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Jung Ho Kang?
Perez is starting over Ishikawa. Not that it matters that much.
His career line of 4.98/1.40 in the postseason argues against any "Big Game" hosannas.
Also Will Carroll said this:
Add in that Fernandez was ill before the game and potentially dehydrated, which can have a massive effect on the body, and no one comes off looking good.
Also see comments in this thread. Some good stuff there. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-fernandez-preventable-or-inevitable/
Check it: http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2013/01/heat-dehydration-and-injury-risk.html
WHAT? No mention at all of the fact he was puking his guts out right before gametime? And management still let him pitch? You forgot a category: Dehydration. Or maybe it should be called, Manager Stupidity.
Thanks for the responses. Btw, I didn't mean I scoffed at the Texas stuff, but that I actually laugh at it (I think?) in the intended way.
Haven't noticed "Texas build," though I have laughed at the general Texas = #rig a priori formula.
Mexicans in the majors include Jaime Garcia, Yovani Gallardo, Oliver Perez, and Joakim Soria. Is there some kind of common body type among them that I'm missing?
Is there a Cuban body type? Dominican? Japanese? Australian? Are there other nationalities or ethnicities that merit similar concern about body types in the teenage years?
Mexican isn't a slur; "Mexican build" is, in its assertion that there is such a thing, which in paraphrasing your words means prone to being out of shape. There are all kinds of Mexicans and to suggest there is a standard physiotype is lazy and insensitive. Trying to couch it in a "scouting context" is just dissembling. Again, is there a "Negro build" in a scouting context?
With all respect, that's horseshit. Does Justin Upton have a Negro build? Can't you just say he has a short, thick build without dancing around racist slurs?
Or maybe he's hiding an injury? What if his crummy mechanics are arising from that?
Great, I've been waiting several years for such an article.
No Willie Mays?!
Waiting patiently for a postmortem!
John Barr joined the Giants in 2007 as head of scouting. While Lincecum was drafted under his predecessor, Bumgarner, Posey, Wheeler, etc. are all Barr's. Both Lincecum and Posey were Golden Spikes award winners, so it's a bit much to credit the team for going after them, but Bumgarner and Wheeler are major credits to Barr's draft philosophy.
Prior to Barr, Sabean had miserable drafts, seemingly out of spite; he even deliberately punted his first-round pick one year by signing the worthless free agent veteran Michael Tucker. It was the blossoming of 2002 draft first-rounder Matt Cain, who made the majors in 2005, that seems to have reminded Sabean of the value of first-round draft picks.
Why isn't [my favorite prospect] on this list?!? *shakes fist
Except that it was equaled by Steamer, which is free.
Thanks for that. I was hoping for some in-house staff postmortem, but this is helpful.
No postmortem? There was a wan midseason reportcard but nothing more. It would be fairest to all potential full-season subscribers to note PECOTA's recent track record, no? Especially as compared to other projection systems. This kind of accountability used to be de rigueur here; will it continue to be?
Was there ever a postmortem on how PECOTA performed for the 2012 season?
Reynolds isn't even the starting third-baseman, Betemit is - though the same point holds.
Kevin Goldstein has suggested Hamilton will end up in CF.
Neil Ramirez is in the Rangers' system, no?
Terrific piece. One quick typo: " the Rangers (Dallas/Ft. Worth) rank fifth at 2,571,310 television homes. Seattle-Tacoma ranks 12th with 2,571,310 television homes."
His career of 57.9% TTO would appear to be a record-setter, though.
Pretty amazing that Mark Reynolds didn't set the TTO record in 2009. 44 HR, 76 BB, 223 K, 578 AB = 59.3%
It would be cool, if Zobrist was actually any good, and not just a roving sub with a fluke career year under his belt.
Also, Maddon's management in the postseason flies in the face of all the stathead hosannas thrown his way. Enough already of his supposed genius.
Nonplussed means bewildered, not unimpressed.
I see the PFM isn't quite ready yet - ETA?
The Rangers also have Tanner Scheppers as a potential bullpen piece.
Sabean tried to overpay Uribe (3/$20M offer), but the Nedster outbid him by $1M - so let's not be too hasty in crediting Sabean for that.
Banking on Sandoval is insane. He did everything he could to eat his way off the roster, even enjoying a breakfast of Cheetos and Mountain Dew during the World Series. They tried to get him in shape last year, remember "Camp Panda" ? Lotta good that did. Even if he is just going to be a bridge to Belt, that's not enough.
Banking on DeRosa is also insane, but what choice to they have? Thanks Brian Sabean! Maybe trading for or signing players KNOWN to be injured isn't such a great idea (he did the same with Freddy Sanchez). Is there any indication that DeRosa's wrist is ok?
What they ought to do is cut Huff, unless you can get him for just one year. Otherwise, he's gone. Also cut or demote the totally worthless Ishikawa, and sign a cheap LaRoche 1B type, anyone league-average to hold down first until Belt is ready.
Vlad's famously loved hitting at Arlington (career 996 OPS there) and had a fairly dramatic home/road split in 2010 (882/797). He also fell off a cliff after a hot May and June, with a 919 OPS before the All-Star break and 748 after. $10 million for that? For a guy who simply cannot play defense? If that's the direction to go, why not get Hideki Matsui for less than half that price?
CarGo is also in the NL triple crown race.
Zobrist is hurt. He missed some time with back pain. It's quite possible he's had some back pain all season, and it's sapping his strength.
I think you mean 2006-07 and not 1996-97, but GREAT piece nonetheless.
Come back Joe. BP is colorless without you.
It would have been interesting to know how many home runs each of the players in your chart ended up hitting by the end of the season.
"I'm telling you, somebody this year is going to hit 30 (home runs)... Might not be me. Maybe it'll be Jacque or Corey (Koskie). All that filet-of-fish swinging? Forget about it. Straight hot links."
--Torii Hunter, Twins center fielder, on the team's new hitting philosophy (St. Paul Pioneer Press)
"Now, to get serious for a moment, what bothers me is that much of this is leaving the game of baseball. With the emphasis on statistics and not people in baseball reporting, with a lessening of contact between players and reporters both in the clubhouse and off the field, relations are not the same and because of it this deep vein of American humor is being lost."
Yeah, and get the hell off my lawn you whippersnappers!
There have been some very funny quotes from today's players; just look up Nyjer Morgan, Adam Dunn, or Torii Hunter if you need material.
Uh, ya think?
How many more times do we have to ask? Is there really no news on Jennings?
Any word on Desmond Jennings? It'd be great to hear what's going on with him and to find out why he isn't playing.
Thanks. And wow, was that a nearly wholly useless piece or what?
Any news on Bumgarner? He had another good outing, 5 IP 1 ER, but I haven't seen anything on his velocity.
Crawford is MORE patient than Jennings? I thought I had read from you previously that it was the other way around.
Chomsky is always right. Both of us.
"I had Julio Teheran moving into the Top 101, which he did."
Gee, no selection bias there, or anything.
Yahoo has a 5/10 starts/games requirement, either/or.
You don't think Youkili's numbers will be very close to Zimmerman's? He's has been a better AVG man and on-base machine, hits in a great lineup, friendly park, etc. He's certainly fatter and more of an injury risk, though perhaps playing all year at first base will mitigate that. I don't see the separation between him and Zimmerman being all that significant.
Bonds v. Gagne (23 PA): .294/.478/.529 (4 IBB, 1 HBP)
Gamel was a 4-star prospect last year -- last year was enough to bump him back down a star?
Ugh, I know this is being annoying, and I am sorry about that. My apologies. I just realized the THR I was looking at was the 2009 one, which I recently downloaded from here:
Perhaps it ought to be taken down?
I just looked again, Jose Reyes is green in the THR spreadsheet I have. So is Delgado.
Jose Reyes is green? Really?
I'm with you, yanks.
And this wouldn't be so annoying, except that the exact same thing happened last year.
It would be shocking. He has been good, and bad, few signs of greatness. To project him over Lincecum? Greinke? Doesn't pass the smell test.
What about Shields being the second-best fantasy starter in baseball?
The numbers make no sense.
Austin Jackson's isn't?
They move out Granderson ($5.5M) and EJax (maybe $5M?), and bring in Scherzer (about $1M), Valverde ($7M?), and AuJax ($400k). Looks cheaper to me, and maybe added them some wins, too?
their vs. there? you?
Grant Desme, with love and squalor.
Baseball has one thing those other sports do not: very heavy restrictions on the salary potential for players during their pre-arbitration years of employment. That is, there is a huge intermediation in the salary structure of baseball, to the owners' huge benefit.
Thome had a 100-point OPS advantage over Martin in that instance (Thome v. LHP > Martin v. RHP). And tactically, bringing in Eyre to face Thome means that Manuel would have been forced to remove Eyre for Blake, who kills lefties. Who would Manuel have turned to there, Lidge? With men on base in a tight game? That would have been an uncomfortable moment for Manuel, but Torre blew it.
But consider this, too. Thome hits for Martin, so Manuel goes to Eyre. That likely makes Manuel replace Eyre with .... Lidge, when Blake gets up? Torre could have made it very uncomfortable in that spot, daring Manuel to use Lidge in a high-leverage situation instead of cruising through a clean 9th with a 5-run lead.
Hey Joe! Jaffe's now in agreement! See comments in his article.
"was he waiting for four men to be on base? "
THAT IS IT. Total spit-take, thanks.
Why would it take "guts" to pinch hit for a washed up, horribly slumping, 7-hole catcher who plays bad defense in a key moment in the 8th inning of the last game of the season?
Sounds like a job for "brains".
Oh, and Jaffe is wrong.
Although it was the shot of Thome in the dugout while Martin went up to "hit", before Thome even got to the ondeck circle, that caused me and mine so much instant impotent fury.
Blake? Why not Martin?
As my cousin said to Sheehan:
Bases juiced, five runs down, five outs left to the year, Madson on the mound, 7th and 8th "hitters" due up by name of Martin and Blake, both of whom were wretched all year v. RHP and even worse against any kind of pitching in the postseason... and there's Thome, warming up his swing in the dugout... in case the pitcher's slot comes up???? It gave me a grand mal Sheehan right there and then, even before the perfunctory and highly predictable instant outs choked off the inning and any chance to make the ninth v. Lidge interesting. File under: Torre, GENIUS.
Torre's real mistake: using Kuo in the 7th against the bottom of the order, and the inferior Sherrill in the 8th against the lefthanded core of the Phillies' lineup.
Sabean and Bochy, what a team.
Hey, what about R. Branyan and the ruptured disc in his back?
Will Carroll gave Delgado, Beltran, and Reyes each "green lights," in his team health assessment before the season.
Is F-Lop Milwaukee's Bob Dylan?
Yeah really. November?? What does that mean?
Feliz also was shelved at least briefly due to soreness in his shoulder. Rotoworld noted on May 8:
Neftali Feliz, who has struggled with his command this season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, will not make his scheduled start Friday after complaining of shoulder soreness.
A doctor told Feliz he has no structural damage. Still, Feliz will be shut down for two or three days at least. An injury could explain his 7.4 walks per nine innings this season.
Actually, I believe you mean Argentinian Malbec. Chile is known for Carmenere.
And now Sheffield has been released. Make that 31.
I was always a Hydran fan, myself.
I'm confused -- is the photo reason to be bullish or bearish on Price?
Looks like the new edition of PFM this weekend finally uses the right projection for Holliday -- he\'s now about the 25th-best bat in standard 5x5 roto.
I mean, you have to be right. The BP 2009 book entry for Holliday says:
If anyone thinks Holliday is going to be able to repeat this kind of production while moving from Colorado to Oakland, that person has another thing coming. In his career, Holliday hit .357/.423/.645 at Coors (roughly Albert Pujols) and .280/.348/.455 on the road (roughly Shane Victorino). Now, he\'s better than Shane Victorino, but do you really think he\'s going to hit .320, and in the stronger league? Do you really think he\'s going to hit 30 bombs? Are you sure about that?
Help me out here, his stats are still totally out of whack -- they are about his 90% PECOTA line, see the player cards.
Yeah really, I\'m still perplexed by Holliday. Under \"Projected Playing Time,\" his line is:
While his 90% PECOTA line just below that is:
Something is clearly wrong here.
\"NEARLY EVERY PLAYER hits better at home.\"
Tell that to the Padres. Home/road splits in 2008:
You get the picture.
Park effects matter.
I\'m still not a believer in Holliday. Here\'s a guy who has hit .803 OPS outside of Coors for his career, and who is going to a terrible hitter\'s park and to the tougher league, and he\'s projected to have a 921 OPS this year? Something\'s funny here.
Ok, so PFM was updated today, and it now shows Holliday as an Oakland A. I simply don\'t believe the projection. How is a guy with a career OPS outside of Coors just barely north of .800 going to hit .327 in Oakland, one of the worst hitter\'s parks in the tougher league??
\"Damon, Jeter, Posada, Nady, Cano all look extremely low. \"
You need PECOTA to tell you that???
Forive the tortured metaphor, but since the SALT II accords, there have been a few notable defections between the two powers since the Candyman moved north (Jeff Kent, Dusty Baker even), but few as potentially sweet as Manny. The only problem from Giants fans\' perspective is, should they get Manny and make the playoffs, it would give Brian Sabean job security by making him look like the genius he isn\'t.
The analysis around Furball/Manny, and whether it would make more sense to punt on Furball and use that money to sign Manny is so right on.... except that it\'s built around a logical fallacy, that is, that the Duds can\'t afford both. Of course they can; they made the big two-year offer to Manny and as far as we know it still stands, and he\'d be a Dud today if it weren\'t for Boras\'s total miscalculation of the market. He may yet still be one.
Isn\'t Hicks also a Clear Channel guy? His companies were merged into Clear Channel, and he served on its board.
Debunked. From rotoworld:
Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn\'t had any discussions with the White Sox regarding Jermaine Dye or anyone else since before Thanksgiving.
Everyone is denying that there\'s any truth at all to Hal McCoy\'s report of a done deal involving Dye and Homer Bailey, and there\'s no reason to think they\'re all bluffing. McCoy was pretty clearly working off some bad info.