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For Episode 500, I think you should get as many of the E-I-C's together. Instead of talking about baseball, you could talk about Baseball Prospectus. I'd love to hear what CK, Goldman, etc. think about BP, even though I'm sure they wouldn't stop being polite and start being real.
That link about it being a mistake takes me to fangraphs Sox rookies stat page.
I believe the song also says that it's going to take money, a whole lot of spending money, to do it right. It does not seem that the Padres have that kind of dough.
Considering the research done by Rany Jazayerli about draft age, I think it would be helpful to see age on draft day as a column.
This, as it is, is wonderful, though.
Bathroom breaks...That's what's holding me back, I can't believe any good father has ever allowed his daughter to see the inside of a Yankee Stadium men's room.
This is really interesting, thanks for posting. Would there be a reason that he would be trying to fire his hips earlier? Could he be concerned about missing fastballs, so he would try to start earlier?
He is also not wearing that shin guard this year, but that probably doesn't mean anything.
I don't know if the math on bunting wisdom supports the need for this extra info, but, I would have liked to see what hitters were due up following the bunt. I imagine that affects the strength of the decision.
The video part doesn't work for me. But, I'm not very bright, so it could be my fault. Where is the gif supposed to appear?
I would hate hate hate it if a baseball game ended in 2:05. That would be awful. The 7 o'clock games would be over by 9:10, then 50 minutes until the 10's start and those are over by midnight. I'm barely finished kids bedtimes by 9 most nights, I'd miss every game and then I would have to watch Mitch freaking Williams for an hour before the Best Coast games start.
This whole thing seems like a non-issue to me. The games run long because of commercial breaks which the TV channels want because it makes money because there are so many people watching which means that teams make more money from TV contracts which means players make more money which means more, better athletes play baseball which means MIKE TROUT.
I believe you mean ...
" the CHAIR in Yost’s office is a little WOBBLIER than it was just 72 hours ago.
I wonder if anybody has Bo Schultz in the Reliever League. Nobody does in my pool and Craig Counsell got drafted.
I think Binford is the kid that is highlighted in the new chapter of Dollar Sign. In the book, he's presented as major diamond in the rough find, but, here, the Prof is rather muted in his response. Just shows how darn hard scouting is and just how hard baseball in general is.
This is great. Thanks
Was the other team playing without a RF? Or have they already shifted on Baez? In spring training.
Watching it again, I'm left to believe the RF is out of the frame of the video....
Hey Adam Lind, you just got LindBURNgh'd.
Dr. Carlton: Randolph3030, I'm afraid you'll have to undergo a coronary bypass operation.
Randolph3030: Say it in English, Doc.
Dr. Carlton: You're going to need open heart surgery.
Randolph3030: Spare me your medical mumbo jumbo.
Dr. Carlton: We're going to cut you open, and tinker with your ticker.
Randolph3030: Could you dumb it down a shade?
In the Mariners' Depth Chart, Ackley is projected to bat 8th and 9th. I think it just puts the player who will have the plurality of PAs at that spot, but it seems weird to me that the projected "lineup" is impossible*.
*barring an Effectively Wild listener email-esque change to the rules.
What about Ackley? Had a nice 2nd half (I know, I know...) with a better LD%, BB% and K%. He's got the scouting reports to back up being a quality hitter and should be near the top of a stronger lineup. Once upon a time he had some wheels, too.
I just pulled my annual out of my mailbox. On JANU-FREAKIN-ARY 24th! Well done everybody
ST. SEAN FORMAN, surely.
Who is minus-ing these comments? Why would you ding a comment that is totally polite, reasonable and thoughtful? Do people actually minus someone for having a different opinion? I think that is terrible behavior.
Boring is the eyes of the beholder. I think soccer is amazing and it always surprises me when baseball fans don't see it the same way. To me, they are very similar in pace, thoughtfulness and aesthetics.
Plus, to paraphrase The King, 5.1 Billion Soccer Fans Can't Be Wrong.
I will assume that whoever dinged my comment was just mad that I didn't mention Luis Suarez's hat trick and not because they thought I was being serious.
Surely, if you start a comment with the Comic Book Guy-esque Worst. Answer. Ever. that's a flashing red light for sarcasm, no?
I, obviously, don't think someone should be fired for making a slightly non-factual joke about Beane's soccer fandom.
#6 is the worst. answer. ever. There was a full slate of midweek action in the Prem after a great weekend. Everton-Man U - Moyes' first game against the Toffees (KG's favorite team). Two London derbys, a seven-goal thriller for Chelski and, most importantly, Arsenal stay top thanks to NB52.
Whoever said that should be terminated with immediate effect.
No arbitrator worth his/her salt would have their opinion influenced by being called a name outside of the court. Or inside the court, even. If Horowitz is affected by the comments, he should be relieved of his duties on the spot. I don't see why A-Rod's comments have any effect on anything besides PR spin.
Inside the court, there is a huge advantage to knowing the arbitrator as an input in argument crafting - an advantage which A-Rod gave up because he seems to equate cost and ability. That seems to me to be the biggest drawback to bringing in outside counsel rather than the willingness to act the fool.
A bit off the specific details of this piece, but can you explain why Selig would refuse to testify? It would seem to me that the burden of proof is still on MLB to defend the suspension since the argument is that the 211 games is extreme and arbitrary. Shouldn't MLB have to justify why ARod is getting a different ban than the others? Or is it that Selig, himself, is claiming he didn't establish the penalty and someone else from MLB is the responsible party?
It may be that I don't know the specifics of the case (which is totally possible because this stuff drains my soul), but this ARod outburst surprised me; maybe it is baseless and just for the circus atmosphere that he loves.
Amusing coincidence that Mort's guy Hawkins is at No. 3, considering ruckus he caused for putting a 3 on him.
It looks like Don Mattingly's career with modern medicine and an inflated run context. Or at least what I imagine Mattingly's career would have been.
Can I throw in another stLOLtistic (am I doing this right?):
Yankees RHB vs. LHP - .214/.294/.282/.576
Hafner vs. LHP - .180/.305/.360/.665
Soriano vs. LHP – .273/.310/.496/.806
Travis Hafner has hit better against lefties (59 PA) than all of the Yankees RHB combined.
Righthanded hitters with a higher OPS vs. LHP than Hafner:
Chris Nelson - 8 PA, 1.071.
Vernon Wells - 127, .744
Jayson Nix - 101, .670
Fransisco Cervelli - 25, .684
Nobody reads the intro.
Or the title, apparently.
STOP APOLOGIZING ROB! It's totally fine.
Have you ever seen the Louis CK bit about the guy in the seat next to him who gets pissed when the wi-fi on their plane doesn't work? Everything is Amazing & Nobody's Happy.
This is amazing and I'm totally happy! I swear!
Thanks for fixing.
Taijuan has gone missing again. It's not an inconvenience, just thought that you'd like to know. It's really no big deal.
It is very possible that I'm just blind, but it appears that Taijuan Walker isn't appearing in the 101 Prospects - he was ranked 9th but doesn't show up in the Top 101 stats page.
Sorry to nitpick, this is awesome. I didn't realize it was so cool, thanks for bringing my attention to it.
What does the ball feel like? And does it hurt to get hit with it, specifically, in the nuts.
That first graphic is lovely to look at, like the sunset in a well-made video game.
Wow. Nothing constructive to say besides "thanks for the info". I'm sure I'll be back to this one a bunch on the draft days.
What do you think of the Moran rumors for the Stros?
As long as Correa becomes Hakeem Olajuwon, not many people get mad about Houston missing on Jordan.
If he becomes Sam Bowie...
Correa has been very very good as well and don't forget that Correa signed for apprx 4.75 while Buxton signed for apprx $6+. That's the difference between the Stros signing Rio Ruiz and not due to the silly draft budget rules.
This is not true at all. The standard model has NEVER been a number dump. That's an insult to all of the terrific writers that have appeared at BP and at the many very good other outlets. The model has always been strong writing with statistical evidence. Even the heavy stat/number crunching stuff of Craig Wright and Clay Davenport were well-written. Nate Silver has been able to package his math well enough, it seems. Go back and read Bill James and tell me that his studies weren't well packaged. Go read the Baseball Prospectus Basics series. That's ridiculous, you need to apologize to Joe, Rany, Wolverton, Derek Zumstig. Christina Kahrl, Number Dumper.
Can we be done with the mea culpa's on Wedge being a jerk now, please.
With whom are we going to have this discourse? The people that would know what's inside Dustin Ackley's brain can't talk or, as Wedge showed, when they do seem less interested in civil debate than throwing out cheapshots about mother's basements...sorry, never playing the game.
You know who is having the discourse about Ackley's struggles? The Sabermetric community; the thing that Ian is asking to happen is exactly what is happening. For a few hours everybody gets pissed because these same stupid arguments come up again (honestly, can anybody be mad at Neyer for being hyper-defensive at this point? The poor guy is a genius and takes, as Harry Redknapp would say, dog's abuse). Then there is the regroup and the studying. By 4 pm on Tuesday, Brian Kenny was on whatever-the-name-of-that-terrible-show is on MLB Network saying 'if some analyst is messing up Ackley's head, that is unacceptable and the organization needs to change.'
Take a look at Hosmer, tons of number based articles have been done. Perhaps I've missed it, but the two best breakdowns of Hosmer's struggles have come from Sam Miller and ESPN's top scout-side writer, Keith Freakin Law. A few weeks ago on EW, the Dynamic Duo (Gruesome Twosome?) discussed the Reinhart-Rogoff scandal and decided that it probably won't happen bc there is so much cross-checking done by the community on it seem. Statheads are our own ombudsman. Who the hell is fact checking Harold Reynolds?
Also, I think it is your job to defend BP - you write for this brand and this brand means something, it is your job to defend that something. As for not holding stupid people to account - isn't that what this post is? You saying to all the stupid people who abused Wedge that they are being stupid?
I don't why this issue bugs me so much (take a look at my other comments, I'm not a negative guy) but with this following Colin's piece about Heyman-WAR, I just don't get why there is this urgency to dull the blade. Rany, Joe, Bill, Rob, Tango, MGL, Huckaby, Thorn, Palmer and all the other people I forgot - these guys had to scrap every second of the day to help get stats to where they are now - are we so sure that we don't need to go in two-footed anymore? I still have to watch Mitch Williams and Dan Pleasac every night, yet Sheehan got dumped from the Top 10s.
I think it's really just twitter, god that place is a cesspool - like that garbage dump in Star Wars. It has to be the worst place in the history of human existence.
Life is short/
So you choose your battles/
It's sometimes all you can choose/
Don't let them get away with it/
Don't give them satisfaction/
Fall in but don't fall for it
Sorry this is so long...
Everybody who dings me just proves my point. If you say something ignorant and mean, you get minused. Wedge was ignorant and mean and he's getting minused...even if through some intense mental gymnastics you can come up with some possibility of truth in the statement. Did anybody check to see if Ian is actually my Dad? No? Then you did exactly what Ian encouraged us not to do. Did you look past the way I said it AND what I meant to see if there was any truth?
Either Wedge meant what he said, or he's not a good enough public speaker to handle the duties of a MLB manager. And he chose to insult people while making a fool of himself.
When did we decide that mean, stupid people shouldn't be held accountable? And when did it become BP party line to NOT stick up for itself. Wedge doesn't deserve to be abused, but I see no reason at all why we can't have some fun with it on twitter or why the stats community needs self-reflection on the matter (which, btw, has been trying to figure out why Ackley's struggled for ages)
BTW, Ian, I really like the vast majority of your stuff.
Thanks for the lecture, Dad.
Yeah, I didn't write that clearly enough.
It was Sheehan who essential agrees with Heyman in that early season DMetrics are unreliable and I find Sheehan to be among the most combative of the saberish writers. I didn't mean to imply that Cameron agreed with Heyman, only that he wasn't distainful, but rather thoughtful in his response to Heyman.
I think, for the most part, the stats community "establishment" is pretty good about recognizing flaws, limitations, areas for improvement, I.E., change in replacement level at B-R and FG, the switch to the play-by-play defensive data that you and Jay made to JAWS a few years back, the move away from VORP...
But perhaps I just read only the writers who have a tone of intellectual honesty to their writing/research. In the last week alone, Rany and Professor Parks were going out of their way to make fun of their poor predictions on Hosmer or Brendan Harris.
Also, it drives me crazy that a paid writer doesn't even attempt grammar and punctuation in a tweet. How hard is it to capitalize "I".
This was a really interesting article, btw.
"we’re not only wrong about things like Marte versus Harper, but we’re unwilling to admit it?"
Are we sure that we ARE wrong about Marte vs Harper? Marte has been outstanding this year, not just in stats, but, as someone who watches a ton of Pirates games, in things like baserunning and defensive play. I'll bet whatever metric we have 50 years from now, if applied to this same period, would come up with Harper and Marte as practically identical.
As for Reynolds vs Johnson, Mark Reynolds is blind, so that'll hurt the ol' warp.
One of the problems I have with the "Saber-people need to stop being jerkballs to Heyman" argument is that I haven't seen many legit, respectable sabermetricians be a jerkball to Heyman about this.
Every reaction that I've seen (which isn't many, tbh - I try to stay away from these bs controversies) from anybody I would even think about reading has been measured, considerate and thoughtful.
I guess there have been some NotGraphs things, but here, DCameron at FG, hell, even Joe Sheehan, the Marty McSorley of the group, pretty much agreed with Heyman. If everyone who believes advanced metrics is going to be judged by what some idiots on twatter reply to Heyman, then I get to judge non-statvangelicals on the worst comment I can find under a Jay Jaffe piece at SI.com.
I immediately regret dragging the conversation to so low a standard. My apologies.
What about Small Wonder? She was a robot and she could have understood the rule book...probably improved it. Plus, she had to deal with that annoying fat-kid all the time, so interviews with John Kruk would be a breeze.
A day late to this, so perhaps it's no longer apropos, but in terms of the Reinhart-Rogoff - if something happened to JAWS, I think there would be a huge backlash. The in-roads that Jay has made would be all washed away if there was a mistake in there somehow. In fact, I kind of feel like it did happen already and there were a large number of concerns here about it when WARP switched to the play-by-play defense data, I think. Suddenly, Alan Trammell and Ron Santo, who had been well above avg b/c defense, were slightly below (IIRC). It was slightly before Jay's move to SI and his Clubhouse Confidential appearances, so it remained a reasoned and polite debate here.
If something were to happen and all of the sudden Tim Raines' numbers plummeted, I think there would be glee from JAWS' detractors and a generation-length rebirth of skepticism towards advanced metrics and HOF voting.
Is Ozuna worth a flier when I put Stanton on the DL? Seems like he could be a guy who hits 6 HR off fastballs in his first month before MLB pitchers start throwing spinning stuff at him.
What is he saying? It looks like Joe says "I got him" but he shakes his head before he says it which seems like a strange thing to do before an affirmative statement.
Does the fan say "just the f***ing son of a b**** I got on the f***ing mound" ?
Pretty much every time I try to read lips, I think its the f-word. And, presuming the fan is a local, you've got to factor in the Boston accent.
There was an article in the Boston Globe last year about fish being mislabeled and sold as a superior species. In an alternate world, Ben is a New England-based food critic obsessed with finding the chefs who can make frozen tilapia taste like Alaskan Butterfish.
How cool is it that a guy named Elroy and a guy with giant nerd glasses were considered INTIMIDATORS? They seem like such dweebs now.
I wonder if fifty years from now when Jon Rauch-sized monsters with full face tattos and names like Knife-Fight McStabsalot are closing out games, our kids will look back at Trevor Hoffman and laugh "oooohh, he ran out to a song with bells in it and threw a nasty changeup, I'm so scared! Plus, Trevor is a girl's name now."
This is great. Thanks.
I really enjoyed this. I hope that you do this kind of piece a bunch this season
Pedro's changeup was erotic. I swear I saw him start a game with three straight changeups in a three pitch strikeout. It blew my mind. One of the oldest rules for pitching was that you can't start a guy with a changeup.
Bless you all for mentioning Dave Steib as well.
I'm going to guess that there is only one Quinton McCracken out there.
Off topic a bit, but I'm reminded of something by your 'forged argument' phrasing. I feel a great affinity towards Brian Kenney but, the new ads for the show he is doing with Harold Reynolds on MLB Network are so disappointing. They amp up the Scout vs. Stats rivalry to "Trouble with the Curve" levels.
The New School is taking over!
I'm taking New School to school!
I get that he was probably forced to play the 'nerd heel' role in the ads, and good TV is different than good analysis, but man do I hope that it's false advertising.
That is a lot of info, thanks. It's all so depressing, though.
It's so much more enjoyable to read about the #sparkle in Taveras, Profar, Taillon, etc. than to address the reality that Alen Hanson isn't going to be Chase Utley. And then you get to the bottom of the Yankee list and see three guys with #slack.
The Fightin' Consonants
"Zero," he said. "One-hundred percent, I'm fine."
"every spring, pretty much."
I don't believe a word
I don't believe a word
I don't believe a word
There's a paragraph or two in one of his long season-recap pieces in which he describes the joy of having out-maneuvered a traffic jam outside Shea with a car full of friends to exuberant celebrations. I've always thought that was as important a statement on the experience of a game as his wonderful description of Mike Mussina's courtier's bow from the stretch.
Hensley used to be a town in Texas, ghost town breaks the tie?
"HENSLEY, TEXAS. Hensley, in southeastern Jack County, was named for the J. A. Hensley family, who settled in the area after the Civil War. At one time it was on the Butterfield Overland Mail route from Jacksboro, eight miles to the northwest. In the late 1890s Hensley became a flag station on the Burlington, St. Louis-San Francisco rail line. The area around Hensley remained sparsely settled by cattle ranchers, and when the railroad abandoned its line in Jack County, the community apparently ceased to exist." - Texas State Historical Society
Didn't Tony LaRussa do Three pitchers, Three Innings each back with Todd Van Poppell? That is pretty close to the all-pen staff.
Could Taylor handle the short side of a 1B platoon with Moss? Offensively, judging by his MiLB splits, he seems to hit righties better than lefties which doesn't bode well. Any chance he has the footwork to handle first in the field?
Between Rose, Show and Schott that moment carries a whole lot of epilogue pages.
Is there anyway to tell how much of the debt has been written onto the franchise's books? Is it possible that Crane put that $220m loan on the Astros? Or even all $330m?
The Glazer family did that when pruchasing Manchester United so the Glazers, personally, had very little exposure to the risk while the club assumed nearly $1b in debt. (I'm not a finance guy, so forgive me if I've used some terms incorrectly.)
I would love to Grichuk turn into something good, so he's not just "The Guy the Angels Took Before Mike Trout".
Peacock, Carter and Stassi = KG's 4, 6 and 11th ranked prospects from last year's A's Top 11. Interesting. I heart the Astros' rebuild.
How has Stassi's arm responded to the injury he had? Are his D grades still as high? I poked around for some info, but was unable to find out when/if he had surgery and if he is still seen as a plus arm behind the plate.
Roger Angell has a beautiful piece about EB White as a Personal History in the New Yorker (White was Angell's step-father). Angell recounts his own daughter's reaction to learning about the unfortunate destiny awaiting a pig at Andy's, as White's friends and family called him, Maine farm.
"Many in the family, including my children, have their own lasting and complex attachments to Andy and the Whites’ place. My daughter Alice, at about ten—an age when she’d read and been read “Charlotte’s Web” over and over again—was shocked to learn that a young pig in residence in an enclosure to the southwest of the garage would be converted to ham and bacon shortly after her departure in September. She worked late that evening, crayoning a large replica of Garth Williams’s “SOME PIG!” drawing in the book—the miracle web that saves Wilbur—and had me drive her back to the Whites’ that night, so she could secretly thumbtack it to the side of the pen. The agrarian Andy was startled but unmoved, and the pig went to his smoked reward on schedule."
Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/02/14/050214fa_fact#ixzz2GNSHO3rN
Still seems strange. The Mets wouldn't pay him like an ace, but were then able to extract an ace's price in the trade. The Jays paid an ace's price in assets, but then were able to sign him for much less than an ace's salary. Seems like a disconnect to me.
Weird that the Jays had to give up a talent package worthy of a Top 5 SP, but then only had to pay Dickey like a Top 50 SP. Either RA's got a mediocre agent or he just wanted the security of a small-outrageous fortune.
I feel like I just watched someone from "Real Genius" crack.
The Rob Neyer line gave me the lolz.
And what about Jesse Barfield for Al Leiter? Maybe that was in the season after Carter was acquired...I should check B-ref, but don't feel like it.
Didn't the Jays get Devon White from the Angels the previous day? I seem to remember a "whole new OF" narrative for some reason - plus I loved Junior Felix and he was in that White trade.
Interesting point about the aging curve...I wonder if there is a way to study that? Maybe using BA's Top 100 prospects lists, cross-checking them against Career WAR to 28 or 29 then judging aging curve? But, you'd have to account for the "unfulfilled" criteria somehow...hmm...
Yeah, I learned that you are a wasteful, repetitive and unnecessary idiot who is trying to ruin our beautiful language with your extraneous commas and use up all of our letters in your weird last name. Go back to Europe!
Also I learned that if bullpen coaches were Hall of Famers, I'd have a lot of valuable rookie cards in my dad's attic.
Paul Gauguif. That's a visual pun.
He's Leonardo Gif-inci.
Thanks Jason, I dig this kind of never-gonna-happen-but-fun-to-think-about stuff.
Can you expound on Yelich's defense? I know this is simplistic, but he stole 30 bases in '11 and 20 in '12 and KG graded him at 55-60 speed last season - how can a guy with above-average speed and some semblance of athleticism be so totally unacceptable in LF? Or is it just that his bat is so far ahead of the D, that it's not worth waiting? I can think of Gerald Perry and Gregg Jefferies, but not many others.
Very interesting, nice work Daniel.
As a counter-weight to darts1, I find that seeing the process in the matchup is more informative than anything else I can think of, even if it is SSS. I don't think its useless, unless you are trying to take it as predictive data rather than instructive data. Which isn't to say that darts1 doesn't have a good point as well.
Everybody laughs with the joke
And we're laughing
And she don't know
What it means
- 500 Up.
That's the on-the-nose one.
But, really, it makes me think of this:
"Allright/Oooooh/Out and about with the Junior Panthers."
I like to think of us BP'ers as a gang. Not a badass gang like the Hells Angels, but the kind of gang that would call themselves the Junior Panthers and feel bad about breaking laws like running red lights.
Plus, the whole 'dance in the basement', 'mother's basement' thing...
I've never felt like a bigger geek than when I laughed loudly and hardily at a Mark Trumbo UZR joke.
I gave myself a weggie.
I think that is unfair (and I'm not sure I agree with your interpretation of Navarred's comment). I've lived in NY/NJ, Boston and Chicago and at different times I've found Yankee, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs and White Sox fans all to be utterly unbearable. Nothing in my experience has lead me to believe that Yankees fans deserve more scorn than any other. And I certainly don't see why a team's fans should necessarily prevent some one for rooting for some good guys to succeed.
As with pretty much anything in life, I think a Sloan lyric might help
"If I drink concentrated OJ
Can I think Consolidated's okay?
It's not the band I hate, it's their fans
Three cans of water perverts me"
Consolidated was an activist band in the 90s (way into veganism and lefty politics) but still pretty darn good. Inevitably the most annoying kid in school loved them. It made me dislike the band for ages, but, now, I find it easy to separate the two.
It isn't? What was he saying?
I get it that Yankee fans are annoying. They are. But so are fans of every other team in every other sports everywhere in the world.* Fandom, or fanatism, by its very nature is irrational and annoying. I fail to see why Yankee misfortune is more worthy of schadenfreude than any other team's misfortune.
*Except for Pirates fans, they are delightful.
It's true. Yankees fans are the only annoying fans in the world. The only fans who brag or feel personal satisfaction from our team's accomplishments. Little known fact is that New Yorkers are the only people ever to chant "We're Number One! We're Number One!" Outside of NY, the chant is always sung "That loose conglomerate of highly-paid skilled athletes that compete under the guise of representing the city which I happen to live in is NUMBER ONE! That loose conglomerate of highly-paid skilled athletes that compete under the guise of representing the city which I happen to live in is NUMBER ONE!"
Thanks for the patronizing inspirational message, too. I'm glad to know that having grown up in a pleasant suburb, I don't have the character to be a champion. Gotta go, I'm off to quit something.
There were an inordinate number of pickoff attempts, so thank god they did have an ump on the bases. And it wasn't Balkin' Bob Davidson.
How strange that the choreographers pinpointed pick off plays as the most aesthetically pleasing of pitcher movements. Theatre people are weird...
Now, let's all get really pissed off about me thinking that Cabrera should be the MVP.
Where the hell are they in the HSM2 scene? Why are they playing "baseball" in an limestone quarry?
Were the umps really necessary? Was there some Associate Producer who was like 'woo woo woo, stop filming! This is gonna look ridiculous. For this to work, it's gotta be believable, get some fat extras in here to be umps...Palme D'Or, please!"
Listening to the Eff-Wild brought a statistics question to mind...so this is probably more for Colin than Ben.
Is a large number of small samples an adequate data set? For instance, 17 years of playoff series. That's 17 years of small sample sets, right? 5 or 7 game bursts that on their own are not statistically indicative or predictive, right? Does that inherent inadequacy (being a SSS thus untrustworthy) inhibit conclusions drawn from that data from being solid?
My guess is that it is an acceptable data set, but then I'm swayed the other way. If I took five games pitched from July of each Moyer, Pettite, Livan, Millwood, Suppan and Derek Lowe from each of the last 16 seasons, would I get an accurate read on their careers? I doubt it.
Hopefully, I was able to express my question properly.
I wish Skip's awkward tag/backwards-egg-roll didn't ruin the aesthetic, would have been even nicer with a beauty swipe tag. That was a breaking ball from Mujica as well, not an outside fastball or something easy to deal with.
I thought this article was going to be about Todd Van Poppel, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer. I'm very disappointed, though I doubt many people think about TVP as much as I do. Oh what could have been, had he been born a decade later.
I'd like to see a side-by-side of those Ump Ejections and a pitch f/x rating of their ability to correctly interpret the strike zone. I've always thought Iassogna was one of the worst, so I'm not surprised to see him listed here.
Great article; nice in-depth look at an issue most are analyzing via dime-store-psychology.
I wonder if there is a way to breakout his successful at bats (i.e. K, GBs, IF Pop Ups) vs. unsuccessful ABs (HR, LDs, BB) to see if there is a discernable difference in approach. My guess would be the results would have a heavy SSS cavaet.
Love the Tenenbaums reference.
Since most of my baseball reading is done here, at Fangraphs, or via the Sheehan NL, I've become used to such a high level of reader knowledge that I was floored by the Omar article comments. I can't believe it's still 1997 out there. I encourage everybody to go look at those comments, just to get a better appreciation of what we have here. +1 to BP.com subscribers for not being F***ING luddites.
I think it is meant to read, Starling is OLDER than Harper.
Starling is following Orson Welles' rule of making someone seem larger-than-life. Talk about him the entire first two acts, that way by the third act all he has to do is arrive and the audience will be impressed.
Robin's older brother was a hot-shot pitching prospect for the Astros in 71? 69? Somewhere around there. Called into make his major league debut in the ninth inning of a game and blew out his elbow during his warm up pitches. That. Sucks. Never pitched in the majors again.
There's a word for Russell's appeal...Branya-rotica
"Since 1961, a total of 193 players have qualified for the batting title in a season while playing at least 80 percent of their games at first base."
I think there has to be a criterion missing in that sentence, right? That would be like 5 players per season since 193. Last year alone, a couple dozen players qualified for the batting title while playing 80% at 1B. Perhaps it is missing the "ISO < .150 for at least four consecutive seasons"
I think that third paragraph needs an edit for clarity.
I will very much miss the baseball history lessons. They were always fascinating. BTW, the soccer coverage on Bleacher Report is appallingly poor; it reads as if it was written by a high school junior.
Oh no! I should have Googled it before I posted. I'm wrong. The code with SELECT is for two-players.
In my defense, I didn't own Contra; my friend Doug did, so I would only play it with two players.
Still...please minus my previous post as punishment.
up up down down left right left right b a SELECT start
You forgot the SELECT. Good luck winning Contra on three lives
Technical proficiency in music is very often, very boring. I can't think of anything more tedious than a Joe Satriani album.
Many, in fact most, of us live life in B-flat, that's why Pavement resonates.
We shouldn't confuse them being good for a reason for liking them.
I loved this article, by the way.
My favorite fact about Marconi is that he was the great-grandson of John Jameson, the whiskey guy. I like to think that Marconi's invention of wireless telephones was the earliest known attempt at a drunk-dial/booty-call.
If I understand your complaint correct, I think it may be your browser that is the problem. I still see this on articles I've read and viewed comments for:
"... more | 11 comments, 10 unread"
Any thoughts/news on what happened with Hiroyuki Nakajima? The Yanks never seemed particularly interested despite the posting fee?
Of course, I could just read this article more carefully...
"As for 2009 inductee Jim Rice, he ranks 33rd among left fielders on the JAWS scale (44.2/34.8/39.5)."
Have we seen the re-worked JAWS/WARP/VORP for Jim Rice since Colin's re-tooling? I poked through the previous articles, but didn't see it. As I will be seeing my Boston based friends in a few weeks, I'd like to be prepared for the annual "yes he does belong/no he doesn't" shoot-fest.
I was just kidding, trying to break up an uncomfortably serious post with a joke. From some of your previous comments, I didn't think I would offend, hopefully, I haven't.
Apropos of nothing...
Keving, thanks for the massive amount of production this year. In the words of Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, "good job by you!"
Jimmy McMillan, of the Rent Is Too Damn High Party, claims to have been Mel Hall's body guard. He was fired because Hall would give him 20 bucks to bribe a DJ at a club, and McMillan would skim 15 off the top.
"All of that proves that only a moral degenerate could take issue with the way Williams played the game."
Thanks for a kick-ass 2011, Jay. Nice work all year.
This seems like great news for the site. I find it comforting that BP is still trying to push itself to be better, not just more.
Highlights (for me) of 2010/11 BP:
Average of 6-7 articles per day
Jay's continued excellence
Steven's continued excellence
Kevin's unreal amount of production
Both RJ and Ben are quality writers as well
Colin's reworking of WARP (+1 for the effort)
Transactions and Salary updates
Efforts from hierarchy to improve
RichardBergstrom's 1.000 average commenting on each piece
Missing coverage of First Round of MLB Playoffs
Wonky stats pages (compare to Fangraphs, they seem ancient)
The Fantasy/Real analysis ratio seems heavy for fantasy.
Loss of another of the originals
Use of "Annual" and "BBN 2" as excuse for mistakes on site
Negativity of commenters (yes, I know)
RichardBergstrom's 1.000 average commenting on each piece
Oversights like: NL West Draft Recap
Quentin trade not in Unfiltered
At times, seems like BP doesn't take its identity as one of the few pay-sites seriously enough.
That's my two-cents, not that you asked. It's not an easy decision to spend 30-whatever bucks on a baseball website when there are many other good ones out there for free. It's even harder to then justify another $20 for the annual, at least to Mrs. Randolph3030. I'm on the fence about next season for the first time since...2004? I'm certainly more willing today than yesterday having seen this decision by BP.
A young Harvey Keitel as Phil Scrap-Iron Garner. Nick Nolte as Ed Ott who "knows something".
It surprises me that so many people are so invested in Bryce Harper's personality. As long as he doesn't cause harm to anyone, who cares if he is a jerk? What's so great about having another boring, cliche-warbling, soft-focus athlete for a cereal box? If he's a clown, let him be a clown; if you don't like his attitude, turn the volume off on ESPN's Professional Sports Pundit Perpetual Outrage Conflictinator. If you don't mind, enjoy it as one would Macho Man Savage (RIP).
Personally, I find the tacit acceptance of a bean-ball far more offensive than some punk-ish d**chebaggery. Especially considering the current plights of Justin Morneau, Brian Roberts, David Wright, and those of Don Zimmer and Tony Conigliaro.
To answer my own question a bit, below is a response that Jay gave to a similar concern in the article linked in the text.
"I highly suggest you dig back into Colin's archive and read http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11476 and
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11589 where he hits some of the big stumbling blocks that one encounters when trying to measure defense. Long story short: a single year isn't enough to reliably measure defense, so take any yearly number with a grain of salt
But remember that over time, the larger sample size should build confidence in what's being measured, at least if the methodology is sound. When it comes to measuring the Hall of Fame candidates' defense, we generally have 10-20 years worth of data, and while multiple sources may disagree as to the value of those years, they're hopefully pointing in the same direction."
I'm still not convinced (though who cares if I'm convinced), as if one year's result (FRAA) isn't reliable, isn't a career's result (FRAA) just a bunch of unreliable yearly results added together? And in this system doesn't it multiply an unreliable yearly defensive # for peak. For instance, Trammell's '87 FRAA is -2.9, yet the three surrounding seasons he's a combined +31 FRAA.
Perhaps this is a question for Colin, but color me unenthused by the changes to WARP, specifically the recalibration of the defensive numbers. I'm sure the math works out because Colin appears to be much much smarter than me (me::math as S.Marte::walks).
Trammell just lost 140 FRAA, thus completely changing his candidacy. It is as if we are discussing a different player than last year. I think you addressed this previously in response to a RichardBergstrom comment, but I must confess that I've lost some trust in the system due this seismic-ish shift.
Have you considered weighting the defensive numbers as less impactfull as the batting and baserunning due to the volatility/unreliability of fielding stats?
I dig that futility infielder Mike Tyson got linked, I had forgotten he existed.
As per his Tulo comment, I believe that table includes fielding #s which would put Jeter somewhere south of Snuffy Stirnweiss in value of that span.
I disagree. The difference in soccer is much smaller. For instance, Barca and Santos of Brazil are both in the CWC in Japan right now. Santos features three players who would walk into most top clubs in the world in Neymar, Elano and Ganso. You can't say that about any Japanese team. Tony Blanco bats cleanup for the Dragons for goodness sake.
Also, there is historical precedent of clubs from outside of Europe being among the best, if not the best, in the world from Santos with Pele, River Plate with Di Stefano, etc. There has simply never been a time when any team outside of MLB (Negro Leagues? Maybe?) has been even close.
It may be presumptuous, but its also an unassailable truth that MLB teams are simply better.
Because there are, at least plausible, alternatives to Barca from leagues not involved in the UCL. Be it Santos, Internacional, Boca, Sao Paolo, Corinthians.
There are no plausible alternatives to the MLB champion. When (5? 10, any?) the top players in the world choose to play in a league other than MLB, then the discussion of the legitimacy of the "world champion" claim can begin. Mike Tyson was not required to fight every living person to establish himself as the World Champ, nor should the Cardinals.
It should be noted that two of the big guns, Steve and Jay, went live with stuff today. So, credit where due, it was nice to have some afternoon distractions as well.
I'll start my note of agreement with a cavaet:
There was a ton of new stuff on the site everyday during the season, which was great. And it was usually up by 7 am ET so I could spend the first hour of "work" reading BP before the other widget-turners got here. So, I'm quite thankful for that.
BUT, there does seem to be a tone of "We're working on other stuff" as if that makes it okay that the subscribers aren't getting as much as we should. Being one of the few pay sites around, I, personally, don't think BP can get away with the excuse of "didn't write a new piece for BP because we're working on a BP book that we are also going to charge you for". It would be like me taking on a part-time telecommuting job and doing it at my real job's desk.
This system seems ripe for exploitation.
If three teams all offer the same amount, the shady middle-men will dictate which one the kid signs with based on "future consideration", methinks.
Reality has a well-known liberal bias
oops, hit return too quick.
It's anti-absurd, not anti-conservative/Republican. I'm shocked someone would think it was partisan.
How is The Onion liberal? It's anti-absurd.
For somebody who complained about "group think" in the original Weiters/bust article, I find it interesting that you seem to have little issue assigning the opinion of one writer to everyone else on the site.
I think you'd be hard pressed to find KG calling Weiters an epic bust, so I fail to see the necessity for the snark here. Other than to dredge up an annoying tempest from earlier this season.
Does any place serve Empanadas? Easily transportable, plenty of fillings, great with beer and even better when they sit around for a while. Plus, the more times you use the frying grease, the better they taste.
You could even have a fun vendor who throws them around a la the peanut guy. "Five Sausage and Lime Emps! Get your five sausage and lime EMPS here!" "Hey Empanada guy!" - passes the yelling down the aisle test to me.
Have you ever done a ranking of the organizations by Top 10 Talents 25 And Under? It would seem to be a better gauge of player development than just those who qualify in the prospect lists. I would guess that the M's would rank very high on that list.
In other words, despite your countless tweets, multiple articles per week, occasional cooking segments and three hour long podcasts...I'm also going to need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday, too.
Couldn't agree more. I would love to be able to love Goose, but he's such a jerk about Rivera it makes it hard.
One big difference between the workloads of the two pitchers is the quality of the batter faced. In the 70s and 80s relatively few hitters were able to punish a pitcher in comparison those of the 90s and 00s. Rivera has been amazing during in an era when middle-infielders hit 30/40/50 homeruns in a season. Most of the SS that Goose faced didn't hit 50 in a career.
I never could figure out a proper way to frame a study of results vs. top quality opposition to see who fared better against the best opponents. Results vs. players with OPS+ >100? Per season? Per career?
Get lost, troll.
I've never in my life heard anything referred to a "rulebook double". Did you really not know what he meant? Or are you just being pedantic? I'm sure you're correct, but I'm surprised that (of all things) sticks in someone's craw so much.
TLR did say after the game that he put the hit and run on in the ninth.
"Yeah, I trusted Albert could put the ball in play. In fact, the two swings that he fouled the ball off with the second baseman going over, the hole was there and all of a sudden it was first and third and nobody out and the last pitch, the guy has a very live arm and it sailed on him and he missed. I liked sending him and having a chance to open that inning up, and it didn't work."
Is there any way to look at Ron Washington and not think of this?
Is Ogando a rookie? He is in the VORP rankings and on Fangraphs, but not on the ballot.
Seconding, roarke's comment. Can only vote for one award, then nothing else works.
If I'm understanding your complaint correctly, this "in front and swipe" technique was something that Pudge Fisk came up with after losing 1975? 74? to a broken leg while blocking the plate. He felt that he would be able to preserve his lively-hood while still giving himself a good chance at the out. He, if I remember correctly, felt that he missed a lot of balls because of that short hop that comes about three feet in front of him on throws from the OF...if he could get to that ball earlier it would take care of the hard part (receiving the ball) and then he could be a shortstop applying the tag. Seems logical to me.
I wish I could remember where I read this.
Please find the complaints about Jay's terrific writing and copy and paste them below. I see none. In fact, I struggle to find harsh negativity.
If you are unable to read and comprehend measured, reasoned criticism of a site that we all clearly love then I'd suggest you are the "damn fool" and perhaps need to "grow up" seeing as you were the only one engaged in name calling.
I'm a Yankee fan. I love Jay's work...in fact I would agree that he's the Hemingway of Baseball analysis, profane, muscular writing; picking fights (and winning them when not all hopped up on Organic Peak Ale); tremendous 'stache.
To provide some evidence on my concern (because we all like data so much here):
Cliff Corcoran's preview of today's games at that magazine's website: 1400 words.
Derek Carty's preview of the entire Brewers/DBacks series: 700 words. Most of them having something to do with some movie he was in.
Today's articles: Two Fantasy, one about managers prospects, Sam Miller's great joke piece and an injury update. At least three of those have nothing to do with the playoffs and, to me, seem time insensitive enough to be pushed back a few weeks for the Hot Stove.
To be clear, the actual work is fine, but it just seems like a strange use of resources. There is a huge Sheehan-shaped hole in the postseason coverage, methinks.
I've, sadly, got to agree with darts1. At the risk of sounding churlish, I'd love to see this type of (very good) coverage shown to the other three series as well. Or at least smaller posts like RJ Anderson's about the Rays. One of my favorite things about BP is its coverage of the non-main event as defined by the mainstream media.
Plus, Rick Sutcliffe looked into his eyes...deep into his eyes...and saw the fatigue.
I seem to remember some anecdotal evidence and a study that suggested location was a better measure of fatigue (and possible injury) than velocity. I think it was a Will Carroll piece.
Delmon Young's reaction to Thome's 596th is better. Back that gif is pretty sweet. Perhaps a Top Ten short-film of the season is in order.
True about Proctor, but he was also the pitcher when Jacoby hit the homer in 14th the other day.
Proctor giveth and then giveth away again.
"it’s practically Appomattox." Classic Steve...has to bring the Yanks into every piece.
I'll get my coat...
It's like putting a racist on stage at the Apollo.
To defend Kevin, not that he needs it, he does, in general, argue to bring guys up when they are ready. I do seem to recall that he has been rather loud in his recommendation of the Jennings/Fuld switch (sorry no evidence). I don't recall specific instances of him calling for Moore to be brought, but either him or Parks said something to the effect of "Alex Torres is fine, but why not give those starts to Moore" on the podcast. Just wanted to make the point that these opinions, though written through hindsight in this piece, had been expressed by the author at the time. Also, to head off the sub-comment, I believe he's explained the difference between Hosmer/KCRoyals and Jennings/Rays situations.
Torre's quotes on WFAN with Francesa were even less forthright.
To paraphrase: "The Mets couldn't do it because every team else wasn't going to do it. They could only wear the hats if everyone was going to wear them."
Just like every team wears camouflage jerseys...oh wait, that is only the Padres. And, perhaps, NYC still feels 9/11 a bit more than, say, Kansas City, so the Mets may have more of a reason to do something.
Well done, Steve.
Brandon League, Dominant Closer. Is it bad that the first thing I read on BP is Bowden's craziness?
"20-Year Old Athlete Believes He's Indestructible" - sounds like an Onion headline. I'd argue that very very very few 20-yr olds know anything about anything, ever.
Wasn't Will Carroll's injury nexus from 20-24? He hasn't even gotten to that dangerous period yet. It's a tough spot for the DBacks, they've got to properly manage his competitiveness as much as his physical exertions, I'd imagine.
Great article, I'm thoroughly enjoying this series. Sam Miller has been cracking me up.
Has anybody seen Steven? He hasn't written anything since this article, more than a week ago.
Why not? They got a quality SP prospect for Beltran, they'd have picked up a better one for Reyes. I can't see how it would negatively impact their ability to re-sign him as an FA.
As for alienating the fan base, that's already been done. Having Reyes at short while Izzy walks the bases loaded and Turner tosses the ball into the stands for a loss, isn't going to make it hurt less. I suppose there would be a few fewer tickets sold for the rest of the season, but it's not a few tickets that are going to be what resigns Jose. The factors will be a good ballclub and a truck load of dollars.
Great call on Piazza, New York Catcher, a great song. But, it can't be Sandy Koufax, can it? Because the next line is: "He knows the drink affects his speed/he’s praying for
a doorway/ Back into the life he wants and the confession of the bench/ Life outside a diamond is a wrench"...Koufax had no drinky-drink problem that I've heard of and he was relatively quick to leave the game.
You don't think they should have traded Reyes? (A sincere question).
The only bias at BP is against poorly run organizations. I'm not sure which side of that line the Mets stand at the moment.
Money Incorporated sighting!
jeez, give the guy a chance before you jump on him with both feet. Perhaps, the Mets aren't even on the losers side; I don't think he wrote that every team had to be one or the other. You gotta let him talk before you tell him to shut up.
While I was dismayed to see the "Winners/Losers" archetype being portrayed here after flipping away from a particularly cliche-ridden piece over at yahoo re: the Trade Deadline, the quality of writing and fresh outlook on the Rasmus-situation kept your shoes clean of the usual instant, definitive assessment Around-The_Horn style muck. Well done, Steve, though I agree with buddaley and that you missed the two interesting OFs going to Seattle...I think Jack Z. did a pretty commendable job over the weekend.
I would suggest that Tim Worrell is more famous as well. He must have pitched in 500 games in his career. Probably more than his more famous brother Todd.
Oh my, that most certainly is not how I remember Dwayne Murphy. Who the hell is that?
Would it be possible for you to expand on:
"While there were some understandable thoughts that the Nationals skipped Harper past High-A Potomac due to issues with the home facilities"
without getting yourself in trouble? Is it a bad hitters park? Or, like, the whirlpool doesn't work?
Thoughts on Donovan Tate?
A bit off topic, but did anybody here John Smoltz stating 12-15 times that "NO PITCHER will EVER EVER EVER throw three straight complete games EVER again in baseball unless they are on the Phillies."
Am I wrong to look at Cole and see Ben McDonald?
The best thing about MLB Gameday Audio is that I can listen to the opposing team's broadcast of all Yankee games. I would rank Sterling/Waldman broadcast team as, if not the worst, at least in the bottom one.
And to just clarify, I agree with your other statements (in this and other comments above), in almost all other cases. For instance, signing Ryan Howard in Philly...when he's 37 and can't hit, he's not a fan-favorite anymore. The 25-year would be replacement who would be hitting would be the fan-favorite. Same goes for Posada, or others like Bernie Williams, there was an outcry when the Yanks jettisoned Bernie, but nobody cares now (except Mike Francesca). Jeter is different. When Montero comes up and starts hitting, the bozos in the Yanks radio booth will wax lyrically about his abilities the same way they do about Hip-Hip on his occasional successes.
This is not meant to be confrontational at all...but, I've got a suspicion that you aren't from Yankee-land. I think that you are missing the real-politic of the Jeter situation. The guy is The Prince of New York, he's not only the face of the organization, he's a symbol of NYC. Allowing Jeter (or forcing Jeter) to walk away from the Yankees certainly makes sense on the field, but its nonsensical in the larger picture. I love Jetes, he's The Guy for my generation of Yankee fans. I'm also well-aware that his "winner's mentality" is hurting the Yanks, and that he can't play SS anymore, and all of his hits a dinkles to short right field. But, until he falls over like a dead oak tree, he's going to be there.
And as for the "problem solved", in this alt-universe when that SS is crushed under the weight of replacing The Captain (i.e. Juan Bell/Cal Ripken) and Montero slumps through May and Jeter hits .300/.350/.350 for the Dodgers, that is a HUGE problem for all on the Yankees end.
I'm so tired of BP's anti-Philadelphia A's prejudice. I dare Pecota to show its face at Shibe Park.
Interesting...so you don't think that the Yankees are limiting innings to make sure that he has some available for the Majors in Aug or Sept? The Manny Rules?
playER would thrive.
Write better, please.
The author didn't state that "all" or "any" NPB position play would thrive. Only that some "can". Read better, please.
And Japanese naming conventions are such that the family name (Suzuki) is presented first, and the given name (Ichiro) is presented second. SO, having "Suzuki" on his back would actually be the "absurd practice" that so enrages you.
Dude, just love how awesome Ichiro is. And how cute that kitten is.
"What do you want me to do?" the scout asked. "This is what I do for a living, and anyone who does what you or I do has absolutely no reason whatsoever to ever complain."
I'm assuming this wasn't the Professor you were sitting next to, right? Not exactly his mantra...
Oh come on! Is everybody going to leave? Where is the Liberal Arts department at BP now? Where are the [i] writers [/i]? It can't all be numbers...ugh.
best of luck, go teach those bozos a thing or two. About baseball and the Revolutions of the 1840s.
oh Ten Packs. It's so nice to have you back. Nothing interesting to say, besides.
1. I'm not a Sox fan, but John Valentin, who always seemed a bit dour, getting all misty eyed when he returned from another long injury absence and getting a HUGE standing ovation in his first at bat back. He had to step away and do that "it's sure is dusty in here" I'm-not-crying thing. I'm pretty sure he drilled a double off the wall in that at bat
2. Denny Hocking, switch hitter, good arm, could play everywhere but catcher. A great bench player playing full time for some crummy Twins teams. Always my first trade in XBox/Playstation Baseball.
Also of note in the debate, I think, is that Will Carroll noted that Joba's shoulder might not warmup quickly enough in a recent UTK. Judging by Chamberlain's season first inning struggles, including diminished velocity, maybe he is not physically set to be a reliever right now anyways.
Great editorial Joe. You just reminded me to renew my subscription.