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One thing I failed to mention. I used an average income tax rate. Using an actual income and applying the increasing rate I'm guessing would make things worse for anyone on a CA team. The 10% CA rate, plus the number of games played in State would really impact CA teams. Particularly NL West since 3 teams are in CA.
I worked on a similar study back in 2011 in order to determine what the total effective tax rate was by team. It factored in schedule and pro-rating games in the different states. The following includes local income tax rates where applicable. Again, this was in 2011 but could be updated.
Teams Effective Tax Rate
<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TB</span></a> 2.89%
<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SF" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SF'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SF</span></a> 5.67%
For Porcello I think the 2016 improvement is a continuation of the changes made in late 2015. Upto July 29th Porcello had an 18% strikeout rate (20 starts) and 5.81 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>. After coming off DL, from August 26th onward (8 starts) his K rate was 24% coupled with a 3.14 ERA. So I think the 23% mark in 2016 does represent a significant improvement.
I'd add that Porcello's 2015 season was not "utterly abysmal". Jekyll and Hyde but not all abysmal.
In his 1st eight starts and last eight starts, he had 3.67 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a>, 1.241 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a>, and 8.4K/9 over 108 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a> and 16 starts.
The 12 starts between May 22nd and July 29th he had a 7.11 ERA, 1.580 WHIP and 6.8K/9.
I am curious to see what Frazier's transition to AL will be like. I know his 3-year splits do concern me some.
Home: .274 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> / .845 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> with 51 HRs in 958 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>
Road: .236 AVG / .681 OPS with 32 HRs in 980 PA
Inter-league play: .198 AVG / .571 OPS with 7 HRs in 244 PA
Granted playing 81 games in Chicago's US Cellular Field will help mitigate moving away from Great American Ballpark.
Love that Margot description.
What exactly is your issue with PECOTA?
Is it possible there was a larger, league-wide trend towards fewer fastballs? Did other teams also see a drop in frequency of fastballs?
Both general question, although I am specifically referring to Betts, when does a player's on the field performance alter the upside projection for a player?
I would include Fernando Valenzuela's 1981 start.
5 complete games (45IP)
In the 1-0 win on April 22nd he drove in the only run.
Of course he continued the streak with 3 more complete games to begin May. Which included another shutout, a game with 1ER, and the last with 2ER. He also hit .360 in this 8 game streak.
An aspect of Bagwell's swing that always stood out to me was that his feet were wider at setup than at impact. He actually strode backwards.
These are great!
Thanks for the info.
Above link provides interesting tool. Looks like there were only 2 HRs hit at Yankee Stadium in 2013 that MAY have not gone out in Target Field. Again, wind patterns and temperatures are not factored here.
Can't some of the HR rates of Yankee Stadium v Target Field simply be explained by the fact that the Yankees had more HR hitters than Twins?
I agree that wind patterns, heights of walls, ambient temperatures all factor into totals. But I think the notion that Target Field is all that bigger just doesn't fly.
Off topic, I never realized how BIG Kaufman Stadium was. It has the largest OF in baseball. In fact the fences at Petco and Marlins Park are essentially where the warning track is at Kaufman.
The fences at Target Field are not that different than Yankee Stadium. Heck, a park overlay of the two looks like Target Field was modeled after Yankee Stadium.
Admittedly sample size is an issue. However over the past 2 years, Jimenez has a 6.61 ERA (+/- 15 starts) vs. NYY, BOS, TOR, TB and 3.91 ERA vs. everyone else.
These pieces are some of my all-time favorite articles. I look at Johnson and see Randy Johnson (as you've noted). I look at Hubbell and see Sale. Grove begets Glavine.
Love, love, love this stuff.
For the record Ellsbury only hit .246/.336/.318 vs. lefties. Better than Choo's, but I wouldn't claim Ellsbury's line to be indicative of a successful split.
How would you adjust your salaries for the following 5x5 league structure?
Hitting: AVG, OPS, HR, (RBI+Runs-HRs), SB
Pitching: Ks, ERA, WHIP, SPCOMB*, RPCOMB*
*SPCOMB = Starting pitcher wins + QS + CG + Shutouts + No hitters + Perfect Game
*RPCOMB = Relief wins + Saves + (Holds/2)
I loved watching Donny Baseball play growing up, even as a Red Sox fan. But frankly his last 6 years did nothing to help his HOF chances and another 5 years wouldn't have mattered. He was a bright shining star that simply faded too quickly.
1984-1989 (23-28): 4104 PA, 160HR, .327/.368/.530, 33.4 WAR
AVERAGE SEASON: 27 HRs, 114 RBI, 97 Runs, 5.7 WAR
1990-1995 (29-34): 3299 PA, 58HR, .286/.342/.405, 7.3 WAR
AVERAGE SEASON: 10 HRs, 64 RBI, 65 Runs, 1.2 WAR
Those last 6 seasons look a lot like I expect from James Loney.
All I want for Christmas is for the Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, and Nationals to finish with the same record. And Rays, Orioles, Rangers and Indians to finish tied as well.
Gabe, "you are good. You've got a gift..." for writing.
I love reading the comments and perspective from scouts and GMs. Keep it up. Only criticsm is that when I get to the end of the article I wish there was more. But that really has to do with my thirst for this stuff and not because of anything lacking in the article.
Albers has some work to go to catch Fernando Valenzuela's start.
9.0IP, 5 hits, 0 ER
9.0IP, 4 hits, 1 ER
9.0IP, 5 hits, 0 ER
9.0IP, 7 hits, 0 ER
9.0IP, 7 hits, 0 ER
9.0IP, 5 hits, 1 ER
9.0IP, 3 hits, 2 ER
That's 9 starts, 9 complete games, 5 shutouts. I had forgotten about how incredible and special that 1981 season was.
Due to the frequency that the Athletics seem to be able to do this, you would think pitchers would employ better strategies to keep runners honest.
Watching Vlad makes me wonder what was the farthest pitch (in, out, high and low) that someone managed to actually get a hit or HR. If I had to guess, Vlad is going to be high on that list.
Thanks for the presentation. Great stuff. Helps also explain why his cutter is more effective than most (fastball spin vs. slider).
You can't say "don't Google King Helix". That's like saying, whatever you do don't hit the red button. Now I can't get the image of that giant tongue out of my head.
Great article though. I've actually been toying with the idea of incorporating "Blow-up Starts" into our fantasy league. Our definition is simply a starting pitcher giving up more ERs than IP. I'd be curious to see how that changes your calculations.
Excellant work. I get annoyed every time that factoid is mentioned in a broadcast.
"There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics."
Brady, interesting. What I always wanted to know is how hitters make adjustments. For instance Middlebrooks started hot but cooled off. Why? What did pitchers and scouts see, what did they do?
I always wondered if some pitchers change their position on the rubber during a sequence, depending on which pitch they want to throw. Aka, sometimes David Cone actually dropped down side arm as a deception and to add a little more break to a pitch.
I have heard stories that in pre-game warmups while at Fenway Park, Rocky Colavito would throw balls from home plate into the center field bleachers. My arm hurts just thinking about throwing the ball that far.
Nevermind, corrected issue.
Grrr, can't access it. The pop-up doesn't recognize my login or password.
What incentive does MLB have to falsify PEDs?
The timing itself does make sense purely from a publicity standpoint. The paper wants to maximize the attention paid to this story. The best time to release it is AFTER the Super Bowl and before Spring Training starts.
Again, where is the conspiracy?
I agree with Hoot, that the first four paragraphs help illustrate that the the "Steroid Era" probably began long before the late 90s.
Ticket prices have little to do with the salaries being paid to players but are a function of supply and demand.
But context or perspective is important. In a finite market, you only can choose from what is available. The Red Sox needed a LF, RF, SS (Iglesious can't be the solution), 1B, SP, and RP.
You have to sign someone. They could go big and sign someone that would come with a big cost and equally large risk (Hamilton). When you consider that the Red Sox believe Bradley is their future CF, does going longterm and more money for Upton make sense?
Trades are always the other avenue to fill the positions. But those will come with equally high costs, but prospects and not dollars. Dollars are easy to come by, prospects are not. So trading for a player can come at a greater cost.
I actually laughed out loud reading the Phillies discussion. Great piece.
How mant MVPs followed up their award winning seaon with an even better season?
Braun's seasons really does pose the question, what impact do PEDs really have.
I believe criteria #3 pertains specifically within the context of the team, not off the field behavior. In other words, what is the player like off the field BUT in the clubhouse?
Wonderful article that shows how good scouting and a good statistical analysis can be blended to give us the whole picture.
This article bodes the question, what does Beckett do to improve his performance given the drop in velocity? The article seems to state that his 4-seam fastball is still his best pitch, despite his drop in velocity, and he needs to throw it more often. The problem is that he uses it heavily in the 1st inning, which happens to be his worst.
Again, great article.
I saw an Incaviglia game while he was with the Tigers against the Red Sox. He hit a HR off of Clemens that hit the actual lights. I just couldn't get over the elevation necessary to get the ball that high. Every time I go to Fenway I can't get help but think of that HR.
The discussions of pitching mechanics and the corresponding comparisons never seem to fascinate me. I actually watch games differently now. At live games (MLB, college and high school games) I will occassionally record pitchers from different angles to compare at a later date (for my own curiosity).
Ultimately, in my mind what I don't understand is that Braun offered to have a DNA test to verify that the sample was his. MLB denied to do that. My question is why?
Really, what else could have Braun done to prove his innocense. From day 1 he was astonished by the positive test. He hired attorney's and began the fight. And he offered to have a DNA test to prove that the positive sample was not his.
This is an example of a case where you are guilty till proven otherwise. And even then, you're not cleared. I have heard from multiple reports that he and his attorneys are barred from going into the complete details of his case.
Last point, if you're going to assume that Braun is guilty then I have several unanswered questions. What of the 25 tests that came back negative? Even if you assume he was previously was using something that wasn't detected, did he suddenly become stupid and use something new that could be detected?
I started collecting both fiction and non-fiction books about 10 years ago. I have 100+ and the Mathewson book is one of my favorites.
If you pinch hit for Martin with Montero, then you're left with a catcher whose defense is worse than Posada. It's not like Martin hadn't gotten you big hits during the year.
What cost the Yankees was what the Yankees did with the bases loaded. 4PA with one walk and one run. One base hit in any of those situations, and the Yankees are playing the Rangers.
I think Verlander should be MVP. He leads, not just the AL, but both leagues in GS, IP, Wins, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. The only pitcher to EVER do that was Koufax in 1965.
(Note: Kershaw's start last night had him pass Verlander in ERA.)
Great article. I've shared this with two high school coaches that have taken a good deal of interest in it.
This article definitely sent me back to my childhood. Many, many summer days were spent playing games of baseball with only three people (my brother and cousin). Batter, pitcher and one fielder usually positioned in the OF. The rules were...
1. Balls hit to RF were outs (unless we elected to hit left-handed).
2. Any batted ball that hit the ground before the outfield grass was an out if cleanly fielded. Caveat, if the ball got past the fielder, then the ball was a hit regardless if fielded cleanly.
3. Balls that rolled to the OF wall was a double.
4. Balls hitting the wall on the fly were triples.
5. NO WALKS! It was designed to be a hitter's game.
As we grew into our mid-teens we still played by the same rules except we used tennis balls instead of hard balls. Games were mostly frequently played on a college softball field. If we happened to play on a little league field, rule #2 was changed so that any batted ball field cleanly was an out.
Josh Beckett's WARP has got to be a typo. He's pitched far better than only a 1.6 WARP.
Don't we really know the context of the match-up. Was he thrown at earlier, did the pitcher do something to prompt the response, etc...
I agree that Harper needs to be humbled some, something that is bound to happen. But people need to cut him some slack.
I apologize I accidentally flagged this post.
Ramirez is actually in his own category. Those that have failed the PED test not once, not twice, but three times!!
Does anyone give PECOTA more of a headache than Ichiro? He always exceeds his 50% average.
I don't get why people think a salary cap is a solution. If a cap is put on player's salaries, all that really means is that the owners get a bigger piece of the pie.
Mismanagement is the biggest reason for teams failing to be competitive. That and just pocketing the money they receive in revenue sharing rather than spending it on the team or farm.
Gareth, in the states there are Federal, State, and City income tax rates. The rates vary from state to state, and city to city, and not all states or cities have income taxes. For instance there is no income taxes paid in all of Florida or Texas. However, in New York you have both a state income tax and a City of New York income tax.
The study in this article weighed the various tax rates against each team's schedule to determine what the final tax rate would be for a player on that particular team. (This is irrespective of the amount of salary.) So a player on the Texas Rangers would have an income tax rate of 2.549% whereas if he played on the New York Yankees he would have an income tax rate of 7.595%.
Great work Eric, I had fun on this project. I am curious to see what the real difference is if we look at contract offers when factoring the marginal rates.
For instance assuming Crawford had $20MM/yr offers from both the Red Sox and the Angels. At that salary level his marginal tax rate in California jumps from the 6.4% average to an actual 10.43% versus the 5.3% in Boston. (California has 10.55% top tax rate for incomes over $1.0MM).
Just for home games, Crawford's tax bill playing for the Angels would have been $513,000 more per year than for Boston!! This doesn't account for the schedule and the fact that the Angels play an additional 12 games in California (Athletics and Dodgers.
Papelbon's desire to set the market for relievers has certainly taken a hit now that, you would have to think, the Yankees are no longer a potential suitor.
That's a great idea. I'm going to give it a shot see if my results are the same as Eric.
As my grandfather always taught me, it's not what you make but what you keep. In addition to factoring in tax impacts on contract offers, cost of living is often over looked.
For example, I looked into this during Lebron's "decision", comparing Cleveland to New York. A $5MM home in the Cleveland suburbs would cost about 3-5x that amount in Westchester County NY for a similar home. Annual property taxes were about $500,000 more per year in Westchester than Cleveland. That's $5MM over a 10-year period. And that was only the property tax issue. Other costs of living ran about 30-50% more in NY than Cleveland.
After factoring in the Jock Tax, a $100MM contract in Cleveland was worth a $145MM contract in NY.
One suggestion is to have, and I don't remember if it was in previous years, but a Major League comparable for each player. Someone that scouts project a particular player's skill level projects him to be.
For example, Lars Anderson of the Red Sox projects to be a John Olerud type player, or a Richie Sexson type hitter, rather than just saying he projects to be a middle of the lineup hitter with moderate power and good on-base skills.
Morrow may have started to realize his true potential, but we need to see him pitch well against teams other than Tampa Bay.
3GS, 2-1, 22IP, 0HR, 1.23ERA, 0.773 WHIP
vs. rest of baseball
19GS, 7-5, 105IP, 10HR, 5.14ERA, 1.494 WHIP
Interesting. As untouchable (assuming no real long-term injury) as Strasburg is, a package of Jennings, Hellickson, Moore and Barnese is an awfully attractive package.
Pujols trade seems possible. Longoria is more a trade you'd hear from a disgruntled Angels fan with the Angels really giving up not much for maybe the most valuable hitter in baseball when you consider contract.
The Rangers trade makes sense for this year only. But starting next year, isn't Tanner the closer with Feliz back to the starting rotation?
Barry, I couldn't have said it better.
It's at the top of my Christmas list.
Don't the Nationals essentially have an August 2010 deadline to sign Strasburg since they will likely have the #1 pick next year and will pick him again?
Has anyone addressed that Manny\'s own teammates stated that they couldn\'t trust him on a day to day basis. That alone should be evidence that Manny\'s efforts were questionable regardless of outcome. Manny is in a long line of athletes that sign a contract and then complain about the contract when it no longer is viewed as \"market\".
If Manny continued to perform for the Sox the way he has the Sox would have picked up the options for $20M. He would have been paid $40M over the next two years, and probably would still get a 3yr-$45 to $50 at that end of that term. In the end he would have made essentially the same amount of money. But what Manny forgot or doesn\'t realize is that he now will KEEP less because Scott Boras is going to get a portion of all five years instead of the last two.