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Was Berrios far off, and can you see him
moving up for next year?
Great work. The thing that strikes me about this list is the big drops are mainly pitchers; Bauer, Martinez, Hultzen, Teheran, Perez, Odorizzi, Lee, and Paxton.
On the flip side, you've got Wheeler, Fernandez, Syndergaard, Archet, Barnes and Rosenthal making huge leaps.
We all know (and this supports) TINSTAAP, but given these wild swings in rankings, and general uncertainty with them, perhaps the pitchers should all be discounted heavily to begin with, and less pronouncement placed on most recent year's performance
I also think there is a decent chance Benson wins the CF job out of spring training, and he does well. He has already played at the MLB level; Hicks hasn't played above AA ball, and it would make sense for them to save a year of Hicks by delaying him until June. Mastro isnt a great option, but he (sort of) has the incumbency thing going. I'd rank them:
Prophetic, Luke. Although I'm guessing not the two OF you may have guessed.
Actually, if a hockey player does a thing that something about the other guy's thing, the thing DOES get unhockeyed. Don't you know anything about hockey?
If we want to find an ideal situation from the fan's standpoint (while disregarding Player's Association objections), why not throw the following into the mix for discussion purposes:
An 8 hitter lineup.
No pitcher hitting, no designated hitter.
The look back at 2010 is one of the reasons I wish they would have signed Oswalt rather than Marquis.
I wonder if the Astros think he could be better as a closer than as a starter, and thus be a more attractive trade option? There's little chance that he'll have his 2010 again. But what if he has a dominant year as a closer? Then he'd be one among few dominant available relievers. As an average starter, there would be many similar commodities available. I don't necessarily think this is a good strategy, but it may be their strategy.
Andruw Jones was once pulled mid-inning. It made a lasting impression on the fan, if not the player.
Does anyone know of any stories or studies that looked at a greater degree of home field advantage that for instance put 5 and 7 game series like this respectively for the lower seeded team:
ragert, this is probably one of those tangibles-y type things that are hard to quantify, but from another point of view I almost see it as a pschological advantage to be the away team. Games at home are considered must win and games on the road are games you try to steal a win in. Thus when an away team wins one or both of the first two games, they've "stolen" home field advantage. The away team comes away knowing they can win on the road and the home team has had their confidence deflated.
With regard to the above discussion of mouthguards, I recently heard that mouthguards are thought to prevent or minimize the occurrence of concussions. It is a topic of debate however. I quickly found this article: http://dentistry.about.com/od/issuesandemergencies/f/concussion.htm although I'm sure there is more and better information available.
I remember reading in a free paper handed out in the stadium of Screech's birth, and it was confirmed elsewhere on the web:
HomeStand, the rag paper handed out at Stadium/Armory Metro and along the sidewalks leading up to RFK Stadium, had an article on the genesis of Screech, our new fluffy mascot, where it was revealed that he (?) is the bastard love child of Slapshot and Youppi!
(Slapshot being the bird mascot of the Washington Capitals.)
Not a single BP staffer sees Francisco Liriano finishing in the top 3 in the Cy Young balloting. Just noting that.
It will be nice to see both of them bounced in the first round by Jim Thome and Cliff Lee.
1)I like the fact that you are going to the community for the book title.
2)I think a lot of the suggestions are either too clever, or revolve too much on Joe's name.
3)My suggestion is a little more conventional, but still has a baseball/BP/double meaning:
Replay in football has changed the game...frequently the ball is marked at the half yard pine as the knee is down. Before replay, those plays are always ruled touchdowns.
For baseball, a lot of "neighborhood" outs would be ruled safe.
I don't necessarily think either of these changes is an improvement. However, if that is the price to pay to eliminate a bunch of egregious calls, it is worth it. The game should be about the players, not the umps.
Those are actual PECOTA numbers for Pavano? Doesn't BaBIP get factored in? He'll easily surpass those numbers. Slowey won't walk near that many guys either...if healthy, he'll beat those numbers.
PECOTA has consistently lowballed the Twins over the past two years. I'm surprised to see an 83 win prediction, but at least your edging up closer to what should be expected. I see them in the high 80s at least, with several high upside possibilities...Liriano, Delmon most notably.
It's interesting the Cubs didn't offer Harden arbitration. The Twins claimed him on waivers last August, but the Cubs wouldn't trade him. Now they let him walk for nothing. Why didn't they take something from the Twins, at least?
"Predictably, this article was received quite well with the Baseball Prospectus crowd, and rather skeptically by many other baseball fans."
Are statistics now being developed to quantify readers of articles, instead of baseball players?
Let me throw out an idea regarding extra down time due to instant replays to make correct calls:
What if during an instant replay the network goes to a commercial (or 2), then when there is an actual commercial break it is 1 (or 2) commercials fewer?
I have to think that the players do not need as much time to switch sides as the commercial breaks give them.
Joe, the line-up may appear weak, but they have been scoring a lot of runs in their late season streak.
Granderson is terrible against LHP. Any reason Mahay should have faced him to start the 9th?
How is Livan Hernandez easily employable but Pedro isn't?
So much for the easy money I thought I made betting that Kniker would be kicked off. Does anyone ever have anything good to say about this guy's writing? Seriously, excellent job each round.
And so much for subliminal messaging... Will includes a link to those two hot babes in Tyler's comment section and still no love. FYI, the best photo is the last one.
Joe, I was at that game with my son...were you sitting on the first base side lower level, wearing a throwback Twins jersey?
The Twins hit the ball all over the lot that game, just didn't manage to score much. Adam Jones is good, but once his average cools off, he'll look fairly pedestrian.0
Second on the predictratron.
John Dewan recently pointed out that defense is half as important as hitting. Yet, I don't see defense factored into this analysis.
I think the key is the fact that Wieters hasn\'t played above AA (and only about half a season at AA). I think it\'s insane to think Weiters will hit his PECOTA weighted mean. Look at Jay Bruce and Alex Gordon, how did that go?
The competition is 15% tougher as you move up each league in the minors, and there is a big 25% in the competition difference from AAA to MLB. Assuming a young player improves 10% each year (by aging and facing tougher competition or learning the competition), we could possibly (or impossibly) expect Weiters\' .365/.460/.625 to increase to .401/.506/.687 this year. But then factoring in his leap to MLB and the basically 40% tougher competition, he would clock in at .256/.322/.438. Maybe that\'s low, but I\'d buy that more than .311/.395/.544.
If he kept improving at a 10% clip in MLB for two years, he would reach .310/.390/.530. That kind of looks like his PECOTA, now, doesn\'t it?
So, it looks like PECOTA is giving Wieters full credit for playing at his full potential at MLB this year, when it should be factoring in the tougher competition.
[Aside--It also looks like PECOTA only looks at his AA numbers. If you take his averages for last year, his projection should come out even lower. Let me put it this way...would you project a High-A player who hits .345/.448/.576 to hit .311/.395/.544 in MLB a year later?]
I love PECOTA, but I think that this projection is selling the Twins\' HR totals short on the following players:
Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, and probably Crede. The only one of this bunch I\'m not confident about beating their HR PECOTAs is Mauer. The Twins still will be low in the HR department, but this is significantly selling them short.
How is defense factored into this analysis? The Twins D will be signicantly improved this year....no Lamb, more Crede, more Span, no injured DY, no injured Everett. Playing 2 CFs for this pitching staff is a real positive.
Great list, KG, looking forward to the write-up in the book.
Well, Carrasco\'s a 5-star, and F-Mart\'s a 4-star...kind of looks like there are 43 5-star players according to KG.
I\'d also be interested to know the magnitude in difference, in your opinion, between 5 and 4.
I assume, for example, that Carrasco and Halman are closer in your rankings than Carrasco and FMart, right? Or is there a pretty fine line between 5 stars and 4 stars?
(And yes, I know it is an art, not a science.)
Now I am beginning to understand the various Jenn Sterger comments over the years.
The Red Sox fans who left the park in the top of the 7th must be feeling really proud of themselves.
Gabe Gross made at least three terrible plays in this game. He should have dove for Pedroia\'s single--with a 6 run lead, you want outs, rather than saving extra bases. That ball should\'ve easily been caught. He also should\'ve caught Drew\'s game winner easily, and then his \"throw\" home was pathetic. I believe there was also a deep ball in the corner that he should have caught earlier in the 7th?