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"8. How quickly a team can go from afterthought to villain" criticizes the best fans in baseball meme as well as the mayor of St. Louis defending against the Cardinals being the "most hateable team in baseball".
I need a tinfoil hat because I find this tedious because I've read similar themes in other baseball writing?
Seriously, I don't see how your reading comprehension could possibly be so poor. You guys need some remedial English classes and dictionaries or something.
It became trendy to write bad stuff about the Cardinals during the 2013 postseason. The WSJ listing the Cardinals as the most Hateable team in the postseason is a good example.
I'm perfectly happy with valid criticism (TLR's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=LOOGY" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('LOOGY'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">LOOGY</span></a> fetish, for example), but the whining about Cardinals fans and Cardinals success is tedious and, frankly, the sort of clickbait <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BS</span></a> I expect from places like Buzzfeed, not BP.
The Cardinals win and make a lot of money playing in one of the smaller metro areas in MLB. That should be admired, but instead it has become trendy for sports journalists to bellyache about it and pick at every perceived fault. As a Cardinals fan, that has gone from amusing to tedious rapidly.
Congratulations! I've enjoyed many of your articles over the years.
I'm glad Cueto was in control and didn't end any further careers with kicks to the head.
Is it possible to look at changes in BMI to predict injuries? I'd guess that someone who put on (or possibly lost) a lot of weight would be more injury prone.
Of course, the self reporting problem probably kills any possibility of that working.
Jason LaRue being able to play again would be a feel good comeback story connected to Cueto.
Cueto playing again just reminds me to wonder why he wasn't given a lifetime ban for ending another player's career with a kick to the head.
I like how Carpenter isn't discussed. He's just listed in the tables, because it happened and there isn't much else to say about it. :)
He may be a good leader (or that may be good PR), but Jeter has always had a strong "me" streak. Recall his refusal to change position for an unarguably better shortstop.
Spin imparts movement due to the Magnus effect:
I can't believe that no one has asked the most important question: can we get a picture of the ice auger?
I love the Statistical Oddities, Curiosities, and Peculiarities. Thanks for a fun read.
Perhaps learning how capitalization works in civilized discourse would help you avoid down voting?
This would be far more interesting if it wasn't about a pitcher who ended another man's career with a kick to the head. Cueto's career should have ended that day.
The visual depth charts are nice. Is there a plan to do something similar with the production teams actually get during the season?
I'm a bit late to the party, but better late than never. Congratulations on the great job. I've enjoyed and been educated by your articles.
Thanks, Jay. That's exactly the sort of list I was hoping for. I remember seeing those over time, but it's been a while.
Is there a clear explanation somewhere of the changes over time for EQA/TAV, WARP, and FRAA?
I found this old player card for Ozzie linked from an earlier JAWS article:
In it, Ozzie was an average hitter (.260 EQA) with 229 FRAA. Now, he's a below average hitter (.250 TAV) with 173 FRAA. Those are some pretty big changes, and it isn't clear why they have occurred.
0.7692 Earned Runs for Mr. Wilson this season (see his player card). That's impressive (and impossible).
Why do player cards have no 2011 stats? I clicked through to Ichiro and Smoak, then tried a few more. No 2011 stats.
Why are lefties on average positive in expected runs per PA for swing decisions while righties are negative?
Next time, could I get a bit more baseball and a bit less political screed?
I've been to Dodger stadium many times wearing Cardinals gear, and have never felt unsafe. The only incident that ever happened involved peanuts thrown at me at a playoff game. The Dodger fan next to me (who I'd been joking around with for half the game) turned around and told the thrower to knock it off.
I just can't understand someone deciding to go past good natured teasing and into violence.
While I'll miss your daily writing, I recognize that when opportunity knocks, you should open the door. Best of luck, and I hope to keep reading your writing either here or elsewhere.
Is there an article somewhere that describes CHIPPER and the meaning of the red/yellow/green ratings that come out of it?
I'm not sure which is more embarrassing for the author and editor: that Chris Getz's numbers aren't in the article, or that I had to exit BP's website to find the numbers.
Kevin, you write that Belt has no real weakness against any pitch type, but also that he struggled against a steady diet of breaking balls. That seems contradictory.
The deflection from gravity is easily calculated based on the amount of time it takes a pitch to reach the plate. Subtracting it out is trivial.
Quite the sturm und drang on this one. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, even though I came to the same conclusion as Christina.
The groupthink of the media (sports and otherwise) can be interesting at times.
Eric, aren't you penalizing for HRs by subtracting them in "can I get some help?"? A HR results in a Run, so why subtract it from the total instead of just subtracting Runs?
The "alludes" link in the Cardinals section yields a page on MLB.com that says "Error: Bad Article URL". This isn't the first time I've seen that with MLB - their URLs seem to change often.
What's wrong with that is the idea that Wins are a meaningful statistic in evaluating pitchers.
What's wrong with it is that 30 years after Bill James popularized baseball analysis, the meaninglessness of Wins is considered a revelation by any BBWAA member.
The win may be the single most overrated statistic in baseball (the argument can also be made for the RBI and the Save). The fact that many writers in the BBWAA consider these statistics at all relevant in Hall of Fame discussions is one of the greatest indictments of the election process (and has been for decades).
This is one of the most disappointing articles I've ever read at BP, as it treats as revelations concepts that I've considered well established for multiple decades.
A bit of food for thought. Roughly half of an audience will disagree with any political statement. Using an offensive term makes those who disagree more likely to be bothered.
I'm in the same boat as a lot of people. I'd try to make an event in Anaheim, but something closer to, well, Los Angeles would be appreciated for a location.
Check the plots on the players. Albert Pujols projected TAv:
On the 10 year performance plot:
2010: < .350
2011: around .340
I noticed this error on every hitter I looked at.
Agreed. Commercial and free solutions for rendering equations have existed for more than a decade. LaTex and MS Word spring to mind.
Here's another fun question. How often did pitching doppelgangers end the night with identical ERAs?
Where's the beef?
Seriously, where's the table showing the delta in attendance and revenue for each team? According to your estimator, 20 teams have a decline in the overall take, and you don't show us which!
Another fun choice - lots of Germans got lost while wandering after the fall of the Roman Empire.
I've always been interested in the Greek/Scythian/Sarmatian melting pot north of the Black Sea during the Roman Republic years, though.
Very fun article, Kevin.
Can you get condensed games on the iPhone? That might well be the killer app for the platform.
Christina, you left out some of my favorite nomads. How about some love for the Sarmatians? ;)
A side note on the Dodgers' power outage. It's been an unusually cool spring in LA this year, which should result in less travel distance on batted balls.
This is one of my favorite articles this week. The combination of topic and execution is superb.
Overall, an enjoyable read. It begs for the obvious final table: the top 8 career LBM.
I agree, there are some definite weaknesses in terms of CE. It could have been weighted using various measures, but this is an interesting first pass. Kudos to Matt for trying something different.
I think this piece weakest because it is a historical perspective. Implementing a better version of CE and using it to report on the playoffs would be a great feature.
Thumbs up from me, despite the weaknesses. :)
Excellent idea, poor implementation. I'm glad I read it, but it desperately needed an editor and three more paragraphs of substance instead of debate about win shares.
Overall, I like this article.
One thing I'd love to see (and Will might hate to see) is some tables. In particular, the top N player-seasons, player-career, and team-seasons for stolen base attempt rate. Maybe that's available on Retrosheet somewhere, but I couldn't find it easily. :)
I really enjoyed this article. The phase 2 you describe here is exactly the things I'd like to see investigated. Big thumbs up from me on this one.
I like this article, though I'd like to see a bit more meat on the bone in a few places.
One nit I'll definitely pick is the use of the word "average" in the same sentence that the median is discussed. If you mean to refer to the mean, then it would be more meaningful to be specific.
Overall, I like this article. I thought that the first half was well written. I also feel that the topic is a good one for an intro article.
I felt that the writing was less clear (and less entertaining) in the second half of the article. I also felt that the numbers suffered from a common problem in sabermetrics - too many digits. I'd be astounded to find out that the run expectancy numbers had more than two significant digits. The table looks to be sourced directly from BP, but that sort of nit still needs to be picked.
I also like this article, but wish that it took another step or two along the analytical path. I'd like to see the relationship between first pitch strike and later strikes. I'd be even more interested in the relationship between first pitch strike and pitch velocity and movement (which might help demonstrate the relationship between first pitch strikes and "stuff").
I'm voting to keep him around, but I'm hoping to see a bit more out of an eventual winner.
I like Brittany's writing style, but this article grates on me. This article contains multiple errors which a basic grammar checker would have noted. I also note that this article demonstrates that the plural of anecdote is not data.
Overall, I'm left unimpressed despite liking her writing.
I'm definitely with Will on #2. One of the worst things about American Idol is the mocking and public humiliation of the candidates.
In general, I hope that they publish anything that they consider worth "sharing with the class". That's what it sounds like the plan is, so I'm happy with it.
Thanks Eric. This is exactly what I was looking to see.
I'm not clear what value this data has. Given that relatively few pitchers started on short rest, I expect that the data is skewed towards their pitch velocity and movement. It would be much more meaningful to see an average weighted difference from each pitcher's average velocity/movement on normal rest.
That plot looks wrong. Compare the player days lost with the A\'s THR, where the whole season is 5 or more players on the DL. The A\'s had 1k player days lost and Texas had 1.5k player days lost.
Looks like I\'m not the only Cardinals fan in the area.
I\'d like to see a book signing in the LA area. For some reason, the BP team never seems to wind up out here. I know several other people who buy the book annually. What would it take on our end to get LA on the city list for book tours?
rawagman\'s suggestion is something that I\'ve wanted for years. :)
Before that, I\'d like to see more stats make it into the customizable stats reports. E.g. WARP (in any of its forms) and defensive stats are currently not available.
I went to a small private high school which didn\'t have any baseball. We played softball instead, partly because the athletic field gave us a very short right field. There was a steep 30 foot slope down to a subdivision (I could have probably hit a house if hitting a baseball instead of a softball). Since we had no walls or fences on the field (it doubled as a soccer field), the only way you could get a home run was to loft the ball over the edge of the hill.
Since I bat righty, I got quite good at hitting to the opposite field.
I\'ll add to the accolades here. I\'m a life time Cardinals fan and I\'ve been wondering how much to expect from Ludwick going forward. I learned a lot about Ludwick that I didn\'t know.