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The Nationals were hamstrung from the very beginning of their existence by Selig's decision to kick the can down the road; instead of having the other owners pay Angelos for moving a team into "his" territory, Selig gave the O's the rights to the Nationals TV package. Hence MASN.
This was designed to be a long term revenue source to Angelos that declined over time. The O's get about 1.7x the worth of a TV contract here, benefitting from the Nationals' success over the last few years and a massive uptick in MASN ratings, while the Nationals fail to benefit from their hard work and success in player development.
Essentially, the Nats' success enabled the Orioles to overpay for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span>!
The Orioles' offer for the Nationals TV rights is embarrassingly low; they are simply working the process to take full advantage. The courts are the only way to fix these problems. And Angelos seizes on every technicality to delay and reduce the value of the Nationals franchise.
Pinder looked a bit lost on Saturday night; committed one error, rushing a throw because he didn't field the ball cleanly, had a second error ruled a hit, and misplayed a third ball and rushed a throw, narrowly getting a slow guy to avoid a third error... bat seemed more confident than glove.
Heaney would be pretty obvious and perhaps even a mixed league target. He is either owned or the subject of intense FAAB right now. Not under the radar.
Is there a BP local for DC or DC-Balt in the works?
Seems like he's had only about 10 days of service on active rosters outside of September: 3 days in June 2012 and a week or so in August 2013. B-R agrees he's still a rookie.
sadly, me too.
Myers is entering his third season; confused about the ROY comment. Perhaps you meant he has potential to recapture his ROY performance?
What about the pitches that are called strikes at the ankles or way outside? Or both? Lorenzo Cain did a study of those, if I recall.
Further, knowing the umpire is calling ankle-high strikes means you've got to swing at that crap, and that lowers batted ball productivity as well.
Call the zone.
Good stuff. How Storen and Clippard and even Soriano (three clean innings in the series) watched and waited while Stammen gave up a key run in Game 1...and Barrett and Roark (two innings in Saturday's marathon) Tuesday...makes no sense. Watching Joe Torre getting the Yankees through late innings year after year by asking more of his stars, rather than save them and try to skate by with the B team should teach you something.
Clippard should have pitched the seventh in Games 1 and 4, and start the eighth. If Storen is the designated closer, then you bring him in to finish the eighth if needed, or start the ninth. But do NOT reach down to the second tier to try to escape the seventh to keep the other guys in their "comfortable" role.
This reflects how I felt about the game; to take it a step further, the plate umpiring in this series has been simply awful. I was at Games 1 and 2, and both HP umps were wildly inconsistent. Both teams were complaining frequently, capped by Cabrera's justified explosion in the 10th inning. The pitch he was called out on was on the absolute outside corner but his frustration was generated by the previous call, which was higher, and outsider. (Those two calls took him from 3-1 to out...of the game...)
Of course, they shouldn't have been playing at that point, since in the 9th with two out, Zimmermann had thrown 4 strikes to Joe Panik, who was mysteriously awarded first base as a result. I think Williams took Zimmermann out because the umpire was in his head, and Matt didn't want his starter to feel compelled to lay a pitch in the center of the zone just to see if any strikes were available; that would enable Posey to get something to drive. I suppose that was Storen's destiny.
And I thought Laz Diaz was bad in Game 1.
So the Nats should be resting for Game 1 of the NLCS, but will have to do it the hard way. By the way, I take nothing from the Giants pitching, which has been outstanding, and put equal or more blame on the Nationals' free-swinging ways. At least they haven't been passive. But they made Yusmeiro Petit look like Walter Johnson.
Minor quibble...i do enjoy these articles.
How did Francis earn the save in the 14th if he got the A's out of a jam in the 13th?
My understanding of the draft pick penalty is that the signing team forfeits their pick...but the player's previous team does not receive a compensatory pick (this was a change in the last CBA; they used to get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds).
The Red Sox, along with a few teams who had already forfeited their pick due to previous signings, were among the few teams who did not have to pay an additional penalty to sign Drew. Had they been forced to give up a pick, I'm guessing they would have shied away...
It's a steep penalty, and one that the Players Association is going to push hard to remove.
Not that you asked me... :-)
Tyson Ross first: San Diego and strong breakout
Miller next: strong lineup should maintain win totals even if he has a bit of a sophomore slump
Wheeler: maybe a year away from breakout. Plus weak team behind him and at plate. Too much uncertainty for me.
Caveat: as a Mets fan I am prone to the classic Mets fan self-loathing reflex, especially in the spring. These are all pretty good options. Ross is probably the least injury-vulnerable, being the oldest of the three. That would also support that.
Interesting, but it's the most fervent owners (and BP fantasy clients) that play in AL- or NL-only. How about some love for us?
No kidding...a year removed from a top 10 MVP finish and now he's below Smoak and Vogelbach?
He projects to play every day in 2014 on a good team, and he's younger than Werth. Even hitting sixth he will help somebody's fantasy team, and not cost so much that if you drop him due to injury or a typical slow start he'll leave a gaping hole.
Marking this comment down for unnecessary attitude. The mistake is more than offset by this line:
"Hard cheeses have better shots against graters than Young does against right-handed pitchers..."
Being right doesn't mean you get to know what the source of the mistake was. Could have been a typo, and these happen. Settle down, Francis.
Nice Smiths reference. plus plus plus
And they would offer to let the Angels keep 9 of the 10 guys on the list as a favor. Right?
The scoring is wrong on the Castro play; the runner slowed almost to a stop a second but continued to third when the outfield lollygagged it in collecting and then returning the ball to the infield. Two errors on the play.
Cory Luebke is well on his way to becoming a star; his numbers are very similar to Brandon Beachy, and allows about 1.1 BR per nine. Darn TJ. Check back in mid 2014, after he's been back a year.
Seems like $114M for the tail years of A-Rod, PEDs or not, should lead the list...this year is already a lost cause and the moment the stink of drug use comes out, the speculation is that the Yanks want to void his contract!
Timing is better than precision. Rather have 85% of the goodness in January or early February than 95% in mid March.
I hate, hate, hate to say it, but dropping Strasburg makes the Nats dependent on Detwiler in a critical game 4...with no other options (other than Gio on short rest).
It may seem that the division title came easily to Nats fans, but really how often does any team enter the playoffs assured of home field for as long as they're winning? While mostly healthy? They could play really well for the next six seasons and not have this kind of advantage going into the playoffs.
I understand why they did what they did, but we'll never know if it cost us a shot at the title. Unless these four guys get it done.
If this were available in March, that would be one thing....how much of BP's audience spends its money because they play in fantasy leagues (vs. just being a fan?)....
Extremely worthwhile, thanks for the article!
Hey I was going to point that out. Kudos!
I like pleated khakis. Why the hate?
Odd...nowhere does it say that this is AL only, and the graphic says "All 30 teams"...no big deal, but confusing.
Insiders are for ESPN...can you clarify?
What a challenge to try to determine a measure of impact and accountability! There is so much latitude and discretion; how do you determine schedule? You never run out of things to investigate, to compare. Small sample size error abounds. How much is luck?
Scouts are lionized for hard work, low pay, dedication to the game; how much of the success is the individual versus the organization? How much is luck versus skill?
So many questions!
No, the 25-man Major League roster (plus DL). If they want to send them back to the minors, they have to offer them back to their original team for half the claiming price ($25K), or work out other considerations.
Assuming facts not in evidence....
Mac sales are up, iPod sales are up if you include iPhones -- and they are iPods, to be sure, just with more function -- and oh by the way they are making $4 billion a year in profit.
The iPad has upside for growth, unlike the Netbook market. In terms of shareholder value, AAPL rocks, and to the user, the value proposition is strong for many market segments.
I will pay more for elegant technology just like other people will pay a premium for high-end automobiles or neckties or artwork.
And I agree that the Apple hardware/software of the 1990s was overpriced and undergood. But they are completely on top of the heap right now.
As an aside, I wonder if the "Unfiltered" articles are not edited to the same standards as the rest of the site.
There are three glaring errors in Will's piece -- "whinging", and "who's",= and "it's" as possessives -- I caught in a quick read. Not a real big deal, but everything that adds to the appearance of the site helps to promote it.
As a Apple enthusiast for 30 years, starting with the IIc, and on my ninth Powerbook/Macbook, third iPhone, and (here's the proof) two Apple TVs (!), I counter the argument that Apple products are "outrageously" priced by insisting that design, ease of use, and quality mean something. $1500 for a laptop that rocks is a good deal when you compare it to an $800 laptop that provides headaches, fails to exceed expectations, and forces you to beta-test a crappy operating system and be on the front lines of the Malware Wars.
And the MLB::Apple marriage on the iPhone and iPad are absolutely the sweet spot for someone like me (or Will)...the best of entertainment, information, and technology, in a useful and affordable form factor.
Okay, rant over. Pitchers and catchers, hooray!
Speaking of PECOTA.... when are the cards and the 2010 PFM expected?
I'm not sure there's any way to quantify "most" but having run a fantasy stats sports service for 15 years, I can say that the earliest any of my customer held a draft or auction was about March 15th every year.
Unless you're doing an all-star league with both leagues eligible and going only 8-10 owners deep, you can't do a draft in the winter without having to do a bunch of add/drops prior to Opening Day.
I would be very interested to know what kind of leagues BP readers play in. Straight Roto? Yahoo points-style? Scoresheet?
I play in two NL-only and one AL-only (12 teams each). Keeper leagues, 5x5 categories, auction style. Generally very close to RLB standard.
I was confused at first too; the title is "Rankings in Review" but the text doesn't make it that clear. The dead giveaway is that Soriano is ranked #2!
Yes, this is a review of the 2009 preseason rankings. The big question for 2010 is no doubt whether Daniel Murphy will slot in at the top of the LF or 1B list. ;-)
Thanks for good stuff to read in December!
Couple of questions: from a true fantasy focus, the left/right/center distinction is pretty arbitrary. I would rather see discussions in tiers: elite/solid/average/avoid or something.
Also, for those of us in NL- or AL-only leagues (or a couple of both!) the tiers could be divided by league, so it's easy to see the top three or seven or ten OF in each league. It's really important from a draft or auction perspective to see where BP thinks someone falls into a group: for example, is Jason Bay closer to Adam Dunn or Johnny Damon?
Big fan of the afternoon -- after five years of readingBP over lunch every day, I have dropped off my BP visits by 80% since the morning newsletters kicked in.
Also echo the comments about HTML in the newsletter to allow direct clicking to read recent chat transcripts: one of my favorite features.
I notice no mention of PECOTA\'s 2008 projection of Daniel Murphy and how he surpassed the 90th percentile in every major category.