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sbnirish77
754 comments | -1079 total rating | -1.43 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/17711
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This is all about the Yankees getting below the salary cap at some point to reset the tax.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I was wondering mouth agape last night how Grandal managed to hit that pitch. This article explains it was well as anything.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't it becoming clearer every day that Baez is becoming the superior player to Russell in every way making Theo's need to pigeon-hole Russell into the SS job over Baez only necessary to better justify his trade?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I hope map2history reads your comment about HOF criteria and realizes the error of his declaration "By definition, the HOF enshrines baseball's greatest players."

Aug 16, 2016 3:14 PM on Rage Over Roids
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I thought making the Hall of Fame was an honor. Why admit someone who brought dishonor to the game? Or who at least made the decision so very difficult by creating the confusion over the very numbers that have have been very important to baseball? The fact that you can't know what to believe in the Steroid Era is the real damage done to baseball. And for that alone any contributor to the confusion shouldn't expect any honor to come their way.

Aug 16, 2016 10:14 AM on Rage Over Roids
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

For anyone who still thinks steroids have no effect upon performance listen to Lenny Dykstra's interview with Boomer and Carton from this morning. "You can’t take a nobody and make him into an All-Star." http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/08/16/boomer-carton-lenny-dykstra-spends-quality-time-with-the-guys/

Aug 16, 2016 8:01 AM on Rage Over Roids
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

The apologist's Bible ... 1. Steroids have no effect upon performance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares? I posted this nearly a decade ago as BP was working through its understanding of steroids. This article is just another step in the journey.

Aug 16, 2016 7:48 AM on Rage Over Roids
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

At one point Ziegler pitched to 5 consecutive left handed batters.Madness.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"Therefore, the Cubs acquired a man who has, at least once, committed domestic abuse. How in the world are we, as humans, meant to react to that?" Your application to work at ESPN has been accepted.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Who was Sylvia's mother?

Jun 16, 2016 9:24 PM on Who is Sylvia?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Pete never realized we were laughing at him and not with him.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Now they won't have Rollins as an excuse

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Latos 28 now gone replaced by Shields 34 and Morneau signed but goes on DL. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Erik+Johnson">Erik Johnson</a></span> replaced by a very much lesser pitching prospect. Kenny just switching chairs on the Titanic now.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The White Sox have doubled down each and every year since they went to the World Series. Including <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Adam+Eaton">Adam Eaton</a></span> as a core component is a joke. Getting him out of CF is one of the biggest improvements the team has seen. The one young guy Kenny took a chance on (Avasil Garica) has been a major disappointment if not a outright flop. Frazier and Lawrie were at least an attempt to put some major league talent at 3B and 2B. In Lawrie's case I'd say a bold attempt. Jackson was signed to get Eaton'ds pathetic glove out of CF. Mission accomplished. God don't blame anything on Rollins. They has no SS and Rollins was brought here as a filler until <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Tim+Anderson">Tim Anderson</a></span> comes up. I do agree they wasn't enough talent (unless a number of the acquisitions hit their 80% percentile)but the first week was a mirage solely because of their relief pitching. Even then the offense wasn't doing that well. People ran with that first month and jacked up their expectations only to be faced with reality. This article would have been really something special if it was written when the team was in 1st place.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

What'll It Take to Make the Royals Sellers? For sabermetrics to finally be right about them.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

"With <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=656">Marlon Byrd</a></span> joining fellow Indian <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50910">Abraham Almonte</a></span> on the Suspended List..." Talk about burying a story. Exactly what I would expect from the PED apologist Baseball Prospectus.

Jun 03, 2016 11:44 PM on June 3, 2016
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Very good article. The type for which I read Baseball Prospectus.

May 31, 2016 1:54 PM on The Knee
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

There was a BP article tracking the long list of failure for the development of young pitchers by the Orioles over the last decade. Could anyone provide a link to that article? Might bear re-reading.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Just a reminder - 30 of 38 BP writers, in yet another collective group think, sorry, scratch that my apologies, after independent analysis, picked the Astros to win the AL West.

May 04, 2016 10:58 AM on The Astros As Sellers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Did everybody at BP go to bed before the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58880">Dee Gordon</a></span> story broke last night?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

"Kimbrel’s on the mound as I write this on Monday night, back in Atlanta, still pumping high-90s heat at suspecting (yet mostly overmatched) hitters." Were you watching the night before in Houston?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/mark_anderson">Mark Anderson</a>, Jeff Eustoz, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/scooter_hotz">Scooter Hotz</a>, Jeff Paternostro, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/daniel_rathman">Daniel Rathman</a>

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 4

"Not all groundballs of similar speed are created equal, in terms of placement, in terms of trajectory, or in terms of spin, ... doesn’t it seem strange to strip away credit simply because the way he reached base wasn’t the way many of the others who hit similar balls reached base?" This is ridiculous logic. By this rationale two people who hit line drives one directly at someone that is caught and another three feet to his left that goes to LF should somehow be scored equally. The above poster has it exactly right "What we really need to do is stop confusing statistics that measure what "should" have happened, with what "did" happen."

Apr 11, 2016 10:14 AM on Kill the Error
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

The Schwarber injury was disheartening and likely was unaviodable given the circumstances of that specific play. But Maddon has been playing with fire by putting people in positions in which they have received inadequate experience and it was only a matter of time before something like this happened. Schwarber was a very unique talent in that he had the possibility (emphasize possibility)of becoming the greatest slugging catcher of all time. Could he have learned to be a better catcher? Certainly not by playing 15 games a year and being blocked from being the 2nd catcher by the corpse that is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Ross">David Ross</a></span> who was a token signed to pacify <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45548">Jon Lester</a></span>. And how would have Maddon explained himself if the injury happened one day earlier in Oakland when Scwarber played LF while Soler was at DH? Why was that necessary? And the night after the injury Maddon showed he learned absolutely nothing from the experience by playing 3 men out of position (Soler LF, Heyward CF, Bryant RF). Can every injury be prevented? No but you can reduce the probability by letting people play the optimum position if they are on the field (Scwarber DH Soler LF in one case / Bryant LF Soler RF in the other case). Putting 3 guys in unfamiliar positions and expecting them to not have some problem communicating with each other (and risk running into each other) is just taking an unnecessary gamble. So Schwarber's career as a catcher is done. Even if he is able to physically get behind the plate he will be so far behind the curve after having played 15 games there in the last two years. And he will just be a slowed down LF looking to be a DH in 5 years. What a waste. The only good thing is that at least Soler would get a chance to play lest he wither on the vine with 200 ABs this year as a platoon with Schwarber. Maybe Bryant can get hurt playing the OF so Tommy LaStella can get some playing time at 3B and Baez will have his opening.

Apr 11, 2016 10:03 AM on The Week In Pain
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

I posted it this year without comment so if you wanted to downgrade the posting you'd be simply be downgrading the facts.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

BP AL East Staff Picks 2005 - Boston (New York) 2006 - Boston (New York) 2007 - New York (Boston) 2008 - Boston (Tampa Bay) 2009 - Boston (New York) 2010 - Boston (Tampa Bay) 2011 - Boston (New York) 2012 - New York (New York) CORRECT 2013 - Tampa Bay (Boston) 2014 - Boston (Baltimore) 2015 - Boston (Toronto)

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Why not Hanley at 3B and Shaw at 1B if not yet to coddle another ego?

Apr 01, 2016 7:29 AM on Panda Endangered
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

This is where the defensive metrics really look silly. They push <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67964">Kevin Kiermaier</a></span> to 5.2 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> player but have Sal Perez at a 0.8 WARP player. And absolutely no MLB GM would trade Sal Perez for Kevin Kiermaier and would laugh at the suggestion that Kevin would even be mentioned in the same breath.

Mar 12, 2016 9:42 PM on Catching Down
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Wasn't it just a year ago the wizards in Oakland thought <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60009">Brett Lawrie</a></span> was a better option than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56185">Josh Donaldson</a></span>? If you thought Rick Hahn and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=92694">Kenny Williams</a></span> were going to tear anything down and rebuild you haven't been paying attention the last decade. Kenny only knows to keep doubling down on his bets.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Its not about playing time - its about developing the young players to the best of their ability. Getting the 200 ABs that Soler and Baez will get is just a waste. Don't pretend you get the same development as with 500 or 600 ABs. If Schwarber can at least approximate the defense of Posada the Cubs have a giant at the position. Lets at least see if that is possible. That absolutely has ZERO chance of happening if he takes two seasons off at the position. Simply criminal for that to occur to accommodate Ross. Wouldn't it be better to play Baez at 2B regularly and let Zobrist play all over like he has in the past? Probably but not at that salary. Joe asked Castro to 'suck it up' and accept a role change. Lets see if he does the same with Zobrist who I am pretty sure thinks in his own mind is coming here to play 2B.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

BINGO

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

The Cubs probably had the best prospect collection of position player talent in the past 20 years. Unfortunately Theo has done just about everything possible this winter to impede the development of the group. Castro you don't like? Fine - get something more than 5/6 starter for him. Zobrist blocks Baez who at one point in time was thought to be the best of the lot. He has no place on the field now. Schwarber should be getting at least a little time behind the plate and could easily serve as a backup C but Theo choose to carry Lester's caddy Ross who was terrible least year and should be in a retirement home. Getting Fowler puts Schwarbs and Soler in a platoon in LF. Soler made tremendous strides in his plate approach down the stretch last year and gets rewarded with a 200 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AB</span></a> role in the upcoming year. Bringing in Victorino makes the situation even worse. At least with all the OFs we will be spared the ridiculous sight of Bryant in CF and he'll stay at 3B. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70339">Albert Almora</a></span> (CF) can forget about ever seeing a taste of MLB this year delaying his development further. Ditto for CJ Edwards the best pitching prospect who will be blocked by the slide in the starter staff to accommodate <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=John+Lackey">John Lackey</a></span> signed coming off his best year in 10, two years removed from chicken and beer. Bottom line - the development of Schwarber, Soler, Baez, Almora, Edwards has been retarded no matter what the Cubs achieve this year by the signing of Zobrist, Heyward, Ross, Lackey. Overpaying for a non-power hitting, good defensive OF in Heyward looks eerily similar to that of Crawford in Boston. I'm sorry I'm very excited to watch the young Cub prospects develop but I've got zero interest in watching the old overpaid cronies of Theo.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Where are the team projection numbers?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Why are the Cubs fooling around with Baez in CF? For one it took an entire season for him to sort out injuries, personal issues, and a terrible batting approach and habits from 2014. The Cubs couldn't be patient enough to give Baez time to develop at 2B (by signing a 34 year old) but want him to quickly learn to play CF in two months? He should be focusing on continuing to tighten up his strike zone in winter ball without the distraction of learning a new position. Besides the Cubs also have <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70339">Albert Almora</a></span> in CF who will most likely be MLB ready in 2017. Soler made great strides in his approach at the plate in the second half which reflects a continued development. Instead of staying the course with their young players, the Cubs couldn't resist spending nearly $250 million to add a 34 year old and a player who is vastly overpaid for his power profile. And in doing so, they have blocked Baez and Solor long term. If the Cubs trade Baez and Solor now they are trading them at the low end of their value. If Baez (playing out of position) or Solor (with a 1 year window in RF) actually develop then they Cubs have grossly overpaid for Zobrist and Heyward. If the Cubs win the World Series next year then all will be forgotten like when CC lead the Yankees to a title. But lets be clear. The Cubs are no longer the lovable losers. This sets them up to be the clear favorites and with that comes the expectation 'yoke' the Yankees and Red Sox carry each year. Nothing lees than getting to the World Series will be acceptable and any shortfall will be heavily scrutinized to find a scapegoat. That's what comes with an ascension to the top.

Dec 12, 2015 8:05 AM on No Laughing Matter
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

The signing by the Cubs of Heyward from their bitter rival the Cardinals has an eerie parallel to the Yankees signing <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46027">Jacoby Ellsbury</a></span> from the Red Sox. Both profiled as non-power hitting OFs who other assets (speed, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>, defense) were thought to justify the high price tag. I'd argue that cost hasn't been justified in the case of Ellsbury and probably won't be in the case of Heyward. All this contract does is guarantee <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span> 300 million in 2018.

Dec 12, 2015 7:37 AM on No Laughing Matter
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

The chicken and beer boys (Lester and Lackey) took down a much better team on paper (Red Sox) so lets hope Joe keeps better track of the clubhouse than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=22091">Terry Francona</a></span>.

Dec 12, 2015 7:28 AM on No Laughing Matter
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

What the %$#$ are the A's doing? It was bad enough giving away Donaldson for Lawrie (and trying to come up with some metrics to justify it). How bad does <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56185">Josh Donaldson</a></span> for Zach Erwin and JB Wendelkne sound? Now they get rid of Lawrie to bring back some combination of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46262">Jed Lowrie</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50147">Danny Valencia</a></span> to play in their infield. This really is indefensible.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

As good as the Castro deal was for the Yankees the giveaway of Wilson was inexplicable. Was there any better use of $ 1 million in MLB last year than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Justin+Wilson">Justin Wilson</a></span>? I saw Cashman try to explain it on Yankees Hot Stove and he just stumbled over his words. I never knew that having orginazational filler at SP was as important as having one of the four pitchers (Wilson, Warren, Betances, Miller)that Girardi trusted at the end of the season. Especially after having traded one of the four (Warren).

Dec 10, 2015 4:08 AM on Giles From Nowhere
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Over his career Walker has been a much better defender at 2B. Cabrera played himself off SS in Cleveland long before Lindor got there when his defense tanked. He had to accept a one-year deal with <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TB</span></a> to rebuild his value. With <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59421">Nick Franklin</a></span> crashing and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58058">Tim Beckham</a></span> not ready Cabrera got way too much playing time. The Mets are likely to be disappointed if they think he is any kind of long-term answer.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Lets see. The Cardinals thought so little of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60626">Shelby Miller</a></span> they skipped him in the post season two years ago. They were dead set on getting rid of him to make room for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=John+Lackey">John Lackey</a></span> for God's sake. Now Atlanta is equally dead set on sending him packing after a season. The Cardinal and Brave organizations don't pass on too many pitchers and end up being wrong.

Dec 10, 2015 3:47 AM on The Shelby Shocker
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

If acquiring a 34-year old Zobrist sends both Castro (for a spot starter)and Baez packing then this is a terrible deal. I don't see why the Cubs could not have held onto Castro to play 2B until they could figure out whether Baez could play. Does the success this year for the Cubs this year preclude any more patience with their younger players that they have to jump at someone like Zobrist? Has the pendulum swung such that there really that much pressure to win now as opposed in 2-3 years? In 1 year Casto's value (given his performance .350 after returning at 2B) is likely to warrant a better return than Warren. In 1 year the Cubs were more likely to evaluate whether Baez' minor league performance represented a true improvement. At best we'll have Baez displacing Bryant to LF so Schwarber can play RF taking time from Soler in a semblance of musical chairs. Completely unnecessary. Lets see if they pay millions to Heyward to play CF for a year instead of waiting for Albert Amora.

Dec 10, 2015 3:43 AM on Cubs Implement Flextime
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

If half of the pitching prospects that came through Boston in the last 10 years had panned out they wouldn't need any more starters last winter or now.

Nov 21, 2015 6:36 AM on Straight Kimbrelin'
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

"This season Trout was a lead sinker on the Angels line during the crucial month of August which was instrumental in the heavily favored Angels losing out eventually to the Rangers and Astros. He hit .218 that month and 7 of his hits came in games the team lost 12-5 and 9-2." Couldn't have said it better myself. I guess winning games when you actually need to win them instead of padding statistics in truly meaningless contests is a point lost on the author.

Nov 21, 2015 6:25 AM on Overlooking Trout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -18

When the Angels needed him - Trout was MIA. After getting hurt the Angels went from 1 game out to 7 out while he batted about .200 for a month. How is that a valuable contribution? In meaningless September contests with no one watching he was a 1.000 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> player. Donaldson was a 1.000 OPS for the combined months of August and September when each and every game was played at the highest level of urgency. I'd argue that Donaldson wasn't just the MVP for Toronto and AL but for the entire sport of baseball in the sense of the revival performed for one of the moribund franchises for the past 20 years.

Nov 19, 2015 2:25 PM on Overlooking Trout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"In this case, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> gives Trout a seven-run edge on Donaldson with the leather, whereas DRS sees Donaldson as six runs better, and UZR has him ahead by nine runs. That’s hard to reconcile, and it’s especially hard to say which model we should most trust." Which is EXACTLY the problem with any of these fielding metrics.

Nov 19, 2015 10:41 AM on Overlooking Trout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -17

"More broadly, where <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> likes a player significantly better or worse than the other WAR models, it’s often because of some adjustment (like opponent quality and park factors) that Prospectus handles better than the others." How about an adjustment for performance in a game that actually meant something?

Nov 19, 2015 10:29 AM on Overlooking Trout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

sorry for the cutoff in the last sentence .... The declining rate for all umpires can be explained by a widening gold standard of the strike zone which has become more favorable to umpires who call a lot of strikes.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"Much has and will be made about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58831">Jason Castro</a></span>'s presentation behind the plate. But let's not forget to credit the game plan and execution on both ends of the battery. Keuchel and Castro discovered the wide plate early, and continued to milk it all night." The interesting thing is that the umpire <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=34097">Eric Cooper</a></span> had the lowest percentage of missed pitches among all umpires in 2014 according to the Fan Graphs database. for all umpires over the last 7 years that can be explained by a widening gold standard of the strike zone which has become more favorable to umpires who call a lot of strikes.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I was waiting for this article all year. Thanks for your honesty but until all your fellow BP writers come clean we have no explanation for the herd mentality of BP as a group. Any one pick can be bad but the near unanimity in some of the picks among the group is the the real problem. Are all BP writers using bad sourcing? Is there a pressure to conform to the 'best sabermetric pick'? Is there a historical bias for certain teams? To the last point, I'd point out that the BP consensus pick to win the AL East has been the Red Sox 8 times out of the last 11 years - ALL incorrect. No single mea culpa by a single writer can adequately explain that track record.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Has the ballpark been a handicap to the development of Oroiles SP similar to the trappings of Mile High?

Sep 29, 2015 10:41 AM on TINSTAABOPP
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Did you send a hardcopy of this to the Baltimore organization? Very well-researched article.

Sep 29, 2015 10:36 AM on TINSTAABOPP
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Yaeh but how many of the 104 picked Washington to win the World Series? And did they also pick Boston to win the AL East which BP always does and is always wrong?

Sep 28, 2015 9:41 PM on September 28, 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

All these guys have been garbage - blowing game after game - while Miller and Betances wait for a game that never happens. What Cashman should have given Girardi was one legitimate starter or some veterens on the cheap like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1476">Latroy Hawkins</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48157">Mark Lowe</a></span>. The starter would have kept Warren in the bullpen and Lowe or Hawkins would be better than any of these guys. The fact that Toronto beat Cashman on bottom feeders like Hawkins and Lowe is pathetic.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

So does this make <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ryan+Braun">Ryan Braun</a></span> more likely to be traded?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> either gets promoted or buried depending upon the point one is trying to make.

Sep 15, 2015 3:07 PM on Xander Bogaerts
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

With everything gaga in Wrigleyville, it is a forgotten mistake by Theo that he choose a caddy for Lester instead of a very capable lefty masher in Castillo.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

After watching the Nats blow a 7-1 lead with 2 out in the 7th inning tonight, I'll double down on my comments. Well at least Storen and Papelbon got in the game tonight. Hard to believe <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=24533">Ray Knight</a></span> was ever a manager.

Sep 08, 2015 7:28 PM on September 8, 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 4

"I'm unable find fault with our collective inability to see the Royals coming." The Royals 'coming' was last year. They were already here for this year. Maybe BP missed this year because they never adequately explained last year. From this years Prospectus ... "then for whatever reason they started to win". "In the Royals' case, on the other hand, we erred by underestimating the sustainability of their bullpen dominance, and we failed to foresee the remarkably strong performances they would get from some very unlikely places." The bullpen alone can't come close to closing the gap between BP projection and reality. As far as unexpected performance. I'll give you Moustakas but the loss of Gordon more than evened that ledger. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> has always downgraded an aging player so when any older player performs well (Volquez, Young, leading <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RBI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RBI</span></a> (gasp) guy Kendry Morales) its a convenient excuse. There's a ton of those players for every team. The most obvious reason for the Royals success - they were in a division in which three others teams (Tigers, Indians, White Sox) so grossly under-performed the TWINS are going to finish 2nd. This division, that was supposed to be the most difficult to win, proved to be a patsy.

Sep 08, 2015 11:00 AM on Royal Screwup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

There isn't enough space or words to describe how bad the Nationals have been, are , and will continue to be. The whole team has grossly underachieved from the players to the field staff to the GM to the broadcast crew, and according to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span>, even the fans. Bryce is a great player but has the personality of of toad and other teams have learned to just walk him. The one play I saw that capture their futility was the throw from CF to home which was kicked by Escobar as he and Zimmerman were doing a crossing pattern in front of the mound for the cut-off - as the catcher Ramos threw up his hands in disgust obviously not calling for a cut. As for the pathetic manager how many games is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46193">Casey Janssen</a></span> going to blow in which Storen or Papelbon don't enter?

Sep 08, 2015 10:28 AM on September 8, 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Warren got a real raw deal. Not only was he sent to the bullpen but his usage has been pretty much in low leverage situations. I don't get the fascination with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66570">Bryan Mitchell</a></span>. The last 4 years in the minors he had an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> above 4.00. And other than a cup of tea last year he has really showed nothing to suggest he deserves to start ahead of anyone.

Sep 03, 2015 7:50 AM on Ivan Nova
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

" In that light, we all ought to have been more open to a wider set of possibilities, ... " BINGO While any individual pick might be argued, the unanimity of thought is the greater egregious error. I could have picked 45 national baseball writers from across the country and there would have been no consensus among the 45 on ANYTHING. The more serious question for BP is how the thought process could be so identical among so many or whether individual writers feel a pressure to conform to some mantra.

Aug 31, 2015 9:20 AM on Don't Mess With Texas
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"In our preseason predictions piece, 45 of us tried to forecast the 2015 season." Hope this is the first in a series.

Aug 31, 2015 9:07 AM on Don't Mess With Texas
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"The Blue Jays come to the Bronx for a four-game set starting September 10th, and the Yankees head up to Toronto for three starting on September 21st." "Meanwhile, in what in my opinion is the most fascinating division race left,..." Huh? "The Nationals are playing the best team in baseball while the Mets are playing the worst. How unfortunate! " Unfortunate only from the perspective of someone desperately rooting for the Nats to recover from the dead. Those preseason impressions die hard.

Aug 31, 2015 9:04 AM on August 31, 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

What no pictures of the goo on the thumb of Fiers' glove?

Aug 25, 2015 8:01 AM on August 24, 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Utley getting any time from <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36865">Kiki Hernandez</a></span> is as misguided as BP's assessment of the 23 year old from the Prospectus this year - "to run it down: no speed on the basepaths, no power, average-ish defense and mediocre contact ability. He's the $3 stocking stuffer at eye-level near the hardware store."

Aug 21, 2015 12:40 PM on Utley Confidential
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Obviously, augmenting Russell's offensive numbers isn't Joe Maddon's job." Russell should bat no higher than 8th or 9th based on his ability right now. If that is the case, then the observation "Otherwise the question is whether Russell is better off hitting ninth or eighth (with the pitcher ninth). Eighth wouldn't be much better in terms of facing the SP for the 3rd or 4th time and gives up the advantages that Maddon sees." is right on.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

What about Marcel Ozuna? I couldn't find any mention of his demotion (to delay arb) or his recent recall (including his comments about the minors being hell). A higher profile player (and perhaps bigger disappointment)than nearly everyone mentioned here.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

His persistence in overcoming numerous medical conditions to make it back on a MLB field should be an inspiration to all.

Aug 20, 2015 8:35 AM on Franklin Gutierrez
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

My Lord Sano swinging a bat is positively scary. Looks a little like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18187">Bo Jackson</a></span>.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

No need to limit the mea culpa's to the Red Sox. Just to remind everyone here are the BP picks this year to win the division Red Sox (34 of 45 writers) Tigers (18)or Indians (22) Mariners (24) Nationals (45) Cardinals (33) Dodgers (45) I think they speak for themselves.

Aug 19, 2015 7:28 AM on The Shake-Up in Boston
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

"Ben Cherington was the architect of a <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=BOS" target="blank">Boston Red Sox</a></span> team that won the World Series 665 days ago." I'd argue the <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=LAN" target="blank">Los Angeles Dodgers</a></span> had more to do with it. The analysis has gone from 'how can the Red Sox finish last 3 of 4 years?' to 'how did they win that World Series?' Any chance BP brings back the series 'What went wrong?' when they analyzed each team as they were eliminated from playoff possibilities? A lot of 'explainin' to do' Lucy on the Red Sox and Nationals from the BP staff this year.

Aug 19, 2015 7:09 AM on The Shake-Up in Boston
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

How's that Papelbon thing working in Washington? Hard to get save opportunities when you lose every game for a week.

Aug 18, 2015 7:52 AM on Week 21
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Why would you ever want to put this guy in the pen? If I were the Yankees I'd be glad I kept him instead of getting Price for two months or Hamels for 2 years.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Nathan was selected to the All-Star team in 2012 and 2013 - the two years before he came to the Tigers. In 2012 he had a 2.80 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> and 37 saves and in 2013 he had a 1.39 ERA and 43 saves and was probably the best closer in baseball. All of that accomplished pitching in the friendly confines of Texas. The Tigers went out and got what probably was the best closer in baseball at the time and certainly the best available free agent closer. In 2014 Soria had a 3.25 ERA (2.09 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FIP</span></a>) .99 whip and was acquired by Detroit after Nathan failed in Detroit. After Nathan failed the Tigers went out and got the best they could on the market in mid-season. After being burned by the big contract to Nathan they went with a cheaper option. Once again to say they didn't try to address the problem isn't correct. You can argue about the merits of a closer but to say that the Tigers did nothing to address the issue or that Nathan or Soria were washed up at the time they were acquired is simply not correct.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Dombrowski was the anti-Billy Beane. While BP fell over itself in its love of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18911">Billy Beane</a></span>'s frugal approach as if wins per $ where the ultimate statistic, Dombrowski chose a different path to rebuild a moribund franchise. While neither team won the World Series there can be no argument that his rebuild of the Tiger brand helped restore a place of endearment in the hearts of the Detroit fans and was responsible for the rebirth of a downtown of which Oakland can only dream.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

For years this might have been true, but lately Nathan and Soria were All-Star closers than failed in the black hole of Tiger relief.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Phillips is hardly <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66213">Zack Wheeler</a></span>. Whether the rest of the prospcets (#10 ,12,21 in Hous org) make up for it remains to be seen. I would have thought <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Carlos+Gomez">Carlos Gomez</a></span> should have gotten someone comparable to one of the Met top 4 pitchers and this doesn't do it.

Aug 01, 2015 11:11 AM on Houston is Hip to Gomez
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This was a shocking low return (# 13 prospect acc to BA)given that there were at least 5 teams competing for his services. The Tigers could have at least asked for Conforto.

Aug 01, 2015 11:05 AM on Yo Yo Yo Your Boat
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

The Yankees acquisition of Ackley is so wrong on so many levels. He makes even <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37650">Garrett Jones</a></span> look good. And putting him on the roster was a bad idea with the DH role locked up (even without Arod). Now with Valencia DFA'd the Yankees could have picked him up in trade for only slightly more than they gave for Ackley.

Aug 01, 2015 11:01 AM on ACK! Going to New York!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Well at least the Philles got something compared to the bag of balls these other teams have been getting for their giveaways.

Jul 30, 2015 6:53 AM on Rangers Go HAMels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Ruben should be gone. He'd have done better to get a bag of balls. With so many teams needing a reliever this is no haul at all.

Jul 29, 2015 4:29 PM on Papel-Gone
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Did anyone see Victorino's goodbye speech in Boston? There IS crying in baseball.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Will this push the Yankees back into the Hamels pursuit?

Jul 28, 2015 6:51 AM on Tulo, Eh?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Cueto was the most impactful, reliant piece on the market for a team in the hunt. The reward for this was a #2 prospect from the #13 best farm system? Not exactly <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70633">Addison Russell</a></span>.

Jul 27, 2015 11:27 AM on The Dayton Hammer
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Your love for Nottingham not withstanding, this sets the bar pretty low for any pitcher not named Price or Hammels.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Commenters on previous articles on second-half <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> player projections noticed that the 2nd half projection was, for the most part, an extension of the first half prediction. Almost as if the first half did little to reset the predictive power of PECOTA for players. Is that what we are seeing here with the team predictions? If the entire AL East would play at .500 for the rest of the year that's pretty much the standings you'd get. The lead the Yankees have now on all of the other teams are what the final margin would be given the above prediction.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

No

Jul 20, 2015 5:44 PM on Stump the Schwarb
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

As bad as this miss is on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span>, nothing will ever compare to the miss on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57712">Matt Wieters</a></span>.

Jul 15, 2015 4:00 PM on Bryce Harper Goes Boom
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Did I miss the transaction analysis of Marcel Ozuna being sent to the minors?

Jul 13, 2015 5:11 PM on Feliz
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

BP better hope for some 2nd half regression because it picked all of the division leaders (Yankees, Royals, and Astros) to finish fourth in their division. To miss on all three of these teams requires 3 different set of excuses. 1) The Yankees are healthier than we though they'd be (along with the corollary we were wrong on the Red sox again like we always are) 2) The Royals really weren't the fluke our metrics missed on last year 3) Nothing about our prospect scouting could have foreseen the emergence of the Astros young players. Young, old, metrics, scouting ... could BP have been more wrong through the first half this year? They better hope for some regression.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Dipoto's moment of resignation probably came when <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45449">Brian McCann</a></span> hit a bullet line drive up the middle that glanced off the pitcher's glove to the SS in a normal position that was turned into a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DP</span></a>. Nearly every team has played McCann with the shift this year and to see Scioscia's stubbornness rewarded by a fluke was the last straw.

Jul 02, 2015 12:56 PM on They're No Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Remember that Sandberg quit on the Cubs also. From Cub history at mlb.com <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18104">Ryne Sandberg</a></span> quit baseball while still at his peak; he returned to the game after a year and a half like he had never missed an inning. On June 13, 1994, Sandberg announced he was retiring because "I am certainly not the type of person who can ask the Cubs organization and the <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHN" target="blank">Chicago Cubs</a></span> fans to pay my salary when I am not happy with my mental approach and my performance." "Ryno" missed the 1994 strike and sat out the abbreviated 1995 season as well. When he went to Wrigley Field to see the knock-down, drag-out final series of the year between the Cubs and the <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=HOU" target="blank">Houston Astros</a></span>, he knew his place was still on the field, not in the stands. By spring training 1996, Sandberg had signed on again with the Cubs and was back to business as usual.

Jun 30, 2015 10:23 AM on The Sandberg Goeth
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

Just to remind everyone, team chemistry didn't always get such consideration as in this article here at BP. From BP 5/3/2004 article by <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/joe_sheehan">Joe Sheehan</a> entitled 'Chemistry Crock' http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2830 "Second error first: I'll buy a chemistry argument when someone can tell me in March which teams will have good chemistry and which ones will have bad, the same way performance analysts make predictions about pitching, hitting and defense ... Chemistry arguments are an easy crutch for people who don't want to do, or can't do, real analysis. They're virtually impossible to disprove, and they're a reflection of the desire to ascribe good character traits to successful people after the fact. " <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/ben_lindbergh">Ben Lindbergh</a> wrote an article 'Overthinking it' on 1 /10/ 2014 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22550 reconsidering the position and Russell Carlton has written 4-5 articles on the subject since. This is a subject just like clutch hitting which most sabermaticians would argue simply can't be proven mathematically. The same silly arguments were made in the early 2000's about PED use. Just because something is too difficult to quantify doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Forward on Russell !

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I wonder how this sits with Gee after they sent him down ostensibly after switching back from a six man rotation to the five man rotation. I guess they just didn't want him as the 6th man.

Jun 26, 2015 1:56 AM on Steven Matz
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

That's a total of $51.422 million for .242/.313/.365/.678.

Jun 18, 2015 9:49 AM on Aimless in the Outfield
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Never deserved the top prospect ranking in either of the last 2 years

Jun 15, 2015 3:28 PM on Byron Buxton
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"the best prospect in baseball, Sir <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631">Byron Buxton</a></span>?" Looked totally overmatched on the breaking stuff today swinging at a pitch two feet outside. Will never see a fastball if that tape gets around.

Jun 14, 2015 3:26 PM on Byron Buxton
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"the Red Sox might have to eat what's remaining on his $5 million salary in order to free up a roster spot. That's the cost of doing business, however, and the plausible reward is worth the risk." The cost of doing business? Yeah, bad business. Doesn't this make the 9th OF they have under contract? Whoever would have thought that the Red Sox would have to ADD an OF going into this spring training. Sounds like a move of desperation.

Jun 05, 2015 3:06 PM on Halt and Catch Frieri
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Theo needs to justify his genius in acquiring <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70633">Addison Russell</a></span> by sending Castro out of town. Does it make sense for the Bulls to send Tom Thibodeou packing so the brilliant front office can bring in Fred Hoiberg? Both are good as done and both equally misguided but we aren't the ones calling the shots are we?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I read one person suggest Loria did this to get Stanton to opt out of his contract to save him money.

May 18, 2015 4:14 PM on Marlins Do Odd Thing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 6

Loria is the Isaiah Thomas of MLB. How long can MLB tolerate this guy? Somehow he benefited from a financial catastrophe in Montreal, was subsidized by MLB to take over the Marlins so <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=John+Henry">John Henry</a></span> could buy the Red Sox, and then fleeced the city of Miami into buying him a stadium. He is running his own personal playpen that has been continuously financed on the back of others. His only genius is in getting others to cough up the dough.

May 18, 2015 12:05 PM on Marlins Do Odd Thing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I love that you are trying to quantify what many are simply taking for granted. It was those efforts that formed the basis of sabermetrics and lead us to really reconsider many of the baseball myths. Keep up the analysis of macro trends. I love it.

May 13, 2015 9:31 AM on Are You Over 18?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"Yesterday, Matt Trueblood wrote about the very real concerns about Boston's offense to date. Today Matt Kory looks at another area in which the Red Sox have falled this year: fielding the ball." This isn't the first time the Red Sox have fallen short of BP expectations. In the last 11 years, BP has picked the Red Sox to win the AL East 8 times and the Red Sox are well on their way to making it an incorrect prediction 8 times in a row. What leads to such an incorrect consensus prediction - unreasonable expectations, flawed interpretation of the metrics or is it the metrics themselves? BP's record in no matter is as wrong as it is when it comes to evaluating the Red Sox chances. Why is that?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

" How real has Harper’s performance been this season?" About as real as <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Miguel+Cabrera">Miguel Cabrera</a></span>'s efforts but those are never believed here at BP.

May 11, 2015 9:43 PM on Bryce Harder!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

This should be mandatory reading for about 200 lefties in MLB.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"Want to know how you beat an unfavorable <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> projection? A strong bullpen. Recent examples include the Royals of 2013 and 2014, the Orioles of 2012 and, so far, the Yankees of 2015. The numbers <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49775">Dellin Betances</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a></span> have put up so far are simply silly." I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that BP has been telling us for years that anyone can do the closing job." Any chance that is being reconsidered after the Royals last year.

May 04, 2015 2:25 PM on Jake!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

"Our new pitching metric is less than a week old and it accurately reflects the Red Sox starting rotation DRA as "three monkey frowny face emojis"" We don't need any new pitching metric to tell us how bad Red Sox pitching has been and how good that of the Astros has been ... and how wrong BP has been regarding both teams in their preseason analysis.

May 04, 2015 2:20 PM on Monday, May 4
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

I love the articles at BP that investigate historical norms. Continue the great work on these subjects Matt.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Is the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> model developed to be a best-fit model of the entire data set or a best-predictive model using cross-validation using some subdivision(s) of the data set? What data (years) were used for the regression and, if cross validation was done, how was the data divided into subsets for cross validation? A best fitting regression model is notorious for having limited predictive ability for new data sets outside those used to develop the model.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Some people who play daily fantasy contests, such as on DraftKings, have come to me and lamented the randomness or luck involved in such leagues." Which is why they should be considered gambling.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I tried downloading the "**Full exports for each group of players are available for download here." but got a message saying the file has been moved.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Excellent article that has an endless array of interesting tangents.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting that Desmond and Castro have made just about the same number of errors over the last 3 years but we get a 5-point defense of Desmond while Castro is headed out-of-town to accommodate the wunderkind <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70633">Addison Russell</a></span>.

Apr 24, 2015 10:35 PM on No D In Desmond?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks for drawing attention to the stupidity of playing Bryant in CF.He actually played it for the first time the night before. All with Denorfia, who has actually played CF in the past. manning LF in the meantime. Supposedly Bryant told Maddon that he preferred CF to LF / RF because of less curvature of the ball off the bat. Hey, if the comfort of Bryant in the end-all and be-all to the decision-making, put him at 3B. Dah.

Apr 24, 2015 7:48 AM on Shenanigans!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Will Defense Undo the Cubs?" It will if they keep playing Bryant in CF. Lets see .... Bryant isn't athletic enough to stay at 3B but he can play CF? Supposedly Bryant is playing at CF because he finds it easier to play because of the curvature of balls off the bat. If his comfort is the end-all and be-all replacement to all baseball logic shouldn't they just keep him at 3B? Lets hope Byrant and Soler don't do a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1358">Carlos Beltran</a></span> - <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1142">Mike Cameron</a></span> imitation.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

How many games has Bryant played in the OF in either college or the minor leagues?

Apr 17, 2015 10:44 AM on Kris Bryant
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Really. Here is the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> projection for 2015 Viciedo 513 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> .257/.302/.421 Quentin 250 PA .239/.329/.433 Those two players look pretty similar to me.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"I see only one promising fit, in Toronto, where Quentin could take <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">Justin Smoak</a></span>’s place as a bench bat, occasional first baseman and DH." Didn't Toronto just take a pass on a very similar, even younger player in <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55376">Dayan Viciedo</a></span> to go with Smoak?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Who were the Red Sox bidding against here? How did this negotiation go? Red Sox : We'll offer 4 years at 18 million Porcello : We want 4 years at $23 million Both : Lets settle at $20 + million Does anyone think Porcello would have turned down 4 years at $16, $ 18, $20 mil that the Red Sox had to go over $ 20 mil?

Apr 09, 2015 12:35 PM on Buy High 'Cello
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"I started writing this prediction before Hatcher locked down the Opening Day W for the Boys in Blue on Monday, and now I get to update the tone to be all “I told you so!” style." You may have congratulated your self too soon. Hatcher's line from last night Hatcher 0 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 0 so, 0hr

Apr 08, 2015 4:12 PM on Five Bold Predictions
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

This would only be a good idea only if BP sends all of its writers with a Boston bias who picked Boston incorrectly seven times in the last 10 years to win the AL East to BP Boston.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The Red Sox just committed $20 mil + to Porcello for 4 years. That makes Tulo look like a bargain.

Apr 07, 2015 12:05 PM on Don't Trade Tulo
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I subscribe because I enjoy nearly every BP article that takes a historical look at the game such as 1)Counts are crushing offense 2)How the Twins discovered <span class="bookdef"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0393324818/baseballpro07-20/ref=nosim/" target="blank">Moneyball</a></span> 10 years late 3)Another look at Prospect Values 4)Review of umpire strike zones I find their team tracker to be the best around. On the other hand I think BP has really got to ask themselves if they have a culture of Group Think given how nearly unanimous they are in some of their positions (and in the case of picking the AL East, just as unanimous in being wrong). All I did was post the facts. I'm sorry if those facts are disturbing. I guess I should have avoided the word abysmal but I'm not the only one questioning how you can have 45 people picking the same outcome. There are a number of positions on other topics (PEDs, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>, HOF, cheapness vs success) with which I have stated my disagreement. Just as anyone else here is free to do so. I don't think someone who is trolling takes the time to research BP's picks for the last 10 years. I guarantee you I put more thought into my post than your personal attack that concluded with an obscenity.

Apr 04, 2015 10:48 PM on Staff Picks for 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -11

BP's track record in predicting the AL East has been abysmal in the last 10 years. Here are the staff predictions in that time with the actual winner in parenthesis. 2005 - Boston (New York) 2006 - Boston (New York) 2007 - New York (Boston) 2008 - Boston (Tampa Bay) 2009 - Boston (New York) 2010 - Boston (Tampa Bay) 2011 - Boston (New York) 2012 - New York (New York) CORRECT 2013 - Tampa Bay (Boston) 2014 - Boston (Baltimore) BP correctly predicted the AL East winner in only one of the past 10 years. BP picked Boston to win the division 7 of those years and was wrong all 7 times. Given the fact the the staff at BP has had nearly a complete turnover in that time it is hard to explain the group think that persists. I'm pretty sure you could get 45 baseball writers and they wouldn't agree on anything in consensus except here at BP.

Apr 04, 2015 7:05 AM on Staff Picks for 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

signed Buck Showalter

Apr 03, 2015 7:25 AM on Staff Picks for 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Its got to be true. Forty-five BP writers just can't all be wrong.

Apr 03, 2015 7:19 AM on Staff Picks for 2015
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Is there? Who's playing CF the first game? Bradley or Castillio? No doubt Bradley is the better CF'er but if they really think Castillo's future is in CF then shouldn't he get the time there? Are the Red Sox already to conceded that Betts is the CF of the future. Anf if Catillo plays CF in the minors isn't that a concession that Bradley's future with the organization is done? Or at best that of a 5th OFer? Quite a comedown for the wunderkind of last spring.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

If there is one thing we've learned about Boston is that their prospects are consistently overrated. Bradley and Bogaerts were about as can't miss as possible. Were the one year performances of Holt and Betts any better than Middlebrooks once upon a time? If Cecchini was any good, would they really have signed Sandoval? Frankly most of their off-season moves (Ramirez and Castillo) would seem to belie any confidence in their younger players (Bogaerts and Bradley). And with good reason. If Bogaerts continues to crap out I wouldn't be surprised to see Hanley pick up his SS glove (gasp). And the list of pitching busts for Boston is way too long to include here. Their only hope is to find some idiot to take these broken goods for some return. This time the Dodgers won't be listening.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

"This year, things are a bit different. ... Options abound." "that leaves four roster spots for the likes of Craig, Nava, Betts, Cecchini, Bradley, Victorino, and Castillo." There's not enough room for all the options even including the AAA level. Someone is going bye-bye. All the options won't be there. Its that simple.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Given the increased importance of the pitcher on GBs, LDs, and FBs does this say anything on about <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> and the assumption that all pitchers should regress to the mean of .300?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Can you answer the question of whether the Cubs can reset the clock on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70387">Javier Baez</a></span> for a year if they send him down for 60 days to make up for the 60 he was up last year? If so it seems they can leave Baez down in the minors for the 60 + 13 days this year they could essentially reset him to the same service time as Bryant as of June 15. Keeping Baez down may do even more harm to the Cubs than Bryant.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

Yeah, like whether <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">Justin Smoak</a></span> or Dayan Viceido will DH for the Blue Jays. Now that is an exciting choice with which a SAC BUNT cannot compete.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -15

A few days ago I noted that over the last 5 years the Yankees averaged 91 wins and the Giants averaged 87 wins and most of the articles here at BP worshipped <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SF" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SF'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SF</span></a>'s approach and killed the Yankees. Glad to see just another confirmation of that view here at BP. I guess if you think the production of the group (McCann, Beltran, Tex, Arod, Sabathia, Nova) would be equivalent this year to their production last year, I might see how one could take an 84 win team to an 80 win team. The analysis for most other teams would note that players with career worst years or players with zero contribution due to injury would be due for some regression and an improved performance and contribution to a team's bottom line. But not here. The assumption here at BP is that those players just didn't simply have a bad year but are incapable of playing any better. ALL OF THEM. I think that's very narrow minded. Even if half of them are as lousy as last year, an improvement in the other half would indicate an improvement in the team, to say, 88 wins. That total in a division that isn't quite what it was two years ago is at least competitive. The only way the Yankees have any kind of success is that the players above come back to something at least halfway decent. Acquiring a bunch of bit players in case they don't come back so they win 82 wins instead of 80 is the REAL sunk cost. Acquiring Headley to play 3B instead of ARod at the cost of playing Drew at 2B instead of Prado is the real lunacy. Acquiring Garret Jones as insurance on Tex is a waste of money. Acquiring Evoldi in case Sabathia can't go might be OK but the Yankees aren't going to win anything without Sabathia. So spending money on about 6 plan B's before the year starts really has NO effect on whether the Yankees make the playoffs or not. Ultimately they will finish where they will based on the recovery of the names above. Will Tex, MaCann, and Beltran turn the page to years gone by? NO. Will they be better than last year as a whole? YES. Rather than seeing their performance, along with that of the pitchers last year as a floor, BP views it as the norm to be repeated. If any other team had 6 players that performed in their 10th percentile you wouldn't be projecting that same level of performance this year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Matt, congrats on another great article. BP at its best.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Truth be told, these Giant teams weren't very good. They played very well in the playoffs but they weren't very good. Over the last 5 years the Giants won an average of 87 games per year while the Yankees won 91 games per year. The Giants are praised while the Yankees are ridiculed here at BP. "Luck has a big factor in it. Let's consider the Giants overall record during that period. To me, they won *despite* their approach, not because of it, as you imply." Fully agree.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Another great article this week from BP to go along with the one on the value of prospects seen earlier. This is the type of analysis that BP is at their best. I've often thought that 'taking the first pitch' at amateur levels was entirely supported given the lack of control by younger pitchers. This article shows that while that has nearly always been the case for MLB, pitchers have adapted to pounding the zone nearly eliminating the advantage of doing so. The article seems to support that 'taking the first pitch' is best for batters who are most comfortable batting with two strikes, ie, those that have high contact rates.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Yeah, it sucked that Oakland got knocked out because of that game, but that’s life. I wouldn’t change it for the world ... " Billy Beane

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Fantastic article. These articles on prospect and draft position value represent some of the best work at BP. Pretty sobering for Cub fans hoping all of the prospects work out.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I'd bet a similar study of umpire strike zones might find a difference between them of more than an inch. Perhaps that study would put the framing ability of a catcher in a proper context.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

This is what is left of PECOTA projections when it doesn't know if the best comp for AROD is a 39 year old Barry Bonds or a 39 year old version of Derek Jeter. PEDs make PECOTA projections a House of Cards. So BP comes with their best sense of humor.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Save the comedy for Late Night please. The funniest thing was the comment about Stephen Drew.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Are these the rankings that will be in the Prospectus?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I wish the Yankees had signed Bonifacio at $ 4mil instead of Stephen Drew at $ 5mil. Derek Jeter had a better chance to return to form than Drew. Actually they should have kept Prado at 2B, told Arod to get his %^$ to 3B and earn his money and forgot Headley. Instead they keep making one bad decision after another. Now they have the carcass of Drew at 2B (of which they had a front row seat to see last year), another weak bat at SS, need two platoon partners for both (and one of these will be Brendan Ryan?), have two 1Bs, and guaranteed that ARODs $25 mil bat will block a host of other possible DH candidates. Good luck managing that bench when looking for a PH in the late innings. Good luck working with that bench

Jan 08, 2015 7:17 PM on Yankees Fancy Drew
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"The new set of steroid-using candidates, most especially Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, have driven a wedge between the voters that is clearly visible in their voting preferences. It has exacerbated these issues by stratifying the electorate, causing some writers to spend votes on two or more steroid users, while others avoid them entirely. The result has been a sort of electoral constipation, in which the divide between PED voters and non-PED voters increases the backlog, further enlarging the pool of possible candidates, thus dividing the support more evenly between a larger and larger number of players." ------------------------------------------------------------ Seems a lot like I wrote just a few days earlier.... "The reason we have a backlog now is that a host of PED users have been passed over by a majority of the voters that others still cling to. Without consideration of PEDs, those players would ALREADY be in the Hall (given the few admissions in the past 5 years) and 10 votes would be more than enough to consider the other candidates this year (just like it has been for the entire past history of the Hall). It seems the frustration by those who continue to campaign for PED users (and inability to accept the views of the majority of the current voters) has lead them to suggest a different set of rules that would allow them to bang their drum." ---------------------------------------------------------- PEDs have damaged the voting process. The question is who should bear the penalty for damaging the process? Those that took the PEDS, those doing to voting, or those that played cleanly and will soon fall off the ballot (Mattingly, Trammel, McGriff)? If you are going to blame someone start with the person(s) who created the problem.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

The apologist's Bible which I posted many years ago .... 1. Steroids have no effect upon performance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares? Some of the postings cover many of these issues. I guess Russell has finally worked though all of the other arguments to reach "I don't care" As least he is one BP writer who has made some progress in his own admissions.

Jan 03, 2015 9:18 AM on The 2015 Results
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Just heard an interesting statistic on MLB network. Last year a full 10 names were submitted on the ballot for 50% of the voters. The previous high in any year was 23%. So for the previous 75 years of baseball, the imposed limits were perfectly adequate (and even acceptable for 50% of the voters last year). The reason we have a backlog now is that a host of PED users have been passed over by a majority of the voters that others still cling to. Without consideration of PEDs, those players would ALREADY be in the Hall (given the few admissions in the past 5 years) and 10 votes would be more than enough to consider the other candidates this year (just like it has been for the entire past history of the Hall). It seems the frustration by those who continue to campaign for PED users (and inability to accept the views of the majority of the current voters) has lead them to suggest a different set of rules that would allow them to bang their drum.

Jan 03, 2015 9:12 AM on The 2015 Results
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

"I'm always surprised that the sabr community is unconcerned about PEDs ... Seems the sabr community doesn't care about cheating and more importantly doesn't care much for the purity of the data." Good observation JohnnyB. I've always thought that the reason the sabr community, especially here at BP, doesn't want to include PEDs in the discussion is that they render PECOTA a house of cards. The comps are essentially worthless (the wrecked data sets for 20 years you mention) and without PECOTA much of the analysis here is compromised at best, corrupted at worst. Seems pretty logical and obvious but you'll only get shouted down as a dissenting opinion here.

Jan 02, 2015 12:26 AM on The 2015 Results
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -24

"Interesting to hear not one peep about PEDs in this entire discussion." "but I find it odd that there seems to be NOBODY at BP who considers this issue as relevant while a large proportion of baseball fans of good will (including myself, to be honest) do consider it relevant." Welcome to the arrogancy that is Baseball Prospectus. This entire self-flagellation over Clemens and Bonds is only relevant to those who still continue to ignore PEDs. For those willing to write-off the cheaters, a 10-man ballot is more than enough. You are quick to pick up on the degree of group-think reflected in these numbers which are such a distortion from the reality which we will see from a wide and diverse voting group next week. Look for the article here which will ridicule the consensus which will no doubt differ from the enlightened intelligentsia of Baseball Prospectus.

Dec 31, 2014 5:07 PM on The 2015 Results
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Lets hope everyone follows your suggestions and both Clemens and Bonds can get below the 5% so you don't have to worry about them at all going forward.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

BP coming around ? "even the staunchest numbers-lover, have come around to believe that these types of intangibles have value." What's next here? An acknowledgement that clutch hitting exists?

Dec 27, 2014 11:09 AM on Catching On to the Cubs
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

If the Yankees were so dead set on playing Refsnyder at 2B why didn't they keep Prado at 3B instead of sinking $36 mil into 3B for Headley and Arod. The flexibility of Prado was much more valuable than the glove of Headley, especially on the Yankees. With the DH all but locked up by Arod and 5 other candidates, Garrett Jones is a PH at best which really isn't needed in the AL. At least Ichiro was a defensive replacement. As far as Eovaldi, some guy who can't even crack Miami's rotation is going to be the savior for New York. Not. The bottom line for the Yankees is that none of these moves will make the Yankees better in 2015. That will be entirely determined by the bats of Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann, and Arod and the health of Sabathia, Tanaka, Pineda, and Nova. Coming up with a better plan B so they win 88 games instead of 84 really is of no interest.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

From MLB.com ..... "Kemp will play right field with Myers initially slotted for center and Upton in left." which reflects the current depth chart at MLB.

Dec 21, 2014 10:40 PM on Padres Wish Upton a Star
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

As for Craig ... "whichever team acquires him will be on the hook for $5.5 million in 2015, then $9 million in 2016, then $11 million in 2017" the Red Sox will end up sending money to cover part of this

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Any comment on which of the three (Kemp, Myers, or Upton) should play CF? It sounds as Myers will get the first chance.

Dec 19, 2014 10:07 PM on Padres Wish Upton a Star
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

"The biggest concern with Headley might be his health.....The Yankees have a better idea about Headley's health than anyone on the outside..." If the Yankees know more about Headley's health than AROD's that just their lack of due diligence.

Dec 15, 2014 6:38 PM on The Headley Weapon
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

"The Yankees, with their alternatives limited to Alex Rodriguez or Martin Prado at third and a rookie at second, always seemed like the favorites to retain Headley. And why not? " Maybe because they are paying AROD and Prado $36 million already and have about 5 DH candidates. Is it really too much to ask AROD to play 3B for his $25 million? Just how bad can he be compared to what they had manning the position last year? This just gives him another excuse.

Dec 15, 2014 6:35 PM on The Headley Weapon
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

"Whether you cared about his previous PED incident or not, whether you believe he is currently clean or not, the fact is, when he’s been on the field of late, he’s been quite productive." Does this statement represent progress in that BP has finally gotten past the 'PEDS have no effect'? If you can't connect the dots with Melky ....

Dec 15, 2014 9:56 AM on Melky Laughs Last
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Excellent article that is very educational on an under-reported subject. One of the best articles of the year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The 'ghost ' for the Yankees here wasn't Derek Jeter but the impending one if they sent out Stephen Drew to man the position next year.

Dec 06, 2014 6:43 AM on Replacing a Legend
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

that's know the difference

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Jose Mesa .... yikes. Thats like saying Lee Smith deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Cleveland and Chicago fans now the difference.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Did Billy Beane run Josh Donaldson out of town after a disagreement?

Dec 04, 2014 10:05 PM on The Mariners Get Happy
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Wrong. That's why the Red Sox signed him. Not the Yankees. The Yankees had the benefit of watching him go .176/.255/.328/.583 with the Red Sox at the beginning of the year after a disasterous signing. He actually was worse (.150/.219/.271/.490) with the Yankees making Roberts effort look like Rogers Hornsby.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

What part of .162/.237/.299/.536 (Stephen Drew) was better than .237/.300/.360/.659 (Brian Roberts)? The Yankees should have learned their lesson and the thought that they may bring Drew back to play SS should be grounds for dismissal.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -17

You forgot another absolute truth - the Red Sox always overrate their prospects. I have to laugh at all the talk of sending some prospects for Cole Hamels. How good could they be when your two best ones (Bogaerts and Bradley) are such busts? These moves just confirm that the Red Sox finally have come to realize the truth about them. Are they hoping someone else is just plain stupid?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -13

Only the Oakland A's lovebirds have Addison Russell over Javier Baez (I'll defer to Baseball America on this one). BP is also second to none in dismissing Castro. So really no one should be surprised by any rankings here.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Huh? The reason the A's, Angels, and even the Mariners had success simultaneously was the chance to play the two worst teams (Rangers and Astros)in baseball 36 times in a year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Really ... Here's USA todays take the day after he was hired ....... Baker will formally be announced Monday at noon and has a three-year contract to manage the team through the 2010 season. The choice has already drawn criticism from some Reds fans. Almost as soon as Baker emerged as the leading candidate for the job last week, message board and sports talk show phone lines lit up with unhappy fans. Much of the criticism centers on how Baker handles pitchers. Critics say he ignores pitch counts and tends to leave pitchers in games too long. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/reds/2007-10-14-baker-reax2_N.htm

Oct 30, 2014 3:28 PM on Bum Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

That was an incredible, historic performance by Bumgarner that will live in World Series lore forever. Now as far as Mr. Bouchy - who everyone has going to the Hall of Fame now - just how many times can someone do something wrong and still turn out right? If Bumgarner could pitch this much in Game 7 why not pitch him in Games 4 & 7 (both appearances would have been on more rest than for this performance)? If Bumgarner is going to pitch 5 innings in game 7 why not just start him in game 7 (trading Hudson's two innings for the SF bullpen)? If any of your answer to the first two is that Bouchy didn't know Bumbarner could go 5 innings, then why was no one warming up in the bullpen (when presumably when you didn't know how long he could go)? I guess we found out the answer to how Dusty Baker would have been viewed if the Cubs won the World Series (Bartman deleted)and Prior and Wood would never be the same again. Dusty got crucified for running them into the ground to the point it jepordized his getting another job lest he destroy young pitchers. Winning trumps all. Bouchy is going to the Hall of Fame. Dusty not so much. Bouchy won 3 Worlde Series with Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner. Lets hope Bumgarner doesn't join Lincecum in lefty / righty mop-up roles or join Cain on the heap of disabled pitchers for the next two year cycle appearance for the Giants in the World Series.

Oct 30, 2014 10:05 AM on Bum Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

On what basis could Bochy's decision to leave Bumgarner in for 117 pitches during a blowout the other night be justified? Even if Bumgarner pitches well tonight, he could of done it longer if he was removed the other night.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

After a little checking ... yes. Brian Roberts admitted to using steroids in 2003. Jerry Hairston got a prescription for HGH in May 2004 and later was arrested. These two were the poster children for what steroids meant not to the Bonds, McGuires, and Sosas of the world but to the everyday 'Lesserman' just trying to make a big league roster or beat out his competition (who he may have guessed was also cheating).

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Didn't the competition between Brian Roberts and Jerry Hairston eventually lead to both being tainted in the steroid question?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Seems like Hughes astonishing improvement is worthy of an in-depth analysis from BP.

Sep 25, 2014 6:37 AM on September 25, 2014
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -15

What next? BP to acknowledge that PEDs actually help performance? Shocking.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

So how did the Red Sox do in trading Iglesias for Escobar and Hembree?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Why don't they just trade Nick Franklin if they have no confidence in him?

Jul 28, 2014 7:12 PM on Chris Taylor
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The plot is thickening in Chicago. As soon as it appears Alcantara has succeeded Barney, Baez takes over Alcantara's 2B job in the minor's. Most probably would have bet that Baez would go to 3B and Bryant would be sent to RF. That's a lot of people playing out of position. Seems the Cubs might be looking at an infield of Bryant, Castro, Baez, and Rizzo next year with Alcantara as a super sub. And then trading Castro for pitching and replacing him with Russell later. I'm sure the plan isn't etched in stone but the move of Baez to 2B last Friday was telling something.

Jul 23, 2014 8:17 AM on 14th Edition
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

"I have never seen ANY MLB hitter look more helpless at the plate over this long a stretch." If you've been watching Royals games as you say you have, you must leave the room every time Mike Moustakas comes up to bat.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

How Verlander has avoided the fate of the likes of Fernandez and Tanaka is beyond me. His day of reckoning is coming !

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Addison Russell had a much clearer path to the SS job in Oakland (Lowrie, Punto)on a team that will be better sooner than he does in Chicago (Castro, Baez, and indirectly Bryant). So the net effect for him can hardly be an up arrow. Down arrow all the way.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Did you forget about Almora and Soler along with Lake and the acquired McKinney in the OF? A little crowded for Bryant. Moving Bryant to RF and Baez to 3B degrades both of their values.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

How is this an up move for Russell? He's double blocked at SS. He's blocked at 3B. And Bogaerts was ranked far ahead of any of these guys and isn't exactly tearing it up. Remember Dempster was having an even better year when he went to Texas than either of these two and that didn't work out at all. This smacks of the desperation the Red Sox showed in chasing Peavy.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Another over-hyped Red Sox prospect? See Jackie Bradley last spring.

Jun 30, 2014 4:02 PM on Mookie Betts
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

“It's surprising he doesn't get more attention because he could close for about half the teams in baseball right now." Half? How about everyone except Chapman? He's having a year better than the one Mariano Rivera had as a setup man for John Wetland. The only reason to question his emotional makeup is that he hasn't failed yet.

Jun 26, 2014 6:56 PM on June 26, 2014
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Thank God the talent pipeline back to Boston and Chicago has been cut off at the head. Omar Minaya and AJ Hinch ? Are there two less deserving men to still have a job ?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"There’s nothing in Polanco’s game that suggest he won’t succeed, but immediate production is never guaranteed with youngsters." See Travis Snider. Pretty sure his bio at an even younger age would read better than Mr. Polanco's today.

Jun 10, 2014 5:04 PM on Gregory Polanco
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

You might argue that given the quality of the opposition it was one of his best starts .....

Jun 06, 2014 10:13 AM on Soaring Jays
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Whats with the subheadline ... "Tanaka gets by without his best stuff?" Other than Oakland working the count better (which they do better than just about anyone), Tanaka was his usual self. An early solo HR followed by a quality start with excellent command making a lot of people look foolish.

Jun 06, 2014 10:12 AM on Soaring Jays
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

I still hear announcers talking about managers using / keeping their challenges after the 6th inning (when all such decisions should be solely left up to the umpire). And I've seen managers go out to the field after the 6th inning, look-in to the dugout, and get the umpire to go to the review after getting the thumbs up from the dugout. All of this suggests there really is no real distinction about pre- and post 6th inning. I've NEVER seen a manager go out after the 6th and told to get back to the dugout.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

What kind of chance did Pastornicky get? 20 ABs over one week? And that after getting only 15 Abs all year. Last year he got all of 30 ABs at the MLB level. He hasn't had more than 350 combined ABs in any year at any level since 2011 at age 21. What kind of chance at development is that? His development has been blocked by sitting behind that lug Uggla for 2 years. Pastornicky is 11 months YOUNGER than La Stella. Nice play at 2B tonight by La Stella blowing the game.

May 29, 2014 8:22 PM on Tommy La Stella
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I have Jose Fernandez AND Martin Perez on my keeper Strato team so it was a double depression day. Oh by the way I also have Strasburg and traded Chapman before being hit. Thank God for Obamacare.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

get there first ... sorry

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I can't count the number of times when discussing this subject someone says if a headfirst slide was faster than why don't sprinters do it ? (ignoring the fact that electronic timing methods measure the position of the torso). But when a NFL running back is running to a pylon he always dives to get their first on a close play. Nobody calls them stupid.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I'll rest my case after watching Tanaka tonight. With a 4-0 lead, he gives up a HR to Ortiz on a 3-1 fastball (after striking him out on a splitter), another HR to Napoli on a fastball (after he made him look foolish in first AB), sends a first pitch fastball to Gomes, gives up a wallball 2B to Pierzynski on a fastball (after making him look bad first time around on off-speed), and then starts the next batter with a fastball. I would pray to God that he wouldn't use that sequence if the game wasn't 4-0. No one with his assortment of pitches should have thrown those many fastballs.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

In contrast, any improvements to use the Pitch / FX data for the common man is a very welcome development!

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

MLB should stick with actual measurable statistics at their site instead of including ANY mathematical model results. What next - Fantasy baseball projections? This Buds for you.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I think any improvement in Tanaka's performance will come in the area of pitch selection instead of any mechanics. I can't imagine why anyone would contemplate messing with his mechanics at this stage. In spring training he gave up a HR on a 0-2 fastball to some Mendoza man. The pitch to Cabrera was definitely a mistake of location. The other HR to Schoop looked like a lay-it-in-there fastball to a #9 hitter. Unlike Matsusaka, Tanaka challenges hitters early in the count and occasionally pays the price. I think we have already seen the biggest adjustment Tanaka will have to make. That is what happens to the confidence of someone who went 24-0 when some MLB piss-ant knocks the tar out of one of your pitches (which was bound to happen sooner or later). In 3 cases now, he has settled down to finish out the game quite nicely. The adjustments he needs to make are in his head rather than any mechanics.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The take that Tanaka like to challenge hitters (contrary to Matsusaka)is right on. Tanaka might be throwing too many strikes. The first HR he gave up in the spring was on a 0-2 fastball to a # 8 hitter. The 3-run blast he gave up to the #9 hitter the other night was reminiscent of that moment.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Wow. As good as the article on Carlos Gomez was, this is as bad. Is BP now catering to daily fantasy leagues?

Apr 15, 2014 5:30 PM on Struggling Stars
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This is one of the best articles at BP on a very relevant topic.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Make that Cinc 35 Stl 7 Pitt 0

Mar 23, 2014 2:51 PM on Staff Picks for 2014
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Here's the number of 1st place votes to win the division from last year. Nothing to be proud of at all. ----------------------------------------------------- Tampa Bay 36 Toronto 18 Detroit 36 LAA 26 Texas 14 Oakland 2 Wash 36 Cinc 35 StL 17 Pitt 0 LAD 24 SF 15

Mar 23, 2014 2:49 PM on Staff Picks for 2014
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -12

WOW I am always amazed at the amount of group think here at BP but this year you guys really outdid yourselves. Wash 38 (how wrong was this last year?) St. Louis 36 (I guess the Pirates really have no chance) LAD 38 (I never recall such a consensus for the Yankees with all that money) Trout 30 (even when he loses you think he actually won the award) Why hire 40 writers when you need only 2-3 to deliver the company line?

Mar 22, 2014 2:48 PM on Staff Picks for 2014
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Did they Braves medical department soft-sell the seriousness of the Medlen injury (partial tear / surgery uncertain / second opinion) while they negotiated with Santana? Bet you we find out both Medlen and Beachy are toast next week - a fact the Braves staff knew immediately but didn't want to fully disclose.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, this has been a lot of coverage for an organization the eschews counting statistics.

Mar 05, 2014 11:00 AM on Relief Pitchers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

NOT replicated anywhere else.

Feb 27, 2014 10:13 PM on Starting Pitchers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Any numbers that say Peralta is a good fielding shortstop is why I don't believe most fielding metrics. No less than 2 teams looked to replace him after watching him play SS. Watching him make one throw to 1st reveals mechanics that are replicated anywhere else. he Cardinals have had a lot of success moving people around the infield but they bit off more than they can chew with Jhonny.

Feb 27, 2014 10:12 PM on Starting Pitchers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

"General managers haven’t acted like moral police in the past, and it’s tough to square the idea that they would in Cruz’s case with the contracts Bartolo Colon and Jhonny Peralta signed this winter. Nor is it likely (one tweet aside) that most teams were worried about a post-PED decline or a second infraction—" Why shouldn't the value of these guys go up? They have all shown they can BEAT the testing system and only need to find a better source to continue to use PEDs to fuel their performance. That is the real lesson of Biogenesis.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Even as a Yankee fan this is a stupid deal. Especially in light of the Ellsbury signing. They could have signed Granderson instead of Gardner if they had just spent slightly less money on Ellsbury. They better hope they haven't locked themselves into 5 years of 25 HRs between them.

Feb 24, 2014 5:26 PM on The Gardner Constant
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Maybe PECOTA should be using a decaying AROD as a better PED comp for Pujols.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This article comes at a good time as I have an offer to trade Pineda for Rizzo in a strato keeper league. I think the only thing holding me back is that I'm not sure about a player that only Jed Hoyer seems to love 3 times over.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Congratulations to BP for predicting the demise of Derek Jeter. Its only after being WRONG for 10 years. In the 2009 Prospectus "By 2010 his bat won't play anywhere else." Jeter just went on to post an .871 OPS in 2009. After an OPS of .710 in 2010 the 2011 Prospectus used terms like embarrassing, 'lacks Joe Dimaagio's dignity' and said 'even if one makes the optimistic assumption Jeter can turn his offensive game around .." Well Jeter did just that increasing all of his line stats for 2 years. And here again are the attacks against of the classiest athletes in any sport. You put him down for his glove a decade ago, predicted his bat would disappear years ago, and now, knowing no good bounds, attack his character. And how many times in the last 10 years have we had to listen to BP defend pill poppers. Pathetic BP Pathetic

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"which favor current members at the expense of non-members, even if the non-members are future members." How does the change in the posting system favor current members over non-members? As a 25 year old, Tanaka got money no current member will ever get. I see that as favoring non-members.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

ditto

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Who provided the incentive to redo the posting system? Certainly not the Japanese owners who saw their piece of the pie go from $50 mil to $20mil. MLB owners anxious to either get a shot at Tanaka or devise another way to extract more subsidies from the Yankees? What was good for the goose (Rangers & Darvish, Red Sox & Matzo) wasn't good for the gander. A players union who was willing to sell their own arbitration-eligible players down the drain to enhance free agency? Mike Trout could only dream of getting this money at age 25 The players union just endorsed an inequity between a 25 year old player in Japan and one in the US.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Lets see. The Yankees are ridiculed both for have a $ 189 million payroll objective and going over it in the same article. Well that leaves a lot of room to be wrong. The latest estimates of the Yankee payroll had them about $ 10 million below the threshold before Tanaka. No less than 4 events intervened in preventing them staying under the payroll. 1)Pineda blowing out his shoulder 2)Banuelos coming up lame 3)Betances just not being good enough 4)Restructuring of the posting system in the last month If one of those had gone the other way, the Yankees would have had their starter and be under the $189 million. While they certainly could account for numbers 1,2,3 as late as a month ago, the restructuring of the posting system ultimately made it impossible to stay under the $189 million.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Seems like I remember reading in one of my Baseball Prospectus annuals of an effort at BP to project Japanese and Mexican league stats into MLB equivalents. Can BP do those projections today? If so, what do those projections say about Tanaka? I guess with those stats in Japan he might project to be the next statistical outlier akin to BP's projections on Matt Wieters.

Jan 22, 2014 12:08 PM on Yankees Sign Tanaka
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"Mark McGwire, who would be a Hall of Famer if not for a worthless waste of taxpayer money in March of 2003 and the hypocritical media hysteria that followed;" Very nice touch to remind us how BP has had its head in the sand with respect to PEDs for a very long time. Positively embarrassing comment for Joe.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

If he's been reading BP for all these years, he would probably would claim that PEDs have no effect upon performance.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Saying Koufax is better than Maddux is like saying Gale Sayers is better than a host of other RBs. Some will swear both were the best they ever saw.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This might be the worst move Friedman has ever made. Couldn't hold a job with LA and then Boston. Parlays his best year in a while which is still short of the league average into a 3 year contract? For a competitive team that's a waste at any price.

Dec 14, 2013 8:39 PM on Lone(y) Wolf
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Did the Yankees really offer him a 3 year contract and get beat out again this offseason?

Dec 14, 2013 8:33 PM on Omar Comin'
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Where is the list of players fixed by performance-enhancing drugs?

Dec 13, 2013 8:58 PM on How Great Thou Bart
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

Nova was Yankees best pitcher down the stretch and Pineda is better than 3/4 of the available free agents. So that should cover 2 days of rain.

Dec 08, 2013 4:19 AM on The AL East Rearms
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 4

The Yankees should have done this second (after McCann), forgot about Ellsbury and put Gardner in CF, and offered Cano $200 mil.

Dec 07, 2013 10:59 PM on The AL East Rearms
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 6

Loney was much more washed up in 2012 than Garret Jones was this year. Loney bottomed out at a .663 OPS vs RHP in 2012 before coming back last year at .798 vs RHP in 2013. Garret Jones at least managed .730 vs RHP this year. On the other hand, Jones is one year removed from a .888 OPS vs RHP in 2012. Seems Garret's recent low and high points are above that of Loney so I'm not quite sure why the Pirates would cut bait on Jones and take a bet on Loney who just had his best year in the last 6 other than 3 years of age.

Dec 06, 2013 3:37 PM on Fixing a Hole
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 5

I am still trying to figure out how the Yankees thought Ellsbury (7/$153 mil) > Granderson (4/$60 mil). Stupifying.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Justice, I agree. This series of signings, other than McCann, make no sense relative to one another whatsoever. McCann was needed to fill the sinkhole at C no doubt. I'd much rather have Granderson's contract than Ellsbury's, especially with Gardner around to provide many of the skills of Ellsbury. And if I was going to overpay, I'd rather do it for Cano than Ellsbury. As soon as the Yank's threw $153 mil to Ellsbury there was no way Cano would sign for $ 175. Without the Ellsbury pinstripe reference point, Cano may have had less reason to view $ 200 mil as an insult and more reason to return to the Bronx. I just think that Ellsbury is the worst player in this group for Yankee stadium and the one I'd least like to throw any money at.

Dec 06, 2013 3:13 PM on A Need Cano Basis
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Most in New York are NOT lauding this trade. Even if you accept the need to go out and make a big splash this off season to bring fans back and improve TV ratings (with which I would agree), this signing was just an awful one. First exactly who were the Yankees bidding against that they couldn't have gotten Ellsbury for 7 years / $ 140 and still grossly overpaid ? Secondly Ellsbury is simply just a good ballplayer not a great one. He's a sub .800 OPS outfielder last year and over his career. About the same OPS as Soriano over the last 5 years. His glove isn't as valuable to the Yankees since Gardner is an even better fielder. His health record is worse than many of the Yankees that were injured this year and last (Arod, Jeter, Tex, Granderson, Gardner). Beltran for 2-3 years is a better player (.840 OPS last 5 years) and would have been a better deal at any price. Just hold off on the tombstones for CC and TEX. I'm aware that no long term contract is viewed as good here at BP, but its not like the Yankees haven't got any value from them for their contracts. They probably got as much value from those two (Sabathia 4 years of 19-7 3.25 ERA, Tex 4 years of 33 HR /105 RBI .860 OPS ++ fielding) as any of the longer term contracts out there. If John Lackey can come back from the dead, I gotta believe CC can figure some things out. With respect to AJ, I guess you could fault their psych evaluation for not knowing he was a headcase for the bright lights.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"Shields, over the two or three seasons prior to his trade to the Royals, was worth about as much as (if not less than) Fister has been over his past two or three years, innings advantage and all." Well that would be your first mistake.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Peralta (along with all of the other non-analytical Biogenisis positives) are actually much more valuable because they have demonstrated that they can continue to take PEDs and NOT be caught by analytical testing. They are not examples of the testing system working. In fact, they are evidence it is NOT working. He just needs a better supplier. He might have fear of unscrupulous MLB investigators, but he has no fear of the MLB testing system.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -14

This article points out two things I despise about BP. 1) being a slave to defensive metrics when two organizations decided Peralta can't play SS 2) ignoring the proven benefit of PEDs to get a player a contract (see Melky Cabrera) What PED user is PECOTA using as a comp?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

At least now Trout can at least be the best defensive outfielder on his team.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"My suspicion is that even if MLB made its case on the conduct it was overreaching on the penalty, which will be reduced to 50-125 games, with a greater likelihood of 65-85 depending on which charges were proven." Isn't this just speculation without any basis in fact unless you were a fly on the wall during the arbitration hearing? You have no idea of what was presented.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

Miguel Cabrera was the AL MVP. Mariano Rivera

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

"P.S. Fangraphs put McCutchen ahead of second-place Carlos Gomez by 0.6 WAR and ahead of fourth-place Paul Goldschmidt by 1.8 WAR. (Matt Carpenter came in third.) Baseball-reference put Gomez in the lead, 0.2 WAR ahead of McCutchen and 1.3 WAR ahead of third-place Goldschmidt. So, the article's criteria don't apply to the 2013 NL MVP race." As long as sabermetrics puts out this crap (Gomaz NL MVP), it is really hard to take any arguments for Trout seriously.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

You've got about 1/3 of the FAs resigning with their old teams. How does that compare historically? Seems a little high.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

That would make this World Series the showdown of two historical statistical outliers - the Cardinals with their BA with RISP and the Red Sox with their BABIP.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Where is that team number here at BP?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"and not keeping your players healthy can cost you 15-20 games in the standing" .... Brian Cashman

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

All the more reason to let Siegrist pitch to Ellsbury AND Ortiz. he was better equipped to handle Pedroia in between especially with Victorino out.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Matheny found the courage to go back to Kevin Siegrist, whom he seemed reluctant to use against the Red Sox slugger after the lefty—who shut down same-sided hitters all season—allowed a homer to Ortiz in Game One. The move paid off with a strikeout, much as it might have earlier in the game (and the series) had Matheny not allowed a single plate appearance to sway his bullpen approach." I think I said this in a posting after one of the games. Being afraid to go back to Siegrist in any meaningful way resulted in starters left in too long or relievers overused. In game 2, Martinez pitched the 7th and 8th with Ellsbury leading off the 8th. In game 3, Siegrist pitched to flip Salty and Drew and Martinez was left to pitch to Ellsbury in the 8th. In game 4, Lynn was left in too long (acc to some here) to pitch to Ellsbury and Ortiz in the 6th. In game 5, Wainwright was left in to pitch to Ellsbury after the horse was out the barn door. The cascade effect of Siegrist giving up that HR to Ortiz in game 1 colored their approach to him and the use of the entire pitching staff thought the series.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

If anything was more surprising about the Red Sox run to success this year, it is reading this article here at BP. I expected to read "How the Red Sox got smart and won a World Series" (see previous book) but to actually read how they won in spite of their decisions is a shockingly honest perspective here at BP. To that end, thank you BP.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

15. The Nationals Will be the Best Team in Baseball Ben, why take full credit for this one when you can share it with most of your colleagues?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

I was specifically talking about Siegrist pitching vs Ortiz. Most people coming into the series would have thought that Siegrist was the best LH option vs Ortiz. Matheny thought so too as he brought him into game 1 but Ortiz homered. That small sample result has colored Matheny's use of Siegrist since. In game 2, Matheny left Martinez in for a 2nd inning to face Ellsbury leading off the 8th In game 3, Matheny brought Siegrist to flip Salty and Drew. A lower leverage situation. In game 4, Matheny gets criticized for leaving Lynn in too long as Lynn faces Ellsbury again to start off the 6th. In game 5, Matheny gets criticized for leaving Wainwright in to face Ellsbury. My point was that after giving up that initial HR to Ortiz, Matheny had had ample opportunities to bring in Siegrist to face Ellsbury or Ortiz in critical situations and he has chosen to roll the dice with someone else.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

There would be no relievers left for either team if both managers followed all the advice here to yank the starters at first wiff. Getting the lead without having to take Lester out was the desired objective all along. As soon as the Red Sox got the lead there was no way Lester was coming out. That was a case closed. That walk to Drew almost assured Lester would bat. A run produced from that spot with a PH would at least have gotten Lester out of the game. That is why the Ross double was so devastating. It got the run in without having to PH for Lester. I saw no criticism for letting Lackey pitch the 8th the other night. That seems a lot more egregious that letting Lester stay in with the lead.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't it time to go back to Siegrist? Yes, he got burned once but so has everyone else since then. Matheny has been afraid to bring him in to face Ellsbury or Ortiz and has essentially taken one of his big arms out of play causing a cascade effect of when the starters get pulled and how the rest of the bullpen has been used.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Lackey pitching the 8th should worry you.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"What was actually going on in that game was that the Cardinals were being shut down by Boston pitching, plain and simple." Much more perceptive than second-guessing on Matheny. This game was lost because the Cardinals could not exploit the one advantage they had for 4 innings - and 86 mph fastball from Buchholz. Well maybe a second advantage of getting to see Lackey in the 8th.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

"That matchup was unlikely to lead to disaster, but just as the WRONG MANAGERIAL MOVE OFTEN ENDS IN SUCCESS , the right one sometimes backfires." We aren't talking about bringing in Lackey in the 8th are we? That move was the results of pulling your starter early for consecutive games. Maybe a position Matheny was trying to avoid down the road going with Lynn in the 6th.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

You are going pretty far out on the plank to criticize Matheny when his two best moves (Maness vs. Gomes and Siegrist vs. Ortiz earlier) have blown up in his face. Sometimes the players just have to perform and that pitch to Gomes was as fat as any Maness threw this year. The real story is that Matheny has been afraid to bring Siegrist in to face Ortiz after the HR the other night when he has had several opportunities to do so. Twice he has essentially IW a batter to put a runner into scoring position.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 6

This was really a very simple call. Runners accidently run into fielders making a play all the time. We don't sit here and debate the intentions of the runner or whether the runner could have done something to avoid doing so. If he hits the fielder, he's out. The onus is on the runner as long as the ball is being fielded and on the fielder after the fielding chance passes. The rule is pretty clear here. That was obstruction. You could debate whether the obstruction was enough to prevent the runner from scoring. I don't know how anyone can say that standing, falling to the ground and standing up again (1 sec)doesn't take at least enough time to make the difference in 2-3 feet of someone sliding at the plate unless they have some vested interest in the outcome that colors their view.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Mariano throwing the ball into CF was even more improbable than him blowing this save.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Repeat after me ... there is no thing such as a clutch hitter ... there is no thing such as a clutch hitter ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

I'll second everything here. The analytical community prides themselves on their attempts to quantitate fielding. From the early efforts of some guy sitting in the stands to charting hits to the more dispassionate regression of putouts and assists, the efforts are to be praised for trying to advance the merits of good fielding. But efforts are not to be confused with providing the right answer. The analytical community has wrapped its self around WAR as if it the end-statistic. That would be impossible until the fielding metrics are indeed correct. Frankly I find it hard to understand how Trout could standout in any fielding metric when playing next to an even better CF in Bourjous. Just who gets credit for all those FBs in LCF? WAR is accepted by way more people than those that actually understand the mathematics behind it. Kind of like ESPN's QBR? Obviously 30 of 32 BP writers have chosen to put there faith in that metric above everything else. That I believe is the result of a collective desire to validate their belief that they have the 'golden number' to define baseball performance.

Oct 01, 2013 10:28 AM on Handing Out the Hardware
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Put someone down? You got to be kidding. Just look at what happened to the comments of whatevergong82. Negative rating of -12 just for suggesting that Cabrera was the MVP last year as well as this year. Just who is included in this part of groupthink? And just who is putting down any dissenting opinion?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

BP writers like to think of themselves as smarter than everyone else. Trout was a foregone conclusion despite the fact Cabrera improved on every metric over a Triple Crown year. Without the injury, Cabrera would have had back-to-back Triple Crowns, but that just small potatoes for the BP geniuses here. I'll put all my faith that WAR has the proper weighting of defense into the metric that something that was nearly unprecedented in baseball. And that's putting aside any notion of valuable for a team that didn't play a meaningful game since May.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

The retirement of the Babe Ruth of relievers was THE moment last night. The stories of the Indians and Rangers last night will long be forgotten in the annals of baseball history. Even the Rays acknowledged the moment was bigger than their own ballgame. Even as good as Griffey was, he wasn't the greatest at his position in the history of the game. If you want even coverage of each baseball team, watch the MLB network. Hell any baseball on ESPN nowadays is a bonus as they have abdicated their position in the sport to debate for the 999th time whether Tony Romo is an elite QB. Last week when the three NL teams (Pitt, Stl, Cincy) all played a game going down to a bases loaded situation in the 9th and Bos/ Bal and TB/Tex went extra innings, ESPN covered baseball 5 1/2 minutes out of 60 on Sportscenter the next morning. So watch MLB network instead of staying up till 1 AM to see Baseball Tonight on ESPN.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

"There are 253 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 1000 innings since 1990. Rivera’s BABIP over that span (.265) is the lowest of them all. He’s gotten such good results on balls in play not because he’s been lucky or because he’s had great defenders behind him, but because he elicits such weak contact." Surprised someone at BP isn't defending BABIP on the notion this is a small sample.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

Congratulations to making it to step 7 of the Apologist's Bible. 7. Who cares?

Aug 23, 2013 6:44 PM on Braun Comes Clean(er)
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"I look forward to sometime in mid-2015 when Ryan Braun comes to the plate and no one thinks about this." I think Braun saw the treatment Arod was getting in terms of physical and verbal abuse and worried he was about to receive the same, not just for a couple more years like Arod, but for the remaining 8 years of his contract. Ryan came forward because he realized his stonewalling wasn't going to work and just wanted to throw something else against the wall to see if it would stick. Well see take 3 soon.

Aug 23, 2013 12:08 PM on Braun Comes Clean(er)
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

BP staff - World Series champions =~ 95 wins PECOTA - 88 wins Actual wins - 80 wins Seems the BP staff was off collectively (even compared to PECOTA) more than any individual player. "Despite the 20th-place standing in offense, all eight of their current starting position players will be in place on Opening Day 2014, because there’s really no obvious place to upgrade." "But the offense is primed to bounce back and have some full seasons out of 2013’s limited contributors ..." That logic seems even more strained than the groupthink that lead the BP staff to pick them this year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"If sabermetric inquiry cannot figure out why major league managers behave, almost to a man, in a certain fashion, that means nothing more or less than a failure of inquiry. And the sabermetrican needs to go back and study the matter further until he understands why." As a group, I've found sabermaticians to be quite dismissive (bordering on arrogant) of some of the conventional 'wisdom' employed everyday on a baseball field.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

"A team that has a come-from-behind walk-off win in the bottom of the ninth will be the lead on Baseball Tonight, assuming that no one took steroids that day." Actually Gardner and Cabrera's heroics made Arod's HR second page.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Better question ... Puig or Myers in next year's keeper leagues?

Aug 12, 2013 10:38 AM on Wil the Thril
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Today was a great day for baseball. The three biggest things to come out of this are 1) MLB (and Bud) finally being proactive in addressing the problem 2) The support of the union in applying the penalties 3) The clean members of the 'rank and file' expressing themselves in a way never seen before. "What everyone (except for Rodriguez) seems to want is to put this situation behind them." Not me. Hopefully this is the new day where MLB will no longer look the other way, the union will no longer defend cheats at the expense of those playing fair, and the non-guilty will be free to speak up in their majority (and perhaps call out other cheaters). "Cheating in sports affects relatively few people adversely in any material way." really? Check the tweet of Dan Meyer who was beaten out of a job in 2011 by Bastardo and who is now is out of baseball.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"At various points, BP’s wait-and-see, innocent-until-there’s-some-actual-evidence stance on steroids has led to its authors being labeled PED apologists." Ya think ... I posted this years ago at this site because it covered just about every excuse used by various BP writers and posters .... The apologist's Bible ... 1. Steroids have no effect upon performance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares? "We haven’t taken an internal poll and decided to condone or condemn PEDs, and we don’t issue an official stance on steroids as part of the author orientation process." Maybe not, but I've saved a lot of past articles by many prominent BP authors that would only reinforce that 'head-in-the-sand' notion. Five things have changed here. 1. MLB has been proactive here when it could have simply declared the current testing program has put the problem to bed. As the previous poster noted, this might be Bud's shining moment. 2. MLB has applied penalties outside those for failed tests as agreed to in the labor agreement. 3. The union has agreed not to fight those penalties outside the agreement. 4. The early leak of this information has allowed the rank and file of the union to express its feeling on the matter (which the union has rarely considered in these matters). 5. Braun becomes only the 2nd player (other than Giambi) to admit to using PEDs. There is a confirmed user and his performance did rise to an MVP quality. Lastly congratulations to all those that have suffered the scorn of the PED apologist throughout the years. We didn't get to this point in our understanding of the problem because of any single person's actions but as the result of the cumulative efforts of many who were ridiculed along the way. The writer that noticed the jars in McGwire's locker. The Mitchell Report. The congressional hearings. Jose Canseco The investigative reports by two SF writers into Barry Bonds. The leak of the 104. Brain McNamee All were ridiculed as a waste of time but all contributed in their own way to our understanding of the problem in an incremental way. Do we know all the answers? No, but we'd know a lot less than we do now if everyone had accepted the Apologist's Bible.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Lets add Ryan Braun as moving to the suspended list.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Any chance the batters stats could include lefty / righty OPS (VSL_OPS, VSR_OPS)? How about any splits for pitchers?

Jun 25, 2013 3:21 PM on Team Tracker, Basics
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

You might have argued that MO should have been used before Adam Warren who threw 6 shutout innings and Claibourne. I would argue the real surprise was that he replaced Claiborne mid-inning which he hasn't done in forever. Just a counter argument to your article.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Well Joe Girardi brought Mo instead of Joba into the middle of the 18th inning (seemingly following your advice) and it didn't work out. Rivera's less stellar record in tie games is well documented.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Agree

Jun 11, 2013 5:21 PM on Gerrit Cole
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

The Apologist's Bible ... where is BP today? 1. Steroids have no effect upon performance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares

Jun 06, 2013 12:18 PM on Potential PED Fallout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

BP has always wished this problem would go away and mostly ridiculed efforts by anyone to get to the bottom of it. The most obvious reason is the one offered by Will Carroll at the end of this discussion from 6 years ago. Because if Will is wrong, PECOTA is a House of Cards. Here are some excerpts from a BP chat by Will Carroll .. my word file shows a date of 12/14/2007. ----------------------------------------------------------- Jennifer (Stamford, CT): Why do you consistently act as apologist for these cheaters? I have two boys, one of them in their first year of high school, and he'll play baseball. They copy what their heroes do. To read your site, it appears you condone cheating and illegal drug use. I wont allow my credit card to be used to renew my son's subscription. Will Carroll: I'd invite you to read the first sentence of my book. "There is absolutely no place in the game for performance enhancing drugs." If by "apologist" you mean someone willing to keep an open mind, look at all sides of the issue, and call for definitive proof before condeming someone, I'll wear that. Gary Huckabay (San Francisco, CA): Hi, Will... Why does anyone care about this? I mean, seriously. I don't understand why this is even interesting. Maybe I'm the deaf guy trying to figure out why people listen to music, but in all honesty, I just don't understand it. Maybe a reader or two can chime in. Will Carroll: I'll agree here, even having written thousands of words on the topic and not a single one by choice. It's a media driven story of puritanical interest. Will Carroll: I can't wait to see if Nate Silver or someone could put together some sort of performance analysis based on the new information. It wouldn't surprise me if we did find no real affect. Just the presence of Bonds and Clemens means that we'd have to see a big dropoff for everyone else.

Jun 06, 2013 11:59 AM on Potential PED Fallout
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

I think someone is expecting to live past 116.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Does NESN know of this stuff? Remy could be in for a long night on tonight's game.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Could some of that difference be due to tremendous job done by a bullpen (25 scoreless innings in a row prior to last night) that had some questions entering the year (Rivera?) and its share of injuries thus far? How about some kudos to Joe Girardi who has demonstrated that he can manage a bullpen and trust some young kids in a way Joe Torre never could. One difference between Yankees and Red Sox last 2 years. Soriano and Rivera about >90% saves. Boston relievers in save situations since Papelbon left are 5-11 with a 4.68 ERA. And the Red Sox have been on a give-away program (players and money) trying to replace him. Hey but according to BP closers are overrated.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Actually I have heard announcers praise Reynolds contribution on defense at 1B last year in replacing Chris Davis and the overall improvement to the team defense with Machado replacing Reynolds at 3B. The overall takeaway is that Reynolds is significantly better at 1B than he was at 3B.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This is like a Who's Who of bad umpires. Confounded results? Or the best catchers just get the worst out of the bad umpires?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The 3 videos of Choo tell more than any fielding metric ever could.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Sorry that was Joe Hamrahi not Joe Hamilton

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

No less than 8 BP writers picked the trifecta of the Angels, Blue Jays, and the Dodgers ALL to win their divisions. Jonah Birenbaum Mike Gianella Joe Hamilton Zachary Levine Ben Lindbergh Bret Sayre Paul Singman John Viola

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

The best explanation may be that 26, 16, and 24 BP writers picked them to win their divisions! And we know they can't be wrong can they?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Didn't we use to get this information at this site?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -11

Absolutely amazing. Mr. Faleris and Sayre actually mentioned the franchise and prospect ranking - something Jason couldn't find the few words to do in his write-up of Bubba Starling.

Apr 21, 2013 1:59 PM on Anthony Rendon
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

What were the progamming errors?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

In the long history of pitchers hitting batters, the number of injuries is disproportionately one-sided. There are virtually no consequences, from an injury standpoint, to a pitcher hitting a batter (Greinke the exception). So a batter going out to occasionally knock the snot out of a pitcher goes but a short way of giving the pitcher some pause for his actions.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

And it would have taken three words from you and maybe a few more to provide the context my response did.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

It says a lot about your assumptions about your audience that you don't think the overall # 5 pick and top 40 prospect needs an introduction that at least mentions his franchise team. There are circle of baseball fans who visit this site that wouldn't know Mason Williams, Albert Amora, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Heaney.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Thank God it isn't. BP would have had to raise your subscription price to cover all the losses on its bets for the Red Sox to win the division in the last decade.

Mar 31, 2013 7:51 AM on Staff Picks for 2013
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -13

BP is so full of group think. Not surprising at all that 17 would fall in line.

Mar 30, 2013 6:27 PM on Staff Picks for 2013
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

BP has been ignoring the Yankees to win the division the past decade. I'm pretty sure they have picked the Red Sox more than the Yankees and have been correct with the Red Sox only one time. And how many did the Yankees win ... about 7?

Mar 30, 2013 6:21 PM on Staff Picks for 2013
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

When you said 'pass the Bonds' I thought you were refering to 'the cream'.

Jan 29, 2013 2:18 PM on Pass the Bonds, Please
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Here's the change in the process that is needed .... Major League Baseball and players have agreed to ramp up the battle against illicit performance-enhancing drugs by instituting in-season testing for human growth hormone. The timing of the announcement comes the day after the National Baseball Hall of Fame announced that no former players were selected for induction from a ballot that included some stars who have been linked to performance-enhancing drugs.

Jan 10, 2013 2:53 PM on A Change in the Process
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Edgar Martinez was the best DH in baseball history (Ortiz pending) and he was ignored for reasons that have nothing to do with PEDs. Edgar cost his teams fewer runs on defense than Piazza because he wasn't out there.

Jan 10, 2013 8:22 AM on The Voting Travesty
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

We could only hope that every media person in the country (including a few writers at BP) who are campaigning for increasing the 10 player limit read your well-researced article.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Your right Richard .. all theses excuses have been used here at BP at one time or another. The next one is going to be that there were so many people useing PEDS that we can't sort it out. So we've gone from a few isolated cases to everyone was doing it.

Jan 09, 2013 4:25 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

The Apologist's Bible ... where do you fall? 1. Steroids have no effect upon perfromance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares?

Jan 09, 2013 3:44 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -11

The only enshrinement here is that of Baseball Prospectus into Hall of Shame as a PED apologist. Nice to get everyone on record though.

Jan 09, 2013 11:54 AM on Casting Our Ballots
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

At least Tim McCarver and Eric Karros offered their words of wisdom for free.

Dec 29, 2012 4:52 PM on How to Pitch
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Hard to believe he couldn't top Russell Martin (in terms of years or money) on the open market.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, that comment about Freehan just reminded me how old I am

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

The overspending by the Red Sox in an attempt to keep up with the Yankees resulted in a demise similar to that suffered by the Soviet Union in trying to match the spending of a Ronald Reagan-inspired defense budget. Eventually they ran out of bullets and collpased under their own weight. The Red Sox, like the Soviet Union, will return, but never to the same prominence they once held. Hey but they always have those 4 games in October to remember.

Aug 26, 2012 7:38 PM on L.A. Consequential
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

"I don't see what that has to do with PECOTA." The comps in PECOTA are pretty worthless if you're going to use PED users to project careers of non-PED users .. or use non-PED users to project the careers of PED users. BP has consistently underplayed the effects of PEDS because to acknowledge the effect would undermine all those PECOTA comps on which much of their analysis is based. Just about anyone who has put up unbelievable numbers in the last 15 years has been found out to be .... well ... unbelievable. We are on the cusp of a hall-of-fame class that should include many 1st ballot inductees but instead the players will probably never get in if the voting on Big Mac is any indication. So if you want to ignore that the best of the best of the 90s are nearly 100% indicted in the problem go ahead and bury your head in the sand.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"But I think I'm the one being the skeptic here, in that we can't prove that there's a link between his PED use and improved performance, and so I'm hesitant to conclude that there is one. I think it's plausible that Melky's improvement was mostly some minor maturation by a player at his peak ... " Sadly, entirely consistent with the BP mantra in support of PECOTA.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

"However, PECOTA doesn’t know Cabrera was taking testosterone. If—and this is really a stretch—you think that either all or some portion of Cabrera’s improvement in 2012 stemmed from his use of a banned substance, ... " This really points out the House of Cards that is PECOTA ... none of these comps mean anything for PED abusers. Forget about what missing Cabrera means to the Giants going forward... what advantage did they accrue by having him as a cheater for the first half of the year? I'm sure the difference between his Yankee and Giant WARP is worth at least 2-3 games in the standings. That is a disservice to all of the teams chasing the Giants. And if you really want to extrapolate .. the home field advatage for the NL in the World Series as delivered by All-Star MVP Melky. Of course, if testosterone is as common as Conte would have us believe, we can fall back on the Apologist's list of excuses for PEDs that it really doesn't matter as it all cancels out in the end.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"What troubles me even more is the ever-increasing tendency of the front office towards denigrating team members before letting them go. Or, as with Papi, before re-signing them! It's unnecessary, transparent, eminently avoidable, and it will only engender ill will. It smacks of the egos of the highly-placed few being valued more than the happiness of the many, and I don't expect to see much on-field success until it's ironed out." Never were truer words spoken. The core problem in Boston is the management that has produced this disaster and continue to only make it worse with each and every move.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

How about a serious reason such as creating an opening for Travis Snider and his 1.000 OPS in the minors after the blunder to sign Encarncion to a 3 year deal. Save the comedy for someplace else.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -13

This guy has been a loser and a cancer wherever he has been. He finally has a career batting year to make up for his pathetic effort in the field and he's cashed in. Toronto will rue this signing and have to pay part of the contract to get rid of him before it expires.

Jul 13, 2012 10:49 AM on The Wages of Edwin
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"Also, according to the chart, Boston's playoff odds appear to be about 37%. The article suggests the odds are 51%. Was this a typo, or am I missing something?" Yes, BP has trouble acknowledging the deficiencies of the Red Sox even when their own numbers tell them so.

Jul 05, 2012 9:59 AM on AL East
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Any chance Jeter's low defensive metrics are a product of the infield as that of NYA is the third most offensive.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Travis Snider's performance last year invited the logjam in the Toronto OF /DH that sent him to the minors this year. Now after a month of 1.200 OPS he's out with a wrist injury at a time he could have reclaimed his position.

May 31, 2012 11:11 AM on Blocked Prospects
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Just heard on NESN this morning that Bobby V had to remake his lineup last night because he mistakenly thought that the Twins starter Liam Hendricks was a lefty. It be nice if Bobby mastered Big League Managing 101 before claiming he's got his doctorate.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

The truth be told .. EVERYTHING is wrong in Boston right now as it was last September. The owner wanted both the GM and manager out of town and is more interested in his soccer team across the ocean. Cherrington is a lap dog to the owner and executed their desire to go on the cheap in the offseason (Scutaro for a bunch of medivac arms). A medical staff that has failed to keep pitchers on the field three years running and has been questioned by some of its own players. A roster full of Boy Wonder's mistakes that will financially handicap the Red Sox for at least 3 more years. A clubhouse segregated into prima donnas and worker bees. Bobby V is only the last straw to orchestrate over the complete and total collapse of a dysfunctional organization the recieved the praise of BP for way too many years. Valentin "the most qualified candidate" ... PLEASE Yankees fans could not have picked a better person to do his part to insure the decline of last September would continue. "Isolated moment" for questionable pitchig decisions? For God's sake the season is barely 15 games old. Two huge gaffes (Bard tired and 3 W's & Morales to face 3 of the best hitters vs lefties in the AL)that cost 2 games out of 15 is a pretty large N out of 15. All of this was dysfuction was readily apparent to the entire world but five BP writers still had the gall to continue the fine BP tradition of picking the Red Sox to win the AL East. In the last ten years I believe the BP writer consensus has picked the Red Sox to win the AL East about 6 or 7 years and has never been right (the one year Boston did win the AL East they were not picked). I thought the myopia that BP has towards the Red Sox had finally ended this year it continues with this defense of Bobby Valentin. Fro full disclosure the BP writers who picked Boston to win the AL East RJ Anderson Cee Angi Larry Granillo Sam Miller Jason Park and the only one to pick Boston 1st and New York 3rd (not making the playoffs) Cee Angi Just tha facts.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I have forwarded the e-mail to customer service. There reply was "we are not sending this information or providing any information to LinkedIn. We're sorry that this is outside of our control. Our only suggestion is that you adjust your LinkedIn message settings to opt-out." I'm not sure if I really find this an acceptable solution. If the messages are legitimate then there is some responsibilty on the part of the originator. I am sure that Mr. Hamrahi doesn't want every Tweet he posts to be recircultated by Linked In and find mail boxes of people with whom he has never communicated with in any way, shape, or form. Yes I can opt-out but that places the entire burden on the receipiant.

Feb 22, 2012 7:35 AM on BP2012 Shipping Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I've already sent a complaint to customer service. I will forward the e-mail for investigation after getting their reply.

Feb 20, 2012 5:15 PM on BP2012 Shipping Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Why am I getting a LinkedIn updtate via e-mail telling me 1) that Joe Hamrahi picked up the book last night and will enjoy time with it today and 2) that Joe Perrotto has a story for this week's USA Today Sports weekly? I have never communicated with either Joe via LinkedIn or e-mail in my life so I find it pretty repulsive that either form of communication is being used for promotional purposes. Is this being done with the knowledge of Baseball Prospectus? Cease and desist

Feb 20, 2012 3:22 PM on BP2012 Shipping Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

The playoff expansion this year will become to be known as the 'Boston bailout' given the improvement by the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers and Angels.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Peralta and Cabrera certainly have the be the worst defensive left side of the infield in the majors

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Well I guess it won't be Posada as he will announce his retirement tomorrow. The combination of Posada's numbers vs R and Andruw Jones vs L from this year tops any of the other stiffs being discussed here.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

If the Yankees are serious about getting under the salary cap in the next few years the solution is obvious. Not only does Posada have the best numbers versus righties than all of the above alternatives, he could be gotten dirt cheap. Posada would jump at the chance and sign for a penny.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

The real deal the Yankees wanted for a long time was one for King Felix in exchange for Montero, and reluctantly, as few killer B's as possible.. The Mariners have remained steadfast in saying King Felix was unavailable and ultimately got the Yankees to give up Montero without parting with Felix. How about an analysis of this deal relative to the above alternative? Or even relative to the failed deal for Cliff Lee a few years ago? There is a historical context to this trade that has been missed here while being discussed in write-ups elsewhere.

Jan 16, 2012 11:41 AM on Jesus the Mariner
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

Truth be told - BP proabably needed the weekend to try to figure out how they are going to pick the Red Sox for the AL East like the do nearly every year after this trade.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

What is the purpose of an unfiltered blog if not to get the immediate (diversified?)impressions from at least one member of a host of BP writers on the most important news of the weekend? None of that would preclude the definitive white paper that we will get tomorrow. God forbid that we get something other than a monolith of opinion on the subject.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Anybody at home here at BP on the weekend to blog about the Montero - Pineda trade?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

A most relevant question that I thought would have been answered in this article.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

MLB to institute HGH testing ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Six years after leaving Boston, Johnny Damon gives Tampa Bay a 2-0 lead.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Which was the worst prediction ... Boston Herald declare the 2012 Red Sox 'Best Team Ever' or 29 of 30 Baseball Prospectus writers pick them to win the division? For far too long, BP has been in love with the Red Sox picking them to win the division on a nearly yearly basis but have been correct just ONCE (BP picked NY the other year Boston won the division). This year such a consensus was reached despite PECOTA showing a one-game difference between New York and Boston. Only an overwhelming environment of GROUP THINK could get 29 of 30 writers to pick 'tails' in essentially what amounted to a coin flip as predicted by BP's own metrics. This September was just the final chapter in the total collapse of an organization at EVERY level. Boy Wonder spent over a half BILLION dollars on contracts to Crawford, Lackey, Renteria, Lugo, Drew, Jenks, Cameron, Matsusaka leaving the team strapped to make any improvements looking forward. Francona's handling of the bullpen left the team with only 3 qualified relievers in which he had any confidence at the end. BP mocked Joe Torre for his bullpen handling which was infinitely better than that showed by Francona. I'm sure BP will ignore the team chemistry issues as it doesn't believe team chemistry has any place for the most part in explaining anything. The pitching coaches, despite the change this year, have brought little to the party in fixing numerous pitchers that Boy Wonder brought in on the cheap thinking they could be fixed. Will Carroll used to extole the vitrues of the Red Sox medical and conditioning staff that has been nothing but a joke over the last two years as Red Sox players sought outside opinions on their own efforts. When guys like Lowell broke down it was easy to blame his age. Harder to use the same excuse as the injured players got younger. Counting on any improvement next year as a result of the medical staff looks pretty weak right now. The minor league system, gutted in trades for Agone and Vmart, had nothing to offer the big league team when they desperately needed something as simple as a breathing body to fill out the rotation. Lets not forget Bill James and those defensive metrics that said Mike Cameron was a better defensive player in CF than Jacoby Ellsbury. That those same metrics would applaud Carl Crawford seems laughable given his play costing the Red Sox two games over the last week. Even Agone, the one player that Theo lusted for over 5 seasons looked lost in the glare of big games versus NY and TB. At least he had the experience of the San Diego collapse last year to draw on. The Boston Red Sox became the old Soviet Union to the Yankee's Ronald Reagen defensive spending. Desperate to keep up, they spent themselves into obsolescence. They didn't get smarter, they just got poorer and worse on the field. The wall has come down. "there's no reason to be pessimistic about the team's future in 2012." Sure thing ... and even now BP probably has their playoff probabilty at 5.2 % for THIS year. I'll make one prediction ... BP writers (not PECOTA) will pick the Red Sox to win the AL East in 2012. And they will be wrong YET AGAIN.

Sep 30, 2011 11:51 AM on Boston Red Sox
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

McC gives it up tonight to Soriano ... maybe there are no (C)ards left to play

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Playoff probabiltiy? Hey 29 of 30 BP writers picked Boston to win the division and they are way too smart to be so wrong. Amazingly PECOTA only had the Yankees and Red Sox one game apart but the group think that operates at BP lead 29 of 30 writers to pick the Red Sox for the division.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Putting Cameron in CF (one year ahead of being out of baseball) and moving Ellsbury to LF was just one of Theo's bad moves in the last few years. Sometimes (some would say most of the time) those defensive metrics are plain wrong.

Sep 16, 2011 12:04 PM on Ward, Cameron Released
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

The call at home plate in the Pirates-Braves game is probably the best example of a call best left to the human element than the replay booth. The throw beat the runner home and most umpires are going to call that runner out 98% of the time on that basis alone. On the other hand, while one replay seemed to show thw runner was out, that from another angle clearly showed more of a swipe on the tag that was 60-40% at best. That second replay was inconclusive enough that any call on the field would have been upheld. Just the fact that the two replays showed something different is an indictment of the replay system. My point is that a human umpire using 'the guy is out if the throw beats him' would have rendered a better call here than an inconclusive swipe tag on the replay. The mistake was the umpire trying to bo too fine in a call that was even less conclusive on replay.

Sep 14, 2011 1:25 PM on Commissioner for a Day
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Check Jim Hendry's bio ... he could have stopped after being a baseball coach at Creighton and he would have forgot more about baseball than Andrew Freidman will ever know. Nice model the Rays have ... be terrible for 10 years ... get draft picks only others can dream of ... get to the playoffs once ... sign so few stars that you play to an empty stadium except when the Yankees or Red Sox are in town .. get a finance model such that you can't even sign or keep at-market free agents The Cubs have been to the playoffs more times than the Rays in the last decade and bulit a brand at least sold a lot of tickets Being financially efficient while winiing is even less important now that Rickets owns the team ... winning YES ... doing it within the artifical BP construct of financial efficiency NO

Aug 23, 2011 5:38 PM on Multifold Changes
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

"Gonzalez has not been the league’s most productive player per WARP, as Jose Bautista is nearly three wins ahead of him, but because of his market, batting average, quality of teammates, and the likelihood of a Red Sox playoff appearance, expect the big man to be in the thick of the MVP chatter." Now that Bautitsta has pretty much dismissed last season as a fluke, it will be interesting if he gets any support from BP (or anyone else) for MVP. Or if all those intangible reasons (that BP is usually so likely to dismiss) are now annointed on Mr. Gonzalez. My betting is that BP ignores its past tendacies (and the numbers)and choses to exhault a Red Sox in the end.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I've already seen the replay of Jeyer's homer 25 times and not one person has described it as a 'hanging' curevball. Watch the video. The pitch was below his knees when he hit it.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The most obvious solution to the Yankee relief pitching issues is to get Nova to the bullpen to serve as a multiple innings guy. He has consistently pitched 3-4 innings of good baseball in his starts only to implode in innings 5-7. The Yankees have lacked that multiple inning releiver ever since Aceves. Nova is only a back end starter at best but could be a great mid reliever.

Jun 12, 2011 5:46 PM on The Trials of Joba
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Could have been an opportunity to discuss MLB's policy on medical exemptions on PEDs.

Jun 12, 2011 5:38 PM on Big Papi on Parade
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Matt Wieters is certainly no bigger a bust than BP's PECOTA projections for him.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Exactly how incompetent is the Red Sox medical staff? Matzo man complained about his elbow on April 29, the Red Sox bring him back to pitch in RELIEF, he has a belated MRI, the Red Sox say the problem is managable, and later say he is "feeling better daily" three days before they annnounce he needs surgery. I thought they had all these special tests to monitor arm strength. So much for being ahead of the curve. see Cubs , Prior, Cashner

Jun 04, 2011 10:12 AM on Sciatica State
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

The number one reason the Red Sox will win the division ... 29 of 30 BP writers can't be wrong ... even if their coin flips all came up heads

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Wow ... 29 out of 30 BP writers pick the Red Sox. This is over the top even for BP. How many times has BP picked the Red Sox the past decade? I think about 7. How many times have they been right? Exactly once. (One other year the Red Sox did win the division, BP picked the Yankees). The Yankees have a lot more flexibilty for mid season additions to correct their starter problems. The Red Sox have exactly none. Locked in with all those contracts. If Beckett and Matzo have the same season as last, the Yankees will have the better 4th and 5th starters by the end of the year.

Mar 31, 2011 7:30 PM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

W-L record doesn't count for everything, especially in the context of a limited sample of one year considering how bad Seattle was this year, and how good Felix was as a pitcher. In Blyleven's case, however, he managed to be a .534 pitcher for teams that were essentially .500 over 22 seasons. His teams were not bad at all ... just average. And he was just a little better than average. For each year if you multiply his decisions by his team's winning percentage, he should have been 269-268 ... essentially .500. Blyleven won exactly 18 more games over 22 seasons than an average pitcher with as many decisions as himself. In only 4 years did he win 5 games more than he lost. So winning games wasn't just a one year anomaly with Bert, it was a life-long problem. A better BP article would be to examine how someone with such stuff could be such an under achiever in terms of winning games. Just be sure that the reason isn't that he played for bad teams ... just average ones.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

TB counters by trading Garza ... They parlayed years and years of being absolutely terrible into a 3-year run that's over.

Jan 07, 2011 10:15 AM on Red Sox Regnant?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

One AL East division in the last 15 years ...

Jan 06, 2011 8:56 PM on Red Sox Regnant?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

This is a broken record ... BP picks the Red Sox to win the division ... Red Sox don't

Jan 06, 2011 8:36 PM on Red Sox Regnant?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"when we might jump into the topic of what we can expect as far as player aging curves now that we're in the post-PED era." Be careful here Christina. Suggesting that PEDs might have an effect upon player performance (and aghast, player comps and projections) hasn't been well recieved here at BP. I've long suggested that PECOTA is based on a 'House of Cards' of inflated comps from the 90's and early 00's and that BP's reason for keeping their head in the sand with respect to steroids was to avoid confronting whether their principal database for player perfromance might be tainted. As far as I know, your statement here is the first I've read at BP that visiting the subject might have some merit.

Dec 14, 2010 11:13 AM on Werth and Crawford
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I was ready to crown the acqusition of Adrian Gonzalez as Boy Wonder's finest moment. The Red Sox finally went with plan "A" unlike the past two years when they settled for options more appropriate for the filmimg of a 'MASH' episode than a baseball team. Not only did they get a premium player for yet another overrated, overhyped Red Sox prospect (# 10 in baseball, really) and another player 3 years removed from Hodgkin's lymphoma, they avoided overpaying for the contract year sinkhole known as Adrian 'the lesser' Beltre. Theo was smart to conclude this deal before getting to the winter meetings, as he just acknowledged in the press conference, before other bidders might enter the picture. But as Lee Corso would say 'not so fast'... All of the accolades thrown Theo's way are entirely contingent on that 'goodwill' he cited in doing the deal WITHOUT getting a long term extension signed ahead of time. Does anyone really think Adrian Gonzalez has any reason to value his services below that of Mr. Werth at $18 mil for 7 years? Don't the Red Sox have a history of coming up short in these things for the sake of a few mil? For this to be Boy Wonders finest moment he has to sign Adrian Gonzalez to a long term contract. And with Mr. Werth's signing, that job just got infintely more difficult. So Theo's "A" just becomes an "Incomplete" for now.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

A better way to assess Ron Santo's suitabilty for the Hall of Fame is to ask .... How many 3B were better than him (in the 70 previous years of modern baseball) at the time of his retirement? Or at the time of his first Hall of Fame vote five years after retirement. A quick look at your list should provide the answer. One Eddie Mathews ... and maybe Harmon Killebrew if you consider him a 3B Ronnie even holds his own with Brooksie

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I'm suspecting this series comes down to whether the Yankees make CJ Wilson look like Cliff Lee. The Yankees handled him well in the regular season but were miserable vs lefties down the strech, losing 9 straight games to a lefty starter, before beating Liriano. Girardi seems poised to play both Gardner and Granderson versus Wilson (given Kearns pathetic swing and miss performances) and this could play into CJ's strengths vs lefties as noted above.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The Rays were beaten by a team doing all the things (aggressive baserunning)the Rays have been praised for the past 3 years. BP lauded the defense of the Rays as a big part of their improvement in 2008 (BJ Upton's career record for allowing ground rule doubles over a CF's head notwithstanding) but such a defense of their effort last night is laughable at best. Getting the sure out at 1st and preventing the runner from scoring from 2nd are not mutually exclusive events. To allow this to happen twice in one game (with Vlad for God's sake) after a similiar play during the last week of the year is indefensible. The only remaining question is whether with the Rays going on the cheap will their efforts in the next 5 years more closely resemble that of Toronto than a serious contender?

Oct 13, 2010 4:17 PM on LDS Day Seven Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

How the %&$# did this guy strike out more than a man an inning with this stuff last year in any league above A ball? Seems impossible. Seriously this would make for an anlysis similiar to that of Brad Lidge after he fell off the earth last year. In Brad's case it was how can someone strike out over 9 / 9 IP and be this bad. In Javy's case the exact opposite question applies - how can someone strike out 9 /9 IP with a fastball that hits 88 mph on a good day.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Comprehensive write up. Yankees have lost the last 9 games started by a lefty. They were going to get two of them vs TEX and MINN either way. YES scroll line has Pettitte going in game 2 and Hughes going in game 3. So much for minimizing Hughes HR tendencies in Yankee Stadium. That was the # 1 reason the Yankees needed the home field advantage. The Yanks will be left to hope that Pettitte doesn't come up with the clunker Clemens did a few years ago. If the Yankees lose, it will be, as so often in the past, because their batting with RISP will replicate their 4-36 performance in last weekend's doublehreader versus the Red Sox. This whole setup smells like 2002-2007 more than 2009.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

What a complete pass for the Red Sox organization. No doubt the players put forth a heroic effort in never giving up on the season. Last year the organization decided to try to get buy on the cheap with 3 rehab pitchers, only for it to blow up in their face. This year they went to war with a very old team that was bound to have a high amount of injuries. Did they really think Mike Cameron would play in CF for the whole year? Mamangemet spent $ 100 mil on Matzo man, spent a good sum on Lackey, and resigned Beckett. Any other team would be lambasted for such spending. Thanks to Bill James, the Red Sox tried to mold a team based on defensive metrics. That also blew up in there faces as Beltre was gastly at the beginning of the year and Cameron simply terrible. How about a review of how those metrics contributed to the season? Those same metrics put Cameron in center and Ellsbury in left. There is no LF in the majors where Ellsbury's speed could be as useless. I realize there was some criticism of his routes in CF, but Cameron was just as questionasble in the time he was out there. The medical staff had quite the banner year - sending Pedroia and Ellsbury back out to play and then on to other doctors. Those players themselves questioned the medical staff. And don't limit your criticism of the Red Sox pitching staff to the starting staff and Mr. Papelbon. The bullpen, a construct of the front office, was a disaster. For two years in a row the Red Sox could not even field a major league team in July getting swept by the Yankees last year and Tampa Bay this year. The best job the front office did all year was convincing the fans to pony up to watch this mess. And on top of it all - it was BORING.

Oct 02, 2010 11:12 PM on Boston Red Sox
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Luis Valbuena ... I drafted this guy for my Strato team proving I bought the hype as much as the Indians. Is there a worse player in either league than this guy? To keep running him out there when his batting average never got above .200 is ridiculous. But hey, but batting average isn't everything. Luis is a gift that keeps on giving.

Sep 25, 2010 6:16 AM on Cleveland Indians
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

What will happen again? BP will pick the Indians to be better than they are ... more sure than death hand taxes.

Sep 25, 2010 6:12 AM on Cleveland Indians
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

No need to worry .... the Yanks took care of this tonight. Makes that game last night even more important. The Rays are only 1/2 game behind. Since they took the season serires by winning the last two games the Yanks have to finish 1 game ahead ... which really makes them 1/2 game behind right now. The Rays get 3 games vs SEA (without Felix), Balt, and close with 4 vs KC. The Yanks have 6 with Boston (prob 2 Bucholz starts) and 3 with TOR. They will not have as a highly leveraged situation to win the division as they did the last 2 nights. Kudos to Crawford, Longoria, and Price who came up big the last 2 nights and esentially won the division. The bottom of the 5th with the Yanks ahead 3-1 and bases loaded, 1 out, with the heart of the Yankee order will haunt them through October. The Yanks will have to do it the hard way ... playing at Minnesota with the best overall record,best second half record and nearly the best home record, while the Rays will get TEX at home still wondering if Josh Hamilton will be healthy facing a TEX pitching staff with nearly as many Sept questions as their own. The Yanks will be left to decide if they flip Hughes and Pettitte to keep Hughes out of Yankee Stadium (and taking Pettitte out of his trsted #2 playoff rotation spot). Are they good enough to overcome all of this? Perehaps but they gave away an awful lot in the last two days to make the job a lot more difficult.

Sep 23, 2010 9:02 PM on September Song
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't the easiest way to rest your entire team beating the Rays the last two games and go up by 4 1/2 games with 9 to play? The Yankees blew that chance because they didn't want to play hard and put their best out there for the last three innings tonight. With the rain delay I'm OK with Gaudin OR Mosley, but after getting past one of them and to the 7th in a one-run game, its time to go for the putaway. With Sabathia going tomorrow night, many of those relievers won't be needed anyways. Just not a very good use of your resources in the most leveraged situation.

Sep 22, 2010 9:07 PM on September Song
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Chad Gaudin gives up 2 HRs in the 7th of a one-run game after the Yankees were able to survive Mr. Moseley. No word if Joba and Robertson went home after the rain delay to get a good night's rest.

Sep 22, 2010 8:37 PM on September Song
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"one could be forgiven for thinking that the games were do-or-die, with their outcomes having a strong bearing on which team would play into October and which would be consigned to an early start to hunting season." I agree the games aren't do or die but aren't as quick to dismiss that their outcomes won't go a long way to determining who plays deep into October. 1. The Twins are about 5-20 in their last 25 games at Yankee Stadium including the horrors of last year's playoffs. 2. The Rays have lost 10 of their last 13 games at Yankee Stadium. 3. The Yankees would love to pitch Sabathia and Pettitte in the first two games of a playoff series at home. 4. The Yankees would love to keep Hughes out of Yankee Stadium for game 3 as he has given up 20 of his 25 HRs at Yankee Stadium. 5. As you corerctly pointed out, both the Rays and Twins are two of the best home teams in baseball. Those are all strong trends that are hard to dismiss. While I wouldn't mess with my starting rotation to prevent Sabathia, Price, or Liriano starting in game 1, I wouldn't be tanking high leverage extra inning games by pitching Chad Gaudin (right after he blew a similar game last week) to protect Joba and Robertson. In 2007 BP had a number of articles discussing whether winning the AL East was worth the effort. Every article I recall suggested that both the Red Sox and Yankees shut it down. The Red Sox signed onto the program and the Yankees accommodated them by doing the same. By winning the AL East, the Red sox got several benefits that ultimately lead to their championship. 1. They got to feel good about themselves not blowing yet another 10 game lead to the Yankees. 2. They got to play the first round of playoffs at home against a teram (LA Angels) they had abused in Fenway over the years both in the regular season and playoffs. 3. They got to play the Indians (who had the best overall record) in a seven game series instead of a five game seires. The difference of those two additional games? While both the Yankees and Red Sox were both down 3-1 to the Indians, the Yankees went home and the Red Sox got the opportunity to stage their comeback. The Red Sox then went on to win the World Series after the hottest team in baseball history, the Colorado Rockies, were put on ice for nealry a week due to the ridiculous scheduling of MLB baseball. One could debate whether the outcome would have been the same if the Yankees had won the division, but what can't be debated is that the Red Sox got some great benefits by winning the AL east that ultimately helped them get their championship. And the Yankees were left to deal with the once-in-a-lifetime occurance of the midgies in Cleveland in a short 5-game series.

Sep 22, 2010 7:55 AM on September Song
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Absolutely no consideration of the Boy Wonder's contribution to this mess. Last year he employed broken down pithcers to fill out his staff and this year relied on a number of position players who were due to break down. How about a look at all of those defensive metrics from Bill James that produced this underperforming (at least from a defensive standpoint) effort. And more kudos to Beltre for taking out Ellsbury who the Red Sox, in all their wisdom, put in LF defering to Mr Cameron's old legs. It was those same metrics that put Ellsbury in LF. The heroic effort of the Red Sox players has been completely undermined by the off-season moves of Mr. Halloween. For the second year in a row the Red Sox were not able to even field a team in two crucial series (last year vs the Yankees, this year vs the Rays) that left them getting swept and looking from the outside in for the rest of the year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Does Beltre get any credit (from the Yankee or Rays perspective) for taking out Ellsbury for the year?

Aug 23, 2010 7:11 PM on Handicapping the AL MVP
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"but you seem so deadset that giving up Lackey was "wrong" and that Lackey is better than Haren regardless .., that it started getting ridiculous." That is simply an incorrect inference from what I said. And it is such misrepresentations that I feel compeled to correct. For the 4th time I never said Lackey was better than Haren at any point in the past. I never said Lackey will be better than Haren in the future. I did say a 2009 Lackey (.718 OPS) is better than a 2010 Haren (.792 OPS) in the context of the information available when the Red Sox and Angels both made these decisions. That might disagee with the analysis of Christina, pbconnection, and yourself but it is hardly ridiculous. Quite the contrary, if someone is going to make the case that a .792 OPS pitcher is better than .718 OPS pitcher I think the onus is on them. Perhaps Haren's low SIERA would make a good article showing how all the factors cited by Christina thatlower the ERA to the SIERA. I did make one statement that you obviously disagree with ... "Thirdly, I wasn't trying to predict which pitcher would be better. To the contrary, I was pointing out that anyone who thought this was a good trade was expecting (predicting?) a return to form for Haren." My understanding of your position is that Haren does not need to return to form, that given the secondary peripherals, those numbers will follow on their own. I just don't agree with you unless that HR rate of 1.5 per 9 goes down. That number is just outside that which can be explained by those secondary peripherals. The more global question for me was the schizophrenic ways the Angels spend their money. If letting Lackey (and Figgins) go for financial reasons, then the combo of Kazmir and Haren isn't cost effective. If letting Lackey go was for for talent reasons (I'm sure Scioscia didn't share BP's view of his shortcomings), then not replacing him put them behind the 8 ball this year. I just think they had a plan, it didn't work out, and they are trying to make an adjustment (correction?).

Jul 28, 2010 8:19 AM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"What, do you think I haven't used "feed the beast" or "snibberish" before? I guarantee you, I have before :)" I am well aware that you have used such terms in the past and have chosen to ignore it. But characterizing other people as 'beasts' and dissenting opinions from yours as 'snibberish' is a poor reflection on yourself. "But, you do seem to want to engage in a discussion, so I'll do my best to give you some benefit of the doubt." My initial post and reply was to pbconnection. You chose to draw yourself into the discussion with the accusation of cherry-picking stats. I replied to you to only point out that you were doing the very same thing and to correct the misrepresentations of my views in your comments. As I have said a few times, my major point was that the evaluation of this trade should have included a contrast to the Angel mindset at the time they let Lackey (and Figgins) go on the basis of financial considerations. Christina did not include this point. Brining it up for discussion should not open someone to ridicule. I never said Lackey was better than Haren in the past. Nor did I say he would be better than him in the future. But somehow you seem to be characterizing my comments as such. I do maintain that they are pretty much the same now with both being worse than Lackey at the end of the year. If you chose to accept all the BP stats as gospel thats fine. I don't. Obviously you accept the points that Christina made as gospel. I think its a big strech to make an 800 OPS pitcher a good one. Simple disagreement. No need to start a verbal tit for tat for it. And if everyone accepted everything written here, well, there would be no point to a discussion board would there?

Jul 27, 2010 6:56 PM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Sigh ... I thought you could make a response with without snide (snibberishly, feed the beast) but you could not. Whatever economics favor Haren over Lackey ($ 10 mil advantage this year and $ 2 mil each of the next two years) are entirely cancelled by the mistake of Kazmir ($8 mil this year, $ 12 mil next year, and a $2.5 mil buyout). So going with first Kazmir, and then Haren to fill a position really hasn't been a financial success. If you have a different take on the Angels decision process .. fine. I just think the dominos didn't fall as they expected and are trying to rectify the mistakes. Actually I applaud them for not standing still but fear it is too late. I think the Angels can be immune to some of the financial restrictions that other teams face. So it was surprising that they chose not to fill that hole at the time. They have paid for it dearly in the standings. As far as stats, talk about cherry picking. Haren's HR rate is more than twice that of Lackey. Lackey 2010 10 HRs in 128 IP 0.70 HR/9 Haren 2010 24 HRs in 145 IP 1.48 HR/9 I don't think there are any league or park adjusments that cancel a factor of 2. Once again, I never said whether this was a good trade (from a talent perspective)going forward. I never said Haren wouldn't return to form. I just said that for this trade to be considered a sucess Haren HAS to return to good form. Sounds pretty reasonable unless you think pitchers with a nearly 800 OPS will be worth 10 mil.

Jul 27, 2010 12:38 PM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

First of all, my major point was not whether Haren was better or worse than Lackey, but whether the Angles had reconsidered their decison not to replace Lackey's contribution (with something other than Kazmir) at the time they made that decision. I guess one could argue they were going to do this all along at mid-season, but that wait has probably cost them a lost year. Secondly, I'm well aware of all the sabermetric metrics by which BP chooses to evaluate pitchers. There are plenty of statistics to indicate that Haren may not be the same pitcher of the last few years. The bottom line is that Lackey was pitching like a #2 at the end of last year and Haren is pitching like a #4 now by more than one metric. Lackey 2009 .263 / .316 / .402 / .718 Haren 2010 .287 / .322 / .476 / .792 and both Lackey and Haren are fairly equivalent now Lackey 2010 .285 / .352 / .424 / .776 Haren 2010 .287 / .322 / .476 / .792 Lackey at the end of last year was a better pitcher than Haren now. I would suggest that if you have some metrics that indicate otherwise perhaps you should question them. Thirdly, I wasn't trying to predict which pitcher would be better. To the contrary, I was pointing out that anyone who thought this was a good trade was expecting (predicting?) a return to form for Haren.

Jul 27, 2010 11:06 AM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I thought the thinking was either 'we don't need as many star pitchers and don't need to replace him' or 'Kazmir can be a cheap replacement'. Turns out, given their place in the standings, they find they do need another star pitcher and that Kazmir thing was dead wrong. Sounds like a reversal to me. The point that Angels are buying two additional years in age and saving $10 mil this year and $2 mil in the next two years is well taken. But they are paying that for a pitcher who at the present has #4 starter numbers (4.60 ERA) vs. the Red Sox paying that for someone who actually had #2 starter numbers (3.80)at the time. I agree the two have morphed into the same pitcher AT THIS POINT IN TIME. But at the point the decisions were made, the mid-season Haren is simply worse than the 2009 end Lackey. The people that love this trade willhave the expectation that Haren will return to form. The same expectation lent to the acqusition of Kazmir on a even younger / cheaper level. Seems if they are wrong on Haren, they just repeated the Kazmir mistake on a even higher level.

Jul 27, 2010 8:43 AM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

To what degree is this trade a correction of letting Lackey go. Seems that was on financial grounds. Hard to apply that same logic here. Could such a reversal only imply that the original thinking was just plain flawed?

Jul 26, 2010 8:34 PM on Send Me Some Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

No surprise that the love affair with Josh Byrnes would continue here. One question ... if Byrnes and Hinch aren't to blame for running this team into the ground ... who is? The fact that they worked so closely together is only a further indictment of the two. Kudos for realizing that most of that young talent was pre-Byrnes. But who put together an offense of 3 true outcomes up and down the lineup? BP probably needs to use this team to re-evaluate whether the strikeout is really more harmful than previously dismissed. We can't blame Hinch for the bullpen because of the talent level? Who put the thing together? In three short years this team has gone from playoff competitive to a uttter disaster. And they couldn't even do it on the cheap.

Jul 02, 2010 10:12 PM on Dealing and Decapitating
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

So would a conclusion of this work be that NL teams would be well-advised to put their money to work in the draft (and actually pay for talent at the appropriate draft slot instead of taking a lesser player because he might be more affordable)?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Excellent breakdown of Javy's bewildering performance, not only to Yakee fans, but to White Sox fans - whose opinion of him is only slighty worse. After watching his first two games and I was shocked at the velocity of his fastball and thought the speedgun might be wrong. The batters let me know otherwise. I was trying to imagine how he could have pitched as well as he did last year with such little stuff. This article goes a long way in explaining how.

May 03, 2010 10:37 AM on Bronx Cheers for Vazquez
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Just in case you're going to believe anything you read here just remember ... BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of ELEVEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far. During the same period, one could have taken the anti-BP dumb team picks of NY CHI and LA and been right at least a total of NINE times. Glad to see BP finaly has given up on the Indian's and A's, but those old biases die hard when they come to the Red Sox - a team that has only won the division once over the last decade.

Apr 05, 2010 6:44 AM on Staff Picks for 2010
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

BP has to find SOME REASON to love the Indians this year.

Feb 05, 2010 3:50 PM on Indian Spring
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

What is included in a team's revenue?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

So what is your answer to the problem? We can't hope to catch every person using the lastest drug so we might as well do nothing? Instead I proposed a specific solution to close the current loopholes and put abusers on notice. Exactly nothing will happen until the negotiated barriers to further testing are removed (point 1). No program can be put into place before this so I'm surprised you'd disagree with it. Invoke the best testing methods available (point 2). Are you against using the best methods? The lack of HGH testing is the biggest loophole. Close it now. Might someone design a PED that bypasses current testing? Probably? That's why I proposed number 3. Capture patient samples to test for PEDs beyond current testing capabilities (point 3). Testing samples are already being stored for years for the Tour de France. Could the handling of such samples be improved? Probably. I conceded that it might be retroactively difficult to 'convict' (in a legal sense) someone using such samples but such samples would provide the definitive proof (in the court of public opinion) when someone denies using such designer PEDS in the future. You think players are shaking in their boots worried whether the list of 100 some players will come out? Just think there intrepedation if there samples were still available for testing in the future. Will that solve the whole problem? Probably not, but it will raise the stakes for taking PEDs in the future.

Jan 14, 2010 4:18 PM on Heading Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

To clean up baseball 1. Bud needs to use the ARod mess (and Orza / union complicity)ADD MCGWIRE NOW to leverage the union to reopen drug testing to close some of the loopholes. 2. Include blood testing to address HGH and other possible PEDS. 3. Store blood samples for future testing for new designer steroids. Perhaps it might be impossible to retroactively convict someone for using a new designer steroid, but you could certainly ask a player if he used it, and confirm whether he is a liar or not. At the least it would provide an incentive for players to think twice before trying a new designed steroid designed to beat the system. Point #3 might be especially helpful to anyone thinking about becoming a member of the Hall of Fame.

Jan 14, 2010 10:26 AM on Heading Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

from Tcfatone "I'd be curious to see Nate throw together PECOTA cards for Bonds, Clemens, McGwire etc. following the last season these players played clean to see how far above their expected level of performance they each played once they started using. I wonder if they all fall into a specific percentile of improvement with any consistency. " I've long suggested that BP conduct a similiar analysis to evalaute the benefits of PEDs. And I've always thought the the key was getting enough data points by uncovering as many of the users (and the time of their use) as possible rather than suggesting we just turn the page. As I wrote some time ago ... "BP may be a little defensive / paranoid over the steroid issue because it would make the whole idea of player comps under PECOTA a house of cards. Is the best comp for someone - a clean Don Mattingly or proven cheater like Palmeiro? Which would you use to project that players career? If McGuire turns up on somebody's comp, do we only project him to attain McGuire's numbers assuming he takes as many enhancing drugs as McGuire did? That is the dilemma that BP faces and makes it much easier for them to ignore the problem and plead to turn the page on the subject. Lest all those comps become tainted." Those words are as true today as the first time I wrote it. Except we have another data point today.

Jan 14, 2010 10:21 AM on Heading Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, and it's even more appropriate today after reading all the nearly 300 posts.

Jan 14, 2010 10:12 AM on Heading Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The apologist's Bible ... 1. Steroids have no effect upon perfromance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares?

Jan 11, 2010 6:41 PM on Heading Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -58

McGwire admits to steroids as far back as 1989 - his age 25 season

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The prejudice against Martinez as a DH seems very similiar to that against electing relief pitchers (they aren't real pitchers) into the Hall of Fame for so long. Just as the evolution of baseball made the relief pitcher an important role, MLB created the DH position, and it seems very narrow-minded to exclude the greatest person to play in that role. One of my criteria to elect someone into the Hall is whether that person was ever considerd the best at his position. On that score I'd say Martinez could easily be considered the best at his position, both on an annual and lifetime basis, while Raines was never considered the best OF of his day in any given year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

"JAWS rates Blyleven as the best eligible pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, and one of the top 20 pitchers of all time." How could a man be one of the top 20 pitchers of all-time and make just TWO All-Star teams? Doesn't he have to be one of the top 12 pitchers in his league more than TWICE before one can declare him one of the top 20 pitchers of all-time? On top of that, Bert recieved just 14% of the vote in his first year of eligibilty. In this case, JAWS doesn't add up if it declares Bert one of the twenty best. Just embarrassing.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I was shocked to hear that Bert Blyleven made only 2 all-star teams in his career. Is there anyone else of recent vintage who made so few all-star teams? The other surprise was that Bert recieved 14% of the vote on his first ballot. Certainly those voters didn't think he was worthy of the Hall. Has anyone made the Hall with so few votes on the first ballot? Seems a little bit of a strecth to criticize current voters for leaving Bert out in the rain when some many others have chosen to do so at every step of his career.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"..caused him to be a total void in the lineup" Lowell's OPS for the year was .811 (.841 post All-star). Hardly the void that Cameron and Beltre were for their teams. If you want to cherry pick the home / away stats to make your point, you better do that for virtually EVERY Red Sox player (Batters and Pitchers) because just about everyone was better at home than the road. I'm not so sure that Fenway checks out as mch as an offensive park as your making it to be.

Jan 07, 2010 7:10 AM on AL Outfielders
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Does anyone actually think Ellsbury defense got 35 runs worse (+16.5 to -18.4 UZR), or 3.5 wins worse, in the span of a year? Its numbers like this that really draw fielding metrics, like UZR, into question. And if you don't trust it for Ellsbury, why beleive it for Cameron? Just how many 34 year olds maintain their excellent defensive value? I hope Cameron's glove can make up for that ridiculous OPS by Bay with RISP. But hey, Bay strikes out too much. The only problem is that Cameron has struck out at an even higher frequency. LF in Fenway is the one place in the world you could put a lousy fielder (and teach him to turn around and catch the ball) but the Red Sox chose to shore up their defense at the position at the expense of the offense. And how about the $ 20 mil they are paying to man 3B ON A SHORT TERM BASIS. Sounds smart to me.

Jan 06, 2010 12:37 PM on AL Outfielders
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Agree whole-heartedly. My interest is primarily in the statistics and historical looks at those numbers with respect to how the game has been played. Frankly I've found a lot of the opinion at BP to be terribly biased in an attempt to support 'sabermetric' organizations - the very point Joe was making in his last article. In that sense, Joe's goodbye should be a wake-up to all of the other BP writers.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"You were born in 1974. As you perceive it, how different is managing now than it was then?" Well you usually had to have some experience as a manager before getting a MLB gig.

Jan 04, 2010 2:40 PM on A.J. Hinch
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This article completely ignores the point that Lou Pinella was MIA in controling the Bradley situation (just as he has been remiss in handling Zambrano) and is the real person responsible for the degradation of assets. Lou is paid to manage and all he did after each game last year was throw up his hands as the team continued to spiral out of control. Look for a similar Bradley situation to develop this year and torpedo the Cubs efforts again. And this time you won't have Bradley to blame.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Invoking the Kirk Gibson home run call ... I can't believe ... what I just saw ... "As far as the Diamondbacks and Indians go, I’m open to the idea that I’m systematically overrating "good" organizations, as I seem to miss on those teams to the high side with some frequency. I’ve certainly been accused of bias regularly, and I think there’s a case to be made that I have to be more careful about falling in love with a GM, a front office ... " Have to give it to Joe ... he at least has the guts to confront the issue of BIAS. It just not your numbers, however, that illustrate the BIAS at BP. In the last 5 years BP has picked the Boston (4), Cleveland (4), and Oakland (3) a total of ELEVEN times to win their divisions and have been right exactly TWICE. Overrating 'good' organizations? I'd say so. Just pass the memo to your virtual office mates. Joe your contrarian views were refreshing and will be missed.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

Don't be led into the false sense that Groupthink is dead at BP. Joe is just the one writer who actually believes that a team can improve themselves by spending money. Almost everyone else here is an advocate of doing it on the cheap.

Dec 23, 2009 8:46 AM on The Vazquez Trade
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Here's is Lowell's reply http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/ "I was in constant and open communication about my thumb situation from the moment it happened to every week after," he said." "I've had very open and honest communication with the training and medical staff," Lowell added." ... he disputed the Red Sox assertion that the injury wasn't discussed in the team's end of season exit interview. Wonder if and when Will will have anything to add ...

Dec 22, 2009 7:40 AM on Gone Shootin'
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Here's a question ... was the Red Sox medical staff incompetent in diagnosing the severity of Lowell's thumb injury or Theo just dishonest in trying to dump an injured player on Texas? Here's the organization's defense ... http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/12/how_did_the_sox.html?comments=all#readerComm and some commenters actually have the audacity to blame Lowell for the situation. Hard to beleive that a medical staff so praised by Will could be that incompetent ...

Dec 21, 2009 4:08 PM on Gone Shootin'
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

The reason Bradley didn't last in Chicago was his BAT and ATTITUDE - not his abilty to remain on the field ... Joe said it would have NOTHING to do with his temper or bat ... which was WRONG and Christina was wrong to cite his article as predictive as such ... "Let's repeat that: Milton Bradley has played in 100 games in the field just twice since becoming a full-time major leaguer. That, and not his temper, is the biggest reason to be wary of how this story ends... That's why this signing was a mistake. It has nothing to do with Bradley's anger-management issues, ones that have defined his career. It has nothing to do with Bradley's skill set as a hitter"

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

"But overall, I think he's been close to what was expected." You have pretty low expectations for $ 20 mil per year.

Dec 17, 2009 6:32 AM on Through Six Weeks
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Whatever defensive prowess Cameron might have left at age 36 is almost completely useless playing the small left field in Fenway Park. For God's sake even Manny looked reasonable out there for years. All I read all week was the shortcomings of Bay with respect to batting average and K's. So the Red Sox go out and get someone with an even lower BA and as many Ks. Red Sox fans love to trash people after they are headed out of town and put lipstick on a pig substitute. In signing Lackey, the Red Sox are resorting to the Yankee strategy of paying to cover up their mistakes (Matsusaka). BP railed on the Yankees for doing so but no such matra for the Red Sox here now. All of this makes sense only if Bucholz goes to the Padres for Gonzalez - the one player they really need.

Dec 16, 2009 9:24 PM on Through Six Weeks
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

2nd this comment below

Dec 15, 2009 5:02 PM on On the Swing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Great article ... I've always suspected that relievers had an inherent advantage if putting up better numbers and this article explored some the basis for those differences. Do you have any comment on the role of partial innings upon lowering relievers ERA. For example, the starter that puts a leadoff runner on 1st leading off the 7th will have 3 outs of opportunity for that runner to score (and be charged to him) even if a reliever comes in. On the other hand, a reliever who enters the 7th with 2 outs already and puts a runner on will only have 1 out of opportunity to score that runner. Basically the runners put on by a starter have a better chance to score in 3 outs than those put on by a reliever with 1 or 2 outs. In each case, the IP credited to the pitcher may be the same, but the opportunity to score runs (and have them credited against the pitcher) is greater against the starter.

Dec 15, 2009 4:58 PM on On the Swing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

The Figgins collapse will begin this April. That signing by Seattle will be an even bigger black hole than Beltre ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Lets see ... the Rays traded Edwin Jackson and Akinora Iwamira and got essentially one year of control over Rafael Soriano and the headache of still trying to find a spot for Matt Joyce ... It was just a short time ago that the Rays had an overabundance of relievers that could serve as closer (and were used as such) but now they have turned to the more conventional one-man closer. Does that mean the the much ballayhooed closer-by-committee has failed again?

Dec 14, 2009 8:30 AM on AL Action
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

This summary of the health issues involved in the Mike Lowell / Max Ramirez talks is incomplete and misleading. the holdup on Lowell is not his hip but a problem with his thumb ... for a more accurate report http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/12/13/lowells_thumb_injury_holding_up_red_sox_trade/

Dec 14, 2009 7:52 AM on Jose Canseco
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Will just loves the Red Sox medical staff. Here's another take on how that staff may have just cost them Jason Bay. http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2009/12/break_point_for_bay_sox.html

Dec 14, 2009 7:47 AM on Jose Canseco
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Edwin Encarnacion ... "Seeing Encarnacion ranked seventh right next to his actual performance makes you stop and think. Has the depth at third base disappeared? " No, Edwin is just terrible. Using Edwin as any kind of yardstick for any performance measurement is severely misguided. He is Adrian Beltre without the big year or glove. A sinkhole for any team. Given my comments about Rolen above, you can see where I came down on that trade.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Old man Scott Rolen's line .305/.368/.455/.823 was better than 13 of the 20 guys on the list and his glove is still better than about 15 of them.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"Could there really be anything better for Strasburg’s development than giving him a veteran catcher who understands the game as well as anyone around?" WOW ... On what planet was Pudge ever known as someone who works well with a pitching staff? ... Quite the contrary ... he was roundly criticized for a pitch selection which favored his arm rather than that of the pitchers. He was basically run out of New York (after being sent to the bench) because no one wanted to work with him and the Yankees tolerated Molina's dreadful bat because of that fact. Very misguided assessment ...

Dec 08, 2009 10:04 PM on LABR Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Where else except at BP could you find a methodology that would actually reward a GM for finishing last. "If there's still a piece missing, it's the value that comes with finishing last." By that standard the GMs of the Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays must have been geniuses for 10 years. Did they make some good draft picks? Yes. Did they build their brand with ten years of losing? Look at all the Yankee and Red Sox fans in their stands. I think there was an excellent series of articles on the depreciating value of draft picks in the first round based on lifetime VORP. The article did point out, from a historical analysis, that the talent was front-loaded early in the draft. But not only was the annual VORP number small (due to a large number of flunkies) but the teams on the cheap would only capture a fraction of the lifetime VORP (due to retaining the players for only six years on their careers).

Sep 24, 2009 7:18 PM on Fixing the GM Rankings
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Well when BP picks Boston, Cleveland, and the A's to win their divisions a total of 11 times in the last 5 years and they are right exactly TWICE, can you blame them? No way to sugarcoat a pathetic record.

Sep 24, 2009 6:53 PM on Oakland A's
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

actually this is what Jon Heyman of SI wrote on March 6 regadrding the vesting of the Bradley's third year club option (his $20 million, two-year contract only becomes a $30 million, three-year deal if he plays at least 75 games in 2009, according to the contract filing). http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/03/06/milton.bradley/index.html A lot different than the two clauses currently being cited.

Sep 22, 2009 9:56 AM on Milestone Madness?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 5

The Chicago press was down on Bradley from the day he signed. Talk radio was riduculing him long before any games were played. His past problems were prominently mentioned but they did not even acknowledge his 1.000 OPS last year. Bradley was right about one thing - there was a mike in his face everyday - as they press fought over each other to get THE BLOWUP. Kudos to the Daily Herald for getting the story even if it did take the one writer who Bradley trusted to betray him. Did Bradley play like %$&@ for the first 2 months? Certainly. Did Bradley made some dumb comments and do stupid things? Yes. But please don't defend the press on this one. They were out to play a game of GOTCHA from the word go and the prize was Bradley's scalp while the collateral winnings were numerous print stories and endless radio hours. Game over.

Sep 22, 2009 9:30 AM on Bradleygate?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Could the Cubs have avoided paying the third year of Bradley's contract if they DL'd him instead of suspending him? Accoring to Cot's baseball contracts ... 2011 may become $12M club option with $2M buyout if: Bradley has more than 75 days on DL in 2009, or Bradley is on DL at end of 2009 season with specific injury and not on active roster by 4/15/2010 Do you know the 'specific injury' refered to in the contract and whether Bradley recent problems would have qualified for such coverage if he was not activated by April 15?

Sep 21, 2009 7:37 PM on Milestone Madness?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

BP along with most of the media has consistently misrepresented Bradley's contract as 3 years in length when in fact the third year was an option year which the team could forego under cetrain circumstances. Those circumstances themselves have been reported differently at various times through the year but currently COT's contract site has 2011 may become $12M club option with $2M buyout if: Bradley has more than 75 days on DL in 2009, or Bradley is on DL at end of 2009 season with specific injury and not on active roster by 4/15/2010 The term 'specific injury' isn't defined but there is an angle to this story that IT MAY HAVE BEEN IN THE CUB'S INTEREST TO DL BRADLEY INSTEAD OF SUSPEND HIM. Coverage of that angle might have been more informative that blowharding about the press again.

Sep 21, 2009 7:33 PM on Bradleygate?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

back

Sep 19, 2009 10:49 AM on Twins versus Tigers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

and that after being handicapped by an injured bat for most of the last 2 months

Sep 19, 2009 10:48 AM on Twins versus Tigers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

Save your breath ... don't you know that all those RBIs don't count for anything Morneau might just be the most hated player after Jeter by statheads ... and he'll probably end up with 4000 hits ... but hey its a counting stat

Sep 18, 2009 11:29 PM on Twins versus Tigers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Joe is really confounding two issues here 1-Whether you best reliever should be used to close the game or used earlier in a high-levereged situation 2-Whether Fuentes or Lidge should remain in the closer role after numerous confirmations they &%$&. The Red Sox game last night was a perfect example of why you would keep your closer till the 9th because there were many other tough situations prior in the game that you might have thought were high leverage only to be supereded by the 9th. On the other hand, Fuentes putting 5 runners on base in a row after getting the first two outs only confirmed what should have been apparent many games, if not months, before. Don't let the perfomance of a 'poor closer' enter anywhere into the discussion of whether a 'good closer' should be pitching in the 7th or 9th.

Sep 17, 2009 12:11 PM on Closing Out Closing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"The reason managers keep their best pitcher for the situations that occur in the 9th is simple. They have less chances to get the lead back if they lose it then." "Thus, even if these "key situations" are evenly distributed, the ones in the 9th, over time, are of much higher leverage. It then follows that you want your best relief pitcher in those situations." An argument even the best WXRL'er can understand ...

Sep 17, 2009 11:57 AM on Closing Out Closing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"As always, we'll just have to watch and no that so far, the Yankees haven't blown Chamberlain out." No they just have turned him into an ineffective pitcher (4.50+ ERA) who is a sinkhole on the bullpen. Didn't they have 5 of those type of guys in their starting rotation in years past?

Sep 16, 2009 8:12 AM on September Shutdowns
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

"So, clutch pitching and clutch hitting have both turned up again for the Angels, and while it hasn't been in their usual proportions, it's still been enough to push them past the Rangers ... " This might be a hallmark article here at BP. I'm just not sure many of your fellow writers are on board. The main reason to pick the A's for the division this year was the unaviodable regression to the mean by the Angels. Given the Angels ability to repeat their Pythagorean overperformance (and the fact the A's are just terrible)make that prediction look ridiculous. Most of the sabermetric community have laughed at some of the elements (clutch hitting, importance of closer, small ball, productive outs, managerial input, team chemistry) that have been associated with the Angels teams over the past few years. The sabermatricians are the ones looking for answers in light of a second year of Pythagorean overperfomance that can't be passsed off as mere randomness. Kudos to Jay for putting the subject on the table for discussion.

Sep 16, 2009 7:23 AM on Overachieving Yet Again
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

If the source knew Morneau was scheduled to have a CT on his back on Monday, the source or Will should not have characterized the problem as minor. The problem may have been diagnosed on Monday but the problem was at least serious enough on Sunday to merit a CT on Monday.

Sep 16, 2009 6:46 AM on Western Woes
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

"It's more likely that the inner ear infection is the culprit, as sources say the back problem is minor and that he should be back at first base early this week." "the Minnesota Twins received another setback Monday when a CT scan revealed first baseman Justin Morneau has a stress fracture in his lower back. He will miss the rest of the season." Need new sources?

Sep 15, 2009 7:02 AM on Western Woes
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Why is it that when the Rays acquired Garza and Bartlett for Young it is portrayed by BP in its annual as a piece of brilliance by management that served as springboard for a championship ... but somehow management is not held to the same level of accountabiltiy in trading Jackson for Joyce. The assessment that the team had starting pitching to burn proved to be dead wrong and was responsible for the collapse this year as much as anything else (though I'll agree there are plenty of holes in the dike).

Sep 14, 2009 9:55 PM on Tampa Bay Rays
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

you could add two runs to his ERA and he'd make a better contribution that Matt Joyce ... don't defend the Rays management on this one ... they made a series of bad moves that not only set them back this year but for years to come

Sep 14, 2009 3:49 PM on Tampa Bay Rays
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

"but their future as a whole is very bright, and another forecast for 90 wins or more could very well be in the cards" No doubt BP might come up with another forecast of 90 wins - the real question is whether the team will come close to that mark before they have to tear the team apart (see Indians). BJ saw way too many ground rule doubles over his head this year.

Sep 14, 2009 3:44 PM on Tampa Bay Rays
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

The thought that the Rays had found some blueprint for success was always completely overblown in my eyes. Being God awful for your entire existence to capture a lot of high draft picks and hoping their development coincided with an overperfroming bullpen made for a nice story last year but will never be sustainable. This year the bullpen blew up, we found out the starters were not as good as everyone told us they were, and the front office made some terrible misjudgements. The point about the Rays never being able to build their brand coming off the success of last season is well made. Without doing so, the self-imposed financial limitations will doom the franchise and the Rays can climb back into the hole from which they emerged last year.

Sep 14, 2009 12:38 PM on 11 and Counting
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

The Kazmir trade is only defensible if the Rays know he is hurt and don't expect anyone else to find out. Granted Kazmir has had a terrible year. But if he isn't hurt, isn't the job of the coaching staff to figure out whay is wrong with his mechanics? He's basically turned into Victor Zambrano for which he was traded. Trading someone because of a percieved bounty of starters proved wrong last winter (Jackson) so why would you use that same basis to justify this trade? If Kazmir wasn't a lock after four years with an ERA between 3.24 - 3.49 what would make you think any of these other 4 starters (Niemann Price Shields Garza) is going to project any better? Even if you wanted to trade him, why do so when his trade value, and the market for his services, is at the absolute minimum? According to Baseball America, Sweeney was the Angels #18 prospect and Torres was their #24 prospect. Saying Sweeney is not a 3B (48 erors in 127 games) is generous. With those numbers, you wonder if he can even play 1B. Pitching prospects like Torres are a dime a dozen. It is impossible to believe that you could not get more than that at this year's trading deadline or in this off season. For God's sake. you may have been able to package him with a few prospects for Halladay if you were so inclined financially and wanted to make a real move in the race this year. Alas you may have been entirely correct that the reason is cost. So much for building your brand coming off a championship season. Instead the Rays have chosen to save a few mil and think they are smart enough to find the same penny on the ground and they did last year. If money is the reason, this is only a precusor to a Marlins-like dismantaling in the years ahead.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

I could see why the analysis of trading Kazmir from the Tampa Bay perspective may be a 'work in progress'. Hard to find enough lipstick to put on that pig. I guess a one word commentary might be enough - indefensible.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I hope you like this years Cub team because with those contracts you're going to see the same team for years to come ... so go to the grotto and light a candle that these guys get better ...

Aug 31, 2009 1:29 PM on No Joy in Wrigleyville?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

No you got Matsusaka at 5 years and $105 mil ... so much a better deal

Aug 31, 2009 1:22 PM on Friday Frenzy
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Now if you had claimed the A's should have been above the other losers in BP fav Cleveland I might have been with you.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -14

Boy Wonder's second refugee starter sent packing. Hopefully he won't become yet another player to be paid by the Red Sox (Smoltz 0.82 ERA and Lugo .846 OPS)to perform for others. Throw in all those other sunk costs, and ya know, they really couldn't afford that extra 10 mil for Tex. Good thing Theo had the pitiful Indians bail him out with VMart to end a long line of poor decisions.

Aug 29, 2009 7:11 AM on Friday Frenzy
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Dunn could not play LF with Soriano there and we all saw what Dunn looked like in RF in the WBC.

Aug 28, 2009 11:20 AM on No Joy in Wrigleyville?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

Wrigley is a dump if you spend most of the game under the stands instead of in your seats watching the game ... unfortunately that's where about 30% of fans in some stadiums spend their time

Aug 27, 2009 6:20 PM on No Joy in Wrigleyville?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"the Cubs have been hampered for nearly two years by the ongoing sale of their franchise." Joe, you obviously didn't listen to any talk radio while in town, as this view (also thrown out by Lou Pinella) is being lampooned on a daily basis. Take a look at that OF (Sosa, Fukedome, Bradley) and it's hard to make an arguement that any more available money would have been spent wisely.

Aug 27, 2009 4:44 PM on No Joy in Wrigleyville?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Every assessment of Daric Barton starts "Oakland GM Billy Beane called Barton the best hitter in the minors when the A's acquired him (for Mark Mulder)". Unfortunately that was in 2004 and Barton has never shown enough power on any kind on a consistent basis to even remotely think he could man the 1B position in the major leagues. Considering Oakland isn't going anywhere I guess they are free to retest Billy's hypothesis.

Aug 27, 2009 1:20 PM on Junior Circuit Jumble
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 5

from rototimes ... "Posada only bruised the joint on the ring finger of his CATCHING hand when taking a foul tip off his glove" Hard to put that one "behind your leg."

Aug 27, 2009 9:30 AM on History or Hyperbole?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Great series ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I don't think he even has a strat card ... does your league draft players before they appear in the majors?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Thanks for a comprehensive explanation of the Power Rankings. Perhaps you could provide a link in future posts to this article to limit your need for any further explanation. I would think that the methodology to develop a model which best fits historial data would be completely different than that used to develop a predictive model so I wouldn't feel compelled to alter the Power Rankings to simulate the Power Rankings used by bettors of college football.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I'm aware of the importance of N in statistical sampling. I'm just trying to get an idea why you choose a single season as the comparision basis. Such a choice might be inadequate to compare an individual's clutch statistics (say Derek Jeter's RISP BA in 2009 to 2008) but completely adequate in comparing team statistics (LA Angels in 2009 to every other major league team in 2009). I'll give you an example from Strat-o-Matic. There is a clutch feature which if used would give someone up to an additonal .025 (say 6 chances out of 216) of BA in clutch situtions. Its real and its there on the card. But what statititical test would I need (and neccesary N) to detect it from a mountain of individual and team statititics? I could try a number of statistical tests that might fail and it would be very easy to conclude the effect doesn't exist because I haven't proved it at a 95% significance level. But in fact the result is right there on the card and is real. My point - some very real effects could be very difficult to detect but that doesn't make them any less real. I suspect that the team aggregate stats are more likely indicative of something real thna individual stats because of the N involved.

Aug 25, 2009 1:31 PM on Patchwork
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Why is the time frame for repeatabilty year-to-year? Judgements are made on players abilities on shorter time frames all the time. Doesn't it just matter that the team is repeating now what it did earlier in the year?

Aug 24, 2009 8:55 PM on Patchwork
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I merely asked the question, more so directed at Joe, of "what the maximum difference in wins that could be ignored?" Eighteen make the mistaken charaterization of my position "You mean at what point do Wins become the be-all and end-all of measuring pitcher performance." I never suggested that wins were the be-all just as I would never suggest any single given statistic be given 100% importance. Likewise I wouldn't suggest that any single statistic be completely ignored. I would think that is the more open-minded position than a response of NEVER.

Aug 24, 2009 7:29 PM on AL Awards Quandary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

I asked at what point one would draw the line ... based on your response you would vote for a starter with 1 win over someone with 20 wins? 2 wins? 3 wins? 9 wins? 15 wins? If you'd vote for someone with 5 wins, I'd suggest that you are the one who has adopted a prejudicial closed-minded view.

Aug 24, 2009 2:32 PM on AL Awards Quandary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

What is the geatest win differential between Grienke, Halladay, or Hernandez and Sabathia that could be ignored by yourself. Sabathia 20 Grienke 12,13,14,15 ?

Aug 24, 2009 10:08 AM on AL Awards Quandary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Kudos to a BP writer for acknowledging the performance of the Angels in spite of many difficulties - not the least of which was overcoming the dreaded regression to the Pythagorean mean with 16 additonal losses. As pointed out in another article, the Angels have exceeded their Pythagorean prediction by an average of 8 wins over the last 5 years. The view that "the Angels’ success has as much to do with organizational philosophy." hasn't always been front and center here at BP but usually behind some statititical excuses for why they have overperformed.

Aug 24, 2009 9:42 AM on Weekend Wrapup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Didn't Minnesota do this identical thing last year? overall .279/.340/.408 men on base .298/.367/.443 RISP .305/.380/.446 with the BP take in its annual being ... "Clutch hitting is a touchy subject arond these parts. Its not that we don't believe it exists ... Its that just that, on the basis of extensive research, we don't beleive its a repeatable skill."

Aug 24, 2009 9:11 AM on Patchwork
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Is eddjdatc1 another byline for Will Carroll? If so, why do you feel you need another one?

Aug 24, 2009 8:42 AM on Seeing Red
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Any chance we might get lefty / righy splits in Team Tracker?

Aug 22, 2009 1:37 PM on There He Goes Again
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

Isn't it time we get a BP article telling us how ordinary Justin Morneau is and how all those RBIs really don't count for anything?

Aug 21, 2009 5:34 PM on Patchwork
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

We just saw a post detailing the year-to-year variance in home team advantage. Might the same variance be at work here also to SOME degree? Kind of hard to believe that Ellsbury is more responsible for the Red Sox defensive woes than was Nick Green. Standing ovation to a BP writer for addressing the Red Sox shortcomings this year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Great catch ...

Aug 21, 2009 4:21 PM on A Wagnerian Ovation?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

THEO is God ... he's just having a rough patch putting a 25 man roster together these days

Aug 21, 2009 4:12 PM on Midweek Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The article attempts to incoporate an assumption that all wins aren't created equal. Fair enough. But are all $ created equal? Does a $ mean the same to the Yankees as the Rays?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Jared ... you can rest assure that any success the Phillies have will be in spite of anything you might read here ... you aren't alone in noticing

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

Acquiring a player that has no sense of hitting, whose weaknesses are easily and increasingly exploited by opposing pitchers, and is completely unwilling to adapt is NEVER a good acquisition at ANY price. Suggesting that enduring additional years of such futility is somehow in anyone's interest other than Edwin's is simply misguided.

Aug 20, 2009 6:45 PM on Redemption?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"At third, they're embarked upon the challenge of seeing if Edwin Encarnacion was just a Gap-inflated mirage who can't handle third ..." "So, it's going to involve a lot of faith in Ed-E,..." the suggestion that extending Edwin's contract was the key to making the Rolen deal work for the Jays was as misguided as anything written here at BP ... now after 2 weeks, the Jays have to contemplate a replacement????

Aug 20, 2009 10:07 AM on Redemption?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Lou keeps saying "what do you want me to do?" or " I don't have any answers" in his give and take with the press. If he doesn't have any answers, shouldn't he really go? Lou looks worn out and I'd be surprised if he comes back after the end of this year.

Aug 20, 2009 9:48 AM on Midweek Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

I think that was Dusty Baker talking about Joey Votto

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"The test for statistical significance essentially tests whether there is a less than 5% chance that you would falsely conclude that there is an effect." Alternatively couldn't you have applied a test of significance for the inverse hypothesis (there is no effect)? I realize a 95% confidence level is routinely used for statistcal significance but aren't there a boatload of situations that fit in-between the 5% signficance of the hypothesis and the 5% signficance of the counter hypothesis. And don't some of those situations favor one side or another - just not at a 95% confidence level?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"I say it's an organizational disappointment because I think we've underachieved with the talent we've got," Shapiro said. "Ultimately, we've done that too many times in the last few years. We've got to look to address why our team isn't achieving up to the level of talent that we think should create wins and losses. Not only us but other people within the industry, objectively and subjectively, believe this as well." Never were truer words spoken. Perhaps BP, as part of the aforementioned 'other people in the industry', should do the same.

Aug 18, 2009 2:15 PM on Weekend Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

However, Shapiro told the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes that he wants to stay in his current position, particularly since the underachieving Indians are 50-66. "I definitely feel I have unfinished business as a general manager," Shapiro said. I guess someone has to man the lifeboats with the women and children.

Aug 18, 2009 2:08 PM on Weekend Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Of course the real time to react only starts when the players knows the ball is headed at him. Might that be the real advantage batters have over pitchers. Batters have been better conditioned to recognize when a ball is headed at them (by seeing many more balls thrown at them) compared to pitchers (who have much less expectation and experience seeing balls hit right at them).

Aug 18, 2009 1:39 PM on Piling High
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Time to react - via DVR David Wright had .40 sec (24 frames) from the pitch release Hiroki Kuroda had .35 sec (21 frames) from bat on ball Mike Gonzalez had .40 sec (24 frames) from bat on ball Mike Gonzalez might represent the best case scenario for a pitcher as he cuaght a line drive that happened to take a path very near where his glove ended up after his follow-through. A little harder hit ball, worse form on the follow-through, or different location of the batted ball and he also would have had no chance.

Aug 18, 2009 1:32 PM on Piling High
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Disaster avoided ... ESPN reports all but one or two top picks are signed

Aug 17, 2009 9:36 PM on In the Slot
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

How could the White Sox third order (adjusted for quality of oppostion) be higher than the Tigers? I thought I heard several weeks ago the the White sox would play some ridiculous number of games (50 of the last 70) against teams with winning records at the end of the year. That would seem to suggest that they played many of their earlier games against weaker oppostion (and theoretically lowering their third order winning percentage). Have the last three weeks basically brought their schedule more in line with the norm or have the Tigers played an even easier schedule?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

if the season ended today ... BP would have picked the Red Sox (4), Indians (4), A's (3) a grand total of 11 times to win their divisions in the past 5 years and been right exactly TWICE. hows that for an assessment of BP's prognostication

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

One shortstop crisis .. how about 4 failed attempts to fill the postion a couple of injuries .. how about 5 signings of unhealthy players in the off seson economical spending .. how about a few more years of Drew and the $100 mil sink hole Matsuzaka need I go on ... then I'll refer you to the list of 10 things wrong with the Red Sox posted at the Globe site ... if you're going to write a book and tell us how smart the Red Sox were in winning a championship then you need to balance that with a remotely accurate assessment of what is going on this year - culminating in last weeks performance. Otherwise, the complaints about BIAS will only continue

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Isn't it time to drop 'Boy Wonder' from the genius category given that he could barely field a 25 man roster last weekend? Nearly having to turn to one of the ultimate sabermetic deadheads - Chritian Guzman - would have been the ultimate embarrasment for Theo.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

That person was Mark Littel - he of Chris Chambliss historic homerun fame - selling the NuttyBuddy

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Maybe the differences in payroll with the Mets (same market)are the result of the Yankees investment in developing their brand over 30 years rather than just the past 10. Why do they Lakers have better revenues than the Clippers? BRANDING ... that has been developed over 30-40 years ... Branding is developing and marketing something people desire. The small market teams are already getting a disproportinate amout of national media revenue ... the Nats or Pirates are on one national game a year but get 1/30 of the revenue... the split on national revevue is ALREADY a handout

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

here's the numbers .. Cochrane .897 Dickey .868 Campanella .862 Hartnett .859 POSADA .858 Berra .832 Bench .821 Lombardi .818 PUDGE .809 Ewing .807 Fisk .800 I'm not sure that Posada has gotten credit for being a substantially better hitter than Pudge.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Doesn't Posada's OPS rank quite favorable for catchers? I think the last time I checked two years ago he was ahead of several better known hall-of-famers.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Might the real mistake Ricciardi made be that he didn't float Wells through waivers first to see if Kenny would bite on that given how desperate the White Sox are for a CF? Not likely, but biting on Rios wasn't likely either ...

Aug 14, 2009 7:57 AM on Blame it on Rios?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Any truith to the report that Zambrano aggrevated his injury during batting prcatice? His swings are pretty violent.

Aug 10, 2009 12:17 PM on Big Things
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

The Ortiz press conference was a joke. The player’s association counsel spoke for 15 minute and Ortiz had about 10 minutes of conversation accounting for translation into Spanish. If one wants to rail on the press direct it to the performance of those members in the room of this conference. How about pinning Ortiz down on his story by asking the most basic questions like - what was the name of supplements he took, where did he get them (US or Dominican) and whether a third party provided them or he purchased them himself. This was the first time a representative of the players association was available for cross-examination since the congressional hearings. How about exploring their role for the predicament the players find themselves in currently? The only question was why they choose to step forward now after leaving several other players hanging in the wind. I’m not aware of the court’s logic in keeping the test results under seal. Is it to protect the rights of Barry Bonds in his upcoming trial? Or is it to protect the other 104 people from becoming collateral damage as a result of Barry’s trial. Seems like if its the latter, the union could ask that the results be revealed on a personal basis to be used by the individual to mitigate that collateral damage. But don't bet on the union doing that, as it is much easier to hide behind the smokescreen of the difference between the number 83 and 104 then to get to the truth.

Aug 10, 2009 11:21 AM on Big Things
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I don't think Volquez is a rookie by MLB standards.

Aug 10, 2009 11:06 AM on The Post-Shuffle Shuffle
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I'll reply further only to correct your misrepresentation of my postings. I said "When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean." I also pointed out that "So the BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of TEN (correction ELEVEN) times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far." I said NOTHING about an East or West Coast bias. The last time I checked Oakland was a West coast team treated favorably by BP in the past while the Phillies are an East Coast team that has been treated unfavorably here at BP. So the bias has NOTHING to do with East and West. So if your are going to represent muy position by name, I'd wish you do so accurately. Otherwise, leave my name out of your misrepresentations.

Aug 09, 2009 7:45 AM on Rangers vs. Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Nice cheap shot Richard ... all of my comments have been directed to BP ... and absolutely none have been directed to you by name ... I see that you have not chosen to stand by the same standards.

Aug 08, 2009 1:09 PM on Rangers vs. Angels
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Actually an entire review of the Red Sox decision to sign a walking MASH victims unit in the off-season and the efforts of the Red sox medical staff to keep them on the field would seem to be in order. But it might be pretty difficult to put a positive spin on that one.

Aug 08, 2009 12:53 PM on Out Outfielders
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Is this the same tissue injury Kearns had earlier in his career?

Aug 06, 2009 2:32 PM on Radical?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Well if you don't like my comment, maybe you'll like this comment from Tuck in Sheehan's trade roundup ... "Having had the privilege of watching the Reds every game the last few years, it is obvious that Edwin Encarnacion had to go. Terrible fundamental player, lackadasical and unfocused... exactly what CIN does not need. He won't be a major leaguer in two years." Suggesting an EXTENSION of his contract is really indefensible.

Aug 02, 2009 11:52 PM on AL East Deadline Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -22

"but the fact that they only control Encarnacion for two seasons mutes my enthusiasm for the deal, and unless they use their present-day leverage to sign him to a multi-year extension beyond next year's $4.75 million and an arbitration case after that, it's hard to say how this really advances the franchise's fortunes." The only downside to this is not enough Encarncion ??? Stunning analysis ... Please give me some more COW BELL ....

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

The problem for the Pirates is that if these players ever get good enough to warrant as little as a $4 millon salary, they'll be too expensive and will be gone. The other limitation is that they all better reach their career zenith at the same time (sub salary arbitration). Quite an intersection of career paths. As far as the Indians ... "There was some lack of conviction on the part of management on the team’s ability to contend next year, if we kept Lee and made zero additions in the offseason ... ... We feel we’ve added the talent that will help put us in a position to create an extended run of contention, starting NEXT YEAR and beyond," Wow ... I thought for sure with these trades we'd be spared any BP writers picking the Indians next year ... but according to Mark Shapiro boy was I wrong ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"It is pretty inevitable that BP and most saber-heads would blast this deal...trading 2 younger players plus a guy BP has loved for years for an aging player is always met with disdain." Yeah ... you could have seen this coming from a mile away. BP has been down on Rolen ever since his injury. Last year we heard how Glaus was the better end of the exchange, but now that he's evaporated and Rolen has a decent year, do you think we'd read how the Rolen end of the deal was actually better over the two years? Not here. Instead we are left with the usual statistical litany to convince you that Rolen's year is a fluke. I'm not sure even Rolen at his best could make a difference in the mess in Cincy, but I'm pretty sure if all those pitchers come back healthy in Toronto they'll be wishing they had him back.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

The point isn't Yankees vs Red Sox - its whether the steroids Manny and Big Papi were taking had more to do with the success of the Red Sox than any smarts of their management. One viewpoint embraces the view by BP of the Red Sox as a sabermetric darling while the other runs counter to BPs dismissive attitude towards the benefits of PEDs. If the numbers of Big Papi before and after his positive test aren't the most clear delineation of the benefit of steroids, I'm not sure there will ever be any numbers to convince you otherwise. Those closest to Red Sox Nation, along with several other sources (see www.bostondirtdogs.com) have checked in with their opinions and the suggestion of whether these championships are tainted is nearly unaminous. For those yet who remain unbelievers with respect to steroids - where are you on the list of The apologist's Bible ... 1. Steroids have no effect upon perfromance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares? BP made a nice tidy sum writing a book that told you the Red Sox were smarter than everyone else. Isn't it time that they at least consider that some of that success was fueled by the duping by Manny and Big Papi on all of us?

Jul 31, 2009 11:36 AM on Review and Reset
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

"while those that run counter get buried, ignored, or dismissed." see above

Jul 31, 2009 9:31 AM on Review and Reset
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

So whats the better book 'How Red Sox got smart, won a World Series and set a blueprint for winning' or "How the Red Sox rode two juicers to the World Series and looked smart as hell in doing so?" BP authors made a lot of money off the first one, but I doubt anyone here will be penning the second. As I have said before, facts which reinforce BP views get applauded, while those that run counter get buried, ignored, or dismissed. The truth lies in EMBRACING ALL THE FACTS.

Jul 31, 2009 8:37 AM on Review and Reset
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"I implore you to stop treating each steroids story as an indictment of those who criticize steroid users, instead of an indictment of the people who actually, you know, cheated and profited from it? " STANDING OVATION

Jul 31, 2009 8:22 AM on Review and Reset
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Every Yankee fan hopes the Red Sox decide to keep sending Smoltz out there. They'll take their chances with that BABIP thing.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

How could any article on the Rays ignore that they traded the most obvious solution for their back of the rotation problem - Edwin Jackson - for bust Matt Joyce? Compunding this collosal mistake by now trading Price would rate as one of the worst moves of the season. How would that core look with Jackson in it? The Rays would simply be having their cake and eating it too - solving their rotation problems and keeping their core together. Thr roots to this problem are in the decison of management to trade Jackson. Call it that way.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -9

My disagreement is much more over the editiorial use of the metrics rather than the metrics themselves. When teams that BP feels embrace the sabermetric method, such as the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success it is because they are smarter (not because they are more lucky) than everyone else. When they fall short, its because they are unlucky rather than dumber than everyone else. And we get all kind of statistical handwaving to prove such unluckiness. On the other hand when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we are left with the impression that they 'Blundered to Glory', were lucky, or will regress to the mean (Phillie bullpen last year or Angels this season). When these teams fall short, the result only confirms the BP take that the approach of management is wrong or dumb. So to make it as clear as possible. RED SOX, INDIANS, A's WIN = SMART LOSE = UNLUCKY ANGELS, RANGERS, WHITE SOX, PHILLIES WIN= LUCKY LOSE=DUMB I have tried to point specific instances of where this BIAS is seen (White Sox write up during their World Series year, Phillie write up as champions, prediction of Phillie bullpen blowup last year that never occured, inconsistent treatment of Indian bullpen problems, inconsistent rationale of the Haren / Gonzalez & Smith & Eveland / Holliday / Wallace trade lineage). The loyalty to the Red Sox, Indians, and A's by BP has been pretty misguided in that the BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of TEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far. I will continue to point out the bias in the tenor of the articles here at BP and am sorry if you are offended by that.

Jul 26, 2009 5:35 PM on It's a Holliday Weekend
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

So often I hear or read sportswriters that talk or write as if they don't like sports .... "I was prepared to find reasons to downplay the 18th perfect game in major league history." I'm surprised that you didn't suggest that the BABIP of .000 suggested a regression to the mean long before 9 innings were up and that Buehrle was just lucky.

Jul 25, 2009 11:27 PM on Perfection
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

Quite to the contrary. It is BP that thinks they are so much smarter then everyone else and, when reality doesn't match their predictions, they quickly dismiss it as dumb luck. "When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean." Read this years Prospectus where the championship run of the Phillies is labelled as 'Blundering to Glory'. Where we heard how "all of Gillick's big-ticket signing turned out badly" and lament letting Pat Burrell 'slip away' but now get an analysis of how Raul Ibanez will regress to the mean rather than any praise. Yet we are subject to all kinds of statistical handwaving when things such as the Indian bullpen falters (yet again). This goes on and on and on and on ... here at BP. In this case, the A's (and BP writers) make the mistake of misreading that the A's actually had a chance to win this division. Mostly based on the assumption that the Angels really weren't that good because of various sabermetric beliefs - Pythagorean regression, bullpen / save value, etc Yet despite the fact that the Angels have lost nearly all the benefits of last year's rock solid bullpen, they are still 17 games ahead of the A's. In the case of the Holliday acqusition, the A's left the very tenets thay had been following for years (and whole-heartedly endorsed here at BP). But even in doing this they are still immune from criticism by BP. Now we are left with the explanation that Brett Wallace will be better than Carlos Gonzalez. But are those projections for Wallace any less misguided than those for Gonzalez two years ago when the A's acquired him? The A's talent assessment in the entire Haren-Gonzalez & Smith&Eveland-Holliday-Wallace line has been questionable and looks even worse if evaluated from the prospective of Dan Haren as a starting point. But somehow BP just can't admit that the A's have been wrong on this score long ago and have been just trying to catch up. But the house just keeps taking a little more out as each hand is played.

Jul 25, 2009 9:32 PM on It's a Holliday Weekend
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

On the heels of the Indian's white flag, "the tent of (another BP divisional pick) gets folded up long after it had been knocked over." The hopes of the A's relied as much on the Pythagorean regression of the Angels as any collection of talent they might have assembled over the winter. Even with the nearly complete collapse of the Angel bullpen earlier in the year, such hopes were proven to be a misguided basis for Oakland to embark down a path that was counter to their history. The trade for Holliday was pure folly then as it is now. "A couple of readers have suggested that one way to look at the deal is by deleting Holliday from the equation, and taking it back to whether or not you'd trade Huston Street, Greg Smith, and Carlos Gonzalez for Wallace, Mortensen, and Peterson." ... thats the only way to look at it now and the suggestion that "on that level the A's came out ahead" is typical of the green-tint bias at BP. Lets see ... 3 guys who have actually accomplished something at the major league level for one who might and another two who probably never will. Why don't you ask yourself if the Rockies would rather have Wallace, Mortensen, and Peterson? I suspect not. They'll ride Street's performance to the same playoff hope BP writers had figured for Oakland this year. How about this analysis The trade for Holliday was wrong and this is the best we can do to correct it.

Jul 25, 2009 1:22 PM on It's a Holliday Weekend
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"Here we see that PECOTA, as a stern evaluator, was about half as likely in 2006 to overestimate a player (25 percent) as underestimate a player (48 percent)." Quite an embarassing systematic error which requires some explanation. Any fitted regression model would be expected to produce errors without any bias to the mean - that is - an equal number of players above and below their predicted performance.

Jul 23, 2009 8:31 PM on PECOTA's Strikeouts
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"another method to this Pirates madness ... those "aged" rookies can be flipped for better players and better prospects." This is exactly the same 'musical chairs' that I was talking about and the Pirate managemant has been doing for 17 years and apparently is willing to continue to do so ... Like turning Jason Bay into Brandon Moss and LaRoche the lesser ... extrapolate those winnings several times over and I'm sure you've got a winner. "If the Pirates are looking to contend, not in the immediate future but six to seven years in the future ... " Are you serious? Who do you think is going to buy tickets in Pittsburgh for the next 7 years waiting for this folly? You really expect the Pirate fans to wait 25 years for a team over .500? Especially when they see a team with no minor league farm system and as messed up as the Houston Astros 1 game out of 1st place in the NL Central. I guess the Pirates could go the way of Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays and be absolutely terrible for 10+ years but then they'd have to draft a lot smarter and pay those draft picks in a way they haven't been willing to do so in the past.

Jul 23, 2009 6:26 AM on The LaRoche Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

By the time next spring rolls around (and Wilson and Sanchez are similiarily dispatched) the Pirates will be playing their Indianapolis AAA team in Pittsburgh. And by the time those babes might be any good in 3 years, the 27-28 year old pitchers that fill their roster now will be over-the-hill. And the entire never-ending musical chairs can be repeated with the pitching staff. The only chance the Pirates had of becoming a .500 ballclub, but if only for a season, was to have some semblance of an offense when these pitchers happened to have their age 27 quality seasons at the same time. Instead the Pirates brass will be able to pay their entire roster in a few years time with the pity pay they recieve from MLB. And all the Pirate fans have to hope for is that the current braintrust of the Pirates is somehow smart enough to work a different game of musical chairs. What a pity.

Jul 22, 2009 8:13 PM on The LaRoche Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"Every $$$ given to these guys is $$$ not spent on scouting, drafting, and development. I don't care that the Pirates don't have major league ready replacements for them." Where has all the money saved by dumping Bay, Nady, Marte McLouth, etc. etc., etc (thousand times over) gone ??? To sign quality 1st round picks? NO. Hell its not even necessarily THEIR money. They get more than this from the free agent pool as one of the have nots. If a major league franchise cannot afford $9 for the top two infield positions - SELL THE FRANCHISE.

Jul 20, 2009 8:29 PM on The Weekend Wrap
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Kudos to Joe for admitting that at least with repect to the A's that "expecting more was being blinded by green-tinted glasses." Such glasses must be have been passed around the virtual pressroom at BP many times throughout the years.

Jul 17, 2009 1:26 PM on The Better Half
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 6

Hell ... Mauer is even putting up numbers comparable to Matt Wieters PECOTA projection ... so you know he must be good

Jul 17, 2009 1:16 PM on MauerQuest!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -6

It might be obvious to everyone else that the playoffs last year were BJ's power outlier but not to Joe.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I had Berkmann and Morneau on my NL STRATO team and looked to trade Morneau (only an average 1B according to BP and who needs all those RBIs). Was able to package Morneau, Pudge and a 2nd round draft pick for Holliday and Doumit. Given the projected PECOTAs for this year I thought it might be a good deal Berkman 50.9 Morneau 26.4 Holliday 34.6 Doumit 21.4 I thought I was getting the best player in the deal (Holliday vs Morneau) along with a significant long-term solution at catcher in my keeper league. Well looks like I'm wrong. Morneau is the better player than Holliday despite PECOTA and Doumit will probably never be the player that PECOTA projeced him to be given his wrist injury. At this point I'm hoping Oakland trades Holliday. The last time I specifically used PECOTA to guide my STRATO transcations - moving up to draft Rickie Weeks at #10 overall based on an off-the-charts upside. I guess PECOTA just can't project wrist injuries. And to think I chided another owner for trading Howie Kendrick and keeping Aaron Hill.

Jul 15, 2009 9:08 AM on Rebounders
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

BINGO

Jul 15, 2009 8:38 AM on The Flatliners
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Ahhh ... the article I've been waiting for ... but where is the criticism for the front offices of Oakland and Cleveland that put each mess together? But alas, to criticize the management of these two teams would be akin to self-criticsm by BP of itself given the baptism water BP has poured over these franchises over the years. In a previous post I stated .. "When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean." "I just pointed out that the assessment of the Indians braintrust and game plan in the past 5 years by BP has terribly off base and perhaps that would have made a more appropriate subject." For God's sake ... how successful can an approaach be when "Wedge has been at the helm for seven years, while the team has finished above .500 just twice" Year after year, BP praises the methodology of these teams yet they continually underproduce. As we've now undergone about three iterations of Shapiro's rebuilding, isn't it about time to look within rather than blaming statistical vagrancies for underperformance. Two winning years in seven doesn't sound like an endorement for the methodology or approach adopted by the Indians and endorsed whole-heartedly by BP.

Jul 15, 2009 8:36 AM on The Flatliners
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

As far as the Schwarz article, I've always be very skeptical of any of the advanced fielding metrics adopted as gospel here at BP and have commented that until we get someone to measure the movement of the ball and player in real time we won't have anything. Seems that day is just around the corner .... "A new camera and software system in its final testing phases will record the exact speed and location of the ball and every player on the field ..."

Jul 10, 2009 10:17 AM on Met-astrophe?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"In one take on Manny's situation, here's one from Mike Celizic with which I completely agree. ... On the other hand, I completely disagree with John Fahey's position, though I respect it." ... wouldn't expect any more from you Will ... your track record is well-established

Jul 09, 2009 12:27 PM on Rewind and Review
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

"and Morneau certainly doesn't get any credit for anything" especially here at BP ... it's as if every RBI he gets is actually a negative stat

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Not only are these two teams not going to win their divisions, but they are going to finish behind Kansas City and Seattle and a host of other teams ridiculed here at BP. These two picks aren't just bad ... they are embarassing and that only half the problem ... the other half is that BP's BIAS leads them to pick them (wrongly) just about every year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Those people are already at home on-line at Tribe Forum calling for Wedge and Shapiro's heads

Jul 06, 2009 7:19 PM on Bombed Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"There's no value in shutting Grady Sizemore down." What's the value in playing him in a lost season?

Jul 06, 2009 2:50 PM on Bombed Out
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

not exactly Jason Bay numbers, is it now? I can't beleive it - another Pirate fan willing to wait 3 years - again and again and again .... Those who don't know history are bound to repeat it ... and the Pirates are exhibit A.

Jul 06, 2009 3:16 AM on Whining
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

When the Rays dump Young for Garza it's a good trade ... but when they give away Jackson for Joyce its just clearing a spot in the rotation ... no it isn't ... its a bad trade

Jul 05, 2009 8:38 PM on AL Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Hey how's that Brandon Moss working out?

Jul 05, 2009 6:00 PM on Whining
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

No special mention of the weekend showdown between the A's and Indians ... two of BP's picks to win their divisions ... hey someone has to win

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"One of the more arrogant positions I hold is the idea that just because you have or had the talent to be a major league player, it doesn’t necessarily follow that you have the talent to evaluate players." Good thing we don't judge BP's ability to evaluate talent based on 10 of 12 writers picking the Cleveland Indians to win their dvision. Jack Wilson might just be having a better year than that pick ....

Jul 03, 2009 5:30 PM on Whining
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Joe ... falling on your sword for Lastings Milledge ... there are better wars to fight ...

Jul 03, 2009 5:27 PM on Whining
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Great story on the failure of the Indians ... one not to be written here http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4293864 If this comes as any consolation to beleaguered Tribe fans, Shapiro is convinced the picture isn't as grim as April, May and June make it appear. "I truly believe in my heart that we're going to be back in the playoffs again in the next three years," Shapiro said. Well one thing is for sure ... BP will pick the Indians for the playoffs even before Shapiro will ....

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

This same sort of interpretive vagueness is what pervades many of the fielding metrics.

Jun 26, 2009 5:36 PM on Much Ado About Liners
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"While general manager Neal Huntington is a sabermetrics guy at heart, and a believer that power and patience is what makes an offense tick, he is being forced to sing a different tune because of the makeup of his roster." Has Neal already been Piratized? "We love power, but we believe in the bat over power. We believe in the base hit over power." Hey its AVG not OPS .... Following the long-time company line, instead of breaking from it, only guarantees continued failure.

Jun 25, 2009 8:15 AM on Mid-Week Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

John "Fehr has always been in control of the MLBPA, and he had a way of keeping dissident players in line, including never holding any private votes to determine such matters as whether or not to strike. His preference for a show-of-hands vote ensured the constituency would do what he wanted by way of peer pressure." Joe "Despite his title and his visibility, the truth is that he is simply the public face of the thousand-odd members of his union. They vote. They have meetings. They offer opinions. There would be no way for Fehr to impose his will on this group..." Thank God (large G Joe) someone at BP can post an opposing opinion to Joe other than all the commentors on his articles.

Jun 25, 2009 8:01 AM on Mid-Week Update
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Does PECOTA ever predict an over-30 player to have a year better than the one before? If so, just how frequently does it do so?

Jun 25, 2009 6:36 AM on What's Eating A-Rod?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

BP should be very happy with the comments feature as it most certainly has increased the number of page views as well as advertising revenue. In the past someone might read an article once - but now they might return many times to post comments and review replies to one's post. All in all - a good thing for BP.

Jun 24, 2009 5:54 AM on Giving Don Fehr His Due
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

NBA and NFL ticket prices have nothing to do with the affordibilty of taking a family to a game or visiting a ballpark multiple times in a year. Gong to a ballgame is now elevated to being a 'special event' rather than a typical occurance.

Jun 23, 2009 2:25 PM on Giving Don Fehr His Due
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

So Manny's suspension is from MLB, not minor league baseball? Could he have played in the minors for the entire length of his suspension? Is he playing in the minors without pay? If so is any injury incurred at his liability? Doubt it. What a joke.

Jun 23, 2009 12:53 PM on Life Without Manny
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Andruw Jones joins other PECOTA whipping boy, Juan Pierre, in surprising most. Say it ain't so.

Jun 23, 2009 9:25 AM on Rising and Falling
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Now sure, if we want to get into theoreticals, you could open up left field for a Hoffpauir/Fox platoon by getting serious about putting Alfonso Soriano at second base, ..." Before getting that desperate, how about playing Bradley in center and Fox in the OF. Seems like a much better DEFENSIVE option than playing Soraino at 2B. Bradley has actually played CF fewer moons ago than Soriano at 2B and Fukodome is no Wille Mays - especially if his bat continues to disappear.

Jun 21, 2009 6:14 PM on NL Central Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Great point ... but then this has to do with someone's makeup ... and we know how many points that scores here.

Jun 21, 2009 5:35 PM on Conquering the Cubs
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"One could make a strong case that Bowden left Acta with no talent before skipping town ..." Understatement of the Year

Jun 20, 2009 8:48 AM on Dugout Turnover
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I assume you'd find the standings on the Green Monster equally 'cheesy'.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

and so we should place some space-age absorbant material covering the ivy of Wrigley Field ... maybe Soriano might not be afraid to come within 10 feet of the wall then ... why not just move the fence back to Polo Ground distances if you want to insure 100% safety ... get real

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I heard the Angels and Yankees might be interested ... for these teams, along with the Cubs and Rays, the better fit is Pedro as a RELIEVER.

Jun 18, 2009 8:56 PM on A Pitch for Pedro
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Actually I'd view it as a repudiation of all those that want to just 'turn the page' or 'close the book'. I've never understood, from the point of scientific curiosity, why one would close the book when you don't have all the answers. Those who hope to further the understanding of the problem should instead be embracing any and all new information that comes forward - regardless of source. Anyone who wants less, not more information, is simply a poor analytical thinker.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

this sounds like something the 'enlightened' Keith Olbermann would say ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

and awaiting judgement day ... Rodriguez, now with the Houston Astros, tied Carlton Fisk --a Hall of Fame catcher also nicknamed "Pudge" -- when he caught his 2,226th game Tuesday night in the opener of an interleague series at Texas. Rodriguez set the record on Wednesday.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

straight from the apologist's Bible listed above ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

The apologist's Bible ... 1. Steroids have no effect upon perfromance. 2. The effect of steroids can't be quantified. 3. Even if the effect of steroids could be quantified on an individual basis, there is no way to quantify the effect across MLB. 4. Even if we could quantify the effect across MLB, the numbers of users is so small that its not worth worrying about. 5. Even if the numbers of users was large enough to make a difference, both pitchers and hitters were users, so the effect is a wash to the game. 6. Even if steroids did have an effect on the game, isn't it better for the game if we just turn the page and move on? 7. Who Cares?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -8

Actually only 32% of the 135,000+ people responding to a current ESPN poll are in agreement with you in selecting Who Cares.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

Just wish I had another 102 names to add to your list.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

A lot easier to say 'move on' than wonder if the underlying assumption (PECOTA) regarding your statistical analysis is flawed.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Anyone who might want to use 1 of the 104 PECOTA comps ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

1994-2006 HR leaders Sammy Sosa 518 Barry Bonds 512 Manny Ramirez 468 Alex Rodriguez 464 Jim Thome 462 Rafael Palmeiro 437 Be a believer ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"Studies have shown that the difference between a strikeout and other forms of out is tiny, on the order of a hundredth of a run, in no small part because contact can lead to double plays, which are horrible for an offense." How does this square on the pitching / defense side of the ball where a strikeout is a valued commodity because it takes the need for good team defense out of play?

Jun 16, 2009 4:07 PM on Feeling the Breeze
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

So are you willing to credit the Rockies improvement to the managerial change? Seems like quite a blind test. Same team / different manager. What is the statistial chance that the two events are independent? We know how loathe you are to attributing player performance to player makeup.

Jun 15, 2009 5:45 PM on Rocky Mountain High?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting article especially in light of another closer that had a career year last year but has been giving up HR at an amazing rate this year while also striking out more than a man an innning - Brad Lidge. Joe Sheehan, a few days ago, was dismissive of the difference in Lidge as both ends of the bell curve. But Marc has dug into the numbers a little more to suggest that the loss of 1.5 mph on both his cutter and fastball represents a lose in performance for Mo that might explain his higher line drive and HR rate. I asked at the time why Changes in the performance of some players (Lidge / Joe) are dismissed as playing over their heads with a regression to the mean ... while others (Rollins / Marc) recieve a level of scrutiny that assumes a real change in performance level ... Personally, I'm more likely to believe a true change in performance. Lidge appears to be pitching away from contact (trying to get guys to swing at pitches in the dirt) while Rivera is trying to throw perfect strikes (with his good control - 28 K / 1 BB before issuing the intentional the other day) and maybe getting too much of the plate on the HRs. Perhaps both need to alter their patterns a little.

Jun 14, 2009 5:42 PM on Mariano Rivera
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Actually the NFL and MLB drafts are more similiar than one might think. Both uses a slotting system to establish bonuses and pay scale. The numbers are just different by an order of magnitude. The NFL players take a hit on the back end (no guaranteed contracts) while most MLB draftees defer their payday for 6 years.

Jun 14, 2009 4:11 PM on 2001 in review
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Bradley 2009 $4 mil bonus $ 5 mil salary 2010 $9 mil salary 2010 $12 mil salary from the Cub Reporter.com ... Jon Heyman at SI claims to have seen Milton Bradley's contract, and says the clause that would automatically kick-in the third year is that he needs to spend fewer than 75 days on the disabled list in 2009 to guarantee the full amount. When it was first reported, Wittenmyer said it was a multilayered set of clauses, so I'm guessing the wording and legalese is a little more complicated than just spending less than those 75 days, maybe there's something about it not being due to a specific injury. I don't think it is entirely clear what option / cluses cover Bradley's third year but I've seen repeated reports 9not here at BP) that some clause exists.

Jun 12, 2009 2:28 PM on The Untradeable?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I agree that both smart team construction AND statitical variation can lead to both success and failure. The problem is that when BP is right (esp with repect to the Red Sox, Indians, and A's) the reason is attributed to team smarts. But when BP is wrong (see White Sox and Phillies) a long and convoluted statistical analysis is on the way. The regression to the mean argument seems to be inconsistenly applied (see Ibanez vs Beltran and Wright). Changes in the performance of some players are dismissed as playing over their heads with a regression to the mean ... "It takes a season, even more, to determine if changes in a statistical profile, or the observable changes in approach that create that profile, are short-term or long-term in nature." while others such as Rollins recieve a level of scrutiny that assumes a real change in performance level ... "The other Phillie who's well off his game is Rollins, and as Marc Normandin wrote last week, the problem seems to be in his approach, which has become pull-happy from both sides of the plate and is showing the signs of impatience that he'd left behind in the past few years." The record of the Mets is not evaluated in terms of the overperformance by Beltran or Wright but the record of the Phillies is dismissed on the basis of overperformance by Ibanez and an unliklely improvement to the mean by Rollins. This inconsistency is why people view a BIAS in articles such as this.

Jun 10, 2009 8:45 PM on Phillies at Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Rickie Weeks

Jun 10, 2009 8:15 PM on Phillies at Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

"Think of player performance as a bell curve—Lidge was far to the left last year, and he's far to the right this year. Same guy, same basic skills, but this is the range of performance that's possible for a reliever of his ilk." The times I saw Lidge this year he looked to have completely abadoned his fastball - almost afraid to throw it. I saw 10 sliders in a row at times. He's not the same pitcher last year.

Jun 10, 2009 8:08 PM on Phillies at Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

How many more years could Randy Johnson pitch as a LOOGY?

Jun 10, 2009 8:02 PM on Mid-Week Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

"The consistency of the consensus picks is clear, and I'll grant you that devoid of context, those results aren't flattering. However, evidence of bias isn't clear without context ...." I guess I better take any concession on this point I can from a BP writer I can get. The context of the BIAS is provided by the very articles I read here every day. As I said ... "When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean." Would you like me to point this out each time I see such an article? For God's sake we got a book about 'How the Red Sox got smart and won a championship' but no such penning about the White Sox or Phillies. All we had to read last year was how the Phillies would regress to the mean (esp the bullpen) and crash and burn (along with the shortcomings of Ryan Howard) not how they were smart enough to win a World Series. The White Sox were ridiculed on their way to a championship (gosh they never would have made it there without all those HRs). Here we get an article about how the Mets need fixing (3 games out) because presumably they haven't been or aren't smart enough and need the help of the collective BP braintrust. I just pointed out that the assessment of the Indians braintrust and game plan in the past 5 years by BP has terribly off base and perhaps that would have made a more appropriate subject. But the failure of the Indians as you laid it out is due the the vagrancies of PECOTA instead of an admission that their game plan might not be what most here at BP have it cracked up to be. I agree that both smart team construction AND statitical variation can lead to both success and failure. The problem is that when BP is right (esp with repect to the Red Sox, Indians, and A's) the reason is attributed to team smarts. But when BP is wrong (see White Sox and Phillies) a long and convoluted statistical analysis is on the way. So I guess I could point out when I see that BIAS in articles as I see them and that is exactly what I was doing here.

Jun 10, 2009 3:58 PM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Sorry - 2 out of 11 for .181 below Big Papi's .197

Jun 09, 2009 9:55 PM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

OK Here are the consensus picks by the BP staff for the AL East, Central, aand West for 2005-2009 2005 Boston Minn Oak 2006 Boston Clev Oak 2007 NY Clev LA 2008 Boston Det/Clev(tie) LA 2009 Boston Clev Oak So the BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of TEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far. 2 out of 10 - pretty pathetic I could have taken the anti-BP dumb team picks of NY CHI and LA and been right at least a total of SIX times. The BIAS is clear as are the results.

Jun 09, 2009 9:53 PM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

I agree that the "WHY we made (certain picks), is the far more interesting part." Because the WHY reveals a certain groupthink that pervades BP and shows in its annual picks. Whether that groupthink has its origins in personal preferences or PECOTA is hard to tell. I seem to recall a BP article that pointed out PECOTA picked the Red Sox to win an avergage of 5 more wins than their actual record over a period of time. When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean. It would be interesting to determine how many BP writers have picked Boston, Cleveland, and the A's to win their divisions over the past ten years and compare that to the actual numbers of division crowns. I suspect we may have found a statistic smaller than Big Papi's batting average.

Jun 09, 2009 10:38 AM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Gardner and Cabrera played very little together (especially in the first month) - Swisher's hot bat coming out of the gate kept him in there nearly all the time. I'm not sure what metric you're using for ARod's replacements, but at least 2 games were lost because of bad play at 3B.

Jun 09, 2009 9:46 AM on The Rising
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"what's the sense in continually reloading when you never shoot?" Best line I've read here in a long time ...

Jun 09, 2009 9:39 AM on A New Age of Reason?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

I'll take back the above comment given that Will and Christina were the only 2 of 12 BP writers not to pick the Indians for the division - but good luck with those White sox picks ...

Jun 08, 2009 7:26 PM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

I assume that with all the suggestions about the Mets turning to Cleveland for a fix - that the writers here at BP have given up on their preseason pick of the Indians for the AL Central ??

Jun 08, 2009 7:18 PM on Fixing the Mets
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

AL East awaits John Smoltz

Jun 08, 2009 7:09 PM on The Sixth Tool
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
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Yes ... its a great place to WATCH the game ... unfortunatley I'd bet that 20 % of the people at any game aren't watching the game but walking around the concourse of today's stadia. And the new parks have gone to great measures to make the people comfortable when they aren't WATCHING the game.

Jun 08, 2009 6:59 PM on Getting Positive
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Yankees 5th in Defensive Efficiency ... how could this be possible with BP whipping boys Jeter, Damon, and Cano still in place? Tex must be covering 2/3 of the right side and pciking throws with the wing span of Mutombo.

Jun 07, 2009 2:04 PM on The Rising
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Good point ...

Jun 05, 2009 4:42 PM on Day to Day
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
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"In other words, the Pirates might finally be getting better..." The only chance the Pirates had was that their starting pitchers, all of which have shown the ability to pitch in the majors at different times (05' Duke, 07' Snell, '07 Gorz, '08 Maholm) could somehow find the ability to repeat those singular performances AND the team would have some semblance of an offense when that moment occured. Part 1 occured to some degree coming out if the gate this year and many of the pitchers credited the new pitching coach. Any chance for Part 2 went out the door with the trading of Bay, McLouth, and the injury to Doumit. I don't understand how the contribution of McLouth to the next great Pirate team, presumably 2-3 years from now, can be dismissed when all the pitchers (Maholm, Snell, Duke, Gorz, Ohlendorf, Karstens, Burnett) are exactly the same age (26-27). And even less likely than McLouth to project any kind of career 2-3 years down the road. You are so sure McLouth has peaked, but want to hang your hat that some of these pitchers will progress and still be any good when these 'up and coming prospects' (McCutcheon, Tabata) hit the stage. I'd argue that the window for any Pirate greatness is SOONER RATHER THAN LATER when these pitchers are at their peak year - not when they are 3 years older. And consequently the best time to have an accomodating offense would have been with Bay, McLouth, Doumit rather than their replacements three years from now.

Jun 05, 2009 11:47 AM on The McLouth Trade
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
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OK ... Here's the translation Joe would have you believe that the Pirates all of a sudden got as smart as he is because they just recognized some fielding metric that says Nate McLouth is a piece of crap ... when in fact the Pirates are just making the same stupid moves they have for the last 17 years ... "They traded a player at or near the peak of his value, whose useful career would not extend into their next run of success ..." NEXT RUN OF SUCCESS ... you have got to be kidding ... there will be no next run of success just as there hasn't been one in the last 17 years ...

Jun 04, 2009 8:49 PM on A New Age of Reason?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Bashing Gold Glove as a metric is more important here at BP than bashing teams that are continually rebuilding on the cheap. Acceptance of the path taken by San Diego, Pittsburgh, and to a lesser extent, Oakland, should be the real outrage. Pittsburgh has been going through a host of OF to find their CF in the past few years. Now that the find him and sign him to an incredibaly reasonable contract (even better on the age / dollar curve than Bay), they get rid of him to start the process all over again - by the author's own admission "To put it another way, he could be their next Nate McLouth." Cleveland was successful in the 90s locking up players before they became free agents. Pitttsburgh obviously has decleared, with this trade, that they can't even field a trade to that standard. And Oakland was getting rid of players even as the approached ARBITRATION let alone FREE AGENCY. Isn't it time for these franchises to find new ownership rather than continuing the charade? That should be your real outrage Joe - not demeaning a player that worked very hard for every achievement he's garnered because you think he got one you think he didn't deserve.

Jun 04, 2009 12:26 PM on A New Age of Reason?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

You and 10 of 12 BP writers who picked them to win the division this year and just about every year ... "so the question may more properly be whether or not Eric Wedge will ever silence the seemingly annual questions about his management of the unit." could read "so the question may more properly be whether or not BP will ever silence the seemingly annual quaetions about their overestimation of Indian talent".

Jun 03, 2009 1:33 PM on AL Central, Plus
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 6

All I did was contrast your opinion "Their "Frankenstein" fifth-starter pitchers—an expected combo of Brad Penny in the first half, Smoltz in the second half, and Clay Buchholz backstopping them both—ARE ALL HEALTHY AND EFFECTIVE at the same time." with that of Foxsports ... "FOXSports.com reports two RIVAL scouts said Boston Red Sox SP John Smoltz (shoulder) struggled during his rehab start with Double-A Portland Tuesday, May 26. 'He's not the John Smoltz we all know and love, that's for sure,' one scout said. 'That fluid arm action he had, it's kind of restricted. He's kind of pushing the ball. You could see the shoulder is not 100 percent.' Smoltz was throwing in the range of 87 to 90 mph. One scout said Smoltz's velocity dropped to as low as 85 mph in the third inning." Sorry if you feel that pointing out a contradictory opinion constitutes trolling ....

Jun 01, 2009 7:00 PM on Treading Water
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

not everyone agrees with your assessment of Smoltz .... While initial accounts seemed pretty positive, Foxsports.com has a different angle, quoting two major league scouts who weren’t impressed with the future Hall of Famer’s stuff. "His velocity was 87 to 90 mph,” one scout said.

Jun 01, 2009 11:08 AM on Treading Water
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I new I could count on BP for some good ole McLouth bashing. If Nate was actually positioned in straight-away CF, I'd agree with you but he was positioned in RIGHT-CF. Perhaps with both of them shading the right side, it was really former Red Sox golden boy Brandon Moss they BOTH were covering for.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Groupthink ... 10 of 12 picked Cleveland 8 of 12 picked Boston and amazingly 6 of 12 picked Oakland but you can't prove anything with numbers no can you?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

10 of 12 BP writers picked Cleveland to win the AL Central as they do every year. At 9 1/2 games out is it too early to declare that prediction wrong or should we wait until the first white flag trade from the Lake ....

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Actually Koskie fell over backwards trying to catch a foul ball and hit his head. Didn't look as bad as it turned out.

May 21, 2009 2:00 PM on Abuse
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I haven't chosen to make sabermetrics my profession and accept compensation in the form of subscription fees, on-line advertising, and book deals, so I really feel no compulsion to do the work of those that have chosen that profession. I do know in my profession, if I had chosen to ignore new data which questioned the very assumptions of my theory, I'd be subject to criminal indictment. From the standpoint of scientific curiosity, I'd think BP would be at the FOREFRONT, ahead of all others, at trying to undersatnd how a major issue (PEDs) would affect a fundamental underlying assuption (PECOTA). I don't have to be an expert on the subject to question why BP isn't displaying the scientific curiosity of 'wanting to know' but instead has ridiculed other sources and advocated turning the page. To me that is contrarian to what a good scientist does in his analytical thought.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
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JayhawkBill ... fanatastic analysis ... the only problem is that you are doing the analysis that other BP writers should be doing if they only could get their head out of the sand. I've repeatedly posed the question of how valuable PECOTA projections can be without knowing whether the player used PEDs. Fortunately the identification of users are becoming more common and make analysis of your kind more possible. As a start, how about using PECOTA projections for Barry Bonds from the mid-90s to estimate the number of HRs he should have hit and compare it to the number he eventually got. As the number of users become larger, the problem is simply impossible to ignore.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Any chance that the defense of Hinch here at BP is because he was anointed by the sabermetric loverboy Josh Byrnes?

May 20, 2009 7:07 PM on October 29-November 5
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

the play from Mauer's perspective ... "He's about as fast as they get on the bases," Mauer said. "As soon as I got to the ball, I remembered who was at second and thought I'd fake and maybe have a chance to throw him out at third. I didn't really think I'd have to race and beat him home." So he was thinking about 3B not home ....

May 19, 2009 9:28 AM on The Play
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

If 40 ABs aren't enough, how about 419 ABs last year of .219 - the real outlier is his April performance this year. The Yankees have been roundly criticized for not manufacturing runs. So now given two opportunities to do so - both of which would have turned out successfully but for Mauer's astute play - would only prove 'you're damned if you do' and 'you're damned if you don't'.

May 18, 2009 8:53 PM on The Play
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
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So are you saying that someone who is listed on a batting order but doesn't bat can be replaced without penalty? There was no DH listed on the original batting order - only two 3B. Actually the home plate umpire should have not accepted a lineup without a DH and that may be why he allowed Longoria to re-enter. Theoretically Longoria could be infered to be the pitcher from the original lineup and was replaced as soon as Sonnanstine took the field. The other take would be that the lneup did not include a DH thus Sonnanstine ha to bat and the only possible place to bat was the second 3B position that didn't take the field. I'm pretty sure this was unchartered waters here. I wonder if the positions listed on the batting card even matter - other than the designation of DH. If the positions listings do matter then the umpire should have not accepted a batting order without a DH or pitcher.

May 18, 2009 8:41 PM on The Play
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

DELGADO to have surgery and will be out 2 months

May 18, 2009 3:40 PM on Abuse
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

WEEKS out for the year

May 18, 2009 3:29 PM on Abuse
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Seems like if you want to take someone to the woodshed today it should be Joe Maddon for filling out his lineup card incorrectly and getting 3 ABs from Andy Sonnanstine instead Evan Longoria. I'm still not sure how Longoria was able to re-enter the game given that he was on the original line-up card and should have been considerd as having been replaced by Sonnanstine as soon as he took the mound. Does anyone know if an AL lineup card includes a separate listing for the pitcher besides the 1-9 batting spots?

May 18, 2009 2:14 PM on The Play
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Swisher was hitting half a Mendoza for the month of May (5-42 .119). The only good thing about having him hit away would be that he wouldn't hit into a DP since he's struck out in 19 of those 42 ABs. Bunting might have been a questionable call, but hardly a terrible one, given the above numbers. The most questionable part about the 9th inning bunt wasn't the BUNT, but why Gardner didn't steal second BEFORE the bunt, so he could have gotten to third with one out. I'll agree that Brent Tomko can't be the answer given any question but it just shows how desperate the Yankees are for any reliever other than Mariano. This relief corps, which you thought was good (probably along with Brian Cashman) has been just dreadful at every turn. Blaming Girardi for their lack of performance at every oppotunity is misguided.

May 18, 2009 1:39 PM on The Play
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

another view from former Diamondback's pitching coach Bryan Price who resigned upon Bob Melvin's firing "A.J. has worked hard to get his credibility in the business in that [player-development] side of the game, but he doesn't have any credibility between the lines as a manager," Price said of Hinch, who became the youngest manager in the majors since Eric Wedge was hired by the Cleveland Indians in October 2002. "That, for me, just wasn't going to work."

May 18, 2009 12:22 PM on October 29-November 5
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -5

Will ridiculing someone who differs with him on steroids ... whats new?

May 17, 2009 8:58 PM on Game Four
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Yes but not as observant as the comment by irablum

May 14, 2009 9:06 AM on Riding the Horses
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

I know if I had chosen to make sabermetrics my career, I'd want to consider as much information from as many sources as possible rather than ridiculing them. As someone trying to understand the sabermetric implication of PEDs, I'd want that list of 103 users to be published and leave all the excuses to labor reps, lawyers, and those complicit in the MLB offices. BPs position should not be to represent the positon of those groups but should rather be to accept information from as many sources as possible rather than advocating 'turning the page.' The identification of users and the time they started using is the first step. If Debbie Clemens can help on that, I'm going to accept it. If a leak of 103 names does it, more data to work with. One can project Barry Bonds HR rates from his younger days and find he hit probably over 100 extra HRs. I'm not sure why Nate couldn't take a PECOTA projection for Bonds from the time he started taking steroids and determine how many HRs he hit beyond that projection (probably a lot more than 100 HRs). The major point is that from the standpoint of SCIENTIFIC CURIOSITY BP should be at the forefront of 'wanting to know' but instead they spent more effort ridiculing various sources, defending players rights, and denying the effect of PEDs despite growing numbers. That they choose to do so questions their motives in the sense that they have a vested interest in accepting the numbers at face value.

May 11, 2009 4:39 PM on Manny's Return
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I'd settle for an acknowledgement for someone at BP that PEDs at some level of participation would have some effect on PECOTA comps and then we could go from there ,,,, The sources BP has ridiculed have contributed much more to the understanding of steroids than they have. BP has some great analysis, but they have long lost all credibilty on the steroid issue by pretending it doesn't affect performance.

May 10, 2009 12:05 PM on Manny's Return
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

"I've been disappointed so far by its approach to the PED question. BP is uniquely situated to take a rigorous look at the effects of PED use on performance, short term durability and long term durability, and it is one of the most important performance issues of this era. Maybe I somehow missed the whole discussion, but I haven't seen much of this here." BINGO +1000 It is in BP's interest to ignore the problem. BP's entire analysis is built on accepting the numbers at face value. If the numbers are suspect, subsequent analysis is built on a 'house of cards'. I've asked Nate twice in these posts at what point would PED use (10% 20% 50%) affect PECOTA but he has chosen to be mum on the subject? I really think that they thought PEDs had no effect on performance or their use was too small to be important. But no we see examples where the numbers are becoming overwhelming (6 of top 10 HR hitters since mid 80s, 40% of the mid 90s Indians roster, ... more to come). Much easier to say 'turn the page' or ridicule the very sources (SF writers, feds, Congress, Mitchell report) that have identified the scope of the problem.

May 09, 2009 10:37 AM on Manny's Return
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Do we know who provivded the documents indicating Manny was taking hCG? Any chance they were fabricated by Manny' doctors and delivered by Boras to MLB to provide an excuse that Manny could use as a cover for the testosterone levels. Having been caught red-handed on the testoterone, in Manny's mind,a fraudulent document may let him feel he avoided the tainting of steroids. Will ... is there any evidence that Manny actually took hCG or could he be fraudently copping to it as the lesser evil?

May 08, 2009 3:12 PM on Your Mileage May Vary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

So we're at the 40% level with the 1995 Indians alone. Once again Nate, what is the threshold for PED use that invalidates the PECOTA projections? 20%, 40% 60% of all players? Or is it best to ignore the question and just keep using the numbers?

May 08, 2009 3:04 PM on The Steroids Game
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"but also a necessary one considering the disadvantage that players who don't cheat face when they compete for jobs with players on their own team, or on the field against players on other teams, who do cheat." This is the REAL educaton that needs to take place. The clean players need to realize more damage is being done to them by the union protecting cheaters than any loss of personal privacy. The clean player is better served, not harmed, by the full disclosure of the 103 names.

May 08, 2009 4:45 AM on Manny's Return
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

Amazing that even Boras, unlike many here at BP, has come to accept a non-analytical as a basis for suspension.

May 07, 2009 8:07 PM on Your Mileage May Vary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Nate ... at what level of steroid usage does PECOTA become a 'house of cards' in predicting the performance of power hitters? Six of the top 10 HR hitters since the middle 80s are now implicated. Better than 50 / 50 for the elite power hitter. Haven't we crossed a threshold where these comps are worthless at predicting the path of a clean player? Or is BP still holding onto the the mantra that PEDs are not performance-enhancing?

May 07, 2009 5:49 PM on The Steroids Game
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

'Turning the page' on performance-enhancing drugs is like stopping reading the Bible after Genesis - you'll miss 99% of the story.

May 07, 2009 10:24 AM on Your Mileage May Vary
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I've afraid BP might lose Ben if someone in the Tigers organization reads this.

May 06, 2009 2:36 PM on Bouncing Around
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -10

Lets just hope we don't find Pujols ridiculous numbers were achieved with performance-enhancing drugs (HGH). The ultimate deterrent would be taking and holding blood samples.

May 04, 2009 9:02 PM on Taking Wing
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Fontenot has now played at least 2 games at 3B this year

Apr 27, 2009 8:46 AM on I Can See Clearly Now?
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Wow ... One of the best articles I have ever read at BP ... right up there with the VORP analysis by draft position a few years back ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Where did all the customized stat categories that were set up last year by each individual in Team Tracker go? Stat categories displayed include only (PA R HR RBI SB AVG) for hitters and (IP W SO SO ERA WHIP). Are we supposed to reset all the stat categories? Never had to do this before each year. The stat categories carried over year to year.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

What's new here? BP picks the Red Sox, Indians and A's. What is surprising is that even Christina couldn't pull the trigger on the A's.

Apr 06, 2009 3:21 PM on Staff Picks for 2009
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Joe if we quote your numbers are we required to say "According to Joe Sheehan, and he usually gets these things right ..." just like the MLB Network said when using BP projections on just about every 30 teams in 30 days segment "According to Baseball Prospectus, and they usually get these things right ...". Made me think there was some quid pro quo just to use the numbers ...

Apr 06, 2009 2:33 PM on The Top Ten
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

ditto on Santana to Red Sox

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

there are some that say Beltre was never a star just a one year fluke who got rewarded very nicely

Mar 31, 2009 6:35 PM on To the Warning Track
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Now that PECOTA has picked the Yankees, it will be interesting to see the extent that all the BP writers will go to distance themselves from that projection in picking the Rays and Red Sox. Looking forward to those rationalizations which I'm sure we will see in lieu of noting the regression to the mean based on BABIP for about every Ray reliever.

Mar 31, 2009 6:26 PM on Outside Help, AL East
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Great catch. Any corrections Will after lookig at these pictures?

Mar 27, 2009 9:56 PM on Chicago Cubs
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

irrelevant

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Exactly what has this route (fewer buyers for a product at a premium price) done for boxing? Basically make it irrevelant.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"It seems every downtrodden organization, from the Pirates and the Orioles, to the Reds, the Royals, and the Rangers, are all hoping to be the 2009 version of the Rays a year after Tampa Bay went from having the worst record in the major leagues to winning the AL pennant." Well I hope the fans of those teams are ready to be God-awful for ten years to accumalate the necessary draft picks. Hardly a worthwhile model,

Mar 27, 2009 8:26 PM on Reality Checks
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

even if true, the only problem with this analysis is that Lowell lost his speed long ago and has been hitting homers for a long time. PECOTA damns any player on Lowell's side of 30 and to come up with this retort to project some improvement for Lowell is a rose-colored stretch.

Mar 25, 2009 1:11 PM on Boston Red Sox
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Why does this web page display with 1. before every name?

Mar 23, 2009 12:00 PM on Post-Mortem
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

don't worry Will ... this one wasn't a done deal ...

Mar 18, 2009 3:44 PM on Hit-by-Pitch Rates
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Brings back memories of Will's 'done deal'

Mar 18, 2009 3:42 PM on Third Base
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Did you have the opportunity to upgrade to a full season package to keep your tickets? If so why did you turn it down? Do you really expect the team to find 3 other 20-game patrons to fill those same seats for the rest of the year instead of finding one patron to cover all 80 games? Try going on-line to buy tickets to even a few games and realize how good you had it. Better yet try to get those tickets from a broker. I'm trying to figure out why MLB teams aren't charging 3x the prices of tickets. At least they'd get the money instead of the broker or whatever version of Ticketmaster exists now.

Mar 13, 2009 6:03 PM on Dolor
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Both Pettitte and Mussina had bad outings with Pudge which lead the Yankees pairing them with Molina down the strech. One could argue this was the single biggest mistake made by the Yankees last year as Pudge withdrew and his batting numbers shrank. Girardi should have told both to suck it up and work with Pudge rather than let a few bad games derail the improvement the Yankees should have seen over Molina in making that trade. But Pettitte's star and Mussina's 'creature of habit' makeup overshadowed Girardi's control of the team.

Mar 13, 2009 12:57 PM on John Dewan
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Mike Fancesa has bitched about this problem on YES an even had some Yankee brass on to address the issue. The bottom line - increased requests for FULL season tickets have taken up the very seats formerly occupied by PARTIAL season ticket holders. I guess you could argue whether the team should have shown more loyalty to long time PARTIAL season holders than new customers willing to pay a FULL season bill, but most businesses prefer the customer with the most green in their hand.

Mar 13, 2009 12:36 PM on Dolor
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"Right now it's a no-win situation for Towles; the system looks at his dismal production in '08 (his first pro season of more than 100 games) and sees a player who can't hold up as an everyday backstop" Huh? Lack of talent and coaches decision DNP make someone unhealthy? Is this the result of building in the 'Pavano effect' into your system where someone is more likely to be injured on the DL than when actually playing?

Mar 13, 2009 12:22 PM on Houston Astros
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Unlke football and basketball, the number of scholarships for baseball is very limited with players splitting scholarships very common. The temptation for the coach to ride his few horses, especially at schools on the fringe, is immense and contributes to the problem. Asking a non-scholarship layer to fill the role of your stud on that fifth day will probably be reflected in the team's record and quickly get that coach fired.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

this meaningless game is still the weakness of the current format (see US Venz last night)

Mar 12, 2009 4:08 PM on Logistics
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

"The Rays showed that intelligent drafting and strong farm system production can provide an inexpensive roster base which can be augmented with intelligently spent free-agent dollars." Yeah, after having the benefit of the first draft pick (or close to it) becuase you've been God-awful for 10 years. Lets get real here.

Mar 12, 2009 4:01 PM on The Magic 15 Puzzle
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

They are just taking a page out of the Cubs medical directory ... who lied or misdiagnosed so many injuries

Mar 12, 2009 3:54 PM on St. Louis Cardinals
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Kenny Holtzman threw across his body his whole life for many more pitches and many more innings and didn't suffer any of the injuries these guys do nowadays.

Mar 12, 2009 3:43 PM on Florida Marlins
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

There is something seriously wrong with fantasy baseball when one can say "Manny's numbers as a Dodger last year would make him a top 10 pick if expanded to a full season" -maybe a top 10 pick for a non-steriod player in the last 30 years.

Mar 10, 2009 4:06 PM on Los Angeles Dodgers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The Cubs misdiagnosed or lied about the medical condition of so many of their players (Prior and Wood being the most notable) no kudos should go their way unless it is for the extensive implementation of the 'towel drill' with Prior.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Manny would still be a free agent (compliments of boras) had this broke earlier

Mar 06, 2009 2:53 PM on There's a Breach
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

touche

Mar 06, 2009 2:51 PM on There's a Breach
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I've posted several times that Bradley's contract is really two years with a TEAM option for a third year. The Cubs are only on the hook for two years. Continuing to treat this as a 3-year contract is simply misanalysis.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Just because the guys you threw a lot of money at didn't perform well doesn't mean that using in-house candidates will be any better - just cheaper. BP loves to downplay the importance of relievers but some of the biggest successes (Philly last year) and biggest disasters (Cleve every other year) are directly related to bullpen performance. The BP mantra seems to be - go cheap - because they may be just as good. But teams that have already made a significant investment in other talent (Yankees) can't afford to just roll the dice and sees where it lands. They did that with Hughes and Kennedy and it was a disaster and wasted all the investment they made in other salaries. There answer - sign more SP talent to put the odds in their favor. Do they really want ot see that further investment go down the tubes relying on inexperienced relievers like they did with the inexperienced starters last year?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Based on this projection, I\'d be willing to offer my entire Strat-O-Matic draft just to move up and take Wieters. Now I just have to apply PECOTA to figure out who is going to finish last in my league and get the #1 draft pick!

Mar 04, 2009 2:54 PM on Matt Wieters
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Roberts is the poster boy for \'steroids aren\'t just for the big guys\'. At the time he was in a life and death struggle with Jerry Hairston for the starting 2B position. Hairston\'s injury in the first spring game allowed Roberts to showcase his steroid inflated numbers and win the job for good. I\'m not 100% sure of this - but I think Hairston was linked to PEDs in his attempt to recover from the injury. So steroids aren\'t just limited to HR champs but life and death struggles at the lowest levels. For Roberts, six years later - it allowed him to be in a position to cash in to the tune of $ 40 mil - a chance he wouldn\'t have had had he lost that struggle years ago.

Feb 26, 2009 1:40 PM on AL Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Nate could have used this article to state his position on the influence of steroids upon PECOTA but sidestepped the issue. Eventually he\'ll have to come to terms with the subject.

Feb 25, 2009 7:04 AM on Chasing Bonds
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

The list of ARod comparables show why steroids make PECOTA a HOUSE OF CARDS. Since SOSA is Arod\'s closest comp, do we have to assume that Arod needs to continue taking steroids to match Sosa\'a numbers? Or do we assume that Sammy had the greater benefit of steroids up to this age in his career and his steroid-inflated numbers really aren\'t a comp for Arod (if you discount any benefit for arod thus far from them). The point is that all these comps are USELESS unless you know how the numbers were generated with respect to steroids. Is a \'clean\' Dave Winfield or a \'dirty\' Sammy Sosa or Ken Caminiti a better comp? Simply comparing numbers is PURE FOLLY.

Feb 24, 2009 3:29 PM on Chasing Bonds
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

he sure does ... with an even better OPS vs RHP (.883) than Griffey\'s (.841) ... and definitely a better glove

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

So Will\'s going to ask questions now - after telling us that PEDs don\'t really impact performance, defending users on legal rights, and \'turning the page\' showing no interest in identifying the past users. The only reasons we know anything about the identity of the cheaters are the very sources (SF writers, prosecutors, congressional hearings, Mitchell Report, disgruntled girlffriends and relatives) that have been ridiculed here at BP. I want to know everything related to the problem regardless of the source. Be part of uncovering rather than burying the past. To say you can\'t learn from the past, imples you have all the answers already.

Feb 20, 2009 7:16 PM on The Men In Black
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

amen

Feb 20, 2009 7:08 PM on The Men In Black
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Frankly I\'m looking forwrd to more first hand testimony to whether steroids provide any benefit. Many here at BP have already decided they don\'t provide any such help. I\'ll wait to hear from the users - something you\'ll never find out if you \'turn the page\'. Interesting that Arod thought they provided no benefit (at least in the way he was taking them) but yet offered no reason why he would continue taking them if they didn\'t. Does any reasonable person expect Barry Bonds to offer the same assessment of his use of steroids (assuming that day ever comes)? Glad to see Joe has decided to take an interest in the first hand testimony. Perhaps he can get some of his brethern to do the same.

Feb 18, 2009 1:21 PM on The Rush to Judgment
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -17

Great ... maybe I can return the BP Prospectus 2009 I just bought at Barnes and Noble

Feb 15, 2009 3:28 PM on Reader Mail
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

\"There was a time, not very long ago, that I thought the issue of PEDs in baseball was overblown because use was overstated. Now, I think that use was common, with some significant number of players regularly using steroids in an effort to become better at that craft, and a larger number at least trying them out for a period of time.\" Joe, might it be that the only reason you changed your mind is the number of players identified through the work of the very sources (SF writers, prosecutors, congressional hearings, Mitchell Report, disgruntled girlffriends and relatives) that you have ridiculed? BP likes to think that it has done a lot to advance the understanding of steroids, but they have done virtually nothing to advance the identification of users, and in fact have sought to \'turn the page\' to minimize such identification by riduling those who seek to do so. Great synopsis of BP postion in the previous post by BCCURLS. \"I remain skeptical that PED use is connected to performance in a way that warps the game...\" While a steroid pitcher (Clemens) firing a fastball to a steroid hitter (MCGuire) might be a wash on a given day comparing their performance to non-steroid players (Fred McGriff or Don Mattingly) ultimately leaves the clean player outside the Hall looking in. The post by AIRSTEVE01 was a good summary. To clean up baseball 1. Bud needs to use the ARod mess (and Orza / union complicity)to leverage the union to reopen drug testing to close some of the loopholes. 2. Include blood testing to address HGH and other possible PEDS. 3. Store blood samples for future testing for new designer steroids. Perhaps it might be impossible to retroactively convict someone for using a new designer steroid, but you could certainly ask a player if he used it, and confirm whether he is a liar or not. At the least it would provide an incentive for players to think twice before trying a new designed steroid designed to beat the system.

Feb 11, 2009 9:55 AM on Stupid Media Tricks
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Ichiro getting hurt pitching in the WBC would be the #1 reason why this dog should be put to bed.

Feb 09, 2009 5:53 PM on August 13-19
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

If someone has Mark McGuire as a comp, do I have to assume the player has to take steroids in order to match Mark\'s numbers in the future? Or do I assume that if he won\'t take steroids (or will be unable to do so because of future testing) that his career projection might be more akin to Dave Kingman? Likewise does a Don Mattignly or Mark Grace comp accurately project the future of another player that intends to supplement his play with HGH or some other drug currently below the radar. For the statistical comp to mean anything you\'d have to match up two players with a similar drug profile - something that could only be done much better the more, not less, we find out about the past.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

You\'re missing the point. Bud was not in a legal position to release the list and being unable to do so actually conviently kept a \'dirty\' ARod from being outed. Bud may have had the knowledge but not the right to disclose. I beleive Howard Bryant has an article at ESPN suggesting that the players who tested positive already knew they did so. If so, did the union or MLB inform them?

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Here\'s something to think about ... If the Bud knew the identity of the 104 positive tests, was he hoping that a \'clean\' ARod would ultimately replace a \'dirty\' Barry Bonds at the top of the HR list, keeping quiet the fact that ARod was actually as \'dirty\' as Bonds? An awful lot of INCENTIVE TO \'TURN THE PAGE\' and restore the image of baseball as having a \'clean\' HR king. So lets just realize that everyone (dirty players, a commish covering up, and diserving Fehr and Orza) all have different reasons to \'turn the page\'. Quite convienent.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 8

“This site delves into these issues in so much more depth than most of the drivel on the Internet, let alone the print or television media.” Perhaps in the past, but recently most of the articles at BP have contained the phrase ‘turn the page’ rather than any real interest in understanding the past. I’d call it the ‘Sodom and Gomorrah’ perspective in that you can’t afford to look back because the truth might be too gruesome to comprehend. BP has consistently ridiculed the very investigative efforts (SF writers, Bond’s grand jury, congressional investigations, Mitchell report) that have lead us to the current understanding of the extent of involvement. That criticism has been on several levels (scapegoat, legal rights, labor rights, political grandstanding, MLB cronyism) and may be deserved but each step in the process has contributed to our understanding of the depth and extent of player involvement. This attitude is even reflected in Joe’s very comments in this thread where he is more concerned about the legal /labor angle on the story than knowing who exactly used steroids. “I’m more interested in whether any player is going to go after the MLBPA over the fact that the \"anonymous survey testing\" results are now public knowledge. This seems to be a serious breach of the CBA, ….. I just find that a more interesting thread than another \"CHEATER!\"fest.” I’ve always suspected that the reason BP wanted to “turn the page” was that to admit steroids affected performance and acknowledge that an undetermined number of past players were users would essentially invalidate the PECOTA comps on which much of their numerical analysis is built. It was good to see another subscriber had similar thoughts … “Out of sheer curiosity, are there enough identified steroids players for PECOTA to project a pattern and show what the career of someone who used PEDs differs? “ But Will was quick to respond with the current BP company line “I don\'t think anything\'s changed since Nate looked at this in \'Baseball Between The Numbers.\' Isn’t it time to rethink those conclusions and embrace all sources of information, rather than ridicule them, whether they be Will’s ‘Deep Throat’, a leaked player list, or an estranged family member. To say we don’t need all of those sources is to say we already have all the answers. And I’m far from that point.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

and the page BP and yourself wanted to turn also just got \'pissed on\' as you put it ...

Feb 05, 2009 10:49 AM on The Debate Continues
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Why don\'t you care if he used steroids or not? Is it because you have already decided that they can\'t enhance performance? If so you are just as closed-minded as Joe but for a different reason. Its pretty clear that we don\'t know eveyting there is to know about past steroid use. Just because we never will doersn\'t mean we shouldn\'t seek to garner as much information as possible. I just want to know why so many otherwise wise and educated people would choose to close the door on additional information regardless of source? Information, in and of itself, isn\'t bad. You might reject the credibilty of the source but I (and you should too) want to hear the witnesses. To do so otherwise is simply deciding to make up your mind before all the evidence is in.

Jan 29, 2009 10:38 AM on Catching Up
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

\"I don’t really care what a \"Jay McGwire\" is.\" Why not Joe, are you afraid you might learn something? How can you be so closed-minded to the possibility that he might have something to offer? Might it be that BP, MLB, and you think they already know all they need to know (or all they want to know) about the subject? \"I want MARK to live in truth to see the light, to come to repentance so he can live in freedom - which is the only way to live.\" Seems there are a lot of possible substitutes in the above sentence for \"MARK\". Much better than the Sgt. Schultz \"I know nothing!\"

Jan 28, 2009 1:42 PM on Catching Up
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Will is probably spending much of his time looking for a \'redder than red\' color to cover all the Red Sox off-season acquisitions.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 3

I stopped watching Olbermann long before he chose to show his political side because he was so full of himself at ESPN such that he thought of himself as bigger than any story he could deliver. His track record after ESPN had been pretty miserable until he decided to become the liberal equivalent of Rush Limbaugh. Nice move for his career but no so good for his credibilty. A forward by Ken Burns - now that would have been interesting.

Jan 22, 2009 4:25 AM on Andy Pratt
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

I have heard local reports in Chicago that Bradley\'s contract was really $18 million over two years with a club option for a third year at $12 million with a $ 2 million buyout. Doesn\'t Bradley at 2 years for a guaranteed $ 20 million (even at 120 games per) make him a bargain compared to Raul Ibanez?

Jan 20, 2009 6:52 AM on Cubby Quartet
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Lets see - Dewan has Jeter as the worst fielder in the majors - and Adam Dunn as fourth best LF in the majors. Simply indefensible. Completely discrediting. Just another example of fielding metrics gone MAD. Dunn was lucky he didn\'t hurt himself or others out there.

Jan 14, 2009 1:14 PM on Indefensible
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

The Mattingly / McGwire comp is the clearest battlegound to define the benefit of steroids. If Mattingly and McGwire exchange pill bottles, Mattingly gets into the HOF and McGwire is the footnote.

Jan 13, 2009 11:28 AM on The Infielders
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I\'ve always found a tinge of \"we are smarter than they are\" here at BP that seems to resonate through many of their articles. As if to disagree with them or question their metrics means you must be the stupid one. I think you\'ve caputured that criticism quite elegantly in your posting.

Jan 13, 2009 11:21 AM on July 31-August 4, 2001
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Better question is how did Bert Blyleven (287-250 .534)and Nolan Ryan (324-292 .525) win so few games with all their God-given talent? The usual excuse is that they played for poor teams but I think if you put that to the test by proportioning each players decisions according to the team\'s winning percentage that year you\'ll find these two contributed just slightly more (not HOF more) than expected from an \'average\' pitcher of these \'poor\' teams. Akin to a team having all the right offensive numbers (OBP SLG OPS) but underscoring in the runs and wins department. The problem in Ryan\'s and Blyleven\'s case, it just not over a single season, but over an entire career with many different teams. I don\'t think wins or winning pct should be the end all in HOF discussions, but these two pitchers arguably did less with their stuff in terms of producing wins for their teams than nearly every ‘elite’ pitcher.

Jan 13, 2009 7:47 AM on The Pitchers
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Let me make the suggestion that every BP story from now on that includes a JAWS number makes full disclosure of the fielding component so exceptions like Bill Dahlen, Tony Phillips, and Bret Butler can be duly noted.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

No - my point is that you have no idea how the system that ranks Devon White\'s fielding so high even works. I\'d sure like to know how a system can take the limited number of statistics that were avaialbe at the time of Bill Dahlen (PO, A, E,games, innings, position played) and turn the guy into a borderline HOF. How many flyballs a year occur where either of two OFs can catch a ball but one yields to the other? Under any counting system, one OF gets the credit for making the catch and the other gets a debit for not getting to the ball. I used to see this with Chet Lemon all the time. Yes, he was a good fielder, but he called off every outfielder because he was obsessed with his fielding numbers. I\'m not sure there is any counting system of basic stats that gives credit to both fielders for being able to catch the flyball. The observation methods (+/-) are probably an improvement but still rely on an assumption or subjective assessment of the velocity or path of the batted ball. Perhaps someday we will have reliable tracking (microchip, 3D trajectory video analysis like with pitch fX) of batted balls that will give us reliable and objective velocity and path measurements that will allow us to make true comparisons between players. Just because that can\'t be done now doesn\'t mean that we should give up trying to assess fielding. The contributions of Clay Davenport and John Dewan represent a good faith effort to do so. As I said before, the proprietary nature of those systems do not allow us to assess the validity of their assumptions or methodology other than by their final numbers. When those numbers don\'t jive with common sense, then they should be questioned just as easily as that Gold Glove selction that doesn\'t make any sense. Personally, I will go back try to find any references to Bill Dahlen in my copy of \'The Glory of Their Times\'.

Jan 10, 2009 5:59 AM on Andre and Onward
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

If Devon White and Brett Butler are that much better fielders according to JAWS than someone with 8 Gold Gloves and perhaps the best arm of his era (-5 strato as I recall), then perhaps JAWS is overrating the defensive contribution of CFs in general. Yes they were good fielders but its not like Dawson was a terrible one. As I recal Brett Butler\'s arm was not much better than Johnny Damon. I thought this revised JAWS analysis was also responsible in a recent BP article (within the last month) for sending to the head of the class for HOF some 1900 player who I never heard of on the basis of his defensive contribution. The proprietary nature of these fielding stats hinders their acceptance. I\'ll grant you that not every Gold Glove winner deserves it, but expect your fielding numbers to recieve the same critical review as the Gold Glove selections when they come to similiar misguided conclusions. Disclosing the methodology of the fielding stats would go a long way to adressing those criticisms.

Jan 09, 2009 6:50 AM on Andre and Onward
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Bret Butler and Devon White better players than Andre Dawson according to JAWS ??? In a Ricky Ricardo voice .... \"JAWS you got a lot of explainin\' to do\"

Jan 08, 2009 2:23 PM on Andre and Onward
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -7

Restraint by the owners, characterized as collusion by you and basic financial sanity by others, lasted about two years, not 14 years. The rise in players salaries continued unabated except for those 2 years.

Jan 08, 2009 5:55 AM on Do-Nothings
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Interesting how half the people think that the Yankees signing Tex is an unfair advantage while the other half think the signing was plain stupid and the Yankees overpaid. Seems if the true Yankee haters thought the signing was a stupid one, they\'d be glad the Yankees did the signing. Instead the Yankees haters are left to argue from both sides of the fence, which just makes their arguments all that more inconsistent.

Dec 28, 2008 7:55 AM on A Holiday Surprise
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Well for someone who wants to turn the page on the steriod era, I\'m not surprised that you would think that all the information to be gleened about prior steroid use is already in. For those that would like to see the investigation into prior use continued further (upcoming Bond\'s trial), pardon those that don\'t think they know everything we need to know to categorically reject McGuire. Frankly I\'ve see all that I need to send him packing. This writer is actually being a little more open-minded and defering his judgement.

Dec 26, 2008 12:45 PM on A Different Perspective
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I laugh at all the financial advice given to the Yankees at this site. We should all be so lucky to take a $ 10 mil investment and turn it into a $ 1 billion asset. They did that more by creating a revenue stream based on star power than any marginal win calculations.

Dec 24, 2008 10:53 AM on July 24-25, 2001
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

\"However, it\'s only December 22, and saying that you\'re not going to pursue a player on December 22 is meaningless. Nothing happens in the last ten days of the year, especially when Christmas falls midweek as it does this year.\" Yes ... Joe, like the Red Sox guessed wrong here ... for a bluff and $ 10 mil they lost their MAN as Yogi would say \"it deja vu (Johnny Damon) all over again

Dec 23, 2008 6:28 PM on Free Agent Dragnet
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

tcfatone ... thanks for a well-reasoned rebuttal. I agree with most of your points and couldn\'t have said it better. BP may be a little defensive / paranoid over the steroid issue because it would make the whole idea of player comps under PECOTA a house of cards. Is the best comp for someone - a clean Don Mattingly or proven cheater like Palmeiro? Which would you use to project that players career? If McGuire turns up on somebody\'s comp, do we only project him to attain McGuire\'s numbers assuming he takes as many enhancing drugs as McGuire did? That is the dilemma that BP faces and makes it much easier for them to ignore the problem and plead to turn the page on the subject. Lest all those comps become tainted.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

\"They already know all then need to know, and any attempt to teach them anything just causes them to become more entrenched in their ill-considered positions.\" I think some people here at BP are just as stubborn-headed about certain subjects (see steroids / McGwire) as the main stream press is about the use of sabermetrics for player evaluation.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

and if Mark McGuire is \"the very best we can give it\" well that\'s not saying very much of the company included

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Now that the BBWAA has recognized BP, I\'m sure they\'ll take your suggestions to heart in the spirit in which they are offered ...

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Hopefully this will bring a more structured editiorial review to the articles written here.

Dec 15, 2008 11:11 AM on The Jermaine Dye Trade
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Yes, the Yankee offense was the bigger problem last year, but it is a lot easier to rationalize an improvement in their offense with comebacks by Cano, Posada, Matsui, even Jeter than to fill the two gaping holes in the rotation. Yankee fans saw what having two gaping holes (Hughes, Kennedy)in your rotation can do to the bottom line last year and Cash cannot standby and watch the same disaster this year.

Dec 10, 2008 12:13 PM on CC... Chooose Me!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Wasn\'t one of the criticisms of the Yankees when they lost to Cleveland 2 years ago that they didn\'t really have a true # 1 for the playoffs like other teams did (Beckett)? That Wang, as good as he was, just wasn\'t up to the task? That to win the playoffs you need the horse not 5 non-descript starters? Adding Lowe might be a better low-risk approach to cover innings for the regular season but would do absolutely nothing for the Yankees need for a true #1 to match up in the playoffs. And isn\'t playoff perfromance all that really counts in the Yankee world?

Dec 10, 2008 12:04 PM on CC... Chooose Me!
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

John obviosly didn\'t run this comment past the editors at BP. Congrats to him for recognizing what others at BP with their head in the sand haven\'t. Do you really think that someone with 17HRs could win the MVP in 1998?

Dec 10, 2008 9:37 AM on The Winter Meetings
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Maybe Clay needs to work on FRAA instead of WARP. These fielding metrics really lost a lot of credibilty when it can thrust a virtual unknown (Bill Dahlen FRAA 188)whose play at point in time remains virtually without witness to the top of the list of potential HOF candidates. At the same time, it can mark someone (Ron Santo FRAA -15)who won five consecutive Gold Gloves and the (th highest fielding percentage of all-time as below average. I grant you that Gold Gloves and fielding percentage are not the end-all as a measure to fielding ability, but for God sake\'s Ron Santo BELOW AVERAGE? I think an explanation of Dahlen\'s numbers by BP would be a CASE STUDY in how FRAA is determined. Without such exposure its just another number.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting point. Would Maddux have been as \'good\' if MLB was able to monitor the strike zones of umpires in the early 90\'s as they do today?

Dec 09, 2008 6:58 AM on Rolling into Town
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 2

You duly noted the the real problem with the Yankees last year was more offensive than pitching. But then you propose a lineup with Randy Winn, Nick Swisher, and ? at DH to replace Matsui, Cabrera, and Giambi? That\'s an awful lot for TEX to make up.

Dec 05, 2008 11:55 AM on Yankees
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

so now you are supporting this trade based on two months of clean performance by a minor leaguer ... now you are really out there on a limb

Dec 04, 2008 9:44 AM on A Peach of a Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -4

Leave it to Christina to decide the merits of a trade on the performance of a minor leaguer - and a cheater at that. From Baseball America \"Flowers began his pro career in inauspicious fashion. He tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs shortly after signing in May 2006, and his 50-game suspension cost him the first month of the 2007 season.\" Do you think Atlanta knew something the White Sox didn\'t? Which steriod-enhanced comp are you using for this analysis?

Dec 03, 2008 9:06 PM on A Peach of a Deal
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

Your Venn diagram assumes two circles - sign at an arbitration amount for one year or get the draft picks for signing as a free agent elsewhere. If fact, there is a third option - signing with the Yankees as a free agent at a more reasonable price. One could argue, at least in Pettitte\'s case, the desire to remain a Yankee might make that a viable option for both him and the team.

Dec 03, 2008 8:56 PM on July 9-15
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Don\'t confuse a rumor labelled as such with a report of a \'done deal\'. Stick with the former and you\'ll never be wrong.

Dec 01, 2008 7:40 PM on Sharing the Dais
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

they should make the $ 20,000 back easily.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

What\'s happened to the home page? Banner book ads at the left make the page exceedingly long.

Nov 24, 2008 11:38 AM on Moose Tracks
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

What were the chances of someone with 17HRs winning the MVP ten years ago in 1998? Repeat after me .... Perfomance enhancing drugs have no effect. Performance ehhancing drugs have no effect. Performance enhancing drugs have no effect.

Nov 21, 2008 7:49 AM on The Tool of Ignorance
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Graffanino > de la Rosa > Ramirez > Crisp This is improvement to get excited over? Nice to pat yourself on the back for gaining some incremental edge, but glaciers have moved faster.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -3

Where is the accountabilty when Will Carroll announces free agent signings that fall through? Don\'t confuse blogging with actual writing that gets editorial review.

Nov 17, 2008 6:57 PM on Walk Rate Spikes
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

No one ... he\'ll be incapacitated before signing and no one will touch him

Nov 15, 2008 1:56 PM on July 2-8
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 1

This has nothing to do with hate. There have been numerous articles at BP saying that paying for a person to put you over the top with prospects could be worthwhile IF you are on the threshold. The A\'s are no where near that threshold and, to be consitent, nobody here at BP should be endorsing this trade (assuming Holiday won\'t be resigned)if they aren\'t.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

Yes they are out of it already. Forget your 3rd order win spin ... they were 24 1/2 games out and you think a half year of Holliday is going to make that up. The A\'s are buried until they can retain arbitration-eligible players - pure and simple.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -2

They are out of it already .. even if you don\'t realize it. They can\'t compete with the Angels and they are worse then at least 4 teams for the wild card. It\'s over for next year and many years after that if you can\'t keep 3 year players. It\'s amazing A\'s fans put up with this spoon-feeding.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

Lets see first the A\'s go rid of every good player facing free agency ... now they need to rid themsleves of players who are simply \'arbitration eligible\' to avoid paying market prices to 3-5 year players. I\'ll agree with the same poster that replied to this twisted logic at your Marlins column ... hey SELL the team to someone that can afford it ... get out of the game ... move the franchise ... stop kidding yourself you have a vaible MLB franchise ... if you can\'t even pay market rates to a 3 season player. The A\'s were half competitive as long as the only bug-a-boo was free agency ... now that it is simply any \'arbitration-eligible\' player, they have NO chance. You are right Christina, Holliday is gone and you\'ll get some stinkin\' draft picks that you could only hope turns into someone as good as Gonzalez - who you can turn around and trade again for a 6-month senseless rent.

 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

I don\'t think Volquez has to apologize for anything 200 IP of 17-6 3.21 ERA & 3rd in wins, 2nd in SO, 8th in ERA for a lousy team. He was the only reason (unless you liked seing Cueto blow up) to watch the Reds this year. Forget Rookie of the Year - he should have got more votes for Cy Young.

Nov 13, 2008 8:07 AM on Rookies of the Year
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: -1

Isn\'t about time that BP gets off the Giambi kick? Yes, he\'s a terrible fielder, especially range wise, but I\'d don\'t see him butchering recieved throws on normal plays like I do other guys (Fielder, Howard). Five guys had more errors than him (Loney, Votto, Fielder, Barton, Howard) and that doesn\'t include the guys that can\'t even find a glove (Hafner, Thome, Ortiz). Yes he\'s bad but he is a lot more servicable than at least five of the names above. And some of the guys you are fawning over (Loney, Votto, Barton) play the position terribly given the better skill set they have over Giambi.

Nov 11, 2008 8:31 AM on NL Roundup
 
sbnirish77
(17711)
Comment rating: 0

\"sort of a rogue\'s gallery no different than similar lists of Cubs third basemen between Ron Santo and Aramis Ramirez (to use another team with a problem that\'s spanned a similar length of time).\" Bill Madlock won the first two of his four batting titles playing 3B for the Cubs in 1975 and 1976 batting .354 and .339. No exactly a member of a \"rogue\'s gallery\".

Nov 07, 2008 6:55 AM on AL Addenda
 
sbnirish77
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The site is moving pretty slow today. Must be the download of all the criticism of Nate Mclotuh and Michael Young Gold Glove selections. Good to have some new whipping boys other than Jeter.

Nov 06, 2008 2:19 PM on Bob Costas
 
sbnirish77
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What a shameless promo for Hockey Prospectus ... throw out Sidney Crosby\'s name and you\'re sure to get a few hits

Nov 02, 2008 8:02 AM on Passing a Marker
 
sbnirish77
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OK .. maybe Cole Hamels too ..

Oct 30, 2008 8:40 AM on The Champions
 
sbnirish77
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Maddon never got to do what he wanted to do - get Price into a tied game for an extended period. He had that chance starting the 6th but bypassed it. By the time Utley and Howard came up, he brought in Howell to cover the 2 lefties expecting to PH for Howell next inning being down by a run. Except Baldelli messed up that plan with his HR. So Maddon let Howell bat basically using him in the same role (exteneded IP in a tie game) that he was saving for Price. When Howell wasn\'t up to the challenge, the chance to use Price in a tie game was lost unless the game went extra innings. Maddon best chances to leverage Price in a tie game may have been to start the game in the 6th. Afterwards, the score (down by 1) and desire not to burn Howell prevented him from going back to the game plan.

Oct 30, 2008 8:28 AM on The Champions
 
sbnirish77
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The Phillies came this far because of a bullpen that was predicted to regress to the mean as early as June, and as late as September, never really did.

Oct 30, 2008 4:31 AM on The Champions
 
sbnirish77
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I think BP started talking about a regresssion to the mean for the whole Phillie bullpen after2 months of the season -Lidge included - based on BABIP and HR/FB rates. Well the Phillies laughed at that one all the way to the bank - World Series champions.

Oct 30, 2008 4:11 AM on June 28-30, 2001
 
sbnirish77
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Lidge never did give up that HR to blow a save that all at BP predicted

Oct 29, 2008 8:33 PM on June 28-30, 2001
 
sbnirish77
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This rule was cited in three different stories today so it is important to realize it only applies to minor laegue games not major league games. So the use of it in defense of Bud is entirely inappropriate. From Rany Jazayerli’s October 28, 2008 article reprinted today The solution is so obvious that it already exists—at the minor league level. From Rule 4.11: National Association Leagues may also adopt the following rules for suspended games in addition to 4.11 (d) (1) & (2) above…: (3) The game has not become a regulation game (4 1/2 innings with the home team ahead, or 5 innings with the visiting club ahead or tied). (4) Any regulation game tied at the point play is stopped because of weather, curfew or other reason. In other words, for National Assocation (i.e. minor league) teams, games which are tied, or games which are not \"regulation\" because they haven’t finished five innings, are allowed to be \"suspended\" and continued from the point of stoppage at the earliest convenient moment. So why haven’t major league teams caught on? Simple: money. By allowing games to be considered complete as early as the fifth inning, major league teams don’t have to accommodate fans who bought tickets to a game they were unable to see to its completion.

Oct 28, 2008 1:29 PM on Closer to a Tie
 
sbnirish77
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Any plans to link the improved home vs visiting team performance this year to the weeding out of greenies?

 
sbnirish77
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Joe has pretty much nailed this one but shouldn\'t all parties know the rules of engagnement before the game starts? Did the 3B coach for TB last night really have to get into Bud\'s head to know what Bud thought what was in the best interest of baseball, before waving the runner home? Convinced that this was your once chance to get a run home, and avoid going home for the winter, you wave that guy home. In the middle innings of a 1-run game, that is going to be played to completion, I don\'t know if you send him. Not knowing the rules of engegement simply makes the decision even more confusing. The biggest error was that all parties -Maddon, Pena, TV announcers, the public - did not know that Bud had decided to play the game to completion.

Oct 28, 2008 11:04 AM on Closer to a Tie
 
sbnirish77
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You may not know the day when the game will be resumed but you already know the time - 8:37 PM.

Oct 28, 2008 10:50 AM on June 24-27, 2001
 
sbnirish77
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Given the repeated shielding of his eyes from the lights and hand behind the ear during the press conference, you have to wonder whether a person making this decison should at least have all 5 senses working

Oct 28, 2008 8:37 AM on World Series Game Fi...
 
sbnirish77
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The assertion is that not everyone knew the rules of competition during the 5th and 6th innings last night - and consequently had no real basis on which to make their decisions. Maddon and Pena admitted as much after the game and the Fox announcers and audience were in the dark. I think even the announcers commented that Maddon should be out there asking for a stoppage, but might be afraid the game might never resume. And if the umpires shared Bud\'s vision then they are even more in the wrong for allowing the game to continue in the 5th and 6th. I really think the reason Bud didn\'t share his thoughts publically ahead of time is that it would have obligated a return today to finish any game today - even a 10-2 one.

Oct 28, 2008 8:34 AM on World Series Game Fi...
 
sbnirish77
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I wondered if Bud actually considered returning the the Trop to play game 6 before game 5 was finished. Don\'t laugh - he was asked about moving rest of game 5 to another site. Anything is possible in the world of Bud.

Oct 28, 2008 7:12 AM on World Series Game Fi...
 
sbnirish77
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Comment rating: 3

Bud says he wouldn\'t have let the game end in anything less than 9 innings. Based on post game comments, neither Joe Maddon nor Carlos Pena were aware of that. Ditto the announcers and TV audience. Would we really be coming back today if the score was 10-2 last night? Is Bud just making up the rules of compitition as we go along? Did anybody else think that the rule book he had in his hand last night was really TV Guide so he could check Fox\'s programming for tonight?

Oct 28, 2008 5:25 AM on World Series Game Fi...
 
sbnirish77
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The post game interview with Bud and Maddon was precious. Bud suggested that the game would not have been allowed to be anything less than 9 innings (i.e. TB wouldn\'t lose 2-1 if the game was called after 5)and Maddon said he didn\'t know anything about that. Seems the umpires didn\'t know also. Otherwise why play the top of the 6th in slop if the game was going to be suspended regardless of score. What the %&*# gives here? Is Bud just making up the rules of competition as he goes along? Is the man going senile? Making up rules that exist only in his mind and not shared with the participants. With the Astros trip to Milwaukee we found out when a home game really isn\'t a home game. Now we are left asking the question - when is a game that should be over, not really over? This Buds for you.

Oct 27, 2008 10:13 PM on Fear
 
sbnirish77
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Frankly the comment about the Rays not being the same since the Red Sox rallied in game 5 is more observant than anything. But then Joe might have to revisit that chemistry and momentum thing. And you know he doesn\'t want to go there.

Oct 27, 2008 6:05 PM on Judgment Calls
 
sbnirish77
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BP beat up Torre for using the 2 relievers in the wrong sequence when they both got stroked for HRs. now Joe is beating up Maddon for not using Miller even earlier to get stroked by Howard \"That Howard later ran into one off of Miller in the eighth doesn\'t mean a thing in terms of the fourth-inning decision.\" I thought I read somewhere at BP that the strategy should be to not let Utley or Howard face a righty in the 6th inning on. Seems this decision was entirely consistent with that. If starting pitching was the advantage the Rays had versus the Phillies, how does removing the starter at the very first sign of trouble serve that advantage? Then Joe could have questioned why Maddon had to use Wheeler or Balfour (given they\'ve already been dismissed by BP staff) in a important moment later in the game. And if the game goes 10-8 and flips the lineup 3-4 more times, who faces Howard in the 9th? No manager in the majors would remove his starter down 1 run, with two runners on base, this early. If anything argue Sonanstine\'s pitch selection. If Joe was managing the Red Sox, Matzo man might have averaged 3 1/3 IP per start.

Oct 27, 2008 5:49 PM on Judgment Calls
 
sbnirish77
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posted on Sunday morning ... I don\'t think a more accurate prediction has been made at the BP site than this one.

Oct 26, 2008 8:43 AM on On the Road Again
 
sbnirish77
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I think we need a lot more reserch into true value of BABIP (and the associated assumption that deviations are purely the result of random sampling). This has been pretty much be accepted as gospel at BP and we see few articles here examing that assumption compared to all the articles that dismiss real perfromance on the basis of a trend in BABIP. Statemets such as \"at home, the balls fell in for their hitters, and for their pitchers, they fell in... to the gloves of the Rays\' defense.\" should realy cause us to question the value of the statistic rather than just accept the conclusion the Rays were just lucky at home ... which seems incredibaly over simplistic.

Oct 26, 2008 8:42 AM on On the Road Again
 
sbnirish77
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Its really very sad what FOX has d