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John Collins
357 comments | 292 total rating | 0.82 average rating
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John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

very helpful, thanks!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I'm happy to see this but it reminds me that we never saw the results of the Internet Awards voting from last fall.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

It would be interesting to see how much turnover there has been from year to year, for each team.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

"it’s hard to not look at the 2017 club and feel very good about it." I find that a very confusing sentence.

Mar 28, 2017 1:29 PM on Seattle Mariners
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I thought research by Bill James showed that, contrary to what you might expect, young players with "old player skills" tended to decline sooner/quicker than players with young player skills. Has that been shown to be false?

Mar 27, 2017 11:44 AM on Carlos Santana
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Fantastic article, Russell!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I agree that the transfer rule was a bad one, but why is it bad to have a balk called nearly every other game? I think that might make the game more interesting and would juice the running game a bit.

Feb 13, 2017 11:50 AM on The Year of the Balk
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

It was noted that NYY would have Carter under control for three years. One reason the Brewers let him go, though, was that the salary he was expected to get through arbitration was way too high. Do you think that the way the free market has evaluated Carter -- worth $3M, not $9M -- would affect his arbitration value, should the Yanks go to arbitration with him next winter?

Feb 12, 2017 10:09 AM on Worst Base?
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 8

Can I pay extra to filter out troll comments?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I think the Cards' offensive gains are being a bit overstated. The league increased runs per game from 4.11 in 2015 to 4.44 (and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> from .713 to .734) in 2016. And this seems born out by those sOPS+ figures. On average (not counting pitchers), the increase from 2015 to 2016 was about 1.5 points.

Feb 07, 2017 10:28 AM on Counting Cardinals
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

But he played over 40 games at 3B, surely the better position to be available at.

Jan 31, 2017 9:33 AM on Third Base
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

He's eligible at SS so I am sure he will be listed there.

Jan 30, 2017 8:57 AM on Third Base
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 5

No <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Miguel+Sano">Miguel Sano</a></span>?

Jan 30, 2017 7:19 AM on Third Base
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Love the Mike Ehrmantraut!

Jan 27, 2017 12:06 PM on Need You To Need Me
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106875">Max Schrock</a></span> makes me think of Nosferatu!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I was wondering the same. My guess is that the Royals don't pay, or pay only through the end of this season.

Jan 24, 2017 10:19 AM on Best of the Rest
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Point taken about Hedges and Ausmus, but by BP's current defensive metrics, Ausmus had a career <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> over 38, higher than people like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Justice">David Justice</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=879">Troy Glaus</a></span>.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

They have a $2 million option on Gallardo for 2018? Or do you mean a $2 million buyout if they don't pick up the option?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I looked up maybe the ultimate McEwing, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1478">Denny Hocking</a></span>, and calculated that he got an 82 four times in a five year span, from 1999 to 2003 with Minnesota, with some surrounding 73 and 67 scores.

Jan 04, 2017 12:53 PM on The McEwing Score
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Well, "the Dodgers starter from the introductory paragraph" *did* denote Belcher. So he while he was not mentioned by name, he was picked out via definite description. What it is to mention an individual is somewhat ambiguous.

Dec 15, 2016 9:46 AM on Wanna Bet?
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Great article! Very informative with trenchant analysis!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=24438">Dave Kingman</a></span> had 35 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> in 1986 -- not the league leader, but still -- went free agent and nobody signed him. That's the closest similarity I can think of.

Dec 02, 2016 11:47 AM on Coming (Back) to America
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Minnesota might be a good landing spot for Lamb, what with a new excellent pitch framer, Castro, and a great defensive CF, Buxton, and a team desperately in need of pitching help.

Nov 24, 2016 6:27 AM on Lefty, Lefty, Lefty
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Fun piece!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Another funny thing about that sports contest in the Iliad is that the contestants ask for, and receive, assistance from one god or another in winning. Oedipus asks one god to make an opponent slip and fall, for instance. Seems like bad sportsmanship, defeating the purpose of an athletic competition. Should we say that praying for victory in sports is bad sportsmanship, an attempt at cheating?

Nov 03, 2016 1:17 PM on The Gray Area
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Rather than supposing that it is an advantage in the division series to have scored fewer runs while an advantage in the championship series and world series, isn't it likelier that this is a small sample size issue? I think it would be better to lump all the postseason series together to get a better sample size.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Me too. I think sometimes that weirdness for its own sake, as opposed to weirdness out of necessity, is the best kind.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, and I'd add G7 of 1991 to the list.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

But the McDonalds employee can choose not to represent the company by not wearing the polo shirt. Does Clevenger have no way to speak publicly while not representing the team?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Actually, it says there that the Twins will win about 70 this season. Closer to 60. About five games off anyway.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Is it really true that we should expect a team's record in 1-run games to be similar to it's record in other games? I'd think the record in close games you'd expect to be closer to .500.

Sep 21, 2016 7:48 AM on All a Matter of Luck
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I'd think Mauer is more likely than Molina or Martin. Three batting titles as a catcher and (likely) over .300 career average? Sure, that's using traditional evaluation methods, but I think he gets in on the strength of his early stardom, much like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ernie+Banks">Ernie Banks</a></span> did.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Polanco is ready to step in at 2B but right now they have him at SS. Do you think he cannot stick there?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Enjoying the philosophical pieces. Aren't people really Ships of Theseus? We change all our molecules over a long period of time but are judged to be the same human being.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I am a big fan of Henry Druschel's articles. Even though I'm a Twins fan who'd have been thrilled to see them sneak in last year, I lean towards the fair argument. Anyway, nicely done.

Sep 13, 2016 11:17 AM on Two Visions of October
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

The trouble is that given current start times, people (especially kids) can't stay up until the end of the game. But if you move them earlier, then West Coast people with jobs miss the game.

Sep 13, 2016 11:14 AM on Two Visions of October
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

The Minneapolis paper is saying that one reason for Ryan's dismissal is a disagreement between him and the Pohlads about how to rebuild the team. No indication what the disagreement was, though.

Jul 19, 2016 8:55 AM on Twin Killing
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31607">Ervin Santana</a></span> might be a good one to go for. If they take on most of his salary, the prospect load might be light.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Actually, 0 to 0 isn't a ratio at all. But it is an equality.

Jun 08, 2016 10:57 AM on Monday, June 6
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Cool. I'm having a hard time believing that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=20005">Steve Carlton</a></span> was nicknamed Lefty because he was a pool boy as a kid.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Your last footnote about moving the CF a step towards left to abide by the rule is what occurred to me immediately. Given that most managers would do that frequently, how could the rules be changed to block the shift? Require that either the SS or 3B plays to the left of 2nd base?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Coke gave him 8 runs last year in 12.7 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a>, not 8 homeruns. (Just two <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>.)

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Congratulations to all the winners!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Nice! Also, David Hume was the greatest of the British empiricists, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23755">Tom Hume</a></span> pitched for Cincinnati. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=G" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('G'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">G</span></a>.<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=E" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('E'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">E</span></a>. (George Edward) Moore was one of the greats of the 20th century, and a few <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=George+Moore">George Moore</a></span>'s played ball. There's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57866">Christian Friedrich</a></span> (though Nietzsche might not have approved of his first name). There's an <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18630">Eddie Bacon</a></span> (Francis Bacon), and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=25230">Bill Ludwig</a></span> (Wittgenstein).

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Is there a way for us to look up what we picked to beat PECTOTA? I've already forgotten.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Ashley, do you know what ATL has to pay Bourn if they cut him in the next day or so? If they can save a lot of that $14M, you'd think that would be the easy decision.

Mar 28, 2016 10:15 AM on Battle for Fourth Place
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I hope we have Predictatron again. This is another nice way for us all to try to pit ourselves against <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>.

Mar 25, 2016 12:00 PM on Beat PECOTA: We Dare Ya
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 4

Can you explain what it means that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span>'s 90th percentile projection comes in well below last year's performance, but he is also listed as 575 likely to improve? Is this improvement not over last year, but "improvement" over the projection?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Maybe this was meant as ironic, but I found this statement odd: "the rationally acting All-Star should hope when he signs the mega-deal that he spends a couple years an albatross. It’s really the only way he’s going to get market rate for his services in the long run." Given that your salary is the same either way, is it rational to want to give less value to the team in exchange, in order to make the exchange more equitable?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

No, Kasich has not dropped out. Some polls show him as #2 in New Hampshire, in fact.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks

Jan 22, 2016 4:53 AM on Fin
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

No, that link for 2015 just has the 2014 data.

Jan 21, 2016 9:31 AM on Fin
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Or the team might think that *another* team will make a suboptimal decision. Even if Price is not worth more than 4/127 in three years, there might be a team that will give it to him anyhow.

Dec 02, 2015 11:20 AM on Oh, Hello David
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, I'd appreciate that too.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Bret, Can you say anything about why you are dubious of Byong-Ho Park?

Nov 11, 2015 10:38 AM on Home Runs: A Deeper Dive
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Matthew, Part of that Twins logjam is Mauer. Do you think they should stick with him at first, or should they consider a lineup with Park/Sano at 1st/DH and Plouffe at 3rd?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

If I understand this correctly, the "PBWP Saved" category is about how many <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PB</span></a> and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WP</span></a> are *prevented*. And saving is the opposite of preventing. I don't understand the general use of "save" to mean it's opposite, "prevent".

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't Molitor well ahead of Bannister by the criteria of actual winning percentage outstripping both <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> and third-order perecentage? MN exceeds their 3rd order by 66 points, and I think they top PECOTA by close to 80.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I think another reason that belief in the hot hand persists is that people don't understand randomness well. If a player has a streak of success followed by one of failure, they think this is inconsistent with randomness. Funny tangent: the iPod used to have a random shuffle feature, but people got made when it played the same song twice in a row. So Apple changed it so it wouldn't, making it less random, even though people thought this way it was more random.

Sep 24, 2015 12:01 PM on Going Streaking
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

According to wikipedia, Bahnsen got in an on-field fight with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=27492">Vada Pinson</a></span>, who knocked him down in one punch. I remember Bahnsen mainly from baseball cards, though.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

These comments are a hoot!

Aug 07, 2015 9:01 AM on August 5, 2015
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

A non-move I'd like to see analyzed is the Twins not picking up anybody at the deadline (other than Jepson). Did they blow an opportunity to make the best of this surprising contention, or were they so likely to fizzle anyway that giving up even so-so prospects on marginal upgrades would have been unwise?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Actually, it is Eduardo Nunez who is Escobar's Twin, not E Perez.

Jul 24, 2015 9:47 AM on July 22, 2015
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

This is one of the reasons I love BP.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

The <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=32817">Nick Blackburn</a></span> reference made me smile!

Jul 08, 2015 5:26 AM on July 8, 2017
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Wow, I woke up to a rather strange April Fools in July BP day.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

This is strange. I'm feeling like Rip van Winkle this morning.

Jul 08, 2015 5:12 AM on Pitchers and Picks
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

What bad habits did <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1310">Johnny Damon</a></span> have?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, praying for God to help you win is unsportsmanlike. It is an attempt to cheat. It is asking for a third party non-participant to intervene in support of one over the other, much like bribing a referee. (Or perhaps like trying to bribe an imaginary referee.)

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Fallacies are mistakes in reasoning, so appeal to authority is fallacious only when it is an inappropriate authority. You should appeal to the authority of climate scientists about climate change, but you shouldn't appeal to the authority of climate scientists about the strength of Houston's amateur draft.

Jun 14, 2015 11:56 AM on Draft Strategies
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31759">Joe Mauer</a></span>'s extension might be a good choice for the Twins. They bought high and now are paying for a mediocre 1b.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 5

This was an excellent article. It reminded me of old <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/joe_sheehan">Joe Sheehan</a> columns.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Does anyone know what Pecota said about Toronto for 2013? Was it as optimistic as everyone else was?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Great article. This was very informative. I'm an avid Twins fan but I didn't know a lot of this stuff.

Feb 23, 2015 1:32 PM on Kyle Gibson
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I notice Eddie Perez had one of the top single year totals too. As kcheaden suggests, getting these strike calls out of the zone might have as much to do with the pitcher as with the catcher. Has anyone done a study focusing on pitchers abilities to get strikes out of the zone (or balls in the zone)?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Cheers to Kate Morrison for sticking up for minor leaguers.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Huh, I would have thought that Oakland was the Arthur Miller of Lester's career. (Oakland being the brainy types, and Lester being the glamorous one with so many suitors.)

Dec 15, 2014 1:10 PM on December 8-14, 2014
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

If "The Natural" isn't the worst, it at least has the biggest gap between actual and generally perceived quality. Plus, walk-off homerun, in the top on the ninth!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Gene Larkin, Buddy Biancalana, Mark Lemke, Brian Doyle. Any of those last three might be Rubio's middle infielder.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Exactly. The writers knowing that certain players are about to exhaust their eligibility might affect who they vote for, and when.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I'm curious what you mean by "Socratic scouting".

May 23, 2014 10:46 AM on Hunter Harvey
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Mpls Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins have offered Santana a three year deal.

Mar 11, 2014 5:31 PM on A New Challenger
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I loved the Charles Willeford reference!

Feb 12, 2014 4:22 PM on Reeling in Rodney
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Sam said: "In his career, Rivera held batters to a .262 OBP. In the postseason he held them to a .212 OBP. The odds of that happening by chance alone are something like one in 200. The odds of his BABIP being that low by chance alone is around one in 50. It can’t just be luck." I'm not sure I understand here. Is the claim that there is one chance in 200 that in a particular case a big regular season/post season differential would be due to luck, or is it that it is one in 200 that as many as one pitcher in history would have this result? If it is just 1/200 in each case then we should expect this to happen -- by chance -- once in a while. There is one chance in 256 that a coin will be flipped heads 8 times in a row, but the chance of flipping coins 8 times in a row at some point during the year is pretty high if you flip coins all day long.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

He was as good as Hall of Famer so-and-so (who was one of the worst mistakes the HOF made). "Tom Henke was as good as Bruce Sutter, so..."; "Jamie Moyer was as good as Waite Hoyt, so..."

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 5

I love the article title! Indeed.

Dec 14, 2013 8:42 AM on Omar Comin'
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Seems like Jon Miller is the only one who realizes that if you get thrown out at first, it isn't a base hit.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

And the Benny Prue of the story is actually Benny Proulx.

Oct 28, 2013 10:46 AM on Ellis Clary
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Great story! I need this book.

Oct 28, 2013 10:39 AM on Ellis Clary
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

"Stephen Drew made a slick play on Desmond Jennings’ grounder in the hole to save a pair of runs" Why does everyone in baseball say "save" when they mean "prevent"? Saving is the opposite of preventing. When you save something you still have it, like saving money or saving lives. Preventing is what stops something from happening. End of rant.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Seems Holiday should have been safe at home, even if he missed the base. The catcher can't block him without the ball. Safe on grounds of obstruction or whatever they call it.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

And Michael Young says "at the same time..." three times in quotation.

Jul 31, 2013 1:09 AM on July 22-28
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 6

Seems like Jesse Crain pitched in a lot of pressure situations when he was set-up guy for the Twins during their run of being a playoff team.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Seems like the reason stated at the outset of the article for guessing below .500 -- that the worst teams are farther below .500 than the best teams are above it -- is actually a reason to guess that the most common percentage, and the median record, is above .500. The best record won't cancel out the worst record, requiring a team at .506 or .517 to balance out the wins and losses.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I have a recollection of the Ozeroo being victimized twice in the same game by the Twins in the same way: on a pickoff attempt at first, the first baseman faked a throw back to the pitcher and then tagged Ozzie when he left the bad. Long time ago, so I'm not sure my memory is accurate.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Jim Eisenreich Also, Carl Pavano nearly died from his most recent injury.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Choosing the other door in Let's Make a Deal is not only superior in theory but also in practice.

Apr 24, 2013 10:31 AM on Bruce Rondon
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Mastroianni in CF as well.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

At the academic conferences I attend (philosophy), the way you're dressed would not make you stand out at all.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

If NC is part of the Nationals' local market, I wish they'd show some damn games here. I live in Greenville NC, in eastern NC, and there are no local broadcasts of Nationals or Orioles games at all, but both teams get blacked out on MLB, TBS, ESPN. (They stopped showing the O's here on Fox Sports South about a decade ago, and have never shown Washington.)

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, just because it is a figment of the kid's imagination that Malone played on the 75 pennant winners, doesn't mean that the 75 pennant win was in his imagination too. After all, he imagines Boston, and this doesn't make Boston itself imaginary. (or does it?) Fun article!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Good point about review calls where the players must decide how to run the bases based on the call made on the field. You should replace "arguing", as it appears twice in this article, with "disputing". Arguing is actually the opposite of disputing.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I was surprised by the description of Casey as coach too, so I looked it up. He was a dominant relief pitcher in 1942, but didn't pitch in 43-45, then came back in 46 as a dominant pitcher again. I would have assumed that military service explained his absence, but now I'm confused. Why was he a coach in 1943?

Aug 19, 2012 11:01 AM on At What Price Revolution
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I agree. I enjoyed Sutton when he was on the Superstation, and he fit in well with the excellent and thoughtful Pete Van Wieren. I hate to think what Hawk Harrelson says about the Chisox!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I love it that some BP fans are also fans of The Minutemen and Husker Du!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

"Madonna" is Madonna's real name, for what it's worth.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Greenengineer, is that 7pm on the west coast? Fine. If you mean 4pm in the west, no thanks.

 
John Collins
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Thanks, Bradford. I was a Twins fan in 1982, and got a chance to see first hand how good he was, but also what difficulty he was having. I've always felt bad that Minnesota and the Twins organization weren't more supportive of him at the time.

 
John Collins
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thanks, Bradley

 
John Collins
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Should I be surprised that Arcia was the Twins Futures rep, rather than Sano?

 
John Collins
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San Diego leads Seattle on beer?

 
John Collins
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Falu is the beneficiary (i.e. the one who benefitted). A benefactor is one who benefits someone else.

 
John Collins
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As a "mud duck" who remembers that shooting, and Twins fan, I found this article very edifying. Thanks, Ken.

 
John Collins
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Carew's MVP was in 1977, not 1978.

 
John Collins
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And taking that $750 EV bet might not maximize utility either. If someone can't afford to lose the $500 -- losing it would cost them their home or something -- then it would be irrational for them to take the bet.

 
John Collins
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Surprised Scott Erickson was on the list of low WARPS for opening day starters of defending champs. The year for which his WARP was so low, he won 20 games and had an ERA of 3.18 in over 200 innings.

Mar 31, 2012 10:02 AM on ...Is This Thing On?
 
John Collins
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They added Willingham too.

 
John Collins
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I went to a Bulls game last year and I was pleased to see that the city doesn't try to milk every last dollar from patrons. We were allowed to park for free on a road which normally doesn't permit parking. Anyway, it was a good experience.

 
John Collins
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The problem, as Bill James showed, is that you can do this for any good player with a long career: Pinson, Oliva, Reuschel, etc.

Feb 12, 2012 4:44 PM on The Weakest Of The Weak
 
John Collins
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Thanks

 
John Collins
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Jay, I don't really see why you think Whitaker and Grich being "one and done" is an injustice, or a hosing, when by your own system, those guys are below the threshold. If everyone who had a vote followed your recommendation, an injustice would result? (Unless I misunderstood, and because of doubts over FRAA, you think they should be in.)

 
John Collins
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I'd love to hear the story behind EJ wanting to be called Count Fosco. That's the old, fat, but very courtly villain of Wilkie Collins' gothic mystery classic, The Woman in White.

 
John Collins
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And Kubel's AAV is not $15M. I think that's the total over 2 years.

Jan 13, 2012 7:49 PM on Off-Brand Bargains
 
John Collins
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The reports from MN is that Willingham will be the RF, not the LF, with Revere in left. Also, they haven't ruled out bringing back Cuddyer, who apparently hasn't gotten the kind of offer he wanted. Then Willingham would play left, with Revere the 4th OF.

Dec 15, 2011 3:45 PM on In with the New
 
John Collins
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Braun is not the type stereotypically to use steroids? What is the steroids stereotype? Not trying to be snarky -- had no idea there was one. I thought it might be sluggers, and Braun is a slugger. Or is the stereotype that Latin American players predominate among the violators?

Dec 12, 2011 4:50 PM on Monday, December 12
 
John Collins
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Jay, I wonder if you would agree that the relatively small number of enshrined 3B boosts at all the cases for Santo and Boyer. For instance, you say that Boyer outdoes 4 of the 11 enshrined 3B -- that places him 8th, which would be comfortably above the average, if a proportional number of 3B had been selected for the hall. Or do you think the low number of enshrined 3B reflects a relatively weak group of players at that position?

 
John Collins
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Because the results often have much to do with luck or the skills/work of others, and this is about the skills/work of the pitcher in question. Not so absurd.

Nov 21, 2011 11:58 AM on Voting Outrage
 
John Collins
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The problem I have with Derek's analysis is that he seems to think it is rational for any particular voter to pick Kershaw, but not for most of them to do. Who says Kershaw's landslide victory reflects a belief on the voter's part that he is *much* better? It reflects a belief of most of the voters that he is at least a little better. If everyone were fully rational, *every* vote would be unanimous, as they would all reach the same conclusion about candidates who might be only thinly separated.

Nov 21, 2011 7:16 AM on Voting Outrage
 
John Collins
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That worked! And now I can +1 as well. Thanks.

 
John Collins
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I can't reply to richardkr34, for some reason, but I follow the Twins closely and have never heard such a thing. What surprises me about this move is that the Twins *never* fire anyone at the top. The last manager they fired was Ray Miller in 1986, and I can't remember the last GM they fired. They kept the guys they liked even through long fallow periods.

 
John Collins
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John Collins
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Any expectations for the PTBNL? I'm guessing it won't be anyone too valuable.

Aug 15, 2011 1:21 PM on Delmon Dealt UPDATED
 
John Collins
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But your comment was very helpful.

Aug 10, 2011 9:52 PM on Destination Delusion
 
John Collins
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Just want to say how great it is that so many BP writers have come together to give us pretty comprehensive TA articles, so quickly.

Jul 31, 2011 6:21 PM on Texas Gunslingers
 
John Collins
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Can anyone explain the Jered Weaver chart? One line is for Jered, and so is the other one. Is this about a difference in how people are searching for Jered Weaver, by name vs. by description (Jeff's bro)? Or is that a typo?

 
John Collins
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Pat Folz (reply function not working): point taken, but I don't think your example points out so much the uncertainty of whose fame will endure as it does the stunning ignorance of your friends. The Doors' popularity has been unusually enduring and unflagging.

 
John Collins
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Grievance on what grounds?

 
John Collins
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Non-prospects, for sure. Teams in Milwaukee's situation really had the Mets over a barrel; while K-rod is mildly useful to a team like the Brewers, he was an enormous millstone to the Mets, since they likely had to let him keep closing or risk a grievance. I think the PTNBL are just a fig leaf, so it isn't a naked giveaway.

 
John Collins
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And they'd have had to pay that $5M anyway, as his salary the rest of the year. So it is precisely a savings of $14M.

 
John Collins
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Mrdannyg: the $14M is the diff between the 17.5 option and the 3.5 buyout, for next year. So they are giving Milwaukee $5M, to avoid paying the 14. Cost to Milwaukee: the 3.5 buyout, plus 2 ptnbl. Not bad for a premiere set-up guy, just for the half-season where he might be the difference in a close race.

 
John Collins
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GREAT COLUMN, John. As to moving Mauer to 1B: at least he's a special player at catcher when healthy. What would he be at first? Bruce Bochte? Sean Casey, if we're lucky?

Jul 06, 2011 6:54 PM on The Buck Stops...Where?
 
John Collins
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Shocked that Twins catcher isn't on the list. The Mauer replacements were ciphers, and Mauer himself has been awful so far.

Jul 06, 2011 6:44 PM on The Underachievers
 
John Collins
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Denard Span is on the DL with a concussion; my guess is that Cuddyer is the Twins rep.

Jul 02, 2011 8:36 PM on Perrotto's Picks
 
John Collins
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Seconded! They were the first band I ever saw in concert.

 
John Collins
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Agreed. Didn't Bill James convincingly dispense with this "it's for the guy with the best first half" view almost 30 years ago? One year, people were saying that it was an injustice that George Brett was elected instead of...Toby Harrah. Of course, though Harrah might have been 5% better through June 15, Brett was obviously the superior ballplayer, and it is absurd to think the All-Star Game would have been better served by having Harrah in his stead.

Jul 02, 2011 7:31 PM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
John Collins
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The Twins have also played 13 more road than home games, so balancing that out ought to help them a bit going forward.

Jun 24, 2011 2:24 PM on Minnesota Miscasts
 
John Collins
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Is second base really called "the cornerstone"? I've never heard that. A factor in Iwamura's injury at 2b might be not just his inexperience at the position, but the fact that Japanese players don't do aggressive take-out slides at second. This is cited as the explanation for Nishioka's immediate injury. Shouldn't Nakamura's per-WARP cost be infinite, not a negative number? They payed him money and got zero WARP, after all. For the figure to be negative, I think the team would have to be receiving money from him, for each WARP he produces.

 
John Collins
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Make that 9 games out, after Liriano dominated much more than he did in his no-no.

Jun 12, 2011 1:28 PM on Anatomy of a Collapse
 
John Collins
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On the other hand... The Twins are now 10 out, there are no good teams in the Central, the Twins can expect to have a significantly better team within a month as they get healthier, and they've played almost 20 more road than home games so far. I'd say that their real playoff chance is quite a bit better than 2%. (Full disclosure: ardent Twins fan)

Jun 12, 2011 9:27 AM on Anatomy of a Collapse
 
John Collins
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You're really living up to the CK standars here, Ben, both with the arcane references (Martin Guerre, Japanese fan videos, Thomas Hobbes) and the keen insights. Thanks.

May 28, 2011 8:14 PM on Quad-A Saves the Day?
 
John Collins
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In addition to what plincoln said, I'd note that getting Mauer back is not the only way the Twins could be expected to improve in the near term. Delmon Young, Nishioka and Thome have all been injured for much or most of the year so far, Morneau is apparently still recovering from his concussion, and Nathan is still getting back into form after TJ. If most of those players are restored to 2009-10 form, the Twins are not much different than the team that won 90+ games last year.

May 23, 2011 12:28 PM on
 
John Collins
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Alan Trammel's wankstain?

May 17, 2011 10:23 PM on How to Read a Box Score
 
John Collins
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Thanks for this list, but I'm not sure I understand it completely. Which of these are double unique, and which are just single? Nathan Adcock is on the list, and of course there was a Joe Adcock. I'd be surprised if there weren't a few other Nathans as well.

 
John Collins
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David Foster Wallaces "Brief Interviews with Hideous Men" has the same thing, interviews with the questions omitted.

May 12, 2011 7:21 PM on Ben Revere
 
John Collins
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"Ghostface Kila". I love you guys.

 
John Collins
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The baseball fan in me enjoyed the article, and the Ramones fan in me loved the title. Good one, Jay.

 
John Collins
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But what is even geekier than Pi Day is to call it Half Tau Day: http://halftauday.com/ It is argued that pi's mathematical significance is exhausted by its being half the value of tau. I guess tau day would be June 28.

Mar 15, 2011 7:56 AM on Happy Pi (π) Day!
 
John Collins
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Twins pitcher W-L record comes to 83-59. 20 losses are missing.

Mar 04, 2011 8:37 AM on September 14-20
 
John Collins
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83 wins and 62 losses, no less.

Mar 04, 2011 8:33 AM on October 20-November 2
 
John Collins
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And what is "the sweet science"?

Mar 01, 2011 10:51 AM on Coco Crisp
 
John Collins
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The WARPs listed for some part-time players seem to be off by a factor of ten or more. Viciedo of the Chisox is listed as -2.2 WARP, despite only 108 plate appearances, making him -11 or -13 WARP over a full season, while putting up Mike Jacobs-ish numbers. Ben Revere's WARP seems to be similarly off. Don't know what happened there or if it affected team PECOTA projections.

 
John Collins
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The WARPS for reserves seem screwed up. Ben Revere, in 188 plate appearances, rates 1 win below replacement. He's over replacement on his player card on even his 10th percentile projection. But on the team page, extrapolated to full-time playing, he'd rate 3 wins below replacement. Same problem with Viciedo on the Chisox. Looks like some glitch here.

Feb 17, 2011 12:20 PM on September 14-20
 
John Collins
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Viciedo is listed at 2.2 wins below replacement, despite only getting 108 plate appearances, while putting up what looks like replacement-level, Mike Jacobs-type numbers. The 2.2 would mean he'd be about 11-13 wins below replacement over a full season. That looks like a mistake.

 
John Collins
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Wow. Do you think a guy who weighs that much at 17 has any chance to stick at third for long (solid defensive skills notwithstanding)?

 
John Collins
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Kevin, you said Sano is 30 lbs over his listed weight. You mean 30 over the 195 that you listed, or is 195 the corrected figure? Thanks.

 
John Collins
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In fact, it was the most prominent story on yahoo.com, about a minute ago.

 
John Collins
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Love the quotations. They were illuminating, and your efforts in picking good ones are appreciated.

 
John Collins
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Avilaird and Heloise -- that was perhaps the highlight of my day.

 
John Collins
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This was fun, but for a second there I thought we had a *new* Huckabay column. [sigh]

Feb 03, 2011 5:26 AM on Baseball's Y2K1 Bugs
 
John Collins
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Cool. I love these interviews with the old-timers. And it's interesting to hear Mauch was a red-ass as a player.

 
John Collins
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I like the Voltaire quotes. You could make this a habit, with quotations from Twain, Hume, Socrates, etc.

Jan 27, 2011 9:50 AM on I Want Wandy
 
John Collins
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"Lucky Number" Blevins -- you should write for Chris Berman, CK. That was great. Do you think Kouzmanoff and Conor Jackson are worth it for Oakland at those salaries? Both seem like they have played like bench players but are being compensated like solid regulars.

Jan 21, 2011 9:59 AM on Junior Circuit Jumble
 
John Collins
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CK, I loved "Humber Humber", but I believe Humber's first name is Phillip, not Jon. Any thoughts on the Twins keeping Capps for over $7M, rather than keeping a couple other set-up men (or something else)?

Jan 19, 2011 8:42 AM on Arbitration Avoidance
 
John Collins
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David, this was a fine interview. Thanks.

Jan 12, 2011 8:17 AM on Don Mincher, Part II
 
John Collins
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CK, can you explain the chart in this article? How did Beltre have 3800+ chances? That seems too high by a factor of more than 10; or do I not understand what fielding chances are?

Jan 08, 2011 6:38 PM on Red Sox Regnant?
 
John Collins
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Why do people have this idea that the Twins DH spot is open? Cuddyer presumably will go back to manning RF more or less full time, Morneau will be back at first, and Kubel the principal DH. The opening for Thome to get 50% playing time last year was largely created by Morneau's absence. Or do you guys know something I don't (about Morneau's recovery or whatever)?

Jan 07, 2011 9:21 PM on Signing Adrian Beltre
 
John Collins
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I second bpars3's interest in the 80s book.

 
John Collins
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"He's more past-tense than KPAST." That made me grin.

Dec 08, 2010 8:11 PM on First-Base Boppery
 
John Collins
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John Collins
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Jay, given that Banks, Jenkins and Williams are all in the Hall, why do you say that the voters hold the 1969 collapse against Santo? Aren't Banks, Jenkins and Williams evidence that the voters aren't doing this?

 
John Collins
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Thanks. He looks like he might be worth it then, if as rumored they can get for around $3MM per annum.

Dec 02, 2010 12:04 PM on Tsuyoshi Nishioka
 
John Collins
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The Twins get the $5.3M back if they don't sign him. Jesse, do you guys have any translation from Japanese ball to the majors? That would be very helpful here. I'll be sort of sad not to see Alexi Casilla get another shot at an everyday job, though.

Nov 30, 2010 8:44 PM on Tsuyoshi Nishioka
 
John Collins
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Not GG defense either by FanGraphs' reckoning, or by BP's fielding metric. I expected it too, but the numbers weren't there.

 
John Collins
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I gotta go with Lefko on this, re: value. A $100 bill is more valuable than a $20 bill, even if the hundred has been misplaced and its value isn't being appropriately accessed. Kiner got screwed. Let's not take Rickey's clever ways of exploiting his workers as Confucian aphorisms.

 
John Collins
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How were you censored? I read your remark, and I guess most people read what is "hidden" by negative remarks. What happened is that you were chided for complaining that trivia was trivial.

 
John Collins
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Saying Felix is to CC as Miggy is to Hamilton is silly. Hamilton had a higher VORP and was a better defensive player. A strong -- decisive? -- case can be made for Hamilton as MVP that doesn't involve his personal redemption, the Rangers' division title, or anything like that. The "playing great" vs "value to his team" angle is a red herring too. Hamilton played better too.

 
John Collins
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Brandon Lyon was exactly who came to mind when I heard the years and money for the Benoit contract. wow

 
John Collins
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Ken, I'm guessing that you meant that somewhere *Calvin* Griffith is smacking his head in disbelief. Calvin was the guy who brought the Twins to MN, and who was famously penurious in all matters regarding the Twins. So would it be safe to say that your view is that there is really nothing wrong with the Twins, and that, with some minor changes, essentially the same quality team should be sent back out there, and that the playoff failures are just what sometimes happens to excellent teams, and no reason to think a dramatic change is in order?

Nov 15, 2010 10:36 AM on Minnesota Twins
 
John Collins
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Full results were *not* included with the AL results.

Nov 10, 2010 7:50 AM on National League
 
John Collins
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Didn't the voting conclude well before Posey got the WS ring?

Nov 09, 2010 10:09 PM on National League
 
John Collins
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I second Diana's request. We've always gotten to see a full ballot before.

Nov 09, 2010 5:56 AM on National League
 
John Collins
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Jeff, don't you think JJ Hardy would make at least that much on the open market, given the dearth of quality SS on the market this year? I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins keep him, for that reason, and use Casilla at 2B. And you you think the Twins will/should offer arb to Capps? Seems a lot for a non-elite closer who might just be a set-up guy.

 
John Collins
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I'm always impressed at how well Christina takes criticism. Some other BP writers respond to it more churlishly -- often with justification -- but you never see that with CK.

Oct 31, 2010 4:38 PM on Game Three Report
 
John Collins
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No, this is flatly contradicted by a closer reading of what the BPers doing post-game analysis have actually written.

Oct 31, 2010 9:02 AM on Game Three Report
 
John Collins
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Thanks, these were great. I have some trouble grasping the perspective of the Yankee fan, but the accounts from the Yankee fans above helped, and Steven's piece was great.

Oct 27, 2010 12:49 PM on Fall Classic Memories
 
John Collins
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David, this is great -- my favorite type of player to see interviewed.

 
John Collins
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Aka the Ralph Houk Memorial Award

Oct 13, 2010 12:01 PM on The Meaningless Awards
 
John Collins
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Agreed, and it isn't like the Twins have a strong internal candidate to replace him, if the reports that they plan to let Hudson go and put Casilla at 2B are correct.

Oct 13, 2010 8:20 AM on Getting the Boot?
 
John Collins
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He's just picking it up from a Star Tribune columnist, who suggested that the Twins need to pick up a power arm (Sanchez, Greinke) and might get one by packaging Delmon and either Slowey or a prospect.

Oct 11, 2010 9:13 PM on Minnesota Twins
 
John Collins
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Madison Bumgarner isn't on the NL ROY list. Isn't he still a rookie? He is listed on BP's top rookie vorp's, and he pitched only 10 innings in 2009.

 
John Collins
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Point taken, Jay, but in defense of SC, the importance of the Twins missing their best hitter was omitted from "the real take-home", indicating that you didn't think that was so important after all, it would seem. I'm sure SC read those 60 words but was puzzled that they didn't make it into your real take-home.

 
John Collins
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Well, Chapman's pitch didn't actually scrape Utley. It was another phantom HBP, and another case of blown calls playing too big a role in the determining the outcome of the games.

Oct 09, 2010 11:11 AM on LDS Day Three Roundup
 
John Collins
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I might be able to be convinced that Rose should be in the HOF, but this column was awful. How did this get past BP editors?

Sep 14, 2010 9:59 PM on Reconsidering Pete Rose
 
John Collins
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No Richie, it's not the guy's thesis that is horrible. It's that he argued for it in such an awful way. Give us a decent argument for the conclusion and you won't see such vitriol. This column is just way below the standards established by BP.

Sep 14, 2010 9:54 PM on Reconsidering Pete Rose
 
John Collins
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Geez Richie, many people on this site have defended Pete Rose and advocated for his eligibility for the HOF. What people are most irritated about here is that this article is full of ad hominem attacks and material irrelevant to what penalty Rose deserves.

Sep 14, 2010 9:50 PM on Reconsidering Pete Rose
 
John Collins
(110)
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Yeah, the first example in the article you mentioned is a group of people guessing the weight of an ox. Exact same point as the jellybean example. The idea that conventional wisdom is right because it is conventional is the logical fallacy known as argumentum ad populum (aka 20 million Justin Bieber fans can't be wrong). But did you notice that Surowiecki gave 4 conditions that need to be met for collective beliefs to be "wisdom". One of them is that the beliefs were formed independently, for the most part. That's hardly the case in your example of collective wisdom (attendance rate spike due to wildcard). Quit while you're behind.

Sep 14, 2010 9:34 PM on Yankees/Rays
 
John Collins
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Sorry, that should be JerryKenny, BP subscriber, and not Jerry Kenney, old Yanks 3B.

Sep 14, 2010 1:14 PM on Yankees/Rays
 
John Collins
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Wisdom of the crowd is *not* conventional wisdom. Wisdom of the crowd is the phenomenon where nobody knows the right answer (as to, say, how many jellybeans are in the jar), but overestimations by some are balanced by underestimations by others, and the average of answers is right. It really has *nothing* to do with conventional wisdom. As to conventional wisdom, arrogance is not the only reason to doubt it. The abundant history of conventional wisdom being false is evidence of the unreliability of such wisdom. Jerry Kenney gives an example of this (flat earth). It would be easy to come up scads of others.

Sep 14, 2010 1:12 PM on Yankees/Rays
 
John Collins
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Yes, Cory, I think Joe Mauer's candidacy will be hurt by the phenomenon this year. A gold glove catcher hitting .325 on a division winner might otherwise be an MVP candidate, but he's perceived as something of a disappointment this year.

Sep 14, 2010 11:21 AM on JUMP Again
 
John Collins
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I think doing this for the MVP is even more difficult than doing it for the HOF, because the MVP voters often seem to need a "narrative" that won't show up in the stats. For instance, Chisox announcers Hawk and Stoney at one point were talking up Delmon Young as a strong MVP candidate. Even more absurd, MN voters on-line picked Cuddyer as the team MVP. (He filled in for Morneau, played every inning at 1B, helping to allow Thome into the lineup.) Also, are players in Coors getting the same penalty that they did in the 90s? Dante Bichette's hitting line was a joke, and it seemed most people kind of knew it. But things are different in Coors now, and you don't see people disparage Rockies numbers in the same way.

Sep 14, 2010 6:40 AM on JUMP Again
 
John Collins
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It's on the stats page.

 
John Collins
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Steven, how did you end up choosing Donnie Moore? Mike Marshall had 3 Mauch seasons wih higher WARPs, and Doug Corbett one (in 1980, where Mauch resigned in August). Is it a WXRL lead? I can't find that stat on player cards.

 
John Collins
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Maybe. Valencia is hitting awfully well (small sample) and they seem to be happy with his fielding. Plus Cuddyer can play some 3rd when Morneau comes back (with Kubel in RF).

Jul 30, 2010 11:48 AM on Texas Fold 'Em
 
John Collins
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CK, have you read the Dan Epstein book on 1970s baseball? I saw it at the store and I'm trying to decide whether to get it.

 
John Collins
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That seems irrelevant. So the league is better today than it was 50 years ago. Accepted for sake of argument. My point is that the greater *size* of the league doesn't make it harder to get a TC because the worse half of the league isn't in competition for the crown anyhow.

Jul 26, 2010 10:17 AM on King Without a Crown
 
John Collins
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Ira, I don't think it follows from the fact that there are now twice as many players as there were in the 1950s that it is half as likely now to have a TC winner, because the worse half of MLB players are much less likely to win it than the better half. Expanding the slate of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 didn't make it half as likely for Avatar to win. Expanding the nominees to 100 wouldn't have done so, either.

Jul 25, 2010 1:03 AM on King Without a Crown
 
John Collins
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Why in the *world* would SD trade Latos for a DH? These are crazy scenarios.

 
John Collins
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Comment rating: 2

So the Twins would increase their chance of making the playoffs as much as any AL team by adding a 4.5 player, but they should stand pat? I think this analysis underrates the value of making the playoffs (while coming up short of a championship). And the non-PECOTA version of the playoff odds has MN already at +30% chance of the playoffs... While I quibble with the conclusion re: the Twins, this article is a nice idea and nicely done.

Jul 23, 2010 12:50 AM on Buyers and Sellers
 
John Collins
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I'm surprised that there have been so few rotation regulars much below replacement level, when there are many regular position players who sink to that level each year. I wonder why that is, and I also wonder if, were the cutoff to be lowered to 25 starts, the numbers would get really ugly.

Jul 21, 2010 2:58 PM on ALtruisms
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Agree with Mangey re: positivism; the criterion of meaningfulness is verifiability in principle, not actual verification. The connection to Two Dogmas seems weak. Quine said that the analytic/synthetic distinction (truth of reason, knowable by their meanings alone, independent of sense experience, versus those knowable on the basis of particular experiences) was untenable. *Anything* can be rejected on the basis of sense experience, and because of meaning and evidence holism, there is no such thing as *the* sense experience that would confirm or disconfirm any particular claim. Claims face the tribunal of sense experience not individually, but collectively. That said, I enjoyed the article, and the point is well taken, re: sabredogma.

 
John Collins
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Comment rating: 0

Haven't had a chance to read this yet, but as *another* philosopher -- hey Mangey -- I'm delighted to see the Quine reference!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks

May 11, 2010 2:50 PM on Senior Shuffling
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

CK, I'm having trouble parsing this phrase: "although the weirdness of his getting four of five intentional walks—and of Brad Mills' five total issued on the year" about Chris Snyder. Snyder got 4 IBB out of what 5? His BB on the year? D-Back IBB? Sorry if I'm being dense. And let me say thanks for the great TA work since TA has become a regular blog item.

May 11, 2010 1:42 PM on Senior Shuffling
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Wow, is that the Moe Hill who was a legendary slugger in the Midwest League at Wisconsin Rapids in the Twins organization? Nice to see him still in pro ball.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

OK, I see from later comments he does think tazing is electrocution. Apologies.

May 05, 2010 1:24 PM on Excessive Force
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

tommybones wasn't saying that tasering is electrocution. He was merely point out the absurdity of the claim that when someone breaks the rules they forfeit all their rights, including the right not be electrocuted for a petty crime.

May 05, 2010 1:21 PM on Excessive Force
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks

May 03, 2010 2:24 PM on Against the Fence
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

In the comments on the Virgil Trucks bio, someone asked about the mascot on the Trucks St Louis Browns baseball card. It looks like a devil or a very red-faced boy. Anyone know what it is supposed to be?

May 03, 2010 10:46 AM on Against the Fence
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Loved the link to the Stalin touch-ups!

Apr 23, 2010 8:52 PM on National League Roundup
 
John Collins
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Especially Tyner as DH.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Indian and Chisox actual records are switched.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I noticed that for quite a few players, the list of comparables is partly superimposed over the comments from past issues of the book -- makes it hard to read. Wow, though, lotsa good stuff here.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

David, this was great. I'd enjoy seeing more like this, where we can compare and contrast the answers two people give to the same set of questions.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I noticed that too -- about the buried blog entries. Here's how to find them: click on the big word "blog", not the archives, and then scroll down to the bottom of the page and hit "previous entries". You'll have to do this for three or four pages, but then you'll get back to March 12.

Mar 17, 2010 3:09 PM on Depth Chart/PFM Update
 
John Collins
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Comment rating: 0

I'm surprised there aren't more comments after a week -- this is one of the most fascinating baseball interviews I've read. You don't see people name names this way too often. The stuff about Clemens and Boggs is very interesting.

Mar 16, 2010 2:25 PM on Chaz Scoggins
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I don't think I understand Razz. How can a straight be the lowest hand? Wouldn't it be high card 7?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

And you think it ought to be otherwise? As a rule, I'd say most of the top BA's are from players having, by their own standards, good years, and that some regression is expected.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Wouldn't be surprised to see Jesse Crain get a shot at closer, either. He was much sharper last year after a bad start. And maybe even Liriano.

Mar 09, 2010 7:43 PM on Replacing Nathan
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Because your point would be mistaken even if it were about predictions, which it really was.

Feb 28, 2010 7:31 AM on Sweet Relief
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Great interview. Good questions and outstanding answers.

Feb 27, 2010 12:18 PM on June 13-17, 2002
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 5

Generally, teams that win 95+ or lose 100+ are those that do better or worse than reasonable people would project them to. So this is not a flaw in the system. It's the same issue Bill James raised 20 years ago when his projections included no batting average higher than about .320. But he predicted that the batting title would go to someone who exceeded their projected BA.

Feb 27, 2010 12:00 PM on Sweet Relief
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Not really. That's too simplistic a thesis about how semantics works.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks, this was great, especially the Gibson and Cash stories. I remember Goryl from his tenure managing the Twins. He didn't have much to work with, as this was the Twins after they'd lost a lot of good free agents, but before we brought up all the young players who'd go on to win the Series in 1987. I'm glad to hear he's still in baseball.

Feb 05, 2010 1:12 PM on Johnny Goryl
 
John Collins
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I think the reference to what is on the Canadian nickel is what vertumnus had in mind.

Feb 01, 2010 4:05 PM on Signing and Selling
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Because there are just about an infinite number of ways for there to be something, but only one way for there to be nothing, so the odds favor there being something.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes! What a great show.

Jan 23, 2010 3:30 PM on January 11-17
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Answered in the initial post: yes.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I hate to be dense about the best comment of the year, but I don't get it. What's the Cardinals reference about?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Busted!

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

I can't answer your question about whether the business model is viable, but I signed up for your newsletter way back when, and I'd do it again (for $5 or $10 or $20).

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Well, I guess I finally have a reason to check out this Twitter thing.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Reversed just for Dbacks and Indians, perhaps. Indians actually did not have a positive differential.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

On a more mundane note, I think the actual and predicted column in the first chart are switched.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

I have nothing to say that wasn't already said by one of the earlier posters, but I want to say it anyway: I will miss you on BP, Joe, and I look forward to seeing what you write elsewhere.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Minnesota isn't already doing this? Why the swipe at the Twins?

Dec 23, 2009 1:17 PM on May 13-19
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

Soriano accepted arbitration.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Kevin, I hope you're right about Delmon (and Casilla). What worries me is that although he hit .300 with 9 HR in his last 187 at bats, he only had 5 walks. So is it confirmed that Carlos Gutierrez will be going back to the pen, or is that just what a lot of people think *should* happen? Thanks.

Dec 07, 2009 10:00 AM on Twins Top 11 Prospects
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

No, he was disagreeing about the contract.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Loved the article, both for the content and the style. This sentence, however, has a few too many temporal terms: "Last year he pitched well in a stretch of games during and after a demotion to Triple-A, but was terrible before and after for the White Sox before a stretch spin in the Rockies' pen." Confusing.

Nov 28, 2009 4:45 PM on To Hit the Jackpot
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Espn says it here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4671110

Nov 19, 2009 12:34 PM on NL Cy Young
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 4

Not to mention Bobby Crosby

Nov 16, 2009 1:19 PM on Awards Season
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 4

I think akw and greensox are missing Joe's point. It's not that we should revile Junior for all that stuff. The point is that we don't do so, but if it were A-Rod, we would do so, employing both a stupid measure of greatness and a double-standard.

Nov 14, 2009 9:55 AM on Let's Make a Deal!
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Ah, I understand now. Thanks.

Nov 11, 2009 1:49 PM on AL Results and Wrap-Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -2

Dr. Dave, So Anderson was 'better' than Porcello but Porcello was better than Anderson? I'm not sure I understand your use of inverted commas.

Nov 11, 2009 12:41 PM on AL Results and Wrap-Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

So, what is the argument for Teixeira being ahead of Zobrist? Zobrist was a better hitter and is a middle infielder. I'd hazard a guess of a thirty run gap between them. I'd say the same for Longoria. I'm not a Rays fan, but I think at least two Rays (and maybe Bartlett too) should have placed higher.

Nov 11, 2009 12:39 PM on AL Results and Wrap-Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -2

Not that I attribute this to NY bias, I hasten to add. I didn't have Rick Porcello in the top three rookies, but I don't think a Detroit prejudice was at work -- just an honest difference of opinion.

Nov 11, 2009 10:56 AM on AL Results and Wrap-Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -4

Well, Teixeira at #3 is a joke. A-Rod shouldn't have been so high on the list, either. I didn't have either in the top ten.

Nov 11, 2009 9:27 AM on AL Results and Wrap-Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Thanks, Joe, for the volumes of writing this post-season. Your columns are the ones I most look forward to.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 4

Slow-footed wouldn't make any sense in the context. I took it as slow in the sense of "not very bright". Have we gotten to the point where it is beyond the pale even to describe someone as not very bright?

Oct 21, 2009 2:49 PM on The Horror
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

What were Hidalgo's off the field issues? Anyone know?

Oct 16, 2009 11:35 AM on October 15
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Wow, I'd always thought that the Wilmington team in the Carolina league was in Wilmington NC (and I live in NC!). How odd.

Oct 16, 2009 11:33 AM on October 16
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks

Oct 13, 2009 12:52 PM on April 1, 2002
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Jones has been added now, though not Smith.

Oct 13, 2009 11:17 AM on April 1, 2002
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

So why are Seth Smith and Garrett Jones not on the NL Rookie list, although they DO show up on the list of top VORPs for rookies?

Oct 13, 2009 11:11 AM on April 1, 2002
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Seconded

Oct 05, 2009 9:34 AM on Do or Die
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

And ironically several years ago when the Twins and Detroit both really were good, and the Twins dramatically overtook them on the last day of the season, it was pretty much meaningless since both teams were going to the playoffs anyway.

Oct 04, 2009 1:18 PM on Do or Die
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Buehrle, I'd have thought.

Oct 04, 2009 1:16 PM on Do or Die
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

And in (further) fairness to Pavano, his "quik ERA" is closer to 4 and is much better than his actual ERA (as mentioned on this site by a BP writer, though I don't remember which one).

Sep 30, 2009 11:04 AM on Selection Bias
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 6

Ironic remark, given what I've heard about Mark Grace.

Sep 21, 2009 1:14 PM on Bradleygate?
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

I'll bet that it will eventually emerge that there is more to Bradley's misconduct than the interview. Agreed that the punishment seems excessive, but I think we should expect more behind-the-scenes insubordination will turn out to be involved. It's certainly been building. (But who knows?) Also, I assume this is a PAID suspension. They don't want him around anymore, but surely they can't justify taking a million dollars of salary away for that interview. Can the union file a grievance over a PAID suspension (assuming there were no incentive clauses for playing time)?

Sep 21, 2009 1:14 PM on Bradleygate?
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

jseely being proof positive

Sep 11, 2009 11:15 AM on Throw Hard or Go Home
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Isn't it indefensible to criticize a trade when you don't even know who the Rays are getting in return yet? Sean Rodriguez was later sent to the Rays.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I think getting Rodriguez makes this a very good deal for the Rays.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Fair enough. Thanks

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

But -- as I forgot to say -- point taken about this all being global and holistic, and that this sort of adjustment can push us farther from what we want (as with the Soto result).

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Well, I knew you were trying to project who is likely to win, not who deserves to win, so I wasn't making that mistake. So let's take Piazza: he finished 2nd in the voting twice (1996-97), third once (2000), and fourth once (1995). So that's why I was puzzled when you defended the lack of a positional adjustment for catcher by saying that having one would have boosted Piazza into the top three several times. Since he was actually voted into the top three several times, you would *want* your system to project this. (Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant?) I guess I did misunderstand you to be saying that your system says that Mauer is currently projected to come in 15th or so in voting. So the idea is whether you're 15th or 50th in points, if you're well outside the top three, you have almost no chance? OK. When I said the system seems to badly miss on Mauer I wasn't talking about 2006, when of course it correctly predicted that he wouldn't win. I meant that it looks way off for 2009, since the idea that Mauer has little chance in 2009 seems incredible. Maybe time will prove you right, but it's hard for me to believe that. Especially since the lack of the catcher positional adjustment is so curiously defended.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Well, if Mauer finishes 15th in the voting, that will be a striking validation for your system. I don't think that is going to happen, though. As it now stands, there is *no* positional adjustment for catcher (only the plus for middle IF and the minus for DH)? I'm still not seeing why the boost for catchers messes things up. It would boost Piazza into the top 3 several times? Shouldn't Piazza *be* in the top 3 several times? It seems like he was a perennial MVP candidate if not a perennial MVP. And it's not like it isn't messed up now without that adjustment, given the absured miss on Mauer and the bad miss on Pudge. I certainly appreciate the effort, though. I suspect, as you suggested, that this is a bit quixotic. Good narratives drive the vote, and the statistical case is cobbled together later to verify whatever conclusion they'd already reached.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I assumed WP Mulligan was making a joke, spoofing the cranks who are always alleging BP bias against their teams.

Aug 27, 2009 10:26 AM on Don't Panic
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

And isn't Kevin Goldstein the world's leading Neftali Feliz fan?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

No, there really isn't any bias in voting against midwestern teams, or in favor of coast teams. Look at Morneau's victory over Jeter, Juan Gone over A-Rod and many others.

Aug 25, 2009 12:37 PM on AL Awards Quandary
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -2

Have you ever noticed how politicians that espouse family values usually turn out to be philanderers and closeted gays? Along those same lines, I notice that sbirnish77 makes it his mission to decry the bias and prejudice that he sees all over BP, usually from Joe Sheehan but now from Eighteen and sometimes from others. If he thinks everyone who disagrees with him is guilty of bias or prejudice, he's probably not the most objective observer.

Aug 24, 2009 3:43 PM on AL Awards Quandary
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 6

But even if they don't: Morneau's pct of runners on base driven in: 17.8 Mauer's pct: 21.6 (best in majors)

Aug 21, 2009 5:55 PM on Patchwork
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

OK, I'll bite: which BP staffer goes by "speedchaser9"?

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

To say that Mauer's MVP chances are "doomed" seems like a silly overstatement. How often is it that the guy who is the *obviously* best candidate, both by sabremetric and mainstream evaluation, plays on a losing team? Sure, playing on a winning team gives a guy a boost, but if Mauer ends up with a .370 avg and 30+ homers, he wins in a walk.

Aug 21, 2009 3:51 PM on Patchwork
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Oh for Christ's sake

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

It's so nice to hear the voice of reason, G and B.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

I think you're missing the point. Joe means that when the issue is "whether, and for how much, Strasburg should sign" then what Zimmerman et al think doesn't matter. Joe is not offering an alternative answer to the question from what Zimmerman et al have said; he's saying it should be up to Zimmerman (and the Nationals of course).

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, the rules prevent that. Bonuses can only be for things like innings, games, starts, and not for *quality* of performance.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Terrific stuff!

Aug 16, 2009 4:57 PM on Spring Notes
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I wonder if the drop in shortstops (as a percentage of the draft) is in part due to the much larger pitching staffs today. The 9 man staff of the 1960s is now 12 or 13 men. I wonder if the drop in shortstops would look as dramatic if we just looked at position players.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Aren't the Twins kind of using him right now?

Aug 11, 2009 6:39 PM on Drama Moves
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Richard, don't feed the trolls. I know, hard to resist.

Aug 11, 2009 6:23 PM on Rangers vs. Angels
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks

Aug 11, 2009 3:37 PM on Twin City Triplets
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Ken, thanks for a fine article on my favorite team. I don't quite understand the stats you list for the Twins lineup, though. Where are these numbers from? The stats are all way off, unless these are translated numbers or something like that. What am I missing? Also, it is Tony Oliva, not "Olivo".

Aug 10, 2009 2:52 PM on Twin City Triplets
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Sbirnish: a language in which every sentence expresses peevish sneer.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 3

Everyone reads the "hidden" comments, don't they?

Jul 31, 2009 1:10 PM on Review and Reset
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 10

You're the third commenter to make this tired joke. Give it a rest go back to posting on the Phillies fan site.

Jul 30, 2009 3:25 PM on Review and Reset
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

more pissy whining from sbirnish -- it must be a day that ends in "y".

Jul 29, 2009 8:31 PM on Perfection
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

And I just committed the same error by posting before reading Elm's well-stated comment.

Jul 28, 2009 6:03 PM on PECOTA's Strikeouts
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Doubtless it was dinged because his criticism had already been addressed in an earlier comment. Had he bothered to read the comments he wouldn't (or shouldn't) have posted. On the other hand, I almost gave it a +1 since this is the first post I remember seeing by sbirnish in which he isn't bitching about the alleged bias of the BP writers.

Jul 28, 2009 6:01 PM on PECOTA's Strikeouts
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

cjgeisler, I suggest *Jesse "walk-off" Crain*, in the same vein as Hugh "losing pitcher* Mulcahey. Seriously, they may as well bring in Punto or someone to pitch if it's a walk-off situation.

Jul 25, 2009 7:03 PM on It's a Holliday Weekend
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Actually, ESPN says Kennedy may pitch near the end of the season: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4354343

Jul 24, 2009 2:17 PM on Players
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

mhixpgh, the anti-Abreu post is only at -1 as I write, and I assume that's the one you mean. I think some voters will rate a post down if they think it is really stupid, even if it isn't inappropriate (e.g. vulgur or nasty). The ratings are not necessarily all about propriety; the fact that there is a different term to click to report impropriety reflects this.

Jul 22, 2009 1:48 PM on Central Dilemmas
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Watch out royalsnightly, or IraBlum will accuse you of bias against the Rangers, your being a Rangers fan notwithstanding.

Jul 16, 2009 8:59 PM on The Bottom Half
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

Agreed that the analysis of EY Jr is good, but should the Bucs expect to get more for Sanchez? Sanchez himself, it seems to me, often struggles to be a starting MLB 2B. Sure, when he hits .330 he's pretty good, but last year it was .270 without walks, power, or even league-average fielding. With his salary, I'd think a B prospect is all that should come back to Pittsburgh.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Is that a Husker Du reference in the Brandon Wood comment?

Jul 09, 2009 2:31 PM on July 9
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Is that 4:30 eastern or pacific? Above, it says eastern, but on the green banner on the front page, it says 4:30 pacific.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Huh? No thumbs up IS a vote off the island.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't equally unfair to give some authors a free pass to the next round because you didn't read them, and reject others who you did read? I think if you vote without having adequately inspected each article, then there is some unfairness. But in the short time frame, that might still be the best option.

May 27, 2009 8:19 AM on Catching Up
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

Re: Clement, isn't Johjima hurt now, too? Maybe they'll plug Jamie Burke or Glenn Borgmann or someone in there instead.

May 26, 2009 12:33 PM on May 26
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Agreed, Laurila always does that.

May 22, 2009 1:36 PM on More on Contraction
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 2

Delmon Young wasn't benched. He's on compassionate leave from the team, as his mother died.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 1

But hadn't Cox already been a division-winning field manager for the Jays?

May 20, 2009 5:26 PM on October 29-November 5
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Joe, I'm sorry it is raining Baltimore. I look forward to hearing about the evening, though.

May 06, 2009 7:47 PM on Learning the Game
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

Agree with Sheetz and Wick. IIRC, there was no TA-comment even when the Twins signed Mauer and Morneau to long-term deals. Overall, love CK, TA and BP though.

Mar 21, 2009 12:52 PM on Central Obsessions
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

No, that's not what's being projected, although the way it looks is misleading. In the box for counting stats like HR and RBI, they list the player's total for all positions. A majority of Harris' PT (and some of Buscher's) is not at 3B. Pro-rated, they are expecting about 3 HR each at 3B from Harris and Buscher, and about 15 RBI each, making overall 3B production 17 HR and 80 RBI.

Mar 18, 2009 11:05 AM on September 14-20
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -1

Ball Four was a best seller in the early 1970s and detailed the extensive use in baseball of amphetamines. So who knew? Anyone who cared to.

Feb 24, 2009 1:47 PM on The Rush to Judgment
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Jeff Francis is out for the year (Mlb.com reports today)

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

My new favorite player! I was convinced for a moment that Rany had made up this character -- he seems too clever, well-informed and modest to be real.

Feb 10, 2009 1:36 PM on Chris Hayes, Part Two
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Teddyballgame, I was making a generalization, and not claiming that *every* low rated comment was obnoxious. I\'m sure there are exceptions. I agree that politics is bringing out the worst in people, both from the left and the right. People are pretty responsible about the rating system especially when it\'s about baseball. JSeely, These emails aren\'t being suppressed. I, for one, read every email that is designated as below the viewing threshhold -- I pay closer attention to them to see why they were rated lowly. This isn\'t censorship -- this is the way a community has of expressing its displeasure when other members of the community violate a norm of civility.

Jan 22, 2009 2:27 PM on Andy Pratt
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -3

Nobody is being censored. In fact, I think the BP commenters have been pretty good in that they don\'t give low ratings to comments just because they disagree with them. The people who get low ratings tend to be nasty and obnoxious, or who contribute nothing to a rational debate. You can debate those who are willing to engage in debate, but when people use the comment section to throw eggs at people or just vent their rage, low ratings are a reasonable way to show displeasure with that.

Jan 22, 2009 9:52 AM on Andy Pratt
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 4

You get negative ratings when you sound like a jerk. What\'s nice about the BP comments is the civil tone, which you frequently violate, Sundance.

Jan 21, 2009 1:13 PM on Andy Pratt
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 11

Well said, but I have to concede that if Rush Limbaugh were writing the foreward -- hey, he used to work for the Royals! -- I\'d be very depressed.

Jan 21, 2009 8:26 AM on Andy Pratt
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: -2

I love Olbermann, and I\'m glad to see well-connected media people with an interest in BP.

Jan 21, 2009 7:53 AM on Andy Pratt
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I\'m surprised that John thinks the HOF competition for Blyleven and Dawson might be stiffer next year. This year, there was a sure thing (Rickey) and a likely choice (Rice); next year, I think Alomar is the only likely first year selection, and he\'s not a sure thing. I hope Bert\'s percentage goes up at least a few points next year.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

What was the James Joyce joke? I looked back and couldn\'t spot it.

Jan 07, 2009 9:14 AM on Pat Burrell
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Why don\'t you just skip the comment if it is too long? Should be make a limit of 50 comments per article, if we\'re trying to save reading time? (That would\'ve excluded yours.)

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Umm, you mean like the way Ichiro won the MVP in 2001 with 8 HR, or Barry Larkin did in 1995 with 15? Seriously, Pedroia\'s HR count in an MVP season has to be the lamest argument ever for the efficacy of PEDs.

Dec 15, 2008 3:13 PM on The Winter Meetings
 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

I heard today that Rob Neyer got in to the BBWAA, too, so I guess espn.com is one.

 
John Collins
(110)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for a great piece, Joe. How about GM for a day for the Twins? BPers frequently say that the Twins set their goals too low, being satisfied with 85 wins or so. So what should they do?

Dec 03, 2008 11:41 AM on Dodgers
 
John Collins
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Uh, you mean like in 2001 when Ichiro won the MVP with 8 homers, or in 1995, when Barry Larkin won with 15?

Nov 25, 2008 1:48 PM on The Tool of Ignorance
 
John Collins
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Yankees 7/168, 12/15

Nov 11, 2008 11:37 AM on July 2-8
 
John Collins
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Here\'s a question about the blown call where Longoria tagged Rollins: is there any chance that Rollins should be safe on that play anyway, based on obstruction? It looked like Longoria blocked Rollins\' path back to third (before he even had the ball), forcing Rollins to take a more circuitous path back to third. To get an obstruction (or is it interference?) call, would Rollins have needed to actually bump into Longoria, instead of going around him?

Oct 27, 2008 12:18 PM on Judgment Calls
 
John Collins
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In case of emergency

 
John Collins
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Joe, I don\'t understand why you supported moving Lester up to G6. Given that they have to win G6 and G7 to advance, what is the value in increasing their chances to win G6, if it comes at the cost of decreasing their chances of winning G7? Is it just the value of extending the series, while admittedly not increasing their chances of victory, that is so important, or am I missing something else?

Oct 20, 2008 12:58 PM on Keep it Down
 
John Collins
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Scotty B, Well Mauer\'s VORP is (barely) higher than Morneau\'s, and that\'s without crediting him for fielding his postion better than Morneau does. So, no.

 
John Collins
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Evan, This is Aristotelian physics, and has been disproven, centuries ago. Reversal of direction doesn\'t imply that an object was ever still.

 
John Collins
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Bobo Holloman also pitched a no-hitter in his first start, for the Browns back in the 50s.

 
John Collins
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I don\'t think Cuddyer is any threat to get much playing time in September. His foot is still healing, so he can\'t play the field or run the bases. He\'s just getting PH chances.

Sep 15, 2008 11:19 AM on West by Central
 
John Collins
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Andy Marte has had a \"street pizza\" season? I haven\'t heard that term before. Is the analogy that Marte\'s season is as flat as a street pizza, or as undesirable as a street pizza?

Sep 15, 2008 11:10 AM on West by Central
 
John Collins
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Dack21, Couldn\'t the arbitrator rule the deals void, and put the players back in the draft next year? If the after-the-deadline deal was in violation of the CBA, wouldn\'t it be in violation of the CBA to re-open negotiation now? MLB broke the rules, so I think you could justify declaring the players free agents on the same grounds that Travis Lee et al were.

 
John Collins
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Mhixpgh, Do you send your 10-year-old to bed at 8:30? Night games have started at the same time for decades, and I watched them to the end when I was a kid. If you start them too early, then working people will miss part of the games. I think they start at the right time.