason, frowns on this more than baseball, but makes up for it by not caring as much about steroids). The point is (as I take it from reading Joe\'s articles), Joe doesn\'t believe steroid use has affected the integrity of the game any more than these other violations and that the present witch hunt is media driven hypocrasy.
I would disagree, at least to say that I think the witch hunt is fan driven, not media driven. I think the media has had their collective heads in the sand for thirty years, whether it was steroids, greenies, or some other medicinal effort at an advantage. Plenty of clubhouse antics are published, but these were not because the media that saw them knew the activities were were wrong and did not want to get ostracized from the clubhouse by the team(s) they covered (which would require usage to be commonplace in the locker room). I don\'t think the league, the teams, the players, or the media realized fans would react so differently to steroids than they have to corked bats and scuffed balls. The media wouldn\'t bother if no one cared. Congress wouldn\'t bother if no one cared (Arlen Spectre tried and failed to get Congressional involvement in the NFL Patriots\' spygate - stealing signs doesn\'t resonate the same way). It may not even be a majority of the fans, but, for whatever the reason, enough baseball fans care about steroid use that A-Rod is a story and Rodney Harrison is not. Arnold can be elected governor, but McGwire cannot enter the Hall.
I think this issue is analagous to looking up box scores in the 20\'s and improving the historical accuracy of statistics of those players. The everyday fan probably doesn\'t care if Tris Speaker was credited with four more hits than he actually deserved, but some fans do.
When talking about Bonds twenty years from now, it would be nice to be able to discuss his impact on the game without having to discuss whether or not he took steroids, which some continue to deny because no \'adequate\' proof has been produced. I don\'t believe acquisition of this information is worth effort of federal authorities (who have other motives, presumably), but if a blood or urine test shows he had THG in his system in 2003, I do think that is useful information for baseball fans that enjoy discussing the history of the game.
Now the discussion can move from \'if he took steroids, do we care?\' or \'assuming he took steroids, do we care?\' to \'he took steroids, do we care?\'
Team: Red Sox
Principal Owner: John Henry
School: UCLA (did not graduate); Victor Valley Senior High
Why: Grew up on a soybean farm. Earned his money as a commodities trader for John W. Henry & Company. Born in Illinois, he was a long time Cardinals fan delighted by both entrants in the 2004 World Series.
Owner/Chairman: Tom Werner
Why: One half of the Carsey-Werner group that produced The Cosby Show, That 70s Show, Third Rock, and Rosanne, among other programs. Werner controls NESN, the network televising Red Sox games.
Owner/CEO: Larry Lucchino
School: Princeton, Yale Law School
Why: Part of the Final Four Princeton team in 1965. Worked on the Watergate impeachment with Hillary Clinton. General Counsel for the Redskins in the late 80s, has worked primarily in baseball management since. Not sure how significant or slight his ownership interest is, but he\'s the most visible owner and most dispisable member of management.
\'Gentlemen\'s Agreement\' sounds synonymous with collusion. Is there an anti-trust exemption that allows competitors (MLB) to collude to avoid hiring a non-US citizen? If some teams avoided bidding on Tazawa for this \'gentlemen\'s agreement\', then arguably he could have earned more if no collusion were in place.
Not sure the Tazawa signing will bear fruit for the Sox, but I\'m not a fan of \'gentlemen\'s agreements\' in labor signings. The term used when we like the player whose pay is marginalized by a gentlemen\'s agreement is collusion.
I would be curious (Maury?) if Tazawa would have had an anti-trust claim or some other claim against MLB if teams had refused to sign him based on the gentlemen\'s agreement.
Yankees, 6/166, 1/1/09
Red Sox: Assess health of Beckett, Papelbon, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz and replace/back-up as needed; Find a C; Continue developing talent to fill gaps.
Joe, if you\'d dropped a comment McCarver had made about the Yankees in here, you probably could have set a high water mark for comments in an unfiltered posts that would have stood for a while.
Many Red Sox fans have let the Manny thing drop. We can forget about him, ignore him, move on. The issue comes when, after watching him day in and day out in a Sox uniform, people paying far less attention to him tell us we are imagining things, Manny was being a good soldier, and the Boston front office was planting seeds in the media to pretend Manny was being a problem when he wasn\'t. Dinosaurs once roamed the Earth, man has stepped on the moon, and Manny was being a pain to get out of Boston. If you deny these facts, you will get a response and it won\'t be agreement.
Theo \'quit\' on the team when his contract expired (or a day or so before hand). If Manny wanted to leave in a monkey suit when his contract expired, that was his perogative.
When was the last time a team suspended a player without pay? Thanks to the strength of the MLBPA, Myers can go drum on his wife\'s face and get a paid leave. The Sox were going to suspend him without pay for refusing to play because his knees hurt? The best they could have done is suspend him with pay. That\'ll teach him to not play in a game, we\'ll make him sit one out. You don\'t think I know baseball, give me a free year\'s subscription to this site. Go ahead, I dare you. That\'s right, then you must agree with me.
Rivera threw him a pitch inside and, shocked because he likes to guess at pitches, he watched two more strikes?! I mean come on, we\'ve heard the apologists and the apologists\' apologists, but none of them are going to stand with you on this one. Manny has refused to PH in the past when he was supposed to get a day off. He is a Hall of Fame right-handed hitter, one of the best right handed hitters and history, with about 9000 plate appearances under his belt ... and he struck out because Rivera threw the first pitch on the inside part of the plate? I do not recall Manny striking out on three watched pitches, without a ball, ever. Ever. If he\'s done that five times in his career, I\'ll be shocked.
The options for Manny should not be making out to be Beaver Cleaver or Moussolini. He is a Hall of Fame hitter, one of the best hitters of his era (although his laissez-faire attitude has kept him from seriously contending for an MVP), he helped end the \'curse\' and bring two championships to Boston, and he made a conscious effort to motivate the Boston FO to drop the options, sign him to an extension, or trade him. The effort infected the clubhouse, upset Francona, was discussed almost daily for over a month by numerous Boston media members, and lost him some love from an overenthusiastic fan base. We are not hanging him by his intestines - McCarver complained. We are not going to forget he helped the team win championships or thought more of himself than his team when his worst case scenario was having to play in Boston next year for $20m.
Sorry if our handling of this experience has bothered you, but I don\'t expect your input will be altering our fan behaviors.
2008 Bay wasn\'t a downgrade from 2008 Manny. 2008 Manny had an OPS a hair over 900 for the Sox and Bay was a hair under 900 for the Sox. According to the \'quality of opposition\' stat, Bay faced tougher pitching in a Sox uniform than Manny did (attributable to a scheduling quirk), which can account for most of the OPS difference. If LA Manny were hitting the same as 2008 Bos Manny, we\'d feel better about the trade being for equal talent.
Trying looks like .398/.489/.743
The intentional strikeout incident occurred July 6th, a day after Manny had been hit three times. In the ninth inning, with two out, Francona had Manny pinch hit against Mariano Rivera. Three pitches later, Manny was out without removing the bat from his shoulder - no check swings, no leaning toward the plate as the ball was coming in, no motion whatsoever that he was contemplating swinging at any of the pitches. Maybe he was waiting for that first splitter that dove out of the strike zone to go by before he swung.
I\'ve been a Sox fan since before Manny donned the uniform. He rarely seemed to go all out racing for fly balls, he occasionally jogged down the line on ground balls. Otherwise, he seemed to hustle on the basepaths and give his full effort at the plate.
It was reported the team had problems with him in the bowing out of games with phantom injuries (Manny took his 3 days off between July 22-26th). It was reported the team had trouble getting him on a flight during a west coast trip that included Seattle (I think it was the July 20th flight from Anaheim/LA to Seattle). And if he is bowing out of games to encourage the team not to pick up his options in September and October, what recourse do you have?
McCarver probably doesn\'t make his statement if Manny hadn\'t hit half as well in Dodger blue as he has. All the numbers dwarf his 2008 Sox campaign. I willing to call the difference the opportunity to face weaker pitching, many pitchers seeing him for the first time, and statistical aberation, but when you develop a reputation of someone who doesn\'t give his team 100%, doubt seeps into other areas.
Looking at other numbers, Manny has more stolen bases for the Dodgers than he\'s had for the last three years with the Sox. He recorded more PO/gm for the Dodgers than he had in any season with the Sox. Not sure where to find the stat, but I suspect he has more infield singles with the Dodgers than he\'s had the last two years with the Sox. His OPS jumped 300 points by moving from the bandbox to the ravine. His DP% was 18.6 last year, 14.6 for the Sox this year, and 10% for the Dodgers. The baserunning stats on BP do not separate Manny\'s performance in each league, so I cannot use those numbers effectively.
Again, I do not know definitely that Manny has made more of an effort for the Dodgers than the Sox. I think he has. But lets not confusing McCarver being an idiot with Manny making an effort. If McCarver said Bush is a bad President because he isn\'t throwing enough money to Wall Street, I don\'t have to argue Bush is a good President to disagree with McCarver\'s underlying information. Similarly, I don\'t have to say Manny tried just as hard in Boston as in LA this season just because McCarver\'s evidence is deficient. And maybe Manny didn\'t dog it. Maybe he\'s tried just as hard for Boston in \'08 as he did in \'04 and \'07, but he appears to be trying harder in LA. Manny played well for the Sox and materially better for the Dodgers. I don\'t know how you mathematically prove/disprove \'trying\'.
Joe, you\'d like to \"see what trying looks like?\" .398/.489/.743 (LAN) - your numeric \'projections\' were pretty close. The near-Yankee sweep you mentioned included one game Manny bowed out of for soreness, the second Yankee game he bowed out of in July, leaving him with 3 hits and 5 total bases for the series. I\'m not sure he put them on his back with two doubles and a single in a 7 run win. Manny made a positive contribution to the 2008 Sox, we don\'t need to McCarve up the facts to make that very obvious point.
Not sure Manny deserved to be batting fourth. Youklis was outhitting Manny from April 1 through July 31. And the decision to bat Bay sixth may have also reflected management\'s desire to defuse the Manny/Bay comparisons.
For those fans of Bill Simmons, he revisits the Manny deal in an article posted on ESPN today. He may have a \'Boston media\' angle more to your liking.
Baserunning rule of thumb - If you get thrown out easily by a terrible, high arcing throw 20 feet off the mark, you shouldn\'t have gone.
We\'ve seen the real speedsters come home from second on a sacrifice fly or wild pitch, but that doesn\'t make it a good play for everyone to try to come home from second on a sac fly. A player needs to know their limitations and run station to station if that is all they can do. After the bloop, Scioscia could have been reminded of Vlad\'s limitations and pinch run with a player who would have scored from second on any type of single, but Vlad took that possibility out of his coach\'s hands.
You don\'t want to get too down on a guy trying to make a hustle play for a team that emphasizes hustle plays, but it was a critical mistake.
I am not sure your data analysis reflected your query. You really only looked at pitchers that have \'made it\'. Lee doesn\'t fit in that category, yet. And really, if Lee turns into just about any player on your list, the Indians will be ecstatic.
The analysis should really be looking at domestic players drafted (and a controlled subset of foreign-born undrafted players to avoid the Nomos and Dice-Ks of the world) to see whether height impacted whether they \'made it\'. If in the first four rounds of the draft 70% of pitchers over 6\'3\" make it, but that number drops to 40% for pitchers over 5\'11\", that would be telling data, particularly as the pitchers taken in similar rounds will carry similar expectations.
It would also be useful if we had reliable measurements, but you work with what you get.
I haven\'t really been following Manny since the trade, but how many games has he missed since landing in LA? I didn\'t have any problem with Manny when he was willing to take the field, but he seemed to be increasingly unwilling/sore this season.
He did play more games in August than he did in any other month this season. And his output has shown a significant uptick since moving from the bandbox to the ravine. If he continues his pace, he could have more HR and RBI for the Dodgers this season than the Sox. He has stolen 2 bases for the Dodgers?! He stole 7 during his Sox career. Guess the hammy, knee, groin, etc. are feeling better.
There is a reason I haven\'t been following him. Now I\'m all irritated again. Thanks.
Past articles on this topic have suggested the deadline could not be extended under any circumstance. I don\'t read the grievance as stating this. It sounds to me like Boras and the Pirates needed to call both the MLBPA and MLB for permission to extend the deadline a couple of hours to complete a signing that was near a deal at midnight.
Alternatively, Boras can be described as an agent of the MLBPA (I am assuming they license the agents), in which case Boras may have had some authorization from the MLBPA to work beyond the deadline with Hosmer, but Alvarez made the deal against Boras\'s wishes and thus without MLBPA authorization (implicit or otherwise) to work past the deadline.