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Thanks for thinking deeply about the Padres and sharing your thoughts.
The <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=HOU" target="blank">Houston Astros</a></span> seem to have made it work pretty well. If/when they win again, fans will (most likely) have short memories.
Best of luck at ESPN, Sam. I will miss your work at BP, but will try to visit you often at your new place.
And way to bury the lede. Congrats to Aaron on his new role.
If <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> tends to have higher median performance then mean performance, I can make money by always betting on the over.
I'm wondering if this has to do with a tails issue, where the mean performance estimate for the typical player is is lower than the median performance estimate. Any chance you looked into this?
Thanks Joshua, I appreciate your sharing your take on this. I hadn't really thought about the possible cost outside of the sideshow.
Is Verlander still slated for 2 starts? He shows as the Tuesday starter and they have an off day next Thursday.
Please come to Texas too!
I look forward to finding out if the machines have already won. Thanks for your insightful analysis.
Nevermind. Yours is better. I missed the last entry
Shouldn't it be the Los Angeles Indians of Anaheim?
To resolve this injustice, You could purge anyone from the voter list that has not logged into their BP account in the past 10 years.
Thanks and keep up the good work!
Interesting. I do think you may be looking at the real estate cost in the wrong way. It may make more sense to evaluate what it would cost annually to rent out a facility of the same size. Alternatively, I assume teams that did purchase the facilities would probably be able to finance a large portion of the cost, so you could evaluate the annual cost of financing along with the cost of operations. I expect the total annual cost per affiliate would be significantly less. than $5 million.
I also wonder if the best place for a test case would be at the lower levels, because of the players' youth. Cost to implement is probably less in those markets too.
In my opinion, Cleveland has the best comment today, and possibly my favorite so far this year.
I'm interested in what <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45578">Anibal Sanchez</a></span>'s value was compared to some of the guys you selected, as he seems like he'd be in your <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> scare bucket.
Will you be putting this podcast on Itunes?
Nice work guys! I look forward to digging into it.
Are there any other Nights at the Park forthcoming?
Curiouser and curiouser. Thanks for the thought exercise.
Small note. An insured bond might default, not depreciate. Otherwise, I thoroughly enjoyed this article.
When should we expect the Scherzer writeup?
Is it me, or does the picture of Julio Urias make it look like he has a shiner?
It is interesting to me that Larry Walker received fewer votes than Edgar Martinez. I'd be interested in hearing why gtim those who chose Martinez over Walker.
Thanks for the update. I'm glad to hear there is some Rymer reason to the moves of the new Padres brass.
As a ballpark, what share of your clients come as referrals and what share come from scouting? Also, do you generally have a higher hit rate with the referrals or does it matter?
When does Polanco pass the super 2 threshold?
How long until he crosses the super 2 threshold?
How long is it until Polanco passes the super2 cutoff?
Is Martin Perez still scheduled for two starts?
Will you be doing a top 100 overall at the end of this series?
Back in the day, the player cards had pecota 10%, 25%, 75%, and 90% projections. I really miss that. Is there a reason y'all removed them?
1996 and 1997 with Toronto
After checking Joe Carter's player card, I only see 2 "yuni" seasons, both late in his career. What am I missing with Joe?
I'd be interested.
Interesting analysis. I liked what you did with the contracts you evaluated. It felt like you rushed through the second half of the analysis (players closer to free agency). Has that portion been covered in a separate article? If so, could you add a hyperlink?
10 years for a catcher seems like a risky commitment, even for one as talented as Posey.
Looking forward to seeing y'all in Arlington.
Is Blackly still a 2 start pitcher this coming week? MLB shows Millone and Parker going Monday and Tuesday for the A's.
Read the OV piece on SI. Thanks for both of these; well done.
At first, I found the SI comments hilarious. Unfortunately, I didn't quit soon enough. It was so bad by the time I quit reading (couldn't make it through the whole list) that I was quite revolted.
I have no tolerance for the whole "science = bad" BS, which is how much of it came off.
You do (or did) have a vote...
Informative and entertaining. Thanks!
I don't think it's that easy to dig up a 3 win player. If it was, replacement level would be 3 wins higher.
Seems like a reasonable deal. Probably a bit more than he'll be worth, but the combination of price and length seems reasonable, given the player. Besides, as good as Hamilton is, I don't know if I'd expect him to give a lot more in terms of total wins than Ethier over the next 5-6 years, given the potential for injury. This seems like the lower risk option.
Funny how time flys. My first reaction to the 25 and under was "where's Scherzer." I guess the answer is over the hill at 27.
Great, thanks! I must have missed it.
I remember reading this (and enjoying it) when it was first published. Nice to see some entertaining old pieces getting brushed off.
Will y'all be putting up some of the seminal pieces such as McCracken's BABIP article (I assume you will)?
Great article. Thanks!
Thoroughly enjoyable article.
Methinks Riccardi needs a better options pricing model.
Heh. Isn't "Thou shalt use a WACC of 10%" the 11th commandment? I think it gets left out sometimes because of the popularity of top 10 lists.
There's also the fact that any comparison of multiple similar players would tend towards "average," even for all-time greats. What 10 comps could he have that would end up with an expected HR total over 700?
Me too. I bet many of the people reading this article drafted them.
The Helton walk in the 1st inning would have been a foul-out, if not for the sun. It would have been a 17 pitch inning - not bad.
Anything worth printing on Jay Bruce?
How have you managed that feat?
It wasn\'t too long ago that we were having a similar conversation about Jose Reyes.
Thanks for all the tasty new bits!