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I would take it as a guy that can contend for batting titles like an Ichiro, Boggs, Mauer, Gwynn, Ted Williams type.
I wonder what Altuve's hit tool was rated when he was a prospect and what it'd be rated now.
I had no idea Javy Lopez was such a good receiver. Is it possible that catching a staff with three Hall of Famers of which two are noted control artists (which I'm sure influenced umpires) is having an effect on his results? Is there a way of seeing if there was a huge difference between Javy and his backups during the same period of time?
As someone that has subscribed to Baseball America for 20 years and BP since day one, I'd like to say that you guys are on the verge of overtaking them on the prospect front. They still have the edge just due to the sheer volume of prospects they cover but in terms of quality the edge goes to you guys. Every year you up your game. Kudos.
The Knapp and Gallo write ups were very interesting.
This is awesome but putting the date of the quote by the scout would be useful. I;m guessing the Jup quote was from a few weeks ago since he's gone 0 for 12 recently and is swing right through 93 mph fastballs.
Compare Flores and Rafael Montero please. That scouting report sounded a lot like Montero.
In a deep league where I need saves and power would you roster Farnsworth or Dietrich?
Barry Bonds was amazing. The Cy Young stat is unbelievable.
Any chance you could do this using Bonds' best season pre-roids?
Guzman looks a lot like Adrian.Gonzalez at the plate.
This looks like a great product and I'd buy it except that all fantasy drafts will be done by the time it's released. A better time frame for next year would be the beginning of March.
And Kole Calhoun batting leadoff for the Angels deserves mentioning.
If AJax hits 5th as rumored I'd put him on the RBI list.
Before the draft many questioned BB's hit tool. It was specifically mentioned in almost every BA analysis of him.
This is a tremendous article. Well done.
Sick article, sick swing.
Try teaching your kids to hit like that.
I didn't see enough athleticism for Flores to play SS consistently.
Good one. Darryl Strawberry and Jay Buhner would be interesting as well.
And from what I just saw of Javier Baez destroying a baseball he's definitely going to be a fun one to follow.
Watching Peralta and MCab at SS & 3rd base was a joke last year. The worst range for a 6&% combo I've ever seen. There was one Fister start in which Peralta allowed three infield hits. I felt bad for their picthers.
This is awesome. As a hitting junkie I'm looking forward to the rest of the series. A few guys I'd love to see an analysis on: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Eric Hosmer (specifically the changes he made last season with George Brett to stop locking up his swing), Frank Thomas (a guy that almost always lifted his back foot off the ground).
Kudos to the entire BP Prospect team. As much I liked Prof. Parks I was very disappointed when KG left. But the new prospect team of Jason x2, Zach, Mark, and Chris has blown everything previously done by BP on prospects out of the water. Very impressive.
Someone mentioned this is the comments section of the previous Eyewitness Accounts but it'd be awesome to have Doug comment on the mechanics of each if only briefly.
No need to relegate him to the bullpen yet. I'd give him the rest of this season and offseason to see if he can find a workable breaking ball although with his arm action I don't know if that's possible.
He looks like a great candidate to add a splitter or cutter to his arsenal.
Will Jace Petersen of the Padres be discussed? As a football player learning to play baseball he's made steady progress thus far in his career and may be a late bloomer.
The most stunning thing about this article is that Carlos Marmol has two of the best seasons by a reliever over the last 10 years.
Seeing as how TB works miracles with pitchers with good stuff and bad results I'm betting they do a good bit of tinkering with Fausto...er...Roberto Hernandez.
Awesome as always.
I believe James Shields had poor posture. Wonder if that had anything to so with why they traded him.
On a side note, could you please do an article on the Padres and what they are doing organizationally developing pitchers? Casey Kelly is now headed under the knife. That's a lot of TJ injuries for the Padres over the last two years.
"Further, if you’re a proponent of the “flags fly forever” school of thought."
Who isn't a proponent of this school of thought? Winning the World Series is the ultimate goal and if you accomplish this goal anything that it took to make it that far was worth it.
Sounds like great stuff. My only request would be for Professor Parks to bring back his "Present, Future, Longshot" series where he discussed the present best player at a position, the prospects that could be the next big thing, and then the longshot prospects. That wad a great series.
Great stuff Jason. Archer reminds me of Edwin Jackson when he was first in the majors. That slider is sick.
It sounds simplistic but yes, pretty much. Look at how many big ticket free agent hitters vastly underperform their career norms in year one of their deal with a new team.
This series is awesome.
The Nats have another pitcher in Zimmerman that's in his second year post TJ that looks fatigued and probably shouldn't go over 185 innings this year yet there is no talk about shutting him down. Can you do a breakdown on him?
An individual's comfort level (or lack thereof) can have an impact on their performance (see Carl Crawford in Boston). While baseball is a game of individual matchups the players are still human and learning a new city and getting to know your teammates in the midst of a high pressure pennant race is a lot, even for professionals. The Dodgers didn't just make one change, they completely revamped their roster. If they make it to the playoffs they will be the most dangerous NL team participating but we may not see the payoff of all their moves until next year when i expect them to win 100 games.
25 is the general innings increase I've seen, especially for a young starter coming off TJ.
What's interesting, and something that no one is talking about, is that Zimmerman should be shut down around 180 innings. The Nats need Oswalt.
It's always amazing to me that a professional athlete can struggle with some of the simplest things on a baseball field like fielding a single in the OF.
KG, can you compare Nicolino to Cole Hamels at the same stage of their development?
I'd pay money for one of these on Adam Dunn.
Adam Dunn never had massive contact problems at the minor league level.
"His primary problem hasn't been fastball velocity, it has been fastball location;"
Actually it's both. His fastball location has never been Halladay or Lee like but it had the life and velocity to make batters miss or foul it off for a strike. Now that the velocity has dipped that lack of fine location is leading to the FB getting pounded.
I know its unconventional, but what about jumping Gattis to AAA if he continues to destroy A+ and they don't want to mess with Christian at AA
Piazza couldn't throw to save his life but he did everything else you want a catcher to do as well as any big name catcher I've seen. He called a great game, blocked the plate well, framed pitches, blocked balls in the dirt, and gave the pitcher an excellent and steady target. I'm happy to see some stats showing that this was the case.
Which helps explain why he's so good at unearthing gems and so bad at evaluating how much to pay established vets.
That's great stuff on Stanton. I didn't know he had only been playing baseball for 5 years.
I've hear that Ichiro has totally revamped his batting style. Any comments on that for those of us who haven't been able to see it.
Awesome article. I'd like to read the entire thing. What made you dig up this nugget?
Do you have an opinion on whether you think Anderson will return to preTJ form?
Respectfully disagree. If the Giants win the west (I already consider them a contender) it will be because of better than expected contributions from the Milkman, Surkamp, Zito, Belt, Crawford, Pagan, et. The other guys are known quantities at this point.
Wouldn't reverse-engineering BABIP based on the depth chart data have built in bias? For instance, Greinke's BABIP is projected to be .291. Doesn't this number already take into consideration the quality of the Brewer's defense and not just Greinke's own ability to control (or not) base hits?
Awesome. Thank you.
So are the FRAA numbers an accurate way of gauging how good teams are going to be defensively in 2012?
I used team Def efficiency as my measure of how good teams were in 2011. Obviously FRAA is a different metric but I'm just trying to find a way of projecting 2012 defensive performance.
Per 2011 Team defensive efficiency the Giants were the 6th best defensive team in MLB and the Dodgers were 9th. Per FRAA the Giants now project to be 27th and LAD projects to be 26th. That's a huge swing - any idea why? Does going from Beltran and Torres to Pagan and Schieholz really make that big a difference? Does losing Jamey Carroll really hurt the Dodgers that much?
I'd love to see a "Visual Depth Chart" for defense only.
One of the reasons I'm asking is because TB led the majors with a .735 team Def Efficiency last year but this years they are projected with 18.4 FRAA. Boston was 8th in 2011 with .715 DE yet are projected to have 31.5 FRAA in 2012. That's a huge difference.
I asked this before but didn't get an answer - does anyone know where I can find projected team defensive numbers for 2012, be it by FRAA or Def Efficiency?
Is there someplace I can find projected 2012 defensive babip by team?
I remember KG being the first one ont he Szczur bandwagon early last season. He cooled on his a bit as he advanced up a level and his game was exposed. I think everyone is waiting see what sort of adjustments he makes.
Interesting as always. The only thing that surprised me was Brandon Jacobs at 48.
Apparently Bundy should have been the first pick in last year's draft. The 17 picks for the 2011 draft on the list:
Another few guys will probably make it next year like Anderson, Swihart, Cron, and Guerrieri.
Not KG, but I think Moore will be better than Strasburg. His stuff is just as good and his delivery is cleaner. I can easily see them both winning Cy Youngs in the future.
Why are you glad you're not Cashman? Did something happen that I missed?
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Gordon Beckham as well. As although he's not where near a young player what is your opinion of Adam Dunn for this year and the future?
The the Tigers are a legit WS contenders for the next 3 years because of this deal you're go to be happy with that as a fan. Who cares about 2016?
Why did he NEED to sign Krod? Paying $8m for a set-up man is a waste of money. The KRod gamble was a HUGE f' up by Melvin.
Agreed. And the Reds have the SP depth to send him to the minors if they want to.
That surprised me a swell.
Agreed, he's the Jim Rice of pitchers and shouldn't be in the Hall.
But this game was one of the best I've ever seen. Both pitchers were awesome and to go 10 IP in Game 7 of the WS is probably something we won't see again.
I've read very similar thoughts on Madson from other baseball insiders as well. MY own personal observation was that he could not handle the closer role (based on his performance prior to 2011). Great stats otherwise, but a choker when closing.
At the end of the day, he proved he can not only handle the closer role but dominate. JMHO, but he was the best closer available on the market this year via trade or free agency.
At a BP book chat a few years ago at Petco Park with Sandy Alderson I asked him this very question. Obviously Sandy is a very intelligent man and he basically answered with "time-value of money, blah, blah." As a someone in the finance/accounting field I understand time value of money and I completely disagreed with his answer then (and still do).
When dealing with free agents I think matching money with the years of more predictable production is the route to take. Baseball players aren't machines that you can reasonably predict their performance (and maintenance costs) for seven years down the road. Yes, we all have an idea how a guy should age but human beings (especially in the post-steroid era) are much more likely to deviate from that "projected" performance.
The 1st three years of a deal are usually the ones in which you can best predict a player's performance - match their highest annual salaries with those years or use signing bonuses to front load a free agent deal. This would decrease the risk of having a player giving you 5m production with a 20m salary in year five.
If you want Prince Fielder offer him a five year, 130m. Front load it so that 100m is paid out over the first three years of the deal, say a 10m signing bonus, and then salaries of 30,30,30,20,10. Given the fear of Prince not aging well due to body type at least you're only on the hook for a combined 30m for his age 31 and 32 seasons. But barring disaster you should be getting your monies worth in the first three years. You aren’t necessarily going to get fair “value” for your money (MORP of $25m versus $40m outlay in year one alone) but if your team is close enough to winning within the next three years to be considering Fielder then you can justify overspending.
Wow, this trade is awful for the Padres. I live in SD but am not a fan of the team. I can’t see how this makes them a better organization. Cashner's a hard throwing righty with rotator cuff issues that are significant enough to warrant a move to the pen. Rizzo may end up being Choi 2.0 but I’d rather take my chances with him. So you traded AGonz for Kelly, Cashner, and Reymond Fuentes? After the Alonzo trade I figured they’d move Rizzo or Alonzo for a MI prospect, not a pitcher with a bad rotator cuff.
He reminds me of Wandy Rodriguez.
Nice comp. My first thought reading the Yelich write up was "this sounds like Jeremey Hermida."
JMHO, but I think those numbers are low for Cuddyer in Coors (except the SBs). Unfortunately, he doesn't qualify at 2B in any of the leagues I play in.
What is the roster? 2 C, 1B, 5 OF, etc? That context is necessary for evaluating your squad.
Is Yu a ground ball or flyball pitcher?
I'm hoping the Nats jump into the mix.
Hunter S. Thompson would be proud. So weird but so brilliant.
Bingo. That's my biggest problem with the entire thing.
Interesting comparison. I'd be curious in hearing the answer as well.
I live in SD but am not a Padres fan. I have watched the team closely. My thoughts:
Blanks should be playing in LF. His defense is surprising sound and there's potential with the bat.
Venable is a waste of time as a starter. Need a better RF. Markakis' game is perfect for SD and Petco but I don't think there's any way Angelos allows his pet cat to be traded. I'd love to see LoMo in SD but I doubt the Marlins trade him. Joyce? Maybe but not sold on his game...Love Reddick but can't see the BoSox trading him. Is Darnell the answer? I'd go with him before Venable.
Latos making it through the season without a catastrophic injury is a major win for this season coming off the extra heavy workload last year. Richard wasn't as lucky but he's not as talented either.
Rizzo should play everyday at 1st. Let him learn and adjust at the MLB level like the Mariners are doing with Smoak.
I guess Headley is what he is - a .400 OBP 3B. Bill Mueller without as good a glove. I guess he's fine as long at he's batting two in the lineup.
Maybin is a player. Luebke has become a pretty good pitcher as well.
The farm system looks strong going forward and the future for the Padres should be bright if their young players develop as hoped.
Close to a decade ago WR Joey Galloway was having repeated issues with his legs which threatened his career since he was a speed based player. One offseason around the age of 34 he worked with a leg guru on a special training program and the leg issues disappeared for the remainder of his career. Cruz and Reyes need to find that guy.
Christian Villanueva's upside?
What's your problem with Mike Rizzo?
I agree. No need to blow it all up unless they think they can get a ton of value for Shields right now. If you're a contender that needs SP you pony up big time prospects for that guy. The Reds would be a great match in terms of farm systems.
TB doesn't really "need" Upton anymore as they can go forward with an OF of Guyer, Jennings, Joyce. They can also get nice value for him as well.
Oh yeah. I second this comment.
For this game a prospect maven or scout needs to be in the booth to give fans an education about what they are seeing on the field and how it translates to the major leagues. Or to point out the flaws or positive attributes of a player.
For example, you see Paul Goldschmidt's stat line and think "future stud" but a lot of scouts question his success at the MLB level. It would have been nice to have heard why. Wil Meyers looked awful yesterday but a scout or KG/Callis/etc could have said, "he's got an advanced approach, will fill out as he matures, etc." If I didn't know who he was I would have thought he was a non-prospect.
I hate ESPN in general for a lot of reasons, among them being the fact that they think their viewers are collectively a bunch of morons that can't understand technical aspects of the games they are watching.
I usually watch a pitcher's arm action and then look at the gun. When Moore delivered the ball I thought, "91/92." Then I saw then gun and my jaw dropped.
Good to hear about Miller because I was left thinking he was overhyped based on what I saw yesterday.
Three quick questions:
Who's a better prospect, Seager or Liddi? Does Liddi have the athleticism to move to LF?
What's Spangenberg's speed on the scale? How do scout's think it will translate to the basepaths? Does he have SB awareness?
Love to see Vaughn's approach at the plate being so sound but what's going on with the power?
Rizzo was foolishly rushed to the bigs. There was no reason not to leave in in AAA until September to further consolidate his skills. I don't think it'll do any long term damage but I do think that it cost them an extra year of cost control.
Hello Lyle Overbay
I have flashbacks of Cliff Floyd everytime I see a throw moving the 1B into the runners path.
Has Choo lost any bat quickness? Not strength, but bat quickness? A scout would have to answer that question but maybe you have a contact or something.
Re: Salas and his outing Tuesday. He came into the game in the 8th with the bases loaded and no outs and managed to escape that inning without allowing a run. He was clearly a little gassed in the 9th but did a tremendous job overall.
Exactly what sort of shoulder issue are we taking about here? The ways your guys talked it sounds like his arm is going to fall off.
Not trying to be critical and thanks for the info, but those are very strong comments.
Love this stuff, John. Any chance you can get a Scout's View on Jason Bay?
Hamilton was injury prone before his drug use so I think that he just lacks the 6th skill of good health. If I remember correctly he starting using drugs when he was rehabbing a back injury (although I do believe the injury was from a car accident). I also think I remember a foot injury pre-drug use.