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roarke
47 comments | 63 total rating | 1.34 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/13096
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

I think I'd go with the 1987 Twins. They only won 85 games and their Pythagorean W/L was under .500. They had a .358 winning percentage on the road and the most they were ever over .500 was 13 games.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

I admit that I am biased, but I really hate when people call the 2006 Cardinals the worst team to win a World Series. They were a really good team that was beset by injuries all season and finally got healthy at the right time. Remember that it was virtually the same team that led all of baseball in wins in the previous two seasons. In the first 100 games they were 16 games over .500 (58-42). Their pitching wasn't great and their big three hitters (Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds) all struggled with injuries throughout the year.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Actually, such a person needs to read *more* BP so they can get a better understanding of how baseball actually works.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Given the Cardinals organizational makeup right now, Piscotty looks like a trade chip and I would guess that his value may never be higher than at this trade deadline. I like his bat and I think he'll be a solid player, but probably not for the Cardinals. That being said, I think I'd take Almora over him beause of the tools and potential (and because I'm a foolish optimist). It is certainly a closer call than you would have thought before the season, but I'd give the slight edge to Almora.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 3

Has anyone seen Starling in person lately? He's been on a tear and I've read that he's changed back to his high school mechanics, so I'm just curious if he's turned a corner in his development or if it's just a statistical blip.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

I'd almost given up on Jenkins as a prospect; I'll be very interested to see the first hand report on him.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

I agree and I think one of the primary factors here is player compensation. Most players are playing for their next contract and they are very aware that a season where their team deploys a strategy that will inhibit their ability to reach certain statistical standards (pitchers' wins, saves, etc.) will damage their overall value. Arbitration and free agency is still very reliant on those kinds of traditional measures and if a player has a season in his history that doesn't look right statistically, it can hurt his value. I think that player revolt/players association troubles would be a real issue for any team that wanted to test these theories at the big league level.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Not really, though. They had a six man rotation, but they weren't piggy-backing starters or anything like that.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 3

I like the idea of having a "piggyback" rotation of six "starters". Your #1 pitches 4 innings of game 1, then your #4 pitches the next 3 innings of game 1 and then you turn it over to your standard bullpen. The pattern is repeated with the remaining starters until game 4, then #4 starts and pitches 4 innings and your #1 pitches the next 3 innings. That way, each of the pitchers gets about 7 innings of work every six days, which should conserve them over a full season and no pitcher should have to go through a lineup more than twice. This would, of course, screw up traditional statistics and the pitchers would likely rebel, but I'd be interested in seeing if it would work.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

I believe you have Marco Gonzalez' team mixed up (Palm Beach isn't the Cardinals AAA affiliate).

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 2

Well, there is definitely reason to be excited, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'd like to see him against advanced pitching before we start talking about him and HR records.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

I'm not sure if Grichuk profiles as a CF long term, though. So if Piscotty and/or Taveras are called up, Grichuk could move to a corner to make way for Ramsey. Of course, your primary point is a good one - "among the first names called by the Cardinals if they have an injury" is probably overstating it since all three AAA guys are ahead of him in line.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 3

It always seems a bit rude when commenters mention typos and I hesitated to point it out. Is there a less-public way of making these things known to you?

Feb 20, 2014 5:42 AM on Best Speed/Makeup
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Terrance Gore of the Kansas City Twins?

Feb 20, 2014 5:36 AM on Best Speed/Makeup
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 5

"Smutty changeup" is a fantastic description. Thanks for the excellent work, as always.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Let's just say that Halladay worked out and rehabbed and got in shape by July. Then he signs a one day contract and pitches a game for the Phillies just to show he's healthy and is lights out. Imagine the bidding war that would ensue for each of Halladay's remaining starts (if he chose to go one day contracts at a time) if the Red Sox and Yankees were fighting it out for the last playoff spot in the AL.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

The "think smarter, not harder" line is absolutely sublime.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 3

5 SS in the top 7 - while they all might not stick there, the league could use an infusion of young talent at that position.

Jan 27, 2014 6:48 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

I'm not disagreeing about who won the trade, but I've heard comments like this several times - that the Royals could have just gone out and spent money in free agency instead - but who would they have gotten? Greinke probably wasn't going back to KC and they would have had to outbid the Angels. They could have gotten Kyle Lohse, I suppose, if that floats your boat. It's easy to say that the Royals should have just kept Myers and spent $30M on a free agent pitcher, but there has to be a quality pitcher that actually wants to go to KC for that to work out and that's not quite as easy as it sounds. Myers has been great and would have filled a position of great weakness for the Royals, but Shields has been great for the Royals, too, and starting pitching is always a need for all teams. In the long run I suspect they will regret trading Myers, but the free agency alternative for pitching isn't quite as easy as people try to argue.

Aug 14, 2013 5:38 AM on Wil the Thril
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Unless, of course, the Cardinals decide to trade Freese instead and move Carpenter back to third base. I'm really not sure which scenario I would prefer and Freese hasn't made it easy with his slightly disappointing season.

Jul 26, 2013 7:11 AM on July 26, 2013
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting that the Cardinals system was seen as the top system in baseball entering the season, but they haven't really been talked about much during the season. I suspect that's because they've graduated so many of their players to the majors (at least for short stints) and their #1 guy, OT, has been injured for much of the year. I'm actually a little surprised that they weren't on the Five Farm Teams on the Fall list since their #2, #3, #4, #5 and #8 prospects have all played in the majors and at least three of those five won't be eligible for the list next year.

Jun 20, 2013 12:05 PM on First Half Recap
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks for the information. Is there any way that we could get a birthdate for each player?

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Yep. I was watching the Cardinals game on my computer using MLB.tv and when I heard that Darvish was perfect through 8, I put the Rangers game in the PiP screen until the bottom of the inning, then I switched the pictures to watch and listen to Darvish try and close it out in the bottom of the ninth. MLB has had its missteps as a league over the years, but they have done a better job embracing technology than any of the other major sports leagues.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 8

I think part of the problem is that he's trying too hard to be weird and it seems transparent. There's a difference between guys whose goal is to win games and they happen to be quirky and guys whose goal is to be quirky. I'm not saying that Wilson isn't trying to win, but his first goal seems to be being quirky.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 2

Late to the game on this, but I was wondering about the comments on Zack Wheeler. It seems that "setting up batters" is attributed sometimes to the pitcher and sometimes to the catcher. To an extent (and certainly more often, I would assume, in the minors) neither the pitcher or catcher are calling the pitches - that comes from the manager in the dugout. So how much can we really evaluate this as a skill in a minor league pitcher and/or catcher? And how do you determine who should get the credit?

Oct 16, 2012 9:19 AM on October 15
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Have you heard anything about the rumor that there is "something" not injury related that is scaring KC off of Zimmer?

Jun 01, 2012 1:19 PM on Mocking, Teasing
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

This was great, thank you! I recognize that there have to be limitations (and that everyone wants to hear "just one more" for their favorite team), but I would have loved to read a review of a sixth player for the Cardinals organization for Trevor Rosenthal.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Any idea when the PECOTA spreadsheet will be available for download?

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

I can't seem to change my selections now. Every time that I go in to make a change, after I hit 'continue' after the first step it takes me to my full ballot.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Why would Oakland want to trade for a first baseman when they have Chris Carter (who they can't seem to find any playing time for)?

Sep 20, 2011 6:11 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: -1

The Meche signing wasn't that bad. He was pretty good for the first two years and they ended up paying him about $4.45M per win (in the WARP sense) over the life of his contract, which is decent.

Sep 16, 2011 10:44 AM on Kansas City Royals
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

What is your gut instinct on the Cardinals 3B situation going forward? Given the choice between Carpenter and Cox, who do you think gives them the most value?

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Well, Rolen did sort of famously complain his way out of Philadelphia earlier in his career and Drew gets similar complaints from Boston fans, but LaRussa seems to be much more willing to air his greivances in public (which damages his teams trading leverage). My question is whether Rzepczynski has a legitimate chance at being a starting pitcher down the road. If not, all the Cardinals will have after this season is a middle reliever and Type B compensation for Jackson to show for Rasmus.

Aug 02, 2011 7:27 AM on Colby Goes to Canada
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Is it strange that there is a part of me that sort of misses listening to the old conference call style of the draft?

Jun 06, 2011 9:54 AM on Today's Draft Agenda
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Well, yeah, but that's not really my point. The point is that the Royals could be costing themselves multiple millions of dollars down the road by bringing Hosmer up now when they have another alternative in AAA if they really wanted to replace Kila in the lineup. Give Robinson two weeks or give him a month to see if he has anything to offer. Whatever - the point is really Hosmer's major league service time.

May 06, 2011 9:24 AM on Get it While it's Hot
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Maybe you're right - I'm excited to see what Hosmer can do in the big leagues - but if a change was necessary because Kila has sucked, why not give Clint Robinson a two week shot? Like Kila, he's a little old to be a top prospect, but he tore the cover off the ball in AA last year and is off to a pretty solid start in AAA himself. Sure, it's quite possible that the Royals will no longer be over .500 in two weeks, but I doubt that fans in KC will be any less excited to see Hosmer than they are now.

May 06, 2011 6:51 AM on Get it While it's Hot
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 2

Any thought that Clint Robinson might get the call to KC instead of Hosmer should Kila continue to flounder, if only to give the older guy his one shot and keep Hosmer from starting his MLB clock?

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 12

The thing is, I don't think people are asking you if you *know* when Moustakas (for example) is going to get called up - they want to know your opinion. It's like asking a baseball analyst whether Albert Pujols will win the triple crown - obviously they don't know what AP will do, but they are paid to watch and study the game and their opinion is (theoretically) more informed than the average baseball fan. I would guess the same is true for the people asking you these questions about call-ups - you are an analyst that is an expert regarding baseball prospects, people are interested in what you think about a timetable for a guy based on what you see and what you hear about them. I think it's entirely reasonable, regardless of how bemused that concept may make some front-office guy.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

An overall team line of .279/.346/.424? That would be fantastic for the Royals (they put up .259/.318/.405 last year). That kind of improvement just doesn't seem possible with the changes they've made this offseason. PECOTA seems to be predicting that this is the year that Alex Gordon finally becomes a productive player, which helps explain a lot (but might be a touch optimistic given his apparent disinterest in making himself better).

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 5

I don't get why the Phillies aren't keeping Lee. Sure, maybe he won't sign an extention and they lose him after the season, but one season of Lee and Halladay in the rotation plus the two compensatory draft picks seem to be better than just Halladay in the rotation and the prospects Philly is getting from Seattle. Lee's $9M for this season can't be the deciding factor, can it? The Phillies are already one of the favorites to play for the World Series, but with Lee and Halladay in the rotation, they'd have to be *the* favorite - overwhelmingly so. That, to me, is worth the difference between the B level prospects they are getting from Seattle and the compensatory picks.

Dec 15, 2009 10:12 AM on Floridians Breathe Easy
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Chien Ming Wang seems like a perfect candidate for a Dave Duncan revival project in St. Louis.

 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

You mean the 2006 team that was coming off of having the best record in baseball for two consecutive years and was on their way to doing the same until injuries dragged them down in the second half and then got healthy and began playing at their true level at the right time? If the system gave the Cardinals a "gift" in 2006, then do they get credit for having the best regular season teams in 2004 and 2005? That being said, the 1985 team blew the series on it's own - Dekinger's bad call was a minor piece of that disasterous inning.

Sep 24, 2009 7:44 AM on Kansas City Royals
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

Awesome - thanks!

Dec 20, 2008 5:35 AM on Feedback
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

Yankees, 7/161, 12/4

Nov 10, 2008 1:42 PM on July 2-8
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 1

But your argument, then, is that Howard should win the MVP because his teammates are better than Pujols\' teammates. That\'s absurd. Team awards already exist, the MVP is an individual award, so it should be based on what the individual has done.

Oct 27, 2008 10:50 AM on June 19-23, 2001
 
roarke
(13096)
Comment rating: 0

ScottyB: The Dodgers offense is obviously better with Manny in the lineup than without him, but his presence doesn\'t make Ethier, Kemp, etc. better players. Adding a bat like Manny\'s to *any* offense will make it a better offense - that doesn\'t have anything to do with having a \"straw that stirs the drink\" it just means that adding talent adds production. The rest of the guys in the lineup are the same players as they were before he arrived (which is generally the point of Eric\'s study, I believe).

Oct 03, 2008 7:13 AM on May 21-27