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Prospectus Hit List for September 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 29 Hit List for September 5
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Featuring no terribly offensive Rockies comments that might have been submitted but edited out.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

80

57

77.1

75.9

76.0

.564

.583

99.1%

0.4%

99.5%

-0.1%

1.8%

The Orioles have the biggest divisional lead in baseball, is the title of my book about how computers are always wrong.
2

78

59

80.6

80.1

79.6

.581

.561

98.5%

1.2%

99.7%

-0.1%

0.6%

Does a bear poop in the woods? Heck, is Stephen Strasburg an ace?
3

83

54

80.7

84.2

83.8

.605

.624

89.7%

10.2%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.2%

The Angels have the best record in baseball and their presumptive Game 2 playoff starter has a 4.66 ERA and gave up five runs in 3.1 innings last night. Duck! Incoming Scioscia Face from 2,000 miles away!
4

78

61

76.4

80.2

78.5

.563

.543

74.2%

25.5%

99.8%

1.1%

0.6%

The Dodgers and Hanley Ramirez have failed at extending Ramirez’s contract, which makes it the second thing about Ramirez the Dodgers couldn't extend (after his range).
5

75

63

68.5

71.5

71.4

.519

.499

71.5%

13.7%

85.2%

7.4%

7.1%

The best shortstop so far this season by BWARP is Jhonny Peralta. He is also the best sohrtstop but that goes without saying.
6

76

62

73.8

75.5

74.4

.543

.563

60.1%

21.3%

81.4%

2.7%

17.0%

Last season Justin Verlander didn’t allow a run in eight of his 34 starts. This season he’s… still dating Kate Upton!
7

76

61

71.2

65.9

66.4

.510

.530

36.8%

30.5%

67.3%

2.3%

-2.9%

The Royals are still in first place because, A) Alex Gordon catches literally everything, B) it’s opposite year, C) they’re good, or D) A, B, D, E and every other letter except C
8

76

63

77.2

78.9

77.9

.558

.538

25.8%

67.7%

93.5%

5.2%

27.3%

Down 6-0 in the fifth inning, the Giants didn’t give up. The Giants never give up. They are a professional baseball team. They are paid to not give up and to keep playing baseball.
9

73

65

69.8

69.1

68.7

.508

.488

23.0%

33.5%

56.4%

-2.9%

-33.1%

If you had Khris Davis as the best chris davis in baseball you win the Chris Davis Award for projecting Chris Davises.
10

79

59

85.9

85.3

85.2

.608

.627

10.2%

88.8%

99.0%

-0.5%

-0.2%

Adam Dunn is hitting .750/.800/1.500 with Oakland which is like adding up all the A’s slash lines together over the last three weeks and then adding .750/.800/1.500.
11

71

67

70.0

72.4

73.2

.519

.499

5.4%

21.3%

26.7%

-3.7%

-3.6%

The Pirates in a nutshell: Three best hitters worth over 15 WARP combined, three best pitchers worth over two WARP combined!
12

70

66

69.2

68.8

67.7

.507

.527

3.1%

7.7%

10.8%

-7.0%

2.2%

The Indians: just good enough that we can’t count them out yet, just bad enough to keep forgetting I can’t count them out yet.
13

72

67

71.3

70.0

70.0

.510

.490

1.5%

34.8%

36.4%

-6.8%

2.8%

The Braves have played 18 innings this month and they have four hits. And if you don’t count playing “Louie Louie” over the loudspeaker, it’s three.
14

70

66

64.4

63.9

64.2

.483

.503

0.6%

2.3%

3.0%

-3.2%

-4.2%

The Yankees will wear a Derek Jeter patch through the remainder of the season, raising the question ‘Did Derek Jeter die?,’ which raises the answer, ‘Statistically, yes.’
15

70

67

68.9

69.5

69.1

.506

.526

0.2%

1.8%

2.0%

0.6%

1.1%

After five straight games with a homer, I have a question for you, Jose Bautista: if you like home runs so much, why don’t you marry them?
16

66

72

70.0

65.5

66.4

.485

.465

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Cincinnati has six players with OBPs above .311. Two are pitchers, two are third baseman (can’t play at the same time), one is Joey Votto who has played 62 games, and one is Devin Mesoraco. All hail Devin Mesoraco!
17

74

63

79.6

76.7

76.4

.560

.579

0.1%

36.9%

37.0%

5.5%

-15.0%

Fernando Rodney saved his 40th game, shot an invisible arrow into the sky, drove home in an invisible car, then ate an invisible dinner while watching an invisible TV and changing the channel with an invisible remote. That's dedication.
18

60

79

60.0

60.3

61.7

.435

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Having been relieved of his job managing the Astros, Bo Porter is reportedly going back to his old job as a bow porter.
19

53

85

55.0

51.5

53.3

.386

.405

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rangers won 91 games last season. To win 91 this year, they’d need to add an extra 74 games to the regular season.
20

67

72

70.7

75.2

75.0

.518

.538

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.1%

Evan Longoria’s OPS is 130 points lower than his career average (it’s 154 points lower if you don’t count this season’s numbers in his career average but why be rude?).
21

61

77

61.5

62.7

63.5

.451

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jonny Gomes is fourth on this season’s Red Sox home run list and he was a part-time outfielder before they traded him a month ago.
22

63

75

61.3

61.9

61.5

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Which event is more unlikely: 1) Tyler Flowers hit two home runs, or 2) that MLB.com did not mention the phrase “Flower Power?”
23

66

71

65.9

62.1

62.6

.468

.449

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

Now that the new regime is in charge, Padres fans can look forward to a quiet offseason of low-budget spending on third and fourth rate free agents. Hooray for change!
24

63

76

64.2

69.7

69.5

.479

.459

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jorge Soler has seven extra-base hits in 19 plate appearances. Over a full season, that projects to 239 extra base hits. PECOTA is getting sick just thinking about it.
25

64

74

63.1

63.7

64.8

.463

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ruben Amaro received a vote of confidence from the team president, which is like being offered a special seat in one of the private tubes hanging from the wing of a 747.
26

65

74

67.9

62.7

62.9

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.3%

The Mets will get really good when everyone gets healthy and starts playing up to their abilities. Ha ha ha ha!
27

55

84

60.6

62.0

59.2

.426

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The starter was Lyles, followed by the reliever Belisle; OK, I've spotted the verb, I've conjugated it, but what's it mean? It can't be good...
28

57

81

58.0

58.6

58.3

.420

.401

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It’s surprising, with the end of the season upon us, and given his penchant for making changes at the end of things, that Tony La Russa hasn’t taken out Kirk Gibson as manager.
29

67

70

65.6

65.4

64.9

.480

.460

0.0%

1.3%

1.3%

-0.2%

-1.6%

Giancarlo Stanton’s 35 homers have traveled a combined total of 2.76 miles or 2,912 Altuves.
30

60

78

63.8

62.9

62.7

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2007: The Twins can only compete if they get a new ballpark. 2014: The Twins can only compete if they get two new ballparks.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
Shaun P.

"Giancarlo Stanton’s 35 homers have traveled a combined total of 2.76 miles or 2,912 Altuves."

It's facts like these that keep me a dedicated Hit List reader.

Sep 03, 2014 09:38 AM
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+2

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StefanAFrisch

Yankees comment is best of the season (so far).

Sep 03, 2014 11:53 AM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Sep 03, 2014 15:50 PM
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0

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