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Jason Wojciechowski
440 comments | 130 total rating | 0.30 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/1272
Jason Wojciechowski
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What can I say except that I'm sad you haven't had the transcendent chili that I have. I feel bad for you.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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The <a href="https://twitter.com/jlwoj/status/826269388101738497">Angels' new third baseman</a>.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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This is accurate and correct.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It's actually a fantastic example because it literally treats different people's votes differently, yet, as Patrick says, it's baked in and many take it for granted or argue in favor of it. Whether there are good reasons for it to exist is irrelevant to the question of whether it is fair in the sense that Patrick uses the word here, to mean a Golden Rule type of fairness, a strict equality where two broken toys is fairer than one broken toy.

Jan 03, 2017 8:44 AM on Unfair Ball
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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To the latter, at least: minor-leaguers (understood to mean those players not on the 40-man roster) are not in the MLBPA or any other union. (For this reason, and with no shade at Trevor, I think the word "members" in the penultimate sentence of the third paragraph is ill-chosen -- minor-leaguers aren't members, either of the union as an association or of the bargaining unit for which the MLBPA has exclusive-representation rights.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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It's not a question of understanding - it's a question of disagreement with the proposition that free-market enterprise is good.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Davis isn't a first name, come on.

Jun 09, 2016 8:09 AM on The 2016 Name Game
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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*coughs* the Dodgers and Angels don't play in the same city

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It's a pretty nice win total even so, though.

Apr 28, 2016 3:20 PM on My Predicted Standings
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm sad that I made a joke :(

Mar 14, 2016 11:04 AM on Should Have Taken Trout
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Everyone complaining about "should of" probably should of read a book.

Mar 14, 2016 9:39 AM on Should Have Taken Trout
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I've been pondering whether, in the short term, the conclusion about catcher conversions is correct, or whether we'll actually see <i>more</i> catcher conversions until modern receiving techniques (and the coaching of them) filter down through the ranks. That is, what I wonder is whether amateur catchers are presently getting the right kind of receiving instruction such that their experience is <i>good</i> experience, or whether some teams might have more luck taking someone with the right tools but zero catching background and building a catcher with a blank slate, no bad habits to undo, etc. etc. etc. The opposite side of my musing is that maybe receiving hasn't actually changed, we're just putting a number on it - the techniques of framing haven't visibly changed in the 25 years I've been watching baseball, though of course I watch with a pretty unpracticed eye - so perhaps even a catcher coming out of any old high school will have had the same basic (more or less correct) instruction in catching as anyone else, and really will be ahead of his third baseman teammate.

Jan 11, 2016 8:29 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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On the off chance that he is not in fact tasked with beaning senators with line drives, this has been fixed - thanks!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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On the day the Supreme Court is hearing Friedrichs v. CTA, it is worth noting that the MLBPA is operating in the most antiunion environment we've seen in, I don't know, a century? And not out of the blue, but as part of a 40-year concerted campaign to make it this way. In such a highly public industry, and in a world in which some significant portion of its membership is likely quite antiunion, it's worth noting these things before casting aspersions at Michael Weiner and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1308">Tony Clark</a></span>. However brilliant Marvin Miller may have been, 1966 was an entirely different place than 2016.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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You are correct, and this is corrected.

Jan 05, 2016 9:55 AM on Marlins For the Ed-Win
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Oops, fixed. Thanks.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Fixed, thanks.

Dec 04, 2015 4:40 PM on Getting Into De Fratus
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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http://king-snail.tumblr.com/post/113914061624/slams-fists-on-table-let-him-shop-let-him-shop

Sep 30, 2015 10:24 AM on Let Him Pitch!
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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"When the opposition puts the ball in play against Chapman (often a feat within itself), it tends to catch air."

Sep 21, 2015 10:30 PM on The Aroldis Profession
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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That hat is definitely green.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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! I want a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18641">Stan Bahnsen</a></span> story now.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A slice of pie for Tynan. hpeabody, your punishment is watching Tynan eat it.

Aug 21, 2015 8:34 AM on Utley Confidential
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Doesn't really fit the point of the article, which is players who we didn't think would be relevant enough to deserve a writeup but who turned out to perform well.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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You're my new best friend.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Now you know how I feel.

Aug 05, 2015 10:55 PM on Summer Showcase Scouting
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Fixed and thank you.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Why did you read it?

Jul 28, 2015 8:03 AM on Justin Upton
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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And it was, specifically, two different Cashmen. I wrote this comment only because I wanted to say "Cashmen."

Jul 28, 2015 8:03 AM on Justin Upton
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Fixed. Thank you, fawcettb.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18911">Billy Beane</a></span> would be extremely surprised to hear that the Jays have <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102106">Franklin Barreto</a></span>.

Jul 15, 2015 10:03 PM on Johnny Cueto
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I'm pretty sure Russell is from Ohio.

Jul 15, 2015 2:50 PM on Johnny Cueto
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Or amazing ones.

Jul 15, 2015 9:31 AM on Johnny Cueto
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm, sadly, way older than that.

Jul 08, 2015 1:23 PM on July 8, 2017
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"(Note: The actual Roe pitch was captured in Toronto, but Camden Yards makes for an easier example, so we'll use it here.)"

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It is in progress.

Jun 29, 2015 7:32 AM on The Sandberg Goeth
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Ask and ye shall etc.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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You are correct, thank you. Fixed.

Jun 08, 2015 9:46 AM on June 8, 2015
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thank you -- fixed.

Jun 02, 2015 10:12 AM on June 2, 2015
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Come on, everyone's definitely heard of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67154">Asher Wojciechowski</a></span>.

Apr 07, 2015 7:22 AM on Who Are These Guys?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Good point, though I will note the timing of his move to left field, about which he's grumbled. If he's traded somewhere where he can play center, he might be convinced to waive.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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"sometimes they'll get too cute for their own good"

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The journey from Highland Park to Los Angeles is zero!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I'm glad you bring up the ethical (and I might even say moral) considerations, particularly as they relate to bargaining power. One question, though, as to one tiny aspect: would eliminating (or, more realistically, discounting) players due to medical imaging really be an attack on the meritocracy of baseball? Might it be more properly viewed as a path toward a full accounting of present + likely future merit, where teams gain more and more ability gauge the future? And in particular, for every player who's discounted, someone else is bumped up to take his place -- sucks for Brady Aiken and the 2050 version of Brady Aiken, but if someone else is paid the money and given the opportunity, does this actually raise any ethical problems?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I co-edited the Annual and it's definitely "should of."

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Stupid rules. I hate rules. (Thanks.) For other readers, there's an explanation of the rule I screwed up here -- scroll to or search for "fourth minor league option".

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The boss doesn't get to decide which employees are in a union, so, at least as to your first paragraph, that's outside the power of the Commissioner, even acknowledging that this whole thing is just an exercise in "how can we make the game better."

Feb 21, 2015 9:56 PM on Commissioner for a Day
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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1. I thought the same thing. 2. I'm not convinced Coco Crisp isn't still an actual second baseman who's been masquerading as an outfielder for a decade.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I've carried two cell phones for the last five years! I'm going to send my resume to Philadelphia and see how this works out.

Sep 25, 2014 11:36 PM on Buxton or Beane?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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++

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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We'll email him this comment as his compensation.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oops, four-run fifth. Thanks.

Aug 25, 2014 1:48 PM on August 25, 2014
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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We're proceeding through the proper channels. The last thing we need is a lawsuit. We will inform everyone of the outcome of our review once the final decision is made and all appeals are heard.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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With apologies for the late posting, which is on me, I hope the additional information from the fantasy side now addresses this question. (Though timber also said it.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Whatever your personal beliefs on the matter, that is not what a union is "designed solely" to do.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The player chooses, I think -- Yoenis Cespedes is bringing back Mike Gallego this year. (Which also shows that they don't always want the platoon advantage.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Fixed -- thanks!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I was with you right up until "Waygon."

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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You didn't have to say "wet." Just "dream" would have sufficed. smh

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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He not only dropped the bat in July 2013, he almost lawn darted it.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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It's neutral given that the team would have still avoided Super Two if he hadn't signed the contract, and I think it's that monkeying with the clock / leverage that I think people are reacting to. If they'd called him up when he was ready, and you exchange an arb year for a minimum salary year, the picture changes a bit. This doesn't go to whether Singleton should or should not have signed the deal, and it's also just one step further from the normal, non-extension-related, service time shenanigans, I.e. I don't know if the Astros are actually acting any worse than any team, and in any event I don't have a good solution to the Super Two problem any more than anyone else does, but it seems worth noting anyway.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I have a wild guess about what Asher said instead of "[arm]".

Jun 05, 2014 9:38 AM on Day Nine: Frisco
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Okay, but do you have stills of a fish crossing the street?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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For what it's worth, the 65% takes the count into account, so it's not really an "on top of" situation. (Apologies if I'm just reading that phrase too literally.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Or May.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I hereby submit my official request that a Resident BP Genius take a fresh look at manager ejections without the obvious methodological flaw Sam pointed out. Attested and sworn to this 19th day of April in the year 2014, in Los Angeles, California. /s/ ---------- Jason Wojciechowski

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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"During the weeks when he can’t even straighten his arm" he won't be able to hold the pen to sign the deal! Your plan is foiled.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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/blinks with doe eyes why whatever could you be talking about (Alternatively: thanks, fixed.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A bunt to the right side or blowing it twice and winding up with two strikes are also good ways to fail.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The main reason is that he's probably not a good enough bunter to be successful that often. Then again, he wouldn't have to be. Even 40% would add value, especially when added to the deterrent effect. Which is to say that I'm completely on board with the idea that shifted hitters league-wide aren't bunting enough.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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This represents exactly the same folly as only considering the Buffy movie canon, which is something no one would ever say.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I literally just got this joke right now.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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For what it's worth, the A's spent a supplemental round pick on Huston Street a decade ago. The A's haven't ever bought a Papelbon on the market, but they have, in their way, been paying blood and treasure for guys they thought they could trust to close for a long time now. This has little to do with the point of the article; it's just to say that wherever the A's are in their valuation of relievers, and whether where they are is ten years ahead of the times or ten years behind, I think they've been there for quite a good while.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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To be clear and to make sure Sam doesn't hate me: I didn't mean to cast any aspersions regarding his Fun Fact. It just made me curious and I hoped to spur someone who knows how to Do Databases to find stretches like Gibson or Hershiser's.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The first section makes me wonder about starting pitchers who have had hidden 70-inning stretches of <1 RA/9.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is a problem with the JDA and CBA, both of which are posted in some weird PDF format that makes copying and pasting a real bear regardless of where you're pasting to.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My best guess on the 7A/7G question is that it represents a safe middle ground for both sides. The MLBPA would risk a holding by Horowitz that under 7A, three drugs gets you a lifetime ban in non-analytic cases. (As noted by other commenters, basically anyone using drugs is using many drugs, so the risk would essentially be lifetime bans for all non-analytic cases.) MLB would risk a decision that all this conduct by ARod gets lumped into one violation, so it's a 50-game suspension. 7G gives both parties room for argument.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That Sayre hasn't chimed in on this point makes me think that oloughla has a point.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I've always been a fan of the part where they catch ARod sneaking glances back at the catcher.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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There's a similar policy of judicial non disruption of agreed-to processes, but it stems from a separate statutory scheme, the Federal Arbitration Act.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think you're making a case for malice on the part of MLB, but I'm not seeing how that applies to Horowitz.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Isn't it "ad infinitum"? Eggcorns from 1914, I guess?

Jan 11, 2014 12:04 PM on YCPB and You Never Could
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Not to put too fine a point on it, but Ben and I explained all of this (and I acknowledged one major drawback of my strategy and explained why I thought it was presently valid anyway) above in those threads that you plussed (rightly, IMO -- I'm not the biggest fan of how minuses are sometimes used here).

Jan 10, 2014 7:55 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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"Tomfoolery" -- did Maddux get in in BP's vote or not?

Jan 09, 2014 9:24 PM on The 2014 Results
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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If there are voting instructions that say to vote for your top 10 choices, I'm unaware of them.

Jan 08, 2014 10:00 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Thank goodness it was me, then. Feel free to ignore all future articles with my byline.

Jan 08, 2014 9:06 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Yep. And I do realize there are those who think this approach is invalid in some way -- not in the spirit of the vote, say -- and all I can say to that is that I disagree. The tougher issue is that if nobody voted for Maddux because everyone else was going to, where would we be? For now, though, it appears empirically to be a safe tactic, whether in the BBWAA or BP. (It's also only an issue on a clogged ballot -- if BP voters tracked the real vote, there wouldn't be any such thing.)

Jan 08, 2014 9:04 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Houston is the exception proving the rule: Third Coast!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I say it "squirrel"?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Brian Wilson plays baseball!

Dec 16, 2013 9:46 AM on Rip Van Wilson
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Bruce Dern, who at the time was doing a lot of TV work, including a lot of Westerns, has a story in his recent Fresh Air interview that ends "Mom! They Shoot Horses, Don't They is NOT a western!"

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Rays-December romance" smh Ben. smh.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The thing with the Diamondbacks is interesting because while it started with the Upton and Bauer transactions, the swimming pool thing and Kevin Towers saying he wanted his team to throw the baseball at people and the recent Kirk Gibson trashing of who the Dodgers chose to send to Australia all feed the narrative. Hell, really, it goes back before the trades to Ken Kendrick running his players into the ground by name on the radio. I suspect many of the jokes, and certainly my (lengthy -- go big or go home, I say) series of jokes on Twitter, in this vein stem from extreme distaste for basically everything coming out of that organization in the last two to three years and from the fact that every time things seem to die down for a while, they pop back up again by saying or doing something stupid.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Graeme Lloyd having been the last major-league Lloyd (2003), I also appreciate taking this chance when it's presented.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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ME TOO

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Ray Fosse's homerism is different from, say, Hawk Harrelson's only in kind, not in degree. Any reasonably close call should always go Oakland's way. I love him and would knock back a few beers with him any day, but yeah an objective description of the events is not what I'd turn to him for.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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I don't know if the A's lineup variability is actually that variable -- the two areas of flux that I see is are that Callaspo could start even though the platoon option vs. righties is Sogard (over the last month, with lefty starters, Callaspo started 12 of 12 times; with righty starters, Sogard started 11 out of 15 times) and the Seth Smith / Daric Barton question (Smith at DH/LF with Moss at first or Barton at first with Moss at DH/LF?), which is maybe partially informed by Cespedes's shoulder. Maybe Bob Melvin will surprise me and throw Derek Norris a start or do the Lowrie-at-DH thing (with Sogard at short), but my sense has been that these configurations have been more about giving players days/half-days off. Not that Oakland would be willing to admit that they have a Cray XK7 working on the optimal offense/defense configuration given each new day's park, opposing pitcher, weather, and breakfast choices. Maybe it's all cover.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Good call, Dale.

Sep 30, 2013 10:46 PM on AL Game 163 Preview
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Bless you.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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To be fair to Whicker, do any of us actually know who Sam Miller is?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Dan Otero, duh

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
Comment rating: 5

Oh right, I forgot, we have to prioritize and rank our chastisements. A comment to an article about interns should not mention the complete absurdity of not paying people for work unless we've already fixed the minor-league player problem. I also think you've misstated the law to imply that all that's required to bring an internship outside the realm of the FLSA is some actual learning. The Department of Labor's guidance on the issue requires among other criteria: "The employer that provides the training derives no immediate advantage from the activities of the intern; and on occasion its operations may actually be impeded." That's certainly not what Mr. Kapler described here.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
Comment rating: 10

"If interns get paid" Just so long as we recognize how horrifyingly shameful it is to say these four words about a business with annual revenues measured in the billions. Similarly this from earlier in the year.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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They're also better at being rude to me.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I would have given 11 a bonus for gesturing toward the pitcher on the first pitch. Obviously double-engaged.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yeah, Gomez's 2.7 WARP has him just off the edge of this list. I considered using VORP rather than WARP to avoid these kinds of issues, but in the end decided that I'd rather have some notion of defense from FRAA than none. I'm not sure what my "what's the story" on Gomez would have been. He's got a different trajectory than any of the 10 guys listed. Arguably he's got vague similarities to Chris Davis in that both were supposed to be better than they were and they're finally getting there, but I don't recall Davis having anywhere near the prospect love that Gomez had. Which I guess is part of the beauty of it -- out-of-nowhere seasons happen for all sorts of reasons and from all sorts of backgrounds. Perhaps a useful thing to remember when people talk about their "breakout candidates" and such every preseason.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Parenthetical in the first paragraph.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh thank gracious I thought I was the only one who still did that even though I'm not eight anymore.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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But that doesn't defeat MLB's "exemption," does it?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thank YOU. And LynchMob too, while I'm here.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I chose 70 because the new era of the Commerce Clause essentially kicked off about 70 years ago. It's really only ever since then that there's been an "exemption" in the law that was both difficult to attack (Supreme Court precedent!) but also worthy of attack (it's stupid precedent!). No other sports, as I understand it, have an antitrust exemption, at least not to the degree that MLB has. NFL has a specific exemption allowing them to do national TV deals. There may be other small carve-outs I don't know about. I think the ultimate victory for San Jose is an injunction requiring baseball not to enforce its rules regarding franchise relocation. Maybe at that point the A's do move and maybe not, but if they don't, it wouldn't be because they didn't have 3/4 support from the other owners and it wouldn't be because the Giants "own" Santa Clara.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Congress doesn't have the power to determine which things are in interstate commerce -- they have the power to regulate things that are in interstate commerce. They can make findings to that effect, essentially bolstering their own ability to regulate (IIRC the Violence Against Women Act is replete with these) in case of a challenge in court, but they are not the arbiter. What happened from the 1920s to the Curt Flood Act is that the Supreme Court accepted a new, broader definition of what interstate commerce is. In 1922, the Court held that Congress did not have the power to regulate. By the time of the Curt Flood Act, the basis of that holding was so long gone as to be laughable and thus Congress's passage of the Act is uncontroversial. What this has morphed into as to state antitrust law, though, is a sort of hardening of the 1922 decision into a quasi-fictional "federal policy not to regulate baseball under antitrust law" and given that federal policy and the Supremacy Clause, local (state) policy cannot apply.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
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Sam emailed me as soon as I sent mine in with one character: 2 I thought that was pretty rude, but yeah: awful.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Hope he signs on somewhere. He deserves it.

Jun 17, 2013 8:18 AM on The Profar-Free TA
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It's an interesting possibility, though there are non-negligible downsides to firing an arbitrator that might act as a brake on such action. It looks really really bad, for one thing. It pisses the other side off (and labor relations are, after all, about relations.) It pisses arbitrators off—the good ones aren't desperate for work, so you could conceivably see them turning down baseball work if they're just going to get (very publicly) fired after a decision.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"As a fellow labor lawyer (management side)" /gets the vapors No, kidding -- thanks! You're probably right about Braun. I wonder if there's a possibility of smaller classes, depending on how much evidence MLB has on each guy, like if some players have their real names in Bosch's notes and some have codenames only. Of course, there's going to be different evidence against each player, so maybe we're just not going to see a class proceeding at all. Or maybe there will be some agreement to incorporate elements from one proceeding into the others -- how many times does Horowitz need to see the union hammer on Bosch's credibility, e.g.? The jockeying over who goes first could, I agree, be very interesting.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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You're welcome, and thanks for reading. I think paying witnesses absolutely does raise credibility issues. It doesn't destroy their credibility entirely, of course, but the union will certainly raise it and the arbitrator will surely take it into account. Witnesses in criminal cases, the ones who roll on their friends to get lesser sentences, have that kind of thing brought up all the time. It's probably even something that's been studied, what kind of credibility hit such witnesses take. I'm not sure why MLB bothers with a panel. In theory, in a more classic workplace setting, the union or employer panelist could nudge the direction of the arbitration in particular ways, raise questions the rep didn't, etc. (Arbitrators are not shy about asking witnesses questions or for clarification when they don't understand. The process in that way is more about getting facts/the truth than standing on any formality.) In this setting, I'm not sure it makes sense -- the representatives aren't going to leave any stone unturned. I don't know of cases where the union or MLB panelist have switched sides, but I also haven't studied the history of the process at all. Everything I know is based on (1) the contracts; (2) a general familiarity with the idea of labor arbitration.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think there's an interesting case to be made for a grievance that the contract's confidentiality provisions were violated. (Because confidentiality is a provision of the labor contract, the case would have to start (and would almost assuredly finish) in the grievance machinery.) The practical problem I see is proof: journalists have gone to jail for resisting court orders to reveal sources, so I don't see Ryan Braun having much luck getting them to talk to him. Without evidence of where exactly these leaks are coming from, there's no case, because it's at least plausible that the story came out on the players' side, as an attempt to shame MLB into quit acting like fascists. (If I've gotten any facts wrong here, i.e. if any of the sources of the leaks are actually known, I apologize, and will be happy to be corrected.) I think there's very much something to be said for teams getting sick of the entire PED charade and deciding to quit it. The commish, at least theoretically, serves at the whim of the owners, so all it will take, again theoretically, is a majority of them saying "this is hurting our image, can we just get back to baseball?" I've been hopeful that reason and sense would win out for a long time now, though, and it still hasn't. In baseball or in life.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm glad you enjoyed it. Thank you. I've never heard of such mass discipline (and there's an interesting question of whether it makes sense to arbitrate the issues as a class), but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened. I'm not sure what mitigation you mean. Who should have mitigated what? I think the credibility of anybody associated with Biogenesis is going to come under heavy, heavy assault. Arbitrators are not fans of having to make credibility determinations -- or at least that's the lore I've been taught. Any time you can avoid having a he-said-she-said and the arbitrator has to pick one, it's good to do so. I think it's fair to say, though, that in typical discipline cases, the issue is not what acts were done but what effect those acts should have. Here, there will likely be a dispute over the very question of whether, e.g., Ryan Braun received drugs from Bosch. Generally, though, the worker is accused of doing a objectively poor job or excessive absence or violating some work rule right in front of a manager, and the question comes down to other issues, like the validity of that work rule or the notice and opportunity to improve that the worker received.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Had a similar thought, though without the discretion angle: HBP above the belt = second base; HBP below the belt = first base.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Maybe it's just the familiarity. I *loved* driving around Texas, even straight up the populated roads through Waco and toward Dallas, and in retrospect, it's probably because it was so new. I only went to Dallas once and I only went to Midland once and I only went to San Angelo once but I have vivid memories of those trips, including when, late late at night, out of nowhere loomed what was probably an oil refinery that was lit up like nothing I'd ever seen -- I've never played Bioshock but there was a way in which it reminded me of Bioshock that I can't shake. I don't have these memories for the multiple times I've been to Bakersfield and Lancaster and Rancho and San Berdoo. The Propulsion is on me if you do find your way back.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm sorry to have disappointed. I'd note paragraph 10 as to why you probably don't want to hear from me on the Astros farm.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"And you see Buck Showalter - his face is beet red." As opposed to all the other times.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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1. Yes. At the very least he's the exception. 2. You're sweet. Thanks.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That method of feeding is inhumane. Bo Porter foie gras isn't worth it.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Just FWIW, while Houston has a difficult CF, it's not a hard place to hit it out of in general. Still, three out of four.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Per the PITCHf/x Hitter Profile on his page, I'd add that pitchers have actually been *more* willing to come inside on Hosmer than they were in 2011.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Excellent! The best part is that he's still down 4.8 percent compared to last year, good enough for the top five.

May 28, 2013 2:32 PM on Walk Don't Walk
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Castillo has actually most often batted sixth this year, though of late he's bounced between sixth and seventh. Batting sixth on the Cubs is like batting eighth on a real team, though. BOOM ZING POW.

May 23, 2013 12:13 PM on Walk Don't Walk
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks, Nathan. Ol' Barty is inspirational.

May 17, 2013 4:04 PM on How Great Thou Bart
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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We can! (That's Jean Machi on the left for the uninitiated.)

Apr 22, 2013 8:50 AM on Ending Bradley
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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R.J. asked for it, although I don't remember if we can embed images here.

Apr 22, 2013 8:49 AM on Ending Bradley
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Dick Rockne? A column of his is quoted on p. 235!

Apr 12, 2013 7:56 AM on Seattle's Past
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Becoming Big League" actually makes extensive use of Bouton's book, but I didn't see a need/opportunity to work it into the review.

Apr 11, 2013 12:38 PM on Seattle's Past
 
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Jason Wojciechowski
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Eddie, did you find anything on this? It would make sense if the rule did exist because it would be the easiest way in the world to get around the rule that you can't sign a draft pick to a major-league contract.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't think one follows from the other. Hitting coaches are one-size-fits-all (or, increasingly, two-sizes-fit-all) solutions that could provide a benefit for the team as a whole while not actually benefiting a given individual player at all such that said given individual player might benefit from other things like a different manager or different teammates (or, hell, a different significant other or dog).

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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You're right. I lost some zeros somewhere. We'll get it fixed momentarily. Thanks.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is either the first BP article you've ever read or else I have to declare you objectively wrong, but either way, I appreciate the kind words.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's a great story. I do have to quibble with "Everybody calls him Onion," though, because, like, I don't.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's precisely the point. "They are pronounced the same" means you don't say the "s". By the lights of many, that means you should also not write the "s".

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Pittsburgh. Randolph correctly identified our mascot.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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1. Nobody ever out-cutes me. It's not a contest in my mind because I already won. 2. The trivial and obscure things and stuff that makes me laugh and things that make me draw connections to other stuff I know about are something I enjoy about baseball and that's all I wanted to go for here. I'm sorry this piece didn't hit the mark with you. Hopefully next time.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks! I'd noticed his far-apart major league stints, of course, but didn't catch the suspension angle.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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9. A Metropolitan! They are players of a city. 10. This is definitely not an open question.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The possessive for the Red and White Sox is dealt with in the SABR Style Guide, at least, and declares the usage to be apostrophe, no s. This fits with the verbal usage, for what it's worth (I'd argue lots). Nobody says "the Red Sox's ballpark is old" -- they say the "the Red Sox' ballpark is old." (Contra "Greg Maddux's fastball.")

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"walking just 40 in 70 innings" Sure, just 5.1 per nine innings.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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But would anyone know if I didn't?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Argh, my fault. Thanks!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I probably should have made a Los Angeles joke instead of a New York one given that I have not lived in NYC since 2008. I can't keep up!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's either an intended or unintended effect, depending on your viewpoint, of my method, most likely. (I don't have the spreadsheet in front of me.) I adjusted for the number of teams in the league because of how much more "impressive" it is to finish 30th in a stat than 16th. Without the adjustment, all the teams at the top and bottom of the list were from the few-teams era.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The great Nicholas Dawidoff book "The Catcher Was A Spy" is noted as a reference, but Berg himself makes just one appearance in the book: in a list of Jewish players who took the field on Rosh Hashanah in 1934.

Feb 28, 2013 9:39 AM on Enamorin' Hank
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks, Richard. I should have linked to the tweet in the first place.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yes, but when you compare reliever WARP to reliever rWAR or fWAR, you wind up seeing good closers and setup men often having substantially less value in our system. The innings are obviously the same across all three, but WARP not using a leverage factor is a distinction.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Some of that is league context, yes, but some is park (90 PPF for Catfish that year), some is FRA not giving credit for what is probably a fair amount of luck (.207 BABIP).

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It's not a penalty. It's a simple matter of not giving the player "credit" for leverage. Colin explained that position here.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I didn't look exhaustively, but I did actually delete a paragraph about that very issue as to McBride. You're right that he was the sole rep to his game in '61, but in '62, he was one of four Angels in the second game (two of them starters) and in '63, he was one of three, all of whom were starters. Which, if you'll notice, means that Ken McBride was the starting pitcher in an All-Star game. To be fair, the 1963 list of qualified starting pitchers in the AL is not a who's who -- Robin Roberts, Jim Bunning, and Whitey Ford are the only Hall of Famers I see who were active at the time, and Roberts was 36, well past his mid-'50s peak.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Cooper ranks a distant 38th-worst in WARP/ASG, just a tad worse than Shea Hillenbrand, amusingly.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oliver was pretty well appreciated in his time, making seven All-Star appearances. With nearly 47 career WARP, that's a WARP/ASG rate right near the mean and median for the sample.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Interesting! With nearly 40 WARP and two "All-Star Games" he wouldn't have cracked the top ten, but he'd be close.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yeah, looking back at just how stacked the league was in the outfield then was definitely one of the fun parts of doing this piece.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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As to 0, as Chomsky commented, I've seen it before. Who only made one game but should have made more would be interesting, I agree, but I wanted to keep the symmetry with the idea of "who are the guys who made multiple all-star teams but shouldn't have?" (Probably I should have written about those guys first and done this one second.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It's just a joke. Looking back, anybody losing what amounts to a popularity contest to Pete Rose might feel a little sad.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Which is exactly what happened in real life via a long-term deal. I kind of like that Sam and I put ourselves through this exercise anyway, by the way, because it shows how difficult it can be to, for instance, draw lines on comps when a smidge one way or the other pushes a player into the other side's argument.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Nice call. From our Baserunning report, sorted by Hit Advancement Runs (first to third, first to home, second to home), Miguel Cabrera rates 796th out of 835. And number 835? None other than Prince Fielder.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm a big fan of Arbitrator Fendelman writing a separate concurrence. Separate concurrences are the best.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Two thoughts and notes on this from a participant: * The point Ben raises about not trashing the player too much is well-taken. I took the tack of attempting to write a winning brief and damn the torpedoes. For a real team, of course, it's torpedoes all the way down. * This was hard. Maybe it would be a little easier if I had 12 pages and four months and a staff of research monkeys to deal with it rather than 800 words and a few stolen nights, but maybe not -- after all, I wanted to win and there are both personal and institutional reputational concerns associated with my doing a good, not-slapdash job, but teams and players need to win because they're playing for millions of dollars.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Without being able to speak to how arbitrators perceive such arguments, the last line of the relevant paragraph in the CBA refers to "and the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance." Given its placement in that paragraph and the fact that a player is just a tiny percentage of his team, I would hope, as a sabermetrically minded person, that such arguments are not accorded heavy weight, but, from my perspective, because of Headley's massive platform season and the fact that the Padres did not fare impressively either in attendance or record, I felt it was a strong enough piece to make it into my 800 words.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'll let you know as soon as I figure it out.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Revelation: the rule has actually been in place since the early days, pre-paywall, even. It's just more noticeable now because of the critical mass of Jasons.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That quote from Rodriguez's ex-teammate is amazing.

Jan 31, 2013 8:38 AM on The Unclean Game
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Bless you, Jeff Rose.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Beginning and ending with Del isn't a bad way to live, exactly.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A quick look at Texas shows its major-league talent being down a bit. There's Adam Dunn and Chris Young and Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson, but the starting shortstop is probably Cliff Pennington and the team's best pitcher is Brett Anderson. (John Danks? Shelby Miller?) It's not quite Sabathia-Strasburg-Hamels.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Bench at 65 vs. Tettleton at 52 is a difficult question. I wonder how their framing is these days.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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But Joey Votto! And Matt Stairs! And ... um. Joey Votto!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My favorite thing about Midland, hands down, is this detail from a mural downtown.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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An agenda! Is BP just a front for BALCO?

Jan 10, 2013 6:04 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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So the point boils down to: by asking for more money in 2012, Oliver implicitly promised not to ask for more money in 2013. But the only way that can be true is if the $3M part of the option is a promise on Oliver's part to play for that much. I think the better (and more realistic) view is that the contract is Oliver's promise not to play for anyone else and Toronto's promise that if he shows up to play, they'll pay him $3M.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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If both sides knew that retirement was a possibility, then what's the problem? Oliver says "please put more money at the front of my deal" and the Blue Jays voluntarily and with full knowledge of the possibility of his retirement accept that request. Not out of the goodness of their hearts but because it makes sense from a business perspective. The problem with arguing that Oliver "expects the Jays not to get any benefit out of" the option is that it construes the option as a promise to play. That's not what it is.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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/hugs

Jan 10, 2013 12:12 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Because I don't see my (hypothetical) ballot in a case like this year, where I think there are far more than 10 good candidates, as a means to express my idea of who the ten best players are but as a means to maximize the probability that all fourteen of the players who I think are deserving eventually get in. In this case, that means putting on players who I thought were at risk of falling under 5% rather than players who I judged (correctly, as it turns out) were likely to be near-unanimous choices.

Jan 10, 2013 10:12 AM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The evidence of "groupthink" appears to amount to "people agree." That's not what groupthink is.

Jan 09, 2013 5:23 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't want to leave you hanging, but there are also a whole lot of people (all of whom have the power to fire me) who'd be mad if I suddenly started speaking officially on behalf of BP, so I can't really do that. Sorry.

Jan 09, 2013 5:07 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Whether it's the writers or the writers+commenters, groupthink is, as you say, about the group agreeing for the sake of agreement and harmony. What evidence is there that saber-inspired fans want harmony? Aren't we the most argumentative people there are? I do think there's some overminusing of comments going on, but consider how few minuses it takes to hide something.

Jan 09, 2013 4:58 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't get the idea that because a bunch (a relatively small bunch, really!) of people agree, it's groupthink.

Jan 09, 2013 4:45 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I wish someone had told me that there was a rule against outthinking the room before I'd voted. Gosh how that would have helped. As it turns out, it didn't really matter -- Lofton gets his 5% (I chose to vote as if that matters) with or without me and I was not one of the people who kept Schilling one vote short.

Jan 09, 2013 10:01 AM on Casting Our Ballots
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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For someone like Furbush or Diekman or Richard, you wonder if the batter, on ball three, should swing to get the count to 3-1 and make the guy have to throw one more pitch, increasing the odds that he screws it up. (You probably should not get yourself to 3-2, though.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Still don't know why the A's haven't offered Ben Sheets plus a prospect for Stanton.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Geoff" is a distinguished gentleman's name, certainly, really the total opposite of "Jeff." Sadly, though, the Blum was off Geoff's rose before he ever got started, so I'm pretty sure I won't be voting for him.

Jan 03, 2013 10:04 AM on That Blank Expression
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think Maddux will likely get bonus points because he learned the error of his ways and shaved his lip-hairs off. Thanks for the kind words, Shaun.

Jan 03, 2013 9:54 AM on That Blank Expression
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Isn't that the issue Colin addressed recently?

Dec 29, 2012 1:10 AM on Slugger Off
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The only reason I'd know he's a DH, independent of our stat reports putting him in the DH pile when you limit by position, is because I hope, having seen him "play" third, that he's a DH. It's like wishcasting, except backward-looking.

Dec 28, 2012 11:55 AM on Slugger Off
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I completely missed Votto. I think, as far as the voters go, we could chalk up his failure to win as some evidence that they don't really know how to move from rate-land to runs-land. And/or that they don't really value doubles, because good gracious did Votto hit a lot of doubles.

Dec 28, 2012 11:47 AM on Slugger Off
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Sam also makes me queasy.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Nobody's quite finished last in all four, but there have been some truly awful teams. I held them in reserve for now. I may put them in the Unfiltered that I promised or I might just squeeze another article out about the worst teams. Not sure yet, but I will share somehow, sometime.

Dec 21, 2012 11:01 AM on The Four-Tool Teams
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Good idea. I'll put up an Unfiltered when I get a chance (i.e. late tonight or maybe even tomorrow) and leave a comment here linking to it.

Dec 20, 2012 10:42 AM on The Four-Tool Teams
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That assumes they all use the same replacement level, which isn't true, and further that the replacement level is adjusted empirically each year, which, e.g., at least per the chart posted above, fWAR does not do.

Dec 15, 2012 3:06 PM on Which WAR(P) Are You?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Bless you.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's a good point. I should have subtracted the pitcher's games from the team's record. Darn.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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First, this depends on your choice of metric. Garcia actually had identical FRA at home and on the road. Second, I think dramatic oversells it. The league put up a 3.90 xFIP at home and 4.14 on the road. An extra 0.15 runs (or "runs" I guess since we're in estimator territory) doesn't strike me as a big deal. In any case, a 3-8 road record vs. 5-4 at home does explain, in a sense, why his team's record was so bad when he pitched, but limiting him to the road still makes him an outlier -- a 3.40 xFIP is excellent! You'd expect a very good team like the Cardinals to go more than 3-8 when their starter gives them a 3.40 xFIP.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The route piece of that was referring specifically to his taking his GED after his sophomore year so that he could enter junior college and thus be drafted a year earlier than he'd otherwise have been eligible. As I understand it, that was unprecedented. As to overnarrativizing Harper and the hustle bit ... that's kind of the point. I don't know whether Harper actually changed his attitude and plays the way he does because of how he was perceived. There's a good chance that he didn't and that he was simply (to use an overly used word) misunderstood from the start. But try as I might, I can't just watch Harper play—I see him in the context of all the stories that came before.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Good question. Title 10, actually.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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No, don't. I'm not ready for this.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The free verse in this comment section is heart-warming.

Dec 03, 2012 9:35 PM on Boston, Napoli Married
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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BLESS YOUR HEART SAMMY MILLER

Dec 03, 2012 2:48 PM on Boston, Napoli Married
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That last question is on-point. I do hope we can get to the bottom of this.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Buy me a plane ticket and I'll be in Paris before you realize I'm gone.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's a very interesting proposition.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It was RNC-related.

Nov 28, 2012 3:34 PM on Adequate Scott!
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's a fair point. Umpires have been fooled by less.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't understand why Juan Castro even went for the tag. The ball is not in his glove.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Excellent point. I forgot to do it, but I actually meant to go into a little sidebar about the difficulty of evaluating who is responsible for a draft and where to place blame, especially as to the question of, say, first-round picks vs. 40th. This is particularly true in this era of complicated management structures like the Padres had for a time with Alderson on top of Towers (or like what we see now at both Chicago teams, the ever-present questions about who is in charge in Boston, etc. etc.). In theory, we should be able to say "whoever actually made the 32nd round pick, the buck stops with the GM and he sets the organizational priorities and philosophies," but these days, it's not even clear that that is true.

Nov 08, 2012 10:41 AM on The Two Towers
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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R.J. pointed out to me that this Q&A with Towers ran a few years ago right here on BP and includes some in-depth talk about the Padres' approach to the draft.

Nov 08, 2012 9:28 AM on The Two Towers
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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also do you see what i did there

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I've read it four times now, and I'm still staggered but the stunning amount of alliteration in the first paragraph. Pretty glad you went through with this, Ben.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I wish I could take credit, but that's all Sam.

Nov 02, 2012 12:01 AM on Forever Changes
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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/coughs

Nov 01, 2012 12:10 PM on Games of October 31
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I would ask that you not insult Sam by implying that comparisons between his work and that of others are at all valid.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I have nothing to say except that I've always wished I had a regional accent, particularly New England or Southern. Texas would do, too. (I can drawl a bit and I've incorporated a "y'all" into my speech, but I can't fully pull it off despite 18 months of immersive study.)

Oct 31, 2012 11:34 PM on Brian Science
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Holy cow did I biff that one. Posey should absolutely be second on that list. Sorry!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Jason Wojciechowski
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Please support your assertion.

Oct 18, 2012 10:33 PM on The Case for Cano
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The word "this" at the beginning of each paragraph is a link to the article.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yeah, even if you toss out FRAA, you've still got BRR, which gives almost a four-run lead to Cano. So then you're looking at "did Cano beat Cabrera by three or four runs on defense?" With nothing other than my eyes, I'd be comfortable guessing that he more than likely did. As unsatisfying as guessing is, I'm happier doing that than I am not including defense in my calculations of value.

Oct 17, 2012 1:25 AM on The Case for Cano
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Your number one is an interesting point and I hope it's correct. And also that I live to see it. One small thing: I'm fairly certain (I really ought to check but I'm on my phone and impatient) that incentives are tied to games finished, not saves, because performance incentives are not permitted. Now, it's effectively the same thing because nobody reaches a GF incentive unless they're a closer, and it's clearly there as a proxy, and a shift to "relief ace" will destroy that proxy just as surely as it would an actual saves incentive. But I thought I'd mention it.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks!

Oct 11, 2012 9:27 AM on The Raul Ibanez Special
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The percentages are not flipped. To the extent the article reads like "Detroit is going to mash the A's," it was unintentional. I think they're pretty evenly matched, though I am profoundly unimpressed by A.J. Griffin. My goal was not to justify the numbers that PECOTA came up with but to tell you some things that are relevant going into the game. PECOTA's odds are one of those things.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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In re: the second to last bullet, it still boggles my mind that Bob Melvin is carrying not one but two lefty-punishers on his bench in Jonny Gomes and Chris Carter, and he completely declined to use either of them. Pennington is a switch hitter, sure, but, he's nowhere near as good against any kind of pitcher as Gomes or Carter is against a lefty. Having declined to use his hitter there, he had another opportunity with the lefty Stephen Drew. Drew did pop a single, but I still don't understand why Melvin is carrying Carter and Gomes against a Tigers team that features no left-handed starters if he isn't going to use them against the left-handed relievers. Is he saving them for Seth Smith and Brandon moss?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I have to disagree with my friend and colleague's description of Kozma. To my eyes, he was drifting out to left, not dashing, and could have easily made the play without outfield help, but peeled off because the left fielder takes priority on those balls. I don't know what's right, but I wanted to mention it because I think there can be multiple interpretations of the video of the play. This is also not to say I think the call was right. As RJ says, the spirit of the rule is to prevent cheap double plays. It would have taken quite a lot to turn a 654 from that position.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"BoMel"? Good gracious.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I've already forgotten what standard I used for "good hitters". I think I was on FanGraphs, so maybe I went with like ~115 wRC+ and above? I probably should have been more systematic about it and actually defined a cutoff.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Well done. But I clicked Jake Wood, so now he's the only one in purple.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I approve of this.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Jason Wojciechowski
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I apologize for the two typos, which obviously ruined your reading experience.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Goddamn descriptivism.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Unless baseball is a business rather than a game and value should be measured in dollars.

Oct 02, 2012 10:36 AM on Putting the V in MVP
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This site is nothing without its readers!

Sep 27, 2012 3:16 PM on Free to Be We
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I've never detected a racial vibe in my, uh, many times watching this scene over the years. I do, however, detect the only pickle in baseball history to end with a headstand on third.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I agree 100% that knowing about the error/uncertainty around the figures is important, and it's something I should have mentioned in the article. Thank you for raising that. I don't actually have a substantive response at the moment, though. Maybe it's something I can follow up on later. Your second paragraph is what I was hoping people would take from this -- not so much "hey Detroit has lost 50 runs!" as "how much difference is it actually making on the field when a team is 1% above average at catching balls?" Whether a team actually IS 1% above average is the harder part.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm a little unclear on the Delmon Young part of this -- he's DH'd almost 100 times this year.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Addendum: thanks to Colin Wyers for his PADE assistance. Yes, that's a pun, but it's also true. He helped me with PADE.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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So much running. I'm tired.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Ok, except I found this "the prejudice that members of one race are intrinsically superior to members of other races" on WordNet. You'll note it includes "prejudice," something you specifically ruled out. Racism isn't nearly as simple as you'd like it to be.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Interesting -- thanks for bringing that Boswell piece to my attention. I missed it when I was doing my research for this one.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Jason Wojciechowski
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It worked!

Sep 05, 2012 5:44 PM on Shaving an Icon
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I have no idea if this embed is going to work, but:

Sep 05, 2012 5:44 PM on Shaving an Icon
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Gee, thanks! ... oh, you meant PARKS? Awkward.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Is it me or is there something about Maronde that makes him look closer to 5'11" than 6'3"?

Sep 04, 2012 4:24 PM on Nick Maronde's Debut
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is late, but I think important to note: "Midget" as proportional dwarf is something I think we all learned in elementary school, but it's not really true. And a "dwarf" isn't someone with a single medical condition, let alone one that particularly causes disproportionate body parts, but someone with one of hundreds of conditions that cause similar symptoms. The Wikipedia page is, amusingly enough given some of the content of Adam's article, a good place to start on the issue.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yeah, I meant later career Babe Ruth. Cecil could be third, I guess, but I think his son has passed him. Actually, now that I think about it, David Wells is probably still in second place ahead of Prince.

Aug 31, 2012 4:59 PM on Friday, August 31
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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D'oh! Wrong Ellis! Thanks for the correction. I don't really HAVE a swing anymore. These days, I'm working on getting topspin on my backhand.

Aug 30, 2012 9:53 AM on Thursday, August 30
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I did actually sleep on Mr. Perez as far as considering the possibility that future years could see top-notch catcher hitting, for which my bad. In fairness, he has fewer than 200 plate appearances this year, so the size of the dent he could make on the position's hitting stats is relatively small.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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No cookie is won! The famous philosopher is me!

Aug 29, 2012 5:58 PM on Wednesday, August 29
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's uncomfortably close to being correct.

Aug 29, 2012 11:31 AM on Wednesday, August 29
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A cookie, by the way, for anyone who can identify the notable philosopher quoted in the Miami comment.

Aug 29, 2012 10:01 AM on Wednesday, August 29
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Aw, Build Me Up Buttercup is basically the only good part of going to an Angels game!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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If only Justin Masterson had gone to Middlebury.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Here's a better factoid: Carlos Pena was traded on July 5. Scott Hatteberg had appeared in 73 of the team's 85 games to that point, starting 69 of them.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That's mean. He was making a joke re: the OP.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Jason Wojciechowski
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As long as you're OK letting these guys be nieve then it's fine, we can agree to disagree about whether every awesome out-of-nowhere performance should raise PED suspicions.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Here, here's a comment you can try to reply to for testing purposes.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Whoops, missed these comments earlier or I'd have clarified myself. Thanks for the help, David, and apologies, flyingdutchman and anyone else who was confused, for the stupid joke.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I mainly love the dudes calling the game. You don't hear Major League broadcasters screaming "THAT IS AWESOME" about an ejection very often.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Doug finished his career with the A's, so I remember his slowball. That's the only way I can keep them apart.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Be fair, $26 for a burger is boo-worthy.

Aug 02, 2012 2:57 PM on Thursday, August 2
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I will also wag my finger at all of you: it's Jane Austen.

Aug 02, 2012 9:55 AM on Nine Stories
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I dont have any idea what this means.

Aug 02, 2012 8:01 AM on Nine Stories
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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at least in re: Posada, an extra 1650 PAs goes a long way.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Rejected titles for this piece include: * Paying the Fifer * Probably Not the Next Mike Mussina * Dodgers Got Fife On It

Jul 19, 2012 10:05 AM on This is Your Fife
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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You mean "shortstop Brett Wallace," right? Every mention of Brett Wallace is required by baseball law to include the honorific "shortstop" now.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Follow-up! Somehow I forgot to include Prince Fielder trying to escape pickling:

Jul 13, 2012 12:38 PM on On the Humble Pickle
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My impression is that he's legitimately changed his approach, whether it's via coaching by PR people or his own management team, some veterans sitting him down and saying "we can't have that," or just flat-out personal maturation. When Kevin wrote up Harper here, for instance, he quoted a team executive talking about his makeup. It wasn't speculation, it wasn't just based on video of the highly publicized kissy-lips incident, whatever. It was actual talk inside the game that he'd need to act differently.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Coaches are just full of wisdom. I would get called for balks sometimes for coming to as much of a stop in the stretch as I saw pitchers do in the majors. "This isn't the majors!" says my coach. Thanks for that.

Jul 12, 2012 6:22 PM on On the Humble Pickle
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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355 career homers allowed: he's had plenty of practice at getting this right.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm fairly certain that humans make all the initial calls in tennis. Cyclops was used for a while, but I think it's gone now.

Jul 10, 2012 11:36 AM on Ending the Empire
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My journalistic standards are high—making sure that each quote was exactly right took a lot of phone calls and checking. One person, and I won't say who, swore up and down that Ozzie said "Lethem" instead of "Franzen." I'm pretty sure dude had an agenda.

Jul 04, 2012 11:07 AM on Cussin' in the Boys Room
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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To be fair to Paul O'Neill, he said "might." That maybe sounds like sarcasm because I'm always sarcastic, but it's not. Saying "might" is a lot more than most guys do.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm just keeping the run of little staff logos going is all. Ignore me.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think on the strength of 2008 to 2012, we have enough evidence to firmly declare that Alex Rios is an even-odd player. He's sitting on 3.1 WARP this year!

Jul 02, 2012 12:58 PM on AL Central
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks!

Jun 28, 2012 10:34 AM on AL West
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is true. It was just a reference to the fact that he's built like a tank. Although now that I think about it, tanks can get going pretty fast, too.

Jun 18, 2012 10:40 AM on Monday, June 18
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Haha, did they do that? I missed it.

Jun 18, 2012 10:38 AM on Monday, June 18
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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FREE LUCY SMOOT

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Please tell me this is a multi-layered joke around the fact that Hillman managed Nippon Ham in Japan. PLEASE. I mean, it's funny even if the joke is just "Trey is one letter off from Treyf and ham is treyf," but, still. Please?

Jun 13, 2012 5:40 PM on This Post is Not Kosher
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks! I'm excited for Matt to come back, though. He's the king. I'm just [omits Game of Thrones joke].

Jun 13, 2012 10:39 AM on Wednesday, June 13
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Awesome, thanks! You have increased my readership by 11%. In theory, Brad Peacock should be a better pitcher than Travis Blackley. For now, though, his numbers at AAA are fine, but hardly dominant enough to force a call-up. Some of that is in his hits allowed, which might be his pitching or it might be his defense or it might be bad luck. I haven't watched him, and I haven't talked to anyone who has, so maybe how he's actually pitching is a Kevin Goldstein question. Anyway, I doubt the A's are in any rush with him. Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey were supposed to be stopgaps at the very least, and possibly legit rotation options, but they've worked out about as well as the A's offense.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It does strike me as very unlikely that he's as bad as he was in May (plus a few days on either side of May), but I can't be objective about this.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks for the kind words. Behind the scenes details! The lines are my fault. BP style seems to be a *** to separate sections, which I used when I was writing, but which Markdown apparently translates into horizontal rule tags. I didn't realize this, and I also didn't realize how goofy it would look.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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What Sam said. The A's moved him to the outfield last year. The hope is that he can play center.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"That anyone continues to follow the A's is a remarkable triumph of the human spirit." Thanks!

Jun 04, 2012 11:13 AM on Monday, June 4
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't follow the NBA stathead debates as closely as I once did, but my understanding of one of the big problems / areas of study in NBA stats is in rebounding. Even just watching a game, it's easy to see that many rebounds are completely uncontested, and most are rebounds that any competent person of relevant size would grab. Separating the guys who get a lot of rebounds because their teammates let them have them from the guys who get a lot of rebounds because they're really good at fighting against the opponents for said rebounds is probably quite difficult, and at the same time quite important. I don't really have a point, except to note the parallel to fielding given the issues Colin raises here.

May 30, 2012 10:36 AM on Who Gives a Shift?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Yeah, since the whole idea of drafting a star is to have that star lead you to the promised land, maybe the situation isn't as absolutely "never ever give up a pick" as I think it might be. One of the things I was thinking of was the contrast to, say, the NBA. The Spurs, of course, come to mind -- they'd surely have been happy to give up their next-year pick after they drafted Tim Duncan because with Duncan on the team and David Robinson returning, that next-year pick was unlikely to be one they'd regret losing (compared to not having Duncan, anyway). Baseball has neither the immediate payoffs nor the devastating single-player losses that the NBA (or the NFL, to a lesser extent) has, though.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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As a CBA is just an agreement between parties like any other contract, I don't see any reason why said parties could not come together and make whatever amendment they wanted to make. Whether it's practical is a different question and one on which I'll defer to those who know the history of bargaining between the union and management better than I do (i.e. at all).

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I wonder whether any team will ever pay the "lose a pick" penalty. If the very top guys are the only ones worth losing a pick, and the team that drafts first in a given year is drafting first for a reason (they suck), then that team is frequently in line to draft very high again. E.g. if the Nats take a penalty to sign Strasburg, they don't get Harper. If they take the penalty to sign Harper, they don't get Rendon.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I thought Kevin Maas's chin was far more unworksafe and frightening.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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J.P. Howell is challenging Danny Duffy for Most Eminem Player.

May 21, 2012 9:56 AM on Baseball and the F Word
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm not sure how I feel about laughing as hard as I did at the comment about the A's futility.

May 17, 2012 4:13 PM on Thursday, May 17
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I was lucky enough to see Miller at an event at Smith College about ten years ago. Bob Costas was there promoting "Fair Ball" (and his voice is as insanely perfect in person as it is on the air) and the panel also included Andrew Zimbalist, Roger Noll (which makes quite a collection of sports economists), Clark Griffith (who my memory holds as an entirely reasonable person), and Randy Vataha. Miller, who would have been something like 84 at the time, was as combative as ever, challenging Costas's assertions that too much free-agent movement was hurting baseball, among others. (Miller pointed out that players changed teams just as often before free agency -- it was just entirely on the owners' terms.) I walked into that event, I'm a little sad to say, excited to see Costas and entirely sympathetic to his arguments. I walked out, though, a full-fledged convert to Marvin Miller's side.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I cannot imagine having watched without all my Twitter friends. It's an enhancement.

Apr 07, 2012 12:46 AM on The Pacers
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Aw.

Apr 04, 2012 1:40 PM on Last Expo Standing
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Four wins for Bartolo Colon will push him past Sandy Koufax into the top 200 all-time. I am shocked (SHOCKED) that this matter escaped your attention, R.J.

Apr 04, 2012 12:40 AM on 2012 Milestones Watch
 
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I may have overreached on the Nationals, but I always approach filling these things out the way I do an NCAA tournament bracket -- there will be upsets, and chalk is boring. I decided that I liked Washington as the team with crater potential that people think will be decent because of my doubts that Bryce Harper will be an impactful player this year, my worries about the team's health, this question being discussed of whether Strasburg will be on a short leash, and a weird and surely biased belief that the Mets are a halfway decent team that can nudge ahead of Washington.

Mar 27, 2012 1:23 PM on Staff Picks for 2012
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Ok, following up. Mariano Rivera faced the following lefties in the six games he pitched against Minnesota in 2003 and 2004. 10/2/03, Doug Mientkiewicz (top 8, 4-1 NYY, nobody on, nobody out) 10/2/03, Jacque Jones (top 8, 4-1 NYY, nobody on, two out) 10/2/03, Corey Koskie (top 9, 4-1 NYY, nobody on, one out) 10/2/03, A.J. Piezynski (top 9, 4-1 NYY, nobody on, two out) (Lew Ford was available on the bench for these at-bats) 10/4/03, Denny Hocking (S) pinch-hit for by Lew Ford (b8, 3-1 NYY, nobody on, one out) 10/4/03, Doug Mientkiewicz (b8, 3-1 NYY, nobody on, two out) 10/4/03, Jacque Jones (b9, 3-1 NYY, nobody on, one out) (Ford was used for Hocking and was thus unavailable for the other two) 10/5/04, Justin Morneau (t9, 2-0 MIN, nobody on, nobody out) 10/5/04, Corey Koskie (t9, 2-0 MIN, nobody on, one out) (Lew Ford started this game) 10/6/04, Justin Morneau (t8, 5-3 NYY, first and second, one out) 10/6/04, Corey Koskie (t8, 5-4 NYY, first and third, one out) 10/6/04, Jason Kubel (t8, 5-5, second and third, one out) 10/6/04, Cristian Guzman (S) (t8, 5-5, second and third, two out) (Lew Ford was on the bench) 10/8/04, Jose Offerman (S) as PH (b9, 8-2 NYY, loaded, nobody out) 10/8/04, Jacque Jones (b9, 8-4 NYY, third, two out) (Lew Ford started this game) 10/9/04, Corey Koskie (b10, 5-5, nobody on, nobody out) 10/9/04, Cristian Guzman (S) (b10, 5-5, nobody on, two out) 10/9/04, Jose Offerman (S) as PH (b11, 6-5 NYY, nobody on, nobody out) (Lew Ford started this game) The Kubel situation that R.J. describes above, then, has to be the one that Hunter was thinking of, and he forgot the outcome. The only other truly tight game that Rivera was involved in was 10/9/04, and the Twins never got a man on base with a lefty hitting. I suppose it's possible that Ford refused to hit for Kubel in that situation, but given how many details Hunter expressed such confidence in (per Jon Heyman, anyway), one would certainly be justified in doubting the veracity of the entire story.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Further facts: Rivera faced four pinch-hitters in that era against Minnesota: Jose Offerman (switch) twice, Lew Ford (!) once, and Matt LeCroy once. In the two games in which Offerman and LeCroy pinch-hit, Ford was a starter and thus unavailable to chicken out. (Maybe that's why Ford waved Gardenhire off! "I'm already in the lineup, coach, c'mon.") Maybe Gardenhire left in a lefty hitter when he didn't want to because a righty PH waved him off? That's harder to check. I plan to do it, but if anyone beats me to it, I'd hardly complain.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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It may warm your heart to know that between the time I wrote this and now, a depth-chart update has pushed the A's aggregate TAv to .257, a point below the Royals. "Top tier" is pretty generous, though. Even by simple runs scored, they've ranked 6th, 10th, and 13th in the AL the last three years, and they've done slightly worse by TAv.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My short answer to this type of question is that the A's run of competitiveness ran from 1999 to 2006, eight seasons, while the Rays just had their fourth, and that's counting a year in which they finished eleven games out of the playoffs, fifth in line for the wild card (the A's worst finish in their run was seven games out). Even giving the Rays extra credit for a five-team division with bigger spenders than the A's had to face, the sustained run fueled by a second wave of good players, like the A's had, hasn't happened yet. Certainly the Rays appear to be well on track to make that run, but I'd wait for it to happen before making comparisons.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The name has occurred to me, though I'm 100% certain it did not originate with me. It would certainly be unfortunate for Oakland if that's all Cespedes is.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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We used to play dodgeball with a baseball when I was a kid. My school's graduation rate was not high.

Feb 22, 2012 5:04 PM on Springtime Can Kill You
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is fantastic.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This isn't in direct response to the question and Maury's answer, I should note. I don't think Ed has access to future arbitrators, either. I just mean to point out an additional resource for those interested in arbitration.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Ed Edmonds at the Sports Law Blog follows the arbitration process quite closely every year and somehow finds out the names of the arbitrators. He's got this data far enough back that he has won-loss records for those arbitrators as well. His website with lots of arbitration info is supposed to be at this link, but something's happened to it.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I really enjoy the Bee's implication that ambulance-chasing is just a phase that all lawyers go through when they're young. A rite of passage, or perhaps a bar requirement. I guess I skipped right over it.

Jan 25, 2012 11:16 PM on Scott Boras' First Time
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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There probably are better solutions than blackouts to whatever problems the blackout rules are meant to solve, but for what it's worth: "Bud, name one other industry that limits a product to consumers?" -- pay TV and movies seem quite similar. Between release windows and having shows/movies available by some methods but not others (HBO on your iPad but not Netflix; your favorite movie on DVD but not on-demand), there are clear limits on the product to consumers willing to pay. (These limits might be quite rational, I should note. Netflix could surely offer some price to HBO that would be satisfactory, but they haven't yet, so HBO declines to undercut its cable subscriptions. Putting movies on demand at the same time that they're out in the theater, despite the massively superior audiovisual experience on the big screen, would probably cut theater-going by enormous percentages.) This analogy probably only works insofar as we're talking about people who can't watch local teams on MLB.tv but could watch them by subscribing to cable and thus getting an RSN. The Iowa Situation, for instance, doesn't really fit because there it's not just a limit, but an outright ban on viewing certain teams.

Jan 21, 2012 1:19 AM on Bud Selig's To-Do List
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Between the specialization of genius, the learned culture of baseball, the Crash Davis Media Effect, and what Derek mentioned about universalization of experience, players analyzing themselves or other players should probably be taken with as huge a grain of salt as anyone else analyzing them. I think we should respect the possibility that teams have profiles of players that affect their decision-making (e.g. the A's chose Brian Fuentes over Grant Balfour as their closer in Andrew Bailey's absence last year -- we should leave room for the possibility that they know something about Balfour, although of course Billy Beane's past approach to closers might raise some doubt on this front), and I suppose it's possible that someone of Don Cooper's level of experience can start to develop valuable intuitions that may not reduce to simple explanations of how/why, but in general, crowd-sourcing a deep psychological question to a bunch of people who got their B.A.s in the Sally League majoring in Hitting or Pitching strikes me as having similar value to asking 200 hometown fans who watch 95% of their games on TV and the other 5% from the right-field bleachers how good a third-baseman's defense is. Why would we expect them to know? The impossibility of dissing your own players in print prevents this, but I'd like to see "he chokes under the pressure of closing" applied non-post-hoc. I was going to write a thing before I remembered that Ben already said it: "[P]eople with the White Sox watched Thornton up close for his first four years in Chicago [jw: pitching in many many tight situations] and decided he had what it took to close."

Jan 16, 2012 3:12 PM on Can Anyone Close?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Also, thanks to Adam Sobsey for the totally gratuitous shout-out. Your check is in the mail. I think the line we have to be careful to draw is between "you didn't prove that" and "that's not true." This isn't the legal system, where we treat the former as the latter because ... well, because we have to. Because a conclusion *must* be reached. In these corners, the only pressure to reach a conclusion is, as Ben says here and as Matt Klaassen said to me on Twitter in the aftermath of the aforementioned ProGUESTus piece, that writing "I dunno" all the time is boring. Like really boring. But outside of that, we don't *need* a thumbs-up or down at the end of the day. It's perfectly o.k. for the question to remain unsettled. Which means: it's equivalently o.k. to tell someone writing about psychology that they're ascribing effects to causes that their data don't support as the sole or even necessarily dominant factors and to leave things at that. We don't know any better than the offending "analyst" about the psychology of the situation. What we do know (or at least what we are/should be willing to express in print in a way that said analyst is not) is that he doesn't and can't know, and we should be telling him that. (Ideally with as little of the rancor that KG identifies as a bit of an epidemic on Twitter these days as possible, but I'm kind of agnostic on the question. Some people shut down when they're being yelled at, some people don't respond until they're yelled at, and some people will never respond at all, meaning that the yelling is just for our own entertainment and catharsis. Which is fine. I ascribe no moral value, negative or positive, to any of this.) For what it's worth, I think a lot of the over-confidence on "our" side comes as a simple reaction to the same (or worse) on "the other" side. ("The other" side, to the extent that they spend as much time unhealthily obsessing over these meta-questions as I tend to do, might say the same back at us. Who knows. It's a dinosaur/egg question, I guess. (Though I will point out that one "side" has a lot more dinosaurs.)) As I type this, KG retweeted someone making this comment: "closer mentality definitely exists" -- why so [sure]?

Jan 16, 2012 9:55 AM on Can Anyone Close?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Colin looked at a similar question in his great piece on closers.

Jan 16, 2012 9:32 AM on Can Anyone Close?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Poor Kila Ka'aihue, buried already.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Bless all of you. And Randy, I have a couple of good friends who are matrimonial lawyers. Let me know if you need their numbers.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 4

Jason Army assemble!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 10

On behalf of Wojciechowskis everywhere, I say damn that Rzepczynski.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Tweaking that doesn't really change the overall results." If that's true, then that's fine. But is that true? For my part, I'm not quibbling. I just want to know what the justification is. I can't quibble until I know the "why" of it.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Rany -- fascinating stuff. Can you please explain a little more the discount factor? First, why 8%? Second, why a discount at all? I see the reason you gave in the text, that a 15th-year player is likely to have moved on to another team, but is the point of this study to find the characteristics of players who give the most value to the teams that draft them or simply to find the best players? Do teams draft with an eye toward who will provide them the most value, or do they, by and large, simply try to find who will be the best players when they reach the majors? Thanks!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Cliff Lee is shaking his fist at you, Colin: "I'll show you who the ace is."

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm glad this piece is free. I think I might link to it every time something happens and everyone is freaking out about how amazing or awful it is before we actually have any information.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is a strange website to come complaining about "new age" analysis, whatever that even means.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"extremely well-executed" Except for Miller's baffling inability to direct a group table-talk scene.

Sep 28, 2011 3:27 PM on Moneyball for All
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"bad positioning on the part of left fielder Shane Robinson" I'd call it unlucky. Tejada has a major-league slugging percentage that starts with a 3 and doesn't get prettier from there.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"allowing another franchise into our territory would set a dangerous precedent" For what, exactly, I'd like to ask Baer. If MLB lets the A's into San Jose, does that suddenly mean expansion into more Giants territory so before they know it, there are four teams into from the same pie that used to belong entirely to San Francisco?

Sep 23, 2011 9:57 AM on Losing Hope in Oakland
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Matt LaPorta and Chris Getz have pretty different batting lines. Freddie Freeman basically defines MLB average for 1B, at least by raw slash stats. If you waited around in a fantasy draft and grabbed him, you'd be doing alright for yourself.

Sep 23, 2011 12:32 AM on Life Without Fielder
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My sense is that the A's don't think Chris Carter can handle anything. They tried him in the outfield a little, but that experiment seems over, and they haven't given him much shot at the plate, either -- his contact issues have really gotten in the way. I think the comparison point for a Gio Gonzalez trade is Dan Haren -- he wasn't an expiring contract and they got a bounty for him because of that. The question is whether the division in 2012 and 2013 is in reach.

Sep 20, 2011 9:49 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Eric Hosmer is going to find you and deliver a few stern words about that blasphemous Bob Hamelin comparison.

Sep 16, 2011 6:03 PM on Kansas City Royals
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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By TAv: 5th-best 1B: Paul Konerko, .323 32nd-best 1B: James Loney, .258 5th-best 2B: Ben Zobrist, .299 32nd-best 2B: Gordon Beckham, .239 That gap looks pretty similar to me. Loney actually hits quite a bit better than Adam Kennedy, more in line with Alexi Casilla or Colby Rasmus.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Anyone's an upgrade on ol' Yuni, but outside of Jose Reyes, I don't see a free agent shortstop to whom I'd commit stacks of dough.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Just as a matter of process, backward-looking analysis that rips a team for not taking certain forward-looking steps bugs me.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't think the study in the Corey Dawkins proposal necessarily supports the idea that the twelve-second rule is being broken. The times there are pure pitch-to-pitch, but the rule is about how long the pitcher had after the batter is in the box and alert. You'll see batters basically wander around and stand with a foot outside until the pitcher is ready, THEN get in the box. The clock doesn't start until the batter makes it start. The study, in other words, tells us something, but I don't think it tells us about rule enforcement.

Sep 15, 2011 9:27 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Given that the final contract he signed was worth $16M more than what the A's reportedly offered, it's also possible that Beltre's management read the market correctly and knew that this was a low-ball offer.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I likely accentuated the negative a bit myself. Let's meet at a relatively objective compromise point: out of 158 pitchers with 75 IP or more this year (Lyles finished at 90), he is 125th in FIP, in the same neighborhood as guys like Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, and Mike Pelfrey. Not great, but a reasonable "holding his own" region to be in.

Sep 09, 2011 3:34 PM on The Houston Astros
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I agree with mrdannyg and backbrush above that this is a neat concept, rounding up a bunch of different voices, both in-house and ... uh, out-house? I'm not sure I'd call Jordan Lyles posting a 5.76 RA/9 "holding his own," though.

Sep 08, 2011 5:33 PM on The Houston Astros
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think career strikeouts are also in reach, especially if the strikeout numbers that hitters are willing to live with stay at their current rate (or even keep increasing?) for a while. It'll be interesting to see if we're at, or reach soon, a high-water mark for strikeouts that we look back on in 40 years and say "Wow, nobody's ever going to strike out that many guys in a career again -- look at all these contact hitters we have now!"

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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BPro's FRAA actually has Pie pretty positive, rolling up a +16 in his 320 career games, with no degradation recently. His UZR, by contrast, is a vicious -13 just this season (though he was at +10 for his career before this season, more or less agreeing with FRAA) so perhaps that's what Steven is looking at? Perhaps I'm slandering Steven by accusing him of relying on UZR, though, and his eyes, which have surely taken in far more Orioles baseball than mine have this year (or ever), or those of scouty types tell him that Pie is not a strong fielder.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Alex Gonzalez is terrible, but the typo in his batting line makes it seem worse than it is -- in real life, his OBP is not actually lower than his BA.

Aug 31, 2011 4:51 PM on Free Agent Frenzy
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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In this vein, I think in particular when a catcher calls for the high 0-2 fastball, he sets his glove at quite a different height (around the mid-torso, maybe?) than he probably actually wants the pitch (shoulders?). When a pitcher "muscles up" and throws that high fastball, hoping for a swing and miss and (secondarily?) to change the batter's eye level to set up the 1-2 pitch (or 0-2 again on a foul ball), they may be getting dinged more on command than we should be dinging them.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"For all we know, today teams lose them on that basis all the time." And for all we know, they don't. Is there any evidence of an actual erosion in play because of this observed phenomenon? Do bench players perform worse when inserted in games now than in the past? Is there a tune-in effect where replacement players do worse in their first inning in a game than in later innings? (Could this be explained other ways?)

Aug 23, 2011 5:15 PM on Catch a Falling Starlin
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Myth #1 seems like a strawman. I don't hear announcers or fans or anyone else claim that short players just don't get looked at -- the argument, IME, is that short players aren't given the benefit of the scouting/projection doubt, and thus they have to do more to prove themselves worthy of a high draft pick, a big contract, a promotion, whatever. The question isn't whether teams will give short players a chance -- the question is how much of a chance.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Why is it disingenuous? And how does accrued value have any bearing on whether paying Francoeur to play next season and the season after? (Except insofar as that value is accrued via performance that changes our projections of that future play, which is something that is mentioned in the article.)

Aug 19, 2011 12:03 AM on Royals Extend Francoeur
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Hilarious and/or sad that 7 BB in 7 IP is progress for Matzek.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This is tremendous. The parenthetical above the Utley-Ibanez graph is fascinating -- the umpire's head is in a completely different location! Reminds me of that piece about parallax I like to refer to from time to time.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Are "these pitch attributes produce popups" and "creating popups is a skill" actually synonyms? I.e. are the attributes that create popups repeatable, or do pitchers just have them happen sometimes? (Note: I don't actually expect you to know the answer to this, Mike, especially in light of your second sentence -- I'm not sure if we can know what pitchers are doing to create popups and whether they're doing it consistently unless we know what the pitches are doing that create popups. These are more in the way of questions poking a little deeper past my initial questions.)

Aug 17, 2011 1:11 PM on The King of Pop
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Harper can change the game if he reaches his ceiling" To what will he change it? I hope the answer isn't "football."

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Looks like 58 -- 74.2 career, and 41.8 peak. From this piece, the 1B averages are 53.5 JAWS, 43 peak, and 64 career. The peak isn't far enough below the average peak to make any never mind, and his career value is quite high. I wonder, by the way, whether "consecutive peak" players get more love than "scattered peak" players -- that is, as JAWS takes your best seven seasons, regardless of when they occur, as your peak, it treats someone with a couple of great early or great late seasons equally as someone whose best seasons are in the standard middle part of his career. I have no disagreement with this method, but I wonder whether guys who have a narrative built for them by sympathetic media types have an easier time doing so when they can point to a sustained run of dominance. For what it's worth, Thome's best seasons were (in chronological, not value, order): 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Whew.

Aug 11, 2011 2:46 PM on The King of Pop
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Is there any kind of consensus on whether popup rate is a skill? Tommy Bennett has addressed the question here a few times without, as far as I can find/remember, coming to a solid conclusion. Matt Swartz also did an analysis, but, as I understand it, he found a year-to-year correlation significantly different from what David Appelman and MGL have found. (I hope that link shows up. I'm not sure whether making links via HTML is allowed, and without a preview function, edit function, or, AFAIK, any guide to how the comments here work, I'm just going to have to post it and see.)

Aug 11, 2011 2:46 PM on The King of Pop
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh, and in re: Gene Tenace -- http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/gene-tenaces-real-name/

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Is there any point to calling it "production" if the difference between Nolasco's RA and Millwood's is (almost?) entirely chalked up to random variation + defense?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Looks like these two games are the possibilities for Geoff's introduction to Gene Tenace: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN197807280.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN197805090.shtml Tony Phillips is the reason I dislike Jorge Posada beyond all reason. I loved Phillips irrationally (and also rationally) in his second go with the A's in 1999, so when Posada nearly punched him after a home-plate collision in August, I lost my mind. The Daily News: http://articles.nydailynews.com/1999-08-13/sports/18116418_1_yankees-postseason-spring-training The Examiner: http://articles.sfgate.com/1999-08-12/sports/28603669_1

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oakland's rallying cry: "At least Coco Crisp is better than Brendan Ryan!"

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A lot of times, I complain about people using the word "peripherals" simply out of form. Here, though, I think the use of the word does active harm. Peripherals and production, for major league pitchers, are not two different things. Peripherals *are* production. Also, unless there's something funky about pitcher WARP on this site, "league-average innings-eater" isn't remotely fair to the man. 2009 was Billingsley's worst full season: he had 2.9 WARP. He near-doubled that to 5.6 last year (5th among pitchers in MLB), and PECOTA's got him down for 4.5 this season (taking his 3.2 (10th) and adding his ROS 1.3). That's a tough "star" standard!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I went and saw Rancho Cucamonga last year after Trout's promotion, so I was lucky enough to get to see him from the first row just past the 3B dugout ($7 or something -- I love the minor leagues so much), and I agree -- he's breathtaking.

Jul 12, 2011 4:32 PM on Trout vs. Harper
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think Ferber was well-chosen for your point, Steven, for exactly the reasons that ScottyB writes -- she's a giant of literature that you'd have to be a nerd to have read. As a geek, but not a particularly lit-geek one, I've heard her name, but never come particularly close to reading any of her work, just like many of the players you name -- I've heard of some of them because I read quite a bit about baseball (though (obviously?) not nearly as much as you seem to, particularly about history), but couldn't begin to actually tell you much about them.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I got an article where all the apostrophes displayed as little question marks. (Chrome, Windows, FWIW.)

Jul 11, 2011 2:54 PM on Surprise, Surprise
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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This comment was basically an article to itself, right down to the triple-dot notes at the end. Thanks for taking the time.

Jul 11, 2011 2:25 PM on Futures Game Stars
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Is Trout truly as fast as Bourjos? I know everyone says Trout is fast, and I've seen him get down the first base line and run down balls in the gap, but Peter Bourjos is otherworldly, isn't he?

Jul 08, 2011 8:21 PM on Trout's Surprise Callup
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Do players play through broken feet a lot, not realizing they're broken until the pain either gets worse or at least doesn't go away? That ATD seems pretty huge.

Jul 08, 2011 7:59 PM on Adding Averages
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Thanks for the answer, Jason. Is this an organizational thing, too? It's possible you've addressed this in other pieces that I've missed, but: would (just picking a team) all Orioles scouts be instructed/trained to weight the velocity, movement, command in one particular way and all Blue Jays scouts another and all A's scouts another? Or are teams just reading their reports with knowledge of who's filing them and remembering "Oh, Bob is a velocity hound so he gave the fastball a 70, but based on the actual description of the pitch, it's really more like a 60 given our organizational priorities?" (I should write dialogue for the movies.)

Jul 07, 2011 8:59 AM on Finding the Next Ace
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Bless you, Ben Lindbergh, for bringing this back. Always my favorite frivolity at Baseball Prospectus.

Jul 07, 2011 2:02 AM on Walkless Wonders
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh, oops, I replied above before reading this. This makes sense -- it's really just a missing comma after "above-average" that causes the entire problem. Of course, then the question becomes: is there any position at which there are 30 everyday players? How is "everyday player" defined?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: -1

I wanted to ask about this, too. What did this line mean? "possibly an above-average one at a position where there are arguably less than 30 players who fit that bill." Maybe KG is saying that throughout professional baseball, there are fewer than 30 players who even have the upside or current ability to be above-average shortstops?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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You could give it a Google +1 -- http://www.labnol.org/internet/google-plus-one-bookmarklet/19474/

Jul 05, 2011 3:32 PM on Leave My Mind Alone!
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The link about the A's rotation appears to be broken. Also, the A's optioned Josh Outman after Saturday's game, so the flirtation with a six-man for more than one turn through the order may be over.

Jul 05, 2011 3:19 PM on Six-Man Mania
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I still do not understand the concept of a pitch being graded an 80 if the pitcher cannot command it consistently.

Jul 03, 2011 12:34 PM on Finding the Next Ace
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Truly excellent. I lived for 18 months in Victoria, TX, home of the Victoria Generals of the Texas Collegiate League. Before I moved there, I had no idea that summer leagues outside of Cape Cod existed.

Jul 03, 2011 12:12 PM on Glory Days
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I liked this piece a lot, as I always appreciate attempts to get at some objectivity, however rough or imperfect, in managerial analysis.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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They're real. In particular as to Base Runs, though, I seriously doubt Lehrer knows what they are and is just throwing stuff out there. http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Base_Runs And plus-minus, or +/-, as I've more often seen it styled, assuming he's still talking about baseball, is what John Dewan's defensive system is called.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The scout note about Barton is hilarious since he's spent most of the year hitting second and hasn't batted third even a single time.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Is it something that might be in the works? Or are the adjustments that go into TAv unsuited to splits? (Perhaps this is a Wyers Question (TM).)

Jun 07, 2011 10:32 PM on Ain't it Grand(erson)?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't know what would happen if you adjusted for league and park, but weighting OBP and SLG properly means that Votto's line against lefties is actually better than Granderson's, right?

Jun 05, 2011 10:16 AM on Ain't it Grand(erson)?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think "more available to people" is still accurate, if we read charitably (esp. in light of the previous paragraph) and understand Colin to mean "more available to [the] people [who could not afford market rates]" as opposed to "more available to people [in general]". But now I'm just quibbling about your quibble, I guess.

Jun 03, 2011 5:11 PM on Walk of Life
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Johnson and Morneau's consistency is pretty awesome.

Jun 01, 2011 8:37 PM on Trot Times for May 31
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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My intentional walk reform, completely orthogonal to Posnanski's: make it like Little League, where the pitcher doesn't even have to throw the four pitches. The manager can just signal the guy on down to first. Half of my frustration (and my frustration is dwarfed by Posnanski's -- I don't really care THAT much) with the intentional walk is is having to watch a pitcher come set, check the baserunner, and lob a 75 mph toss to the catcher. And then do it again. And again. And again. Sure, once in a long long long while, someone will do something goofy and the game will end on a wild pitch or a runner still steal third or a batter will take a swing on a pitch that doesn't get far outside enough, but for the most part, intentional walks are dull and only serve to delay the good stuff. (I guess one could argue that they build tension? I'm not on that train.)

Jun 01, 2011 7:26 PM on Walk of Life
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh, ok, got it. Thanks for the numbers, too.

May 31, 2011 2:22 PM on A Wing and a Prayer
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Within one year of returning, a little over 28 percent of the 173 players suffered some sort of injury that caused them to miss time." For a sense of context, over the course of a year, what percentage of pitchers who aren't coming back from Tommy John surgery get hurt?

May 30, 2011 1:44 PM on A Wing and a Prayer
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh, one other point. The league average OBP-AVG right now is .069. The weighted average of the top-ten RBI sluts from that table is .065. That's not a perfect measure of hackery, but it's what we have in this piece. It doesn't seem a particularly aggressive group.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm not sure I can list all the caveats that I should put on this comment: it's only May, it's only two players, I didn't account for the different starting and ending situations, I didn't account for pitchers or defenses or parks, ... I'm sure there are more. But: Runs scored by the Blue Jays after a sac walk by Bautista: 26 Runs scored by the Angels after a sac walk by Abreu: 3 (It's kind of a hilarious difference, to the point where I feel the need to promise that it's not cherry-picked. I don't have a play-by-play database, so I compiled these by hand, deciding to just do the top two and see what happened.) There's a continuing conversation here from Steven's piece, and I want to make sure that what I said over there isn't taken to be more than I meant. Walking is a Good Thing: I've seen the RE tables. Chasing pitches out of the zone is a Bad Thing: I've seen the heat maps. I simply think we have to be careful about applying conclusions drawn from population data to particular situations without considering the circumstances of those situations and why those situations might differ from the average. We already do this selectively. We mentally deflate walks drawn by #8 hitters in the National League because the guy batting behind those players has a drastically lower-than-average chance of making that baserunner matter. We understand that there are a very few end-of-game situations where sacrifice bunts make sense because of the score, inning, and identities of the runner, pitcher, current and next batters, bullpen pitchers, and pinch-hitters. I don't think it's crazy to ask that we bring the same care to other analyses before tossing off "bad manager" charges and making universal declarations of "in no way" this and "would only" that. The two numbers above are hopefully illustrations of that point. Anyway, now that I've written another N words about this stuff, here're some fun tidbits from the data! Bobby Abreu has exactly one sac walk with a runner on first. Jose Bautista has seven. Thirteen of Bautista's 26 runs came after he walked with a man on first. Bobby Abreu lasted all the way until May 14th before a sac walk resulted in a run. From April 18th to May 9th, Abreu had four straight sac walks result in immediate inning-ending double plays. (He had another one on May 19th.) Six times, the man immediately after Bautista made an out, but the Blue Jays scored anyway. Nine of Jose Bautista's sac walks came with two men on. Two of Bobby Abreu's did.

May 27, 2011 11:26 PM on Sacrifice Walks
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"no hitter, confronted with ducks on the pond, says, “I would prefer not to.”" I have quibbles, Steven, mainly because I think you've been a bit hearty in this phrasing -- as you discuss for the rest of the piece, the point isn't a hitter saying "Eh, that guy on second can stay there, whatever," it's the hitter saying "I'd prefer to take the close pitch for a walk than try to hit it for a single or a possible out." Then there's also the "I'd prefer to focus on hitting the ball the other way at all costs rather than try to drive something so at least the runner gets to third." We've all been maddened by players on our favorite teams taking this approach, I'm sure. Further, there ARE Bartlebys walking the earth, players who, without call from the dugout, lay down a sacrifice bunt with a man on second and no out. I call this the Daric Barton Special, but Derek Jeter may have a patent pending. On the less quibbly end of the things, while I understand that this piece isn't meant to be a full study, I'm troubled by the flat conclusion at the end: "Were he to expand his strike zone, he would only diminish his value to the team". Has that really been established? Sure, we can click over to the RE tables helpfully provided on the stat pages and see that 12-/2 is better than -2-/2, but I'm not sure that resorting to full-universe averages is the best way to evaluate questions like this. If the only thing we know about the state of the world is that Carlos Beltran has a man on second, then we'd be happy to have him take his walk. But what we also know is what sort of skills Beltran and the players around him have. Instead of saying "the Mets' RE goes up .13 when he walks with a runner on second and two outs, so he should be willing to take a walk," I want to figure in that Dan Murphy, Fernando Martinez and the now-feeble Jason Bay hit behind Beltran and ask whether their odds of making an out are so high that Beltran ought to trade off a higher Out Percentage to gain a higher RBI Percentage. Some of that is a scouting/coaching question, in terms of whether Beltran has the ability to lower his selectivity in certain situations (or even to dynamically change his selectivity from state to state) without throwing off his entire game, simply making outs on all those borderline pitches he swings at, etc. etc. But I think there is an equilibrium point we could estimate from the outside that balances additional hits, additional outs, and the contributions of Beltran's teammates. Maybe in my perfect-world analysis, all of this stuff shows that the difference between the possibilities of the Mets' particular situation and the RE tables is some epsilon. My real point is that I think we're still far enough into the interior of the Land of Maybes that calling Terry Collins a bad manager isn't justified.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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For the A's, the roster angle is probably even more important than the talent -- they only have two relievers who have options remaining, Devine and Ziegler, but someone was going to have to go to make room for Andrew Bailey this weekend. Kevin, apologies if you've addressed this before somewhere that I've missed, but what's the word on Adrian Cardenas as a possible third base option? He's dropped off the prospect list radar, but just from his stat line, he's finally stopped scuffling at AAA, hitting for a ridiculous average with some walks, and he's still just 23. On the other hand, there's not much power and he's played much more left field than third base and he's DHing a lot.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I approve of "HanRamirez".

May 24, 2011 8:09 PM on St. Louis Supreme
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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That would be a pretty shocking SLG for a supposedly effective lefty-on-lefty guy. Luckily for A's fans, it's a typo -- his SLG against is .348, not .438. (Per Baseball-Reference.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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A's fans have been hoping that Oakland might be able to get involved in a Reyes trade, but I don't know how realistic that is, in part because I'm not sure who they offer in return. Oakland's not a terribly good team, so they don't necessarily spring to mind as a rental possibility, but that division is wide open, and once you get to the playoffs ...

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Tiny error -- Tyson Ross completed one batter and came out mid-AB to the second hitter when he was hurt.

May 23, 2011 10:07 AM on The Tighten Up
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I can't believe that people keep whining about this.

May 22, 2011 1:23 PM on Trot Times for May 21
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I can't tell if I'm just being an overly optimistic fan, but the A's are missing their 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th starters (Braden, McCarthy, Ross, Cramer), and you have to figure Oakland signed Rich Harden and McCarthy knowing that they'd get hurt at some point, making room for Josh Outman. By which I mean that part of this (the Outman part) was likely planned from the beginning, leaving the real scramble to be the fifth spot. It's unfortunate that McCarthy went down at the same time that Ross/Cramer did, and that Braden got hurt at all, but this is still a Cahill-Anderson-Gonzalez-fronted staff with a nice bullpen. I'm not entirely worried.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Semi-OT is the all-time classic NFL Superpro -- https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/NFL_Superpro I had the first two issues when I was a kid. I have no idea why.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
Comment rating: 8

Here's an exasperated thought: there is no "a lot" v. "alot" debate. "Alot" isn't a word unless it's this: http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html

May 19, 2011 10:26 PM on Ask a Sabermetrician
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Well, hey, they're both really young. You don't want to give them too much in terms of workload. It's a genius plan.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'd think that many, if not the vast majority, of players who start four or five or six consecutive Opening Days but not n+1 do so because of injury. I wonder how much that's true for the n=1 and n=2 players.

May 12, 2011 12:41 AM on Good Days for Debuts
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Kind of off-topic, but isn't citing SIERA side-by-side with RA sort of Gala apples to Granny Smiths? Could we just multiply SIERA by 1.08 (or thereabouts -- http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/1/2022427/ra-versus-era-1871-2010-baseball-data) to get "SIRA" or would that foul things up? Would we expect the regression coefficients to be significantly different if we were trying to get "SIRA" rather than SIERA? (I'm thinking of groundball pitchers having more errors behind them possibly artificially lowering their ERA relative to RA, and thus getting "credit" in SIERA for run suppression that doesn't actually exist.) (I beg forgiveness if this has all been covered before, here or elsewhere.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Speaking of the Rangers, I'm watching the A's telecast of Monday's game, and the Rangers apparently do a mascot race now! It's Bowie vs. Houston vs. Crockett. I tumbld a photo: http://jlwoj.tumblr.com/post/5412352013/mascot-race-in-texas-on-may-9th-you-can-see-the I went to two Rangers games in May, I think, of the 2009 season and did not see such a thing.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Someone slow Tosoni down! You should definitely be breaking 20 on your first big-league homer.

May 11, 2011 5:54 PM on Trot Times for May 10
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The NBA doesn't come close to getting it right, either, even putting aside judgement calls. Certain things are reviewable at certain points in the game, but unreviewable blatantly wrong out-of-bounds calls seem, for instance, at least as common as bad out/safe calls in MLB.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't watch a ton of non-A's baseball, but if I had to guess, I'd say Bob Geren averages an argument every other game or so (inflated by a triple-argument day just the other night), but hasn't been run yet (and hasn't really seemed to try -- he's a protester more than he is a yeller). I think he came out in support of Coco Crisp (i.e. to make sure he didn't get tossed) once, but the rest of the time, he had legitimate beef and wanted to find out what the deal was. It's possible I have a skewed picture of how managers act based on the team I happen to follow, but I think at the very least, the question of "how much argument time would be saved by an auto-eject rule" could be studied.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Much as we all like a good rhubarb, we could, in the replay regime, just make it illegal for a manager to come onto the field.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 2

Are you holgado from yesterday? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=13840#85245 You two should get a beer or something and leave the rest of us to enjoy the amusement Larry provides us.

May 10, 2011 11:00 AM on Trot Times for May 8
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Awesome, thanks for the clarification, Larry and monkey. (Incidentally, that's the name of my preferred drivetime radio show.)

May 10, 2011 10:58 AM on Trot Times for May 8
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'm pretty sure I've just been through the entire archives, but I cannot for the life of me figure out what a * on a trot time means. Help?

May 09, 2011 5:45 PM on Trot Times for May 8
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 1

I'm with R.A. There's nothing forcing anyone to read these, and if the rest of Larry's output is any indication, we're not being robbed of massive amounts of content because he's spending all his time on this stuff -- he gave us sphinx pictures and the Montreal orchestra! Besides, there's a good reason Larry's not doing distances and directions on homers: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ already exists.

May 08, 2011 1:59 PM on Trot Times for May 7
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Unless the A's like Tyson Ross more than I do, the five-lefties thing isn't long for this world, as either Cramer or Purcey himself will move into the rotation in Dallas Braden's absence.

Apr 18, 2011 1:30 PM on A's Acquire Purcey
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Does the table at the end count the links in this article? Or do we actually have to increment the entire list by one?

Mar 01, 2011 1:55 PM on The Genuine Articles
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't know if it makes any difference in PT distribution, but as a matter of Depth Chart aesthetics, I'm not sure whether Sweeney is considered the backup CF when Crisp gets hurt or whether that will fall to DeJesus, with Sweeney playing RF in his stead.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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He apparently does: https://twitter.com/#!/susanslusser/statuses/37655815548567552

Feb 15, 2011 3:36 PM on Players Out of Options
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 1

Four days late, but I don't think this article got enough comments, so I want to chime in with another, "I really liked this." As well-written as always, Christina, and about a topic near and dear to the hearts of many of us, but which isn't written about nearly as often as the coaching trees and strategies of the men on the sidelines in the NBA and NFL.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Don't tell me what to do!

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I thought V-Mart was going to be a DH most of the time, with Avila the "everyday" (whatever that means for a catcher) starter.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 2

"Basically, Podsednik does a lot of things reasonably well without doing anything really poorly." Besides hit for power.

Jan 24, 2011 9:27 AM on Outfielders
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 1

Prospectus doesn't have a Like button a la Facebook, but I Liked this comment. Mainly because I was going to say the same thing, minus the witty John Frum comment.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I'd assume that "seven hearings a year" is actually supposed to be "seven hearings a team", i.e. seven hearings in the five-year period. Hopefully we can get some clarification on this.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Not to pick on tiny little details, but Paul DePodesta joined the A's after Sandy Alderson had already moved on to MLB HQ, so looking to hire him doesn't really count as going back to his A's roots. If anything, it's going back to his San Diego roots.

Oct 31, 2010 10:05 PM on Reveling in the Moment
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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http://www.freethoughtpedia.com/wiki/Logical_Fallacies_by_Todangst#Fallacy_of_the_Pre-Determined_Outcome

Oct 31, 2010 9:55 PM on Game Two Analysis
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I love that he basically called Sean White simple. Tried to say he didn't, but ... yeah, he did.

Oct 31, 2010 9:46 PM on John Wetteland
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Off topic, sorta, but I'm curious what you mean by: "there are some publicly available models that are based upon historic data, but spit out fairly ludicrous lineups regularly". Specifically, the "ludicrous" part. Do you mean lineups that no reasonable manager would ever use? Or lineups that are simply _wrong_? (E.g. third-best hitter on the team hitting eighth or something like that.)

Oct 19, 2010 8:24 PM on Monday ALCS Projections
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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"Second, the player saves a roster spot for his team by forming his own platoon." In these days of 37-man pitching staffs, I'm not sure this benefit still exists. Who actually constructs platoons anymore?

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 1

The nice thing about the way baseball embraces its history (or at least the mythologized version of its history) is that, beyond the Hall of Fame, there's a whole panoply of local recognition of our heroes. Teams retire numbers, have team-specific halls of fame, have various legacy events when old-timers come back to the ballpark, hire ex-greats to do public relations and broadcasting, and so on. These kinds of things are why I'm a fan of a fairly small (baseball-wide) Hall of Fame (as to players, anyway).

Sep 04, 2010 8:20 PM on Hero Worship
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 0

I completely forgot that Sweet Lou managed the (Devil) Rays. The lack of Tampans on this team probably illustrates why.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Right -- it's also notable that a person need not be arrested before the officer demand papers. That is, papers can be demanded during a routine traffic stop, where the chain of belief would go: reasonable suspicion that the driver is violating some law; then, once the person is stopped, if the officer has a reasonable suspicion that the person is undocumented, they can ask for papers. In fact, if I remember the text of the law correctly, even more innocuous contacts are start the chain, since any legal contact with someone they reasonably suspect of being undocumented can result in a request for papers. The commonly raised fear is that X calls the police to report a crime, the officers show up, do whatever it is they were called there to do, then form a reasonable suspicion that X, the victim or witness, is undocumented, and ask her for papers.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Oh, woops, I somehow missed the DH thing. Thanks, Steph. As for the "not every team gets an All-Star" change being coupled with smaller rosters, I'm definitely for this, even if my beloved A's would likely have been victimized a couple of times over the last few years. Although you could probably return the rosters to normal sizes and still keep the one-per-team rule (if you wanted) by eliminating player voting. (In my ideal all-star game, both of these things are probably eliminated, but I'm not sure that's actually *necessary*.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I don't know if I would be as forceful in my answer to this question as K.G. and C.K. were above -- the issue that comes to mind is those who change their identities in order to move their birthdays up a few years. These players are presumably lying as to their identities and birthdates on their visa applications, and thus might be considered to be in the country illegally by virtue of having defrauded the immigration authorities. Just a few quibbles, by the way, on the immigration stuff. First, and this is REALLY a quibble: it's called "Senate Bill 1070", not "State Bill 1070". (Really, since it's actually been enacted, we should probably move past this bill terminology and call it by its Act name, but I'm hardly going to fault you for that, C.K., since no one else is doing it.) Second, and a little more importantly, the legal standard for law enforcement to determine whether they can ask for immigration papers is "reasonable suspicion", not "probable cause". This is, as you'd imagine, quite a bit less onerous a standard.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I think a minor injury to a minor all-star pitcher would be worth the sacrifice to get structural changes a lot of us would like to see: DHs in all all-star games no matter the park and smaller rosters combined with encouraging managers to actually manage the thing like a baseball game, with minimal substitutions.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
Comment rating: 1

I suppose you're agreeing to the entire comment, but I can only agree with part of it. Basketball is an exhibition, sure, but it's an exhibition that lets players make incredible individual plays that you'd never otherwise see in game situations. I mean, don't get me wrong, I find all the all-star games dull, but I think basketball takes the crown as "least dull" because nobody's pretending it's anything other than a skills exhibition.

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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The very first link in this post is supposed to point somewhere, but points nowhere. Probably just an HTML typo.

Feb 26, 2010 7:14 PM on The Owners' Rep Speaks
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Just read that the A's dumped Aaron Miles on the Reds. That should help their overall projection in the next iteration of this. (Although Gabe Gross presumably replacing Travis Buck won't help things much.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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There's an RSS feed for articles. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/rss/feed.xml

Jan 30, 2010 11:15 PM on Juice
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Chiming in late, but hopefully this is still being read. This is in line with some of the comments above asking for the full data, but I've always found it a little frustrating when an interesting new metric is discussed in an article on the site and then basically left behind. I'd love to see Adjusted Green Light Rate (or whatever far more catchy name you wanted to give it) incorporated into BP's panoply of statistical reports as soon as it's invented. Having already put together the code to calculate the metric on your own computer, it shouldn't be so onerous to translate (or have a DBA translate?) it for use on the site, right? To take another example, wouldn't it be great to see JAWS be a part of the site's statistical reports? It'd be fun to monitor a JAWS list to see exactly the date that Joe Mauer becomes a Hall of Famer. (JAWS is of course trivial to calculate on one's own, but who wants to check in every day to grab the most updated WARP scores and redo that calculation? That's what the statistical reports' update scripts are for, surely.)

 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 4

Yeah, that was a little weird.

Jul 29, 2009 11:40 AM on Who's Still Shopping?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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Comment rating: 7

The 10% number (African Americans in baseball) should never be mentioned without its context: 13% of the American population is African American.

Jul 29, 2009 11:40 AM on Who's Still Shopping?
 
Jason Wojciechowski
(1272)
Comment rating: 6

I agree that it's not about grasp. You don't have to understand how they're derived to understand what they mean. What you do have to do is be open-minded enough to believe in their utility over the traditional stats.

Jul 27, 2009 5:43 PM on Beaneball
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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I disagree with Will -- I thought the whole article was leading up to the point where Brian gives us his opinion. Whether we agree with it or not, I don't think it's a fair reading of the piece to say that Brian just gave his opinion without any support. The analysis of the options TLR had before him wasn't incredibly deep, but it does exist.

Jul 01, 2009 3:28 PM on LaRussa's Choices
 
Jason Wojciechowski
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You wrote, \"Against hitters with clout, finesse pitchers throw their fastballs not only with some extra tail, but they also add a half-mile per hour of velocity.\" That\'s certainly one way to look at it, but isn\'t it likely that it\'s a selection effect? That is, the finesse pitchers with the better fastballs will throw them more often because they have a level of confidence in that pitch that lesser-fastball pitchers do not.