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I'm more excited about the next deck chair, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70607">Alex Bregman</a></span>.
I was thinking that most intentional walks would be declined. At least the team in the field believes that they are better off with a walk than letting the batter hit that they are going to intentionally walk. Lineup spot #8 in the NL could become much more important, as I could see a lot of declined walks ahead of the pitcher's at bat.
I have Perkins and Colome. Another owner in my league has Boxberger and Jepsen. Which one of us should be angling for a Colome-Jepsen trade?
What if the batter were simply allowed to decline the walk? It would add all sorts of interesting strategic decisions into many, many at bats. However, such a rule change probably would be deemed too dramatic.
As was the case with NLCS game 2, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>'s prediction differs from Vegas's, where the Mets are favored. Let's hope PECOTA is right again.
Interesting. Vegas appears to have a dramatically different view of the game, as you can win about 150 dollars for every 100 you risk on the Mets to win. I think most analysis of this game consists of "Arrieta is pitching."
I would rank <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56806">Steven Souza</a></span> higher than he appears on these lists. If he performs at his 50% percentile <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>, 24 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> and 25 SBs seems more valuable to me than, for example, Pompey's empty 25 steals.
Looks like Bryant's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> projection has been doubled today, which has translated into a couple of additional Cubs wins. Very exciting!
Not mentioned, but Dan Vogelbach is the Cubs player you want in AL-only leagues.
When I read "Hours later, one of his rivals in the [MVP] running made his loudest case to date," I was excited to read more about Anthony Rizzo's two-homer game and MVP-caliber season. But I suppose leading the Cubs to a win that catapulted them to 14th in the NL won't be quite the "signature moment" for writers to remember when it comes time to cast ballots. When adjusted for inflation, the Cubs may have received more of a bargain in 2014 with Rizzo than they did with Dawson's 1987.
Thanks for sharing your very interesting perspective. I’m wondering about one point: You stress that working in baseball is not a hobby or a game, but do you think “second career” folks can be successful in the industry? I’ve always had a quick answer to the question “If you weren’t in [x], what would be your dream job?” (Hint: I’m reading BP in the middle of the day.) Since my graduate studies, I have reached pretty much the top of the associated profession. In contrast, one of my classmates decided to go in a different direction and is now the GM of a major league club. It’s not that I’m jealous, but it does cause me to think. Is there a reasonable chance for someone to start a career in baseball successfully after 40, or should I stick with what I already know I’m good at? Don’t worry -- I won’t treat any advice as the final word.
Although it wasn't in as important a game as the ones recounted in this list, Phil Cuzzi (of the terrible Joe Mauer foul ball call right in front of him) recently had one of the worst calls I've seen in person. He called a swinging strike three on a flinch by Donnie Murphy. http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/MurphyCheck2.gif.opt_.gif Maybe Phil Cuzzi occasionally just blacks out during games.
Wasn't the win awarded to Sale under Rule 10.19(c)(4), rather than "at the official scorer's discretion," as stated in the article? I read that phrase as a reference to Rule 10.19(c)(1), which only applies when the team assumed the lead during the tenure of the ineligible starting pitcher. Sale was the pitcher when the AL went up for good in the top of the 4th. I think the only way he could have been denied the win is if he was deemed "ineffective in a brief appearance" under the exception to Rules 10.19(c)(1)-(4). I would argue that an official scorer who deemed Sale's two scoreless innings "brief" and "ineffective" would have abused any discretion afforded him.
I returned to this article to note how prescient it is in retrospect. I enjoyed it at the time it was published (and picked up Cotts for my fantasy team), but now that he's put together a stellar month of work, this piece looks even more impressive. Well done!
I look forward to the Brett Jackson version of this article in a couple of weeks.
By the way, the Kindle version is available. I pre-ordered it from Amazon and it showed up a day or two ago.
I don't believe I have seen an update on Vladimir Guerrero in UTK since he went on the DL three weeks ago. Does Dr. Yocum's clearing Vlad to hit off a tee mean he's pretty much in the clear?
Speaking of problems fielding bunts, on the following night, Zambrano bunted for a hit, followed by another bunt for a hit to the same spot, followed two batters later by a Lee grand slam. Seems like the Cubs are able to give as good as they receive on this weakness.
I note for completeness that Swisher added "hahahahaha" to his tweet about his arm killing him. Not that we should be parsing his keystrokes, but we should consider that he might have been just joking around about the fact that he got to pitch.
I\'m not sure whether it\'s possible for a tables-intensive book like this, but I\'d buy a second copy if it were available for the Kindle. That book is tough to lug around when traveling...
(Not sure that this exchange belongs in the comments section to Will Carroll\'s column, but here it goes...) The one-something percent is just the chance that they\'ll catch the Red Sox (or Tampa Bay) AND not win the division. They have a 40-percent chance to win the division, and I\'m sure a number of those scenarios have them finishing with a better record than Boston.
Isn\'t asking Garza about a potential subconscious mechanical flaw in his delivery the baseball equivalent of the psyche-out technique in golf of asking your opponent how he can even hit the ball with that hitch in his backswing? For the Rays\' sake, I hope you didn\'t get inside his head.