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wily mo--he's only 29! wonder how long til he's mashing in 'Zona
"If such an unusual play at first base happened where the runner is beyond first base but failed to touch it before first base was tagged by a fielder, MLB umpires are directed to signal safe as he beat the throw to first. If a legal appeal then retires that runner, he will be declared out."
my question is this--let's say the runner beats the throw but overruns the base, then trots back to first (since he's technically safe) and is standing on first base before the defense does a "legal appeal." Can the defense still do a legal appeal and win it, even thought that runner is standing on first base now and has "touched" the base?
there was a dodgers game several years ago where they won when a catcher named Encarnacion picked up the ball with his mask
didn't this intentionally dropped ball thing happen with Youkilis the other day?
i'd be interested in a spread sheet of what constitutes a "replacement level" player for a standard 12-team league.
wait, why are the comps on Pujols' PECOTA player card completely different?http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=PUJOLS19800116A
i completely agree on this. VORP for hitters would be helpful.
except when we're paying for this website and there are only three regular columns worth reading and one of them goes radio silent for 10 days in the middle of the biggest injury news of the year--except for a bunch of really cryptic Twitter messages and all kind of other media appearances (inlcuding football columns) that i didn't pay for--after bragging about reaching 1000 columns. not unreasonable to want to know whether this website is worth renewing.
i have six long months to figure out whether he's a keeper or not.....
that explains it... I'm in a Yahoo! league.
thanks Mark, much appreciated. yeah, my league is 10 games played. i think he only started 6, though.
Ben Zobrist qualifies (in most leagues I think--he played 13 games there) at SS... what would his star ranking be?
thanks Eric. I guess i'm just confused about what the heck SIERA is. is it a prediction of ERA for next year? is it an indication of what the ERA should have been last year in a neutral world?
well, first of all, i'm not entirely sure why the wheel needed to be reinvented here, but for the sake of argument let's just say it did. why couldn't you have waited a year before giving it such a prominent place in the new BP2010 book--iron out the rough edges? maybe put an essay in the back or something? i mean, the whole D-Backs section of the book is about how they performed compared to SIERA, and i couldn't figure out if it was that they underachieved, overachieved or neither. in any case, clearly, this stat still needs some tweaking before it can be really described as the top predictor on the market.
when is PECOTA being released?
Echoing some above sentiments, I hope that Sheehan's departure was his choice and not BPro's, and I hope Christina did not want to do TA anymore, and not BPro, b/c those are two of the last really good reasons to come here. I always felt their writing was the competitive advantage that kept BPro relevant compared to other sites....I'm just not sure what's left that's worth paying for.
I liked this article the first time...when I read it on fangraphs:
Vintage Joe. Different angle than everyone else, only the angle everyone else will have a few months down the line.
So you want them to spend more money on shortstop on a free agent or trade bait, b/c obviously they don't like their in-house options enough? Paying Lugo and Scutaro $15 million next year isn't enough? Best FO in the game, though.
And you expected Polanco, in the decline of a better career but 34 as well, to make less money than you expected Scutaro, coming off what most indications point to as a huge fluke of a year at 34, to make? Really?
I realize their is a premium for SS versus 2B (or 3B) defense, but a) you expect Scutaro to be a utility guy eventually, thus diminishing that advantage, and b) there aren't that many signs that Scutaro is anything particularly as a defensive player anyway. I just don't understand your read on the free agent market at all.
Best FO in the game, though.
Would you have thought that Marco Scutaro would have gotten $12.5 million guaranteed over two years (including the buyout) at 34 years old from the best front office in baseball, and giving up a draft pick to boot?
Sort of amazing that at no point do you acknowledge you completely misread the market last year, Joe, other than saying what you initially labeled was the biggest mistake of that round of decisions was correct.
Oh, and Polanco ends up with a 30% raise and a three-year deal. Then again, that's not exactly a stretch when his old deal was for $4.6 per---the odds that the market was so soft he'd only get $3.7 million for one year, or 80% of his old deal, were minimal. Crack research there, Joe.
it's not the results that bother me. it's the way the decision was made.
no offense, but i'm not particularly thrilled to learn that the voter had no idea until today that he was voting on the Cy Young. and that the decision was made in hours, not days. and that it was made BEFORE watching video of all the players. and that it was sealed with a phone call to a single player.
BP lobbied for this, and the premise was we'd get a more thoughtful and quantitative vote from their representatives. This one seems more like an intuitive, haphazard vote.
Missed it, good tip. Sounds like both places are overrated. I just figured since Joe was there sitting not too far away he would've picked up on it and been slightly less effusive, since it sounds like neither city has a park that is that crazy anymore.
Great crowd, but you could clearly hear "Hip Hip Jorge" on the Fox broadcast in the 8th inning, and half the seats behind the catcher in the later innings. Might be the rich folks, might be where they had the mics, but probably not going to hear that at Yankee Stadium in the WS.
i believe the roof was open for both games at Minute Maid Park in the 2005 World Series.
You guys still love Girardi's bullpen management?
It's not worrying about the 15th inning...it's about putting your best pitchers on the mound to give your chance to win.
Would you rather have 30 pitches of Joba or Robertson? Thirty pitches of Hughes or Aceves? You ended up with 19 pitches from your top two setup men (instead of 19 pitches from one of them) because Joe was managing for the moment. It's not about the 15th inning---it's about the 10th, the 11th, the 12th, which were not ridiculously highly unlikely, in which one or the other of your two setup men (or Mariano) could've been pitching, instead of your fifth-best guy.
Though, I would suggest, using Marte as a LOOGY in a deadlocked game was pretty silly, considering at that point it was far from ridiculously highly unlikely.
How is throwing in Hughes for Joba---hyped all week as a possible 8th inning option---after 10 pitches "playing several innings ahead"? If not, then why was Hughes not brought in the 7th to take over for Burnett? Because he's an 8th inning guy? That's a little rigid, no?
Weaver was at best the third-best option available to Torre that game, certainly far worse than Mariano. Joba right there was the best option, for the current inning or several innings ahead.
If not for a throwing error, Robertson was already overstretched and the plan would've been Gaudin until he faltered...that's a good idea? What would've happened if Gaudin got tired? Cervelli? This was the height of the short-sighted micromanaging that has become Girardi's hallmark. Not to mention not carrying Hinske because he needs to throw a new pitcher out there every 5 pitches.
So, in a game that it was easy to see going extras (perhaps many extras), using your two best setup men for a total of 21 pitches (not to mention Marte for one batter) makes sense?
Joe, judging by your paragraph regarding the starters, you seem to think that the Yankees might have the advantage in just two of the 7 games...you at no point suggest that the Angels will have an advantage (except, perhaps for Games 3 and if there is a second Pettitte-Weaver in Game 6, implicitly) so the Angels have the advantage at most in two games. (I guess you are thinking of a potential Gaudin start as a disadvantage).
This is either a wash or a slight advantage to the Yankees based on your analysis, yet you say they "might not have the best rotation in this matchup." I mean, what is your point here?
Anything on Lance Berkman?
umm...well, weren't the Rockies a few years back about a .950 team for a four-week span heading into the playoffs (and then the Series?) You can't possibly believe the Cards (any version you would like to construct) are a "true" .750 or .920 team, can you Joe? And "best team in baseball," without mentioning any AL teams?
The sloppiness is getting to me.
yeah but they cut him and are just eating his contract
I think you're REALLY letting Hendry off the hook in general, and in specific for the Bradley deal. He could have had Adam Dunn, who is far more of a consistent (and healthy) hitter than Bradley, for one rather cheap year. He could have had Hudson for one year. He instead overpaid for a guy who has been hurt his whole career (mental issues notwithstanding) and he also gave a multi-year deal to the terrible Aaron Miles to fill in DeRosa's spot. Luis Vizcaino is getting paid to not be a Cub.
Red Sox, as a team, are 23rd in FRAA at -18 I think. It's one thing to do that if you've got an absolute powerhouse offense. It's another if your offense is another problem.
UZR has the Red Sox as similarly one of the worst defensive teams in baseball at -4 as a team: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2009&month=0.
The Red Sox are PAYING for Lugo to play elsewhere, and got virtually nothing of value for him in return. He is vastly superior to Green and I'd argue is a pretty good upgrade over a healthy Lowrie at short; it seems a valid criticism of Theo that Lugo is in St. Louis on Boston's dime and the Red Sox's hopes are somewhat pinned on acquiring Christian Guzman. Even if you argue that Lowrie should have come back a bit stronger given expectations, Lugo's still a better use of the roster spot than Nick Green.
agreed, that is more what I meant, anyway---I don't think it changes the point (nor do you, it seems).
You should probably point out that of the three and four better teams in the run differential and third order winning percentages, two are in their own division. I wouldn't say that's encouraging; the Rays have been underperforming for a bit and are due, wouldn't you say?
Also, how can you not address that Theo put this team in this position by paying their best SS to start for another division leader, and not really successfully addressing short stop for five years?
Regardless of your opinion (noticeably not backed by any substantive analysis of the rest of the starters' performance) that they have six good options to start, they have real problems in the back end of the rotation. Bucholz is still learning the ropes, Penny has nosedived, and Wakefield is uncertain to perform any better than average. How is that a point of strength beyond the Lester-Beckett combo, which is going to have to win around 90% of its starts to make up for the rest of the rotation.
Finally, the Boston defense is not mentioned here, and it's hard to argue it is anywhere near compensating for the decidedly average hitting (at best) at nearly every position except for wherever Youkilis is playing or the rare days they put Martinez at catcher.
How, I ask, is this the best franchise in the game, as you've kept saying for months? How are the above issues not something worthy of concern?
My question about the Rockies is how they can keep on winning in Mile High Stadium.