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Will, when you write, "It's time the Mets led on something," I assume you mean lead on something other than days lost to the DL, dollars lost, or injury cost? Lets also hope that they don't lead in gaffes by the front office, though with the way they handled Carlos Beltran's surgery this offseason, it looks like the Mets are well on their way to leading in all four categories.
Thanks for the THR; I look forward to your article in BP2010.
Marc, Thanks for these articles and being willing to review your predictions. I prefer tiering with ranks inside the tier. Without tiering there is no way to know whether there is a significant difference between two players that are ranked near each other. This type of knowledge would be helpful when drafting.
Amazingly, all four of the Phillies "core" are players they drafted. The Mets also have done well with Jose Reyes and David Wright. Obvioulsy it is much more expensive to buy core players, e.g., Carlos Beltran and Johann Santana. (I realize they traded for Santana but it is unclear if the Mets would have traded for him without being able to reach an extension with him first.)
Now that it appears that Jason Bay is going to join the Mets, I hope you are right.
Although I like Bay and think he will be an upgrade over the inhouse options, I agree with Joe that Matt Holliday would have been a better fit. Holliday is younger and better defensively.
There have been rumors that Jason Bay does not want to come to the Mets. You have to wonder if the issues in the front office--the bizarre Tony Bernazard incidents, the way they handled Willie Randolph, just to mention a few--make it more difficult for the Mets to sign players.
Rather than make any moves, can the Mets play better baseball? Is there a way for them to stop committing so many (mental and physical) errors and baserunning blunders? Also, can someone please remove the bunt signal from Jerry Manuel's playbook. I also would like to add a "Do NOT bunt" signal for some of their hitters.
Will, thanks for the update on Ervin Santana. That's really too bad for Santana and the Angels, especially after the fine season he had last year.
If the firing of Jim Bowden is a fait accompli, isn\'t the timing just about the money? I assume the Nats could simply fire Bowden for whatever reason--he hadn\'t acquired enough corner OFs/1Bs, they didn\'t like the color of his socks, whatever--however, if they did so, they would have to pay him for the rest of his contract. It they fired him for cause, perhaps they would not have to.
I don\'t doubt the statistics but if you listen or watch the Mets\' games, it is hard not to blame other aspects of the team besides the bullpen. Take last night\'s excruciating loss to the Cubs. Last night, Oliver Perez blows a 5 to 1 lead, pitching less than 5 innings. Perez\'s failure puts tremendous pressure on an already overused bunch. Nevertheless, the bullpen does a decent job, holding the Cubs to one run (given up by Brian Stokes) over 4 plus innings. Meanwhile, the Mets offense fails to cash in on numerous opportunities to take the lead. In the end, Luis Ayala, in his second inning of work, succumbs and the Mets lose.
I realize this is one datapoint and it has no statistical significance. But, how many times have the Mets blown Johann Santana starts? Yes, the bullpen has coughed up those leads but most of the time the Mets have had opportunities to add to their lead and have not done so.
I am curious to see a comparison of how many runs the Mets should have scored and how many they actually have scored.
Yes, the bullpen is a disaster, especially since Billy Wagner went down, but this team also has other problems.