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I agree. That made little sense and wasn't at all helpful.
Great work. This is one of my favourite articles. It will be missed but I also plan to re-read them for useful information.
Estrada is also getting 2 starts this week against StL and CIN I think. Start?
Is there any significance to the ordering of the players?
I rather thought Terry Ryan's assessment of the MIN performance was rather decent. He took responsibility for the players available to play.
I am surprised Chris Davis hasn't been addressed here.
Estrada also now has two starts this week.
I was offered Rendon for carlos Correa in a 20 team dynasty league. I turned it down because our league's structure requires us to start 4 MIs and since I am in complete rebuilding mode a SS of correa's calibre 2 years from now when I expect to be competitive is very valuable. Did I make a mistake? I do wonder.
In a 12 team league I don't think the pitching will survive. You really need to upgrade there IMO. Perhaps moving one of those surplus 3B can get something done. :)
Price has to work daily with Dusty Baker. I'm pretty sure that it could get very stressful if Price publicly contradicts Baker's preferences. We don't know what is being said privately.
I would definitely want the Wieters/Darvish side. He'll have to drop a player to roster the extra body - fact #1 to consider - probably Alvarez dropped or to the bench - same difference.
Putz >>> Marmol
Wieters >>> Jaso
Darvish >>> Ogando
so the question is how much better than Alvarez is Zimmerman. Not enough IMO to justify the trade.
What round(s) do you see these players being drafted making allowances for the fact that the spring season will bear on the results.
I find that mixed leagues with 20 or more teams provide many of the same challenges. I do agree with the basic idea though and am considering moving away from the smaller (12 team) mixed leagues altogether.
Thanks and I appreciate the Spreadsheet.
Is Micker Zapata also Micker Adolfo as per the notes?
I think that having all ballots made public would be beneficial for the process. It might make those casting the ballots more accountable and hopefully would eliminate a lot of the frivolous votes.
What are the chances that the Braves do a sign and trade move like they did with Soriano a couple of years ago?
How does Kevin Quackenbush, RP stack up. I realize he's just in HiA but could he make the show in 2013?
I must say I'm having a little trouble wrapping my mind around ARod's handling of the issue. ARod "felt better than ever just before the playoffs"? and then we are asked to believe his struggles in September and October were related to a hip problem? and then, to top it off, he couldn't direct the doctors when they examined him as to the correct hip to examine? This borders on a farce.
I'm curious as to how he found an extra 3-4 miles/hour on his fastball going from 90-91 to touching 95 seems like a big jump over the winter doesn't it?
Given the number of hamstring, oblique and related muscle injuries that seem to occur, the idea of improving the general fitness level of baseball players seems, to me at least, to be long overdue.
Jose Quintana appears to be scheduled for 2 starts (vs DET; @LAA). A sit or start? I'm inclined towards sitting him.
Congratulations Kevin. You've earned this reward. Your work here at BP is the main reason I've continued to subscribe to the site. I'll continue to do so but will miss your contributions. I'm sure that I will get good advice from your replacement whoever that may be but it will take him/her some time to earn my confidence as you have done.
Again, congratulations and best wishes for success in the new job.
I think you mean Zach Britton not Zach Wheeler as the replacement SP for Morales.
I think this could prove to be a very very interesting set of articles. I always welcome efforts to temper expectations about prospects as a way of getting a better handle on their value and role in both real and fantasy baseball.
I can't see to find the link on the Home Page.
I would think a John Danks with 5 years of cost certainty is a much more tradeable asset than a John Danks with 1 year of control before heading to free agency. Given the shortage of quality pitchers available, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Danks wound up wearing a NYY or BOS jersey in 2012.
A Drabek for Beckham deal might work for both teams.
My bad it's only 4 games.
Probaby because they trail BOS by 11 games in the WC race.
From the Angel's perspective the failure to get Beltre may have led to the acquisition of Vernon Wells to get that "big bat" so the difference could have been even greater.
It is possible that Johnson, having demonstrated the ability to pitch effectively in high leverage situations, will be perceived by Showalter and all as being more valuable in that role. The argument being that it will be easier to find a closer than a top set up RP.
I understand that Oakland has moved Grant Green from 2B to CF this year. How does he stack up? I realize it is probably too early to get a really good assessment.
One can hope that Colletti's tenure as GM won't last past the 1st day a new owner takes over.
Interesting analysis. I haven't fully absorbed all of it yet but it is food for thought. One small question - what is the rationale behind the "....we’d use 75 percent of the player and 25 percent of the mean." or more specifically, how was the 75/25 split derived?
Fosse's opinion of the Posey/Cousins incident is almost exactly the opposite of that of Johnny Bench. Interesting.
How does he rank compared to Rodriguez?
It appears to be one of the axioms of Sabermetrics that "lineup protection" is a myth since studies have consistently been unable to establish its existence. And yet, ancedotal evidence (mainly from players I suspect)seems to suggest that that it does exist. I'm wondering if the sabermetric problem is possibly one of specification? Lineup protection (to me at least) is something that is critical only infrequently, existing primarily in key situations and, as a consequence, may be buried under the noise of routine ABs.
I'm also sure that Erlin is a little taller than 10" as stated in the photo caption :)
For those of us who haven't listened to your live comments on Taijain Walker, could you summarize them here?
I really enjoy this kind of article. It gives a lot of substance to subsequent player analysis.
Can I assume from the above that the Forecast Manager doesn't incorporate a "remainder of year" use for roto leagues?
The reference to trading Hernandez was attributed to FO people which seems relevant to me. I'd also dispute your assessment of the Yankees system. I think they could probably put together a very good package for Hernandez should they decide to do so. I would also note that TEX may have a need for pitching and their system is still quite deep.
Any word on Feliciano? Is he having surgery or will he continue to try rehab?
Francoeur and Blue Jays? When did this happen?
fridays would be best for me.
As someone who doesn't frequent the betting lines at all, I'm totally confused by the numbers involved. What exactly does minus-121 and plus-106 etc actually mean?
I think most fans are buying into the approach with the expectation that by 2013 the team will be positioned to make a serious challenge for a playoff spot. At that point we'll have a better idea of whether the strategy worked or not. But that it is the correct path is not in question as far as I'm concerned. It is!
OK, fixed that my Excel was hiding the tabs at the bottom.
When I open the spreadsheet, it's empty. No player data at all.
Wasn't AA the TOR GM when Rios was waived?
Perhaps it has already been written but it strikes me that there's a book here for the telling.
I have to agree. BJ Upton is a problem case IMO and not a good addition. I'd perhaps be talking to the DBacks about Drew and "pitching" Volquez and perhaps Alonso in that direction. I also agree the Justion Upton might be a good return although you would certainly have to include Alonso in the offer. Perhaps Alonso/Janish/Volquez/Mahoney for Upton/Drew.
I really have doubts that MIN would make a Lowe for Cuddyer+ trade even if ATL kicked in a substantial portion of Lowe's salary. MIN is looking for an "Ace" and Lowe hardly qualifies - he's a mid-rotation SP at best and MIN has plenty of those.
Is there reason to beconcerned about heavy use of the slider? I seem to remember reading something to the effect that pitchers who rely heavily on the slider are more prone to elbow problems. Does delivering the pitch put more strain on the elbow than say a fastball or curve?
Does Dunn have the basic physique to perform at close to peak levels late into his career. It strikes me that players like Gonzalez, McGriff were very different physical specimens as compared to Dunn and more durable.
There would, I think, be a huge opportunity for the runner on 2nd to steal 3rd since the 3B would be playing in the SS position.
I would also suspect that there's a material difference between a player-GM altercation and one involving a player and a family member.
Troy Glaus appears to have missed a couple of games due to a knee injury. I've heard virtually nothing about it so I'm assuming it's not a major problem but will you be able to provide more information?
I thought Kyle Russell was in the Dodger system?
I was a little surprised to read that the Mets couldn't (wouldn't??) assign Perez to the minors because he wouldn't accept the assignment. What are the grounds on which he can refuse?
Having had kidney stones, all I can say is that Olivo is one tough hombre. I could barely function with mine. The thought of playing a game boggles the mind.
The logical extension of this argument is that athletes should only train at the distances they compete. In reality and using running as an example, most coaches will have runners training at various distances. A normalweek of training for a 5K runner may involve sprints, mile intervals, a long run of 10 miles, etc. Training at the same thing constantly doesn't exercise all of the muscles involved and does cause those that are being exercised to be overused.
Hardly, Bay's knee problems are an on-going issue and have been for several years. The Red Sox concern was quite valid. The Mets were simply too desperate to care.
BP's own PECOTA estimates suggest a $20M value for Wells over the 2010-14 period so it's not altogeher impossible that the Jays could pay enough of his contract for some team to want him. Also given that they don't seem to have a ready-made CF in their system, employing Wells in CF for the next couple of years seems a no-brainer - he's certainly not blocking anyone's development. And he does provide at least replacement level production and perhaps more in CF - although admitedly his defensive metrics seem to be slipping.
I suspect that they'll keep him for a couple of more years and then arrange for a buyout package (with deferred payments) that leaves him a free agent.
I don't know if this is possible but a "Myths vs Reality" article about contract negotiations would be interesting.
Interesting article. Is there a significant difference in handling the issue for someone like ARod and a youngster just getting started? Just a curiousity based question but how would you have possibly scripted the Woods fiasco to avoid it being such a travesty?
I think most of us can reach that interpretation but one shouldn't have to parse a sentence several times to confirm the cnclusion. That's a very poorly written and unnecessarily convoluted sentence.
The other aspect is that with a RHP on the mound the cost of being caught goes up significantly with Howard at the plate. I wonder how many of those SB attempts were made after Howard was retired?
I do think you've missed one very salient fact. Spahn spent 3 years 1943-5,his age 22-24 period, fighting in WWII. Hard to know how much of an impact that had but it certainly cost him some MLB time.
I was under the impression that this was a review of his 2009 predicted rankngs. Obviously Choo wasn't on that list.
While I'm not a big fan of the DH, the fact that it's in place in the AL means that it won't be going away. There are too many player's who career depends on it for that to happen. I'd rather see it adopted by the NL and end the silly dichotomy that exists. Perhaps it will lead to a reduction in the existing disparity bewteen the two leagues.
I can hardly wait for the player who returns to the bench 9and McGuire) after a poor AB and telling McGuire "I'm not going to talk about the past".
Towers wouldn't be the guy I'd be looking for in TOR. As noted a major area of weakness in the Padres during his tenure was player development. That's an area that TOR has to get right if they hope to succeed in the AL East. I'd really like to see them get someone with a strong scouting/player development background.
While I realize that winning the top draft pick does confer value. it's a p___poor way of evaluating the front-office and GMs. It strikes me that a better approach would be to factor in some "quasi-rigourous" estimate of the top 20 or 30 prospects in the team's system. That way at least, the ability of the FO to develop talent internally can be assessed and included as part of the evaulation.
No mention of Tommy Hanson. Is he not considered a risk?
Too bad someone can't rescue the BJs from Vernon Wells' contract.
Jeff, perhaps :)
I don't get anything other than a link to GCD which isn't helpful at all.
Thought, you know, that this was, you know, a pretty good, you know, interview apart, you know,from way too many "you knows". That's a habit he's got to drop.
How similar is Webb's injury to that which McGowan suffered and req' surgery for?
I found it readable for the most part but did need more ancedotal parts - story-telling if you like.
Apparently about 4-6 weeks (as Will mentioned).
Having watched Martinez try and hobble to 1B on a ground out, I really wonder if he is even capable of DH'ing. That hurt just to watch. As someone posted elsewhere, all he needed was a parrot on his shoulder and he could have auditioned for the movie "Treasure Island".
I must say that while I only skimmed through the McCauley Blog I found no reference to hometown scoring in Gwinnett. Perhaps it was on the earlier entries.
Is there any particular reason why the process could not use a two-week window rather than the current one-week? I agree with the main concern which is that we weren't really given enough time to digest the articles. Operating with a 2 week window would allow 1 week for readers and a week for the survivors to prepare their next article.
Quite right too. Trouble is a guy like Garland is almost untradeable - nobody believes that he's a different SP. Only the truly desperate, e.g. Oliver Perez owners, get interested.
Thanks for the heads-up though, I'll look into moving Braden.
Interesting. I do think that there are several others (besides Santana/Greinke) that are worth holding. A qERA around 4.00 is pretty decent - I'd not be quick to trade Cueto, Rodriguez or Romero. At least not yet for the latter.
If you look at a map, it is obvious that TOR could just as easily play in the AL Central division - wouldn't that be a blast.
How is Ben Sheets rehab going? and what is a reasonable time frrame for him to return to an active MLB roster? I presume post ASB but is there any indication of the most likely/possible general date?
Great article. I've been waiting for something like this for several years.
Just what the Brewers need, another very good hitter who can handle an infield position - other than 1B perhaps. They need to switch leagues ASAP.
When you say his fielding is "laughable", does that mean he's simply hasn't had the practice req'd or is he simply a poor fielder period.
While I don't want to re-open the TOR organization debate, I do feel that your comment about the organization was too open-ended. It "pointed a finger of blame" without stipulating how or what the organization did to create or aggravate the problem. It was "luck or something the organization did" and since you don't want to subscribe to "bad luck", ergo the team must have done something wrong - even if you've no clue what that might be.
I'll adopt Occam's Razor here.
Anyway, to get to me topic of real interest - Ben Sheets.
Is there any further information/updates on his status in terms of how his recovery is proceeding and when he could be expected to begin pitching?
The Blue Jays seem to be considering an ultra-cautious approach with Dustin McGowan with Gaston wondering if it wouldn't be better to shut him down for 2009 altogether. is this conservative approach warranted? Necessary?
Sounds awfully like the Toronto maple Leaf Hockey club with one huge difference. The Leafs know they can find 20,000 rears to put into the seats for 40 games a year so pricing is maxed out. Can\'t pay for season tickets, too too bad ... there\'s lots more who can and will. Unfortunately, the Leafs don\'t have the same commitment to putting a very good team together as the Yankees and the club is horrible and has been so for decades.
Weiterssounds like the 2nd coming of Johnny Bench. i can remember the hoopla that surrounded Bench\'s introduction to MLB. The WOWs were as much for his catching abilities as for his hitting. Piazza always seemed one-dimensional to me - great hitter but average or worse behind the plate. Weiters sounds much more like Bench than Piazza.
What\'s the outlook on Josh Smoker, P who seems to have disappeared off the radar.His LoA performance in 2008 was certainly not inspiring although he did maintain a pretty decent K rate.
I\'m not appealing to authority but rather to the fact they they may (1) have information that we are not privy to; (2) must operate within a budget; and (3) their jobs are on the line. In economic hard times (based on what happened in the last \"recession\") GMs may be very justified in being more conservative than usual.
I do find that most of us are much more willing to \"risk\" someone else\'s money than our own :)
With all due respect to Joe and his opinions, I have to give greater credibility to the GMs involved who know their team\'s needs, budgets and other constraints. They are the ones answerable to the owners for the millions in salary that are at risk andIMO are the best judges of the risk-reward situation. I suspect that in the current economic environment, the balance is towards a more conservative approach in terms of offering arbitration. It does appear that salaries are likely to be lower than initially expected except for the top 2 or 3 FAs which suggests that accepting arbitration may become the more sensible option for many more players than expected.
ahhhhhhhhhhh - meant cabrera (orlando)
I find it hard to believe that with the amount of money ($40M-$45M)the Braves have available for FAs that they are expected to be aggressive in the FA market. I could see them, if they land Peavy (God forbid) being aggressive for a SS, e.g Furcal, Cepeda.
The better Branch Rickey quote was \"It\'s better to trade a player a year early than a year late\".
Braves - get what I can for Chipper and build for 2011-12
Blue Jays - ditto re: Hallady and same plan
Neither team has the talent base to compete successfully in 2009 or probably 2010 - the Ray\'s approach is to place the emphasis on developing in-house talent - the Braves are in a much better position thatn the BJs - don\'t piss the talent away on the Peavy\'s of this world ... yet.
Is it possible (probable?) that the next \"Rays\" will be an organization that not only emphasizes player development but is both good and lucky in acquiring talent. It seems to me that despite the loss of talent in the Teixeira trade, the Atlanta Braves have a number of good young players in their system.
What is onderman\'s status? The last I heard he expected to be ready for Spring Training. Any complications? Any reason to expect a later return?
Checking further ........ all 3 Alou brothers (Matty, Felipe and Jesus) played for SF in 1963.
didn\'t all 3 Alou (Manny, Felipe and Jesus) brothers play on the same team one year? I seem to remember them actually playing the 3 OF positions one game.
Any word on Shaun Marcum\'s injury?
I realize that he wasn\'t covered by recent UTK articles but I\'m a little curious about Bonderman\'s status. The last I hard he was expected to be recovered by spring training. Is this still the case.
Thanks and I appreciate the comments section.