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The other thing wrong with Thornton is his inability to mix in anything other than his fastball. According to PitchFX data, he's thrown 50+ pitches in his last 2 outings and all but maybe 4 have been 94-97 MPH fastballs on a string. This is why he's given up 11 hits in 4 innings this year.
I think Santos will be the guy for Chicago when all the dust has settled.
In my 12 team mixed, I thought I would be ok this year by drafting Thornton, Storen, Soriano and Koji from Baltimore as my main bullpen guys and picking up free agents along the way as they always show up. So far I have zero saves with none on the horizon, lovely.
I think Kirk Gibson has said he plans to run a lot. I would expect that rate to continue, not sure about the Royals.
The Sox have just been on fire. As little as they have stolen, I find it odd they are still bunting as much as they are. A bunt led to that triple play against the Indians. They bunted at least twice yesterday. One was a good sacrifice by Lillibridge, which is a good call for him. The other almost doubled up Ramirez just like the triple play.
Keep in mind that teams hitting the crap out of the ball have little reason to steal. The White Sox have had more opportunities this year but have been hitting so well that they haven't run as much. They have succeeded on a number of hit and runs. They also had 2 steals in the 8th yesterday with 2 outs to put a guy in scoring position, immediately followed by a run scoring hit.
I'm sure this will level out as the year wears on, but their great charge out of the gate offensively has really skewed this stat.
If you have a team full of underachievers at this point like I do, I would suggest sending this clip out to any league-mates who are heckling you for being at the bottom of the standings right now. It is properly queued for an immediate response. It could also be the theme of this column.
From a fantasy perspective, I agree that PECOTA was bullish on Gio and Brett. Even if they come close to those projections, I was more bearish in my draft in that I just don't think they are going to get enough run support given the lineup behind them.
I've been wondering the same thing. I see updates on the depth charts after the last PFM update but aren't sure exactly what has changed.
At what point do you think mental injuries should be considered in these ratings? I mean, a day lost is a day lost. Maybe it should just be 'Days Lost' vs 'Days Lost to Injury'?
I'm sure that wouldn't be as easy to track as simply just DL Days, but wasn't Zambrano gone a significant amount of time last year trying to get his mind right?
I think onegameref's thought is semi-solid in that a Buerhle-Cards affair from afar has been going on for a few years and Rasmus had that infamous blowup earlier the year where he wanted out, I believe.
They definitely COULD be 2 guys on the move, just maybe not for each other.
OPS has been 90 points better post break.
Maybe it's naive of me, but to say there's little hope he figures it out by next April is a bit extreme. As a professional hitter, they use the off-season to evaluate things like this, look at video, and get back in the cage to get better.
I also think Batista is probably partly to blame for Hill's change in approach. You see a guy in your lineup hitting homerun after homerun after you led the team the year before and you are probably going to want to try and keep up. Just sayin....
While chasing as many bad pitches and making contact as much as the charts show, you would think he would be striking out a ton too, which isn't the case. His walk rate is up at the same time.
I think there's enough reason to think that he is a great bounce back candidate that will be attained a pretty good value next year.
I see Hill as a great value-upside pick next year.
I have to say getting crushed in fantasy isn't any fun, as I was crushed this year after finishing in the money all 7 years of my league. After having great keepers, and what I thought was a great draft, I was easily an early favorite to start the year. A good chunk of my team wound up having a HORRIBLE first 4 months of the season. I was in last place out of 12 teams the entire time. If the season were extended, to say...January, I think I would have a good shot of winning it. Instead, I will be right in the middle after having an extraordinary final two months.
That being said, in a 40,000 ft view, it is EXTREMELY difficult to forecast baseball statistics for a single season on a large scale(obviously!) The moral of my story is, while we definitely strive for a successful forecasting model while looking at the next immediate season, I believe PECOTA does a great job of identifying performances over 900-1200 at bats and 300-400 innings.
Or even very simply, I would like to see a PECOTA weighted means spreadsheet that shows the variance between what was predicted before the season and the final actual totals. I'm talking about the variance for every category on the PECOTA spreadsheet for every player.
From there, we could sort by stat, position, league, etc..to determine if there are specific trends or categories that we might want to pay attention to with the next iteration.
Has this surfaced somewhere else recently? Why was it brought up today?
Agree. I developed a calculation a few years ago for my standard 5x5 league that uses the stats from PECOTA to give me a single 5x5 score for all players. Until this year, I have finished in the money every year of my league, but I don't blame PECOTA. I try to build my staff around Ks which usually bodes well for me. This year, while my Ks were high, ERA and WHIP were in the basement and never recovered.
Would you want to work for or employ someone who performs his job while high, doped up, strung out or drunk?
He definitely didn't cooperate. I'm just glad I dropped him before the Braves did.
As a guy who built a fantasy draft day database completely around the PECOTA spreadsheets, I would really like to continue using PECOTA instead of having to start over with something else.
Progress is good, thanks for keeping us in the loop.
If everyone acted the same and agreed on everything, the world would be a very boring place.....different views are great as long as people aren't jerks to each other.
Yes. For a $103M, yes he is a bust.
I think you hit the nail on the head here. I have Jackson as a keeper in the 22nd round of a 12 team, 25 man roster league. As we only have 5 keepers, I think letting him go and possibly drafting him in the 10-15th round would be the position to take.
There just isn't much upside to what you see now. The upside is that he has another year like this year which is, like you said, just above average.
I agree. If I were a GM, I would not spend that type of money unless there was a completely proven commodity like CC Sabathia who can give you 30+ starts year in year out.
You need to ask "How many cheap, young arms do we see emerge each year?" vs. "How many young players have lived up to the hype and gone forward to exceed expectations?"
I would say just a handful of guys during the internet-info-hype age have done this, in all of sports: Mauer, ARod, LeBron, Crosby, who am I missing ???
MLB will not outlaw maple bats as they are a part of the CBA. Even if they were to outlaw it in the future, they would have to come up with a 2nd or 3rd replacement as Ash is said to be too sparce a commodity in the US as to meet the demand of professional wood bats. Birch perhaps, anything else??? Japanese Bamboo is considered a composite which is also not allowed.
There's a resonable expectation for injury when you leave your dugout to run onto the field for a fight.
If you run with the bulls, you should reasonably expect that you very well may get run down or worse.
That a concussion doesn't happen more often during instances where 50+ people are involved in pushing, punching, kicking, etc...is absolutely astounding.
Would we be talking about it the same if LaRue's concussion was caused by punches rather than kicks?
Probably not. A brawl is a brawl though, whether it is on a field or in an alley. If you feel threatened, you are going to protect yourself with punches, kicks, whatever. It shouldn't matter that he was kicked.
If you are involved in baseball, you say the word 'oppo'. Calling it stupid is like saying it is stupid to call a fastball a heater. It's the vernacular of the game, I don't see a reason to whine about it.
Drama with UTK and Digg at the same time?!
I can't take it.
I clicked on this article thinking I would see my keeper league lineup.
Thanks for bailing me out Houston.
I think he got taken under the pile pretty quick too. I wouldn't be surprised if he got his comeupance there before the crowd was dispersed.
I'm not excusing Cueto at ALL....but from what I saw in the video, I can SORT OF understand why he did what he did. It looked like the wave of players from both teams slammed him into the backstop and he had nowhere to go. Granted he wasn't the only one up against the backstop, probably just a natural response given he appeared to be using his hands to hold himself upright.
At the same time, the 8th grader wants to stay in high school and is going to act like a good kid so he doesn't get sent back, even if he is a bad kid after school is over.
Right, I'm not saying Will is wrong on the hand, I'm just wondering if he started his 'off-hand behind the back' comments with the right hand in mind. I caught my fair share of games through college and it's not always fun back there.
Otherwise, exposing your glove hand mid-pitch is simply a deathwish behind the plate.
I wasn't able to see a video of VMart, but if it was his left thumb, it sounds like a freak accident rather than a lack of fundamentals. His left hand would not be his off hand since he throws right handed, correct?
I get what you are saying, but honestly, if you are going to hang your hat on a group of guys, not just one, that is going to net you a win over the rest of this season than those guys are only slightly better than replacement value.
Which is it Jake? Are we talking about the OF that includes or excludes the guys not currently able to take the field?
Either way, you are making my argument for me. I think the point is that McDonald, Hall, & Nava will never be anything to write home about. Are you really trying to stand by a 10.2 VORP being a far cry above replacement? I think my point earlier that 28 other single OFs across the league have a higher VORP than the entire BOS OF to date should say enough.
28 other Outfielders....not players.
I think the appropriately quick analysis would be to actually compare the Boston OF's VORP(Value over Replacement Level) to other teams. Boston's OF has a total VORP of 15.2, with JD Drew accounting for nearly half of that total.
There are 28 other players in all of MLB that have a higher VORP than 15.2
Will's statement is accurate.
With Wellemeyer going down, does this allow the promotion of Baumgartner?
Risk/reward is what should be evaluated, not level of hustle. How often is a guy going to bobble a ball enough to allow a pitcher to beat out a grounder? Even if he gets on, he then increases his risk of injury further by being on the basepaths.
Definitely makes sense to take it easy on batting/running activities.
Had him as a keeper this year and dropped him like a ton of bricks last week for Chris Coghlan.
The Braves have been playing so well lately with Martin Prado leading off, I don't see that changing any time soon.
McLouth will probably be stuck in the 8-hole when he plays at all. If he's not being platooned, he's having foot/toe problems which I imagine negates much of his speed value.
If I am hanging onto Carlos Santana as a keeper going into next season, who would be his top comp for next year?
As someone who drafted him as their 1st pitcher this year, I have to say I totally agree with this analysis. He has had some outstanding starts which allows some hope for a nice rebound. You just have to be cautious with what you expect as a whole. He has had 6 really good starts out of 12, with 5 of them coming from his past 7. I think he'll be fine.
A good explanation of this guy for non-soccer folks would be appreciated. In other words, what's so special about this guy or this pic?
Can anyone point to a correlation between a high line drive rate and a high BABIP? I would have to believe based on the hit %'s of the type of contact made a BABIP would be influenced accordingly. I have to believe this has been done before but I don't recall seeing it.
I believe something like 70% of line drives go for hits, so if you are prone to hitting them your BABIP should be pretty high.
I think a call for protection would be an overreaction. How could the head be protected in baseketball? It is a minimal clothing & equipment game to begin with.
Nobody is going to trot out there in a helmet. Maybe a Richard Hamilton-type mask would have helped the blow to the nose that caused Davis' concussion, but they would never become standard, probably just reactionary for certain individuals. Elbow pads would need to be Barry Bond-esque, but then you couldn't shoot.
If people haven't seen the episode yet they should stay off the web until they see it.
I think if you were looking for all of the Lost questions to be answered, you will be dissappointed. However, the show was never about answering all of the WTF moments. It was simply about the people and the ending couldn't have been any better if you focus on that aspect.
Thanks. I totally agree.
In my league though, folding up shop means trading viable pieces for draft picks for next year. For example, without going into too much league detail, I'm in a 12 team mixed league with 5 keepers and 25 players per team. I've had a guy hounding me for Juan Piere. He's offered me multiple trades with the best being a 9th round pick (drafted him in the 10th). I think he'll be even more valuable closer to the deadline when someone is hot to pick up those valuable steals points.
He later offered a 2nd round pick for Kershaw (drafted in 3rd)& Pierre - very tasty.
My bottom line is if I can't finish in the money without trading away all of my picks, I need to start accumulating as many picks for next year while holding onto 5 solid keepers.
Can BP create a forum for conversations like this? It would be very helpful and widely used, in my opinion.
If there were a forum, one could post things like: I can keep any 4 of the following in their respective rounds:
Even baseball articles are kicking my a$$ this year. I'm in dead last in my league by a mile after winning it all last year and have been in the money each year of its existence.
Who and when is going to write about when it's time to fold up shop?
Your explanation of this "trade" has left me even more confused.
What exactly is it you are trying to do? Write about Luke Scott or have him on a fantasy team?
Two people can't write about the same guy?
If it aint' broke, don't fix it.
Why didn't Dallas go nuts on Evan Longoria after he attempted a bunt in the 5th? Isn't that an unwritten rule as well?
You're right. It doesn't do me any good with Theriot and Castro having the same off-days any way.
Sometimes it's just frustrating when you have a whole bunch of guys doing nothing at all(Aramis, Adam Jones, McLouth, Carlos Lee, Pence)
I drafted Theriot as my backup SS plan, with Yunel Escobar as my #1. I have Polanco as my only 2nd baseman.
With Yunel both struggling and injured, would you drop Yunel and pick up Castro?
I would then have 2 options at 2nd once Theriot qualifies, and also 2 options at SS with Theriot & Castro. My whole team is struggling and I am already wondering if it's time to look to the future.
I really like the Results piece you put together. It's a great way to gauge your fantasy advice after the fact, I haven't seen that anywhere else. Personally, I've been reading these columns but haven't been very active based on what I read. The results speak for themselves and I feel more likely to make moves based on these facts.
I just came across a story elsewhere that says Byrnes is going to be playing some softball with his buddies now.
Sorry, I didn't realize he was a broadcast talent. I thought he was just bad at baseball.
What do you mean by..." Sounds like there's going to be one last bidding war for Eric Byrnes between broadcasters." ?
tommybones, your arguments are valid to a certain degree, but contextually they are wrong.
At a sporting event, there is a great deal of trust had by all, especially those on the field with 25-50 thousand people surrounding them. Once that trust is broken, the use of a taser is completely reasonable.
This is the world we live in. Until the penalty for entering a field of play is more than just a slap on the wrist, teams should do what they can to eliminate any threat as quickly as possible once someone is on the field. The kid got up like nothing happened, he wanted his 15 minutes of fame and got it.
Honestly, we might as well say that society has gone to sh!t because there isn't enough harsh punishment for the things people do anymore. Kids don't get spanked, they get timeouts. This sort of thing wouldn't be an issue if parents acted like parents and not tried to be a kid's friend all of the time.
My kid calls me and says he's thinking about going on the field, he better know a taser will be the least of his problems when he gets home.
Accepted by every public agency that maintains a cache of tazers.
Is it excessive because it was the first time someone has been tazed for running onto a field of play?
If so, is it less excessive if your ticket stub warns of being tazed should you choose to run onto the field?
I have to believe every GM/Owner in the league would rather deal with a tazed individual than have to worry about one of their on-field investments getting assaulted.
If you are going to break the law, prepare to be dealt with. Tazing has become an accepted approach to subdue someone who is non-compliant with traditional measures.
I agree, he should have been tackled. Guys that run out on fields have certainly recieved worse on an NFL field of play.
This guy was lucky he didn't break anything.
I think a majority of my fantasy team needs their eyes checked, most notably....Aramis, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Yunel Escobar, Nate McLouth, and Adam Jones.
As a team, I think I'm finally above .260....
What disc(s) did Roberts herniate?
Is there any difference among the levels herniated(Cervical to Lumbar) when it comes to allowing baseball activities following rehab or surgery?
With Francouer starting well, assuming he keeps it up, any idea what happens to the Mets OF when Beltran comes back?
I pull the trigger on that NOW!! Saw a little of Matusz the other day, looks as advertised and I think O's lineup will produce.
I nearly included Pence in my thoughts above on who I wouldn't give up on. I have both him and Carlos Lee. I think BECAUSE of the lineup, Pence will be given the chance to turn it around, not that I think he wouldn't anyway. If/when Berkman is back, Pence will benefit even more, obviously.
Just be cautious of burning a guy too soon in the year only to be picked up by another team. I definitely employ churn and burn late in the year when I'm making my run for the title.
I'm not giving up on: Theriot, G. Soto, or McLouth. I think McLouth will eventually get pushed back to the top of the order. Melky just isn't a regular leadoff guy, at least he never has been and doesn't look like one now. The Cubs lineup and Derrek Lee will hit, which should make more opportunities for both Theriot and Soto.
Nothing's final at this point, that's why these get updated.
I like the thought behind the article, but personally, I would really like to see the thought applied to a much broader perspective, ie., the entire MLB instead of just one team.
As stat-based fantasy guy, I would like to see a snapshot, maybe the best 3 bets to close for each team with a couple quick stat lines - WHIP/ERA/Kper9.
In general, I would like to see a regularly updated BP one-pager for closers. I know other sites have them, but I look to BP first for all things baseball or fantasy.
I think RC1 and WRC are more a function of overall team offensive performance combined with productive hitters in the middle of a solid lineup.
Maybe this says more about where a particular player SHOULD be hitting in a particular lineup, vs what a particular player will accomplish on his own in the future. For example, Beltre should not be a 4 or 5 hitter for a major league club.
It's always a line-drive in the box score, as my Dad says.
I used a perfect game to get a baseline of the # of ABs that would have been used in this analysis. Of course I had to assume that after each side was retired in order all 9 innings the game is over.
Sorry, I forgot about Randy Johnson in 2004.
He used OBP as a measure of either an on-base event or not, as part of his binary regression.
At a minimum, based on 48,600 perfect games over 10 years for 30 teams, there would be just over 1.31M ABs in this data set. With Beuhrle's perfecto the only one in this time frame, I would guess the number of at bats are both significantly higher and significant enough to analyze.
Pitchers performance were factored in to this analysis using their OBP of hitters faced.
I like the list Marc. One of my strategies with a category like this, when I don't get a 5 or 4 star guy, is to simply grab a SS that sits at the top of a lineup and will generate a lot of quality ABs.
A guy like Jeff Keppinger sitting at the bottom of the two-star pile is actually very valuable if you can get him really late and have .300 avg with 50+ runs/rbi and hopefully crack 10 homers. I doubt he'll get enough at bats in Houston this year at the top of the lineup, but sometimes injury leads to guys similar to him slotting at the top of the lineup and getting a ton of at bats.
I take the same approach with Catchers. If I can't get Mauer or McCann, I'll grab AJ much later. He's the only other catcher with 500+ ABs, .290+ avg & .400+ slg. While not spectacular, it adds up over the course of the year with that many ABs.
As a tangent to your health reports here, could you also look at the dollars lost vs injury cost to determine how well a front office appraises talent?
Great season as always, thank you Will!
You mentioned the website maintained by a doctor for the Astros. My thought is in regards to medical ethics(?) vs competitive advantages in the game.
Do team physicians that are industry leaders in diagnosing/managing/healing certain types of injuries share their findings with anyone/everyone? I would imagine the answer is yes, but I wonder how much is shared openly when it comes to innovations developed under a team in such a competitive market place.
If I had to compare this to something else, I would probably use the example of Roger Bossard from the White Sox creating fields for other teams, as he is regarded as the best in the game for what he does.
why the neg?
Regardless of the hand that Posada injured, there's really no reason to NOT put your right hand either behind your back or knee as a catcher in most situations.
It is a slightly different story in a steal situation. With your hand safe as the pitch comes, you are already prepared for the possibility of a steal. No matter where you start your hand, if the runner is going, that right hand is going to be on the move in order to start the transfer from glove to throwing hand.
Throwing hand injuries to catchers should really be limited to foul balls when the runner goes or when a pitch is in the dirt and needs to be blocked (even then it should be behind the glove).
It's definitely not a good sign when you only throw 80 innings, but a guy like Marshall averaged 2 innings per appearance, which is much more valuable.
I could see Mariano getting a life-time Cy Young, but not for this season. It's pretty hard to argue for any reliever who has only 1 win and 36 saves at this point as being a Cy Young candidate, with wins being the apparent game changer. With 7 wins and 43 saves, Rivera was the runner-up to Colon in 2005 with Santana being an inexcusable 3rd. Just look at last year, K-Rod finished 3rd with 62 saves because Lee & Halladay both cracked 20 wins. Maybe this will FINALLY be the year where performance is more than just wins as Joe alluded to.
Looking back at relievers winning Cy Youngs, I came across Mike Marshall's run from 1972-1974 & then 1978-79. His win/save totals from those years were 14/18, 14/31, 15/21, 10/21, & 10/32. His Cy Young year of 1974 saw him log 208 inning as a reliever. I think this is the type of performance that should be rewarded a Cy Young as a reliever when having to compare to the performance of a starter who is generally in the 200+ inning range, more than likely having more value than a 60-80 inning guy mopping up at the end of games. Without confirming, I would guess WXRL would probably agree.
I was 6 years old at my first hardball practice and distinctly remember my coach telling us all to make sure we have cups for the next practice. I went home and told my parents that I needed a cup and wondered if there were going to be drinks at the next practice.
Maybe MLB can install a plexi-glass shield buried all the way around the mound, which the umpires can activate in the event of an emergency using a key-fob-like panic button.
In this case, Porcello could pound on the glass as he is enclosed yelling "What!?!, What's up now!?!" towards Youk and still look macho.
Speaking of the Verducci Effect....What is the outlook for Joba Chamberlain? He is currently +15 innings from last year and will probably exceed +30 after his next 2 starts.
Any thoughts on how his season ends?
Great call on the Dexter reference to Prado. Such a great show. Jimmy Smits was such a surprise in that role. I picked Prado up last week and always think of Smits/Dexter.
...donated blood last week at work (cable company) and had a bloody-faced Dexter poster staring right at me as I laid in the chair.
I'm not sure you can assume that. The Orioles are going to shop him as a lefty out of the pen who will get outs. If he goes to a contender he will more than likely be as a set-up guy because he is going to a contender. The implication would be that contenders have the closer role solidified, not that the Orioles are shopping him as a set-up man.
The NFL may be the most popular and profitable sport, but in terms of future-proofing their content, they are lagging, which is the point of the article.
At some point, I think the owners of the internet pipeline delivering streaming content will have to change their tune regarding classic television, and thus gameplan for losing that traditional TV line of business. It will become obsolete sooner rather than later. I think one of the end games is that customers will wind up paying twice as much for internet service.
Sorry, I meant 42nd out - the one for the record.
What was funny was Buehrle laughing after Konerko made the pick in the dirt for the 45th out. I think he realized that he was playing with house money at that point.
Marc, please take this as constructive criticism - I only hope to state what I hope could help improve the fantasy info delivered here.
I have to agree that this article, as are most in this series, does not offer much useful fantasy insight.
The title 'Rookie Pitchers' is about as vague as it gets. I would assume you aren't looking at the best of the rookie crop, but then why make a comparison to the crop that featured Lincecum & Gallardo?
The 4 guys mentioned are not going to help anyone decide a fantasy league this year at this point. Marc, you state these are guys to look at over the last two months and I would strongly advise against this. I'm not touching any of these guys. Price might be worth a shot as a keeper in big multi-keeper leagues, that's it!
Lists are GREAT for fantasy players, as previously mentioned. A BP list of rookies pitchers in this case that are coming into there own based on there last few starts with a look at some critical data when compared to established stars would be IDEAL. I don't want to read a big paragraph about each guy, especially when the payoff is 'use if you are desperate' or 'stash on your bench'. If I have the bench space, I doubt I'll use it on an average rookie pitcher. I would rather spot start an available veteran in a favorable matchup, or grab a utility guy with multi-position eligibility to fill my gaps down the stretch.
I used to look forward to the BP Fantasy articles, now I cringe when I open them up because I know this is primarily what I'm getting. I don't want to stop reading because, like these rookies, I'm sure the talent is there, just needs to develop more.
I agree that it is completely subjective at this point. However, I think you are arguing value in a conversation about greatness. Yes, Granderson's catch may well be historic at season's end, but so could a whole other handfull of plays, pitches, or hits that may push the Tigers into the playoffs. Yes, the intrinsic value of Granderson's catch is greater than that of Wise's catch. The difference is that at the moment it happened, everyone watching knew that Wise's catch was something that was a once in lifetime catch.
I would even argue that in a vaccuum, from swing to out, Wise's catch was a better catch than Granderson's.
I enjoyed your article and this debate, and with that, I rest my case.
I think you are missing the point Joe. Even if there are three or 4 plays in a year that have a win expectancy of 1, that is still happening at least 300 times more in the history of the game than the defensive play Wise made.
What is the deal with the Garret Jones end of this deal?
I read that he would now be the backup first basemen to Steve Pearce. Anyone have thoughts on this? Jones has been hitting out of his mind. I'm not sure how they could relegate him to backup duty just yet.
All things considered, you can save a game with a homer-robbing catch almost any night of the week, maybe multiple times a day on occasion. Saving a perfect game with a homer-robbing catch in the 9th has happened how many times in the 18 perfect games in the history of Baseball?
You can argue all time catches, sure, but I'm not sure you can argue against Wise's catch as the best defensive play this year.
I agree. It would really be nice to have an export to Excel or CSV option for this great addition instead of having to scroll through all the teams.
What do we make about Garrett Jones?
Fantasy wise, he has been fantastic, but he has nobody else in that lineup to help.
How about Corey Hart?
I just traded him straight up for Jason Bartlett in a keeper league, not sure if I'm having buyers remorse yet or not, but I'm pretty sure Bartlett wont hit 340 the rest of the way.
Why do we not talk about the balls used in the Home Run Derby?
Don't get me wrong, I find the Derby entertaining, but for the same reason everyone found Sosa-McGwire entertaining....the Derby is a cartoon and there is no way those balls are not super juiced.
Great read Jay, thanks.
At what point can we look at pitchers in a similar manner? Basically, is there a large enough sample size for pitchers that adds value to an analysis looking to compare actual performance to expectations? Is the sample size at this point large enough to determine to a certain extent who we can expect to continue doing what they have done thus far, for those that have significantly exceeded expectations?
Testing for weakness would be very interesting.
In my family, I am the oldest of 4 boys. We have all played college level ball or above. Between the 5 guys in our house(Dad included), 4 of us have had surgery to repair our right labrum. My Dad, however, had his on his non-throwing arm in recent years after falling at work, the rest of us are right handed.
I would guess genetics are extremely important and will become vital to evaluating talent in the future.
I'm doing the same thing with Atkins.
The point you are forgetting is that there is no guilty party here. The people Will deals with are not in the business of screwing people. They have nothing to gain by lying. If people are wrong on either side it's not due to malice, or the intent to derail your fantasy season.
I was hoping you would mount some sort of defense, or at least help us understand exactly why you are so bitter. If that's the best you have then I'm glad to see you chose to take your ball and go home.
By clearly not seeing that situations with injuries change frequently, you are continuing to fight against your argument that Will lends little value to his readers. It is an egregious error on your part to pick a fight with that train of thought. Baseball is not politics, situations are allowed to flip flop, as are points of view as details come out.
Your first problem is drafting guys in the first round based on a daily/weekly injury report. Your first pick is a near no-brainer EVERY YEAR - not Will's fault.
Maybe you should diversify your info - Will is never going to have all of the answers on every player all of the time, nobody will. Sources and injuries have a way of changing from what is thought at first glance on a pretty regular basis. Should he stop trying because expectations change from what he originally reported?
Please come back when you have something constructive to say.
thanks for the reply - I tried to craft my question about Atkins to be independent of context. My main thing was that I think Atkins is going to rebound and wanted some other thoughts if people actually think he is washed up. I am in a 12 team MLB 5x5 - I drafted Kouzmanoff but dropped him in favor of Rolen.
I plan on keeping Rolen starting until I see some signs of life from Atkins. My thought was that he has too much value to let slide. He did this 2 years ago and I managed to trade for him straight up, giving Orlando Hudson right at this same point in the year.
I think it's also very important in Fantasy to have a very good idea on which bench players you will dump first at any time during the year given the opportunity to grab someone from waivers or the free agent pool, or even to drop someone so you can bring a guy off the DL.
You really need to think about positional flexibility and the future performances of the guys you don't have in your lineup each day. It could make a big difference between being ready to pull the trigger when necessary or losing out on a guy because other managers were ready to grab him sooner.
Speaking of bench players, I had Daniel Murphy on my bench and dumped him to acquire Garret Atkins via waivers.
Atkins is bound to have a great month or two, right? I know he's had some horrible May's in the past - but the last 2-3 months of last year are a bit worrisome, any thoughts out there on him?
I didn't say he took or takes steriods, I asked about when speculation on such actvities should become relevant to prognostications such as these. I think blindly ignoring them is foolish.
second line should have read 'At what point'
Any chance we can have the ability to edit our own posts without writing new ones?
Great piece guys!
At one point does it become ok to speculate on possible steroid use as a cause for decline?
I'm thinking back to the days when Big Frank Thomas was slumping back in 1998. It was reported that his slump was related to marital problems, thus affecting his focus at the plate. He later acknowledged this as true.
It might not be exactly apples to apples, but at what point does an off-field problem get brought into advanced analysis like this? .....especially when we are trying to discern future performance....Whether speculating on possible marital or steroidal problems, given the timing of this profile with regards to the Manny news of last week, I'm just curious where the line is drawn at steroid speculation in an advanced analysis. Is that line moving at all with each new failed test, governmental leak/report or league suspension?
I know winning a Gold Glove doesn't always mean statistically you were the best defender at your position, but I hardly think you can say that Nate Mclouth is terrible with the glove. Granted he is about 4-5 runs on the wrong side of the ledger, I don't think he is close to terrible.
Gotta love that the first day I plug Freddy in for B. Phillips, Phillips hits a bomb and steals a bag.
Just picked up Freddy Sanchez while I wait out Phillips slump.
Very true. However, my thought was, and I'll try to put it into an American Idol context, you won't see too many contestants go up there and perform an operatic piece because you won't get a great glimpse of the contestants personality. Although that British lady with the 100M You Tube hits kind of throws that idea out the window.
I'll agree with that. I definitely had a bit of research and analysis, but I wanted to make it something that was, hopefully, going to be more of a fun read vs. a truly valuable analytical piece like most items on BP. I imagined that something too heavy with numbers might lose meaning when the judges have to read as many as they have.
It would be great to see the field widened, but I'm sure they don't want to read more than necessary as time goes on. We will just have to wait and see!
I wouldn't worry too much about the topic chosen. My thought based on the submission requirements was that they wanted to see an overall good writing style combined with a passion for baseball. Like you said, 1500 words does not leave a ton of room for hard-core analysis, so hopefully thats the case.
There's a book(audio) I had for one of my MBA courses that applies to this and beyond. It's called 'The Long Tail' I recommend it to anyone that is interested in business and statistics.
Basically, think of a distribution chart with a curve that levels out seemingly forever after the first 20% of a particular data set. The remaining 80% individually is so small yet so great in the big picture because that 80% is driving the greater whole of the industry. Think iTunes where 80% of revenue comes from non-hits....News is probably close to this if not there and Will's piece here is probably evidence of that.
If you have a your database set up with the HOWEID from the PECOTA spreadsheets and would like to incorporate the PFM stats.....try this, I just did and it works nicely.
Upload the PFM data with a self built column that concatenates the players last name, team, & age. This should give you as unique of an identifying ID as it gets.
In your database, create a secondary query that concatenates the same info from the PECOTA spreadsheet and then link that to the PFM data you uploaded. The only drawback is that the PFM data will only spit out the number of players your league will be drafting, vs. the thousands in the PECOTA sheets.
I have a mega database going for my draft with all of the PECOTA info and the PFM data on a screen that I can see all at the same time.
Does anyone at BP think this post might work better in a user driven forum where we can share more technical ideas and strategies more often? I do!
Marc with a c,
This is easily one of your better articles that I have read. You killed both ends of the spectrum: straight baseball analysis and fantasy purposes. Sometimes I feel as though you throw out a bunch of dots that don't always connect at the end, but this was something special, thanks!
See, the problem for me isn't so much deciding to go to the game (option 1 is best by the way) it's that I would have to go by myself. My buddies that I always go to Sox games with are in my fantasy league, and as far as I know they don't know of BP or at least just what they read on ESPN. Inviting them would open me up to so many questions where they finally realize why I finish in the money EVERY YEAR!
I think I'll still go by myself.
Can\'t wait to hear Ozzie\'s comments - too bad BP couldn\'t link in what representatives from organizations have to say about each of their respective projections. This particular projection has become very mainstream.
You could definitely go ARam 3rd, when healthy, he\'s one of the most consistent and underrated 3 baggers in the game.
Longoria is definitely a stud on the way up VS Jones and Atkins who have more against them than going for them...
I would go Arod, Wright, Longoria, ARam, & Chipper as my top 5. The nod to ARod over Wright could go either way, I just think the Yankee lineup benefits ARod much more than the other Mets help Wright. Unless I\'m mistaken, the Braves are going to be pretty awful this year...and I\'m not sure a 39 yr old Griffey will help a 37 yr old Chipper all that much...
If I \"can\'t get Jones\", than jeepers, I guess I\'ll just have to take ARod and laugh at one my buddies for passing on him.
Seriously though, I know you are basing this off of PECOTA as well as tweaking where you see fit. I would definitely see fit to tweak ARod higher than Jones. I don\'t care where PECOTA puts Jones, he just dosen\'t belong ahead of ARod in the context of Fantasy Baseball, plain and simple.
No joke, the PECOTA spreadsheet lists Sosa & Caminiti as comps for ARod.
You are crazy putting Chipper ahead of ARod. Scandal or not, all the numbers going forward tip the scale in ARod\'s favor, it\'s not even close. I would go as far as saying Chipper should be closer to 5th or 6th on this list. In what world are you living in where ARod doesn\'t break the century mark in runs or rbi\'s in that Yankee lineup. This is borderline fantasy advice malpractice. If I am wrong I will eat crow and apologize.
Either way, I\'m really fired up for the season to start, thanks for your columns!
What area do you live in? I work for Comcast and can help you find the station if it\'s available to you. It should be one of your basic digital tiers, but again, it depends on the area.
WHITE SOX - Say goodbye to at least two of the four slow oldies -Thome, Konerko, Griffey, or Dye. Get as much pitching for them as you can and use any extra $ to secure Danks and Floyd for the long-term. Linebrink & Dotel in the 6th & 7th innings should be plan B.
Coin flip was won by the White Sox