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wonkothesane1
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/18803
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104096">Luis Urias</a></span> a "just missed"? Or is he more of a fringe top 100 guy?

Jul 06, 2017 11:38 AM on Midseason Top 50
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

I find it useful to be guided by both. When discrepancies come up in bid values, then that's where as an owner I can make my own decisions. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> is usually breakout averse, so if I see Mike <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=G" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('G'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">G</span></a> has a higher bid I'll do some research to see if I too believe that player isn't a candidate for regression. If <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> has the higher bid, I'll try to figure out if I want to bullish as well or if I'm just not that big of a fan of a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66557">Tommy Joseph</a></span> or Devin Travis. However, when it comes to the star players <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> definitely doesn't fit my league's market. It's more of a relative ranking at that point and I can pick what I want to spend and who I want to target.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

I checked both here and the weighted means spreadsheet and I'm surprised that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105417">Dinelson Lamet</a></span> didn't get a projection. He seems more likely to contribute this year than guys like Quantrill, Lauer, Nix and Allen.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105477">Logan Allen</a></span> is left handed, as the video shows.

May 24, 2016 9:56 AM on May 24, 2016
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102435">Dustin Peterson</a></span> was traded to the Braves on the Upton deal. There's a possibility that PTBNL <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70917">Trea Turner</a></span> could be at Lake Elsinore. Maybe that's who you mean.

Mar 23, 2015 7:53 AM on California League
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

Is Zeke Lemond a known alternate spelling for Zech Lemond? Or was that typo?

Mar 18, 2015 12:11 PM on Midwest League
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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That's fine. Even if that works, there's still no flexibility. The payroll will be maxed out, just with less of a drop off in talent. The flexibility is a myth.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

I don't know that I would refer to next season as having plenty of payroll flexibility. All the commitments they have made, plus the arbitration raises and Benoit's option equals a payroll in 2016 that is on par with what they are paying in 2015. Which would be fine except that includes losing Upton, Kennedy, Venable and Shawn Kelley. They seem more handcuffed than flexible unless the owners up the payroll.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

Is Chaucer analytically proven to be the worst spring reading though?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Eovaldi is on both the target and avoid lists.

Feb 27, 2015 1:24 PM on Starting Pitchers
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Upton is a free agent after 2015, not after 2016.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

Interesting that Shields is referred to as a 4 win-ish type player, when WARP shows him as never achiever 4 WARP in a season once in his entire career. 3.4 is his high. 2.9 in 2014. 1.6 projected for 2015. Seems like their is a discrepancy between his stats here and how he is talked about.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Kind of funny to start with Phils. They seem like one of the few teams that might (emphasis on might) be trying to restock the farm this offseason. List subject to change, I guess.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

Probably the last one. Couldn't hurt.

Oct 14, 2014 10:36 AM on The Other Playoff Myths
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

So, the summary here is that the question “What did Alex Gordon do in 2014?” will not be answered by StatCast. But will it be answered better than it is with the current dataset?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -4

When the player gets to the majors he's going to have to deal with the fact that he has enough money to get him in trouble. Those years of being broke and staying out of trouble will not have turned over any lessons. Better for the youngster to learn how to manage money like at least a lower middle class person than a below-the-poverty-line person.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Anybody have an example of a current (or I guess former major leaguer) that you would call a 50 RF? Wouldn't mind also a 60 example. I don't want a comp for Renfroe, just an idea of the expectation level for him.

Jul 03, 2014 9:38 AM on July 3, 2014
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

It's not a matter of paying a little more, it's a matter of acquiring too many. You want to get enough to do well in the category, but without SGP the PFM will try to help you own the category at the expense of others.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

Gonna be hard to see Rodney Daal in Lake Elsinore. He had Tommy John surgery in November.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

Heh, my dynasty team has 5 of these guys. None all that great. Kendrick, Callaspo, Lindsay, Brett and Forsythe. I also have Sogard, but I guess he's either listed at another position or isn't even in the dregs. Cory Spangenberg is obviously outside the top 50.

Jan 30, 2014 1:39 PM on Top 50 Second Basemen
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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My guess is that some managers' strategy will be similar to some tennis players. Roger Federer, for example, doesn't (or at least didn't at the beginning) like the idea of challenging the official for a review. It was rare that he would actually use his challenges. He would still use them from time to time when he knew he had to, but wouldn't burn them as much as other players do.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Wouldn't that just make the challenge worth 0.18 runs? That still seems like a low threshold.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

One sort of caveat with comparing the Brewers and the Angels comes with Prince Fielder. The Angels probably could have extracted more value with that type of player because they would have had the money to re-sign him. On the other hand, the Brewers could have kept Fielder had they not kept Braun (who doesn't get counted as part of their value due to joining the system later). Not sure how you account for that. However, it is interesting to consider if the Brewers had traded Braun to free up money and kept Fielder at a premium price they would have fared better in that analysis, but not necessarily better in the real world. I tried to think of a similar scenario involving the Angels, but I can't think of a clear case where they let a player go in order because of budget constraints.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 3

Fuentes, Quackenbush and/or Andriese perhaps some of the next names considered factors on the farm after the 3 mentioned? Any chance Fuentes can stick as a starter (platoon starter) or his upside limited to 4th or 5th OF? Are Quackenbush's struggles in AAA a sign of inability for his stuff to play at higher levels or just an adjustment period? Andriese anything more than org arm? 5th starter potential? Any bullpen possibility.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

Can you be a 7, All Star Player, with an extreme defensive profile. To the point where the player might never make an All Star game because the offensive statistics will be quite average for the position. Or does the bat (and baserunning) have to play along at that point?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

That is assuming that his arrival in the major leagues is delayed a year. That is not known. Perhaps he is more advanced now and can move faster through the minors.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Does the fact that much of Lohse's money in this deal is deferred and his actual 2013 salary being quite small ($4M) factor in to any of this analysis?

Mar 27, 2013 9:39 AM on The Lessons of Lohse
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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That sounds correct about Putnam. I honestly can't recall if I was there or not. I've probably read about it a few times since his dad is my GP and there are articles about Danny on the walls of the rooms. I was still in Junior High when Jaime Jones was playing.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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To give another idea about how much the Home Run records have changed. I don't know who the current record holder for career Home Runs is, but Rancho Bernardo's John Drennen became the San Diego and California record holder in 2005 with 47. A lot more than Graham Koonce's 31.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I know that the "HRs, season" record has been beat a few times. Most memorable for me was Danny Putnam, who also went to Rancho Bernardo High School before playing the OF at Stanford with Carlos Quentin and becoming a supplemental 1st round pick by the Athletics. I remember it getting beat again the next year. Although, I can't recall the name. He was a big first baseman.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

I think Hamels missed that season with a broken arm. I know he missed one season that way. I went to Rancho Bernardo High and didn't even know who he was until he burst onto the scene following the injury. Saw him pitch a few times in high school. Unhittable.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 3

That seems unfair. The part of the system that has been the deepest was the lower minors. The veterans are stop gaps until these prospects arrive. The team has not been stocked with guys at AAA beating down the door. They almost had that with pitching last year (Wieland, Kelly, Erlin, Bass), but injuries kept those guys from spending a lot of time in the majors. Not the veterans. For the position players, 3 of the players in the 25 and under category were major league starters by the end of the season. Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera were the middle infield. There's nobody in the minors that was going to supplant Carlos Quentin or Chase Headley. And Rymer Liriano wasn't ready to be the RF. I don't see a major philosophy problem there.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

Blake Tekotte was traded to the White Sox on November 7.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I was just talking to somebody who works in the nursery business, but didn't follow the Padres all that much. Luke Yoder was a well known name to her from her line of work.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Still looks like Liriano's power is a little low for the California League. Any concern there or are we waiting for it to develop with age?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I spoke with Josh Byrnes back before Spring Training and he said they already saw Wieland as the more advanced of the two (him and Erlin). So, it may not have just been Wieland's spring that put him ahead.

Apr 12, 2012 1:18 PM on Joe Wieland
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Francisco Cordero didn't even crack the 1 star closers?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -8

You got to be careful when you use this newfound definition of the word "scuffles". For Mike Foltynewicz you could interpret that, using the traditional definition, that he got into fights.

Nov 01, 2011 11:05 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Yeah, I have Blanks penciled in as the starting LF in 2012. He looks much better defensively out there than he did in 2009 otherwise I would have thought it'd be more up in the air.

Sep 19, 2011 10:50 AM on San Diego Padres
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Haha. Michael Cuddyer shows up if I filter by relief pitchers.

Aug 24, 2011 1:29 PM on BP's Compensation Pages
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

They were trying to keep his innings down. At least that's how the Padres beat write Corey Brock (@FollowThePadres) reported it.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Isn't Rowand hitting lefties well? If you're going to credit Burrell's .807 OPS against RHP, then you can probably give credit to Rowand for that .829 OPS vs LHP.

Jul 19, 2011 11:44 PM on To Serve the Young
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

This article reminds me of a number of good things Towers did in San Diego, but I'm still left wondering what he's done to help this years DBacks. Wily Mo is a nice story, but the DBacks were contending before he got to the big leagues. The one thing that does seem to favor Towers is the Mark Reynolds trade. He got a couple bullpen arms back, including his 8th inning guy, which was big. He thought that Mora could replace Reynolds, but it turned out that he had Ryan Roberts to do that already. I wonder if that was just luck or if he knew Roberts was a solid plan B (or C or whatever). It's also worth mentioning that their situation at 1B is mostly a disaster.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I have to point out that Griffey, ARod and CC never produced titles with their original teams. Perhaps if they didn't cost as much during certain parts of their careers the team could have spent that extra money to produce a ring or two. RE: SABR types. I don't think Kevin mentioned whether the NL exec was a SABR type, so I don't quite follow how he (the person that inspired this line of thinking) gets lumped in with that group.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

There's also the ticket sales factor of extra success. If I follow the premise that in 2014 all these stars will be up and running at the major league level, then if Hosmer is cost controlled you have $7.5 extra to spend. Maybe that's money spent on a veteran who does enough to push the team to a division title. Or even gets them a World Series appearance. Bottom line is the more money spent on the core players of the team during this period of predicted boom times is less money spent on supplementing that core. And without the supplements it will cost the team wins and potentially all the fans and merch sales that winning titles bring in.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -5

"defending world champion"? Who decided to leave that in? The only world champion baseball team I know of is the 2009 Japan team.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

Still nice to see the Padres prospect streak remains alive.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

I can't tell you how much I love reading these and seeing Padres prospects in it every time. I will say the word I'm hearing on Rizzo is that the team does not want to call him up while they are struggling, stick him high in the batting order and put pressure on him to fix things. The problem with that logic is that next year it'll be even worse as the team's main power threat (Ludwick) will be gone and it's unlikely that they'll have anyone more qualified than Rizzo to bat 3rd, 4th or 5th in the order. At some point they just need to hope the kid is mentally prepared to the "The Man".

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Neither do I. But that's just stats. I was looking for something with a scouting perspective.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I'll take it compared to what Hawpe and Cantu are doing.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Do you think that Rizzo's hot streak is a sign that he doesn't need much AAA seasoning or that it is what is, just a hot streak from a talented player.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Um. Don't draft Greg Zaun. (retired)

Mar 07, 2011 8:06 PM on Catcher Rankings
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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"he's reached the age where that top comp to Hank Blalock long since stopped being a compliment" Fortunately Headley appears to be a better defender than my fellow Rancho Bernardo High alum. That and some better health should carry some extra value that Hank didn't. I'm very curious as to what the Padres internal discussions are regarding Headley as he gets older, more expensive and closer to free agency.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

Didn't the 2001 Diamondbacks do something similar WRT borrowing money? I don't think they increased the payroll though.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

Last year the Padres players combined for something like 40 WAR. Without making any bold predictions about players having breakouts or career years and providing some regression. I can get them to about 38.5 WAR (before the Hawpe signing). I'm not going to predict they will have 90 wins again, but to write them off this early would be foolish. FWIW, I'm assuming that the injured Blanks gets 0 WAR in that.

Dec 30, 2010 12:08 PM on NL West Roundup
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -6

The tagline that showed up on my RSS feed for this article said, "Catching up with the quartet racing to catch the world champs." Probably should have said, "Catching up with the quartet racing to catch the World Series Champions."

Dec 30, 2010 10:57 AM on NL West Roundup
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

I wonder if the change in pitch selection was related to Jason Kendall. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts in Milwaukee.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

Just a thought. You might want to consider import the spreadsheet to google docs. That would make it a little more portable for the user base. If not, then I guess I'll just wait until its complete and do it for myself.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

F-Lop turned down going to a possibly playoff-bound San Diego in 2010 to instead sign with Boston who was farther back in the standings. I get the feeling he's not one that wants any part of the Padres organization.

Nov 12, 2010 10:37 AM on San Diego Padres
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

According to FanGraph's Garland's WAR for 2010 was only 0.8. That's a lot of replacement level innings. Seems like there are cheaper ways to get replacement level performance than signing Garland.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 2

Padres have already stated that the payrol will "begin with a 4" in 2011. They also have to pay the signing bonuses of 2 first round picks.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

Somebody has a busy offseason planned.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 0

Quotes from Jed Hoyer on Tony Gwynn Jr. suggest that Hoyer has a lot of respect for what Jr. can do with the glove. I'd be a little surprised to see him non-tendered unless they find another CF candidate.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 4

I've also suffered the last two years. Some of which is bad luck and some I have a theory on. My opponents are more equipped. The more internet-based projection systems out there the more fantasy players will use them to build their rosters. Its not the edge it once was and it probably has little to do with the accuracy of the systems. Using a projection system has become the baseline from which players develop their draft lists. You need to go above and beyond to get better.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

I've heard them best described as "accounting tools". And just like in accounting its very good thing to show that you made money on your balance sheet, but its not necessarily an indication that you'll make money on a future balance sheet.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: 1

The Padres bullpen is known as the PENitentiary, for those that are interested in such things. They even each have shirts with a logo designed by Mike Adams' tattoo artist.

Sep 09, 2010 12:13 PM on Friar Men
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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The "Various Fill-ins" for Correia and LeBlanc have been Tim Stauffer and Cory Luebke and they've put up a combined 3.00 ERA in their 3 starts. However, they are averaging only 5 IP per start.

Sep 09, 2010 11:18 AM on NL: Trouble at the Top
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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It wasn't overlooked or illegal, it just didn't seem to be in the spirit of the rule. No wrongdoing by any party whatsoever.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I agree. Not that it matters because typically Selig will only intervene to help owners make more money and/or keep owners happy. Owner happiness/greediness is not really at issue here so there's zero chance he steps in and does anything.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Hmm, the last time I was at Coors was 2007 before they went on their run. And I think there was more Broncos gear than Rockies gear at those games.

Aug 25, 2010 3:21 PM on A Trip to Target Field
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Re: Merchandised fanbase. I just visited this park last Sunday with my brother. We felt that it was second to only St. Louis in this category. Or, at least in jerseys/faux-jersey-shirts.

Aug 25, 2010 2:36 PM on A Trip to Target Field
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Scott Munter is not on San Diego's 40 man roster and the Padres are going to have enough trouble trying to make room there. They have Chris Young coming off the DL, a promotion for Cory Luebke coming and perhaps someone who can play some CF (like Jody Gerut). They also have Mike Baxter and Wily Mo Pena knocking on the door and no room at the inn. I wouldn't hold my breath on major league innings for Munter in September.

Aug 24, 2010 10:17 AM on Chapman's Time is Now
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I'm curious about Lake Elsinore's Cole Figueroa. He consistently gets hits in the Cal League, but not too many XBH. He's never had a mention here (partially I assume because Cumberland was overshadowing him) so I'll just ask some q's and see what happens: Cal League mirage? Actual Prospect? Can a 2B get to the majors with that little power? Is his defense any good?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

I disagree with the assessment that Padres should add a bat. They got to first place with pitching and defense and some of that pitching was a little lucky. Their strand rate is unsustainable and you are starting to see struggles from guys like Clayton Richard, Luke Gregerson and Kevin Correia. On top of that Mat Latos is going to have his innings limited. It makes more sense to add arms and preserve what they have rather than chase down 1 extra WAR that would come with adding an .800 OPS bat (whatever that means anyway since OPS could be an on base guy or a slugging guy, which provide two different amounts of value).

Jul 15, 2010 10:40 AM on NL West
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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The Padres' CEO Jeff Moorad also has a policy of no bonuses and I believe that goes for All Star bonuses as well. Obviously, he inherited contracts when he became CEO last year, so some probably have the bonuses. But, I would assume the Eckstein, Garland and Torrealba deals do not include All Star bonuses. Not that its terribly important, but the word "lone" was used to describe the Yankees policy.

Jul 05, 2010 9:26 PM on An All-Star Payday
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I was thinking Randy Ready would be on this list. In San Diego he's talked about as a future MLB manager and I believe he was interviewed the last time the Seattle job opened up.

Jun 29, 2010 12:20 AM on Manager Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Were all international signees affected by this rule change or only ones that signed after a certain date? I'm curious about a few guys in the my team's system that signed a year or more before Ynoa got his contract with the A's.

Jun 28, 2010 2:22 PM on International Timeline
 
wonkothesane1
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It seems to me that even with Castro's dominance he still has a ways to go. He gets taken out before the 6th inning all the time. It seems to me he's going to need some time before he's ready for a big league workload.

Jun 28, 2010 12:00 PM on Monday Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Blanks has elbow tendinitis and will rest it for the time being. It's possible that he could be back doing a rehab assignment within 2 weeks. It's currently inflamed and very uncomfortable, which is why he feels worse than when it was originally injured.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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WRT (1), doesn't SIERA take into account the league ERA for the year? I'm pretty sure FIP does.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Jablonski (Rico) Noel was drafted in the 5th round by the San Diego Padres, not the Colorado Rockies.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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First name that comes to mind as best non-Strasburg pitching prospect would be Simon Castro. But, I do admit, I'm a Padres fan.

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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The one saving grace for Blanks this year is probably that Hairston has issues against RHP and Thin Gwynn and Venable have issues against lefties. Recently, Oscar Salazar has been used against lefties more and more, but he's not exactly lighting it up either. So there are openings for Buddy Black to trot Blanks out there to work on his swing. The AAA replacements aren't exactly beating down the door. Chris Denorfia is no prospect, is not on the 40 man and has shown that he doesn't hit for power in the big leagues. Aaron Cunningham's AAA struggles this year rival Blanks' major league ones. The left handed hitting Mike Baxter wouldn't be a great platoon partner for Thin Gwynn or Venable, plus he's not on the 40 man roster either. The best option might be Luis Durango, but the team has been trying to get his defense major league ready in the minors and may not want to disrupt that process.

 
wonkothesane1
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Just from knowing the Padres 2009 and 2010 schedule I know that some of those numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. At this date in 2009 the Padres had played home games that included two weekend series' and weekday series against the Dodgers, which is one of the more highly attended matchups, that included opening day and night. There was also a 2 game weekday series with a division rival. So far in 2010 the Padres have played a 9 game homestand that included only one weekend series and two weekday series' that did not include the Dodgers. Just knowing that I would have guessed that the 2010 numbers would be lower than the 2009 ones.

 
wonkothesane1
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What should I make of Mike Baxter of the Portland Beavers? In the low minors he put of okay numbers and got promoted despite playing corner positions and not having the numbers to back it up. However, last year in San Antonio he seemed to take a step forward at least numbers-wise and was promoted to Portland where he put up okay numbers again. This year he's raking to start the year. I'm obviously not thinking he's ever going to be a solid regular in the majors and at 25 years old he probably won't get that shot either, but is anything more than an organizational on an extended hot streak or could he be a bench guy in the big leagues?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Nick Greenwood got some good results last year for Eugene and Fort Wayne. Is a step below the guys you mentioned for Low A?

 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I'm cool with that. At least I have a flash point so to speak now. If (big if, little if, whatever) the A's rotation begins to falter I can abandon the idea that they are a favorite or even a contender.

Apr 02, 2010 10:26 PM on AL Pre-season Edition
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Interesting that the A's come out as the best in the west. Most analysts see them as an also-ran to the other 3 competitors. Obviously, some of that is due to the Angels incumbency as division dominator, the sexiness of the Mariners offseason and the Rangers winning record last year. But, you look at the A's and you don't really see a contender. Maybe their upside isn't that of their rivals, but their downside isn't as low so it averages to a higher HLF?

Apr 02, 2010 10:04 AM on AL Pre-season Edition
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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I'm pretty sure I've heard you meant the pain-spasm thing before. Maybe it was in a football article, but I'd be surprised if I heard it from someone else.

Mar 22, 2010 12:52 PM on Breaking Down Breakdowns
 
wonkothesane1
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How come this is so iPhone-centric? How much of this applies to the Droid version?

Mar 11, 2010 11:32 AM on At Bat 2010
 
wonkothesane1
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I think there is something else that may affect the manager's decision in the intentional walk scenario. A lot of the members of the media aren't going to know that the "hot hand" theory is bunk. They are going to crucify any manager who lets the guy with the hot hand beat him. Most managers will not want to appear foolish even if they weren't being foolish.

Mar 08, 2010 11:53 AM on Going Streaking
 
wonkothesane1
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Well, Darnell might not be moving to 2B, but they are going to try Forsythe there. http://nctimes.com/sports/baseball/professional/mlb/padres/article_ccda1e98-790e-5042-9197-842aa11cc641.html

Mar 02, 2010 3:12 PM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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KT did have some talent for this in the past, but I wouldn't be surprised if DePodesta had his fingerprints on some of the more recent ones. It's pretty well accepted that he's the one who pushed to get Heath Bell. It wouldn't surprise me if Adams or Mujica were his guys as well. I'd lean towards Gregorson being a KT guy though. You also have to add in that Darren Balsley is absolutely fantastic at helping guys iron out some of their issues and making sure they are used appropriately.

Mar 02, 2010 2:58 PM on Best Non-Closers
 
wonkothesane1
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Mujica seemed to have solid year for the Padres when he worked out of the pen. I would assume that his numbers as a starter later in the year complicate things.

Mar 02, 2010 2:55 PM on Best Non-Closers
 
wonkothesane1
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While not a slap hitter like many speedy guys, I can't imagine Cabrera getting enough loft on his cuts to hit more than a 15 HRs in a peak year (assuming he found his way out of Petco Park by then). A Rafael Furcal comp makes way more sense.

Feb 25, 2010 3:14 PM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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Wouldn't that bat play at positions other than middle infielder though?

Feb 25, 2010 11:04 AM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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That, plus the other prospects on this list are pretty good.

Feb 25, 2010 11:03 AM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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Word out of Peoria, is that Latos is in a competition for the 5th starter spot (assuming the no injuries the front 4 are Young, Correia, Richard and Garland). That's a competition that features two guys (Gallagher and Stauffer) who are out of options along with two other guys who have more experience than Latos (LeBlanc and Ramos). The general feeling is that Latos will be in Portland to start the year, that could be why he's not getting much fantasy attention. I think the Padres want to limit his service time on a non-competitive team while also limiting his innings due to his durability/injury issues.

Feb 25, 2010 11:02 AM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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I'm looking forward to getting mlb.tv this year. I bought a laptop with an HDMI connection and I just have it plugged into my TV. It has a wireless keyboard and mouse so I get the lean back experience. In fact, I'm leaning back right now and typing this.

Feb 21, 2010 12:43 PM on Non-traditional viewing
 
wonkothesane1
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The one thing that it's probably off on is the Dodgers record and that's because it doesn't take into account moves that could be made midseason and LA seems to be the team in the West that is the best at making those types of moves.

Feb 18, 2010 5:33 PM on NL West
 
wonkothesane1
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Aren't Chris Young's (SD pitcher version) PECOTA projections always a little off? Because PECOTA doesn't account for his high number of infield flies it pumps up his ERA projection. That's not to say he won't "disappoint", it's just that I wouldn't treat his PECOTA ERA projection as a reason why.

Feb 18, 2010 5:31 PM on NL West
 
wonkothesane1
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HGH is not a steroid.

 
wonkothesane1
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I have a hard time believing that there was any possible way that McGwire could have gotten a prescription for steroids, even given his health issues. The only "easy" way to get these prescriptions would seem to be from doctors with dubious ethics.

Jan 18, 2010 11:36 AM on Enhanced?
 
wonkothesane1
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I guess, but the way it is used it could be interpreted than the kid was getting into fights in AAA. That's probably not the best way to try to communicate the message.

 
wonkothesane1
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It was pointed at to me recently that the definition of scuffling is: 1. To fight or struggle confusedly at close quarters. 2. To shuffle. So, I'm not sure that "The top prospect in the system was scuffling a bit as a starter at Triple-A, but dominated out of the bullpen in a stunning big-league debut." makes sense using those definitions. Anyone care to correct me?

Jan 11, 2010 11:47 AM on Rangers Top 11 Prospects
 
wonkothesane1
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I like this approach to analyzing the vote. This should be a yearly article accompanying the HOF vote. Not that I approve of the process or 1st vs 2nd vs ... 10th ballot HOFers, but if it's happening, we should understand it. Good work.

 
wonkothesane1
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I think he was just skeptical of a guy with less than 300 ABs with no power and a very promising rookie in AAA behind him. I don't recall anybody else considering him a viable fantasy option last March.

 
wonkothesane1
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According to Cot's Contracts, any contract signed before the effective date of that CBA could still demand a trade. Obviously, most contracts were signed after that date (including Lowe), but some like, say, Carlos Beltran could still use this clause. Although, he's a 5 and 10 at this point, so it seems kind of unlikely that he'd agree to a trade and then demand a trade the next offseason. I'm not sure which side of the CBA Alphonso Soriano, J.D. Drew and Barry Zito fall under. The only player that was signed definitely before the 2007 CBA and is not a 5 and 10 that I can find is Kevin Millwood, but he'd be a free agent next offseason anyway.

 
wonkothesane1
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You re-sign a 10 and 5 guy. If the Padres re-signed Giles, he would still have 10 and 5 rights. Same with the Orioles and Melvin Mora. The Mariners with Beltre. The Angels and Vlad. The White Sox and Dye. If the Yankees sign Damon to a multiyear deal, he'll be 10 and 5 after the end of the 2010 season. Randy Winn would get it with the Giants part way through 2010.

 
wonkothesane1
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Alomar never played in Brown and Yellow. Even your own link shows that he played in Brown and Orange.

 
wonkothesane1
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Doesn't LaRoche always finish strong? Seems like that's his MO, start slow, finish strong. I wouldn't put too much faith in his finish when considering his breakout potential in 2010.

 
wonkothesane1
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It has to be collectively bargained. Since it hasn't been anything that either side really cared about, it hasn't been changed. There's no player evaluation agenda going on here where anyone is preaching or detracting advanced metrics. It's simply not a high profile enough issue to come up at the bargaining table.

Dec 02, 2009 12:53 PM on The Risks of Arbitration
 
wonkothesane1
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I definitely think the Eric Byrnes comp is thrown out a little too much. He was an exception, not the rule. So, whenever I see the comp I figure that prospect has some long odds of having a successful big league career, but someone squinted and thought the guy had some outside chance of having at least one big year and couple decent ones in the majors. It also may be code for high effort as well.

Nov 11, 2009 10:37 AM on November 11
 
wonkothesane1
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"I agree with starting him in the minors, but I'm not exactly sure what I'd need him to work on." That quote sounds really dumb from a pure baseball perspective. It makes it sound like the scout wants him in the minors for no good reason. On the other hand, there are some non-baseball reasons to keep him in the minors. There is a certain culture that comes with being a professional baseball player and it would probably help to ease him into that. Get him some time getting used to the travel and being away from family before the pressures are on. It'd probably be good to give him a chance to buddy up with some guys who will be on the major league club soon so that he doesn't feel like a loner in the clubhouse with all the media attention.

Oct 28, 2009 10:48 AM on October 28
 
wonkothesane1
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The Rays pitching trash is another team's prospect.

Oct 21, 2009 11:32 AM on October 21
 
wonkothesane1
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easily, easy easy to think one, type another.

Oct 20, 2009 11:37 AM on October 20
 
wonkothesane1
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It's just a typo. Royals, Orioles, easily to think one, type the other.

Oct 20, 2009 11:36 AM on October 20
 
wonkothesane1
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People going to Florida to retire? Sounds about right.

Oct 02, 2009 12:06 PM on Closing Up on '09
 
wonkothesane1
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This is completely a guess that comes from watching Heath Bell pitch a lot. I think he may "jump" as he throws and gets a little closer to home plate that way.

Sep 22, 2009 12:47 PM on Perceived Velocity
 
wonkothesane1
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Nobody from the Fort Wayne Tin Caps. I guess you already touched on Simon Castro a couple of times. Has Vince Belnome ever made it here?

Sep 22, 2009 12:30 PM on Playoff Stars Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
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Weren't the Braves basically doing this? I don't remember them ever saying that either Soriano or Gonzalez was the closer.

Sep 18, 2009 10:55 AM on Closing Out Closing
 
wonkothesane1
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Referring the Eddie Guardado's performance when talking about Brandon McCarthy's performance makes me think that you might need to visit the glossary and see what Support Neutral Winning Percentage means.

Sep 14, 2009 2:44 PM on AL West Moves
 
wonkothesane1
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I think the next step in the Pirates rebuilding (in addition to drafting and developing players) is to build up the value of the guys they got in return (Young, Cedeno, Clement, LaRoche) who aren't as young as their wave of their high ceiling prospects (McCutcheon, Alvarez, Sanchez, Tabata). The high ceiling prospects will be come your core (similar to the Weeks/Hardy/Fielder/Hart/Braun core in Milwaukee) and the rest you keep churning until you can find another player that can be part of that core. It's also worth mentioning that while the Pirates are cash poor, they will have some money in the next couple of years (money that had been spent on Wilson and Sanchez) that they could use to supplement the core if they happen to peak and start competing for a division/wild card.

Sep 08, 2009 12:06 PM on Pirates Adrift
 
wonkothesane1
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I think the interesting thing here is the Rays definition of replacement level for starting pitching isn't the same as most teams' replacement level. With Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Andy Sonnanstine you aren't exactly exactly stick in John "6.00 ERA" Doe like you would be in a strat league. Then you add in the monetary concerns for a team that needs Carl Crawford next year more than it needs Kazmir and indefensible doesn't really apply. I'm not going to say that it was good move, but certainly defensible.

 
wonkothesane1
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It seems they are overcoming his poor defense in CF, probably due to the ground ball pitchers mentioned. They didn't get the best performance from Taveras out there last year (although it was still better than the poor numbers Dexter is putting up), so it's probably not a big enough difference to mention here.

 
wonkothesane1
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Garrett Mock was also drafted by Rizzo (while with the Backs) and was mentioned in this article. Scott Hairston was also drafted by Rizzo and traded to the Padres after Rizzo left. He also drafted Dan Uggla, but in that case was still with the DBacks when the Marlins picked him up the Rule 5 draft. But all that gives you more of a feel for how much talent Rizzo brought the DBacks, which doesn't seem to be coming in anymore.

 
wonkothesane1
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He meant young talent that Rizzo didn't bring in has dried up. Anderson, Cunningham, Carter, Gonzalez and Smith were all brought in before Rizzo left for Washington. He also oversaw the drafting of Drew, Upton, Tracy and Webb. And back in the day signed Frank Thomas to his first professional contract. I'm pretty sure he was also still director of scouting when Gerardo Parra was signed. And his last draft included Max Scherzer as the number 1 pick. It's hard to find any good DBacks (or DBacks prospects beyond Parker) that do not have Rizzo's fingerprints on them. I think that was the point.

 
wonkothesane1
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Chris Young has a contract that runs through 2013 and an option year for 2014. I believe that would take him through his arbitration years (unless this is a real extended -- and expensive -- stay in the minors). So, I'm not sure that there is any cost control going on there. I guess, if he's not FA eligible yet after 2013 (which I think would require him to stay over a year in the minors) and they decline the 2014 option, he would become arbitration eligible again. I'm not sure how that works.

Aug 18, 2009 12:01 PM on August 18
 
wonkothesane1
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Pete Macheska's example with football and the Randy Moss stat coming on the screen is ridiculous. While baseball and football both have fantasy followings, football is far more accessible and every play matters more. You want to keep your fans informed of totals. Otherwise, you risk them going to check their computers for fantasy totals and missing commercials (or even the in-game commercials). In baseball, this isn't necessary because fantasy numbers are obvious (it's a lot easier to tell that my guy hit a grand slam or recorded a strikeout than it is to tell if my fantasy WR just got his 100 yard bonus or my DE got a half sack or full sack), so he can get away with it.

 
wonkothesane1
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Moving the draft to start on the "dark" Wednesday after the All Star game seems like a win for everyone. Draftees wouldn't technically be holding out as long and MLB would no longer have to worry about the draft conflicting with teams' actual games (In the current 3 day format it would still finish before the weekend and the 2nd 2 days would be during games, but they don't get the same sort of media attention). It's always been a struggle for Selig to balance building the sport's popularity through marketing the draft while not taking eyeballs and butts away from games that count. It's surprising to me that no one suggested this sooner since it solves a major problem with the draft.

 
wonkothesane1
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On Cust: I think there are just a number of people that WANT to call him a Quad-A guy. He's still makes for a decent platoon player because his numbers against righties are still quite good. He's also 30 years old and has only been in the league consistently for 3 years. Most players around that age will see a dip after career years in their late 20s. Also, his first half numbers weren't terrible either. Isn't a couple of months of playing time in the second half a little too early to be saying that he can't adjust? Now, would I sign the guy to a long term deal? No. But, I wouldn't label him replacement level and kick him to the curb either. Even a .352 OBP/.438 SLG against righties is not Quad-A, it's definitely major league caliber, just maybe not what you want in a full time starter.

Aug 12, 2009 4:58 PM on Midweek Update
 
wonkothesane1
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NHL figured them out too.

 
wonkothesane1
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Isn't there a rules advantage with home field? Walk Offs? 8 1/2 inning game strategy? Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me the rules are somewhat designed to give the home team a slight advantage, but the article doesn't address it.

 
wonkothesane1
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It's still mildly amusing to me that if the Blue Jays played in the NL West, they'd be perennial playoff contenders and have won a handful of division titles this decade (including 2008). The criticisms over certain contracts would be mostly moot. They probably wouldn't make as many desperation moves (a la Frank Thomas). And they probably wouldn't even need as high of a payroll to be contenders. And if they simply just weren't in the AL east, most of that would also be true minus the handful of division titles.

Aug 11, 2009 1:37 PM on Blame it on Rios?
 
wonkothesane1
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You could make a similar case for Burrell. He was initially moved to 1B because Gold Glover Scott Rolen was at 3B. He then moved to LF after the Curt Schilling trade to make room for Travis Lee at 1B. I'm not sure either story has much bearing, since that section of the article is just pointing out top hitters who changed positions. There's a possible implication that these players were moved for issues similar to Braun's, but including defensive studs like David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Mark Teixeira leads me to believe that he's not trying to say that these guys moved because they are indifferent to defense. He's just pointing out that they did indeed move.

 
wonkothesane1
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Without digging too hard into the A's roster machinations, I'm going to assume that Marshall got called up over Kilby because he's on the 40 man roster already and Kilby is not. Kilby would require the A's to lose a player to waivers if they did want to bring him up. If he's pitching so well, then the best hope is to keep pitching well enough to make the 40 or 25 man rosters out of spring training next year. Or, maybe somebody goes on the 60-day DL or gets traded for low level minor leaguers opening up a roster spot.

Aug 10, 2009 1:01 AM on Assorted AL Additions
 
wonkothesane1
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The mlb players is covered by the union, so probably not.

Aug 06, 2009 10:51 AM on Getting Dealt
 
wonkothesane1
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The kid doesn't have a lot of fantasy value currently. Not exactly the best time to be writing about him in a fantasy oriented column, is it?

Jul 28, 2009 11:49 AM on Rookie Pitchers
 
wonkothesane1
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I think the "Player development" and the comment about "being famous" were only related in that they applied to High School draftees. The "Player development" was not elaborated on at all. I take it to mean that there is more of a focus on working with these kids to develop on the field as well as emotionally maturing them in the minors, both of which are more common now than it used to be. You don't have players just being sent to minor league teams with only their manager and some young coaches to help them. You have roving instructors and an entire player development department to help them along.

Jul 27, 2009 4:13 PM on Beaneball
 
wonkothesane1
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WRT Alex Gonzalez and Cot's Contracts, I do not believe this is correct. If it was a player vs. club option like you mention, then it probably would have listed similarly to Jason Varitek where it says: 10:$5M club option or $3M player option. I have to believe (assuming that Cot's isn't missing something crucial here) that the Alex Gonzalez mutual option will require the consent of the club and the player to vest. The buyout may apply to either declining, but possibly could only apply if the team declines and Alex Gonzalez does not. Unfortunately, this logic would also mean that Christina misspoke in her earlier comment (Sorry, Christina).

Jul 27, 2009 3:30 PM on Senior Shuffling
 
wonkothesane1
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Wouldn't "Jacoby Ellsbury" just be scout code for polished, line-drive-hitting, speedy, 6 footish, skinny guy who can play a good CF? Gillies probably fits those, except maybe the polished and the good CF (I'm not saying that he doesn't fit those, just that I don't recall what his scouting reports say).

Jul 24, 2009 11:32 AM on July 24
 
wonkothesane1
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Somebody needs to go to the edge of a blackout area and jump back and forth with the game on. And of course be yelling, "Black Out! Black In! Black Out! Black In! Black Out! Black In!"

Jul 22, 2009 9:49 AM on Toeing the Line
 
wonkothesane1
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The column is called "Minor League Update" so Latos doesn't really fit the scope now. I saw him pitch live yesterday. Lots of fastballs, all with very good velocity (the lowest I saw was 92 with the highest at 98, but Geoff Young posted an unfiltered with all the velocities for the game). He's confident and goes after guys almost to a fault because when he faced Helton he got a full count and kept trying to get a fastball by him, but the former batting champ just kept fouling him off until he got a walk (Geoff mentioned this as well). That took up a lot of his pitch count limit, which was very low (I was thinking it might be 80, but he was taken out before getting even close to that). He did something similar later in the game, battling through a full count before giving up an RBI double. Basically, he needs a little more confidence in his offspeed stuff so that batters can't just hack at the fastball when they are defending the strike zone.

Jul 20, 2009 12:45 PM on July 20
 
wonkothesane1
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I assume the results vary quite a bit from player to player. I was just discussing something regarding Cesar Carrillo. If he's just struggling with command and control as a result of Tommy John surgery (which he had quite a while ago now) and could eventually figure it out or if he's just not as good of a pitcher in the post-surgery part of his career.

Jul 20, 2009 12:39 PM on July 20
 
wonkothesane1
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Mitch Canham has started to hit for some power for San Antonio. Maybe if he hits another HR or a couple of doubles today he can sneak onto the minor league update. From just following his boxscores this year, his power was the main thing missing from his offensive game. If that starts to come along, he feels like he could be a real prospect as a future Padres catcher (as opposed to the mirage that Nick Hundley seems to be).

Jul 16, 2009 10:46 AM on July 16
 
wonkothesane1
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Pie in the sky. Pipe dream. Blow out the candles and make a wish.

Jul 09, 2009 2:32 PM on Contextual Platooning
 
wonkothesane1
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Mets. They could use Wells as a fill-in for a bit and then trade him while eating his salary. Then they get Halladay, don't have to deal with the roster crunch and maybe get a C/C+ prospect or two back.

 
wonkothesane1
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If arguing against Zobrist's inclusion is a waste of words, then the whole article is a waste of words. Every year Joe Sheehan writes about what the ideal All Star team should be like and it's pretty obvious that ideal team does not include Zobrist. It would be a dereliction of duty not to "waste" words on it.

Jul 06, 2009 2:24 PM on The All-Star Selections
 
wonkothesane1
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You can probably add semi-catcher Montero to that list. I assume Castro the Astro is also a nice prospect at this point. I'm not claiming I know where he ranks, just that those guys might be in the discussion. Jeff Clement might fit in there somewhere too.

Jul 06, 2009 1:31 PM on Monday Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
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To be more exact, Adrian Gonzalez hit a triple, waited a couple of pitches and then called for the trainer.

Jul 02, 2009 4:57 PM on Tweaks and Updates
 
wonkothesane1
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Blanks is no Frank Howard out there in left. He can run down balls a heck of a lot better than Headley can and while the routes he takes look a lot like the ones Klesko took in the same park, he still runs down those flies better than him too. While Petco may be cavernous and oddly shaped in CF and RF, the LF position jut requires some ability to run down balls in the gap (since the CF has to shade toward the deep right-center gap) and watch out for walls. I think Blanks can do that at least as well as anybody who has manned the position to date, with the exception of Dave Roberts. So while not perfect, he isn't a step down either.

Jul 02, 2009 11:00 AM on NL West Roundup
 
wonkothesane1
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Owners are greedy. They don't want to pay as much as they did the year before. So the Commissioner makes up some dollar figures that will make them happier. There is no written rule governing these things, it's simply an industry recommendation.

Jun 24, 2009 11:12 AM on Signing Season Preview
 
wonkothesane1
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I'm not trying to take any sides, but the idea that ARod should be treated like every other player when he gets paid a lot more than every other player isn't that strange an idea. For the amount of money he gets paid, I think there are a lot of people that would want him to be 100% focused on his baseball career at all times. Right or wrong, the expectation doesn't seem that strange to me.

Jun 23, 2009 11:44 AM on Progress Reports
 
wonkothesane1
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I'm glad Zawadzki got a mention here. Going 6-6 is fantastic! He's definitely peaked the interest of this SS starved Padres fan when he was in Lake Elsinore, but seemed a little old for the Cal League. I loved the move of seeing what he could do in the Texas League and it's nice to see that he can hold his own there. It seems like there's now a reasonable chance he could shoot for a big league debut before turning 26 (May 2011).

Jun 22, 2009 11:43 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
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Isn't it a bit unfair to compare Strasburg to other pitchers that went #1? Strasburg is not a clone of those guys and there is no logical reason that is career path should mirror any of them. The #1 pick doesn't stamp a player with a mold they have to follow, it just means that the team picking number 1 thought that player was the best pick for them. The best that can be done with Strasburg is to evaluate him based on what he's done on the mound and trust the scouts that are paid to project players like him to do their job. Anything beyond -- like comparing him to other #1s or other high draft pick pitchers like Prior or Beckett -- is just headline grabbing.

Jun 22, 2009 11:03 AM on NL Draft Wrap
 
wonkothesane1
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Sogard When wondering Saturday if the Padres would consider bringing Eckstein back for 2010 someone asked me who they have in the system. I said that, obviously, they have Antonelli, but he's still struggling in Portland. So it brought up the interesting question of what happens next year. Sogard will obviously be deserving of promotion so you have to do something with Antonelli. Will they trade Antonelli in a Gautreau-Smith or Burroughs/Brazelton sort of trade? Will they send him to AA? Will they promote Sogard directly to San Diego? I doubt they'll let both of them repeat their current level. It'll be interesting to see what they do.

Jun 15, 2009 1:59 PM on June 15
 
wonkothesane1
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You should have referred to Southern Mississippi's Davis as "Bo" Davis, which I guess he goes by. Then you wouldn't have ended up with the inadvertent link to the 1995 Padres draft pick.

Jun 12, 2009 4:24 PM on The Final Eight
 
wonkothesane1
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That's incorrect information about Stauffer. Stauffer didn't tell the Padres until after they drafted him, but before he signed. You may be thinking of last year's draft pick, Allen Dykstra, where the Padres knew of Dykstra's hip problems and drafted him anyway. Then, they got further medical information after the draft and got concerned. I'll also add on the Minor front that as a Padre fan I too am not in favor of Minor. I see him as worse than Carillo in Schmidt because the pick is so high. With both Carillo and Schmidt the Padres picked those players with later picks where they expected both those players to be gone already and simply chose the top player on their board. So, even though they picked the supposedly safe/low ceiling college guys they weren't cases of settling for signability, but rather just picking the best player available. Minor is not that, but the other options are pretty meager too. I think I'll be happy with almost any pick so long as it's not Minor.

Jun 08, 2009 2:10 PM on Draft Class '09 Top 50
 
wonkothesane1
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Is it possible that the Padres were looking at Sanchez as the 52nd overall pick? If he is climbing up the boards, maybe they didn't know that other teams already saw him as a 1st rounder. As for the UNC games, I'm pretty sure the Padres have been to their share of TarHeel games this year. It's not like White and Ackley were a secret going into the season.

Jun 04, 2009 10:51 AM on Draft Rumor Mill
 
wonkothesane1
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You already have the answer to your confusion. Batting yourself in is too reliable. OBI can be used to identity players who are likely or unlikely to keep getting extra RBI that pad the ones that they create for themselves. If you have 42 RBI and 21 HR, then it's already well known that 50% of your RBI total is completely reliant on your HR total, so as long as your HR skill set doesn't decrease you have the skill to maintain that part of your RBI total going forward. So then the question becomes, how reliable is the other 50% of your RBI total? And the OBI stat (and the other numbers mentioned here) are the attempt to answer that.

Jun 02, 2009 1:52 PM on Get Your OBI On
 
wonkothesane1
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Ibanez, Teixeira... Did they miss Hamilton and Suzuki while they were hurt?

May 13, 2009 2:00 PM on Riding the Horses
 
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I remember the same sort of doubters when Lebron was coming out. But, if you saw the way he passed the ball and made other players better all while being a good shooter and athlete in his own right, you knew those people were full of it.

 
wonkothesane1
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No one boos Ryan Franklin? I do, every time I see him pitch. I've booed Mike Morse and Jorge Piedra. I'm pretty sure I've booed Alex Sanchez and I'm darn sure I've booed Juan Rincon. I'm not even that upset about their usage. If it wasn't against the rules I wouldn't even care. But, if there is going to be outrage over the issue and such contempt held for the Clemens' and Bonds' and Palmeiro's over the world, then these guys deserve to hear it too. So I give it to them.

May 08, 2009 4:28 PM on Manny's Return
 
wonkothesane1
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Verlander said that they fixed his arm slot. He said he was throwing much higher last year and he moved the arm slot back down to what he called his "natural" arm slot.

Apr 28, 2009 1:43 PM on Close Calls and Closers
 
wonkothesane1
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Hawpe is a LH batter and the right side of his body was toward the catcher when the throw came in. So the ear flap was on the impacted side. What it looked like was almost a hit to the neck as it hit him with an upward angle underneath the edge of the helmet behind the ear flap. I'm guessing that it hit the bottom of the skull there and rattled things enough to cause a concussion. It was certainly an odd impact location to suffer a concussion from. I was worried that it hit his neck and had damaged an artery/vein or something.

Apr 28, 2009 1:41 PM on Close Calls and Closers
 
wonkothesane1
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Ask and ye shall receive.

Apr 20, 2009 2:02 PM on The End of the World
 
wonkothesane1
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How about that if Kevin doesn't mention your favorite prospect, then you can write up your own little blurb in the comments section? That way your guy gets his "love" and we don't end up with a bunch of comments with negative ratings.

Apr 20, 2009 1:58 PM on Monday Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
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I'm a pretty close follower of the Padres, but you've got me beat if you can tell me what Elmer Dessens has to do with the Padres. The last I heard, Dessens was with the Mets organization.

Apr 16, 2009 3:00 PM on NL Roster Roundup
 
wonkothesane1
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I was hopeful for the Gerut/Eckstein platoon would be in place, but Black put Hairston in the leadoff spot against Kershaw after using Eckstein 2 days earlier against Wolf. I do have a thought as to why Black did this (not that I agree with it) and it had to do with Kouzmanoff resting and not wanting to put Headley in the cleanup spot. Hopefully, if/when Kouz gets healthy they can go back to using Hairston's good slugging to drive in runners later in the lineup instead of using his bad OBP to hurt the top of the order. Or, they could just put a better OBP guy up there like Edgar Gonzalez (who filled in for Kouz).

 
wonkothesane1
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I've got some love for Padres sleeper prospect Anthony Bass. 6 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 H, 4 Ks. I'm not sure how good the Lansing Lugnuts are, as they don't seem to have any top hitting prospect, and I know the MWL is a pitcher's league, but it was still a nice night for 21 year old right hander.

Apr 10, 2009 12:41 PM on Friday's Monday Ten Pack
 
wonkothesane1
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Somebody should make a note to follow this up after we see Cliff Lee's 2009 results. Maybe not an article, but an Unfiltered that points to this article and summarizes the 2009 results.

Apr 09, 2009 3:10 PM on Cliff and the Gang
 
wonkothesane1
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I guess most of feeling comes from seeing last year's team and I don't see how this one could be any worse. They don't have Jim Edmonds who accumulated -7 VORP in a month while playing an awful CF. They should get about replacement level production from C, 2B and SS which is a HUGE improvement from last year (it was easily over -20 VORP from the 3 positions in 2008). And pre-Headley, the LF offensive production was bad too. The pitching was no great shakes last year either, so it's hard to believe that this team could be worse than that one. And that team's record lagged behind its adjusted record. I'll stick with PECOTA on this one and say they have a shot at 4th place in the NL West and will be closer to 85 loses than 100.

Apr 03, 2009 1:33 AM on The Bottom Ten
 
wonkothesane1
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What is it about the Padres that makes you disagree with PECOTA's projection of 61 more runs scored and 39 more runs prevented? PECOTA already takes into account the bad situation at C/SS/2B and the OF defense isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be (by UZR it's not even the worst in the division since the Dodgers are way worse and Brad Hawpe is worse than all the Padres OFs combined). I just think PECOTA isn't exactly giving the Padres any gifts, and yet you are downgrading them from that projection. I don't get it.

Apr 02, 2009 5:34 PM on The Bottom Ten
 
wonkothesane1
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It's funny that they use Neyer since I'm pretty sure he's said that he uses PECOTA and then makes a few tweaks as he sees fit.

Apr 02, 2009 11:34 AM on NL Projected Standings
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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PFM?

Apr 02, 2009 11:33 AM on NL Projected Standings
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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Ah, the second loogy. Not quite as satisfying as that first loogy that took care of most of what you needed, but it's something you thought you needed to do and just ended up feeling painful about it because there wasn't enough stuff for the loogy to take care of so you're left with this scratchy pain in your throat. Wait, was I supposed to be talking about left handed relievers? Well, the description seems to work for both.

 
wonkothesane1
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Interesting flexibility. You should be able to move Salty to C and ditch Kotteras at some point. Teahen should gain MI qualification and then Cedeno can hit the highway. The tough part will be in getting some players that will give you production in those spots, but UT and OF should be "easier" to get somebody who can produce better than Kotteras and Cedeno. Unfortunately you don't have a RES who has a sure path to step into one of those spots. Although LaPorta could be big if things break your way, Raburn not so much, but I can't think of much better upside off the top of my head. Gordon Beckham? Nah.

Mar 28, 2009 4:43 PM on The Last Week
 
wonkothesane1
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Comment rating: 3

It sucks that anyone would think this about America. I'm not saying that they are right or wrong about thinking it. I just think it sucks that we are thought of that way.

Mar 25, 2009 4:33 PM on Reality Checks
 
wonkothesane1
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Comment rating: 1

here's a reference to it: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/weblogs/padres/2009/mar/17/walking-and-stretching-peoria/?padres

Mar 23, 2009 12:54 PM on Spring Hurts
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
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All San Diego Padres players are required to do Yoga. It didn't seem to help the catchers much last year.

Mar 23, 2009 12:52 PM on Spring Hurts
 
wonkothesane1
(18803)
Comment rating: -1

Isn't Crede a defensive upgrade on Harris/Buscher? If he is, then technically he doesn't have to quite get to his 75th percentile PECOTA forecast to represent an overall upgrade of the position.

 
wonkothesane1
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MLB Network does have an ex-GM and I'm surprised he wasn't part of the discussion. I might be misinterpreting some of his comments, but John Hart seems to be a guy that understands the evaluation of players by quantitative and qualitative means. I'm pretty sure he could have brought a little more substance to the conversation while also eliciting respect from the ex-MLBers in the room.

Mar 16, 2009 4:54 PM on Panorama
 
wonkothesane1
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I'm thinking that a place like Columbia could probably put together a decent team (Orlando Cabrera, Renteria, Fruto). I've been surprised that they haven't been invited, but maybe the MLB has something against that country. Nicaragua is probably an okay candidate. Greece has fielded an Olympic team before. There is a World Cup for baseball. The have 5 groups of 4 teams each (in the 2009 edition) with Czech Rep., Spain, Sweden, and Nicaragua being the extra four. I wonder how teams qualify for that.

Mar 11, 2009 12:02 PM on Logistics
 
wonkothesane1
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Pecota burned many a fantasy player on Alex Gordon. Or at the very least, disappointed them because their late round sleep didn\'t pay off.

Mar 03, 2009 11:37 AM on Matt Wieters
 
wonkothesane1
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Comment rating: 2

Assuming that you are talking about only true 1st round picks, then a quick browse through B-R finds (back to 1990): 1990.24 Rondell White Montreal Expos (Mark Langston) 1991.16 Shawn Green Blue Jays (Bud Black) 1992.19 Shannon Stewart Blue Jays (Tom Candiotti) 1993.15 Chris Carpenter Blue Jays (Tim Henke) 1993.20 Torii Hunter Twins (John Smiley) 1998.17 Brad Lidge Houston Astros (Daryl Kile) 2001.26 Jeremy Bonderman Oakland Athletics (Kevin Appier) 2002.16 Nick Swisher Oakland Athletics (Johnny Damon) 2002.24 Joe Blanton Oakland Athletics (Jason Giambi) 2003.19 Conor Jackson Arizona Diamondbacks (Greg Colbrunn) Up-and-comers who are notable: 2004.22 Glenn Perkins Minnesota Twins (Eddie Guardado) 2004.23 Phillip Hughes New York Yankees (Andy Pettitte) 2004.28 Blake Dewitt Los Angeles Dodgers (Paul Quantrill) 2005.23 Jacoby Ellsbury Boston Red Sox (Orlando Cabrera) If you go to the supplemental round you find a some more successes (and a lot more failures, go sample size!). David Wright, Adam Jones, Joba Chamberlain, Kelly Johnson, Dustin McGowan, Brian Roberts, Aaron Rowand, Mark Prior (when the Yankees drafted him), Johnny Damon, Bobby Jones, Scott Hatteberg,

Feb 23, 2009 3:45 PM on First-Round Picks!
 
wonkothesane1
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While this is true, this only works in a few scenarios (the Dodgers meet these): 1. The team is already a contending team and the added player gives them a better chance at either playoffs or a championship. This trumps rules 2 & 3 as long as the assessment of the team as a contender is correct. 2. You don\'t do this year after year with the resulting effect that you never get any first round talent into your farm system. 3. You don\'t get multiples of these players in a single year and sacrifice your first 2-3 rounds of picks.

Feb 23, 2009 3:15 PM on First-Round Picks!
 
wonkothesane1
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It\'s hard to take a bunch of guys under 25 (with Encarnacion as the exception) and label them as \"ordinary.\" I don\'t think we\'ve seen any of these players\' true levels so projected them to break out makes as much sense as projecting them to stay the same.

 
wonkothesane1
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I don\'t get the point here. In the Cruz case, the Diamondbacks would still get some sort of compensation as part of the trade. The Diamondbacks are under no obligation to trade Cruz for anything less than what they value that 1st or 2nd round pick to be worth. The Diamondbacks would also be better off doing this than if Cruz waited until after the June draft to sign and the DBacks get nothing. I\'m also not sure what the Diamondbacks are doing about trying to sign Cruz. If they are not even trying to sign the guy, then I argue that the rule is broken (unintended consequence) since it is intended to keep the player on his former team. If they are trying to sign him, then they should refuse to agree to the trade concept and keep working toward a team friendly deal and nothing changes from before. And lastly, most of this isn\'t against the rules. As I understand it the player is given the right to sign and then not be traded until June 15. It would then also be their choice to waive that right. I think part of why the union is getting involved is because normally the union is against players waiving any rights they have worked hard to earn. The only part that would be bending (if not breaking) the rules is the part (which is not mentioned in the article) that the team would HAVE to trade him during a window or he becomes a \"free\" agent again. That part should probably not be allowed.

Feb 17, 2009 1:31 PM on Changing the Game?
 
wonkothesane1
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The Dodgers also have Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton as options. Whatever that is worth.

 
wonkothesane1
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Why is Eckstein listed as a SS? Seems like the position change to 2B would be important for a Team Health Report. I\'m guessing that it is being completely ignored because you list Edgar Gonzalez as the alternative to Antonelli, but Matt has a ticket to AAA this year as, according to Kevin Towers, Sandy Alderson and Bud Black, Eckstein is the starting 2B.

Feb 12, 2009 10:53 AM on San Diego Padres
 
wonkothesane1
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It\'s interesting that you mention Venable splitting PAs with Gerut since it was Hairston you did most of the platooning last year. Hairston/Gerut (Hairut?) is a more traditional platoon with Hairston the righty and Gerut the left. I think it\'s much more likely that this arrangement will continue since the team wants Hairston to get some starts and Headley in LF is a switch hitter. Venable will probably get called up when/if Giles is traded. But, in either case, you still have Gerut losing some at bats and for those of us who play in leagues where you have no bench players, he loses some of the value that Pecota projects.

Feb 05, 2009 11:41 AM on Hitting Sleepers
 
wonkothesane1
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I know this would require a bit of creativity, but couldn\'t a Manny-less Dodgers also move Blake to the OF, DeWitt to 3B and have Loretta play 2B? That would probably represent a better option than Juan Pierre, everyday player. Of course you\'re still trading in Manny\'s bat for Loretta\'s, but on the possible bright side Blake may be a better defender than Manny.

Jan 26, 2009 4:19 PM on NL West Moves
 
wonkothesane1
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99.9% maybe a little harsh. I suspect there may be others like me who faced with the idea that our team doesn\'t have a good chance at a championship (I\'m a Padres fan), the prospect that my WBC rooting interest (USA) has a chance to win something if they get good enough players makes me want my guys to play in it. Of course, there\'s only one Padre who is good enough to play (Peavy, although if Gonzalez wasn\'t playing for Mexico he wouldn\'t be a bad choice at 1B after the top players declined).

Jan 15, 2009 3:06 PM on Bad Timing
 
wonkothesane1
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I second this.

Dec 31, 2008 2:47 PM on July 23-30
 
wonkothesane1
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If they trade for him instead of drafting him, they don\'t have to keep him on the 25 man roster the whole season.

Dec 11, 2008 12:37 PM on July 16-21, 2001
 
wonkothesane1
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I\'m not sure how much people care about this sort of thing, but this means Utley can\'t be the US 2B for the WBC. Hopefully Pedroia or Roberts will be available (I\'m assuming Kinsler would skip it).

Nov 20, 2008 12:33 PM on 5,715
 
wonkothesane1
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What\'s the deal with Trevor Harden? I saw John Sickels put him at the same level with Parra, Valdez and Miley, but he doesn\'t get an honorable mention here. Care to discuss what you hear about him and make a guess why some would like him more than you do?

 
wonkothesane1
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I\'m not sure what the \"Re-uniting Manny Ramirez with his first major league manager, Charlie Manuel\" remark was supposed to mean, but Manuel didn\'t mange Manny until 2000 which was Manny\'s 8th (and final) year with the Indians. Manny\'s first major league manager was Mike Hargrove in 1993.

Nov 12, 2008 1:02 PM on NL East