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So would it be safe to say, that the old thinking of Hitting being consistent, and Pitching being variable, is becoming outdated?
Assuming my math is correct, Hitters are showing 73% ROI, and Pitchers are showing 83%? That's a pretty significant difference. 83% would be just about the safest bet you can make in an auction, i think even the middle tier hitters don't hit that consistently...
Great article Mike, is it possible to see Table 6 for pitchers?
Where would you put Yoan Lopez on this list? Apparently he's competing for a spot in the Arizona rotation this spring... Inquiring minds want to know (ie. people who already committed a pick in the dynasty draft :)
I usually drop 1 or 2 teams from my auction PFM, and let that shrink the value of the bottom players. (Essentially the same game the mixed values is playing).
It shrinks the player pool, but as mike showed, trying to value and predict players #140-160 is basically useless anyway. Realistically, #130 - #200 are all essentially worthless anyway. There's no way to predict which 20 of the last 80 players will be taken, so don't try. Cut them out of the auction entirely. It will flex money evenly throughout the rest of the auction.
Not Really, his ERA was 1.73 before he tore his UCL.
Not to quibble, but if you remove the start where Fernandez actually Tore his UCL, he's numbers are significantly lower.
Sorry for the TL:DR post, but I just couldn't help but laugh when I see 3 of the names I have claimed in my DEEP 600 player drafted keeper/dynasty league. They have helped raise me from a sluggish start into the top 3!
Hopefully they aren't total flukes, and keep producing!
With only 1 waiver claim per week, I always use it. Churning your roster is ALWAYS my advice these days, I feel like the usual "stick to your pre-draft numbers for months" isn't the greatest advice anymore.
So are Pearce, Martinez, McHugh total flukes? should I trade them? will I get any value for them, or should I just keep riding them?
p.s. LOVE Transaction Analysis and Painting the Black btw! keep up the excellent work, and we all understand why you didn't cover these guys, don't take it too hard! :)
Gillaspie, Conor 3B | CHW - Claimed off Waivers 7/14/2014
Flowers, Tyler C | CHW - Dropped
Shoemaker, Matt SP | LAA - Claimed off Waivers 7/7/2014
Garcia, Jaime SP | STL - Dropped
Ramirez, Neil SP | CHC - Claimed off Waivers 6/30/2014
Ethier, Andre RF | LAD - Dropped
Pearce, Steve DH | BAL - Claimed off Waivers 6/23/2014
Swisher, Nick 1B | CLE - Dropped
Britton, Zach SP | BAL - Claimed off Waivers 6/2/2014
Lindstrom, Matt RP | CHW - Dropped
Martinez, J.D. LF | DET - Claimed off Waivers 5/26/2014
McLouth, Nate LF | WAS - Dropped
Weeks, Rickie 2B | MIL - Claimed off Waivers 5/19/2014
Strop, Pedro RP | CHC - Dropped
Francisco, Juan 1B | TOR - Claimed off Waivers 5/12/2014
Pacheco, Jordan 1B | ARI - Dropped
McHugh, Collin SP | HOU - Claimed off Waivers 5/5/2014
Johnson, Erik SP | CHW - Dropped
Vargas, Jason SP | KC - Claimed off Waivers 4/21/2014
Nova, Ivan SP | NYY - Dropped
Flowers, Tyler C | CHW - Claimed off Waivers 4/14/2014
Stubbs, Drew RF | COL - Dropped
Blackmon, Charlie RF | COL - Claimed off Waivers 4/14/2014
Baker, Scott SP | TEX - Dropped
Hutchison, Drew SP | TOR - Claimed off Waivers 4/7/2014
Weeks, Jemile 2B | BAL - Dropped
(Flowers was really the only guy whose "hot start" was a total mirage, but I lost W. Ramos to injury so I gambled!)
I am very happy you will still be podcasting!
I have always felt that Sam was this huge tsunami of enthusiasm constantly breaking upon your soothing, dulcet tones.
Yin and Yan and all that jazz!
love ya, good luck out there!
You wanted to say "adorable" didn't you?
Scratch that, it was Wisler promoted last week. Not Heaney
Heaney is in AAA
I'm exaggerating, without doubt, and I can choose not to follow people, So I'm not crying bloody murder here...
That being said, here's my twitter feed, from the last 3 hours, unedited. (granted, I only follow like 12 people, but still.)
I'd rather article sponsoring (like this), than seeing draftstreet every-other-tweet. Its gotten to the point that it's not worth following your individual authors anymore, since they just retweet eachothers Draftstreet promos.
Amazing work Ben! gratz
and keep up the amazing podcast work, you should take home a podcast award as well!
Not even close to a slider.
It's much more like a curveball, that goes 2 oclock to - 8 oclock. As opposed to a 12-6.
Well, springer is now Tied with Myers for HR, and beating him in SB...
Most Proj systems and people give him in the range of
AVG: .250 - .270.
HR: 15 - 25
SB: 20 - 30 (seems high, but he walks a lot, so steals..)
R/RBI: 55 - 80
The lower end of the spectrum is around ADP 120. The upper end would be a top 30 overall player.
I split the middle. He could collapse, but so could every player. Go look at the top 20 batters drafted last year... There's risk in Every good player.
literally IN love with you Sam, but I can only see Renteria's shining smile, other pictures appear broken.. probably just me
IMO, slightly less than Upton or Pence. More than fowler or Jennings, probably around Marte/Brown tier.
ADP around 60-70
80 WARP is a lot of value for players that could have been acquired on the cheap. I miss Nate
Some guy named Springer was recalled, after press I assume
So... right around Morrow / Santiago?
I think Taijuan Walker might be a two start. If so, where do you rank him?
I was referring to: "Can't steal from me if you can't outbid me."
Of course they can, you only get to name one player at a time, if someone else names your next best value before you name another player, he's stolen from you, and worse, for a great value!
To specifically address your question:
"extra money comes from to have $2 per player in the endgame"
The money comes from the section of the auction, that has the worst expected ROI (the top). And moves it to the highest expected ROI (the end).
Your own work on rotothink confirms this. I haven't looked for the link, but I'm sure it's easy to provide.
I agree that getting 5-6 players in the end game is critical in achieving value. In fact, it's the primary argument against 23 * $12 roster construction, that you miss out on $3-5 bargains at the bottom of the roster.
But this reinforces my point.
The ROI of players purchased >$10 is what, 0.75? Lower? Not spending $6, is closer to $4 in value "lost".
So moving that money the 5-6 bottom slots is advantageous, because it Ensures the you get the $4-6 players that fell through the cracks.
Your premise that all $1 are the same is erroneous. The First $1 player taken is more valuable than the Last $1. It's a Draft at this point, nothing else. And getting the firs 5 picks is worth $5.
Here's a comparison: imagine in TOUT, that your salary had to be spent on the first 18 roster spots. The last 5 Active roster spots are drafted. (ignore the reserve round for this exercise, doesn't exist). You (just you) have the choice, of saving $5, and picking all FIVE players of the reserve round, immediately. Which means your picks are 65 players earlier than someone elses last pick. Is That worth $5? To give you an idea, the MINIMUM these players could be worth is $4 per player. The answer should be a resounding Yes. You're spending $5, to earn $20 minimum. Otherwise your expected value from reserve round is around $8-11.
That is the direct comparison to saving $2 per slot, instead of $1.
You can't argue both sides. Either we are using your valuations, or we aren't.
You can't say "They're still bargains by my valuation"
AND: "Retrospective earnings the $1 buys frequently outperform the $2-3 buys."
Pick one method of evaluation, you can't talk out of both sides of your mouth.
If you choose point #1: then I've shown that saving $2 per player is a safer, more profitable strategy. Unless you can count on no other owner a) over bidding, b) DRAFTING your top 6 remaining players first, since you are stuck waiting 11 turns to try your luck again.
I understand you're dug in on this position now, but you're completely ignoring the logic and the math behind it, it's a very Liss-like approach, and something I thought you were above.
What do you mean they can't steal from you, they can SAY THE NAME FIRST, that's my entire point.
Well played, you obviously know your league pretty well. You saved yourself $6.
Although you prove my point, accidently. According to your numbers, you got $+17 in value. When the alternative best case was $+8. But since you had no buying power, if the Other owners had said $2 on your players, there was almost no other value left for you to take. There's no way you could have predicted (or enforced) that you nabbed the 5 most valuable players remaining, when you have to wait 11 players longer to pick again.
So, the "schooling"(poker term) present in your auction saved you. If I had been in the auction, and agreed with yor values, I would have taken all those players and earned $23 on $12 in salary. You would have taken then next 6 best, I'll say for $7, and earned $13 (according to your numbers). I win in this case too.
So, the only way in theory, where 6 x $1 is superior, is when you can COUNT on the other 11 owners, not ever picking your guys. Which means you didn't get bargains, you got 6 players no one else wanted.
You've actually got it backwards. The LATER you get to $1 buys (comparatively), the worse. Everyone else's $1 guys got taken BEFORE yours, which means those players are worse. (unless all the other owners made mistakes, which is not the purpose of this discussion).
That's like saying "I got to pick REALLY late in the draft, that's awesome Right?"
Consider an auction to be a draft where you buy your draft slots. (which it is, btw). Let's call it 250 player pool. Using Pecota, the distribution, the LAST player taken is worth exactly $1. The #225 is $2, the #205 is $3. The SOONER you acquire your players, during this stage, the better. I could show it mathematically, but you get the idea.
I was using the aggregate of your projections, to show my point, regardless of which values you use, having $2 per player, allows you to choose 5 players between ranks 150-200. If you wait, and are stuck in dollar days with everyone else, every pick you make is at best 11 picks worse than the last one (because every other has had a chance to pick the bones as well). The players you get will be closer to #210,220,230,240,250.
Yes, other owners will make mistakes/valuation differences, but your goal should Always be to have a Maximum value strategy, and this is Enhanced by having $2 left for every slot.
The easiest way for me to prove this is this: List every player that was taken in your home league at $1 or $2. Put the 5 best on your team, and assign them $2 salaries. Is this more profitable than the 5 you ended up with? If so, QED.
My point re: lower-level pitching.
The issue is when you are at $1 players, you are Drafting, and you are drafting last. Let's say every owner gets burned for 6 $1 players. But one owner has $12 left, (they saved $6 or whatever). Now the next best 72 players will need to be "drafted", the owner with $12 will get the BEST 6 players available. Keeping $12 is like going into the reserve rounds, with the first 6 overall picks.
Your own values support this. Using the NL LABR auction as an example, and removing catchers (i don't know why ALL of them went for $2...). The highest theoretical profit per player, is at the $2 range, the $1 players are actually lowest profit per player, until you get into the teens. (Note this is not ROI, its $ profit per player)
My point was, don't draft. We had 3 owners this year, that had to draft 10-12 players, and their teams are a wreck. If they had saved even $2 or $3 per slot, they would have gotten +20 or +30 in value.
Disclaimer: I did tweak the data somewhat, and remove some outliers of players that had been sent down/injured, etc. And I removed your ridiculous $8 value on Baez ;)
I have read so many articles of your(and value drafters, of which I consider myself a strong member) over the years, there always seems to be a trend with "value" drafted teams...(I did it 3 years in the NFBC NL-only, it got us top 5 only usually..)
namely: old, injured, young, pt concerns, no specialized talent (sb, saves), unknown, 1 hit wonders, etc.
ie: Navarro(unproven), Jeter(old,injured), Pujols(old, injured), Schoop(young, unproven), Cabrera(.700 ops 2013), Bautista(injured, aging), Hamilton(um ya), Soriano(Old), Markakis($15!), Victorino(injured, aging), Reddick(.686 ops, with pt concerns), Scherzer(career year), sanchez(injured), Holland(injured), Santiago(4-9 1.40 WHIP), Crain(injured), Harrison(injured), Hughes(just no.), Ogando(injured/terrible/PT concerns), Peacock(minors/pt concerns)
I know it's an only league, but usually with all this uncertainty you could get a bunch more upside maybe?
I imagine that your home league constantly squeezes you with every player you target, so it probably impossible to get good buys!
keep up the great work!
(not that anyone cares but I spent less than $55 in my deep keeper NL-only league(25% pitching inflation) and was able to snag this pitching staff: Arroyo, Bastardo, E.Jackson, Kendrick, Romo(Frozen $6), Ross, Thornburg, Jordan, Gee, Niese, Turner, Wood.)
(also just traded for $22 Papelbon after my $2 Parnell had TJ...)
I think that spending the extra $1 can net you ALOT of value in the mid-lower levels of pitching, especially in Only leagues if you do your homework, as oppose to the big bats where that money will always be a -.
Maybe let him throw a pitch in double A, before we worry about when he will have an impact...
The purpose of this list isn't "long term keepers", it's a factor of "timeframe, impact and probability.".
"OBP makes 5x5 resemble old school 4x4. In that format, the best hitters had higher earning ceilings, so at one point the temptation was to pay $50 or more for the top tier hitters. The problem with this approach is that a strong OBP hitter isn’t any less prone to completely crashing and burning as any other hitter. Pay $49 for Mike Trout and the losses are that much more severe if he suffers a serious injury in May. In the end, 5x5 OBP is a throwback to an older version of the game. You have to decide if potentially buying $45-50 worth of stats is worth the risk, of if you would rather let someone else get a mild profit in a best case scenario and come out of your auction with a more balanced team."
This is exactly why in my deep NL-only league we decided to keep AVE. we need more rosterable players and OBP just makes the best players better, and steals from the rest of the pool.(I do like the switch in deep mixed)
We switched to QS though, which steals value from MRs, which I have always loved with our daily transactions. (which is kind of a similar dilemma to the OBP v AVE problems but at least QS adds some value to the Bronson Arroyos of the world, so it is mitigated somewhat.)
keep up the amazing work Mike! Always remember that the majority of your fans don't bother posting comments, we just sit back and enjoy!
My mistake, I read the rule backwards.
No $1 players, you have 2.
people are soo lazy these days! :P
the last 15 years I have had to hand type all the values from magazines! (rotoman especially because he seems to take the Bid Limit approach like you do, but I do love the PFM these days, BECAUSE it is so pessimistic..)
if it projects me to my 1st place stat targets during/after the auction, I get giddy!
"success breeds contempt for those very qualities that purchased it".
- Steven Erikson
Here's the problem with PFM in an auction setting:
Inflation occurs during an auction, EVERY auction, as a result of variations in evaluation. In order to purchase a player, you must (in general), bid MORE than 11 other owners have a player valued at. Therefore, you are creating inflation for every other valuation, even if YOU think the purchase is at value. This effect is true for every early purchase, before position scarcity and reduced $$$ reduce inflation.
Which means, that inflation ALWAYS occurs, so the $2 bargains are not bargains because 11 other owners made mistakes, but because a different evaluation tool was used early. So even if EVERYONE thinks a $6 player is worth $6, there is never enough money left to allocate to all of those players.
The question is, should we use the PFM to adjust for that, or is that the owners responsibility?
The above point about adding Replacement level value to Injury risks is a good one, the argument could be made for any Minor Leaguer, or part time player. But the problem is, this is fine on a micro level (fixing hanley) but if we fix EVERY part time/injury player, what the hell is going to happen to the over $$$...
Anyway, PFM needs some modifiers for replacement levels, and theoretical auctions, because this year it is just Out-To-Lunch, much more than any other year I've seen.
That's the odds of picking 14th exactly both times, but in his first league he had no idea where he would pick, and maybe didn't really care. but once the first 14th pick was established then he really just had a 1 in 15 chance.
just sayin' :P
although we might assume that the 2nd last pick is THE WORST PICK, which seems to be the consensus around my leagues, so lets just stick with the 1 in 225!
Watch football? QED.
They've figured it out. It's why front office moves are bigger news than player news. The salaries represent this as well.
Sorry, Harrison is there.
Notable players missing, that have value in pecota:
These guys are all $5 or higher in Pecota NL-Only, so I figured it might be an oversight
Devils advocate here..
But maybe after you throw a projectile 95mph at a dudes head multiple times over the years, you don't say "**** you" when he steps towards the mound and asks if it was intentional..especially with a guy who almost had a broken wrist a few days before from a HBP, and missed half the year last year due to injury.
He's probably just a thug thou...except ..he has never charged the mound in his career before, and he is the leader of HBP.
I stumbled on this tidbit in the Miami newspaper, no fantasy write ups seem to know about it. It adds a little more context to the Miami Decision:
"Fernandez pitched in only one Grapefruit League game before being reassigned to minor-league camp. But he made the Marlins reconsider after a pair of minor-league outings in which he dominated Double A hitters.
In one, he struck out nine in only four innings. In the other he delivered five no-hit innings"
Notice that second sentence... Jeebus.
Amazing artlices lately, thank you!
Keep it up!
Does it really take 95-100 to win a 12-team "only" redraft league?
Maybe my personal leagues are a tad "small sample size", but with 13 teams the last few years, 95 would crush it..with 130 less total points, I would assume anything over 85ish would have a great shot at taking home the hardware.
(This really is a crucial point, so any insight you could provide would be appreciated!)
And thanks for all the amazing article, great to see you at BP!
Perhaps a reason to root against the US as a US citizen would be due to the large number of American players who bowed out?
(I'm a Canadian, and Votto played, so I was happy)
Also, Mexico, don't pick fights with a bunch of Hockey playing Canadian athletes! Just sayin'!
Use these formulas, then it's just a cut and paste:
1) With the combination of these forumlas, you sniff out the SPACE between first and last name.
2) You can use LEFT to get just the first name (result of search, -1),
3) Then you can use LENB() to get the number of characters in the name
4) Use RIGHT(), using results of LENB, minus Results of SEARCH
5) Use the string to recombine your first and last name in the format of the PFM.
A lot of forcasts and results use standard naming, so this will help tremendously in saving time.
(I know I didn't spell it out exactly, which is too convoluted, but these are the tools you need to do it.)
What does it look like if you pull the closers out of the pitching numbers? Are they murdering the $15-$19 bracket?
Am I crazy? I can't see the Jays here..?
The short answer is, nothing. With a properly designed value system, once you meet the minimum threshold for points in a category (which in saves, is usually around zero) each $2 spent gives another point, regardless of the player.
My only caveat: In a mixed league, saves are easier to come by, so the first 15-20 might be worthless anyway, and you would be better off getting 2 other closers or sp.
a couple of things..
1. Does this ever so slighty confirm the old adage "Injury Prone"?
2. A friend of my just texted me: "You know what would be helpful though? I list of the at risk players for 2013 so I don't have to do it!"
I suppose i should add, our league ends up closer to 160/100, than 180/80
First off, been following you forever, Thank you for this list..but now everyone knows!!! :)
Second, I am in a keeper league(3 contract years), where people usually have closers at crazy cheap prices from FAABing, or previous auctions (grilli $1, cishek $1, etc)..if I am competing and need saves, how much inflation is too much to spend? (We usually have around 15-20% pitching inflation) For instance, I am freezing Putz at $16, but the PFM usually returns inflated numbers like $45 for Kimbrel etc. i know $16 it is a fair price, but what are the "real" value gains here? And is it worth paying an extra $8-12/closer if you have to?
Thirdly, our league has 30 man roster, 3 utility and 5 "reserve" spots which can be used for daily transactions (ie, streaming starters).. What would be a good roster setup for the PFM? (I get similar $ results for various constructs, but there are some large differences..)
I usually go 28 "spots" by just add 1 more util, and 2 RP to get the numbers "close"..but it is still "eyeballing", I hate that!
TLDR! Sorry for such terrible wording! And welcome to BP!!!
At least your not freezing, Samardzija, Miley, Harvey, Detwiler, B.Parnell, D.Hernandez...combined for nearly a 3.00 ERA last year, averaging out to 4.25+ this year. I'm doomed! :)
Pecota always hates everybody who did well last year, and loves guys like Nolasco who suck every year. Those new to the system need to just learn to slightly ignore it for pitchers... IMHO
(Although they are great predicting playing time)
Fine, I'll say what everybody is thinking.. Testosterone.
sorry, to go all PED on you but with the recent Suspensions, and Victor Conte saying 50% of players are "probably" still using, I just can't be nieve anymore.
and it makes me very sad...
Rizzo will be just fine without Soriano..
The Myth of Protection
Heck, even MLB is starting to get it.."It exists because the players believe it exists".. sounds like SOMEONE else I have been told about.
Please get this up and running again!
It was the best new addition to the site in ages
This is amazing.
Can we add AGE to the summary?
Come on Derek... That's lazy journalism.
When you've got a WHIP of 2.22, the K per 9 stat isn't exactly telling,you are seeing over 5.2 batters per inning. Lacking the ability to get anyone out EXCEPT by strikeout, is hardly a compelling stat.
Here's what you SHOULD have said: "Lincecums K% are declining, but not that drastically, I'd expect bounceback to 2011 levels..."
Here are the releveant K% by year.
2008 Giants 28.6 %
2009 Giants 28.8 %
2010 Giants 25.8 %
2011 Giants 24.4 %
2012 Giants 23.8 %
and now Tout has removed the swingman from Mixed so you can relax there DC!
My long term keeper league has 3 util (1 HAS to be a hitter) 30 man total roster with 5 reserves, been doing in forever!
This makes it hard to us the PFM!...and on that topic, would you have any suggestions on the best lineup to enter in the PFM (especially since it is near impossible to win without streaming pitchers!).
I usually set it at 11 Pitchers and pray the numbers come out well!
I take it the PFM is still not working? (it has Matt Kemp for 26 HRs, last years projections I assume.)
"Umpires, for all their faults, are highly professional and especially when everyone's paying attention. They just don't miss 'em on purpose."
I love Rob Neyer, but why do we always assume that this statement is true?
I know alot of people, especially in business, I would consider "Professional", but that professionalism tends to lag without proper motivation. Very few people in life are true self-motivators, and without any MLB mechanism of firing or demoting an umpire(let alone bonuses for good work), why assume that ALL umpires continue to train/focus/workhard at 100% of their ability?
"Some negatives are to eventually wind up with the players you wanted "
There's your problem right there. You shouldn't "want" any players at all. You should adjust prices ahead of time to reflect how much you "want" them. That way a deal is a deal, regardless of the name attached to it. Wanting players is the surest way to lose.
There are TWO universal truths in an Auction:
***When the first player of the auction is purchased, 12 other owners thought he was overpaid ***
***When the last player is bought, it doesn't matter what the other 12 owners think***
The trick to doing well, is finding that middle ground, where you stop bidding against every owner , and just bid against a few. It's this sweet spot that wins the day.
Oh how accurate your metaphor turned out to be...
Thats why he used SIERA and WXRL/LEV instead of ERA...ANY ERA(opponent neutral or not) is basically garbage. There is more to a pitcher than just the batters he faces(Lefty or Righty) and the actual outcome of his efforts. (ie. Defense, Park factors, BABIP, etc.)
Over the years I have had the exact thoughts as Yadelman, and as much has I like to think I know about stats and probabilities it is just always hard for me to accept the usual prediction of 35-36 HRs for Adam Dunn when he hit 40 5 years in a row. It always seems that projection systems take the last year(or 3 years) production, lop-off 10-20% and bingo! you will be right about .700(approx.)...right around where the industry leaders in projections are. It is easy to predict vanilla...but what we want you to predict is Rocky Road!
You need to predict Outliers here people!...oh wait, what is the definiton of Outlier again??
(Of course I realize that to get the best overall pool of data, PECOTA is clearly amazing, but you HAVE to add to it your own ideas if you ever want to win a Fantasy league...you have to pick SOMEbody! Thats kind of what the Breakout and Attrition scores are for, but again, same problem. I bet Justin Upton has Breakout protential and Randy Winn has high Attrition...and I didn't even peak!)
I'm with ivynora, generally...lump all OFs together and assign them to "tiers". I also like the "bucket" idea for those last handful of guys at each position..maybe into a Speed, Power, Average type setup, where that player has the greatest chance of chipping-in for your team if they get some playing time. ie. E.Bonifacio(speed), W.Harris(pow/speed), O.Salazar (pow/ave)?
(On another note: if you are in a league where you don't have to deal with players of this "caliber"...why are you even using BP for fantasy? Having a tough time deciding between Pujols or ARod?!)
FYI get into a 12-13 team, 5x5, NL or AL only, AUCTION, keeper league immediately, you will thank me!
I have always hated that "home-grown" arguement...they may have been "in-house" originally, but the Yankees are one of a only few teams that can afford to sign their developed talent beyond their arbitration years..heck, that can even afford to GO to arbitration...
"home-grown" no longer appies after a player hits his arbitration/free agent years. IMHO
Rotoworld quoted Will late last night about Brian McCann's eye, but nothing here on the site about it..strange! (or is there some other place you post that I am not aware of?)
"According to Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, Brian McCann's eye issues may end up landing him on the disabled list."
The Houston broadcasters just mention that "Minute Maid Park is a "neutral" park according to Baseball Prospectus"
nice to see some well informed broadcasters.