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keef66
23 comments | 27 total rating | 1.17 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/1775
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 2

The oddest comment in the whole article is "If Braun is truly a cheat, he will slip up again." That's implausible and/or naively devoted to karmic sensibilities. To use Goldman's analogous case, I doubt that Joe Jackson would have gone anywhere near a gambler had he been allowed to stay in baseball. I can't see Braun slipping up again, even assuming he was using PEDs.

Feb 24, 2012 9:38 AM on Say It Ain't So, Braun!
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

If Adams and Bevens and Lavagetto, shouldn't Larsen be here?

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

I meant wild card champ, not division.

Sep 27, 2011 7:00 AM on
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

Does odds report include the possibility of the one-game playoff between Sox and Rays (thus projecting only one winner), or do the percentages represent the aggregate chance of the team either winning or tying for the division championship (allowing for two champions)?

Sep 27, 2011 7:00 AM on
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

Are any series considered great that don't go at least 6 games? The 2005 series had quite a bit of drama, with a 14-inning game, no game decided by more than 2 runs, a charismatic manager on one side and 3 HOFers on the other. The early games were plenty good enough to draw people in, but I doubt this one will stick in the memory of many baseball fans outside of Houston or Chicago. Conversely, the 1960 series must have been incredibly dull for most of the 7 games, but because of the way it ended, it remains a classic. Maybe there's a distinction to be made between how exciting a series is at the moment and how exciting it seems in retrospect. Some, of course (1991, e.g.), are both.

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

"indoctrinated" Chapman and left-handed talent? what does that mean?

Oct 13, 2010 10:55 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

I'm disagree that TBS, especially the voice of Buck Martinez, was critical toward the umpires. It seemed that whenever the replay (with whatever TBS calls the Fox Tracker) showed called strikes clearly outside the zone, Buck would say something like "It appears that the ball may have been outside." He chided meekly when Meals made atrocious calls on Oliver's strikeout of Crawford, but it was still a long way from outright criticism.

Oct 11, 2010 9:15 AM on LDS Day Four Roundup
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

One more exception--Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama. That's a very good return, but it's complicated by the fact that Guillen didn't become a star until he went to Detroit.

Jul 31, 2010 8:48 AM on The Futility of Selling
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 5

Re: Joyce quote, it's "(stuff)" the first time, "shit" the second. Then "(butt)" later. I guess the policy is only one of the 7 forbidden words per quote?

Jun 07, 2010 8:22 AM on Week of May 31-June 6
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

Part of Joe's argument is that Ortiz was already signed for 2007 at a substantially lower price. That's why he excludes that season.

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 7

I think the thesis of this article is "Andrew Friedman is really, really smart."

Apr 13, 2010 9:08 AM on Trading Evan Longoria
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 2

Think of how perfect and obvious a choice somebody like Larry Dierker would have been. He's seen the game from the point of view of player, manager, broadcaster and author. If I can come up with him on the spur of the moment, it shows how little thought was put into this formation.

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

The fact that he said "I was stupid" relates to Joe's comments about Jeter in his Unfiltered post yesterday. Even for us inveterate Yankee-haters, it's hard not to feel grudging admiration for The Captain.

Oct 30, 2009 11:08 AM on Some Guys We Missed
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

What does this mean for Berkman's chances? His career is very close to Helton's, just two years later. Their slash stats aren't that different (Helton's .328/.427/.570 is just a little better than Berkman's .300/.413/.558), and I doubt that Minute Maid helped nearly as much as Coors. What are Fat Elvis's JAWS?

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

How does Price's projection and the overall projection change since we know that Price will not be the 5th starter now?

 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 2

Can someone remind me if postseason is factored into PECOTA? I\'m wondering about Upton\'s projection of 16 HR\'s, just over double what he did in the playoffs.

Feb 09, 2009 8:20 PM on August 12-14, 2001
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

Enjoyable articles on both Henderson and Raines The most shocking (and gratifying, for this Astros fan) aspect of this list is Jose Cruz at #12. I doubt many people would think of him as a better player than Rice, Simmons, Medwick, Goslin, Brock, etc. Bill James touted him as a great player in 1987 and ranked him at 29 in New Abstract. It\'s nice to see him much higher here. Cheo got a grand total of 2 votes for HOF in 1994. He\'s got to rank close to the top on the ratio of JAWS-to-BBWAA votes.

Dec 17, 2008 6:19 AM on A Rock-y Road
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

I hadn\'t heard Hamels\'s comments. That\'s a good piece of evidence in trying to decide who the rain harms more. Thanks.

Oct 28, 2008 3:54 PM on Closer to a Tie
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 3

I (a Rays\' fan, fwiw) am not sure that calling the game in the 6th \"was completely unfair to the Phillies,\" as Joe claims. Suppose you\'re Charlie Manuel and you\'re given this choice at the top of the 6th: a. we call it now or b. you get to pitch Hamels 1 more inning in the rain and then we call it. Don\'t you choose b? It seems that the weather was harshest on the fielders, then on the batters and then on the pitchers. IF your pitcher is throwing well, as Hamels was, it\'s to the Phillies\' advantage to get 1 inning rather than none. He\'s the least affected by the weather, given his ability to grip the ball and see his target reasonably well. If the game had stayed 2-1--and it\'s very reasonable to see that as the more likely outcome of the top of the 6th--nobody would say this is unfair to the Phillies. I think we would be more likely to see it as unfair to the Rays. Bad decisions abound, as Joe says, but the ultimate result of the tie is clouding Joe\'s judgment with regard to who got shafted.

Oct 28, 2008 11:31 AM on Closer to a Tie
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 1

What counts as interminable when the game already starts so late? 90 minutes? It would be pretty stupid for MLB to begin a WS game at 10 p.m., given that these games last a minimum of 3 1/2 hours. An ending time of 1:30 a.m. seems very likely right now. Infuriating to EST fans.

Oct 25, 2008 5:05 PM on On the Road Again
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

I agree about Beckett returning for the 5th, but Francona was only returning the favor of Maddon\'s blunder. Kazmir had no business pitching the 5th, given how badly he had done up to that point. Both managers did poorly in trying to get the magical five innings out of their starters. Both were channeling Grady Little in that inning. The big difference is Maddon\'s decision to leave Wheeler in for 3 1/3 (!) innings. If Francona had shown the same faith in stretching Papelbon out (he had only thrown 18 pitches in 1 1/3), the Sox\'s chances improve dramatically. Sending in Timlin is definitely surrender.

Oct 12, 2008 11:00 AM on Notes on ALCS Game Two
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

Couldn\'t Loney have caught that? He seemed too intent on staying on the base, and he looks left at Victorino even before comes back down. His left leg stays splayed out at a weird angle, and the ball seems to go in and out of his glove. If he had simply taken one step off the bag, I don\'t see that he misses the ball. Victorino would still have reached, and presumably it wouldn\'t have mattered, given the homer(s) that followed, but you never know.

Oct 10, 2008 11:30 AM on Notes on NLCS Game One
 
keef66
(1775)
Comment rating: 0

Joe\'s column appears the same day that a writer for the St. Pete Times--John Romano--makes exactly the argument that Joe demolishes here. It\'s a very strange scolding of the home town team. http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article802364.ece

Sep 09, 2008 6:59 PM on Rays Relevance