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Prospectus Hit List for August 25



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 22 Hit List for August 27
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

One of these jokes is not like the others. Another of these jokes is not like the others. A third one, too, is not like the others. None of these jokes are like any of the others, actually.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

70

59

63.6

67.8

67.5

.521

.501

41.7%

33.4%

75.1%

-2.5%

10.1%

Someone should tell Justin Masterson that, while the National League is backward and ridiculous, pitchers still want to keep runs off the board there.
2

68

63

68.0

66.5

66.7

.514

.494

1.9%

39.4%

41.3%

-3.1%

7.6%

Tommy La Stella’s OPS is 110 points higher than Dan Uggla’s was. And also you can yell” La Stellaaaaaaaaaaa!!” when he comes to the plate.
3

72

57

68.5

62.1

63.2

.515

.535

57.2%

15.6%

72.8%

-8.7%

5.0%

Should Alex Gordon be MVP over Mike Trout? Yes, according to the alphabet!
4

71

58

77.3

74.7

74.2

.576

.595

1.1%

55.6%

56.7%

3.3%

2.5%

How bad are Seattle’s hitters? The Mariners lead baseball in Defensive Efficiency and are seventh in pitcher VORP, yet they’re in third place, six games out. Answer: Not good!
5

68

61

68.6

69.3

68.8

.529

.509

14.8%

50.0%

64.8%

-0.6%

2.1%

Jeremy Affeldt allowed four runs without retiring a batter, yet he got the loss even though his team lost by eight runs, so he could have not existed and nothing would have been different.
6

75

54

76.8

76.3

75.4

.588

.569

98.1%

1.6%

99.7%

0.3%

2.0%

Stephen Strasburg didn’t pitch well yesterday but he also didn’t hit a little girl in the head with a warmup pitch so call it a successful night.
7

73

55

70.3

69.1

69.3

.550

.570

93.3%

1.2%

94.5%

-1.0%

1.6%

Do best-in-the-AL teams lose three in a row to the Cubs? Not after those three losses, no.
8

74

58

71.6

74.9

73.3

.557

.537

85.2%

13.1%

98.3%

-0.1%

0.7%

When people complain about Yasiel Puig they cite stuff like running into the third out of a triple play and ignore stuff like leading the Dodgers in WARP. I’ll let you decide which is more important.
9

77

52

75.1

79.3

78.6

.601

.620

62.8%

37.0%

99.7%

0.1%

0.6%

Mike Trout’s on-base percentage has fallen 59 points compared to last season, lending credence to a 92-foot-bases conspiracy theory.
10

52

77

57.9

60.5

57.8

.440

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Is there a less likely event than the Rockies winning all their remaining 33 games and making the playoffs? [/looks out window /sees flying elephant] Nope.
11

50

79

50.2

48.1

50.0

.384

.403

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Playing J.P. Aencibia at first base is the ‘We need Yuniesky Betancourt’s bat in the lineup so we’re putting him at first’ of 2014.
12

55

76

56.2

55.3

57.0

.427

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I’m telling you Astros reliever Michael Foltynewicz has given up two homers in 10 innings so I can tell you he will never have a career working for 24-hour cable news.
13

58

72

57.2

56.7

57.7

.442

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

For Halloween you’re not going to want to go to Ruben Amaro’s house unless you have $26 million (and even then you probably won’t want to).
14

55

76

55.1

56.0

55.6

.423

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Being on the losing end of an MLB.com headine that uses the words “Padres” and “Power” not just in the same sentence but following one another is so 2014 Diamondbacks.
15

58

72

59.8

64.9

64.9

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Javier Baez is on pace to hit 57 homers and strike out 292 times.
16

58

72

61.3

60.9

60.7

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Twins pitchers walked eight Tiger hitters. Revolution is in the air!
17

56

74

56.8

58.0

58.8

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

David Ortiz is just four homers, one RBI, and about 100 points of batting average away from winning the Triple Crown!
18

66

63

66.2

66.2

65.2

.511

.531

3.2%

3.7%

6.8%

1.0%

-0.1%

“Nine strikeouts, three walks, no runs for Trevor Bauer last night,” said the sign pulled by the airplane flying over Chase Field in Phoenix.
19

76

53

81.8

80.4

80.1

.617

.636

36.2%

62.9%

99.1%

-0.4%

-0.1%

Scott Kazmir gave up seven runs in three innings, a fact that would have been less surprising six months ago, far less surprising six years ago, and then far more surprising six years before that.
20

59

71

57.5

57.5

57.1

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

The Good News: Chris Sale went six innings Sunday, allowing no earned runs to lower his league-leading ERA. The Bad News: The rest of the game.
21

61

70

64.7

60.4

60.7

.471

.451

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.4%

The Mets turned a triple play yesterday and there’s the first highlight for the 2014 Mets Highlights DVD!
22

60

69

62.7

58.1

58.5

.464

.444

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.7%

The Padres are 28-25 since firing Josh Byrnes, proving once again that firing the GM can kickstart a team from last place to who-cares-they’re-still-not-making-the-playoffs.
23

70

59

67.6

69.6

68.7

.535

.555

39.6%

18.7%

58.3%

6.0%

-1.3%

If the Tigers can score 13 runs each night, they can move Max Scherzer to the bullpen and solve all their problems at once!
24

64

66

67.8

72.8

72.5

.533

.553

0.9%

0.7%

1.5%

0.5%

-1.8%

James Loney’s .715 OPS, while three percent above average today, is six percent below average for people who have been pretending to be asleep since 2004.
25

67

61

60.2

60.0

60.4

.484

.504

4.4%

3.3%

7.8%

0.5%

-2.0%

If Brian McCann hadn’t hit a game-winning three-run homer and instead grounded out, do you think Jon Sterling would have belted out "McCann can’t!”
26

64

65

62.1

62.0

61.3

.483

.463

0.0%

2.8%

2.8%

-0.7%

-3.0%

Jeff Mathis is hitting .205/.270/.288, which keeps Mike Scioscia up nights covered in sweat on the other side of the country.
27

66

64

65.0

65.1

64.7

.502

.522

1.4%

1.3%

2.7%

-1.3%

-4.3%

I looked it up and it’s true, reliever Aaron Loup throws a curveball, and guess what kind it is!
28

72

58

68.6

68.2

68.0

.533

.513

53.2%

34.4%

87.6%

7.1%

-4.4%

An open letter to Alex Gordon and the MVP voters: Dear dudes, ‘sup? Check FRAA because I’m mic dropping on you dopes. –Jean Segura
29

63

68

66.2

62.1

62.9

.485

.465

0.1%

1.2%

1.3%

0.9%

-5.9%

It doesn’t make sense that the Reds are behind Miami in the playoff standings but nobody is saying they should trade Giancarlo Stanton.
30

67

63

65.8

67.3

68.3

.516

.496

4.9%

23.8%

28.7%

-1.5%

-8.1%

Vance Worley's strikeout rates, by season: 8.3, 8.1, 7.3, 4.6, 6.3. Guess which year he spent with the Twins.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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